Roe v. Wade Overturned (4 Viewers)

[timschochet]

lol the movie was better

Well now we get the real life version. 

 

[quick-hands]

They’re already passing laws criminalizing going to another state to get an abortion. Literally holding women prisoners. 

Women?   What about men.

 

[Sand]

They’re already passing laws criminalizing going to another state to get an abortion. Literally holding women prisoners. 

Ah, the nebulous they makes an appearance.  If you're gonna make an accusation be specific.

 

[Teumessian Fox]

Well now we get the real life version. 

As long as we get Robert Duvall in that version

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Although I'm a person who is physically capable of getting pregnant and therefore has more "skin in the game," it would seem, I actually find myself nodding in agreement with your second paragraph as well.  There's something to be said for just getting to the heart of the matter and seeing where we stand on this as a country (or as a collection of states), instead of expanding or chipping away around the edges while most people couldn't give a damn.

Thanks. I'll be honest, this is one of those opinions I hold that I feel like I can only express pseudonymously on a message board. I'd be afraid that if I posted it on Facebook, half of my female friends would never speak to me again.

 

[Kal El]

No criminal statue was breached. This was a legal crime. Women are going to die. Again that’s not hyperbole. 

In fairness, unborn children are dying at a distressing rate, and many people believe they should at least have a chance to live. I don’t have time to go through the debate over abortion here(I believe that because the baby has a different genetic sequence than the mother despite sharing half of said genetics, that should come into play, and the fact that a baby requires a place for gestation is also a factor. Frankly we just need actual reproductive health education that also offers counseling to women who are having trouble with their situation, and they don’t deserve condemnation if they chose to have one). I’m not sure about this draft or what it entails, but I’ll say again that I would much rather have the law made unnecessary rather than just overturning it.

 

[Sand]

Well now we get the real life version. 

Let me know when I can head to the local university to pick mine out.

(I kid, I kid).

 

[shader]

They’re already passing laws criminalizing going to another state to get an abortion. Literally holding women prisoners. 

99% of these women had consensual sex.  These women did it to themselves.  

 

[timschochet]

Are you saying men can't die from having an abortion?

Find somebody else to troll. 

 

[ekbeats]

They’re already passing laws criminalizing going to another state to get an abortion. Literally holding women prisoners. 

Link?  The only thing I'm aware of was a proposal of such a measure in Missouri that didn't have much support.

 

[Jackstraw]

99% of these women had consensual sex.  These women did it to themselves.  

You’re all heart bub. 

 

[Shula-holic]

I'm wondering how many profanities were uttered by Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy tonight.  Just when November looked like a walk, that device from the ACME Company blew up on them.

 

[timschochet]

99% of these women had consensual sex.  

I’m very curious how you came up with this percentage (not that it matters.) 

 

[shader]

Your all heart bub. 

Thanks I agree.  I support the helpless over the heartless killers.  HTH

 

[timschochet]

I'm wondering how many profanities were uttered by Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy tonight.  Just when November looked like a walk, that device from the ACME Company blew up on them.

Maybe. Hopefully. We’ll see. 

 

[bagger]

Yes Hillary screwed up. Ginsburg screwed up. The Democrats in the Senate, changing the rules screwed up. They all blew it. 
But the difference is none of them wanted this to happen. That’s on Republicans. They can take ownership of this crime. 

If you’re going to blame anyone it is Hillary’s fault for not being able to beat a troll who was running for president to make money and much to his surprise he won.

elections have consequences as do what the states do now.  Many businesses may very well relocate out of states with outlawed abortion and if these states want a low business economy let them.  States that are more even handed will benefit.

 

[timschochet]

When I get over my initial bitterness and rage, I will likely take a more relaxed view of things. Like Dred Scott, this horrible decision will somehow be defeated. I don’t know how. But it will. America has a long history of moving forward. Our backwards moves are always temporary. I need to remember that tonight. 
 

And who knows? Maybe it will cause such a backlash that the red wave everybody is expecting in November won’t happen. Here’s hoping. 

 

[shader]

I’m very curious how you came up with this percentage (not that it matters.) 

Could be inaccurate, but from what I've read, only 1% of abortions are due to rape and incest.  If the actual percentage is slightly different, adjust my statement accordingly. I recognize that situation is different.

I don't have an ounce of compassion for a human that willingly has sex, gets pregnant, and has an abortion.  

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I'm wondering how many profanities were uttered by Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy tonight.  Just when November looked like a walk, that device from the ACME Company blew up on them.

Possibly, but I think all this "Cui bono?" speculation about the leak could go in a million different directions. Maybe it was a liberal trying to sound the alarm. Maybe it was a conservative trying to soften the blow. Ultimately, I think the final decision will be far more important than anything that got leaked tonight.

 

[Sand]

I'm wondering how many profanities were uttered by Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy tonight.  Just when November looked like a walk, that device from the ACME Company blew up on them.

