Romo overhyped based on half a season (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

Well, FBG stats only deduct 1 for an int. In a -2 league a negative TD/INT ratio hurts alot more. Plus, not too many QBs have a long enough leash to throw that many interceptions without seeing the bench at some point. I say he's a spot starter, because I don't project him as a must start. The stats he posted at the end of last year project to about QB 8, but QB 8 was closer to QB19 than QB6. He's a good candidate for QBBC, but I wouldn't want to have to rely on him week in and week out.

So you think he will play like he ended last season, with no improvement in either the passing or running games?

I think he's closer to the last 6 games than he is the all pro level he displayed the first 6. I'd anticipate him cutting down on the ints somewhat, but also I expect erractic play as he goes through growing pains. To me, he still needs to show something before I'd be comfortable penciling him in as an every week starter.

And erratic play means play like his last 6 games last year, or worse than that? Sorry I'm being persistent, but if we take his last 6 games, which were significantly worse than his first 6, and cut down on his interceptions (your suggestion) he is still at top 8 QB level with no improvement in passing or running. Meanwhile, we have seen him perform much better, just last season (in the first 6 games). And the point of taking his last 6 games is perhaps to say he won't be better than that passing, but what about running? He seems to be a very capable runner who didn't happen to put up running numbers... that could change.In order to project him out of the top 8, you have to be projecting no running improvement combined with worse passing than his final 6 games last season, unless you are projecting injury. Right?

Sorry, but top 8 last year isnt impressive. Take a look at the breakdown of all the QBs. There's a big gap between 6 and 7 and another big gap down to 8. Once you get to 8 you can basically lump in a whole host of other players. One big game here or there or a couple of especially bad games and you drop out of the top 10. There just isnt that much differentiation at that level. He's got good skill position players around him and he's got a chance to post good numbers. He's got a good opportunity with no real competition, but he's still highly untested. And while he's shown signs of being very good, it could have just taken some time for defenses to adjust. Don't forget, that his ypa is very high - Peyton high, and may not be sustainable. Given all the players at the QB position I can see him being drafted anywhere from QB8 - QB18. He's got more upside than many of the others in his bunching, but he's also got considerable bust potential. If Im picking up Romo, Im also making sure that Im pickng up a more settled starter soon thereafter.

If you add 200/2 rushing to his last 6 games passing (projected to 16 games), he was within 10 points of QB3 last season. And that is at 7.7 ypa, which is good but not Peyton like. When you accept top 8 and say that isn't impressive, that is his *downside* from last season. That is, that ignores his first 6 games.To put it another way, from weeks 7 to 12 last season, Romo was QB5 (FBG scoring). From weeks 13 to 17 (Data Dominator doesn't include postseason week 18), he was QB7.Please explain again the downside here...?

 

[culdeus]

He's a reasonable guy to project in the back part of the top ten with top 5 upside. The improvements that he'll have will be a coaching staff that will get TO over the middle more and spread the field to get the TE more involved and probably scrap that 2TE thing that held his stats back because of horrible OL play. Say what you want about whether Davis is overpaid he's at least an upgrade. The rookie linemen are impressing and if lucky perhaps one will be starter ready by November perhaps.

The true reason for his dropoff was the lack of quality OL play limiting the playcalling options of Tuna. Bottom line his OL situation and coaching situation are both improved.

 

[dparker713]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

Well, FBG stats only deduct 1 for an int. In a -2 league a negative TD/INT ratio hurts alot more. Plus, not too many QBs have a long enough leash to throw that many interceptions without seeing the bench at some point. I say he's a spot starter, because I don't project him as a must start. The stats he posted at the end of last year project to about QB 8, but QB 8 was closer to QB19 than QB6. He's a good candidate for QBBC, but I wouldn't want to have to rely on him week in and week out.

So you think he will play like he ended last season, with no improvement in either the passing or running games?

I think he's closer to the last 6 games than he is the all pro level he displayed the first 6. I'd anticipate him cutting down on the ints somewhat, but also I expect erractic play as he goes through growing pains. To me, he still needs to show something before I'd be comfortable penciling him in as an every week starter.

