Rotoworld Dynasty Rankings QBs (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

I think Big Ben might be slightly high. This was his big breakout year and he still barely topped 3,000 yards.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I think Big Ben might be slightly high. This was his big breakout year and he still barely topped 3,000 yards.

How about those 32 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs in 15 games? Pretty tasty. Five out of 15 games with 3+ TD passes. Very nice.A 104 QB rating last year, the highest career YPA of any QB in the NFL, and the ability to get better with more experience? Yes, please.Just like with pre-2007 Tom Brady, it pays to bet on elite QB talent even if the passing yardage isn't there yet. And make no mistake, Big Ben is every bit the elite talent as an QB in the NFL.

 

[FUBAR]

I think Big Ben might be slightly high. This was his big breakout year and he still barely topped 3,000 yards.

How about those 32 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs in 15 games? Pretty tasty. Five out of 15 games with 3+ TD passes. Very nice.A 104 QB rating last year, the highest career YPA of any QB in the NFL, and the ability to get better with more experience? Yes, please.Just like with pre-2007 Tom Brady, it pays to bet on elite QB talent even if the passing yardage isn't there yet. And make no mistake, Big Ben is every bit the elite talent as an QB in the NFL.

Ben seems to be following Brady's career. We used to compare him to Brady as a game-manager, now many are seeing his true potential. Both are among the most intelligent QBs in the game.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I think Big Ben might be slightly high. This was his big breakout year and he still barely topped 3,000 yards.

How about those 32 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs in 15 games? Pretty tasty. Five out of 15 games with 3+ TD passes. Very nice.A 104 QB rating last year, the highest career YPA of any QB in the NFL, and the ability to get better with more experience? Yes, please.Just like with pre-2007 Tom Brady, it pays to bet on elite QB talent even if the passing yardage isn't there yet. And make no mistake, Big Ben is every bit the elite talent as an QB in the NFL.

Ben seems to be following Brady's career. We used to compare him to Brady as a game-manager, now many are seeing his true potential. Both are among the most intelligent QBs in the game.

True. I think Brady's the smartest QB in the league, and certainly among the top leaders in football, but there's no doubt Ben is more physically talented than Brady. He's bigger, stronger, faster, and has a better arm. You could certainly argue that Big Ben has the best mix of talent & skills of any QB in the league. When he gets another year or two of experience, look out.

 

[TaxMan]

I think Schaub is a bit too low. I think he belongs in the 2nd tier, and I might take him over Bulger/Hasselback.

OK, but why?I might take a lot of the guys in Tier 2 over Bulger/Hasselbeck depending on team/roster specificity.

first is age. Schaub is 4 to 5 years younger than Bulger/Hasselback.second is he has a young STUD in Andre Johnson, a promising TE in Owen Daniels, WR in Jacoby Jones, while Hass has noone, Bulger has an aging Holt.third is Hass/Bulger are what they are, a pretty decent average fantasy QB. Schaub may be the same, but from last year, I think he may have a higher ceiling than those guys. He has the intangibles on being a very good NFL QB, can read the field pretty well, can make a downfield throw unlike Carr, and is pretty accurate as well.

 

[travdogg]

I think Big Ben might be slightly high. This was his big breakout year and he still barely topped 3,000 yards.

How about those 32 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs in 15 games? Pretty tasty. Five out of 15 games with 3+ TD passes. Very nice.A 104 QB rating last year, the highest career YPA of any QB in the NFL, and the ability to get better with more experience? Yes, please.Just like with pre-2007 Tom Brady, it pays to bet on elite QB talent even if the passing yardage isn't there yet. And make no mistake, Big Ben is every bit the elite talent as an QB in the NFL.

Ben seems to be following Brady's career. We used to compare him to Brady as a game-manager, now many are seeing his true potential. Both are among the most intelligent QBs in the game.

True. I think Brady's the smartest QB in the league, and certainly among the top leaders in football, but there's no doubt Ben is more physically talented than Brady. He's bigger, stronger, faster, and has a better arm. You could certainly argue that Big Ben has the best mix of talent & skills of any QB in the league. When he gets another year or two of experience, look out.

If Ben is a top-3 QB then surely Holmes has to be a top-10 WR right?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I think Big Ben might be slightly high. This was his big breakout year and he still barely topped 3,000 yards.

