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** Road To The 2018 Triple Crown - 5/10: Justy Back On (The) Track, Ruis Will Ship Bolty/Duck The Rain ** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter otb_lifer
- Start date
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
otb_lifer
Footballguy
dubious article, inasmuch that they say "next Sunday" when referencing the KD - srsly?
i can dig that Horse Racing is as niche a gig now as curling, sign of the times
but when a major outlet such as CBS can't even fact check enuff to get the gotDAMN day correct, well :X
and i also call major BS on dude calling nine Derby winners in a row ... that stretches back to '09, and no ####### way that cat had Mine That Bird.
ETA: OK, article says "nine straight Oaks/Derby Doubles" - so it's possible he spread 20 deep in '09 to include MTB
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
on the track, some 4f works ...
Flamey drilling :47.80, and Casse talks of putting him on the pace
Promises Fulfilled with a snappy :48 staight
Bolty in a brisk :48.20, which pleased the connections very much
Free Drop Billy going :49.40
Good Magic also at :49.40, Brown's thoughts earlier last week
Firenze Fire in :50 flat
MBJ stretching to 5f in 1:03.20, Keith D hoping for the hot pace
Hofburg breezin' - Mott's talkin'
Baffert chattin' about Justy - final work, and the ship.
Pletcher on his Fab Four
... and add Mike Curry from ABR to the growing list of Vino drinkers
Flamey drilling :47.80, and Casse talks of putting him on the pace
Promises Fulfilled with a snappy :48 staight
Bolty in a brisk :48.20, which pleased the connections very much
Free Drop Billy going :49.40
Good Magic also at :49.40, Brown's thoughts earlier last week
Firenze Fire in :50 flat
MBJ stretching to 5f in 1:03.20, Keith D hoping for the hot pace
Hofburg breezin' - Mott's talkin'
Baffert chattin' about Justy - final work, and the ship.
Pletcher on his Fab Four
... and add Mike Curry from ABR to the growing list of Vino drinkers
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
They gotta stop touting Vino or it's going to ruin our odds.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
most of the Sharps are already on board, no turnin' that back ... especially with that dynamite last work he popped. dunno how much the average punter is dying to plunk down on the WIN bet, though ...
couple factors will keep him from getting banged to single digits, keeping him that 12-15/1 range, imo -
1) been 25 years since the winner of the Wood took down the KD
2) that Wood field he handled was not exactly "stellar" (Baffert shipped "C" team, the NWx2~Restoring Hope~, was actually bet down to second choice for that one, over Vino).
3) Pletcher has two who will take all the thunder in MM and Aud, and i think Noble Indy will be taking a ton of late money, as well.
Vino will be heavily bet underneath, that's for damn sure - MBJ/Vino/Hof are gonna be on scores of exotic tix.
all that being said, 12/1 on this cat (lowest i think he'll go) is a huuuge bargain for those who love him ... ahhhhh, those Derby totes, eh?
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I'd be very happy with 12-1. Audible's odds shaping up to be pretty good too. It's going to be all about keeping Justify off the board to get the really nice payday. Where's that guy from the Preakness 20 years ago that ran out onto the track and tried to punch one of the horses? We may need to call that dude and employ his services like Shooter McGavin did with Joe Flaherty.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Here's an interesting exercise - i can't imagine a Derby win coming from any but the Big 3 (Chocolate, Big Red, Pushbutton). I simply can't guess that none of that triad will get the trip and believe theyre all head & haunches better than anyone else in this field. What would appropriate Big 3 & Field win odds be?
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Probably pretty close to 50/50 if Justify is 5/2 (implied 28%), and Audible & Mendelssohn are 8/1 (implied 11%)
otb_lifer
Footballguy
heads up ... OAKS draw is today, starts up at 11 this morn
Derby Draw Tomorrow, first time they drew on a Tuesday, to my knowledge ... at least since i started 'capping
11:03-11:06 a.m. – Introduction
11:06-11:12 a.m. – Pill pull for 1-10
11:12-11:14 a.m. – Brief interlude
11:14-11:21 a.m. – Pill pull for 11-20
11:21-11:23 a.m. – Brief interlude
11:23-11:26 a.m. – Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia
so, all will be revealed by 11:30 tomorrow morning ... extra day to 'cap as per post position
Justy is gonna have to get slapped with a poor draw to be installed at anything over 3/1 to start - would expect MM/Mendy/GM/Aud/Bolty to follow in that order.
the draw of Promises Fulfilled is the key to this race, though ... if he draws dead, it's really gonna tilt the complexion of the pace - if his early speed is compromised, we may get some reluctant softer fractions (Flamey/Enticed/Bravazo/Noble Indy), which will hurt the closers ... best case scenario for this field is for PF to draw advantageously, click off some blazing digits, and be leading at the 3/4 mark - that will set up beautifully for the stretch cattle charge, and it really will make for an incredible run home for upwards to 10 horses, imo.