And erratic play means play like his last 6 games last year, or worse than that? Sorry I'm being persistent, but if we take his last 6 games, which were significantly worse than his first 6, and cut down on his interceptions (your suggestion) he is still at top 8 QB level with no improvement in passing or running. Meanwhile, we have seen him perform much better, just last season (in the first 6 games). And the point of taking his last 6 games is perhaps to say he won't be better than that passing, but what about running? He seems to be a very capable runner who didn't happen to put up running numbers... that could change.In order to project him out of the top 8, you have to be projecting no running improvement combined with worse passing than his final 6 games last season, unless you are projecting injury. Right?

Sorry, but top 8 last year isnt impressive. Take a look at the breakdown of all the QBs. There's a big gap between 6 and 7 and another big gap down to 8. Once you get to 8 you can basically lump in a whole host of other players. One big game here or there or a couple of especially bad games and you drop out of the top 10. There just isnt that much differentiation at that level. He's got good skill position players around him and he's got a chance to post good numbers. He's got a good opportunity with no real competition, but he's still highly untested. And while he's shown signs of being very good, it could have just taken some time for defenses to adjust. Don't forget, that his ypa is very high - Peyton high, and may not be sustainable. Given all the players at the QB position I can see him being drafted anywhere from QB8 - QB18. He's got more upside than many of the others in his bunching, but he's also got considerable bust potential. If Im picking up Romo, Im also making sure that Im pickng up a more settled starter soon thereafter.

If you add 200/2 rushing to his last 6 games passing (projected to 16 games), he was within 10 points of QB3 last season. And that is at 7.7 ypa, which is good but not Peyton like. When you accept top 8 and say that isn't impressive, that is his *downside* from last season. That is, that ignores his first 6 games.To put it another way, from weeks 7 to 12 last season, Romo was QB5 (FBG scoring). From weeks 13 to 17 (Data Dominator doesn't include postseason week 18), he was QB7.Please explain again the downside here...?

6.5, 7.8, 7.7, 7.6, 7.1, 7.5, 9.2, 8.3, 7.9 Those are the ypa of Peyton over the course of his career, and his career average is 7.7The downside of Romo could very well be lower than we've seen so far. His being able to complete 60% for 7.7 isnt a guarenteed low side. There is plenty of uncertainty in Dallas this upcoming year, and his decision making towards the end of last season uncovered plenty of reasons to be wary.If you think his guarenteed low side is top 10, than you're putting him as basically a top 4 QB on your draft board. I still think Romo could very well fall flat on his face. If he starts out poorly, he won't have a long leash no matter what garbage is on the bench. Cowboys fans are only slightly more impatient than their owner.

 

[Tau837]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

Well, FBG stats only deduct 1 for an int. In a -2 league a negative TD/INT ratio hurts alot more. Plus, not too many QBs have a long enough leash to throw that many interceptions without seeing the bench at some point. I say he's a spot starter, because I don't project him as a must start. The stats he posted at the end of last year project to about QB 8, but QB 8 was closer to QB19 than QB6. He's a good candidate for QBBC, but I wouldn't want to have to rely on him week in and week out.

So you think he will play like he ended last season, with no improvement in either the passing or running games?

I think he's closer to the last 6 games than he is the all pro level he displayed the first 6. I'd anticipate him cutting down on the ints somewhat, but also I expect erractic play as he goes through growing pains. To me, he still needs to show something before I'd be comfortable penciling him in as an every week starter.

And erratic play means play like his last 6 games last year, or worse than that? Sorry I'm being persistent, but if we take his last 6 games, which were significantly worse than his first 6, and cut down on his interceptions (your suggestion) he is still at top 8 QB level with no improvement in passing or running. Meanwhile, we have seen him perform much better, just last season (in the first 6 games). And the point of taking his last 6 games is perhaps to say he won't be better than that passing, but what about running? He seems to be a very capable runner who didn't happen to put up running numbers... that could change.In order to project him out of the top 8, you have to be projecting no running improvement combined with worse passing than his final 6 games last season, unless you are projecting injury. Right?