How about those 32 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs in 15 games? Pretty tasty. Five out of 15 games with 3+ TD passes. Very nice.A 104 QB rating last year, the highest career YPA of any QB in the NFL, and the ability to get better with more experience? Yes, please.Just like with pre-2007 Tom Brady, it pays to bet on elite QB talent even if the passing yardage isn't there yet. And make no mistake, Big Ben is every bit the elite talent as an QB in the NFL.

Ben seems to be following Brady's career. We used to compare him to Brady as a game-manager, now many are seeing his true potential. Both are among the most intelligent QBs in the game.

True. I think Brady's the smartest QB in the league, and certainly among the top leaders in football, but there's no doubt Ben is more physically talented than Brady. He's bigger, stronger, faster, and has a better arm. You could certainly argue that Big Ben has the best mix of talent & skills of any QB in the league. When he gets another year or two of experience, look out.

If Ben is a top-3 QB then surely Holmes has to be a top-10 WR right?

Wanna rainbow curve that one by me again?Holmes isn't even the #1 WR in his team's offense. Even with his top flight talent, he's not as complete of a WR as any of the guys ranked ahead of him. What's worrisome to me is that I've noticed a disturbing nonchalance in Holmes when it comes to fighting for the ball in traffic. I'm not sure he has it in him to add reliable possession WR to explosive deep threat to complete the superstar WR picture.

 

[travdogg]

I think Big Ben might be slightly high. This was his big breakout year and he still barely topped 3,000 yards.

How about those 32 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs in 15 games? Pretty tasty. Five out of 15 games with 3+ TD passes. Very nice.A 104 QB rating last year, the highest career YPA of any QB in the NFL, and the ability to get better with more experience? Yes, please.Just like with pre-2007 Tom Brady, it pays to bet on elite QB talent even if the passing yardage isn't there yet. And make no mistake, Big Ben is every bit the elite talent as an QB in the NFL.

Ben seems to be following Brady's career. We used to compare him to Brady as a game-manager, now many are seeing his true potential. Both are among the most intelligent QBs in the game.

True. I think Brady's the smartest QB in the league, and certainly among the top leaders in football, but there's no doubt Ben is more physically talented than Brady. He's bigger, stronger, faster, and has a better arm. You could certainly argue that Big Ben has the best mix of talent & skills of any QB in the league. When he gets another year or two of experience, look out.

If Ben is a top-3 QB then surely Holmes has to be a top-10 WR right?

Wanna rainbow curve that one by me again?Holmes isn't even the #1 WR in his team's offense. Even with his top flight talent, he's not as complete of a WR as any of the guys ranked ahead of him. What's worrisome to me is that I've noticed a disturbing nonchalance in Holmes when it comes to fighting for the ball in traffic. I'm not sure he has it in him to add reliable possession WR to explosive deep threat to complete the superstar WR picture.

I beg to differ there, Holmes isn't as good as Ward at the over the middle receptions(few are) but Holmes is better than most. He made several tough catches over the middle a few that he caught, made a guy or 2 miss and then ran for a score.I think Holmes is the team's WR1(which benefits Ben) he only finished with a few less catches than Ward and he missed equal(or more) time than Ward. He finished with far more yards and more TD's.Per game Holmes' numbers were equal to Marques Colston and ahead of Brandon Marshall.I guess what I'm getting at is how can a QB be top-3 without a top-10 WR? Outside of Brady in 05'(which was a down year for QB's) I can't think of the last time that happened.I really like the rankings(this is one of only 4 things I disagree with between QB's and RB's) but it just seems like this doesn't really add up to me.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

If Ben is a top-3 QB then surely Holmes has to be a top-10 WR right?

Wanna rainbow curve that one by me again?Holmes isn't even the #1 WR in his team's offense. Even with his top flight talent, he's not as complete of a WR as any of the guys ranked ahead of him. What's worrisome to me is that I've noticed a disturbing nonchalance in Holmes when it comes to fighting for the ball in traffic. I'm not sure he has it in him to add reliable possession WR to explosive deep threat to complete the superstar WR picture.

I beg to differ there, Holmes isn't as good as Ward at the over the middle receptions(few are) but Holmes is better than most. He made several tough catches over the middle a few that he caught, made a guy or 2 miss and then ran for a score.I think Holmes is the team's WR1(which benefits Ben) he only finished with a few less catches than Ward and he missed equal(or more) time than Ward. He finished with far more yards and more TD's.

Per game Holmes' numbers were equal to Marques Colston and ahead of Brandon Marshall.

