** Road To The 2018 Triple Crown - 5/10: Justy Back On (The) Track, Ruis Will Ship Bolty/Duck The Rain ** (2 Viewers)

[WampusCat43]

a li'lbit. mostly though it's the geometric expansion of debt that new breeders don't get. you retire a mare to breed and, if you're "lucky" enough to have a get every year, you're paying feed & vet for four horses before the first one makes the track and barely half of them ever bring a check. that & my partner - Santa Fe's biggest coke dealer - got busted. aaaand the blister beetles.

i'm too big and started too late to be a natural on a horse, but there aint no better way to begin a day than watching a NM sunrise atop a fine animal. wanted to have a family business before i started a family & i had that showbiz dough, so i went in farther than i should. no regrets, though, not one little one.

My granddaddy raised thoroughbreds and used to take me to the Keeneland Sales as a child.  He had two sayings:  The one everyone knows is "If you want to make a little money in the horse business you have to start with a lot of money".  The other was "Never invest in anything that eats".

 

[wikkidpissah]

My granddaddy raised thoroughbreds and used to take me to the Keeneland Sales as a child.  He had two sayings:  The one everyone knows is "If you want to make a little money in the horse business you have to start with a lot of money".  The other was "Never invest in anything that eats".

truer words....

once or twice a year, me & some horse people used to drive from Santa Fe to Sallisaw OK - one of the worst drives ever - for the Heritage sales and futurity trials (mostly quarterhorses) @ Blue Ribbon Downs. This was before tote betting was legal, so it was just green colts & fillies, a 400 yd straightaway & rolls of bills that would choke an Appaloosa in contests of "ma horse beats ur'n".  'twas like being dropped into another century. now, i have a northerner's natural contempt for ol'boys, rednecks & ####kickers, but i loves me some horsefolk. good times...

 

[otb_lifer]

ABR gives a good look at tomorrow's Rebel - interesting that Saez jumped off Sporting Chance to hop on Magnum Moon - hopefully we are not looking at Malagacy 2.0 here ...

DRF's Illman and Bernier do likewise in this 12 minute vid

for Ultimate PPs, go Here , click for the Rebel, under Solomini

this is always my favorite prep, we have a very deep and competitive field here - talk of Baffert shipping McKinzie to the Arkansas Derby, so Oaklawn looks to be very crucial to this year's prospects.

 

[wikkidpissah]

No Mississippi..........................my Mississippi..............................where Mississippi.............................

 

[otb_lifer]

No Mississippi..........................my Mississippi..............................where Mississippi.............................

surprised they didn't point him to the Sunland Derby (3/25) - that is a muchmuch softer spot, especially now with Mourinho gone 

 

[otb_lifer]

REBEL PPs 

man, Solomini is absolutely crushing his works over the past month - if he's on, and it is a 3+ month layoff, dunno how he misses here.  Baffert was killing the Rebel, winning 6 of 7, before Pletcher scored with  Malagacy last year.  deserving favorite, seasoned with the remarkable top notch Cali crop, and will beast today if he runs back.

meanwhile, we saw a few of these in a muddy Southwest last month ... My Boy Jack is on ice 'til LA. Derby, so that leaves two who were factoring late: Sporting Chance/Combatant - flashing back to the Hopeful up at the Spa for SC ... drifted out in the stretch, and damn near blew it, but held it vs. some Derby trail timber.  second off the layoff for Lukas, jostled in the stretch last out - working extremely well ... very live cat this afternoon.  would expect to be upfront with Title Ready/Curlin's Honor (both jumping up in class, the former was impressive last out on this track) - if the favorite falters, this is one who can get up.

Combatant  had a four wide bid in the Southwest ... tough sledding with that track condition, and it looked like he was poised to strike the lead before the bumping in the stretch - has finished second in three straight Stakes now, including the previous two preps (Smarty/SouthW) at Oaklawn ... do or die for this one today, especially with news that Justify will be shipping here for Arkansas Derby, along with the return of MBJ and perhaps a few more from the Rebel. 

as far as Magnum Moon goes, copy of my post earlier this week:

