Rookie WRs so far in 2012 (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

Caught an article on the slow start for Jags WR Justin Blackmon and noticed this gem:

My link

... Blackmon isn’t alone in rookie receivers running in neutral.

Of the 13 drafted in rounds 1-3, only Tennessee’s Kendall Wright has more than 10 catches, and only three players have reached 100 yards.

I did some checking and the above information is correct as a matter of fact the top receiver from this rookie class isn't a WR, its RB Trent Richardson.Here's the list of the top rookie receivers from the 2012 class:

rk .. name ..... team . pos . REC . YDS . TDs

1 Trent Richardson CLE - RB - 15 - 122 - 1

2 Kendall Wright TEN -- WR -- 14 - 102 - 1

3 Alshon Jeffery CHI --- WR --- 9 - 132 - 1

4 Coby Fleener IND ----- TE --- 8 - 98 --- 0

4 Rod Streater OAK ----- WR --- 8 - 68 --- 1

6 Josh Gordon CLE ------ WR --- 7 - 93 --- 0

6 Damaris Johnson PHI -- WR -- 7 - 107 - 0

8 Dwayne Allen IND ------ TE --- 6 -- 38 - 1

8 Doug Martin TB -------- RB ---- 6 -- 44 -- 0

10 Travis Benjamin CLE -- WR --- 5 -- 82 - 1

10 Stephen Hill NYJ ----- WR --- 5 -- 89 - 2

10 T.Y. Hilton IND ------ WR --- 5 - 128 - 1

13 Justin Blackmon JAC -- WR --- 4 -- 31 -- 0

I didn't realize that the entire WR class was not producing all that much, I thought it was just Blackmon but take a look at the above list.

Who do you feel will eventually break-out from this rookie class?

 

[EBF]

Who do you feel will eventually break-out from this rookie class?

If by eventually you mean this season, I'd probably lean towards no one. Long term I favor Blackmon, Floyd, and Wright. I also have some optimism for Jenkins, Randle, Hill, Graham, and Quick. Jeffery is a solid player as well, but I don't see him rising far above what he is now.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Who do you feel will eventually break-out from this rookie class?

If by eventually you mean this season, I'd probably lean towards no one. Long term I favor Blackmon, Floyd, and Wright.

I also have some optimism for Jenkins, Randle, Hill, Graham, and Quick. Jeffery is a solid player as well, but I don't see him rising far above what he is now.

I like both Justin Blackmon and Kendall Wright but I also like CLE WR Josh Gordon for a long-term wide receiver to break out from this rookie class.

 

[Catbird]

I did some checking and the above information is correct as a matter of fact the top receiver from this rookie class isn't a WR, its RB Trent Richardson.

Here's the list of the top rookie receivers from the 2012 class:

rk .. name ..... team . pos . REC . YDS . TDs

1 Trent Richardson CLE - RB - 15 - 122 - 1

2 Kendall Wright TEN -- WR -- 14 - 102 - 1

3 Alshon Jeffery CHI --- WR --- 9 - 132 - 1

4 Coby Fleener IND ----- TE --- 8 - 98 --- 0

4 Rod Streater OAK ----- WR --- 8 - 68 --- 1

6 Josh Gordon CLE ------ WR --- 7 - 93 --- 0

6 Damaris Johnson PHI -- WR -- 7 - 107 - 0

8 Dwayne Allen IND ------ TE --- 6 -- 38 - 1

8 Doug Martin TB -------- RB ---- 6 -- 44 -- 0

10 Travis Benjamin CLE -- WR --- 5 -- 82 - 1

10 Stephen Hill NYJ ----- WR --- 5 -- 89 - 2

10 T.Y. Hilton IND ------ WR --- 5 - 128 - 1

13 Justin Blackmon JAC -- WR --- 4 -- 31 -- 0

In what view other than from behind the narrowest PPR blinders would a list of guys based on receiving production to date have guys with 38 yards and 1 Td or 44 yards and no TDs (or really even 122 Yards and 1 TD) listed as more productive than guys with 89 Yards and 2 TDs or 128 Yards and 1? Are we blurring our awareness of what is important to the game due to the quirks of a fantasy scoring system? ... but sorry for the hijack. Carry on. The points made are good, although I think its not too surprising for rookie WRs to be slow to adapt and flourish.