I guess what I'm getting at is how can a QB be top-3 without a top-10 WR? Outside of Brady in 05'(which was a down year for QB's) I can't think of the last time that happened.

I really like the rankings(this is one of only 4 things I disagree with between QB's and RB's) but it just seems like this doesn't really add up to me.

Not sure which numbers you're looking at. Ward & Holmes both played 13 games last season. Ward finished with 71 receptions while Holmes managed 52. That's a considerable difference. Oh, and far more TDs? Holmes had 8 to Ward's 7. I haven't checked your statement that his per game numbers were equal to Colston and ahead of Marshall, but I can tell you that I don't believe it.

Also, I never said Santonio Holmes doesn't go over the middle. In fact, he excels at catching the ball over the middle, making guys miss, and taking it to the house. What I'm saying is that I've noticed Holmes doesn't fight for the ball in traffic. He doesn't use his body well, or go up and get it as well as the top WRs do. It's just an observation, but it's bothersome to me when thinking about his future.

Why can't Ben be a top-3 QB without a Top 10 WR? I don't see what the problem is. He has two very good WRs, both of whom would have ranked much higher in fantasy points had they not missed 3 games apiece. He also has a good tight end. More importantly, Roethlisberger himself is one of the best red zone weapons in football.

There's no shame in not being a Top 10 dynasty WR. Those guys ahead of him are ultra-talented target monsters and better options near the end zone.

 

[travdogg]

If Ben is a top-3 QB then surely Holmes has to be a top-10 WR right?

Wanna rainbow curve that one by me again?Holmes isn't even the #1 WR in his team's offense. Even with his top flight talent, he's not as complete of a WR as any of the guys ranked ahead of him. What's worrisome to me is that I've noticed a disturbing nonchalance in Holmes when it comes to fighting for the ball in traffic. I'm not sure he has it in him to add reliable possession WR to explosive deep threat to complete the superstar WR picture.

I beg to differ there, Holmes isn't as good as Ward at the over the middle receptions(few are) but Holmes is better than most. He made several tough catches over the middle a few that he caught, made a guy or 2 miss and then ran for a score.I think Holmes is the team's WR1(which benefits Ben) he only finished with a few less catches than Ward and he missed equal(or more) time than Ward. He finished with far more yards and more TD's.

Per game Holmes' numbers were equal to Marques Colston and ahead of Brandon Marshall.

I guess what I'm getting at is how can a QB be top-3 without a top-10 WR? Outside of Brady in 05'(which was a down year for QB's) I can't think of the last time that happened.

I really like the rankings(this is one of only 4 things I disagree with between QB's and RB's) but it just seems like this doesn't really add up to me.

Not sure which numbers you're looking at. Ward & Holmes both played 13 games last season. Ward finished with 71 receptions while Holmes managed 52. That's a considerable difference. Oh, and far more TDs? Holmes had 8 to Ward's 7. I haven't checked your statement that his per game numbers were equal to Colston and ahead of Marshall, but I can tell you that I don't believe it.

Also, I never said Santonio Holmes doesn't go over the middle. In fact, he excels at catching the ball over the middle, making guys miss, and taking it to the house. What I'm saying is that I've noticed Holmes doesn't fight for the ball in traffic. He doesn't use his body well, or go up and get it as well as the top WRs do. It's just an observation, but it's bothersome to me when thinking about his future.

Why can't Ben be a top-3 QB without a Top 10 WR? I don't see what the problem is. He has two very good WRs, both of whom would have ranked much higher in fantasy points had they not missed 3 games apiece. He also has a good tight end. More importantly, Roethlisberger himself is one of the best red zone weapons in football.

There's no shame in not being a Top 10 dynasty WR. Those guys ahead of him are ultra-talented target monsters and better options near the end zone.

My bad on the catches, I thought Ward only had 60-some. I said Holmes had far more yards and more TD's(not far more TD's.) I apologize for not making that clear.

As for the traffic thing, I haven't seen that, because they rarely run plays where he's in traffic(because those are Ward's bread and butter) when he has he's looked pretty good. He made a great TD catch in traffic in the Denver game and the Ravens game(the Monday night one.)

Holmes was equal to Colston and greater than Marshall in a standard non-ppr league(I imagine in a ppr league he's far behind them.) That's not something I see changing, especially if Ben is a top-3 QB.

