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Remind me why I drafted Megatron over (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ppierce
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JHuber77
Footballguy
What would you say if Stafford ends up playing in week 3 or 4? Reports are that Staffords should did not suffer a torn labrum so all he needs is the range of motion to come back and be willing to play through some pain. The fact is if Megatron played for any other team, the guy would be the consensus #1 pick bar none. At 6'5" he towers over DB's. Also would have had a nice point total for week 1 had the NFL not had a stupid rule in place. Besides, if you had a bad feeling about taking him at #2, you shouldn't have taken him. This site is for reference only. Not intended to be the tell all of all fantasy leagues.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Then trade him to someone who knows how good he is.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I'm as big a fan of Calvin as you'll find (from a fantasy perspective), but the OP has a point (not on the ranking, just the expectation).
Every year we all rave over the specimen, saying he can't be stopped. But every year he's stopped far too often. None of it may be his fault, but he is where he is, and it's not going to change any time soon. So at some point you have to start drafting him for what he is doing rather than what he should be doing. While Stafford was still in there, Johnson had basically no production in the entire first half against a fairly suspect defense. It's a little scary for a guy who is generally considered one of the best receivers in the game.
All that said, there is a little hope in the fact that Andre Johnson was fairly "over-valued" in similar circumstances for several years before he finally started to dominate for good. It's just hard to tell when that breakthrough is really going to take place. Could be next week, could be next year.
Every year we all rave over the specimen, saying he can't be stopped. But every year he's stopped far too often. None of it may be his fault, but he is where he is, and it's not going to change any time soon. So at some point you have to start drafting him for what he is doing rather than what he should be doing. While Stafford was still in there, Johnson had basically no production in the entire first half against a fairly suspect defense. It's a little scary for a guy who is generally considered one of the best receivers in the game.
All that said, there is a little hope in the fact that Andre Johnson was fairly "over-valued" in similar circumstances for several years before he finally started to dominate for good. It's just hard to tell when that breakthrough is really going to take place. Could be next week, could be next year.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Dropped one, got screwed on one.......same outcome. Calvin will be fine.
two_dollars
Footballguy
I was absolutely baffled to watch Calvin and Fitz go off the board, letting Miles fall to me. I mean, I just don't see why people get so stuck looking at ceilings in the very early rounds when the floor can also be so low.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I don't remember a drop?
He caught one early in the game where his right foot was out of bounds by about a millimeter.We can play the "what if" game all we want, but Calvin should have had 5/70/1, and could have easily had 6/90/2.Shaun Hill targeted him consistently in the second half. I'm not too worried about his prospects going forward. If Hill gets hurt and he's faced with the debacle that is Drew Stanton then I'll worry.
Todem
Footballguy
Passed him for Roddy White...and did not bat an eye. No question about his talent. But huge questions about potential production. I was geting some real flack for this by some when I posted that 2 weeks ago. Glad I did it.
Give me the guy with the better team and QB every time.
Give me the guy with the better team and QB every time.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
It's week one.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
they wouldnt't take that. In what dynasty league is an aging superstar worth better than a young one.
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rocketsauce
Footballguy
No clue why you would either. Calvin is a boom or bust. Sure, he can get you 10 for 180 and 1 or 2 TDs on any given week, but he's just as likely to get you 4 for 40. That isn't gonna cut it from your 1st/2nd round pick. In the 1st two rounds, I tend to gravitate towards consistency, or at least non-bustability.
In my PPR I passed on Moss to make Miles Austin the 2nd WR drafted, and then passed on Calvin in the 2nd to take Roddy White as my #2. After 1 week, obviously feeling great. But we'll see down the road. Moss & Calvin will have their big games, but they'll also have their super quiet ones.
The only way I'd want Calvin is if I had a lock at my other WR position. Say you have Roddy, you know you're getting the targets every week, and hopefully 8 catches. Thats a good spot to have a guy like Calvin, who can then win your week for you. One of the guys in my league has Moss & Calvin, and that just seems suicidal to me. They might score the most points of any tandem at the end of the year, but he'll probably be 6-6 because of the rises and falls.