Sorry, but top 8 last year isnt impressive. Take a look at the breakdown of all the QBs. There's a big gap between 6 and 7 and another big gap down to 8. Once you get to 8 you can basically lump in a whole host of other players. One big game here or there or a couple of especially bad games and you drop out of the top 10. There just isnt that much differentiation at that level. He's got good skill position players around him and he's got a chance to post good numbers. He's got a good opportunity with no real competition, but he's still highly untested. And while he's shown signs of being very good, it could have just taken some time for defenses to adjust. Don't forget, that his ypa is very high - Peyton high, and may not be sustainable. Given all the players at the QB position I can see him being drafted anywhere from QB8 - QB18. He's got more upside than many of the others in his bunching, but he's also got considerable bust potential. If Im picking up Romo, Im also making sure that Im pickng up a more settled starter soon thereafter.

If you add 200/2 rushing to his last 6 games passing (projected to 16 games), he was within 10 points of QB3 last season. And that is at 7.7 ypa, which is good but not Peyton like. When you accept top 8 and say that isn't impressive, that is his *downside* from last season. That is, that ignores his first 6 games.To put it another way, from weeks 7 to 12 last season, Romo was QB5 (FBG scoring). From weeks 13 to 17 (Data Dominator doesn't include postseason week 18), he was QB7.Please explain again the downside here...?

6.5, 7.8, 7.7, 7.6, 7.1, 7.5, 9.2, 8.3, 7.9 Those are the ypa of Peyton over the course of his career, and his career average is 7.7The downside of Romo could very well be lower than we've seen so far. His being able to complete 60% for 7.7 isnt a guarenteed low side. There is plenty of uncertainty in Dallas this upcoming year, and his decision making towards the end of last season uncovered plenty of reasons to be wary.If you think his guarenteed low side is top 10, than you're putting him as basically a top 4 QB on your draft board. I still think Romo could very well fall flat on his face. If he starts out poorly, he won't have a long leash no matter what garbage is on the bench. Cowboys fans are only slightly more impatient than their owner.

I'm not expecting a top 4 season, and I wouldn't guarantee a top 10 floor. But I think in light of all information available to us, his reasonable expected case is top 10 with reasonable upside of top 5. I guess my point in this whole discussion is that you seem to be basing your projection on worst case. Do you do that for all QBs? If not, you may be mis-ranking Romo. But we can agree to disagree.On the Peyton thing, I should have looked it up rather than assuming.On the short leash, I couldn't disagree more. IMO he'd have to implode like Ryan Leaf or get hurt to be replaced.

 

[dparker713]

I'm not expecting a top 4 season, and I wouldn't guarantee a top 10 floor. But I think in light of all information available to us, his reasonable expected case is top 10 with reasonable upside of top 5. I guess my point in this whole discussion is that you seem to be basing your projection on worst case. Do you do that for all QBs? If not, you may be mis-ranking Romo. But we can agree to disagree.On the Peyton thing, I should have looked it up rather than assuming.On the short leash, I couldn't disagree more. IMO he'd have to implode like Ryan Leaf or get hurt to be replaced.

Latest FBG rankings:1 Peyton Manning, IND 2 Carson Palmer, CIN3 Tom Brady, NE 4 Drew Brees, NO5 Marc Bulger, STL 6 Donovan McNabb, PHI 7 Jon Kitna, DET 8 Vince Young, TEN 9 Matt Hasselbeck, SEA10 Matt Leinart, ARI 11 Philip Rivers, SD 12 Tony Romo, DAL 13 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT14 Eli Manning, NYG 15 Brett Favre, GB 16 Jay Cutler, DEN 17 Michael Vick, ATL 18 J.P. Losman, BUF 19 Jake Delhomme, CAR 20 Alex Smith, SF I said I could see drafting Romo anywhere from QB8-QB18. Cant see a way to rank Romo ahead of the top 5. McNabb if healthy (yes thats a big if) is a proven top ppg QB. I have a man crush on VY, so that takes care of QB7. Then I think you could make a case for anyone else in the top 20 making the top 10. There are several players that are inexperienced but promising and a few that have been there before. I can make a reasonable case for any of these guys to finish top 10. Some it would be hard to project top 5, and thats why Romo is generally ranked closer to 10 than 20. At this point in the offseason, Im more prone to downgrade players that lack experience until we get some information from camps and preseason. Maybe in two months I'd be willing to upgrade Romo, but if I had to draft right now he's not someone I'd draft and feel secure about my starter.