 

[Tau837]

I still think Rivers is way too low. Only 2 years ago he was the #7 scoring QB in my main dynasty league. Last year he got off to a bad start but so did the entire Chargers O. I blame this on the new system brought in by Norv Turner. Rivers was the #8 QB in my main league for the last 6 weeks of the season and this was getting pulled early in alot of games as SD destroyed teams. Chambers being brought in was huge also. He was also very big in the playoffs and this was on that knee injury that FL wanted to talk about as a worry. He has already played on the knee with the injury and I dont think it was nearly as severe as McNabb. Culpepper and Palmer who could not play through it. The cast for SD is just too good not to be a successful fantasy QB. I put him ahead of many on the list. Who has Chambers, Jackson, Gates and LT to keep the pressure off and a great outlet plus a not bad OL and a great D to play with. How is Travis henry, Marshall and Sheffler better than this. SD's 3rd and 4th WR are better than Kerry Colbert and you have Cutler way higher. I just think your putting too much stock in an injury and forgetting about learning a new system and what Chambers did for this O to improve it. I would be happy to wait to get Rivers as my #1 QB in a fantasy league.

You raise some good points: He did have a good '06. Chambers addition was much bigger than most believed it would be(especially the stats guys who have always bashed Chambers for a nebulous stat like catch %). Rivers was brilliant in the playoffs on a bum knee. The cast is very good. Here's where I'm coming from: - His ACL was completely torn. If he was healthy, I would definitely have him higher. But as we've seen with other QBs recently---Palmer, McNabb, Culpepper---they are a shadow of their former selves in coming back from surgery. All of them were better QBs than Rivers at the time, and they all struggled to play well afterwards. My guess is his startable value for the '08 season is very low. You see it differently, but to my mind that's not very realistic.- So if he's not going to be startable in '08, is he more valuable than other guys with promising futures who do figure to be startable? - What's his future beyond next season? I covered Rivers quite a few times during the season, and I saw an inconsistent QB with happy feet and a lack of arm strength. If there's one alarming sign in a young QB, it's a guy who is so afraid to get hit that he starts backing away at the first sign of pressure. I don't like scared QBs who rattle easily. Phil Rivers played like that guy for a decent portion of '07. To be sure, I also saw him stand in and make some of the most beautiful passes I've ever seen in the playoffs while gutting it out on a bum knee. Which is the real Phil Rivers? The David Carr happy feet clone who shies away from pressure? The smack-talker who wolfed it up against Indy fans and Jay Cutler? The pure, gutsy passer from the playoffs? I'm not sure, but it would be a lot easier for me to look on the bright side if I thought the ACL would not hold him back for at least a year.- What do you make of an accurate QB with great weapons who played magnificently in the playoffs but had wilted against pressure consistently up to that point in his career, had been rattled against good defenses while putting up numbers against poor defenses, possesses below average arm strength, and has a habit of going overboard on smacktalking . . . almost to the point that you feel like he's trying to compensate for something? He's a tough guy to rank. Like I said, there's something here to like, but there's also a lot not to like. He could go either way.

First off, I appreciate the rankings and all the effort that you put into them.That said, I disagree with some of this. (No surprise, since I have always been one of the biggest Rivers supporters around here.)First, on the ACL injury. You cite 3 QBs as having struggled to come back from injury.1. McNabb. Different kind of QB, with mobility being a bigger part of his game. And wasn't 2007 his season returning from the ACL? He threw for 3324/19 in 14 games. Those numbers are pretty good for McNabb. His QB rating was 89.9, the third highest in his career. And he ran 50 times for 4.7 ypc. All in all, not bad for struggling.2. Culpepper. Different kind of QB, with mobility being a bigger part of his game. And wasn't 2006 his season returning from the ACL? He was on a new team, which didn't help. And, really, how much of his falloff was due to being without Moss? In 2005, before his injury, he posted a QB rating of 72, in his first season without Moss. In 2006, his QB rating was actually slightly better, at 77, though he attempted only 134 passes.3. Palmer. More like Rivers, lacking mobility. Wasn't 2006 his season returning from the ACL? He put up 4035/28, compared to 3836/32 the previous season. Isn't it possible that 2005 was just a bit of a career year? I'm not sure why you'd say he struggled.My opinion on the injury is that he will be affected some early and get better throughout the season. Rivers is very tough, as seen in the playoff game. In college, he set an NCAA record in starting 51 of 51 games, in some cases with injuries that would have sidelined other guys. He'll gut it out.On the happy feet. You said you covered the Chargers some last season, so I'm sure you observed how poorly the OL played. I watched several of their games, and I would agree he occasionally rushed passes, but I think you are overstating it. I'd attribute most of it to the poor OL play, which often put him under constant pressure. I have a hard time looking at all the quality assessments you make and reconciling that with you comparing Rivers to David Carr. On the weak arm. I agree he doesn't have a strong arm, but exactly what do you mean by weak here? Are you saying there are throws you think he can't make? Or that he gets the ball there late? I would characterize his arm as average, and he makes up for that with good touch and accuracy. When I think of a weak arm, I think of Pennington.On the smack talking, there has been a lot posted about it in the Chargers threads here. It is vastly overblown. And, by the way, there are numerous accounts that confirm he didn't say anything to Cutler. Now, I'm not saying he is an upper tier fantasy QB. But to rank him 9 spots below Cutler, 4 spots below Schaub, below Leinart period, seems off to me. I think this year he'll be top 15, pretty close to your ranking, since I agree he may have some lingering injury effects. But I think in subsequent years, he will prove to be a consistent top 10-12 QB... so I'd probably have him around 12 in a current dynasty ranking.The real Rivers is the guy from last year's playoffs IMO.