In my PPR I passed on Moss to make Miles Austin the 2nd WR drafted, and then passed on Calvin in the 2nd to take Roddy White as my #2. After 1 week, obviously feeling great. But we'll see down the road. Moss & Calvin will have their big games, but they'll also have their super quiet ones.
The only way I'd want Calvin is if I had a lock at my other WR position. Say you have Roddy, you know you're getting the targets every week, and hopefully 8 catches. Thats a good spot to have a guy like Calvin, who can then win your week for you. One of the guys in my league has Moss & Calvin, and that just seems suicidal to me. They might score the most points of any tandem at the end of the year, but he'll probably be 6-6 because of the rises and falls.
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footballnerd
Footballguy
1300 yds 12 TDs with Dan Orlovsky at QB, he doesn't need a Manning to get it done.
coachbobbyfinstock
Footballguy
Keep in mind last year not only was CJ affected by Staffords injury, but he was also dealing with injuries himself. In 08 (his biggest year) he played with 3 different QBs (Culpepper, Kitna and Orlovsky) and still went apesh*t. So, barring injury, don't worry about CJ-he is an unstoppable force of nature.
Interesting post, good job on the draft. That said, you really think Roddy is going to get 8 catches a week and doesn't have bad games? White has had 83, 88 and 85 receptions the last three years. That is just over 5 per game. 8 per game is record breaking, not a consistent top WR.Austin had a great year last year but also had 6 games in your 4 for 40 or worse range. White had 7 games last year in that range or worse. AJ, who had the best year (PPR, especially) last year still had 4 of those games. Moss had around 6 of those games as well, so it happens and will always happen to the top 5 WRs.So, you had a great week 1, but would you rather have Roddy or AJ who only had 3 for 33 for the rest of this year? Roddy had a great game as Pittsburgh's D shut down Turner and AJ had a bad game because the Colts couldn't stop my mom. Unless they play those teams all 16 games, trying to take week 1 as gold is premature. I would rather have AJ the rest of the year.rocketsauce said:
cmv5
Footballguy
Even I am getting sick of making excuses for him but week one is not the time to write something like this. I see another one on this page about Pierre Garcon. At least wait until week 4
I think the intention of this game was to show Chicago and other teams that if they are going to leave seven in the box, they will beat them offensively with their other weapons, in this specific case, via the run. Well, that didn't work and when the game stayed as close as it was, the Lions kept it conservative. I admit being disappointed in their lack of flexibility when the run game was failing, but when the Lions started to lose, they went to the guy they could depend on. Look, if it wasn't for a bad call, this conversation wouldn't be happening.
God, this board is so fair-weather. Chad Ochocinco for Calvin Johnson in a dynasty league? Child please.
I think the intention of this game was to show Chicago and other teams that if they are going to leave seven in the box, they will beat them offensively with their other weapons, in this specific case, via the run. Well, that didn't work and when the game stayed as close as it was, the Lions kept it conservative. I admit being disappointed in their lack of flexibility when the run game was failing, but when the Lions started to lose, they went to the guy they could depend on. Look, if it wasn't for a bad call, this conversation wouldn't be happening.
God, this board is so fair-weather. Chad Ochocinco for Calvin Johnson in a dynasty league? Child please.
Todem
Footballguy
BS don't give me week one on that. Calvin has had one very good year thus far out of 3. Roddy White is working on his 4th year of very strong production and may in fact have his career year in 2010.Grahamburn said:
I am the last one to overreact in week one. Playing this game for 20 years. But when you have guys drafted high that have proven almost nothing (Shonne Greene Calvin Johnson one truly top flight year) then you have to be nervous. It's not like they have been doing "it" consistently for a few years. calvin Johnson is an amazing talent....no doubt. But 2 out of his three years have been sub par. And yes year one he was a rookie. But he was hurt, then last year he had nagging injuries too. Red flags all over this guy thus far.
So again do you draft a consistent #1 WR or a guy who may be top 3 but can easily finish out of the top 15. It's your money do what you want.
Come on man.