"Magnum Moon can be called "Justify-East"  -  not raced as a two year old, superstar trainer (Pletcher), impressive wins in both career races, latecomer to the Derby trail gettin' a ton of buzz ... he hasn't been as eye popping as the west coast phenom (who has?), but the similarities bear mention - a late foal (May 9th), so will not be a true 3 year old if he goes to Churchill, and may have been a reason they held him back as a two year old.  Pletcher loves this cat, and the wait to debut him on the trail is finally over, as he will be going in this Saturday's Rebel down at Oaklawn ... heavyweight  Solomini awaits, making his 2018 debut (Baffert has won a record six Rebel Stakes, all since 2010) -  Sporting Chance and Combatant will also have a say, giving the Gr.II prep some nice depth.   MM just drilled a bullet 5f work at Palm Meadows, so he's tuned the hell up for Saturday."  

i'll add today that his last time out was two turn rating education at Tampa - OC company, but Saez held back from the pack and had plenty of horse when called upon, coming home in hand - rounding into perfect form for this one. could be the start of a big TC run here for the Toddfather.

i spoke of the Kentucky Jockey Cup, and how that November race has now gone on to produce four prep winners: Bravazo/Promises Fulfilled/Quip/Enticed  (we also had two other runners from that race, Lone Sailor and Reride, who went on to win Stakes in subsequent outings) now, as far as the Derby preps, only Enticed was favored going in, the other three hovered in the lower double digit odds range ... so that brings us to High North -  had a difficult trip, was 13th outta 14 at the 1/2 mile call in the KJC, but rallied sharply to finish fourth ... had a 5th place dud behind Bravazo last out in the Risen Star, but is coming in second off the layoff from that extremely prodigious race, also a jockey switch to Gary Stevens - if form holds, and the pace collapses today .... we may have the fifth coming outta that one. verrrry tall order as this Rebel field is stacked so much more than the preps that churned out flattering winners from the KJC, but, we have a trend here     

if there is a meltdown, Zing Zang will also have a say. 

 meanwhile, at Turfway Park, we have the Jeff Ruby Steaks (formerly the Spiral) - going 1 1/8th on the synth - meager (20/8/3/2) spoils at stake, but, spoils nonetheless.  not very familiar with this lot at all, so here's a look from OTB

 

[otb_lifer]

Magnum Moon romps in the Rebel (link to KD homepage replay).

an epic debut on the trail  - he really looked fantastic out there, once he made his move it was clear he was gonna wipe 'em out, only question left was by how much?  rated off tepid fractions, cruising about about three wide when he got underway - drifted out just a bit, but still walked home by a comfortable three lengths - dominant - and check that gallop out ... fresh, spry, full of energy    looks like he may have wanted more, which bodes well for Churchill.  

Solomini was skimming the rail most of the way, looked like Prat was just biding time waiting for Ortiz to cede an inch on Title Ready - appeared as if there was a sliver as they approached the home turn, and Prat put him on a hard ride -  but  Solomini was on the wrong lead, and just didn't have the  acceleration to squeeze through - seemed to bob out towards the infield as he was checked - got pinched and had to bounce out, where he was then met by Combatant, and the battle for second was engaged - dug in enough to hold off Combatant, but really had to grind for that place showing.  

final fractions were not eye-popping, but the two turn route test vs. Derby Trail Stakes company was easily passed -  Pletcher with second Rebel in a row, and this one looks more legit than Malagacy.

so, howzabout that upcoming Arkansas Derby, eh? Baffert has confirmed that Justify will ship for the 4/14 race - we get both hotshots on the Oaklawn surface - the tease of the match race between the two dazzlers which will be hyped to the max, as they both look to buck the curse of Apollo  

meanwhile, Doug O'Neill ships Blended Citizen to Turfway, and snags himself the Jeff Ruby, holding off a late charge by Pletcher's Pony Up - very entertaining "synth special" finish, as the winner closed nicely from the inside, and had just enough left to bag his 20 points.  also had a third place finish in last month's El Camino Real at GG, so that 22 cumulative total puts him firmly on the KD bubble ... gonna need a soft upcoming spot to bag enough to ensure a ship to Churchill, probably one of either the Bluegrass (4/7) or (most likely) the Lexington (4/14), both at Keeneland. 