As Tim will attest, this is the one item that I noted could really sway the election.  The counterpoint is that the 46% of women who are pro choice were likely going to vote D and the 46% who were pro life were going to vote R anyway.

This issue is right down the middle, so it's an interesting assertion that this will really move a whole lot.  I'm split as to whether this will be real or not.

 

[Sand]

Like Dred Scott, this horrible decision will somehow be defeated.

Tim, that's honestly the most repugnant thing you've said in this forum.

 

[Shula-holic]

Possibly, but I think all this "Cui bono?" speculation about the leak could go in a million different directions. Maybe it was a liberal trying to sound the alarm. Maybe it was a conservative trying to soften the blow. Ultimately, I think the final decision will be far more important than anything that got leaked tonight.

Could be.  It's all speculation and we don't know who or why right now other than likely for some political agenda.

 

[timschochet]

If you’re going to blame anyone it is Hillary’s fault for not being able to beat a troll who was running for president to make money and much to his surprise he won.

elections have consequences as do what the states do now.  Many businesses may very well relocate out of states with outlawed abortion and if these states want a low business economy let them.  States that are more even handed will benefit.

You’re right about Hillary. 
 

But the biggest folks to blame are always the ones who actually commit the bad act: in this case, the  Supreme Court Justices, the Presidents who appointed them, the Senators who voted for them, and that portion of the public who chose those politicians with this exact result in mind. 

 

[Shula-holic]

As Tim will attest, this is the one item that I noted could really sway the election.  The counterpoint is that the 46% of women who are pro choice were likely going to vote D and the 46% who were pro life were going to vote R anyway.

This issue is right down the middle, so it's an interesting assertion that this will really move a whole lot.  I'm split as to whether this will be real or not.

Intensity is the thing, it may not change all that many votes but intensity for November was one sided.  If this turns out to be true, and that is a big if, that intensity gap will be at best significantly reduced.  Those districts that R's had their sights on like Spanberger in VA likely will evaporate like a fart in the wind.

 

[timschochet]

Tim, that's honestly the most repugnant thing you've said in this forum.

Sorry but it’s exactly how I feel right now. I know you disagree and I respect that, and respect you. But it’s still how I feel. 

 

[jm192]

Fetuses aren’t people. 

You can detect a heart beat around 5-7 weeks.  In medicine, we use the absence of heart beat to determine death.  How can the presence of one not indicate life?

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Could be.  It's all speculation and we don't know who or why right now other than likely for some political agenda.

Exactly. I generally make it my policy to not waste a lot of time speculating on things where I have very little information, and I'm going to stick to that here. The fact of the leak has some level of importance, but the motivation of the leaker is ultimately irrelevant, as is the draft opinion if it's not an accurate reflection of what the final opinion will be

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The leak sucks, really, no matter who did it.

Lawyerguys, who else might have access besides a clerk?

I don't know. When I'm done reading the draft memo, I look forward to reading Twitter to see some informed speculation about that.

By the way, the draft memo reads a lot better than the excerpts from Politico, IMO. For the most part, the arguments in context aren't as gratuitous or legally irrelevant as they seem in just the excerpts.

 

[timschochet]

I don't have an ounce of compassion for a human that willingly has sex, gets pregnant, and has an abortion.  

You seem like a good guy, shader. I’ve enjoyed my conversations with you over the years. I hope you come to widen your horizons. 

 

[Sand]

I don't know. When I'm done reading the draft memo, I look forward to reading Twitter to see some informed speculation about that.

By the way, the draft memo reads a lot better than the excerpts from Politico, IMO. For the most part, the arguments in context aren't as gratuitous or legally irrelevant as they seem in just the excerpts.

The Volokh Conspiracy already has something up.  IMO as a non-lawyer I've always found very clear thinking there.

 

[timschochet]

You can detect a heart beat around 5-7 weeks.  In medicine, we use the absence of heart beat to determine death.  How can the presence of one not indicate life?

I didn’t say it wasn’t life. I said it wasn’t a person. That’s very different. 
 

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Intensity is the thing, it may not change all that many votes but intensity for November was one sided.  If this turns out to be true, and that is a big if, that intensity gap will be at best significantly reduced.  Those districts that R's had their sights on like Spanberger in VA likely will evaporate like a fart in the wind.

Man, we're on the same wavelength tonight. I was about to post the exact same thing. I don't think it's as simple as 46% on each side believe what they believe, and the rest waver back and forth. I think that, when pressed, more Americans support abortion rights, but that historically, pro-lifers have had more intensity and have been more likely to vote on that issue. If Roe is ultimately overturned, will it change that equation? Will pro-choicers become more motivated? Will pro-lifers become more complacent? Will state legislative races that were previously ignored take on far more significance as the abortion battles shift there? None of us have any idea how this shakes out.

 

[quick-hands]

You’re all heart bub. 

Aren't you the personal responsibility  guy?

 

[quick-hands]

I didn’t say it wasn’t life. I said it wasn’t a person. That’s very different. 
 

