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** Road To The 2018 Triple Crown - 5/10: Justy Back On (The) Track, Ruis Will Ship Bolty/Duck The Rain ** (1 Viewer)

otb_lifer said:
i think Justy is gonna go the other way, though ... would not shock me to see him 9/5 come post time - for those who love him, 3/1 is a gift atm. 
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Really?  With this many contenders and ~20 horses catching support, you think he's going to go off that low?  I disagree wholeheartedly, but I'm a total piker in this arena compared to you, GB.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Really?  With this many contenders and ~20 horses catching support, you think he's going to go off that low?  I disagree wholeheartedly, but I'm a total piker in this arena compared to you, GB.
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well, said it wouldn't shock me, not that I totally expect to see him bet down to that range ... do i think he is the most talented three yr. old atm? yeah.  i do. 

but this race has always been more about attrition - though the favorites have been bagging Ws at a very high clip lately. 

i never ever bet a horse to "win" in the Derby, though - my strategy has been to find a key horse, and wheel - right now that's Vino. 

i can get the same parimutuel win payout for a 3/1 or 15/1 shot at some bullring like Chucktown that i will get on a 3/1 or 15/1 in the KD - too many variables in the latter for me to plunk major coin down on that.

i want the exotics come May 5th. 

 
otb_lifer said:
i think Justy is gonna go the other way, though ... would not shock me to see him 9/5 come post time - for those who love him, 3/1 is a gift atm. 
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I think you can get 5-1 or 11/2 in Europe.

 
otb_lifer said:
well, said it wouldn't shock me, not that I totally expect to see him bet down to that range ... do i think he is the most talented three yr. old atm? yeah.  i do. 

but this race has always been more about attrition - though the favorites have been bagging Ws at a very high clip lately. 

i never ever bet a horse to "win" in the Derby, though - my strategy has been to find a key horse, and wheel - right now that's Vino. 

i can get the same parimutuel win payout for a 3/1 or 15/1 shot at some bullring like Chucktown that i will get on a 3/1 or 15/1 in the KD - too many variables in the latter for me to plunk major coin down on that.

i want the exotics come May 5th. 
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He may be the most talented, I just don't remember recent vintage horses in the same vein going off that low.  I could be way off on this.  Wasn't American Pharoah something like 3-1 or 4-1 at post time?  Maybe I'm mis-remembering - a lifetime of addling one's brain can do that.

You and me both.  I'm always on exotics.  I rarely bet to win, period, but especially in the Derby.  Also riding Vino with you - that horse, Audible and Mendelssohn have been the three I've liked throughout the prep season although the latter is based on the strength of one run.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
He may be the most talented, I just don't remember recent vintage horses in the same vein going off that low.  I could be way off on this.  Wasn't American Pharoah something like 3-1 or 4-1 at post time?  Maybe I'm mis-remembering - a lifetime of addling one's brain can do that.

You and me both.  I'm always on exotics.  I rarely bet to win, period, but especially in the Derby.  Also riding Vino with you - that horse, Audible and Mendelssohn have been the three I've liked throughout the prep season although the latter is based on the strength of one run.
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believe Big Brown went off 9/5 - with a much more suspect field/crop than this, no question ... APh and CC were both 5/2, iirc 

as i posted right after S.A. Derby, that's the one (Big Brown) Justy most reminds me of - and BB might've gone off at 4/5 had it not been for the #20 post. 

just think the betting is gonna shift heavy to the hyped one from Cali - gut hunch that he gets slammed a ton more than we are anticipating. 

and Vino may wind up losing a ton of value in exotics, if folks are paying attention out there ...

 
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Evilgrin 72 said:
I assume it has less to do with field size and more to do with conditioning/learning to race.  I'm not nearly well-schooled enough to say anything for sure, but I'm just looking at the numbers.  The sample size is large enough that it can't be ignored, IMO.  Of course, one could say the same about horses shipping from UAE to race and I've followed that trend and tossed the foreign invaders every year, even when they draw decent support at the windows and that's worked fabulously for me.  However, I may have to buck the trend this year.  Mendelssohn's run was Secretariat-like.
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I haven't watched one DP race this year and have really lost the lust for horse racing in general as I just can't seem to get it right over the last few years.  But I just watched that UAE Derby and my god.....Mendelssohn is special.  Ryan Moore was holding the horse back hard early on and then when set free, the horse just blistered the field.  I've always tossed UAE runners too, but we might have a really special one this year.  

