wikkidpissah
Footballguy
where my Mississippi at?!
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** Road To The 2018 Triple Crown - 5/10: Justy Back On (The) Track, Ruis Will Ship Bolty/Duck The Rain ** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter otb_lifer
- Start date
otb_lifer
Footballguy
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
The Rebel's kind of a big step for a NW2, aint it?! He's w MCasse right - is he one to go light with his contenders?otb_lifer said:
otb_lifer
Footballguy
he's currently slotted as "possible", and will definitely be nominated - nothing else currently lined up on his dance card - 4 weeks to go if they opt to keep him on the trail.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Threw a $5 free bet on Supreme Aura
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Gary Stevens jumps off the mount, and leading Fair Grounds jock Miguel Mena picked it up - #7 Bravazo takes the Risen Star at 21/1 ... barely nosed out 41/1 shot #4 Snapper Sinclair in a dynamite photo finish ... Instilled Regard finishes fourth, Supreme Aura had zero interest today.
the Lukas trained winner just punched his ticket for the Derby.
$645 exacta if ya had it
El Camino Real in 35 minutes ...
the Lukas trained winner just punched his ticket for the Derby.
$645 exacta if ya had it
El Camino Real in 35 minutes ...
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
#1 Paved slaps the boys around to bag the El Camino ... she rated beautifully off early speed from the #6 and #9 - took command in the stretch, and held off a late charging City Plan to win by a couple lengths. she looked very efficient out there, and certainly seemed like she had more at the wire if needed.
Tom Rathman doing the Trophy Presentation
Tom Rathman doing the Trophy Presentation
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
Had Paved today. One of just a few tickets I cashed. Pure grass/synthetic horse. Doubt will even see the rest of the Derby trail#1 Paved slaps the boys around to bag the El Camino ... she rated beautifully off early speed from the #6 and #9 - took command in the stretch, and held off a late charging City Plan to win by a couple lengths. she looked very efficient out there, and certainly seemed like she had more at the wire if needed.
Tom Rathman doing the Trophy Presentation
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Bravazo wins the Risen Star
very disappointed with Instilled Regard - though this was a better field than the Lecomte, it certainly wasn't "top-notch" horseflesh out there. the two leaders got out to some tepid fractions, then just held court down the stretch ... IR was in position, the GO!! button was faulty. even more disappointing for the Principe Guilherme connections - he was the most touted of this lot down there heading into the 2018 stakes season - gonna have to show up big in the Louisiana Derby to register a pulse going forward - not a great batch to conquer, so he's as good a prospect as any atm.
major props to Miggy Mena and Lukas - Stevens drops the mount, and the circuit's hottest rider boots home the 21/1 shot - Bravazo will be in Churchill, barring injury/monkey shines/chicanery/tom foolery/etc.
hard luck second place Snapper Sinclair (love that name) is now firmly on the KD bubble.
Paved wins the El Camino (link to KD homepage replay)
Quality Road is gettin' it done as sire
not much to add here, as the field was bereft of any serious KD contenders - but, still, points were awarded, so ... congrats to the winning connections, this was a very choice spot for her to break through - the Filly ran a very tight race - but, as Smails alluded to, she may not even continue on the trail. it's a crowded, top heavy lot out West, so she's gonna have to make some real noise, vs the big boys on dirt, before we can even consider her a bubble horse ... so, yeah, it's not gonna happen, folks.
very disappointed with Instilled Regard - though this was a better field than the Lecomte, it certainly wasn't "top-notch" horseflesh out there. the two leaders got out to some tepid fractions, then just held court down the stretch ... IR was in position, the GO!! button was faulty. even more disappointing for the Principe Guilherme connections - he was the most touted of this lot down there heading into the 2018 stakes season - gonna have to show up big in the Louisiana Derby to register a pulse going forward - not a great batch to conquer, so he's as good a prospect as any atm.
major props to Miggy Mena and Lukas - Stevens drops the mount, and the circuit's hottest rider boots home the 21/1 shot - Bravazo will be in Churchill, barring injury/monkey shines/chicanery/tom foolery/etc.
hard luck second place Snapper Sinclair (love that name) is now firmly on the KD bubble.
Paved wins the El Camino (link to KD homepage replay)
Quality Road is gettin' it done as sire
not much to add here, as the field was bereft of any serious KD contenders - but, still, points were awarded, so ... congrats to the winning connections, this was a very choice spot for her to break through - the Filly ran a very tight race - but, as Smails alluded to, she may not even continue on the trail. it's a crowded, top heavy lot out West, so she's gonna have to make some real noise, vs the big boys on dirt, before we can even consider her a bubble horse ... so, yeah, it's not gonna happen, folks.
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wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Thx for the coverage, as always, my ticket-tearing guttersnipe.
Really hard to judge this class so far because virtually every prep winner to this point has done so by clipping a :24quarter pace all around the track, with a surprising number of them being allowed to do so on the front end. My tack on the Derby Trail has always been has always been to look for the "move" horses because they are more likely to improve with experience, but i'm empty so far. Audible's the best i've seen so far this season, i'd say
Really hard to judge this class so far because virtually every prep winner to this point has done so by clipping a :24quarter pace all around the track, with a surprising number of them being allowed to do so on the front end. My tack on the Derby Trail has always been has always been to look for the "move" horses because they are more likely to improve with experience, but i'm empty so far. Audible's the best i've seen so far this season, i'd say
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Gr.III Southwest Stakes down in Oaklawn today - the last of the 10/4/2/1 variety - a win guarantees a gate in Churchill in the preps going forward, as 20+ points has been the cutoff since the points system was put in place.
last time here we saw the Baffert trained Mourinho wire 'em in the Smarty Jones - nobody went with, and the 3/5 favorite cruised in what was essentially a paid workout. had it all his way from the git.