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It's funny since you name those two. In my PPR keeper league where we keep 7 players at no cost (this was the start of the league so all players were on the board), i had the last pick in a 12 team draft, so with my 12/13 i picked Fitz and Megatron over Austin. So you think i made a mistake? I doubt it. 1 game is obviously too early to make any sort of conclusion, but the reason i picked those other 2 was their ceiling. This is a keeper league, and i'm expecting Fitz/Mega to be top notch for years to come. I think Austin will be very good as well, but he doesn't have anywhere close to the talent level of the other two. His value is in large part due to situation.So yeah, i would much rather have Calvin/Fitz over Austin, and it's not really close.two_dollars said:
Let me add another "it's week freaking ONE" statements to the mix.
If you actually watched the game, there really is very little to be concerned about. The Lions were very clearly trying out their new toy, Jahvid Best, during the first half of the game. They obviously entered with a very conservative gameplan and were force feeding the run. Even with that hampering him, Calvin still NEARLY had a TD, almost making a catch just about every other receiver in the league would have had no chance on. They then muddled through the 2nd half, with the injury to Stafford keeping their gameplan very conservative due to the fact that they were actually still winning the game and obviously weren't too keen on taking unecessary chances with a QB who wasn't expecting to be in the game. Fast forward to when they fell behind and Calvin went from almost no stats to 40 yards in the blink of an eye...and he SHOULD have had 70 yards and a TD.
If you want to jump ship on him, be my guest, however I think you would be making a mistake. If we are seeing these same statlines 4, 5, or 6 weeks into the season, then we can talk...but 1 week does not a bust make (Andre Johnson had a WORSE game last week and I don't see anyone freaking out over that).
If you actually watched the game, there really is very little to be concerned about. The Lions were very clearly trying out their new toy, Jahvid Best, during the first half of the game. They obviously entered with a very conservative gameplan and were force feeding the run. Even with that hampering him, Calvin still NEARLY had a TD, almost making a catch just about every other receiver in the league would have had no chance on. They then muddled through the 2nd half, with the injury to Stafford keeping their gameplan very conservative due to the fact that they were actually still winning the game and obviously weren't too keen on taking unecessary chances with a QB who wasn't expecting to be in the game. Fast forward to when they fell behind and Calvin went from almost no stats to 40 yards in the blink of an eye...and he SHOULD have had 70 yards and a TD.
If you want to jump ship on him, be my guest, however I think you would be making a mistake. If we are seeing these same statlines 4, 5, or 6 weeks into the season, then we can talk...but 1 week does not a bust make (Andre Johnson had a WORSE game last week and I don't see anyone freaking out over that).
Todem
Footballguy
I don't think the point of the OP was that. It was why did he take him over Reggie Wayne and Roddy White (which I would never do).
If you drafted Calvin your starting him each and every week. You can't jump ship. I don't think Calvin will be bad, or even average he is an awesome player. I just don't think he warrents being picked ahead of Wayne and White at this stage of the game. Certain guys are $$ and Wayne and White the last 2-3 years have been $$$
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Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Calvin Gets that TD call and he has a very good week. Roddy had a great week But had 23Targets... Thats insane I would still rayher have Calvin.
az_prof
Footballguy
I feel the same way. There may be a season when Calvin is worth a first or second round pick, but not yet. With your WR1 you need a player who can be counted on, assuming good health, to be a top 20 fantasy producer. I don't see how anyone can feel certain of that with Calvin on the Lions at this point.Todem said:
Resident A
Footballguy
With Shaun Hill at QB, I see Calvin a lot like Steve Smith (Car). Will see a ton of targets, capable of big games, but will have some brutal ones due to a crappy QB throwing 3-4 picks. Megatron is no better than a WR2 with Hill under center.
FWIW, I had the same injury as Stafford (grade 2 AC separation) & it was at least 2 months before I could throw anything without major pain. I didn't have NFL-caliber doctors, physical therapists, or painkillers, but I don't see Stafford being back in less than 4-5 weeks. Even then, he'll probably have lingering issues.