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
He may be the most talented, I just don't remember recent vintage horses in the same vein going off that low.  I could be way off on this.  Wasn't American Pharoah something like 3-1 or 4-1 at post time?  Maybe I'm mis-remembering - a lifetime of addling one's brain can do that.
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There was a 20-yr period where the favorite didn't win the Derby and that eventually created 5/1-or-better favorites toward the end of that run. This decade has been a lot more fave-friendly, though, and with Justify's Big Red appearance and the public's mania to find the next Superhorse, i could see sub-2/1 favoritism coming down on him

 
wikkidpissah said:
There was a 20-yr period where the favorite didn't win the Derby and that eventually created 5/1-or-better favorites toward the end of that run. This decade has been a lot more fave-friendly, though, and with Justify's Big Red appearance and the public's mania to find the next Superhorse, i could see sub-2/1 favoritism coming down on him
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I'll be fading him for sure at that price.  If he beats me, he beats me.

 
General Malaise said:
I haven't watched one DP race this year and have really lost the lust for horse racing in general as I just can't seem to get it right over the last few years.  But I just watched that UAE Derby and my god.....Mendelssohn is special.  Ryan Moore was holding the horse back hard early on and then when set free, the horse just blistered the field.  I've always tossed UAE runners too, but we might have a really special one this year.  
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thinking back to that Saturday morning was like  :excited:

i called it a "spectacle", and it certainly is the most eye-popping jaunt we've seen this season - it was Big Red-esque in it's massive overmatching of the field left in his wake. 

but, a few records fell at Meydan that day - was a juiced track bias, and that helped further punctuate how much the best he was.  

it's difficult to watch that majestic win and then attempt to punch holes in it - and i'm definitely not here to call him a mirage, but the extenuating circumstances do bear heeding - his connections are as solid as this game knows, and he has shipped here before and won (BC Juvey Turf) amidst some KD trail timber - so i fully expect him to be cranked for Churchill - but this is a whole new level of ballgame for all of them, but for him even more so (first time in with this kinda class, only second ever race started on dirt) - the most perplexing cat in the gig for me - would expect a 6/1 opening line from Battaglia, and you just know a ton of Euro coin is gonna come in on this one. 

 
Arkansas Derby - go HERE - find Magnum Moon, and click "Ultimate PPs"

Solomini is working respectably, not really a "morning" colt -  MM going even better.  5 & 6 hole, respectively.

and howzabout Machismo?  layoff??!? we don't need no stinkin' LAYOFF !  wheels right back after last week's Blue Grass - made an early bid, no dice, put the cue in the rack ... and here he is - that's some OG horseplay right there  :thumbup:  

HRN Preview of Arky

HRN Lexington Look

Latest Vegas Odds  -  Vino Rosso, hi 

 
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otb_lifer said:
Arkansas Derby - go HERE - find Magnum Moon, and click "Ultimate PPs"

Solomini is working respectably, not really a "morning" colt -  MM going even better.  5 & 6 hole, respectively.

and howzabout Machismo?  layoff??!? we don't need no stinkin' LAYOFF !  wheels right back after last week's Blue Grass - made an early bid, no dice, put the cue in the rack ... and here he is - that's some OG horseplay right there  :thumbup:  

Latest Vegas Odds  -  Vino Rosso, hi 
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Oh man, gimme 16-1 all day long. 

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Oh man, gimme 16-1 all day long. 
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Audible at 8/1 screams value, as well. 

the thing w/Vino is he might not get that pace collapse needed to win - don't think Baffert/Pletcher/O'Brien are worried about Promises Fulfilled/Quip stealing this one, so those heavier favorites can lay off the cheaper front-unning speed. 