so today we get a deeper (11 horse) field, and some early speed to test the 2/1 ml fave, as they stretch out from the 1m Smarty to 1 1/16th. will be interesting to see how Baffert/Van Dyke play this one, as the early fractions should be contentious with the likes of Retirement Fund/Road To Damascus/Sporting Chance/Seven Trumpets/Ezmosh up front setting the numbers, giving Mourinho plenty of company this time out. would expect him to lay slightly off early, but these are some decent quality colts, who may be able to exert enough pressure to make the fave move a bit quicker than planned.
that's where Combatant comes in ... if there is a pace meltdown, this one will most certainly be there to pick up the pieces ... he chased in the Smarty, but Mourinho was fresh as hell after setting some uncontested comfy fractions - but i think he gets a chance here to come late into a much quicker pace. this could be the start of a nice run to the roses for this cat, and he is in perfect spot to be that "middle move" horse that @wikkidpissah has been looking for.
My Boy Jack has been primarily a turf runner, was dusted by McKinzie last time out in the Sham, but this projected pace could favor him quite a bit. he may be right there late with Combatant if the front pack is frying fractions.
Asmussen pair of Zing Zang/Retirement Fund have route chops, with the former another one who can come closing if we get some chaos ... his disappointing Lecomte is most unflattering though, seeing as how Instilled Regard/Principe Guilherme just crapped out.
Sporting Chance has never routed, and comes in for Lukas on a five month layoff, last seen lugging out in the stretch while bagging The Hopeful up at the Spa, in with some familiar Derby trail names. the class is there, and, as is the case with so many, needs to pass his route/two turn test - great spot for him to jump into the picture with his 2018 debut - been working well leading up.
Mourinho is the class here, and has been working well - oh, and Baffert + Oaklawn = $$$$$$ - but i am leaning towards Combatant taking charge late and stamping a Derby ticket.
Formulator PPs Here
last time here we saw the Baffert trained Mourinho wire 'em in the Smarty Jones - nobody went with, and the 3/5 favorite cruised in what was essentially a paid workout. had it all his way from the git.
so today we get a deeper (11 horse) field, and some early speed to test the 2/1 ml fave, as they stretch out from the 1m Smarty to 1 1/16th. will be interesting to see how Baffert/Van Dyke play this one, as the early fractions should be contentious with the likes of Retirement Fund/Road To Damascus/Sporting Chance/Seven Trumpets/Ezmosh up front setting the numbers, giving Mourinho plenty of company this time out. would expect him to lay slightly off early, but these are some decent quality colts, who may be able to exert enough pressure to make the fave move a bit quicker than planned.
that's where Combatant comes in ... if there is a pace meltdown, this one will most certainly be there to pick up the pieces ... he chased in the Smarty, but Mourinho was fresh as hell after setting some uncontested comfy fractions - but i think he gets a chance here to come late into a much quicker pace. this could be the start of a nice run to the roses for this cat, and he is in perfect spot to be that "middle move" horse that @wikkidpissah has been looking for.
My Boy Jack has been primarily a turf runner, was dusted by McKinzie last time out in the Sham, but this projected pace could favor him quite a bit. he may be right there late with Combatant if the front pack is frying fractions.
Asmussen pair of Zing Zang/Retirement Fund have route chops, with the former another one who can come closing if we get some chaos ... his disappointing Lecomte is most unflattering though, seeing as how Instilled Regard/Principe Guilherme just crapped out.
Sporting Chance has never routed, and comes in for Lukas on a five month layoff, last seen lugging out in the stretch while bagging The Hopeful up at the Spa, in with some familiar Derby trail names. the class is there, and, as is the case with so many, needs to pass his route/two turn test - great spot for him to jump into the picture with his 2018 debut - been working well leading up.
Mourinho is the class here, and has been working well - oh, and Baffert + Oaklawn = $$$$$$ - but i am leaning towards Combatant taking charge late and stamping a Derby ticket.
Formulator PPs Here
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
This is the best thread in the FFA. @otb_lifer is like having a personal sherpa through all the preps. I learn so much reading this thread and always have a blast doing it. 10/10, A++++++, would bang.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
I'm a rookie in this horse racing game, so I'm grateful for the thread. Does anyone play on TVG? I heard there was a way to "save" horses so you could get notifications when they run, has anyone figured this out?
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Desormeaux goes all "Bo-Rail" with My Boy Jack, comfortably booting home on a muddy Oaklawn track to snag The Southwest (KD Homepage Replay)
Mourinho got out early, but was pressured much more than in the Smarty, as expected ... he actually had the lead turning for home, but you could tell he was softened up enough to be ripe for the pickin' - Combatant was about four wide, and looked to be in best position, but, wait ... who is that skimming the rail? yeah, Kent D zipping through, off a textbook ground saving trip, with MBJ - and they kicked clear to romp home by 4 1/2. we got ourselves a legit mudder here.
was some rough stuff in the stretch which resulted in a lengthy inquiry ... Sporting Chance was the filler in a Mourinho/Combatant sandwich, and, imo, it kinda took some steam outta Combatant - bumped him out juuuuuust a bit wider - but don't think he would've closed down the winner ... may have been a closer finish without the bump, but MBJ was probably not gonna be caught. of note, that is his third straight second place finish in these preps ... meager points are being accumulated, but looks destined to bag one of the 20 starting gates at Churchill.
off track can certainly be cited by the also-rans, but i think this race would've played out much the same on a fast surface - Mourinho was gonna get tested with some upfront heat, and there were colts in here quite capable of picking up the pieces of a hot pace.
MBJ next up in the Rebel (3/17)? (rumblings of any combo of Good Magic/Solomini/Bolt D'Oro shipping down to Oaklawn for St. Patty's day - or any of those could go in the San Felipe (3/10) at Santa Anita), or he could sit 'til Arkansas Derby (4/14) ...