this is gonna be gooooood stuff, gents
ETA: Some More Props
Derby Draw Tomorrow, first time they drew on a Tuesday, to my knowledge ... at least since i started 'capping
11:03-11:06 a.m. – Introduction
11:06-11:12 a.m. – Pill pull for 1-10
11:12-11:14 a.m. – Brief interlude
11:14-11:21 a.m. – Pill pull for 11-20
11:21-11:23 a.m. – Brief interlude
11:23-11:26 a.m. – Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia
so, all will be revealed by 11:30 tomorrow morning ... extra day to 'cap as per post position
Justy is gonna have to get slapped with a poor draw to be installed at anything over 3/1 to start - would expect MM/Mendy/GM/Aud/Bolty to follow in that order.
the draw of Promises Fulfilled is the key to this race, though ... if he draws dead, it's really gonna tilt the complexion of the pace - if his early speed is compromised, we may get some reluctant softer fractions (Flamey/Enticed/Bravazo/Noble Indy), which will hurt the closers ... best case scenario for this field is for PF to draw advantageously, click off some blazing digits, and be leading at the 3/4 mark - that will set up beautifully for the stretch cattle charge, and it really will make for an incredible run home for upwards to 10 horses, imo.
this is gonna be gooooood stuff, gents
ETA: Some More Props
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Interesting that they have the O/U for the early fractions set at 22.8/46.8. Do they actually factor projected pace / race composition / weather into that (even before the post draw?) or is that simply median splits based on prior runnings?heads up ... OAKS draw is today, starts up at 11 this morn
Derby Draw Tomorrow, first time they drew on a Tuesday, to my knowledge ... at least since i started 'capping
11:03-11:06 a.m. – Introduction
11:06-11:12 a.m. – Pill pull for 1-10
11:12-11:14 a.m. – Brief interlude
11:14-11:21 a.m. – Pill pull for 11-20
11:21-11:23 a.m. – Brief interlude
11:23-11:26 a.m. – Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia
so, all will be revealed by 11:30 tomorrow morning ... extra day to 'cap as per post position
Justy is gonna have to get slapped with a poor draw to be installed at anything over 3/1 to start - would expect MM/Mendy/GM/Aud/Bolty to follow in that order.
the draw of Promises Fulfilled is the key to this race, though ... if he draws dead, it's really gonna tilt the complexion of the pace - if his early speed is compromised, we may get some reluctant softer fractions (Flamey/Enticed/Bravazo/Noble Indy), which will hurt the closers ... best case scenario for this field is for PF to draw advantageously, click off some blazing digits, and be leading at the 3/4 mark - that will set up beautifully for the stretch cattle charge, and it really will make for an incredible run home for upwards to 10 horses, imo.
this is gonna be gooooood stuff, gents
ETA: Some More Props
otb_lifer
Footballguy
gotta be median splits ... plus, looking at this year's field and the preps ... not many early blazers - most notable was PF in the Fla. Derby
and, again, if he draws well, no way in hell are they going anything over :22 ish- sub :45 ish splits early ... can't guarantee anything in this race, but that's about as close as i can see to a lock - so i just did.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
A friend of mine who bets nothing but longshots might bite on this if he gets 16 or 17 horses to my 3.wikkidpissah said:
otb_lifer
Footballguy
who are your three?A friend of mine who bets nothing but longshots might bite on this if he gets 16 or 17 horses to my 3.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Like 2 of Wikkid's 3 (Justify & Audible) but might sub MMoon for the foreign horse, I have a bias that way.
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wikkidpissah
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
24 hrs. to post draw and i would lean Good Magic over MM, but it's a very close call.
still not completely sold on chucking him (MM) up into my spread.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
That foreign horse could get you the same in meters, but I don't know how to do the conversion. :(
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
otb_lifer
Footballguy
$3,000,000 son of Scat Daddy foaled in Kentucky .... already raced here, shipping in to bag the BC Juvey Turf last November - he's an expat, if anything
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Sorry, missed that Delmar race. He does look good for one of dem foreigners.$3,000,000 son of Scat Daddy foaled in Kentucky .... already raced here, shipping in to bag the BC Juvey Turf last November - he's an expat, if anything
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Weather looks good. Some thundershowers on Friday possible but 80 degrees on Derby Day and clear. Might be a little warm for some of the horses
otb_lifer
Footballguy
tough betting too far in advance if that warm forecast holds up ... gotta be close to a window (or your keyboard, praying your online book isn't crashing) during the post parade to see if any are washed out/lathered/etc - any nick in the armor is worth exploiting when we have such a deep field.