 

[wikkidpissah]

impressed but suspicious. another clicktrack race, with the winner never having to put up a big fraction nor do any significant pickingup/puttingdown of other aniscules. more to learn. like that Saez's seat, tho - very aerodynamic

 

[otb_lifer]

impressed but suspicious. another clicktrack race, with the winner never having to put up a big fraction nor do any significant pickingup/puttingdown of other aniscules. more to learn. like that Saez's seat, tho - very aerodynamic

only his third career start - kid is just growing into his beastliness - thought his move for home had just enough giddyup. 

Solomini would've had more of a say had Prat not doomed him to the inside path for the close.  dunno where BB points that one next.

 

[otb_lifer]

Magnum Moon jumps up to third choice (10/1) on the latest Vegas (Wynn) Odds Board (note: the bolded horses on that sheet  are not yet TC nominated, including my boy Flameaway  - who is being pointed to Bluegrass on 4/7).  

Bolt/McKinzie at 7-8/1, respectively, and they will hook up one more time in the Santa Anita Derby (4/7)

... want a Stakes winner at 225/1? Blended Citizen just took down the Ruby, and is being pointed towards Churchill, as per the connections - just needs to hit the board in his next outing, and, WA-LA!  hey, it's a reeeaaal longshot , but there ya go   

for the less adventurous, howzabout Bravazo (30/1) or My Boy Jack (50/1) ... they will be hooking up in this coming Saturday's Louisiana Derby - also featuring 65/1 shot Snapper Sinclair, who gave Bravazo all he could handle (at 41/1) in the Risen Star  

Solomini  is heading East - Baffert is opting for the Wood up here at the Big A for his final prep - gonna tangle with the NY crop rather than the two hotshots in the Ark. Derby or the two front runners at Santa Anita.  

 

[wikkidpissah]

.. want a Stakes winner at 225/1? Blended Citizen just took down the Ruby, and is being pointed towards Churchill, as per the connections - just needs to hit the board in his next outing, and, WA-LA!  hey, it's a reeeaaal longshot , but there ya go   

and, even tho he mighta got the best from the course, that was a legit sub-:24 final quarter, first we've seen on the Trail

 

[otb_lifer]

and, even tho he mighta got the best from the course, that was a legit sub-:24 final quarter, first we've seen on the Trail

nice catch, gotta think Pony Up did likewise   

ETA: Mississippi at 65/1 

.

 

[otb_lifer]

Zipse/Shifman with a look back, as well as ahead ...

Rebel Review

Derby Top 10

Louisiana Derby Preview

DRF's Matt Bernier also looks at Magnum Moon/Rebel

Baffert "pleased" with Solomini's effort

Latest Media Poll

 

[otb_lifer]

Louisiana Derby - first prep to dole out 100/40/20/10 ...

not the most inspiring field, but it is deep and wide open - last prep down here (Risen Star) featured 21/1 Bravazo over 41/1 Snapper Sinclair at the wire - this looks like a good betting race today, the early pace is gonna be so very crucial. 

looking back at that Risen Star, it really just boiled down to a match race between the top two - Instilled Regard went off as 7/5 favorite, but had no burst in the stretch ...

Miggy Mena was a last minute replacement for Gary Stevens on the winner, but back to the H.o.F. jock this afternoon, as leading Fair Grounds rider Mena sits this one out - speaking of rider switches, Jose Ortiz jumps up on Snapper Sinclair today ... maybe trying to sit off the pace juuust a bit, especially when considering that Asmussen also entered another front runner in Retirement Fund - think the plan here is to let RF get out with the hotter fractions, allowing Ortiz to rate off with SS - it is the key dynamic to this race, Asmussen looking to soften the early speed while hoping to ration SS enough under one of the top jocks.  RF wanted no part of that Arkansas mud last out, and has two impressive lower class route wins over the Fair Grounds surface ... stranger things have happened this prep season ..

Noble Indy had a rough second half in the RS - came out firing, but was jostled for position down the stretch ... finally took the rail and closed nicely to pick up show dough.  he really needs this one badly, and would expect Pletcher/Johnny V to have him bolting right out the gate ... from the 2 hole again, so position should be no problem - coming in off a sharp work, and adding blinkers to help offset the facacta antics - love him in this spot. very much.

as for Bravazo, he drilled his last work and has the top speed fig in the field.  will be interesting to see how Stevens deals with the expected hot early pace  ... this is a very honest and steady cat, the type that "if he runs his race" can not help being a factor at the wire. Lukas/Stevens bring a mountain of experience and cred - perhaps the last legit Derby shot for both?  surprised he wasn't m/l favorite ... 

