Ronnie Brown at consensus #7? (1 Viewer)

[Iron_Far]

I have 2 words for the trip that's going on here:

Hudson Houck.

 

[Blackjacks]

Take away the 2 games against Atl where he ran for 266 yards and he had a medocire season.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

oh, ok.

He ran for 100 yds 6 times last year (IIRC) and missed 3 games due to injury...in his rookie year.

He blows.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So what your saying is You want a guy who is going to rush for a hundred yards 6 times a year, miss three games due to injury and have UNDER 30 yards in 5 GAMES. Oh, I almost forgot he also gets his td's taken away from him inside the ten and probably won't be in on most third down situations. Go right ahead sir.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Come on Capella I want to hear what you have to say about this.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Last year the Dolphin RBs as a group did this:

397 rushes for 1725 yards and 11 TDs; 62 rec for 396 yards and 1 TD.

That's 2121 total yards and 12 TDs.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams together accounted for 93% of the yards and 92% of the TDs. Individually, it breaks down like this:

                  Yards  TDsRonnie Brown        54%   42%Ricky Williams      39%   50%Other RBs            7%    8%It's likely that about half of Williams' production from last year will go to Brown. That would give Brown 291 carries, which seems pretty reasonable. With half of Ricky's production, that gives Brown 1557 total yards and 8 TDs.With those projections, he belongs in the top ten, IMO.

Also, pulling our noses out of the stat books for a minute and reflecting on the ability Ronnie Brown showed last year, it appears to me that he's good. He's a tough runner with great balance and some very nice moves in the hole. There were times last year when Brown was the only bright spot on the Dolphins' offense.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Pretty entertaining thread....

Comparing Ronnie Brown to Kevan Barlow a few years ago is borderline ridiculous, because their situations couldn't be more different.  The 49ers lost Garcia, Owens, and 3/5 of their offensive line in the offseason before Barlow took over as the starter, and it's no wonder he's struggled even if a lot of people have condemned him for it.  Nothing like that is happening in Miami, and the team appears to be on the way up, not the way down.  Factor in his receiving ability and blocking ability, and there's a ton of potential in there.  While #7 is possibly a few spots too high, top 10 is hardly a reach. 

Splitting carries with Ricky last year might have been a great thing for him, because it let him get acclamated to the NFL game slower, and he'll head into his first year as a starter with more of an understanding of what's expected of him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"hardly a reach"please post your top 15, with Brown in the top 10.

 

[Blackjacks]

Last year the Dolphin RBs as a group did this:

397 rushes for 1725 yards and 11 TDs; 62 rec for 396 yards and 1 TD.

That's 2121 total yards and 12 TDs.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams together accounted for 93% of the yards and 92% of the TDs. Individually, it breaks down like this:

                  Yards  TDsRonnie Brown        54%   42%Ricky Williams      39%   50%Other RBs            7%    8%It's likely that about half of Williams' production from last year will go to Brown. That would give Brown 291 carries, which seems pretty reasonable. With half of Ricky's production, that gives Brown 1557 total yards and 8 TDs.With those projections, he belongs in the top ten, IMO.

Also, pulling our noses out of the stat books for a minute and reflecting on the ability Ronnie Brown showed last year, it appears to me that he's good. He's a tough runner with great balance and some very nice moves in the hole. There were times last year when Brown was the only bright spot on the Dolphins' offense.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I personally see more td's as well but I like where your coming from.

 

[Blackjacks]

Pretty entertaining thread....

Comparing Ronnie Brown to Kevan Barlow a few years ago is borderline ridiculous, because their situations couldn't be more different.  The 49ers lost Garcia, Owens, and 3/5 of their offensive line in the offseason before Barlow took over as the starter, and it's no wonder he's struggled even if a lot of people have condemned him for it.  Nothing like that is happening in Miami, and the team appears to be on the way up, not the way down.  Factor in his receiving ability and blocking ability, and there's a ton of potential in there.  While #7 is possibly a few spots too high, top 10 is hardly a reach. 

Splitting carries with Ricky last year might have been a great thing for him, because it let him get acclamated to the NFL game slower, and he'll head into his first year as a starter with more of an understanding of what's expected of him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"hardly a reach"please post your top 15, with Brown in the top 10.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LTAlexander

LJ

Portis

Barber

R. Johnson

S. Jackson

Jordan

Brown

Caddy

Westbrook

D. Davis

McGahee

J. Jones

J .Addai

What next

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Last year the Dolphin RBs as a group did this:

397 rushes for 1725 yards and 11 TDs; 62 rec for 396 yards and 1 TD.