they've been working in mostly cool conditions thus far at Churchill, as one would expect from their pleasant mornings.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
He reminds me so much of Slew - coloration & sleekness & running style. If he draws post eight-in, i see Mendy controlling the pace from the rail, letting everyone else do dey thang, just like he did in Juvy Turf, just like Slew did, being chilly anywhere from lead to five back, then cashing his Euro for the last Q. The Euro thing also helps with the Dubai prob, too - he's already had a longer load than going to Meydan from Europe or from there to Churchill when he came from Jolly Ol' to Del Mar for the BC
otb_lifer
Footballguy
still think him and Justy make that first move on the ill-fated lead pack ... which will draw all the big guns into the fray while giving the closers plenty of tired flesh to pick up.
he's gonna get his run, he ain't shipping here to wind his ####### watch.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Won't bother Audible, that's for sure. It was hot as balls for the FL Derby (I don't care what the thermometer reading was, that's often immaterial here in FL.) Didn't seem to faze him that day.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
... or Promises Fulfilled - only thing too hot for him was that early duel with Strike Power ?
ETA: and let's not forget my boy Hofburg ... that close for second was sweet A.F.
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wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Dont see my guy on the pace unless he draws outside and has to go for it or MM & Big Red dont make it out. Chilly 5x5 on the rail
otb_lifer
Footballguy
- my scenario would have them both seriously moving on the pack at 3/4 - and that's where they should inhale the PF/N.I./Flamey trio ... Enticed and Bravazo will have started backing up already
otb_lifer
Footballguy
OAKS Draw/Odds
link for up to date PPs Here
1. Sassy Sienna, Brad Cox, Gary Stevens, 15-1
2. Coach Rocks, Dale Romans, Luis Saez, 12-1
3. Classy Act, Bret Calhoun, Brian Hernandez Jr., 15-1
4. Chocolate Martini, Tom Amoss, Javier Castellano, 12-1
5. Wonder Gadot, Mark Casse, John Velazquez, 20-1
6. Kelly’s Humor, Brad Cox, Irad Ortiz, 30-1
7. Rayya, Bob Baffert, Drayden Van Dyke, 15-1
8. Heavenhasmynikki, Anthony Quartarolo, Calvin Borel, 30-1
9. Take Charge Paula, Kiaran McLaughlin, Jose Ortiz, 15-1
10. Midnight Bisou, Bill Spawr, Mike Smith, 5-2
11. My Miss Lilly, Mark Hennig, Joe Bravo, 10-1
12. Patrona Margarita, Bret Calhoun, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
13. Eskimo Kisses, Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie, 15-1
14. Monomoy Girl, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 2-1
for Borel bagging a mount - that's gonna result in some funny money - wish him all the best.
link for up to date PPs Here
1. Sassy Sienna, Brad Cox, Gary Stevens, 15-1
2. Coach Rocks, Dale Romans, Luis Saez, 12-1
3. Classy Act, Bret Calhoun, Brian Hernandez Jr., 15-1
4. Chocolate Martini, Tom Amoss, Javier Castellano, 12-1
5. Wonder Gadot, Mark Casse, John Velazquez, 20-1
6. Kelly’s Humor, Brad Cox, Irad Ortiz, 30-1
7. Rayya, Bob Baffert, Drayden Van Dyke, 15-1
8. Heavenhasmynikki, Anthony Quartarolo, Calvin Borel, 30-1
9. Take Charge Paula, Kiaran McLaughlin, Jose Ortiz, 15-1
10. Midnight Bisou, Bill Spawr, Mike Smith, 5-2
11. My Miss Lilly, Mark Hennig, Joe Bravo, 10-1
12. Patrona Margarita, Bret Calhoun, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
13. Eskimo Kisses, Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie, 15-1
14. Monomoy Girl, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 2-1
for Borel bagging a mount - that's gonna result in some funny money - wish him all the best.
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wikkidpissah
Footballguy
didn't know he'd come back.
he's younger than Mikey..... if Eurojock stays on his side of the pond, that's who my chocolate horse needs for his rail trip
otb_lifer
Footballguy
he's still taking mounts, was busy at the Fair Grounds ... hometown boydidn't know he'd come back.
chet
Footballguy
Where did you see this? I thought I read the draw would be as usual, Wed afternoon. Any reason for the change?otb_lifer said:heads up ... OAKS draw is today, starts up at 11 this morn
Derby Draw Tomorrow, first time they drew on a Tuesday, to my knowledge ... at least since i started 'capping
11:03-11:06 a.m. – Introduction
11:06-11:12 a.m. – Pill pull for 1-10
11:12-11:14 a.m. – Brief interlude
11:14-11:21 a.m. – Pill pull for 11-20
11:21-11:23 a.m. – Brief interlude
11:23-11:26 a.m. – Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia
so, all will be revealed by 11:30 tomorrow morning ... extra day to 'cap as per post position
Justy is gonna have to get slapped with a poor draw to be installed at anything over 3/1 to start - would expect MM/Mendy/GM/Aud/Bolty to follow in that order.