 

[Tau837]

I'm not expecting a top 4 season, and I wouldn't guarantee a top 10 floor. But I think in light of all information available to us, his reasonable expected case is top 10 with reasonable upside of top 5. I guess my point in this whole discussion is that you seem to be basing your projection on worst case. Do you do that for all QBs? If not, you may be mis-ranking Romo. But we can agree to disagree.On the Peyton thing, I should have looked it up rather than assuming.On the short leash, I couldn't disagree more. IMO he'd have to implode like Ryan Leaf or get hurt to be replaced.

Latest FBG rankings:1 Peyton Manning, IND 2 Carson Palmer, CIN3 Tom Brady, NE 4 Drew Brees, NO5 Marc Bulger, STL 6 Donovan McNabb, PHI 7 Jon Kitna, DET 8 Vince Young, TEN 9 Matt Hasselbeck, SEA10 Matt Leinart, ARI 11 Philip Rivers, SD 12 Tony Romo, DAL 13 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT14 Eli Manning, NYG 15 Brett Favre, GB 16 Jay Cutler, DEN 17 Michael Vick, ATL 18 J.P. Losman, BUF 19 Jake Delhomme, CAR 20 Alex Smith, SF I said I could see drafting Romo anywhere from QB8-QB18. Cant see a way to rank Romo ahead of the top 5. McNabb if healthy (yes thats a big if) is a proven top ppg QB. I have a man crush on VY, so that takes care of QB7. Then I think you could make a case for anyone else in the top 20 making the top 10. There are several players that are inexperienced but promising and a few that have been there before. I can make a reasonable case for any of these guys to finish top 10. Some it would be hard to project top 5, and thats why Romo is generally ranked closer to 10 than 20. At this point in the offseason, Im more prone to downgrade players that lack experience until we get some information from camps and preseason. Maybe in two months I'd be willing to upgrade Romo, but if I had to draft right now he's not someone I'd draft and feel secure about my starter.

OK, good reasoning, though I think your comment about making a case for anyone in the top 20 finishing in the top 10 is a bit extreme... I mean, you can make a case for any of them, sure, but not a reasonable case. Without delving too deeply into it, I would personally rank Romo above Hasselbeck and Leinart. And I'd probably put Rivers above those two as well. I'm not sure what to think about McNabb until we see/hear how he is doing in preseason... I'd probably feel just as uncomfortable with him as with Romo, though.

 

[David Yudkin]

OK, good reasoning, though I think your comment about making a case for anyone in the top 20 finishing in the top 10 is a bit extreme... I mean, you can make a case for any of them, sure, but not a reasonable case. Without delving too deeply into it, I would personally rank Romo above Hasselbeck and Leinart. And I'd probably put Rivers above those two as well. I'm not sure what to think about McNabb until we see/hear how he is doing in preseason... I'd probably feel just as uncomfortable with him as with Romo, though.

IMO, the any one in the Top 20 has a decent shot at the Top 10 is pretty accurate and what I have been suggesting all off season. After the top 6 or 7 guys, there is a ton of other QB that all are projected pretty close to each other. IMO, they all are almost interchangable. I really am not that concerned if a dozen or so QB end up roughly a ppg apart from each other in the rankings where they end up.

 

[Tau837]

OK, good reasoning, though I think your comment about making a case for anyone in the top 20 finishing in the top 10 is a bit extreme... I mean, you can make a case for any of them, sure, but not a reasonable case. Without delving too deeply into it, I would personally rank Romo above Hasselbeck and Leinart. And I'd probably put Rivers above those two as well. I'm not sure what to think about McNabb until we see/hear how he is doing in preseason... I'd probably feel just as uncomfortable with him as with Romo, though.