... that distinction belongs to My Boy Jack, who had a textbook close for the Desormeaux bros. in a muddy Southwest last month ... was only his second dirt route, as he was primarily turf prior to ... will benefit greatly from that likely hot pace upfront ... outside post should not hinder his style at all, would expect him to sit back with Lone Sailor (another Kentucky Jockey Cup graduate, fifth in that race), and if there is a collapse, those two will be picking 'em up as they close.  LS also presents the sentimental angle, as he was part of recently deceased New Orleans legend Tom Benson's  group (along with his wife, Gayle) - no one was bigger on the sports scene down there than Benson.

Givemeamint also ran in that milestone KJC, and switches back to Javi today, who piloted him to a very respectable fourth in the BC Juvey (Good Magic/Solomini/Bolt d'Oro) ... could be sitting back with the two mentioned above, but would expect an earlier move from this one ... familiar with this track, and needs to bounce back from a very disappointing RS.

for ultimate PPs, go Here - find Noble Indy and clicky.

 

[otb_lifer]

Noble Indy takes it down - this was as quizzical run prep as I can remember - wait for the replay 

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Noble Indy takes it down - this was as quizzical run prep as I can remember - wait for the replay 

Good ****ing call, man! 

 

[otb_lifer]

Louisiana Derby

Noble Indy sits off the pace, takes charge, drops to second, takes charge again, My Boy Jack  comes late and very wide (Texas?), Lone Sailor hangs for second, Bravazo looked to be checked just a bit at the 3/4, Retirement Fund/Snapper Sinclair never really challenged the early cheap speed (wtf, Asmussen?)

i mean, yeah, this was just a crazy ### finish ... really impressed with Noble Indy hanging as tough as he did from wire to wire - those blinkers sealed the deal, no question. coming back in the stretch to pass Lone Sailor, who kinda looked like he buried the eventual winner - and, ferchrissakes, Desormeaux was always gonna be coming late, we knew that ... but, after skimming so beautifully in the Southwest he couldn't find a better path home for MBJ than another friggin' area code?  watch him at the 3/4, he starts flying - but man was he nudged all the way the #### out ...   as expected, the pace collapsed enough for those two to pick 'em on up, but what an absolutely   stretch run.

interesting to note that a possible 1/4 of the potential KD field ran in this one - we will definitely see (barring hijinks): Noble Indy/Lone Sailor/Bravazo/My Boy Jack - all have enough to qualify for Churchill ... Snapper Sinclair is sittin' with 22 points - so with defections, injuries, etc he could also squeeze in.

wtf does all that mean?  EASY TOSSES from the top of KD tix.

the winner showed some balls, no doubt, and he is on a nice trajectory ... but i honestly want no part of this lot come first Saturday in May.  

ETA: Sunland Derby today, was supposed to be the springboard for Mourinho ....

quick look at the field yields a win pick on the #4 Hollywood Star - not very familiar with this crop, except for Choo Choo and Seven Trumpets, both of whom have burned some coin on the trail ... especially the latter, was touted highly up here, but never really sparked - his grueling stretch run cede to Firenze Fire in the Jerome may have fried this one, same as it did FF    

DRF's Illman and Beer give a more in depth look

 

[otb_lifer]

Runaway Ghost blows 'em away in the Sunland Derby

contentious early fractions (45.4 for the half) softened the front just enough for this Ghostzapper progeny to make an impressive three wide bid for the win.  breaking from the 11 hole, rating beautifully 'til that push-button move - once he got going, it was all over. 

this was a real lower tier field he took down, but liking that authoritative push after being hung wide most of the way ... he's on his way to Churchill, and will undoubtedly be one of the longer shots on the board - perhaps a gatecrasher on the bottom of exotics, at best.

 

[otb_lifer]

No Mississippi..........................my Mississippi..............................where Mississippi.............................

surprised they didn't point him to the Sunland Derby (3/25) - that is a muchmuch softer spot, especially now with Mourinho gone 

looks like our boy will be going in a stacked (Audible/Catholic Boy/Promises Fulfilled/Strike Power) Florida Derby this coming Saturday - keeping him at Gulfstream rather than shipping to a softer spot was surprising, but he had a great effort there back in Jan. in allw company ... second by less than a length to eventual Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy 

he's gotta at least place here to procure enough pts. to pack for Kentucky ... he sure as #### is gonna earn it if he does. 

