Rodgers TD Pass Total (1 Viewer)

[The Goose is Loose]

I thought Dave Larkin brought up a good point on Aaron Rodgers claiming that his 45 TD's are not sustainable from one year to the next.

Looking at his numbers, I kind of agree. His pass attempts have hovered around 500 per year yet his TD passes jumped last year from 28 to 45. What's the reason for this? Lack of a ground game? Will Benson start getting some goal line carries that would have usually been Rodgers pass attempts?

Season Comp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Fum Lost

2011 342 501 4637 45 6 60 257 3

2010 312 475 3922 28 11 64 356 4 1

2009 350 541 4434 30 7 59 304 5 4

2008 341 536 4038 28 13 56 207 4

I'm under the impression that his passing TD total will fall somewhere into the mid/high 30's in which case, I don't know if he's really a mid-first round pick. Any thoughts out there?

 

[butcher boy]

45 may be unsustainable, but 40 is.

I dont expect him to regress back to 30. Not much has changed in terms of his situation, and he's entering his prime. A very valid reason for his increase last year could be that he simply got better.

 

[smackdaddies]

TD total will increase

Why? Well since you ask....

Packer starting receivers are only getting better - outside of Driver, all of the receivers are moving into their prime - Jennings/Nelson/Jones/JFin.

Even if older, all reports indicate Driver still rocks

Packers offense is moving to even more pass friendly system - more shotgun, more play calling at the line of scrimmage, more pressure on defenses. Think K-Gun.

Packers run game is switching to a one back scheme, run from the shotgun - which will open up the run game, putting pressure on teams that have gone to playing cover two full time against the pack - the better benson and green run, the more opportunities for Rodgers

Randall Cobb, still their WR4, is allowing them to be even more creative. He will not be on the field as much as the others (because he is the primary punt and kick returner) but when he is, the Pack are doing some crazy things with him

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

No QB in NFL history has thrown for back to back 40 TD seasons. Only 1 QB has thrown for over 40 TD's twice in his career, Dan Marino 83/85.

 

[Modog814]

Yes, I think he'll regress. It's not a knock on Rodgers or his ability, it's just that I don't think he couldn't have played any better last year. It was about as perfect as anyone could play the QB position. Sadly (and I'll be the first to admit that I'm not a huge Rodgers fan) it's a season that will probably get overlooked with what Brees, Brady and Stafford did.

That said, I think anyone that projects more than 40 TD's for any QB is setting themselves up for disappointment. That's not to say that no QB will break the 40 TD mark, it's just that I don't think it's what should be expected.

 

[BobbyLayne]

No QB in NFL history has thrown for back to back 40 TD seasons. Only 1 QB has thrown for over 40 TD's twice in his career, Dan Marino 83/85.

Favre had B2B years of 39 & 38In fact he had a 5-year run in which averaged over 4K with over 35 TDs per seasonRodgers should be above those for sure

 

[sho nuff]

No QB in NFL history has thrown for back to back 40 TD seasons. Only 1 QB has thrown for over 40 TD's twice in his career, Dan Marino 83/85.

While true...the league has also moved to far more passing lately and many players have been close.I think 40 is attainable but obviously not guaranteed.35-40 is about a perfect projection for Rodgers passing TDs.

 

[Ilov80s]

You can make this same argument about most top 5 picks since they are all mostly coming off career years. The fact is that no QB is a safer bet to be a top 2 QB than Rodgers considering as long as he has been a starter, he has always finished in the top 2. Even last year when he only played in 15 games, he scored more than Cam, Brady, and Stafford (who all had unreal years).

If Rodgers had played Week 16, he would have likely matched Flynn which would have made his final stat line: Passing: 5,100 yards and 51 TDs Rushing: 250 rushing and 3 rushing TDs.

 

[BobbyLayne]

You can make this same argument about most top 5 picks since they are all mostly coming off career years. The fact is that no QB is a safer bet to be a top 2 QB than Rodgers considering as long as he has been a starter, he has always finished in the top 2. Even last year when he only played in 15 games, he scored more than Cam, Brady, and Stafford (who all had unreal years).

If Rodgers had played Week 16, he would have likely matched Flynn which would have made his final stat line: Passing: 5,100 yards and 51 TDs Rushing: 250 rushing and 3 rushing TDs.

Actually he's bee 3-1-2-1 his first four years as a starter, but great point regardless. Favre 1994-98 and Peyton 2003-07 were both top 3 five straight seasons.

 

[Ilov80s]

You can make this same argument about most top 5 picks since they are all mostly coming off career years. The fact is that no QB is a safer bet to be a top 2 QB than Rodgers considering as long as he has been a starter, he has always finished in the top 2. Even last year when he only played in 15 games, he scored more than Cam, Brady, and Stafford (who all had unreal years).

If Rodgers had played Week 16, he would have likely matched Flynn which would have made his final stat line: Passing: 5,100 yards and 51 TDs Rushing: 250 rushing and 3 rushing TDs.

Actually he's bee 3-1-2-1 his first four years as a starter, but great point regardless. Favre 1994-98 and Peyton 2003-07 were both top 3 five straight seasons.

It is cutting hairs as to how your league scores QBs. He was 2-1-2-1- in my league...but yeah splitting hairs there. Barring injury, Rodgers has both the lowest floor and highest ceiling any player in the league. IMO, he should be the #1 pick in a non-ppr league.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Yes, his TDs will fall of a bit (38-42 sounds about right), but he will still be beastly.