IMO, the any one in the Top 20 has a dect shot at the Top 10 is pretty accurate and what I have been suggesting all off season. After the top 6 or 7 guys, there is a ton of other QB that all are projected pretty close to each other. IMO, they all are almost interchangable. I really am not that concerned if a dozen or so QB end up roughly a ppg apart from each other in the rankings where they end up.

OK, to pick an obvious one, do you really think there is a reasonable case to be made that Alex Smith (FBG #20) will finish top 10?

 

[David Yudkin]

OK, good reasoning, though I think your comment about making a case for anyone in the top 20 finishing in the top 10 is a bit extreme... I mean, you can make a case for any of them, sure, but not a reasonable case. Without delving too deeply into it, I would personally rank Romo above Hasselbeck and Leinart. And I'd probably put Rivers above those two as well. I'm not sure what to think about McNabb until we see/hear how he is doing in preseason... I'd probably feel just as uncomfortable with him as with Romo, though.

IMO, the any one in the Top 20 has a dect shot at the Top 10 is pretty accurate and what I have been suggesting all off season. After the top 6 or 7 guys, there is a ton of other QB that all are projected pretty close to each other. IMO, they all are almost interchangable. I really am not that concerned if a dozen or so QB end up roughly a ppg apart from each other in the rankings where they end up.

OK, to pick an obvious one, do you really think there is a reasonable case to be made that Alex Smith (FBG #20) will finish top 10?

Going as far up the food chain as QB20 is probably pushing it. IMO, maybe the cutoff should be closer to QB16-18.

 

[Routilla]

Not necessarily in this forum but It seems like plenty of Cowboy fans out there seem to think that Tony Romo is the second coming of Troy Aikman and Roger Staubach based on seeing the guy play for half a season.....well 10 games.Whilst this could turn into a discussion on the pros and cons of Romo's possible success, that's been done in the forum before. The question I did want to pose was....Can people think of other players in the skill offensive positions who started for half a year then bombed the following season once they became full time starters.Kevin Barlow immediately springs to mind when he took over in 2004 and posed 3.4 ypc on 240 carries as the starter.

I'll look at the other side of the coin and point to Larry Johnson who became a true stud. No way to know how Romo comes back from that last play in SEA but with his skill players around him he is in a fairly good situation as QB.

 

[dparker713]

OK, good reasoning, though I think your comment about making a case for anyone in the top 20 finishing in the top 10 is a bit extreme... I mean, you can make a case for any of them, sure, but not a reasonable case. Without delving too deeply into it, I would personally rank Romo above Hasselbeck and Leinart. And I'd probably put Rivers above those two as well. I'm not sure what to think about McNabb until we see/hear how he is doing in preseason... I'd probably feel just as uncomfortable with him as with Romo, though.

IMO, the any one in the Top 20 has a dect shot at the Top 10 is pretty accurate and what I have been suggesting all off season. After the top 6 or 7 guys, there is a ton of other QB that all are projected pretty close to each other. IMO, they all are almost interchangable. I really am not that concerned if a dozen or so QB end up roughly a ppg apart from each other in the rankings where they end up.

OK, to pick an obvious one, do you really think there is a reasonable case to be made that Alex Smith (FBG #20) will finish top 10?

G	Att  Comp Yds  TD  INT  RA  RYds  RTD Fum Points10 QB  Roethlisberger,Ben	PIT 15  470  281 3528   18   23   32	98	 2	2 247.418 QB  Smith,Alex		SF  16  442  257 2890   16   16   41   151	 2	4 221.5

Considering the train wreck Alex Smith was in his first season, he displayed remarkable improvement last season. With some decent improvement this year he could further up his ypa to 6.8 from 6.53 and add on just 4 more TDs and he's a top 10 QB. Do I think he'll do that, no. But its not unreasonable. He's certainly going to get every opportunity to improve, and if Vernon Davis is as good as people think, it could be SD North. Basically, anyone with a real shot at playing all 16 games and has decent talent has a real shot to end up in the end of the year top 10.