 

[wikkidpissah]

looks like our boy will be going in a stacked (Audible/Catholic Boy/Promises Fulfilled/Strike Power) Florida Derby this coming Saturday - keeping him at Gulfstream rather than shipping to a softer spot was surprising, but he had a great effort there back in Jan. in allw company ... second by less than a length to eventual Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy 

he's gotta at least place here to procure enough pts. to pack for Kentucky ... he sure as #### is gonna earn it if he does. 

looks like a course to a later leg. thx -

 

[otb_lifer]

looks like a course to a later leg. thx -

perhaps, but there were any other number of scenarios to toss him towards if they weren't thinking KD ... entering a Gr.I at this stage tells me Casse thinks he's ready - just popped a 4f sparkler at Palm Meadows in preparation. 

gives that already potent field a bit more intrigue. 

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I might have to go to the Florida Derby, never been to Gulfstream and I have Saturday wide open. Anyone here been and is it a good place to see a race? 

 

[Judge Smails]

I might have to go to the Florida Derby, never been to Gulfstream and I have Saturday wide open. Anyone here been and is it a good place to see a race? 

Been once and enjoyed it. I think it was free parking/admission into the whole racing/casino complex. Remembering it was fun. Easy to get beer, decent grub. Lines weren’t long to bet but I didn’t go on a big day

 

[Judge Smails]

Louisiana Derby

Noble Indy sits off the pace, takes charge, drops to second, takes charge again, My Boy Jack  comes late and very wide (Texas?), Lone Sailor hangs for second, Bravazo looked to be checked just a bit at the 3/4, Retirement Fund/Snapper Sinclair never really challenged the early cheap speed (wtf, Asmussen?)

i mean, yeah, this was just a crazy ### finish ... really impressed with Noble Indy hanging as tough as he did from wire to wire - those blinkers sealed the deal, no question. coming back in the stretch to pass Lone Sailor, who kinda looked like he buried the eventual winner - and, ferchrissakes, Desormeaux was always gonna be coming late, we knew that ... but, after skimming so beautifully in the Southwest he couldn't find a better path home for MBJ than another friggin' area code?  watch him at the 3/4, he starts flying - but man was he nudged all the way the #### out ...   as expected, the pace collapsed enough for those two to pick 'em on up, but what an absolutely   stretch run.

interesting to note that a possible 1/4 of the potential KD field ran in this one - we will definitely see (barring hijinks): Noble Indy/Lone Sailor/Bravazo/My Boy Jack - all have enough to qualify for Churchill ... Snapper Sinclair is sittin' with 22 points - so with defections, injuries, etc he could also squeeze in.

wtf does all that mean?  EASY TOSSES from the top of KD tix.

the winner showed some balls, no doubt, and he is on a nice trajectory ... but i honestly want no part of this lot come first Saturday in May.  

ETA: Sunland Derby today, was supposed to be the springboard for Mourinho ....

quick look at the field yields a win pick on the #4 Hollywood Star - not very familiar with this crop, except for Choo Choo and Seven Trumpets, both of whom have burned some coin on the trail ... especially the latter, was touted highly up here, but never really sparked - his grueling stretch run cede to Firenze Fire in the Jerome may have fried this one, same as it did FF    

DRF's Illman and Beer give a more in depth look

I had $100 to win on My Boy Jack and thought 3-1 was a gift. Only closer in a field loaded with speed. Total set up. Don’t know what Kent D was doing. Makes an Arazi-like move turning for Home and then goes so wide it’s not funny. Hangs out in the grandstand for 3rd

 

[JShare87]

I might have to go to the Florida Derby, never been to Gulfstream and I have Saturday wide open. Anyone here been and is it a good place to see a race? 

I may head up there as well. Only about an hour and a half away.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Been once and enjoyed it. I think it was free parking/admission into the whole racing/casino complex. Remembering it was fun. Easy to get beer, decent grub. Lines weren’t long to bet but I didn’t go on a big day

Thanks man. Debating it, I'd go in a heartbeat if it wasn't almost 3 hours each way. 

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I may head up there as well. Only about an hour and a half away.