That's 2121 total yards and 12 TDs.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams together accounted for 93% of the yards and 92% of the TDs. Individually, it breaks down like this:

                  Yards  TDsRonnie Brown        54%   42%Ricky Williams      39%   50%Other RBs            7%    8%It's likely that about half of Williams' production from last year will go to Brown. That would give Brown 291 carries, which seems pretty reasonable. With half of Ricky's production, that gives Brown 1557 total yards and 8 TDs.With those projections, he belongs in the top ten, IMO.

Also, pulling our noses out of the stat books for a minute and reflecting on the ability Ronnie Brown showed last year, it appears to me that he's good. He's a tough runner with great balance and some very nice moves in the hole. There were times last year when Brown was the only bright spot on the Dolphins' offense.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

barely cracks the top 10, and it's nice to be able to just take half the production from a former #1 RB and assume the kid can do it.The whole "he's good thing" is the reason I said he's in the top 15, and likely a little better.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Pretty entertaining thread....

Comparing Ronnie Brown to Kevan Barlow a few years ago is borderline ridiculous, because their situations couldn't be more different.  The 49ers lost Garcia, Owens, and 3/5 of their offensive line in the offseason before Barlow took over as the starter, and it's no wonder he's struggled even if a lot of people have condemned him for it.  Nothing like that is happening in Miami, and the team appears to be on the way up, not the way down.  Factor in his receiving ability and blocking ability, and there's a ton of potential in there.  While #7 is possibly a few spots too high, top 10 is hardly a reach. 

Splitting carries with Ricky last year might have been a great thing for him, because it let him get acclamated to the NFL game slower, and he'll head into his first year as a starter with more of an understanding of what's expected of him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"hardly a reach"please post your top 15, with Brown in the top 10.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LTAlexander

LJ

Portis

Barber

R. Johnson

S. Jackson

Jordan

Brown

Caddy

Westbrook

D. Davis

McGahee

J. Jones

J .Addai

What next

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wanted to see what you were thinking. I note you don't even have last year's #7 or #8 total yards producers Reuben Droughns and Warrick Dunn. Odd. 1600 hards for each of those guys, but you'll put Addai and Caddy and Brown ahead of them.Interesting.

 

[bagger.]

Wanted to see what you were thinking.  I note you don't even have last year's #7 or #8 total yards producers Reuben Droughns and Warrick Dunn.  Odd.  1600 hards for each of those guys, but you'll put Addai and Caddy and Brown ahead of them.

Interesting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Interesting indeed.

 

[Banger]

Pretty entertaining thread....

Comparing Ronnie Brown to Kevan Barlow a few years ago is borderline ridiculous, because their situations couldn't be more different.  The 49ers lost Garcia, Owens, and 3/5 of their offensive line in the offseason before Barlow took over as the starter, and it's no wonder he's struggled even if a lot of people have condemned him for it.  Nothing like that is happening in Miami, and the team appears to be on the way up, not the way down.  Factor in his receiving ability and blocking ability, and there's a ton of potential in there.  While #7 is possibly a few spots too high, top 10 is hardly a reach. 

Splitting carries with Ricky last year might have been a great thing for him, because it let him get acclamated to the NFL game slower, and he'll head into his first year as a starter with more of an understanding of what's expected of him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"hardly a reach"please post your top 15, with Brown in the top 10.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LTAlexander

LJ

Portis

Barber

R. Johnson

S. Jackson

Jordan

Brown

Caddy

Westbrook

D. Davis

McGahee

J. Jones

J .Addai

What next

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wanted to see what you were thinking. I note you don't even have last year's #7 or #8 total yards producers Reuben Droughns and Warrick Dunn. Odd. 1600 hards for each of those guys, but you'll put Addai and Caddy and Brown ahead of them.Interesting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I would put Caddy ahead of them as well not Addai though.

 

[Steelers4Life]

Pretty entertaining thread....