 

[Tau837]

OK, good reasoning, though I think your comment about making a case for anyone in the top 20 finishing in the top 10 is a bit extreme... I mean, you can make a case for any of them, sure, but not a reasonable case. Without delving too deeply into it, I would personally rank Romo above Hasselbeck and Leinart. And I'd probably put Rivers above those two as well. I'm not sure what to think about McNabb until we see/hear how he is doing in preseason... I'd probably feel just as uncomfortable with him as with Romo, though.

IMO, the any one in the Top 20 has a dect shot at the Top 10 is pretty accurate and what I have been suggesting all off season. After the top 6 or 7 guys, there is a ton of other QB that all are projected pretty close to each other. IMO, they all are almost interchangable. I really am not that concerned if a dozen or so QB end up roughly a ppg apart from each other in the rankings where they end up.

OK, to pick an obvious one, do you really think there is a reasonable case to be made that Alex Smith (FBG #20) will finish top 10?

G	Att  Comp Yds  TD  INT  RA  RYds  RTD Fum Points10 QB  Roethlisberger,Ben	PIT 15  470  281 3528   18   23   32	98	 2	2 247.418 QB  Smith,Alex		SF  16  442  257 2890   16   16   41   151	 2	4 221.5

Considering the train wreck Alex Smith was in his first season, he displayed remarkable improvement last season. With some decent improvement this year he could further up his ypa to 6.8 from 6.53 and add on just 4 more TDs and he's a top 10 QB. Do I think he'll do that, no. But its not unreasonable. He's certainly going to get every opportunity to improve, and if Vernon Davis is as good as people think, it could be SD North. Basically, anyone with a real shot at playing all 16 games and has decent talent has a real shot to end up in the end of the year top 10.

Agree to disagree. I do not think a "reasonable case" can be made for Smith to be top 10. It would require either (1) several injuries or implosions of QBs currently ranked higher in conjunction with (2) Smith taking a significant step forward statistically. IMO that combination is not reasonable to assume.

 

[dparker713]

Agree to disagree. I do not think a "reasonable case" can be made for Smith to be top 10. It would require either (1) several injuries or implosions of QBs currently ranked higher in conjunction with (2) Smith taking a significant step forward statistically. IMO that combination is not reasonable to assume.

Part 1 is a given. The last free rankings of the FGBs from last year:1 Peyton Manning IND

2 Tom Brady NE

3 Donovan McNabb PHI

4 Carson Palmer CIN

5 Matt Hasselbeck SEA

6 Eli Manning NYG

7 Drew Bledsoe DAL

8 Marc Bulger STL

9 Aaron Brooks OAK

10 Michael Vick ATL

11 Jake Delhomme CAR

12 Jake Plummer DEN

13 Trent Green KC

14 Brett Favre GB

15 Daunte Culpepper MIA

16 Ben Roethlisberger PIT

17 Drew Brees NO

18 Byron Leftwich JAX

19 Kurt Warner ARI

20 Philip Rivers SD

21 Steve McNair BAL

22 Jon Kitna DET

23 David Carr HOU

24 Billy Volek TEN

25 Mark Brunell WAS

26 Chris Simms TB

27 Brad Johnson MIN

28 Charlie Frye CLE

29 Alex Smith SF

30 Chad Pennington NYJ

31 Rex Grossman CHI

32 Kelly Holcomb BUF

Injuries took out McNabb, Hasselback, Green, CPep, Leftwich, Roethlisberger. Rookies replaced Warner and Plummer. Several others just flat disappointed. Low and behold, Rivers played all 16 games and finished the year in 9th place. In fact 12 of the top 14 played in all 16, and Roethlisberger and Young only fully missed 1 game.

Im not going to fully go into Smith because thats kind of besides the point. Any QB with a decent amount of talent that plays a full 16 games has a good shot at making the year end top 10. Considering Smith's situation, I think its safe to say he'll play all 16 barring injury.