 

[Shutout]

Apparently, "2012 is a deep class"=mediocre parity.

It would be nice for someone to run the data on what last year's class was doing at this point (and interesting to compare due to the fact they were locked out while this class was not). That might lend some thoughts as to whether this is just a dud class so far.

 

[valhallan]

Aside from the usual rookie learning curve, I would bet some have been struggling with aggressive secondaries taking advantage of the replacement refs.

 

[noneother]

I think it's deep.. I own Gordon, Streater and Brazill.... But it's deep for dynasty... I really like these three guys over a 3-5 year window....

I would think only kWright, Blackmon, and Jeffrey were expected to do more in 2012....

 

[EBF]

Wright is on pace for 75 catches. If he can mix in a home run or two, he could have a pretty respectable rookie year.

 

[Monsieur Meursault]

And look who their QBs are:

Weeden

Luck

Locker

Gabbert

Sanchez

Cutler

Freeman

Vick

Palmer

Not exactly lighting it up so far this year.

 

[DocHolliday]

I think it's deep.. I own Gordon, Streater and Brazill.... But it's deep for dynasty... I really like these three guys over a 3-5 year window....I would think only kWright, Blackmon, and Jeffrey were expected to do more in 2012....

Streater is not as talented as most of the other names on that list but he should put up decent numbers because he will be on the field due to the ongoing injuries at WR in Oakland. Ford is out for the season. DHB is out for awhile. Moore always seems to be fighting with a hammy.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Apparently, "2012 is a deep class"=mediocre parity. It would be nice for someone to run the data on what last year's class was doing at this point (and interesting to compare due to the fact they were locked out while this class was not). That might lend some thoughts as to whether this is just a dud class so far.

most rookie classes stink after 3 games dont they?I thought Blackmon would do much better

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Apparently, "2012 is a deep class"=mediocre parity. It would be nice for someone to run the data on what last year's class was doing at this point (and interesting to compare due to the fact they were locked out while this class was not). That might lend some thoughts as to whether this is just a dud class so far.

most rookie classes stink after 3 games dont they?I thought Blackmon would do much better

Agreed. I find the lack of success by the WRs so far to not be all that surprising, besides the fact that Blackmon has only 4 catches in 3 games despite being on the field for 87% of Jacksonville's offensive snaps.

 

[MAC_32]

Recent rookie performances have raised the bar. Fact is some guys take 2 years to develop, others take 3 or 4, some are ready right away. Looking like most rookie WR's weren't ready right away. Richardson, Luck, and RG3 though...they're balling, obviously.

Patience.

 

[Rovers]

After putting up two zeroes in weeks 2 and 3 after that huge week one game, I think Hill (who is now nursing a hammy) has a chance of being startable in the second half.

If you read Terftiller's "From the Tape" article, he points out Hill could/should have had two TD's in week 3. One was an EZ drop, the other he had beaten the DB's and pulled up with the hammy while the ball was in the air. In week 2 he dropped another TD. Sounds like Little, doesn't it?

However, Hill was on a college offense that just didn't throw the ball. His problems may just be correctable... and maybe he just can't learn to catch with his hands instead of his nipples. He has the speed to be a very scary deep threat and the size to be an EZ target. He has all the tools, can he develop?

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

it's about opportunities for rookies, looking at target numbers for the rookies:

Player TM Targ T/G REC YD TD Kendall Wright TEN 25 8.3 14 102 1 Top of the group for the teamAlshon Jeffery CHI 14 4.7 9 132 1 tied for 2nd with Bennett behind Marshall (31)Justin Blackmon JAX 15 5 4 31 0 second behind Laurent Robinson (16)Stephen Hill NYJ 15 5 5 89 2 tied for 2nd with Jeff Cumberland behind Holmes (33)Damaris Johnson PHI 15 5 7 107 0 tied with Shady & Maclin behind Desean (29) and Celek (25)Josh Gordon CLE 13 4.3 6 77 0 4th behind Massaquoi (18), Little (15), Trent (15)Rod Streater OAK 15 5 8 68 1 4th behind MaFadden (27), DHB & Moore (18)Travis Benjamin CLE 10 3.3 3 56 1 6th behind Watson (11)T.Y. Hilton IND 9 4.5 5 128 1 buried
Wright, Jeffery, Blackmon and Hill already show good opportunities to be relevant now and are definitely worth owning and even starting as a WR3 or flex. The other guys, not so much yet. I'm starting to like Travis Bejamin, his size hurts but the dude has great speed i noticed last night.