the draw of Promises Fulfilled is the key to this race, though ... if he draws dead, it's really gonna tilt the complexion of the pace - if his early speed is compromised, we may get some reluctant softer fractions (Flamey/Enticed/Bravazo/Noble Indy), which will hurt the closers ... best case scenario for this field is for PF to draw advantageously, click off some blazing digits, and be leading at the 3/4 mark - that will set up beautifully for the stretch cattle charge, and it really will make for an incredible run home for upwards to 10 horses, imo.
this is gonna be gooooood stuff, gents
ETA: Some More Props
otb_lifer
Footballguy
chet
Footballguy
All things being equal, ideal draw position is 5-10?
will have streaming links up tomorrow morning -
otb_lifer
Footballguy
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Westgate odds as of this afternoon :
Justify 3/1
Good Magic 5/1
Mendelssohn 6/1
Magnum Moon 7/1
Audible 8/1
Bolt d'Oro 8/1
Vino Rosso 12/1
Enticed 20/1
My Boy Jack 30/1
Noble Indy 40/1
Flameaway 40/1
Lone Sailor 40/1
Free Drop Billy 40/1
Solomini 50/1
Hofburg 60/1
Strike Power 60/1
Combatant 60/1
Instilled Regard 80/1
Promises Fulfilled 100/1
Bravazo 100/1
Blended Citizen 100/1
Firenze Fire 200/1
Restoring Hope 300/1
Reride 300/1
Dream Baby Dream 300/1
Snapper Sinclair 300/1
Sporting Chance 500/1
Justify 3/1
Good Magic 5/1
Mendelssohn 6/1
Magnum Moon 7/1
Audible 8/1
Bolt d'Oro 8/1
Vino Rosso 12/1
Enticed 20/1
My Boy Jack 30/1
Noble Indy 40/1
Flameaway 40/1
Lone Sailor 40/1
Free Drop Billy 40/1
Solomini 50/1
Hofburg 60/1
Strike Power 60/1
Combatant 60/1
Instilled Regard 80/1
Promises Fulfilled 100/1
Bravazo 100/1
Blended Citizen 100/1
Firenze Fire 200/1
Restoring Hope 300/1
Reride 300/1
Dream Baby Dream 300/1
Snapper Sinclair 300/1
Sporting Chance 500/1
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
i mean, i suppose it's hard to discard a 2yo champ who's been 3rd & 1st in two G1 Derby preps, but anyone who considers Good Magic a serious contender isn't really paying attention, are they?!
otb_lifer
Footballguy
all the bettor for you lot that dismiss him ... just let it flow, and stack against. Hard.
(but i think Brown has him on a prudent upward trajectory, KD will be third off the bench since BCJVY - he has not run his best yet this prep season, but is steadily building - and has the top two yr. old form to run back to. i believe he's ready to uncork a monster).
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Mendy (with some drama) and Justy (with some hoopla) have finally arrived.
as we await today's post draw, here is a look at the numbers for each
Final Media Poll - Bolty moving up to second
Louisville Courier Journal with a "why they can/why they won't" for each horse
OAKS cheat sheet
and, as luck would have it, i will be tied up most of the morning, until noon - won't be catching the live draw ... Here is a link to the live festivities, will kick off at 11 a.m. - so hopefully one of y'all can facilitate as they get it done
as we await today's post draw, here is a look at the numbers for each
Final Media Poll - Bolty moving up to second
Louisville Courier Journal with a "why they can/why they won't" for each horse
OAKS cheat sheet
and, as luck would have it, i will be tied up most of the morning, until noon - won't be catching the live draw ... Here is a link to the live festivities, will kick off at 11 a.m. - so hopefully one of y'all can facilitate as they get it done
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I'll try hard to get the posts put up here in real time, but I'm not optimistic. I rarely get left alone at work long enough to actually watch anything.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
hoping Promises Fulfilled draws midpack so we can get the race/pace this field deserves ... and wouldn't mind seeing Hofburg/MBJ/Combatant in the #1 hole at all ....Lookin' At Lee clunked up to second with similar style last year.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
otb_lifer
Footballguy
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
OK- I'm on and watching, not sure for how long. Will update here as long as I can.
First update, this looks like it was shot with the first digital camera ever made.
First update, this looks like it was shot with the first digital camera ever made.
bshell27
Footballguy
Thomas The Skank Engine
Footballguy
Firenze Fire draws 1
Thomas The Skank Engine
Footballguy
Justify draws 7
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