RGIII Dynasty Value: Top 3 (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

100% of of the seasons that Newton has played, he has scored 14 rushing TDs. He is on pace for 10, but his goal line usage is actually up, meaning, they are not changing the way they use him.Why do we assume 14 is his career year?

Remember that whole "people who bet on record breaking players to improve their stats are always disappointed" thing? That's why. Newton averaged 25.7 ppg last year. He's averaging 19.8 this year. The fact that his TDs are down despite his usage actually being up just reinforces that a lot of things have to go right in order to get a record, and you're unlikely to get that lucky perfect confluence of circumstances twice.

So when RG3 breaks it, and it's no longer a record?

 

[jdoggydogg]

To address your last point, about points not coming along - this is where Newton and RG3 are different. Why should we compare their point potential with past QBs, when they are very clearly different? The rushing TD from a QB record will be broken again this year, and the two will likely continue being threats for double digit TDs on the ground. That won't take away from what they can do through the air, enough to completely offset it. I have used this example before - say QBX also kicked field goals, and despite average passing stats, finished as QB3 because of his FGs. Would it be logical for us to suggest he can't improve on his numbers, because past QBs that didn't kick FGs couldn't?

You're overlooking a key point: Griffin and Newton don't kick field goals. They run. They aren't the only QBs in the league who run, and they aren't the only QBs in league history who ran. We have a long and rich history of running QBs to draw on. We have Cunninghams, and McNairs, and McNabbs, and Vicks, and Laynes, and Youngs (both Steve and Vince). We have a huge wealth of data on the career arcs of running QBs, and pretty much without exception, as they develop as passers, they regress as runners. Yes, both Newton and (likely) Griffin set the QB rushing TD record... But they were hardly the first to do so. Culpepper had 10 rushing TDs, and then never again topped 4. Mcnabb had 6 in 10 games, then never topped 3. If you think Newton and Griffin are unique, then you've already forgotten Randall Cunningham or even possibly a young Steve McNair.

It's said that Steve Young didn't become a great QB until he learned to become a pocket passer. While I think RGIII has all the tools to be a very good passer, I agree that he'll probably run less over the years - if for no other reason than to preserve his health.

 

[Ernol]

100% of of the seasons that Newton has played, he has scored 14 rushing TDs. He is on pace for 10, but his goal line usage is actually up, meaning, they are not changing the way they use him.Why do we assume 14 is his career year?

Remember that whole "people who bet on record breaking players to improve their stats are always disappointed" thing? That's why. Newton averaged 25.7 ppg last year. He's averaging 19.8 this year. The fact that his TDs are down despite his usage actually being up just reinforces that a lot of things have to go right in order to get a record, and you're unlikely to get that lucky perfect confluence of circumstances twice.

So when RG3 breaks it, and it's no longer a record?

Yeah, I'd be careful about this one as well. We see Drew Brees doing it now (or at least matching the pace of his record breaking year). This may be especially the case when looking at an individual stat put up by a rookie. I say "may" since we haven't seen rookies break records like we are now seeing Cam and RGIII do. There is no baseline for that particular player except for that rookie year, and in Cam's case, I would not be surprised at all if in any given year he breaks his own record. Would most people be that surprised if RGIII breaks the TD record this year (he's on pace)? If that is the case, why would we be surprised if Cam (who is equally as good a runner - in a different way) does it again as well?All that said, breaking a TD record is one thing - I think that can be done by the same player more than once. Breaking 480 fantasy points (RGIII's current pace in games he has finished) is another and requires everything to go right. If you start increasing passing yards, you will naturally decrease rushing yards. If you start increasing passing TDs, you are naturally taking away from opportunities to get rushing TDs. Only so many yards and TDs in any game can be had. Staying healthy is another factor. At 30 points per week, the number of drop backs (i.e., hits in the pocket) and runs required would make it difficult for RGIII (or Cam) or any running QB producing at that level to stay healthy all 16 games (which is an absolute must to reach 480). Topping 480? I don't think it can be done. It never has been reached to date (to my knowledge). It is the ultimate ceiling for a QB imo. Cam, by the way, was not close to 480 last year. Having lost a game already, RGIII wont make it this year (although he someday might reach it - thus making it his ceiling).

 

[Concept Coop]

100% of of the seasons that Newton has played, he has scored 14 rushing TDs. He is on pace for 10, but his goal line usage is actually up, meaning, they are not changing the way they use him.Why do we assume 14 is his career year?

Remember that whole "people who bet on record breaking players to improve their stats are always disappointed" thing? That's why. Newton averaged 25.7 ppg last year. He's averaging 19.8 this year. The fact that his TDs are down despite his usage actually being up just reinforces that a lot of things have to go right in order to get a record, and you're unlikely to get that lucky perfect confluence of circumstances twice.

So when RG3 breaks it, and it's no longer a record?

Yeah, I'd be careful about this one as well. We see Drew Brees doing it now (or at least matching the pace of his record breaking year). This may be especially the case when looking at an individual stat put up by a rookie. I say "may" since we haven't seen rookies break records like we are now seeing Cam and RGIII do. There is no baseline for that particular player except for that rookie year, and in Cam's case, I would not be surprised at all if in any given year he breaks his own record. Would most people be that surprised if RGIII breaks the TD record this year (he's on pace)? If that is the case, why would we be surprised if Cam (who is equally as good a runner - in a different way) does it again as well?All that said, breaking a TD record is one thing - I think that can be done by the same player more than once. Breaking 480 fantasy points (RGIII's current pace in games he has finished) is another and requires everything to go right. If you start increasing passing yards, you will naturally decrease rushing yards. If you start increasing passing TDs, you are naturally taking away from opportunities to get rushing TDs. Only so many yards and TDs in any game can be had. Staying healthy is another factor. At 30 points per week, the number of drop backs (i.e., hits in the pocket) and runs required would make it difficult for RGIII (or Cam) or any running QB producing at that level to stay healthy all 16 games (which is an absolute must to reach 480). Topping 480? I don't think it can be done. It never has been reached to date (to my knowledge). It is the ultimate ceiling for a QB imo. Cam, by the way, was not close to 480 last year. Having lost a game already, RGIII wont make it this year (although he someday might reach it - thus making it his ceiling).

I'll just say that I don't expect RG3 to do much more than he is, fantasy point wise, but it is within his potential to. Eventually someone is going to have Eli, or at least Romo numbers through the air, and 800/12 on the ground. Eventually somebody is going to be able to do what Vick did for a stretch, consistantly for a season +. Perhaps I am pre-mature, and it won't be this decade, but it will happen. It's happening in college football, and that change will make it's way to the NFL. 3 seasons in a row dual QBs have been drafted in the 1st round, and 3 years in a row dual threat QBs have won the Heisman. Back to the record - I would be shocked if it's not broken within the next 2-4 seasons, at leat once. The QB position is changing and NFL teams are using them differently. If it's not Newton or RG3, it will be Tebow, Kapernick, Manziel, Driskel, Geno...it's going to happen.