Audible has that push button move, Justy is a beast, and Mendy may wind up being best of all, who knows?

we do know the three big guns have the speed and chops to take this down ... only question is, can they get the distance?  we know Vino can - but that pace needs to be hot for a mile to get him up - could happen.  

 
otb_lifer said:
Audible at 8/1 screams value, as well. 

the thing w/Vino is he might not get that pace collapse needed to win - don't think Baffert/Pletcher/O'Brien are worried about Promises Fulfilled/Quip stealing this one, so those heavier favorites can lay off the cheaper front-unning speed. 

Audible has that push button move, Justy is a beast, and Mendy may wind up being best of all, who knows?

we do know the three big guns have the speed and chops to take this down ... only question is, can they get the distance?  we know Vino can - but that pace needs to be hot for a mile to get him up - could happen.  
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Totally agree.  I'm going to be playing a tri box with Vino, Mendelssohn, and Audible.  If the odds stay anything like they are now, that should be a really nice payout, even if Vino is third-best.  I'll spread around for sure, but that's going to be my first bet.

 
I am trying to get some money on Justify at 5-1 or better in the UK.  If anyone wants to participate, PM me.  Understand that the bet will be denominated in pounds and you will have exposure to pounds (good or bad) until it's cashed and converted.

 
chet said:
I am trying to get some money on Justify at 5-1 or better in the UK.  If anyone wants to participate, PM me.  Understand that the bet will be denominated in pounds and you will have exposure to pounds (good or bad) until it's cashed and converted.
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is there a particular book you're sourcing here? if so, plz to share these U.K. odds ...

if Justy is 5/1 then i wanna see how they shook out Vino/Audible/Mendy

 
a look at the current Points scenario ... My Boy Jack/Combatant/Dream Baby Dream all have very legit shots of making Churchill with good showings tomorrow ... sucks that Firenze Fire will probably be nudged out, because he is one of the easiest tosses from tix this year - though the latter two listed above seem just as tossable - let's see how they shake

 
I need to look harder at Noble Indy.  1st instinct is to fade, a la Audible, but I haven't really dug in on that horse like I have some of the others.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
I need to look harder at Noble Indy.  1st instinct is to fade, a la Audible, but I haven't really dug in on that horse like I have some of the others.
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if i'm putting anyone on my tix from the Louisiana Derby it's gonna be Lone Sailor - yeah, Noble held him off with a great deep dig, but he (Noble) will be swarmed over once the big guns get chuggin' in Churchill - cant see him hanging for anything better than mid pack finish - whereas Lone Sailor intrigues me as one who could mop up late if we get a meltdown ... cant see any path for Noble up in here ...

 
chet said:
Why are you fading Audible?
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No idea how he'll handle a field of 20.  No horse unraced as a 2 year old has ever won.  If OTB is right, he'll go off at 2/1 or shorter, meaning exotics will likely be lean if he's in the mix.  He looks the part, and if he's the next Big Brown, or American Pharoah even, #### me. But there are a few other horses I like at least as much (Vino, Mendelssohn, Audible) that are likely to be 6-1, 7-1, 8-1, maybe even 12 or 15-1 (Vino) at post time that are going to pay a lot more if they win.  I'll sprinkle Justify in some of my bets to cover against another big run from him, but most of my capital will be allocated elsewhere.

 
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Evilgrin 72 said:
No idea how he'll handle a field of 20.  No horse unraced as a 2 year old has ever won.  If OTB is right, he'll go off at 2/1 or shorter, meaning exotics will likely be lean if he's in the mix.  He looks the part, and if he's the next Big Brown, or American Pharoah even, #### me. But there are a few other horses I like at least as much (Vino, Mendelssohn, Audible) that are likely to be 6-1, 7-1, 8-1, maybe even 12 or 15-1 (Vino) at post time that are going to pay a lot more if they win.  I'll sprinkle Audible in some of my bets to cover against another big run from him, but most of my capital will be allocated elsewhere.
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I think you're confusing Justify with Audible.

Audible raced twice as a 2yo.

Justify didn't race as a 2yo.

 
chet said:
Okay--that makes more sense. 