Comparing Ronnie Brown to Kevan Barlow a few years ago is borderline ridiculous, because their situations couldn't be more different.  The 49ers lost Garcia, Owens, and 3/5 of their offensive line in the offseason before Barlow took over as the starter, and it's no wonder he's struggled even if a lot of people have condemned him for it.  Nothing like that is happening in Miami, and the team appears to be on the way up, not the way down.  Factor in his receiving ability and blocking ability, and there's a ton of potential in there.  While #7 is possibly a few spots too high, top 10 is hardly a reach. 

Splitting carries with Ricky last year might have been a great thing for him, because it let him get acclamated to the NFL game slower, and he'll head into his first year as a starter with more of an understanding of what's expected of him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"hardly a reach"please post your top 15, with Brown in the top 10.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

In a redraft league, the only RBs who I would take over Brown right now are:LJ

LT

Alexander

Portis

Barber

Jordan

Edge

Jackson

So, that puts Brown 9th on the list. I feel a case can be made to draft Brown over Jackson, and I won't be completely suprised if he outscores another 1 or 2 of the guys I have listed ahead of him. A couple guys not listed may finish ahead of him, so regardless, I don't think putting him in the top 10 is anything close to a reach.

In a dynasty league, he ranks just about the same, although I'd take him over Barber in that format.

I liked Brown more than Caddy coming out of school, and I still do. As for the other potential guys to list ahead of him, I'm sure a case can be made for them. Droughns, Westbrook, Dunn, McGahee, Jones... thing is, none of them are any more of a sure-thing than Brown is, and none of them (in my opinion) have his talent or upside.

 

[Blackjacks]

Pretty entertaining thread....

Comparing Ronnie Brown to Kevan Barlow a few years ago is borderline ridiculous, because their situations couldn't be more different.  The 49ers lost Garcia, Owens, and 3/5 of their offensive line in the offseason before Barlow took over as the starter, and it's no wonder he's struggled even if a lot of people have condemned him for it.  Nothing like that is happening in Miami, and the team appears to be on the way up, not the way down.  Factor in his receiving ability and blocking ability, and there's a ton of potential in there.  While #7 is possibly a few spots too high, top 10 is hardly a reach. 

Splitting carries with Ricky last year might have been a great thing for him, because it let him get acclamated to the NFL game slower, and he'll head into his first year as a starter with more of an understanding of what's expected of him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"hardly a reach"please post your top 15, with Brown in the top 10.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LTAlexander

LJ

Portis

Barber

R. Johnson

S. Jackson

Jordan

Brown

Caddy

Westbrook

D. Davis

McGahee

J. Jones

J .Addai

What next

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wanted to see what you were thinking. I note you don't even have last year's #7 or #8 total yards producers Reuben Droughns and Warrick Dunn. Odd. 1600 hards for each of those guys, but you'll put Addai and Caddy and Brown ahead of them.Interesting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Funny how you talk about yards between those guys but not td's. Between the two of them they had one more than Brown splitting time (6 td's between the 2 of them.). I'm not even worried about Warrick Dunn, very nice player though, ever cracking the top ten. Droughens is alittle more intriguing but Cleveland is probably still another year away. It's funny no one is questioning E. James not being in my list.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Pretty entertaining thread....

Comparing Ronnie Brown to Kevan Barlow a few years ago is borderline ridiculous, because their situations couldn't be more different.  The 49ers lost Garcia, Owens, and 3/5 of their offensive line in the offseason before Barlow took over as the starter, and it's no wonder he's struggled even if a lot of people have condemned him for it.  Nothing like that is happening in Miami, and the team appears to be on the way up, not the way down.  Factor in his receiving ability and blocking ability, and there's a ton of potential in there.  While #7 is possibly a few spots too high, top 10 is hardly a reach. 

Splitting carries with Ricky last year might have been a great thing for him, because it let him get acclamated to the NFL game slower, and he'll head into his first year as a starter with more of an understanding of what's expected of him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"hardly a reach"please post your top 15, with Brown in the top 10.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LTAlexander

LJ

Portis

Barber

R. Johnson

S. Jackson

Jordan

Brown

Caddy

Westbrook

D. Davis

McGahee

J. Jones

J .Addai

What next

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wanted to see what you were thinking. I note you don't even have last year's #7 or #8 total yards producers Reuben Droughns and Warrick Dunn. Odd. 1600 hards for each of those guys, but you'll put Addai and Caddy and Brown ahead of them.Interesting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Funny how you talk about yards between those guys but not td's. Between the two of them they had one more than Brown splitting time (6 td's between the 2 of them.). I'm not even worried about Warrick Dunn, very nice player though, ever cracking the top ten. Droughens is alittle more intriguing but Cleveland is probably still another year away. It's funny no one is questioning E. James not being in my list.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You can't predict TDs. I didn't notice Edge. That's just stupidity putting Addai on a list and not Edge. You make me laugh.