 

[Tau837]

Agree to disagree. I do not think a "reasonable case" can be made for Smith to be top 10. It would require either (1) several injuries or implosions of QBs currently ranked higher in conjunction with (2) Smith taking a significant step forward statistically. IMO that combination is not reasonable to assume.

Part 1 is a given. The last free rankings of the FGBs from last year:1 Peyton Manning IND

2 Tom Brady NE

3 Donovan McNabb PHI

4 Carson Palmer CIN

5 Matt Hasselbeck SEA

6 Eli Manning NYG

7 Drew Bledsoe DAL

8 Marc Bulger STL

9 Aaron Brooks OAK

10 Michael Vick ATL

11 Jake Delhomme CAR

12 Jake Plummer DEN

13 Trent Green KC

14 Brett Favre GB

15 Daunte Culpepper MIA

16 Ben Roethlisberger PIT

17 Drew Brees NO

18 Byron Leftwich JAX

19 Kurt Warner ARI

20 Philip Rivers SD

21 Steve McNair BAL

22 Jon Kitna DET

23 David Carr HOU

24 Billy Volek TEN

25 Mark Brunell WAS

26 Chris Simms TB

27 Brad Johnson MIN

28 Charlie Frye CLE

29 Alex Smith SF

30 Chad Pennington NYJ

31 Rex Grossman CHI

32 Kelly Holcomb BUF

Injuries took out McNabb, Hasselback, Green, CPep, Leftwich, Roethlisberger. Rookies replaced Warner and Plummer. Several others just flat disappointed. Low and behold, Rivers played all 16 games and finished the year in 9th place. In fact 12 of the top 14 played in all 16, and Roethlisberger and Young only fully missed 1 game.

Im not going to fully go into Smith because thats kind of besides the point. Any QB with a decent amount of talent that plays a full 16 games has a good shot at making the year end top 10. Considering Smith's situation, I think its safe to say he'll play all 16 barring injury.

None of this proves anything relevant to my point. I'm talking about making a reasonable case for players moving forward, not backward. Are you projecting injuries to several QBs other than Smith? If not, there is no reasonable case for Smith to be top 10. Of course, injuries will happen. But you cannot predict which QBs will be injured before the fact.I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm saying it is not reasonable to project it to happen this year based on what we know now. That was what started this - me disputing the notion that one could legitimately project any QB in the top 20 to finish in the top 10. It isn't reasonable to do that with some QBs, like Smith.

That said, we should end this hijack.

 

[dparker713]

Agree to disagree. I do not think a "reasonable case" can be made for Smith to be top 10. It would require either (1) several injuries or implosions of QBs currently ranked higher in conjunction with (2) Smith taking a significant step forward statistically. IMO that combination is not reasonable to assume.

Part 1 is a given. The last free rankings of the FGBs from last year:1 Peyton Manning IND

2 Tom Brady NE

3 Donovan McNabb PHI

4 Carson Palmer CIN

5 Matt Hasselbeck SEA

6 Eli Manning NYG

7 Drew Bledsoe DAL

8 Marc Bulger STL

9 Aaron Brooks OAK

10 Michael Vick ATL

11 Jake Delhomme CAR

12 Jake Plummer DEN

13 Trent Green KC

14 Brett Favre GB

15 Daunte Culpepper MIA

16 Ben Roethlisberger PIT

17 Drew Brees NO

18 Byron Leftwich JAX

19 Kurt Warner ARI

20 Philip Rivers SD

21 Steve McNair BAL

22 Jon Kitna DET

23 David Carr HOU

24 Billy Volek TEN

25 Mark Brunell WAS

26 Chris Simms TB

27 Brad Johnson MIN

28 Charlie Frye CLE

29 Alex Smith SF

30 Chad Pennington NYJ

31 Rex Grossman CHI

32 Kelly Holcomb BUF

Injuries took out McNabb, Hasselback, Green, CPep, Leftwich, Roethlisberger. Rookies replaced Warner and Plummer. Several others just flat disappointed. Low and behold, Rivers played all 16 games and finished the year in 9th place. In fact 12 of the top 14 played in all 16, and Roethlisberger and Young only fully missed 1 game.