Mourinho got out early, but was pressured much more than in the Smarty, as expected ... he actually had the lead turning for home, but you could tell he was softened up enough to be ripe for the pickin' - Combatant was about four wide, and looked to be in best position, but, wait ... who is that skimming the rail? yeah, Kent D zipping through, off a textbook ground saving trip, with MBJ - and they kicked clear to romp home by 4 1/2. we got ourselves a legit mudder here.
was some rough stuff in the stretch which resulted in a lengthy inquiry ... Sporting Chance was the filler in a Mourinho/Combatant sandwich, and, imo, it kinda took some steam outta Combatant - bumped him out juuuuuust a bit wider - but don't think he would've closed down the winner ... may have been a closer finish without the bump, but MBJ was probably not gonna be caught. of note, that is his third straight second place finish in these preps ... meager points are being accumulated, but looks destined to bag one of the 20 starting gates at Churchill.
off track can certainly be cited by the also-rans, but i think this race would've played out much the same on a fast surface - Mourinho was gonna get tested with some upfront heat, and there were colts in here quite capable of picking up the pieces of a hot pace.
MBJ next up in the Rebel (3/17)? (rumblings of any combo of Good Magic/Solomini/Bolt D'Oro shipping down to Oaklawn for St. Patty's day - or any of those could go in the San Felipe (3/10) at Santa Anita), or he could sit 'til Arkansas Derby (4/14) ...
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Conditions set Sporting Chance up for possible price play next time out. First race off big summer 2yo campaign, first two turns, shied from splashouts 3-4 times around the course, totally gassed at the end.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
and as i mentioned in my lead up, he was working very well - hell of a maelstrom to get tossed into first off the five month bench - he will be a player going forward - think Reb/Arky path is gonna be the way.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
slapped all preps in chrono order up in first post
huge one coming up Saturday at Gulfstream, as Good Magic makes his 2018 debut in the 50/20/10/5 Fountain of Youth - foaled on 3/1/15, the legit three year old comes off the four month bench to celebrate with a 1 1/16th test ... race will also feature wiseguy fave Strike Power making his initial splash on the Derby Trail.
will have more on the F.o.Y. as the week goes on ...
ETA: Haskins Latest Derby Dozen
huge one coming up Saturday at Gulfstream, as Good Magic makes his 2018 debut in the 50/20/10/5 Fountain of Youth - foaled on 3/1/15, the legit three year old comes off the four month bench to celebrate with a 1 1/16th test ... race will also feature wiseguy fave Strike Power making his initial splash on the Derby Trail.
will have more on the F.o.Y. as the week goes on ...
ETA: Haskins Latest Derby Dozen
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
looks like a scant seven horse field for the Fountain of Youth ... along with Good Magic and Strike Power we will most likely see Promises Fulfilled/Marconi/Belle Tapisserie/Free Drop Billy/Storm Runner - no excuses for far outside post, as can be troublesome down at Gulfstream with that very quick run-up to the first turn ...
sift through the PPs for all nominated to find the magnificent seven
some of the works leading up, most notably Good Magic
ABR with a trend that plays against Good Magic
sift through the PPs for all nominated to find the magnificent seven
some of the works leading up, most notably Good Magic
ABR with a trend that plays against Good Magic
otb_lifer
Footballguy
we have swelled up to a 10 horse field for Saturday
love Strike Power in the 4 hole, he can be controlling speed with no problem if they turn him loose - inside of the favorite, so he will be less encumbered motoring up to that short first turn.
after watching that romp in the Swale a couple times (see link to race in Monday's post) he's starting to remind me of Always Dreaming - he owns two blazing sprint wins on this track, and, as was pointed out in previous post, prior outings on the Gulfstream surface are playing at an extremely high percentage clip for the eventual winners of the F.o.Y. - first two turn route test, but this is one who could move up in a big way if he gets the distance - tough spot, as he's gonna have to prove route chops while tangling with the current consensus top Derby contender in Good Magic - this is shaking out to be a very pivotal prep.
$400,000 Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth (G2)
1 – He Takes Charge – 20-1
2 – Free Drop Billy – 9-2
3 – Peppered – 30-1
4 – Strike Power – 4-1
5 – Storm Runner – 15-1
6 – Good Magic – 7-5
7 – Gotta Go – 10-1
8 – Marconi – 8-1
9 – Machismo – 15-1
10 – Promises Fulfilled – 20-1
love Strike Power in the 4 hole, he can be controlling speed with no problem if they turn him loose - inside of the favorite, so he will be less encumbered motoring up to that short first turn.
after watching that romp in the Swale a couple times (see link to race in Monday's post) he's starting to remind me of Always Dreaming - he owns two blazing sprint wins on this track, and, as was pointed out in previous post, prior outings on the Gulfstream surface are playing at an extremely high percentage clip for the eventual winners of the F.o.Y. - first two turn route test, but this is one who could move up in a big way if he gets the distance - tough spot, as he's gonna have to prove route chops while tangling with the current consensus top Derby contender in Good Magic - this is shaking out to be a very pivotal prep.