That's ridiculous,  of course it's a person.

 

[timschochet]

Let’s remember that 69% of Americans oppose overturning Roe. Only 30% are in favor: 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/01/21/politics/cnn-poll-abortion-roe-v-wade/index.html

 

[shader]

You seem like a good guy, shader. I’ve enjoyed my conversations with you over the years. I hope you come to widen your horizons. 

I've enjoyed them as well.  Abortion angers me to an extreme degree.  I have no filter on this subject.  I'll back out because I recognize my opinions won't lead to reasonable discussion, which is what makes this a great forum. 

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Pro-life versus pro-choice arguments seem really boring in this thread. Let's try to keep this focused on the Supreme Court, the leak, the legal reasoning in Roe (and in Dobbs), the political implications of reversing Roe, etc. -- not on whether abortion is moral or immoral. (The moral argument is entirely separate from the legal argument.)

 

[ekbeats]

Democrats blew it by not relenting on late term abortions.  That's when they lost me.  Babies have survived being born at 21 weeks.  In 2018 the CDC reported there were roughly 6,200 abortions at 21 weeks or later.  

 

[bagger]

You’re right about Hillary. 
 

But the biggest folks to blame are always the ones who actually commit the bad act: in this case, the  Supreme Court Justices, the Presidents who appointed them, the Senators who voted for them, and that portion of the public who chose those politicians with this exact result in mind. 

Well yes.

 

[dkp993]

I won’t lie. When I saw the headline for this my first thought was…. Is this the day the PSF gets shut down. 

 

[Dr_Zaius]

The Volokh Conspiracy already has something up.  IMO as a non-lawyer I've always found very clear thinking there.

I agree with them here:

...the Court should issue the Dobbs opinion as soon as possible. Do it tomorrow. Don't wait till Thursday, or next Monday, or the end of June. The longer this process drags on, the worse the Court will be.

Of course, if the final opinion is not actually done yet, that's a bit of a problem.

When I first heard of the leak I went to scotusblog, as they usually do a pretty good job of neutrally reporting on the court.  From their twitter on the leak:

It’s impossible to overstate the earthquake this will cause inside the Court, in terms of the destruction of trust among the Justices and staff. This leak is the gravest, most unforgivable sin.

 

[timschochet]

Pro-life versus pro-choice arguments seem really boring in this thread. Let's try to keep this focused on the Supreme Court, the leak, the legal reasoning in Roe (and in Dobbs), the political implications of reversing Roe, etc. -- not on whether abortion is moral or immoral. (The moral argument is entirely separate from the legal argument.)

It will be very difficult to separate out the legal from the moral in this case, but I will try. 

 

[timschochet]

I agree with them here:

Of course, if the final opinion is not actually done yet, that's a bit of a problem.

When I first heard of the leak I went to scotusblog, as they usually do a pretty good job of neutrally reporting on the court.  From their twitter on the leak:

I don’t think the vast majority of the public will care at all about the leak. In the scope of things (overturning a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion) it’s almost a non- issue. 

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Some credit for this has to go to President Trump no?

 

[timschochet]

Biden isn’t waiting until the actual decision is released. He’s speaking about this tomorrow. 

 

[timschochet]

Some credit for this has to go to President Trump no?

Credit is not the word I would use but yes. Most of it. 
And some to McConnell for (a) rejecting Garland and (b) slamming home the last pick at the last possible second. That allowed Trump to appoint 3 justices in only 4 years. I can’t think of another President who has done this. 

 

[Dr_Zaius]

I don’t think the vast majority of the public will care at all about the leak. In the scope of things (overturning a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion) it’s almost a non- issue. 

Oh, I agree if you ask the average Joe they don't care.  But, the people who spend their time following the Supreme Court say to the court itself, it is a very big deal, and I'm inclined to believe them.  Ginsburg and Scalia were famously close friends - you don't get that sort of collegiality if you start wondering if the other side is secretly trying to knife you in the back.

 

[sho nuff]

Some credit for this has to go to President Trump no?

For what?  Doing what any conservative in office would have done by appointing conservative judges?

McConnel definitely for gaining the one seat rather than giving Garland a confirmation hearing and a vote. 

 

[timschochet]

Oh, I agree if you ask the average Joe they don't care.  But, the people who spend their time following the Supreme Court say to the court itself, it is a very big deal, and I'm inclined to believe them.  Ginsburg and Scalia were famously close friends - you don't get that sort of collegiality if you start wondering if the other side is secretly trying to knife you in the back.

Unfortunately they’re both dead, and their collegiality is dead with them. 

 

[timschochet]

For what?  Doing what any conservative in office would have done by appointing conservative judges?

McConnel definitely for gaining the one seat rather than giving Garland a confirmation hearing and a vote. 

Other Republican Presidents wouldn’t have made such hardline appointments. At least they haven’t. 
Trump said he would and he did. You’ve got to give him that.