 

[LHUCKS]

Brown is too high at #7 and will be hilighted in my RB rankings critique.

 

[mbuehner]

The top 6 RBs are kinda no-brainers. They are featured backs that have performed well in the past on good or great offenses.

Once you hit 7+ I think there are a lot of valid scenarios. You have talented RBs in questionable offenses or RBBC or coming off injury (or all 3 in Westbrooks case). Jackson, Caddy, Jones, & Brown can fall in any combination imo. I think you just go with who you think has the most natural talent and figure the cream will rise to the top. Personally I like Brown, Caddy, Jackson, (large gap) Jones in that order.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

The top 6 RBs are kinda no-brainers. They are featured backs that have performed well in the past on good or great offenses.

Once you hit 7+ I think there are a lot of valid scenarios. You have talented RBs in questionable offenses or RBBC or coming off injury (or all 3 in Westbrooks case). Jackson, Caddy, Jones, & Brown can fall in any combination imo. I think you just go with who you think has the most natural talent and figure the cream will rise to the top. Personally I like Brown, Caddy, Jackson, (large gap) Jones in that order.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Your top 6 are.....?

 

[mbuehner]

SA,LJ,LT,Tiki, Portis, Jordan.

Rudi will probably round out my cant miss list when we hear a Palmer update (Palmer + an increasing role for Perry, if its just 1 question mark he breaks in). Edge has a lot of question marks, i can see the argument with him around 5 or 6 but i think he belongs around 10. My point is I dont think there is much reason to deny those 6 as being sure fire first round picks on basically everybodys sheets. Everybody else will have a ton more variation.

 

[Blackjacks]

Pretty entertaining thread....

Comparing Ronnie Brown to Kevan Barlow a few years ago is borderline ridiculous, because their situations couldn't be more different.  The 49ers lost Garcia, Owens, and 3/5 of their offensive line in the offseason before Barlow took over as the starter, and it's no wonder he's struggled even if a lot of people have condemned him for it.  Nothing like that is happening in Miami, and the team appears to be on the way up, not the way down.  Factor in his receiving ability and blocking ability, and there's a ton of potential in there.  While #7 is possibly a few spots too high, top 10 is hardly a reach. 

Splitting carries with Ricky last year might have been a great thing for him, because it let him get acclamated to the NFL game slower, and he'll head into his first year as a starter with more of an understanding of what's expected of him.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"hardly a reach"please post your top 15, with Brown in the top 10.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LTAlexander

LJ

Portis

Barber

R. Johnson

S. Jackson

Jordan

Brown

Caddy

Westbrook

D. Davis

McGahee

J. Jones

J .Addai

What next

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wanted to see what you were thinking. I note you don't even have last year's #7 or #8 total yards producers Reuben Droughns and Warrick Dunn. Odd. 1600 hards for each of those guys, but you'll put Addai and Caddy and Brown ahead of them.Interesting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Funny how you talk about yards between those guys but not td's. Between the two of them they had one more than Brown splitting time (6 td's between the 2 of them.). I'm not even worried about Warrick Dunn, very nice player though, ever cracking the top ten. Droughens is alittle more intriguing but Cleveland is probably still another year away. It's funny no one is questioning E. James not being in my list.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You can't predict TDs. I didn't notice Edge. That's just stupidity putting Addai on a list and not Edge. You make me laugh.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You'll see. Stupid is stupid does!!!!

 

[Joe T]

Last year the Dolphin RBs as a group did this:

397 rushes for 1725 yards and 11 TDs; 62 rec for 396 yards and 1 TD.

That's 2121 total yards and 12 TDs.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams together accounted for 93% of the yards and 92% of the TDs. Individually, it breaks down like this:

                  Yards  TDsRonnie Brown        54%   42%Ricky Williams      39%   50%Other RBs            7%    8%It's likely that about half of Williams' production from last year will go to Brown. That would give Brown 291 carries, which seems pretty reasonable. With half of Ricky's production, that gives Brown 1557 total yards and 8 TDs.With those projections, he belongs in the top ten, IMO.