About 2h 45m for me, that's the only dissuading factor. Although, I could stop at Primanti Bros. In Lauderdale on the way. Going to be kind of a tough sell to the Mrs... I'll need her to drive home since there's no way I wouldn't be having multiple beers. 

 

[otb_lifer]

I had $100 to win on My Boy Jack and thought 3-1 was a gift. Only closer in a field loaded with speed. Total set up. Don’t know what Kent D was doing. Makes an Arazi-like move turning for Home and then goes so wide it’s not funny. Hangs out in the grandstand for 3rd

 Bravazo was definitely checked - and he was pulled to the outside, causing a traffic snarl - but when ya see the angle Desormeaux took, it's almost as if he was aiming to run off the oval - the Bravazo/Snapper mess in the four/five wide path made this an impossible bid.  

the brothers are now talking of possibly running him back in the Arkansas Derby (4/14) :  "My Boy Jack's co-owner, Sol Kumin, reported after the Louisiana Derby that trainer Keith Desormeax "had said that if he needed the points he’d think about wheeling back in the Arkansas Derby, but we’ll wait to see how he comes out and what Keith wants to do. In Keith we trust.”    he did bag the Southwest down thee on the muddy track.

mentioned the Mississippi/Noble Indy hookup yesterday - here it is, a virtual match race all the way 'round. both clear by a good six lengths to the rest of 'em.  as we look at the current Vegas futures, Mississippi still hangin' at 65/1 - lotta respect for a horse who has yet to beat winners.

Latest Vegas Odds (Wynn) -  (sheet begins with odds to win the TC) 

stakes winner Blended Citizen, who ran the fastest final fractions of any prep, is now down to a cool 175/1 (was at 275 last check) 

 

[chet]

After taking a year off, we are back to the KY Derby this year.  Going with my friend who has pieces of Audible and Justify.  Audible has a chance to qualify--he's the second rated horse in this weekend's FLA derby.   Justify is running in the Arkansas Derby.  Here's Justify working 5 furlongs in 59.60 on Monday.

 

[chet]

Florida Derby Post Draw:

1. Strike Power

2. Millionaire Runner

3. Tip Sheet

4. Promises Fulfilled

5. Storm Runner

6. Catholic Boy

7. Hofburg

8. Audible

9. Mississippi

My friend's horse, Audible, is the pre race favorite at 9-5.

 

[wikkidpissah]

My friend's horse, Audible, is the pre race favorite at 9-5.

It's pretty much consensus in this thread that his last race was the most impressive performance on the DTrail to date

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Florida Derby Post Draw:

1. Strike Power

2. Millionaire Runner

3. Tip Sheet

4. Promises Fulfilled

5. Storm Runner

6. Catholic Boy

7. Hofburg

8. Audible

9. Mississippi

My friend's horse, Audible, is the pre race favorite at 9-5.

sprortsbook.ag has him as the 12-1 8th choice for the KD, but none of their top 7 are entered for Florida.

 

[chet]

sprortsbook.ag has him as the 12-1 8th choice for the KD, but none of their top 7 are entered for Florida.

12-1 as the 8th choice seems way too expensive especially considering he hasn't even qualified.

Could you post the other odds?  Can't pull it up.  thx

 

[otb_lifer]

taking a closer look at Reride, who i have mentioned here in passing a couple/few times ...

horse has been out 5 times, winning 4 of them - only loss was in that now prodigious Kentucky Jockey Club, which has produced four prep winners thus far on the trail, with a couple other Derby timber colts also in that 14 horse field. run back in November, it's proven to be the most flattering race of the season.  he was up on that early pace with Promises Fulfilled, fell back, settled for a respectable 6th. was his first ever try at the dirt route - they wheeled him back in January at a distance cutback, as he nosed a compact field in the Big Drama Stakes at Delta Downs - going the 7f in 1:26.3

Asmussen then shipped him to Sunland for last month's Mine That Bird Derby ... he hooked up in a ding-dong with last week's Sunland Derby winner Runaway Ghost - who tried desperately to pass but was turned back and beaten by a few lengths - Reride hit the wire looking like he had some more left in the tank ... those two were comfortably clear by close to 15 lengths to the rest of 'em. 