I am betting Justify to win at 5-1 and 11/2 in England.  Not crazy about him at 2-1 or 9/5.
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5-1 or 11-2, I'd be a LOT more apt to mix him into the exacta/trifecta bets.  At 9/5, not so much.  Right now, he's a college player that put up 24 and 13 in his freshman year and then declared for the draft.  We don't know for sure yet what he'll do in the NBA, but I wouldn't bet him for MVP as a rookie at such short prices.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
5-1 or 11-2, I'd be a LOT more apt to mix him into the exacta/trifecta bets.  At 9/5, not so much.  Right now, he's a college player that put up 24 and 13 in his freshman year and then declared for the draft.  We don't know for sure yet what he'll do in the NBA, but I wouldn't bet him for MVP as a rookie at such short prices.
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on a smallish (3-5 horse) ticket, sure - can see tossing him for value against sake. 

but my big trifecta bet (1 key horse, with 9 others) has to include him - hopefully some bombs come in with my key - but i also dont wanna light $432 on fire by leaving this cat off. 

leaning to the big 5 with 5 closers, atm  :popcorn:  might key Audible if he continues to get laid off - but really leaning to Vino - which would give me the flexibility to use another presser type, seeing as how i have VR in w/the closers. 

 
General Malaise said:
Is Vino the class of the closers in this one?  I'm just now starting to do my homework.  
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most definitely - followed by My Boy Jack, Free Drop Billy, Lone Sailor, Hofburg

watch the TB Derby replay, though - sows Vino flattening on a soft pace - as opposed to the Wood, where he got the suicidal numbers from Old Time Revival. 

 
otb_lifer said:
on a smallish (3-5 horse) ticket, sure - can see tossing him for value against sake. 

but my big trifecta bet (1 key horse, with 9 others) has to include him - hopefully some bombs come in with my key - but i also dont wanna light $432 on fire by leaving this cat off. 

leaning to the big 5 with 5 closers, atm  :popcorn:  might key Audible if he continues to get laid off - but really leaning to Vino - which would give me the flexibility to use another presser type, seeing as how i have VR in w/the closers. 
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Yeah, I usually don't spread that wide, I've been burned hard doing that in the past, but you absolutely have to if you're doing a 9 horse key wheel. I tend to cast a narrower net, it's paid off for me in the past with less downside risk.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Yeah, I usually don't spread that wide, I've been burned hard doing that in the past, but you absolutely have to if you're doing a 9 horse key wheel. I tend to cast a narrower net, it's paid off for me in the past with less downside risk.
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it's my centerpiece bet, ever since the Steppenwolfer key of  '06 - that $432 spread bought back 11k & change. 

will make other more economical stabs, as well - also a super key (7 horse), which most definitely will be headed by VR. 

think the tosses this year are gonna be a bit easier than years past - the gap between the wheat and chaff is pretty significant - horses like Gronk/Promises Fulfilled/Enticed/Noble Indy/Firenze Fire/Quip have virtually no shot hanging around for a piece - Runaway Ghost, if forwardly placed, has no biz in the payout picture, either. 

big prob is gonna be tossing one of the Good Magic/Solomini/Bolty/MM tier - pending tomorrow's outcome, of course. 

wanna keep the closers in, but one's gotta go outta that lot, as well. and, gotdamnit, i ain't quittin' Flamey?- even though he'll most likely be on the early pace.

very intriguing possibilities here - gonna be a hell of a three week 'cap. 

 
otb_lifer said:
it's my centerpiece bet, ever since the Steppenwolfer key of  '06 - that $432 spread bought back 11k & change. 

will make other more economical stabs, as well - also a super key (7 horse), which most definitely will be headed by VR. 

think the tosses this year are gonna be a bit easier than years past - the gap between the wheat and chaff is pretty significant - horses like Gronk/Promises Fulfilled/Enticed/Noble Indy/Firenze Fire/Quip have virtually no shot hanging around for a piece - Runaway Ghost, if forwardly placed, has no biz in the payout picture, either. 

big prob is gonna be tossing one of the Good Magic/Solomini/Bolty/MM tier - pending tomorrow's outcome, of course. 

wanna keep the closers in, but one's gotta go outta that lot, as well. and, gotdamnit, i ain't quittin' Flamey?- even though he'll most likely be on the early pace.

very intriguing possibilities here - gonna be a hell of a three week 'cap. 
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I feel the same way, and it makes me feel more confident that you agree.  :lol:

 
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