$400,000 Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth (G2)
1 – He Takes Charge – 20-1
2 – Free Drop Billy – 9-2
3 – Peppered – 30-1
4 – Strike Power – 4-1
5 – Storm Runner – 15-1
6 – Good Magic – 7-5
7 – Gotta Go – 10-1
8 – Marconi – 8-1
9 – Machismo – 15-1
10 – Promises Fulfilled – 20-1
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wikkidpissah
Footballguy
the choice of 5 1/2f in DECEMBER for a debut, the final quarter @ 7f, even on a hand ride, & the honest contest Promises Fulfilled could give him up front give me pause, but it will be interesting to watchwe have swelled up to a 10 horse field for Saturday
love Strike Power in the 4 hole, he can be controlling speed with no problem if they turn him loose - inside of the favorite, so he will be less encumbered motoring up to that short first turn.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
PF gonna have to hustle out that 10 hole, hard used to pass the inside engines ... that first turn is deadly for outside goers ...intriguing prep to sink the 'capping chops into
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Promises Fulfilled hustles out that far post and wires 'em in The Fountain of Youth (link to KD homepage replay) - the 18/1 shot bagged 50 points, punches himself a ticket to Churchill.
we have the most wide open (uninspiring?) crop i can remember - twenty one preps have now been run, featuring nineteen different winners (only McKinzie/Firenze Fire have repeated).
Bolt d'Oro, McKinzie - probable for next week's San Felipe at Santa Anita ... once again, the West is lookin' to be the best - someone's gotta step up here, and those two are as good as we have this go 'round.
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Surprised Strike Power couldn't reel PF in on the stretch. Odd run from Good Magic - made his bid 3 wide and looked to be toast. I was waiting for him to fall all the way back. Then, hold on, someone is coming up to challenge the leaders in the stretch....looked like a deep closer making a move. As I am wont to do, I'm looking to see who this is.. Huh? It's Good Magic. Does he have a shot to catc....nope. Falling off again.
Not sure what to make of this one. I don't think it tells us much vis-a-vis Churchill.
Not sure what to make of this one. I don't think it tells us much vis-a-vis Churchill.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
yeah, Strike Power had distance questions coming in ... he may be one who wants no part of anything over the 7f he last ran in ... may get himself enough to be a nice mile runner, but who knows ... i think they will aim him for the Florida Derby, seeing as how hitting any spot in the super guarantees him Churchill stock.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Futures Pool #3 opens on Friday, and Bolt d'Oro will be co-favorite with the field - both at 6/1
PPs for the 23 nominated in the pool Here
current Vegas odds Flameaway at 50/1 is the one that jumps out the most, this cat has done it on all surfaces, all track conditions, distances - has yet to be nominated, but is on the way, per his connections ... performance in Tampa is gonna tell the tale on that count.
huge weekend with the Gotham (Firenze Fire/Free Drop Billy/Enticed) Tampa Bay Derby (Flameaway/Tiz Mischief/Vino Rosso) and the big one out West, the San Felipe (McKinzie/Bolt d'Oro/Ayacara/Lombo) all set for Saturday.
PPs for the 23 nominated in the pool Here
current Vegas odds Flameaway at 50/1 is the one that jumps out the most, this cat has done it on all surfaces, all track conditions, distances - has yet to be nominated, but is on the way, per his connections ... performance in Tampa is gonna tell the tale on that count.
huge weekend with the Gotham (Firenze Fire/Free Drop Billy/Enticed) Tampa Bay Derby (Flameaway/Tiz Mischief/Vino Rosso) and the big one out West, the San Felipe (McKinzie/Bolt d'Oro/Ayacara/Lombo) all set for Saturday.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
officially eight weeks away from Churchill, and today is the biggest yet of the prep season - plenty of horses who look like Derby starters featured through these three tests ... in the order they will be run:
Tampa Bay Derby PPs
Flameaway is back, looking to follow up his win in the Sam Davis, where he got out early, then had enough to turn back prohibitive favorite Catholic Boy - was his first start on dirt since Sept. '17, and he bagged a cool 101 for his efforts. his works have been spotty leading up, but with the defections of Enticed/Free Drop Billy to the Gotham, he is looking like the class here, and is a tepid 3/1 ml favorite. Vino Rosso closed with authority in the Davis, finishing a length and change behind the winner - Pletcher has had great success in this prep, winning four outta the last five ... if the pace is too hot, expect to see Johnny V closing with a bid to take this one down. now, if that pace is hot, expect it to be courtesy of World of Trouble, who annihilated them by 13 lengths last time out on this track in the Pasco (also a 101 sf) - he's gonna give 'em all they can handle on the front today ... would expect Flameaway to sit off the first time router, who looms very large as one who could get away and hide from this field. Tiz Mischief is coming second off the layoff for Romans, and could also be a huge benefactor of a collapsing hot pace ... disappointing Holy Bull last out, but was game enough in the Kentucky Jockey Cup to warrant serious consideration here if he runs back. has been working well.
San Felipe PPs
big time Derby contenders Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie return for this 1 1/16th prep at Santa Anita, installed as 2/1 - 8/5, respectively. first time out for Bolt since a brutal trip in the BC Juvey back in Nov. '17 - was undefeated in three starts prior , increasing distance and sf each time ... has been working lights out leading up - as solid a three year old as we have this year, but he needs to shake an awful lot of rust off ... key is emerging sound (he took some time off training for "soreness"), and flashing back the form we saw last year ... trip should not be a problem today, as he draws favorably in a compact field. was concerns he might be scratched due to the rainy forecast for this race (opting for next week's Rebel, instead), but connections have allowed that he will be a definite GO no matter what the conditions. McKinzie was last seen here two months ago, making an impressive score in the Sham, a race that has since been flattered with My Boy Jack's win in the Southwest at Oaklawn. a deserving favorite for the dynamite Baffert/Smith connection, he's been in triple digits in all three of his starts - has been working well (and at longer distances than Bolt), galloping out very smoothly after his last 7f jaunt. potential gatecrasher i'm keeping my eye on is Kanthaka - Hollendorfer is stretching him out, and he has been on a very steady sf incline through his three starts - last time out over this track he made an awesome late move, four wide, to blow them out in the San Vicente - sire (Jimmy Creed) has sprint/miler limitations, but hard to overlook a colt who is maturing into a legit player. Aquila takes a huge step up in class, but the Union Rags offspring is on the upswing ... can certainly get the distance, but, again, a very steep jump into this field - he may be the pace setter. Lombo and Ayacara were both last out in the Robert Lewis, with the Desourmeaux bros. entry closing well on the winner.