Also, pulling our noses out of the stat books for a minute and reflecting on the ability Ronnie Brown showed last year, it appears to me that he's good. He's a tough runner with great balance and some very nice moves in the hole. There were times last year when Brown was the only bright spot on the Dolphins' offense.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's an interesting piece of logic to just hand him 50% of Ricky's numbers. I would argue that this is his top end. I don't see him getting more than 1500 total yards, 45 catches and 8 TD's. That would be good for RB 9 in WCOFF scoring last year.I don't see how you can reasonably get him to RB 7 without adding his top end to a boat load of hype.

When you take what is his top end above is and combine with the question marks around whether or not he can carry the majority of the load (which he's never done), then you can safely/comfortably put him around RB 14.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

It's an interesting piece of logic to just hand him 50% of Ricky's numbers. I would argue that this is his top end.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How many carries do you think he'll get? Do you really think 291 carries is his top end?

 

[j3r3m3y]

Last year the Dolphin RBs as a group did this:

397 rushes for 1725 yards and 11 TDs; 62 rec for 396 yards and 1 TD.

That's 2121 total yards and 12 TDs.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams together accounted for 93% of the yards and 92% of the TDs. Individually, it breaks down like this:

                  Yards  TDsRonnie Brown        54%   42%Ricky Williams      39%   50%Other RBs            7%    8%It's likely that about half of Williams' production from last year will go to Brown. That would give Brown 291 carries, which seems pretty reasonable. With half of Ricky's production, that gives Brown 1557 total yards and 8 TDs.With those projections, he belongs in the top ten, IMO.

Also, pulling our noses out of the stat books for a minute and reflecting on the ability Ronnie Brown showed last year, it appears to me that he's good. He's a tough runner with great balance and some very nice moves in the hole. There were times last year when Brown was the only bright spot on the Dolphins' offense.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's an interesting piece of logic to just hand him 50% of Ricky's numbers. I would argue that this is his top end. I don't see him getting more than 1500 total yards, 45 catches and 8 TD's. That would be good for RB 9 in WCOFF scoring last year.I don't see how you can reasonably get him to RB 7 without adding his top end to a boat load of hype.

When you take what is his top end above is and combine with the question marks around whether or not he can carry the majority of the load (which he's never done), then you can safely/comfortably put him around RB 14.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You will never get him that low. Being too conservative is as wrong as being too aggressive.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Last year the Dolphin RBs as a group did this:

397 rushes for 1725 yards and 11 TDs; 62 rec for 396 yards and 1 TD.

That's 2121 total yards and 12 TDs.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams together accounted for 93% of the yards and 92% of the TDs. Individually, it breaks down like this:

                  Yards  TDsRonnie Brown        54%   42%Ricky Williams      39%   50%Other RBs            7%    8%It's likely that about half of Williams' production from last year will go to Brown. That would give Brown 291 carries, which seems pretty reasonable. With half of Ricky's production, that gives Brown 1557 total yards and 8 TDs.With those projections, he belongs in the top ten, IMO.

Also, pulling our noses out of the stat books for a minute and reflecting on the ability Ronnie Brown showed last year, it appears to me that he's good. He's a tough runner with great balance and some very nice moves in the hole. There were times last year when Brown was the only bright spot on the Dolphins' offense.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's an interesting piece of logic to just hand him 50% of Ricky's numbers. I would argue that this is his top end. I don't see him getting more than 1500 total yards, 45 catches and 8 TD's. That would be good for RB 9 in WCOFF scoring last year.I don't see how you can reasonably get him to RB 7 without adding his top end to a boat load of hype.

When you take what is his top end above is and combine with the question marks around whether or not he can carry the majority of the load (which he's never done), then you can safely/comfortably put him around RB 14.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You will never get him that low. Being too conservative is as wrong as being too aggressive.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You don't think it's possible that he'll be selected at RB14? (edited to signify positional ranking as opposed to overall)

 

[Verbal Kint]

However there are as many reasons to rank him top-ten then outside it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Since projections are a zero sum game, how do you (not you personally, but in general) justify bumping someone out of the top 10 like a Portis or a James (or whoever it may be) who has a proven track record.DOES NOBODY REMEMBER THE KEVAN BARLOW INCIDENT?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

for every Barlow there is a LaMont Jordan.