ETA: I will be shocked if Little isn't benched after how many drops last night, so Gordon could surprise.

 

[zamboni]

Tough to compare with Julio Jones, AJ Green and, to a slightly lesser extent, Torrey Smith, as those guys are all supreme talents with great work ethics, solid QBs and good systems for them to show their talents.

Blackmon will probably get there on talent, as long as he keeps his head on straight and Gabbert improves as a passer.

Jeffery is stuck behind a target hog in Marshall, and in a run-based offense, so his upside is probably limited.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Boy do I make some mistakes. I went all in on Hill, Jeffery, Blackmon.

I do think Wright will be doing better and better though.... but I haven't rostered him yet anywhere.

 

[cpd90]

I still think that Blackmon turns it around. He's pulling in an absurdly low % of his targets (e.g., IIRC he pulled in 1 grab in 5 targets last week) and he's just too talented for that to continue. He should be a guy that the QB can just force feed and he'll bring it in if it's even borderline catchable. That hasn't happened so far, but if he starts pulling in a few early targets, the targets will increase and so will his catches. I'm not prepared to abandon my preseason projections 3 games in.

 

[EBF]

My sneaky dynasty pick is TJ Graham. Grabbed him on a bunch of my teams and have been pleasantly surprised.

Small frame, but impressive athlete with some of the best speed/burst in this rookie WR class.

Just caught his first TD last week and has a pretty wide open opportunity to eventually become a key player in the Buffalo passing game.

0:17 in this video.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0ap2000000064772/Bills-vs-Browns-highlights

Also like Blackmon, Floyd, and Jenkins as buy low targets if you can find an owner who has given up on them. There's a reason they were drafted as high as they were.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Tough to compare with Julio Jones, AJ Green and, to a slightly lesser extent, Torrey Smith, as those guys are all supreme talents with great work ethics, solid QBs and good systems for them to show their talents.

Blackmon will probably get there on talent, as long as he keeps his head on straight and Gabbert improves as a passer.

Jeffery is stuck behind a target hog in Marshall, and in a run-based offense, so his upside is probably limited.

That is a good point, placing this group into some sort of context and using last year's class is a good idea.Here are the top-ten recievers from last year, the entire year not just the first three games to use as a comparison of sorts:

1 A.J. Green CIN WR 65-receptions 1,057-yards 7-TDs

2 Greg Little CLE WR 61-receptions 709-yards 2-TDs

3 Julio Jones ATL WR 54-receptions 959-yards 8-TDs

4 Doug Baldwin SEA WR 51-receptions 788-yards 4-TDs

5 Torrey Smith BAL WR 50-receptions 841-yards 7-TDs

6 Roy Helu WAS RB 490-receptions 379-yards 1-TD

7 Titus Young DET WR 48-receptions 607-yards 6-TDs

8 Denarius Moore OAK WR 33-receptions 618-yards 5-TDs

9 Jeremy Kerley NYJ WR 29-receptions 314-yards 1-TD

10 Lance Kendricks STL TE 28-receptions 352-yards 0-TDs

Of the above group, only AJ Green broke out early last year. Julio Jones was hampered with a hamstring injury so he did not break out early. Torrey Smith took time and is only really breaking out now. No one else from this group can truly be considered a break-out WR just yet.

Talent and situation, i.e., quarterback production seem to have helped the top rookie WRs from last year so I would imagine the same would apply to this year's rookie WR crop.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Rookie WRs who do well are the rare exception rather than the norm. Typically, you are looking for a WR to breakout in year 3. Year 1, is about adjusting to the speed of the game, size of the DBs, and having to run precise routes - which many did not have to do in college.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Rookie WRs who do well are the rare exception rather than the norm. Typically, you are looking for a WR to breakout in year 3. Year 1, is about adjusting to the speed of the game, size of the DBs, and having to run precise routes - which many did not have to do in college.