curiously enough, Asmussen decided to skip the Sunland Derby, and now ships all the way across the world to Dubai, for this Saturday's UAE Derby ... he did have success here last year with another Candy Ride progeny in Gun Runner, so here we go again?  it's a 100/40/20/10 affair, and top Euro contenders Mendelssohn (talked about here) and Gold Town are awaiting, and have been installed as the m/l favorites at 8-5, 2-1, respectively.   Gold Town just scored a remarkably impressive win over this track, taking the UAE 2000 Guineas by an easy eight lengths.  that was an eye-popper 

 Reride is 9/2 m/l, and will break from the three hole, with Mendelssohn/Gold Town in the four/five gates.  of note, this will be the first dirt start for the favorite, last time out was first off the turf. 

the Asmussen trainee needs to win/place to continue on to Churchill - will have more when i can snag the PPs, but it is a very competitive field, no question - he's really gonna earn it if he qualifies. Runaway Ghost just flattered him, and i believe he is very live for Saturday ... also gets the services of Javi Castellano, who skips the Fla. Derby to ship for Asmussen.  

 

[Leroy Hoard]

12-1 as the 8th choice seems way too expensive especially considering he hasn't even qualified.

Could you post the other odds?  Can't pull it up.  thx

Here is everyone 60-1 or less:

Odds to win 2018 Kentucky Derby (5/5/18) - per Sportsbook.ag

Bolt D'oro 3/1
Justify 4/1
McKinzie 5/1
Good Magic 6/1
Magnum Moon 6/1
My Boy Jack 8/1
Mask 9/1
Audible 12/1
Montauk 12/1
Beautiful Shot 13/1
Saxon Warrior 13/1
Catholic Boy 15/1
Enticed 15/1
Instilled Regard 15/1
Solomini 15/1
Sporting Chance 15/1
Noble Indy 18/1
Storm Runner 20/1
Ax Man 25/1
Kanthaka 25/1
Avery Island 30/1
Bravazo 30/1
Free Drop Billy 30/1
Principe Guilherme 30/1
Lone Sailor 35/1
Strike Power 35/1
Mendelssohn 40/1
Mourinho 40/1
Promises Fulfilled 40/1
Tiz Mischief 40/1
Untamed Domain 40/1
Vino Rosso 40/1
Runaway Ghost 44/1
Givemeaminit 45/1
Blended Citizen 50/1
Candy Cornell 50/1
Dak Attack 50/1
Firenze Fire 50/1
Analyse It 55/1
Flameaway 55/1
Greyvitos 55/1
Quip 55/1
Septimius Severus 55/1
Combatant 60/1
Gold Town 60/1
Zulfikhar 60/1
 

 

[otb_lifer]

Here is everyone 60-1 or less:

Odds to win 2018 Kentucky Derby (5/5/18) - per Sportsbook.ag

Mourinho 40/1

 

yeah, dunno 'bout that one 

when the #### was that last updated?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

yeah, dunno 'bout that one 

when the #### was that last updated?

Some of these offshores have been known to take action on horses that were literally dead.

 

[chet]

Here is everyone 60-1 or less:

Odds to win 2018 Kentucky Derby (5/5/18) - per Sportsbook.ag

Bolt D'oro 3/1
Justify 4/1
McKinzie 5/1
Good Magic 6/1
Magnum Moon 6/1
My Boy Jack 8/1
Mask 9/1
Audible 12/1
Montauk 12/1
Beautiful Shot 13/1
Saxon Warrior 13/1
Catholic Boy 15/1
Enticed 15/1
Instilled Regard 15/1
Solomini 15/1
Sporting Chance 15/1
Noble Indy 18/1
Storm Runner 20/1
Ax Man 25/1
Kanthaka 25/1
Avery Island 30/1
Bravazo 30/1
Free Drop Billy 30/1
Principe Guilherme 30/1
Lone Sailor 35/1
Strike Power 35/1
Mendelssohn 40/1
Mourinho 40/1
Promises Fulfilled 40/1
Tiz Mischief 40/1
Untamed Domain 40/1
Vino Rosso 40/1
Runaway Ghost 44/1
Givemeaminit 45/1
Blended Citizen 50/1
Candy Cornell 50/1
Dak Attack 50/1
Firenze Fire 50/1
Analyse It 55/1
Flameaway 55/1
Greyvitos 55/1
Quip 55/1
Septimius Severus 55/1
Combatant 60/1
Gold Town 60/1
Zulfikhar 60/1
 

How is Justify 4-1?  He hasn't qualified.  I highly doubt his price will be that high if he makes the race!  What do I know though.  Hope he or Audible wins for my friend's sake.