The Gotham PPs
it looked for awhile that Firenze Fire was the runaway "Great Right (coast) Hope" - but then came Avery Island (who was actually bet down to even money favorite) and the Withers - today's prep is dialed back to 1m, and he's won his last two at that distance, most notably the Champagne, where he came charging late and wide to turn back Good Magic - was his best effort yet, breaking from the 12 hole, laying back off the early fractions, then pickin' them on up - that was the one that turned so many on to this Servis trained colt - installed at 3/1 ml, behind 2/1 favorite Free Drop Billy, who was yanked from last week's F.o.Y. and pointed here - last time out he was left in the dust by Audible, who ran perhaps the most impressive prep yet in the Holy Bull - don't think any of this year's crop was catching the winner that day, and FDB has been keeping impressive stakes company for quite awhile - best effort was this romp in last October's Breeders Cup Futurity at Keeneland, flattered very much by second place Bravazo recently scoring in the Risen Star. has not been working well (Gulfstream), but the pace today could set up very well for his style. Enticed made a big splash in the Kentucky Jockey Club - making a late charge down the middle, edging out Tiz Mischief to bag the win amidst a very crowded and stacked field of Derby hopefuls - flattered with the score of Promises Fulfilled in last week's Fountain of Youth. was also his highest sf to date. Beautiful Shot ships cross country, and stretches out for this one turn mile ... has been keeping company with a much deeper crop out there, check out this late rally to nail the 1/5 favorite (and Baffert bullet/early Derby darling) Mourinho in last October's Speakeasy - Arroyo gets the mount for Desourmeaux, and i am keeping an eye on this one.
Tampa Bay Derby PPs
Flameaway is back, looking to follow up his win in the Sam Davis, where he got out early, then had enough to turn back prohibitive favorite Catholic Boy - was his first start on dirt since Sept. '17, and he bagged a cool 101 for his efforts. his works have been spotty leading up, but with the defections of Enticed/Free Drop Billy to the Gotham, he is looking like the class here, and is a tepid 3/1 ml favorite. Vino Rosso closed with authority in the Davis, finishing a length and change behind the winner - Pletcher has had great success in this prep, winning four outta the last five ... if the pace is too hot, expect to see Johnny V closing with a bid to take this one down. now, if that pace is hot, expect it to be courtesy of World of Trouble, who annihilated them by 13 lengths last time out on this track in the Pasco (also a 101 sf) - he's gonna give 'em all they can handle on the front today ... would expect Flameaway to sit off the first time router, who looms very large as one who could get away and hide from this field. Tiz Mischief is coming second off the layoff for Romans, and could also be a huge benefactor of a collapsing hot pace ... disappointing Holy Bull last out, but was game enough in the Kentucky Jockey Cup to warrant serious consideration here if he runs back. has been working well.
San Felipe PPs
big time Derby contenders Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie return for this 1 1/16th prep at Santa Anita, installed as 2/1 - 8/5, respectively. first time out for Bolt since a brutal trip in the BC Juvey back in Nov. '17 - was undefeated in three starts prior , increasing distance and sf each time ... has been working lights out leading up - as solid a three year old as we have this year, but he needs to shake an awful lot of rust off ... key is emerging sound (he took some time off training for "soreness"), and flashing back the form we saw last year ... trip should not be a problem today, as he draws favorably in a compact field. was concerns he might be scratched due to the rainy forecast for this race (opting for next week's Rebel, instead), but connections have allowed that he will be a definite GO no matter what the conditions. McKinzie was last seen here two months ago, making an impressive score in the Sham, a race that has since been flattered with My Boy Jack's win in the Southwest at Oaklawn. a deserving favorite for the dynamite Baffert/Smith connection, he's been in triple digits in all three of his starts - has been working well (and at longer distances than Bolt), galloping out very smoothly after his last 7f jaunt. potential gatecrasher i'm keeping my eye on is Kanthaka - Hollendorfer is stretching him out, and he has been on a very steady sf incline through his three starts - last time out over this track he made an awesome late move, four wide, to blow them out in the San Vicente - sire (Jimmy Creed) has sprint/miler limitations, but hard to overlook a colt who is maturing into a legit player. Aquila takes a huge step up in class, but the Union Rags offspring is on the upswing ... can certainly get the distance, but, again, a very steep jump into this field - he may be the pace setter. Lombo and Ayacara were both last out in the Robert Lewis, with the Desourmeaux bros. entry closing well on the winner.
The Gotham PPs
it looked for awhile that Firenze Fire was the runaway "Great Right (coast) Hope" - but then came Avery Island (who was actually bet down to even money favorite) and the Withers - today's prep is dialed back to 1m, and he's won his last two at that distance, most notably the Champagne, where he came charging late and wide to turn back Good Magic - was his best effort yet, breaking from the 12 hole, laying back off the early fractions, then pickin' them on up - that was the one that turned so many on to this Servis trained colt - installed at 3/1 ml, behind 2/1 favorite Free Drop Billy, who was yanked from last week's F.o.Y. and pointed here - last time out he was left in the dust by Audible, who ran perhaps the most impressive prep yet in the Holy Bull - don't think any of this year's crop was catching the winner that day, and FDB has been keeping impressive stakes company for quite awhile - best effort was this romp in last October's Breeders Cup Futurity at Keeneland, flattered very much by second place Bravazo recently scoring in the Risen Star. has not been working well (Gulfstream), but the pace today could set up very well for his style. Enticed made a big splash in the Kentucky Jockey Club - making a late charge down the middle, edging out Tiz Mischief to bag the win amidst a very crowded and stacked field of Derby hopefuls - flattered with the score of Promises Fulfilled in last week's Fountain of Youth. was also his highest sf to date. Beautiful Shot ships cross country, and stretches out for this one turn mile ... has been keeping company with a much deeper crop out there, check out this late rally to nail the 1/5 favorite (and Baffert bullet/early Derby darling) Mourinho in last October's Speakeasy - Arroyo gets the mount for Desourmeaux, and i am keeping an eye on this one.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Gotham's a nothinrace walkover for Flamin####er by the looks; TBD sets up nice for Vino Rosso cuz Flameaway's going to have to rate; and i dont think Bolt D'Oro can today catch a McKinzie who it looks will be allowed to click 24s w2w with a big bottom of work put into him by Baffert
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Flamey has come off the pace to score, albeit in his maiden start - this cat is versatile enough to handle whatever they toss at him - but the upfront speed from World of Trouble is no joke, and is gonna give this lot fits - that one could be lethal on the lead today, especially with a favorable bias playing out - he's gonna need to be kept honest.