Very true but before the draft a list of names is pretty much agreed upon.After the draft that list might get shuffled.Then after training camp and preseason the list is re-shuffled again.Now, nearly a month into the season we see how the top names have performed and we get another snapshot but we've had all of the pre-draft information, the draft sorting proccess, the training camp grind, the preseason games, and now we finally have gotten the first glimpse of them in real NFL action and we've had a bit of time to watch them develop and also to see the situation they are in.So we have a firmer grasp on their talent and the offensive situations they are in.I like Jacksonville WR Justin Blackmon based on the talent he displayed in the whole draft proccess and especially in the preseason. His QB situation is far from solid but I feel his individual talent will eventually win-out.Tennessee WR Kendall Wright came in as a high pick and done ok in preseason but his QB situation appears brighter than expected and so-far he's done the best of this class.Cleveland WR Josh Gordan didn't go thru the draft proccess and didn't do too much in preseason since he came in so late and he's been held back so-far but his QB situation has shown more promise than expected and he has some natural talent that I feel will eventually rise to the surface.That is why I feel those three will rise above the others of this class. I could easily be wrong but that is my reasoning.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

remember too that blackmon held out, had the DUI distraction so he missed some camp.

He looked really good in pre-season. Lets see if he is more Dez like in the long run

 

[ZWK]

Here's the leaderboard for receiving yards by rookies in their first 3 games for the past decade:

Rk 	Player 	 	Age 	Year 	Lg 	Tm 	G 	W 	L 	T 	Rec 	Yds 	Y/R 	TD1 	Anquan Boldin 	22 	2003 	NFL 	CRD 	3 	1 	2 	0 	23 	378 	16.43 	22 	Roy Williams 	22 	2004 	NFL 	DET 	3 	2 	1 	0 	17 	277 	16.29 	43 	DeSean Jackson 	21 	2008 	NFL 	PHI 	3 	2 	1 	0 	17 	256 	15.06 	04 	Andre Johnson 	22 	2003 	NFL 	HTX 	3 	1 	2 	0 	18 	249 	13.83 	25 	Julio Jones 	22 	2011 	NFL 	ATL 	3 	1 	2 	0 	13 	215 	16.54 	06 	A. Hernandez 	20 	2010 	NFL 	NWE 	3 	2 	1 	0 	13 	211 	16.23 	07 	M. Colston 	23 	2006 	NFL 	NOR 	3 	3 	0 	0 	15 	204 	13.60 	28 	A.J. Green 	23 	2011 	NFL 	CIN 	3 	1 	2 	0 	15 	194 	12.93 	29 	Eddie Royal 	22 	2008 	NFL 	DEN 	3 	3 	0 	0 	18 	194 	10.78 	210 	Calvin Johnson 	21 	2007 	NFL 	DET 	3 	2 	1 	0 	10 	189 	18.90 	211 	Jahvid Best 	21 	2010 	NFL 	DET 	3 	0 	3 	0 	16 	183 	11.44 	112 	James Jones 	23 	2007 	NFL 	GNB 	3 	3 	0 	0 	14 	183 	13.07 	013 	Denarius Moore 	22 	2011 	NFL 	RAI 	3 	2 	1 	0 	9 	180 	20.00 	114 	Greg Jennings 	22 	2006 	NFL 	GNB 	3 	1 	2 	0 	10 	173 	17.30 	215 	Lee Evans 	23 	2004 	NFL 	BUF 	3 	0 	3 	0 	7 	170 	24.29 	016 	John Carlson 	24 	2008 	NFL 	SEA 	3 	1 	2 	0 	12 	168 	14.00 	017 	Kenny Britt 	20 	2009 	NFL 	OTI 	3 	0 	3 	0 	10 	166 	16.60 	018 	B. Edwards 	22 	2005 	NFL 	CLE 	3 	1 	2 	0 	9 	166 	18.44 	119 	Bryant Johnson 	22 	2003 	NFL 	CRD 	3 	1 	2 	0 	14 	161 	11.50 	020 	Jordan Shipley 	24 	2010 	NFL 	CIN 	3 	2 	1 	0 	13 	161 	12.38 	021 	A. Peterson 	22 	2007 	NFL 	MIN 	3 	1 	2 	0 	8 	160 	20.00 	122 	Johnny Knox 	22 	2009 	NFL 	CHI 	3 	2 	1 	0 	9 	159 	17.67 	223 	Dez Bryant 	21 	2010 	NFL 	DAL 	3 	1 	2 	0 	14 	158 	11.29 	024 	Torrey Smith 	22 	2011 		RAV 	3 	2 	1 	0 	5 	152 	30.40 	325 	M. Clayton 	21 	2004 	NFL 	TAM 	3 	0 	3 	0 	15 	149 	9.93 	026 	Mike Wallace 	23 	2009 	NFL 	PIT 	3 	1 	2 	0 	12 	147 	12.25 	027 	L. Fitzgerald 	21 	2004 	NFL 	CRD 	3 	0 	3 	0 	14 	143 	10.21 	028 	D. Thomas 	22 	2010 	NFL 	DEN 	2 	1 	1 	0 	10 	140 	14.00 	129 	Titus Young 	22 	2011 	NFL 	DET 	3 	3 	0 	0 	9 	140 	15.56 	030 	Reggie Bush 	21 	2006 	NFL 	NOR 	3 	3 	0 	0 	19 	139 	7.32 	031 	Mike Williams 	23 	2010 	NFL 	TAM 	3 	2 	1 	0 	12 	139 	11.58 	232 	Louis Murphy 	22 	2009 	NFL 	RAI 	3 	1 	2 	0 	8 	138 	17.25 	133 	Dwayne Bowe 	22 	2007 	NFL 	KAN 	3 	1 	2 	0 	10 	135 	13.50 	234 	Alshon Jeffery 	22 	2012 	NFL 	CHI 	3 	2 	1 	0 	9 	132 	14.67 	135 	Charles Rogers 	22 	2003 	NFL 	DET 	3 	1 	2 	0 	14 	130 	9.29 	236 	Percy Harvin 	21 	2009 	NFL 	MIN 	3 	3 	0 	0 	12 	128 	10.67 	237 	T.Y. Hilton 	22 	2012 	NFL 	CLT 	2 	1 	1 	0 	5 	128 	25.60 	138 	T. Williamson 	22 	2005 	NFL 	MIN 	3 	1 	2 	0 	5 	127 	25.40 	139 	Tony Moeaki 	23 	2010 	NFL 	KAN 	3 	3 	0 	0 	12 	123 	10.25 	240 	Chansi Stuckey 	24 	2008 	NFL 	NYJ 	3 	1 	2 	0 	12 	122 	10.17 	3

Alshon Jeffery leads the way for this draft class, in 34th.

 

[dwashington]

I really like Justin Blackmon as a sleeper play this week, Bengals are down to 2 healthy corners...Terence Toast Newman and Shortman Jones.

Jaguars also get 2 starting olinemen back this week.

Gutsy what the heck flex play.

 

[heropretend]

agree that blackmon could breakout this sunday. bengals also resigned a terrible safety they cut this year b/c the rookie safety sucks.

 

[duaneok66]

Remember a year at this time when people were trying to put Blackmon at or near the level of Green and Jones??

good times.

 

[Nucker101]

I like Alshon Jeffery the most long-term, I think he ends up as a go-to WR in 2 or 3 years. I also like A.J. Jenkins talent a lot, great buy in dynasty leagues right now.

T.J Graham and T.Y Hilton both look like they'll be nice slot WR's, Hilton has Andrew Luck throwing him the ball so he has some nice upside.

 

[loose circuits]

This thread was quite premature because the 2012 rookie class is pretty deep IMO...can get even better if guys like quick, Randle, Jenkins, Graham, etc... Develop.

 

[cstu]

Remember a year at this time when people were trying to put Blackmon at or near the level of Green and Jones??good times.

He outscored both Green and Julio from week 11 on.

 

[loose circuits]

Remember a year at this time when people were trying to put Blackmon at or near the level of Green and Jones??good times.

He outscored both Green and Julio from week 11 on.

Didn't realize that, guess I should be targeting him