 

[Joe T]

Last year the Dolphin RBs as a group did this:

397 rushes for 1725 yards and 11 TDs; 62 rec for 396 yards and 1 TD.

That's 2121 total yards and 12 TDs.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams together accounted for 93% of the yards and 92% of the TDs. Individually, it breaks down like this:

                  Yards  TDsRonnie Brown        54%   42%Ricky Williams      39%   50%Other RBs            7%    8%It's likely that about half of Williams' production from last year will go to Brown. That would give Brown 291 carries, which seems pretty reasonable. With half of Ricky's production, that gives Brown 1557 total yards and 8 TDs.With those projections, he belongs in the top ten, IMO.

Also, pulling our noses out of the stat books for a minute and reflecting on the ability Ronnie Brown showed last year, it appears to me that he's good. He's a tough runner with great balance and some very nice moves in the hole. There were times last year when Brown was the only bright spot on the Dolphins' offense.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's an interesting piece of logic to just hand him 50% of Ricky's numbers. I would argue that this is his top end. I don't see him getting more than 1500 total yards, 45 catches and 8 TD's. That would be good for RB 9 in WCOFF scoring last year.I don't see how you can reasonably get him to RB 7 without adding his top end to a boat load of hype.

When you take what is his top end above is and combine with the question marks around whether or not he can carry the majority of the load (which he's never done), then you can safely/comfortably put him around RB 14.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You will never get him that low. Being too conservative is as wrong as being too aggressive.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's most of the point. I have him ranked there. I'll let others step on that land mine before me... they can find out if it explodes.

 

[Joe T]

It's an interesting piece of logic to just hand him 50% of Ricky's numbers. I would argue that this is his top end.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How many carries do you think he'll get? Do you really think 291 carries is his top end?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think 350 touches is his top end. Saban will not give him more than that in order to reduce the risk of a breakdown.So some combination near 295 carries and 45 catches is his top end. Which if he has a great year will put him somewhere around RB 9 in WCOFF scoring and certainly doesn't justify ranking in the top 10.

 

[Joe T]

However there are as many reasons to rank him top-ten then outside it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Since projections are a zero sum game, how do you (not you personally, but in general) justify bumping someone out of the top 10 like a Portis or a James (or whoever it may be) who has a proven track record.DOES NOBODY REMEMBER THE KEVAN BARLOW INCIDENT?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

for every Barlow there is a LaMont Jordan.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Barlow was going mid to late first round. Jordan was going early to mid second round. There is a huge difference.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

However there are as many reasons to rank him top-ten then outside it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Since projections are a zero sum game, how do you (not you personally, but in general) justify bumping someone out of the top 10 like a Portis or a James (or whoever it may be) who has a proven track record.DOES NOBODY REMEMBER THE KEVAN BARLOW INCIDENT?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

for every Barlow there is a LaMont Jordan.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Barlow was going mid to late first round. Jordan was going early to mid second round. There is a huge difference.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Massive.

 

[Verbal Kint]

However there are as many reasons to rank him top-ten then outside it.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Since projections are a zero sum game, how do you (not you personally, but in general) justify bumping someone out of the top 10 like a Portis or a James (or whoever it may be) who has a proven track record.DOES NOBODY REMEMBER THE KEVAN BARLOW INCIDENT?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

for every Barlow there is a LaMont Jordan.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Barlow was going mid to late first round. Jordan was going early to mid second round. There is a huge difference.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

2 years ago I drafted Barlow at 2.01 in a 12 team. Last year Jordan went at the same spot in the same league.

 

[blkgolf23]

-- Saints to Shop Bennett to Dolphins? --Wed May 10, 2006 --from FFMastermind.comThe Miami Herald reports one official in contact with both teams said he expects New Orleans Saints executive Rick Mueller will call his brother, Dolphins GM Randy Mueller, and shop ex-Vikings RB Michael Bennett.

I think Brown will be top 10 and could make a run for top 5. Bennett can come on on 3rd down and Brown can play the slot.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

-- Saints to Shop Bennett to Dolphins? --

Wed May 10, 2006 --from FFMastermind.com

The Miami Herald reports one official in contact with both teams said he expects New Orleans Saints executive Rick Mueller will call his brother, Dolphins GM Randy Mueller, and shop ex-Vikings RB Michael Bennett.