Im not going to fully go into Smith because thats kind of besides the point. Any QB with a decent amount of talent that plays a full 16 games has a good shot at making the year end top 10. Considering Smith's situation, I think its safe to say he'll play all 16 barring injury.

None of this proves anything relevant to my point. I'm talking about making a reasonable case for players moving forward, not backward. Are you projecting injuries to several QBs other than Smith? If not, there is no reasonable case for Smith to be top 10. Of course, injuries will happen. But you cannot predict which QBs will be injured before the fact.I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm saying it is not reasonable to project it to happen this year based on what we know now. That was what started this - me disputing the notion that one could legitimately project any QB in the top 20 to finish in the top 10. It isn't reasonable to do that with some QBs, like Smith.

That said, we should end this hijack.

My point is that you can anticipate some variable number of players above Smith to not perform for any number of reasons. So, if you project him to about 240-250 points (good progress but hardly unreachable), thats atleast near the top 10. Since year to year there is a decent level of consistency in the output of QB10 or QB15, the expectations of other QBs are fairly irrelevant. If he reaches that projection he's gonna be right there for QB10. The other players will fail of their own accord. This is all possible because of the relatively small seperation for a large percentage of the QBs. There just won't be 10 QBs that play at an elite level for the year. Smith doesn't need to be the 10th best passer, he just needs to play every week and compile stats.The biggest problem isn't that you can't project Smith to the top 10, the biggest problem is the always inflated projections that year in and year out expect record offense in the NFL.

 

[Neo]

Well, this guys at camp and he's drinking the kool aid:

Romo's Performance at Camp

Just a tidbit:

I had focused on every position thus far except quarterback. Maybe it’s because Tony Romo has been so trouble free thus far that I had already started to take him for granted.

Big mistake. I moved to a high section to get a better view of the bigger passing drills and got two eyefulls of Romomonium.

He’s sharp folks. Crazy sharp. Scary sharp.

He’s getting his passes away fast. Hard. On target.

Romo has no fear of coverage right now. He’s challenging defenders and beating them, not in ways that recall the reckless gunslinger from ‘06, but in ways that evoke Hall of Famers.

 

[BigRed]

Wow a lot of Cowboy fans are hyping Romo, go figure, I can't believe they aren't ripping on him or something.

Next thing you'll tell me is Bronco fans are hyping Cutler n stuff. Madness I say.

 

[Ed4252]

I'd hate to post a competitor's article but here's a good one: http://www.fftoday.com/articles/waldman/07...alf_wonders.htm

Look at the QB section:

It starts off by stating: Quarterbacks have the best follow up seasons when it comes to attaining their second half numbers from the season before. As mentioned last year, once football no longer feels like practicing organic chemistry in pads, it makes sense a starting quarterback that has made the adjustment to the NFL will continue to improve.

 

[BigRed]

I'd hate to post a competitor's article but here's a good one: http://www.fftoday.com/articles/waldman/07...alf_wonders.htm

Look at the QB section:

It starts off by stating: Quarterbacks have the best follow up seasons when it comes to attaining their second half numbers from the season before. As mentioned last year, once football no longer feels like practicing organic chemistry in pads, it makes sense a starting quarterback that has made the adjustment to the NFL will continue to improve.

It's hard to take an article seriously that doesn't even know who the OC for the Panthers is (I won't even get into constantly referring to himself in the 3d person as "the gut check"). That aside, if this presents any conclusive evidence that a great end to the year before = great year the next season, it's well hidden. In fact, the numbers seem to indicate anything but. IMO just more evidence that the whole theory is overblown and doesn't hold up with any consistency.Back to Romo, I like his chances for at least a good - maybe great - year, although I prefer someone more proven. Could be a great value pick though.

 

[zoonation]

i just can't figure how this guy isnt in everyone's top 10. he has the tools and the cast.

last year FBG ranks Bledsoe 7, who was way worse than Romo, but he comes in at 12 this year behind Vince Young???

I'll lay money that Romo outproduces Young this year ff-wise