what really turned me on to Tapwrit last year was his strong finish in the Davis, nipping right on McCracken's tail - feeling likewise with Vino Rosso, who bid similar in same race this year ... both Pletcher trainees, it could pop again for the Toddfather - this one may be that middle mover some are looking for ...
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I kind of hope Vino Rosso doesn't win, but closes hard and falls just short again. If he makes the Derby, that's going to keep his odds higher. Vino Rosso and Audible are setting up to be possible value plays if the Cali horses stay on top of the rankings.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
agreed on those points.
he's sittin' with two measly points atm - now, he certainly can nickel and dime his way into Churchill without winning, as the also-ran rewards crank higher, but i think Pletcber ramps him up today to do all thst's possible to secure the KD gate - can fine tune going forward after all is set -
this is really the big one for his Derby prospects, he fits in very well with this field.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
TB Derby - Quip passed World of Trouble after they dueled on some soft fractions most of the way up front, then had juuuust enough left to hold off a very impressive closing charge by Flameaway, who looked like he wanted a few more furlongs ... 1:44.79, tho 
Gotham - Enticed closed down the middle with some huge strides to corral 35/1 shot Old Time Revival, who looked to be home free through the top of the stretch ... encouraging bounce back for the McLaughlin trained big boy.
San Felipe - all it was billed to be, fantastic stretch run by Bolt d'Oro/McKinzie who were well clear of the field ... rough stuff here, as McKinzie was on the rail ... bumped Bolt a couple times as they ran neck n' neck - could see Javi jawing at Smiff on the gallop out - McK crossed first by a head bob, but the stewards overturned, giving Bolt the win. these are two extremely talented colts, will be deserving of favorite status come May.
more when i get the replays up ...
Gotham - Enticed closed down the middle with some huge strides to corral 35/1 shot Old Time Revival, who looked to be home free through the top of the stretch ... encouraging bounce back for the McLaughlin trained big boy.
San Felipe - all it was billed to be, fantastic stretch run by Bolt d'Oro/McKinzie who were well clear of the field ... rough stuff here, as McKinzie was on the rail ... bumped Bolt a couple times as they ran neck n' neck - could see Javi jawing at Smiff on the gallop out - McK crossed first by a head bob, but the stewards overturned, giving Bolt the win. these are two extremely talented colts, will be deserving of favorite status come May.
more when i get the replays up ...
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Missed all of this while at a charity event (with food poisoning no less) so I'm looking forward to the replays. Thanks for the recaps, GB.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Tampa Bay Derby (link to KD homepage replay) Quip rated off some very soft numbers, Flameaway darting about in the stretch after laying off the pace to come home with some balls in a race that really had none.
Gotham (link to KD homepage replay) what can ya say here, longest shot (35-1) on the board had the race by the throat, then Enticed came rumbling on through ... made a wide move at the 3/4, then used his huge stride to inhale the front runner - came home comfortably in hand. methinks that grueling Jerome score took an awful lot out of Firenze Fire
addendum to the two races, last November's Kentucky Jockey Club has proven to be a very pivotal race, producing prep wins from both Quip and Enticed yesterday, to go along with Bravazo (Risen Star) and Promises Fulfilled (F.o.Y.).
San Felipe speaks for itself, the top two horses going forward (with all due respect to Audible) these are legit heavyweights of the class, and yesterday was a real treat, exemplary of the incredible thrills this gig has to offer - Bolt is a friggin' beast - coming in after a four month layoff, which included rest for soreness, looking like he didn't miss a beat - this cat is just rounding back into form - imagine what he'll do once he's "sound" again (Ruis stated prior to the race that he just wanted a nice run in this "stepping stone"). meanwhile, McKinzie got one earlier from Solomini in the Los Al Cash Call, so, we even now? 
Gotham (link to KD homepage replay) what can ya say here, longest shot (35-1) on the board had the race by the throat, then Enticed came rumbling on through ... made a wide move at the 3/4, then used his huge stride to inhale the front runner - came home comfortably in hand. methinks that grueling Jerome score took an awful lot out of Firenze Fire
addendum to the two races, last November's Kentucky Jockey Club has proven to be a very pivotal race, producing prep wins from both Quip and Enticed yesterday, to go along with Bravazo (Risen Star) and Promises Fulfilled (F.o.Y.).
San Felipe speaks for itself, the top two horses going forward (with all due respect to Audible) these are legit heavyweights of the class, and yesterday was a real treat, exemplary of the incredible thrills this gig has to offer
- Bolt is a friggin' beast - coming in after a four month layoff, which included rest for soreness, looking like he didn't miss a beat - this cat is just rounding back into form - imagine what he'll do once he's "sound" again (Ruis stated prior to the race that he just wanted a nice run in this "stepping stone"). meanwhile, McKinzie got one earlier from Solomini in the Los Al Cash Call, so, we even now?