I think Brown will be top 10 and could make a run for top 5. Bennett can come on on 3rd down and Brown can play the slot.

if he's not an every down back, it's going to be touh to get into the top 10, much less the top 5.

 

[blkgolf23]

-- Saints to Shop Bennett to Dolphins? --

Wed May 10, 2006 --from FFMastermind.com

The Miami Herald reports one official in contact with both teams said he expects New Orleans Saints executive Rick Mueller will call his brother, Dolphins GM Randy Mueller, and shop ex-Vikings RB Michael Bennett.

I think Brown will be top 10 and could make a run for top 5. Bennett can come on on 3rd down and Brown can play the slot.

if he's not an every down back, it's going to be touh to get into the top 10, much less the top 5.

I didn't say he wasn't a everydown back. I think he is, but with a RB like Bennett he can plat the slot on 3rd downs and the D wouldn't be able to go right into a nickle pack with 1 TE, 2 WR, and 2 RBs. Miami did this some last yr with Ricky and Ronnie.

 

[el-gato-grande]

I think the more interesting discussion (and quandry) is who on the current Dolphins roster is the going to serve as a backup to Brown. With his durability in question, the backup runningback in Miami becomes a fairly valuable commodity.

Sammy Morris is certainly #2 on the depth chart right now, but I think the dark horse is Gerald Riggs, Jr. He is the only back on the roster that truly has RB1 measurables other than Ronnie Brown. He doesn't have a ton of experience having spent the bulk of his time at UT behind Cedric Houston or on the injured list, but he definately has loads of talent and a good pedigree. I was shocked when he fell out of the draft. He was projected as a mid-round pick.

Of course, the other possibility is that Miami's RB2 isn't on the roster yet. But, I would certainly keep an eye on Riggs.

 

[blkgolf23]

I think the more interesting discussion (and quandry) is who on the current Dolphins roster is the going to serve as a backup to Brown. With his durability in question, the backup runningback in Miami becomes a fairly valuable commodity.

Sammy Morris is certainly #2 on the depth chart right now, but I think the dark horse is Gerald Riggs, Jr. He is the only back on the roster that truly has RB1 measurables other than Ronnie Brown. He doesn't have a ton of experience having spent the bulk of his time at UT behind Cedric Houston or on the injured list, but he definately has loads of talent and a good pedigree. I was shocked when he fell out of the draft. He was projected as a mid-round pick.

Of course, the other possibility is that Miami's RB2 isn't on the roster yet. But, I would certainly keep an eye on Riggs.

Why is there a durability question with Ronnie Brown? I just checked NFL.com and he only had 1 DNP vs. Caddy who had 2. If I missing something please let me know, becasue I have to pick 2 keepers out of J. Jones, Rudi Johnson, and Mr. Brown. As of today Jones is the odd man out, but in my league I can Brown today.

 

[el-gato-grande]

I think the more interesting discussion (and quandry) is who on the current Dolphins roster is the going to serve as a backup to Brown.  With his durability in question, the backup runningback in Miami becomes a fairly valuable commodity. 

Sammy Morris is certainly #2 on the depth chart right now, but I think the dark horse is Gerald Riggs, Jr.  He is the only back on the roster that truly has RB1 measurables other than Ronnie Brown.  He doesn't have a ton of experience having spent the bulk of his time at UT behind Cedric Houston or on the injured list, but he definately has loads of talent and a good pedigree.  I was shocked when he fell out of the draft. He was projected as a mid-round pick.

Of course, the other possibility is that Miami's RB2 isn't on the roster yet.  But, I would certainly keep an eye on Riggs. 

Why is there a durability question with Ronnie Brown? I just checked NFL.com and he only had 1 DNP vs. Caddy who had 2. If I missing something please let me know, becasue I have to pick 2 keepers out of J. Jones, Rudi Johnson, and Mr. Brown. As of today Jones is the odd man out, but in my league I can Brown today.