FWIW, I had the same injury as Stafford (grade 2 AC separation) & it was at least 2 months before I could throw anything without major pain. I didn't have NFL-caliber doctors, physical therapists, or painkillers, but I don't see Stafford being back in less than 4-5 weeks. Even then, he'll probably have lingering issues.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
Even Chad himself would make that trade for CJ
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
Huge overreaction, imo. It's week 1. The only wr I had ranked over CJ in the preseason was AJ and that's the only wr I would trade him for straight up right now.
Speaking of Andre Johnson, remind me again why I drafted him over Wayne and White in one of my leagues?
Speaking of Andre Johnson, remind me again why I drafted him over Wayne and White in one of my leagues?
Hank Mardukas
Footballguy
I know it's college, but Johnson had 15 TDs in his senior year at GaTech with Reggie Ball - maybe the worst D-1 starting QB of all time (44% completion) - throwing to him. He was double and triple teamed consistently and still had 15 TDs. Johnson is a freak and as long as he's healthy he'll put up stats.
maxwelledison
Footballguy
Due to his size/speed/body-type combination some owners are going to give Calvin Johnson the benefit of the doubt far longer than they should. Reading between the lines it's easy to spot these types. In their minds he's FF royalty though his annual production doesn't warrant it.
two_dollars
Footballguy
It's my philosophy that you can't have a consistent receiver without a consistent quarterback. Ceilings are great in theory.
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
Because some people will always fall in love with raw talent and not realize the situation and surrounding case matters a lot too.... the risk to Calvin Johnson is huge and his upside is nothing compared to Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss; Larry Fitz etc
If EVERYTHING goes well for Calvin, which means his QB stays healthy (which has not happened - see last year and this year), he stays healthy (which has not happened in the past), even then his proiduction will be very similar to all other WRs in that tier.....
Now, even if one thing goes wrong, which is the more likely scenario, his production will suffer.
OTOH, Reggie Wayne never gets injured and his QB never gets injured. His team always throws for 250+ yards every game. And Reggie gets his share from it every single game. Sure his stats will suffer some games; all WRs have dud games, but in general, you do not have to stress anything like you have to with Calvin every week
If EVERYTHING goes well for Calvin, which means his QB stays healthy (which has not happened - see last year and this year), he stays healthy (which has not happened in the past), even then his proiduction will be very similar to all other WRs in that tier.....
Now, even if one thing goes wrong, which is the more likely scenario, his production will suffer.
OTOH, Reggie Wayne never gets injured and his QB never gets injured. His team always throws for 250+ yards every game. And Reggie gets his share from it every single game. Sure his stats will suffer some games; all WRs have dud games, but in general, you do not have to stress anything like you have to with Calvin every week
Exactly, 1 week, and Rod Dog will not get 20+ targets every week. That TD catch goes down, and this thread doesn't even start. I got no beef with Megatron....yet.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
The only time he hasn't produced at a top 5 level is when he's been injured.- His rookie year he was injured early and negatively affected by it all year.- 2nd year he was healthy and a top 5 wr.- 3rd year he was injured again.- 4th year he's healthy.Megatron stays healthy, he'll put up top 5 wr #'s. Book it.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
Apparently you missed this post:
Unlike Reggie Wayne, Calvin doesn't need his qb to stay healthy in order to produce top 5 wr #'s.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
What production did you expect his rookie year? He was a monster in 2008 and still managed respectable numbers in spite of injuries last year.
Calvin Johnson, Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, Drew Stanton, and 78/1,331/12 disagree with you.And
at Bear's fans in here bashing a guy they'd give up their first born child for if they could get him in Chicago. Don't push your luck fellas, you had enough of that on Sunday.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Seemed to conflict with the Footballguys.com "Eliminate the Suck" article.
Manster
Footballguy
you're kidding right?Austin is a physical specimen, and a fast one at that.
now Fitz and Mega might be overall more talented, sure, but i think Austin is in the same sentence with the two.