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Justify finishes as the second choice (6/1) behind the field (4/1) at the close of futures pool #3 - was initially installed at 15/1, but after this blazing effort (race vid starts at :30) over the mud at Santa Anita yesterday - WOW 
... up he done did shoot.
was only the second career start for the Baffert trained flyer, notable also for the switch to Smiff, after Van Dyke kinda bucked Baffert in the debut by letting him out a tad too early ... top rider for top trainer - this was a scintillating display. vid of his work leading up.
been 135 years since we had a winner at the Derby that did not race as a two year old ... so, either this colt is the easiest toss from the top of your tickets, or you believe that all trends must eventually be bucked - but, damn ... that's been as solid a lock as we've had in a game that offers virtually none.
now this cat gotta accumulate some points ... he'll get one shot, would think Baffert opts for Arkansas Derby (4/14), effectively avoiding Bolt and McKinzie in the S.A. Derby (4/7) ... or talk of Baffert shipping McKinzie there instead, and taking his next shot at Bolt with this big fella he already has Solomini lined up for the Rebel down there on this coming Saturday, and a win would slot that one in for KD (also lining up will be decent contenders in My Boy Jack, Combatant, Sporting Chance) ... Mourinho (another Baffert) is also nominated, but may opt for Sunland Derby (3/25) instead - best spot for that one to punch his Churchill pass.
dunno, Baffert running Justify and McKinzie both at S.A. Derby? yeah, McKinzie is already IN, but ownership wants to bag that pelt - gotta think one is gonna ship to Oaklawn, where he has had tremendous success ... gonna be a fun final two months with all of this
... up he done did shoot. was only the second career start for the Baffert trained flyer, notable also for the switch to Smiff, after Van Dyke kinda bucked Baffert in the debut by letting him out a tad too early ... top rider for top trainer - this was a scintillating display. vid of his work leading up.
been 135 years since we had a winner at the Derby that did not race as a two year old ... so, either this colt is the easiest toss from the top of your tickets, or you believe that all trends must eventually be bucked - but, damn ... that's been as solid a lock as we've had in a game that offers virtually none.
now this cat gotta accumulate some points ... he'll get one shot, would think Baffert opts for Arkansas Derby (4/14), effectively avoiding Bolt and McKinzie in the S.A. Derby (4/7) ... or talk of Baffert shipping McKinzie there instead, and taking his next shot at Bolt with this big fella
he already has Solomini lined up for the Rebel down there on this coming Saturday, and a win would slot that one in for KD (also lining up will be decent contenders in My Boy Jack, Combatant, Sporting Chance) ... Mourinho (another Baffert) is also nominated, but may opt for Sunland Derby (3/25) instead - best spot for that one to punch his Churchill pass.dunno, Baffert running Justify and McKinzie both at S.A. Derby? yeah, McKinzie is already IN, but ownership wants to bag that pelt - gotta think one is gonna ship to Oaklawn, where he has had tremendous success ... gonna be a fun final two months with all of this
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
must have some Secretariat blood in him - the coat, the blaze, the leaning way of running all has a Big Red look to it.
so fun, so weird, seeing Mikey Smith still taking mounts. we gave him several legs up when he had his bug @ Santa Fe Downs, 35 summers ago
so fun, so weird, seeing Mikey Smith still taking mounts. we gave him several legs up when he had his bug @ Santa Fe Downs, 35 summers ago
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Scat Daddy outta Ghostzapper (Stage Magic) bottom - but i can dig the vibe you're tossing
as far as Justify needing that one score to qualify, we had a latecomer last year who did it on the trail vs. stakes winners in his only "points" race - Always Dreaming (Fla. Derby) now, i'm not sayin' ... just sayin'
btw, Mississippi is possible for the Rebel ...
i remember you mentioning this last year, guy has been
for so long now, his sustained excellence is pretty damn special.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
oy - fragile's the word. massive, beautiful, gentle, fractious beasts, in many ways more remarkable than humans, but felled so easily.
we lost two broodmares suddenly during my disastrous attempt to breed horses in NM 30 yrs ago. i thought we were so fortunate to have wild alfalfa for them to graze on in Galisteo, but these mares - one the first horse i ever claimed, barely 15 hands but brought home checks in 14 of her 17 races for me and then a granddaughter of Secretariat (Dactylographer) we'd bought in Sallisaw who bore me one giant chestnut colt who refused to turn left on a track - were poisoned by eating blister beatles which fed on the same grain. I was out of state when it happened, but the rancher - who lost 3 of his own - took me out and showed the bugs to me. No bigger than a fingernail, you or i could eat a plateful & do nothing but burp, but they're deadly to horseflesh. i was shaking my head over losing them mares maybe longer than i did when my Mary passed.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
damn, that's some heavy stuff :(
was that the impetus for you getting out the game?
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
a li'lbit. mostly though it's the geometric expansion of debt that new breeders don't get. you retire a mare to breed and, if you're "lucky" enough to have a get every year, you're paying feed & vet for four horses before the first one makes the track and barely half of them ever bring a check. that & my partner - Santa Fe's biggest coke dealer - got busted. aaaand the blister beetles.
i'm too big and started too late to be a natural on a horse, but there aint no better way to begin a day than watching a NM sunrise atop a fine animal. wanted to have a family business before i started a family & i had that showbiz dough, so i went in farther than i should. no regrets, though, not one little one.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
fwiw, a look at the experts rankings after these past few eventful few days ...