You can't simply look at DNPs. Brown's play was sub-par down the stretch because he played hurt. In the first 8 games, he rushed 126 times for 611 yards (4.8 avg). In last 8, he only rushed 81 times for 296 yards (3.6 avg). That is a pretty big drop off. You can say Ricky Williams play contributed to that, but I contend it was Brown's injury that opened the door for Ricky. Either way, Brown has yet to show he can carry the load for an entire season. I'm not ready to tag him as "injury prone" because one season isn't enough data to make that determination, but there is enough doubt there to take a hard look at whoever wins the backup job.

 

[MLBrandow]

PS: Triumverate of Hype™

that's pro.Whoever was about Brown.... our bet is still on right?

He's not cracking 1000 yards.

So, pick him at #7

 

[Joe T]

calling it now.

:excellentpost:

 

[LHUCKS]

Brown is too high at #7 and will be hilighted in my RB rankings critique.

since JoeT bumped the thread...

 

[Kleck.]

Joe T and co. nail another one.

Looking forward to next years 1st round RB bust thread. It's a must read for those who don't already know.

 

[wilked]

Glad to see JoeT and MTS proving the "sharks" wrong again

edited to add B.A.Gger

 

[dgreen]

Great job predicting the injury, guys.

 

[mofunk]

In my scoring system, if you take his average points per week and plug those into the 3 weeks he missed, then he sits at #11 in RB scoring. I feel he was not utilized correctly by Mularkey this year!

 

[BassNBrew]

6) the rest who will still beat him:Edge (yes, in a new uniform, he'll still eat RBrown's lunch)RudiDunnDeuceCaddyLaMont (the big dummy)JJonesDom Davis.

NopeYesNopeYesNopeNopeNopeNopeBrown didn't really turn out to be that bad of a pick at that spot.

 

[BigJim®]

6) the rest who will still beat him:Edge (yes, in a new uniform, he'll still eat RBrown's lunch)RudiDunnDeuceCaddyLaMont (the big dummy)JJonesDom Davis.

NopeYesNopeYesNopeNopeNopeNopeBrown didn't really turn out to be that bad of a pick at that spot.

While some of the reasoning/guesswork became true, Brown was a consistent (if unspectacular) top 10 RB in my league when he went down with a broken hand. Based on the above results, a person was no more wrong taking Brown than most of the RBs the initial poster suggested to be better RB options than him. Lets face it, RB6-RB15 is a total crapshoot, and most people who call attention to it in the preseason get to be geniuses at the end of the year. I took my chances drafting Cadillac in this vicinity and I'll be happy to tell you how that turned out.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I have Brown at 14, Julius Jones at 26, and Kevin Jones at 28.

please post the 27 RBs who you feel will outperform Kevin Jones this year. TIA.

Why? It is easier to predict that 27 RB's will finish in front of him rather than choosing the specific 27.The idea of the game is avoiding land mines like K Jones.

Kevin Jones was pretty good. 10th in average points/game among RBs.

 

[Reaper]

Joe T and co. nail another one. Looking forward to next years 1st round RB bust thread. It's a must read for those who don't already know.

Am I wrong or was JoeT part of a WCOFF team that drafted Ronnie Brown in the top 7?I think a number of FBG's in WCOFF wound up with Brown... Myself, Aaron, Joe T????Just asking.

 

[dgreen]

Great job predicting the injury, guys.

Didn't they address this? Since he's never carried the load before, they didn't think he would be able to."It's one thing to say LT2 will get hurt next year." It's another thing altogether to say "This guy has never done it before, and I don't think he will this year."

Saying someone can't carry the load is not the same thing as saying he will get hurt.RB has averaged 21 touches per game this year. I'd say he did fine carrying the load.Some random comparisons:FWP = 22 touches per gameRudi = 23Chester = 22T Jones = 21.5Edge = 24Westy = 22.5Tiki = 24

 

[j3r3m3y]

Great job predicting the injury, guys.

Didn't they address this? Since he's never carried the load before, they didn't think he would be able to."It's one thing to say LT2 will get hurt next year." It's another thing altogether to say "This guy has never done it before, and I don't think he will this year."

Saying someone can't carry the load is not the same thing as saying he will get hurt.RB has averaged 21 touches per game this year. I'd say he did fine carrying the load.Some random comparisons:FWP = 22 touches per gameRudi = 23Chester = 22T Jones = 21.5Edge = 24Westy = 22.5Tiki = 24

Exactly, and I would consider a broken hand a fluke injury, and one that will not affect him at all next year.3 keeper league and keeping him is a no-brainer.