Insein
Footballguy
Its week 1. Relax. If anything, this no touchdown controversy is going to motivate him that much more. I wouldnt be suprised if he blows up against my eagles this week. Our secondary isn't in the greatest of shape right now. Asante guesses, Hobbs sucks, Patterson and Hanson are nickel talent at best, Mikell and Allen are our best players back there at safety. Mikell's an UDFA and Allen is a rookie.
I think you'll see Calvin go for 100 yds with at least 1 td this week by default.
I think you'll see Calvin go for 100 yds with at least 1 td this week by default.
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Breesisdaman
Footballguy
This thread needs one of these
I had Calvin ranked as WR7 in standard scoring and I still think that is about right.
I had both Wayne and White ahead of him.
CJ may have a better chance of being WR1 to WR3 than those guys, but despite the infatuation with ceilings, floors matter lots.
I just want to see one more year of Top 5 before I rank him there.
I had both Wayne and White ahead of him.
CJ may have a better chance of being WR1 to WR3 than those guys, but despite the infatuation with ceilings, floors matter lots.
I just want to see one more year of Top 5 before I rank him there.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Isn't the point of this hobby to correctly predict where players are going to finish before the season is over? I don't really care to argue with your rankings, but saying you have to see another year of top 5 production before putting him there seems off base. He's already accomplished what you're asking for, and he did it in a situation much less conducive to putting up productive numbers.I realize that people are down on him because of last season. He was hurt, his QB was hurt, and there wasn't much talent on that offense. I just find it interesting that his 2008 season is ignored for the most part. Everyone rehashes the same argument to downgrade Calvin (It's the Lions, poor o-line, weak surrounding cast, etc.), but the guy flat out got it done when he was healthy in 2008 in a much worse environment than he's in now.
There were a lot of positive signals coming out of Detroit this preseason idicating that the Lions may have turned the corner as an offense. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking a player capable of putting up 1,400 and 14 over two guys that'll put up 1,200 and 9.
I'm not sure if Stafford's injury impacts Calvin negatively or not. Shaun Hill targeted him much more in the second half than Matt did. Anyway, this thread is an egregious overreaction. It wouldn't even exist if not for a questionable call at the end of that game, and another TD that was barely missed in the first half.
Johnson's stat line could have just as easily been 6/90/2. As it stands, those are "what if's," but I'd rather have Calvin than Roddy or Wayne. It's just a matter of preference. Some people swing for the fences.
Todem
Footballguy
There are 2 types of risk, educated risk and swinging for the fences risk.
I don't take a ton of risk in round 1 2 or 3. I start taking risks (scouted, numbers, trends, opportunity) starting in round 4-8 which is known around here as the $$$ rounds. I swing for the fences in rounds 4-8 on a few players.
So when looking at guys in this case round 2 and you have Reggie Wayne, Roddy White, and Calvin Johnson starting you in the face. You know what floor you will get with Wayne for the most part. You know now what White can do after 2 straight years and after 3 years what do you know about Calvin?
1) Uber stud talent
2) lousy team still
3) second year QB
4) nagging injuries in his first 3 years
The upside play IMO was Roddy White. This will be his career year IMO. That was the money pick IMO.
1) 3rd year QB with loads of talent
2) great team around him
3) threat of a solid running game
4) a second option in the passing game to take attention away (Gonzo)
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Wu-banger
Footballguy
do to some homerism , early QB run ,and and by the book drafters in my redraft league I was able to get Megatron @ pick 2.11 to pair with Adrian Peterson.
Calvin actually went off the board at WR7...I had him ranked as my WR3 so I was very happy to grab him to go along with AD.
I did have a tough decison because Roddy WHite was still available..... decided on Johnson ultimatly because I felt he had more potential to finish WR1 or WR2 by the end of the year and it would be nice to have Rb1/2 and WR 1/2.
Only time will tell.....
Calvin actually went off the board at WR7...I had him ranked as my WR3 so I was very happy to grab him to go along with AD.
I did have a tough decison because Roddy WHite was still available..... decided on Johnson ultimatly because I felt he had more potential to finish WR1 or WR2 by the end of the year and it would be nice to have Rb1/2 and WR 1/2.
Only time will tell.....