 

[otb_lifer]

Some of these offshores have been known to take action on horses that were literally dead.

Mask and Montauk, two of their top ten, are both off the Derby trail - alive, yes - but no shot in hell for May 5th. 

 

[wikkidpissah]

I got a horse right here

His name is Paul Revere

Eight-to-one in the futures

Now, ain't that queer?!

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I got a horse right here

His name is Paul Revere

Eight-to-one in the futures

Now, ain't that queer?!

The British had a saying for Paul Revere. "#### you and the horse you rode in on!!!"

 

[wikkidpissah]

The British had a saying for Paul Revere. "#### you and the horse you rode in on!!!"

Oh, yeah?! One if by dis, two if by deeeez, ya limey peckaheads!

 

[chet]

How is Justify 4-1?  He hasn't qualified.  I highly doubt his price will be that high if he makes the race!  What do I know though.  Hope he or Audible wins for my friend's sake.

Here's another site that lets you compare prices across  books.  Justify looks to be 10-1 to 12-1 elsewhere.

 

[otb_lifer]

Florida Derby Formulator PPs

for the good stuff, go Here, find Audible - and click "Ultimate PPs" 

wouldn't be surprised to see any of six horses take this one down ... not a slam dunk for the fave 

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Florida Derby Formulator PPs

for the good stuff, go Here, find Audible - and click "Ultimate PPs" 

wouldn't be surprised to see any of six horses take this one down ... not a slam dunk for the fave 

Still on the fence on whether or not to make the drive down.  Tepid endorsement from the wife, but she seemed more amenable when I told her there is a casino and a mall at Gulfstream.  If I do go, I'm going to need to hit something meaty to offset the inevitable cost of this day trip.  A 3 hour drive home half-bombed and out a grand is going to be miserable.

 

[otb_lifer]

Still on the fence on whether or not to make the drive down.  Tepid endorsement from the wife, but she seemed more amenable when I told her there is a casino and a mall at Gulfstream.  If I do go, I'm going to need to hit something meaty to offset the inevitable cost of this day trip.  A 3 hour drive home half-bombed and out a grand is going to be miserable.

 if y'all can bag the Divas and Dudes hat contest the day won't be a total loss 

amazing card tomorrow, hope you make it and cash some tix

 

[shadrap]

About 2h 45m for me, that's the only dissuading factor. Although, I could stop at Primanti Bros. In Lauderdale on the way. Going to be kind of a tough sell to the Mrs... I'll need her to drive home since there's no way I wouldn't be having multiple beers. 

I like it when a guy knows his behavior before he does it.  kudos.

 

[wikkidpissah]

for those of us who hasnt otb's streaming capacities & cant stop for Primanti's on the way, NBCSN is broadcasting the Fla Derby @ 6pm (and the Dubai World Cup - i dunno if the UAE Derby is covered too - earlier @ 12:30) 

 

[otb_lifer]

for those of us who hasnt otb's streaming capacities & cant stop for Primanti's on the way

don't hate the playas, hate the game - me & EG are bigshots, dont'cha know 

NBCSN is broadcasting the Fla Derby @ 6pm (and the Dubai World Cup - i dunno if the UAE Derby is covered too - earlier @ 12:30) 

UAE Derby 9:30a my time ... early drinking day for me as i am pounding  Reride 'til my ####### knuckles bleed  

 

[Evilgrin 72]

 if y'all can bag the Divas and Dudes hat contest the day won't be a total loss 

amazing card tomorrow, hope you make it and cash some tix

Do you (or anyone here) know exactly how the Rainbow 6 works?  This could be a big selling point I could use for the wife, if she thinks she has a shot at $4.6M, that will help get her firmly on board.  Do you have to pick 6 specific races or can you use any 6?  Can you play all 14 races in an attempt to hit 6 or can you play 6 races only, etc?  I've never been a huge pick 3/pick 4 guy, but IIRC, they usually have specific races you have to use (races 2-5, etc.) but it doesn't appear that's the case with the Rainbow 6.  Anyone know how that all plays out?