Kentucky Derby Media Poll (Week 3)
Horse (1st-place votes)
1. Bolt d'Oro (14)
2. McKinzie (9)
3. Good Magic
4. Audible
T5. Solomini (2)
T5. Justify (2)
7. Enticed
8. Promises Fulfilled
9. Catholic Boy
10. Avery Island
11. Flameaway
12. Quip
13. Bravazo
14. Instilled Regard
T15. Sporting Chance
T15. My Boy Jack
17. Mendelssohn
18. Magnum Moon
19. Strike Power
20. Free Drop Billy
Next 10 receiving votes (with points): Combatant (70), Snapper Sinclair (60), Gold Town (36), Noble Indy (27), Kanthaka (19), Vino Rosso (17), Gronkowski (14), Mourinho (10), Reride (10), Diamond King (9).
as we look at that top 20, couple names not mentioned up in this thread yet - Magnum Moon and Mendelessohn
Magnum Moon can be called "Justify-East" - not raced as a two year old, superstar trainer (Pletcher), impressive wins in both career races, latecomer to the Derby trail gettin' a ton of buzz ... he hasn't been as eye popping as the west coast phenom (who has?), but the similarities bear mention - a late foal (May 9th), so will not be a true 3 year old if he goes to Churchill, and may have been a reason they held him back as a two year old. Pletcher loves this cat, and the wait to debut him on the trail is finally over, as he will be going in this Saturday's Rebel down at Oaklawn ... heavyweight Solomini awaits, making his 2018 debut (Baffert has won a record six Rebel Stakes, all since 2010) - Sporting Chance and Combatant will also have a say, giving the Gr.II prep some nice depth. MM just drilled a bullet 5f work at Palm Meadows, so he's tuned the hell up for Saturday.
Mendelssohn top European contender, trained by the brilliant Aidan O'Brien - another late (5/19) foal, has been primarily a turf runner, most notably bagging the 2017 BC Juvey Turf - some familiar names from the Derby trail were up in that field: Flameaway/My Boy Jack/Catholic Boy/Snapper Sinclair - so he's used to the class up over here ... his only race off the green was his last time out this past weekend, snagging 20 points while taking down the 1m Patton Stakes at Dundalk (Ire.) over the synth. he will not be shipping stateside yet, as his next outing will be the UAE Derby (3/31) ... that is a 100/40/20/10 affair, so he'll have to at least show to get in the Derby field.
Kentucky Derby Media Poll (Week 3)
Horse (1st-place votes)
1. Bolt d'Oro (14)
2. McKinzie (9)
3. Good Magic
4. Audible
T5. Solomini (2)
T5. Justify (2)
7. Enticed
8. Promises Fulfilled
9. Catholic Boy
10. Avery Island
11. Flameaway
12. Quip
13. Bravazo
14. Instilled Regard
T15. Sporting Chance
T15. My Boy Jack
17. Mendelssohn
18. Magnum Moon
19. Strike Power
20. Free Drop Billy
Next 10 receiving votes (with points): Combatant (70), Snapper Sinclair (60), Gold Town (36), Noble Indy (27), Kanthaka (19), Vino Rosso (17), Gronkowski (14), Mourinho (10), Reride (10), Diamond King (9).
as we look at that top 20, couple names not mentioned up in this thread yet - Magnum Moon and Mendelessohn
Magnum Moon can be called "Justify-East" - not raced as a two year old, superstar trainer (Pletcher), impressive wins in both career races, latecomer to the Derby trail gettin' a ton of buzz ... he hasn't been as eye popping as the west coast phenom (who has?), but the similarities bear mention - a late foal (May 9th), so will not be a true 3 year old if he goes to Churchill, and may have been a reason they held him back as a two year old. Pletcher loves this cat, and the wait to debut him on the trail is finally over, as he will be going in this Saturday's Rebel down at Oaklawn ... heavyweight Solomini awaits, making his 2018 debut (Baffert has won a record six Rebel Stakes, all since 2010) - Sporting Chance and Combatant will also have a say, giving the Gr.II prep some nice depth. MM just drilled a bullet 5f work at Palm Meadows, so he's tuned the hell up for Saturday.
Mendelssohn top European contender, trained by the brilliant Aidan O'Brien - another late (5/19) foal, has been primarily a turf runner, most notably bagging the 2017 BC Juvey Turf - some familiar names from the Derby trail were up in that field: Flameaway/My Boy Jack/Catholic Boy/Snapper Sinclair - so he's used to the class up over here ... his only race off the green was his last time out this past weekend, snagging 20 points while taking down the 1m Patton Stakes at Dundalk (Ire.) over the synth. he will not be shipping stateside yet, as his next outing will be the UAE Derby (3/31) ... that is a 100/40/20/10 affair, so he'll have to at least show to get in the Derby field.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
pack a lunch (30 mins.), but some really good chatter up in here with Zipse/Shifman - talking all things relative to the state of the trail as of last night -
if ya don't wanna sit through it all in one shot, here's a chop up in order: (with starting point linked) opens with San Felipe/Bolt/McKinzie, Justify, Avery Island, TB Derby/Quip/Flameaway/Promises Fulfilled, Gotham/Enticed, Mourinho, Mendelssohn, look at the Rebel.
as far as Avery Island goes, was gonna post about that injury which has sidelined him for now ... but did not know until viewing this vid that Godolphin knew about the mishap Friday, but didn't announce 'til Monday ... ergo allowing futures wagers to go down without divulging
if ya don't wanna sit through it all in one shot, here's a chop up in order: (with starting point linked) opens with San Felipe/Bolt/McKinzie, Justify, Avery Island, TB Derby/Quip/Flameaway/Promises Fulfilled, Gotham/Enticed, Mourinho, Mendelssohn, look at the Rebel.
as far as Avery Island goes, was gonna post about that injury which has sidelined him for now ... but did not know until viewing this vid that Godolphin knew about the mishap Friday, but didn't announce 'til Monday ... ergo allowing futures wagers to go down without divulging
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