 

[FUBAR]

If Ben is a top-3 QB then surely Holmes has to be a top-10 WR right?

Wanna rainbow curve that one by me again?Holmes isn't even the #1 WR in his team's offense. Even with his top flight talent, he's not as complete of a WR as any of the guys ranked ahead of him. What's worrisome to me is that I've noticed a disturbing nonchalance in Holmes when it comes to fighting for the ball in traffic. I'm not sure he has it in him to add reliable possession WR to explosive deep threat to complete the superstar WR picture.

I beg to differ there, Holmes isn't as good as Ward at the over the middle receptions(few are) but Holmes is better than most. He made several tough catches over the middle a few that he caught, made a guy or 2 miss and then ran for a score.I think Holmes is the team's WR1(which benefits Ben) he only finished with a few less catches than Ward and he missed equal(or more) time than Ward. He finished with far more yards and more TD's.

Per game Holmes' numbers were equal to Marques Colston and ahead of Brandon Marshall.

I guess what I'm getting at is how can a QB be top-3 without a top-10 WR? Outside of Brady in 05'(which was a down year for QB's) I can't think of the last time that happened.

I really like the rankings(this is one of only 4 things I disagree with between QB's and RB's) but it just seems like this doesn't really add up to me.

Not sure which numbers you're looking at. Ward & Holmes both played 13 games last season. Ward finished with 71 receptions while Holmes managed 52. That's a considerable difference. Oh, and far more TDs? Holmes had 8 to Ward's 7. I haven't checked your statement that his per game numbers were equal to Colston and ahead of Marshall, but I can tell you that I don't believe it.

Also, I never said Santonio Holmes doesn't go over the middle. In fact, he excels at catching the ball over the middle, making guys miss, and taking it to the house. What I'm saying is that I've noticed Holmes doesn't fight for the ball in traffic. He doesn't use his body well, or go up and get it as well as the top WRs do. It's just an observation, but it's bothersome to me when thinking about his future.

Why can't Ben be a top-3 QB without a Top 10 WR? I don't see what the problem is. He has two very good WRs, both of whom would have ranked much higher in fantasy points had they not missed 3 games apiece. He also has a good tight end. More importantly, Roethlisberger himself is one of the best red zone weapons in football.

There's no shame in not being a Top 10 dynasty WR. Those guys ahead of him are ultra-talented target monsters and better options near the end zone.

My bad on the catches, I thought Ward only had 60-some. I said Holmes had far more yards and more TD's(not far more TD's.) I apologize for not making that clear.

As for the traffic thing, I haven't seen that, because they rarely run plays where he's in traffic(because those are Ward's bread and butter) when he has he's looked pretty good. He made a great TD catch in traffic in the Denver game and the Ravens game(the Monday night one.)

Holmes was equal to Colston and greater than Marshall in a standard non-ppr league(I imagine in a ppr league he's far behind them.) That's not something I see changing, especially if Ben is a top-3 QB.

With a 18.1 ypr and 10.1 ypr, along with what I saw last year, Holmes and Ward make a fantastic duo. They compliment themselves nicely and give the Steelers exactly the type of duo I like. FWIW, in my leagues, Ben was a top 5 QB last year while Ward and Holmes both ranked in the 20's (weekly average, both in late teens-25). Not too hard to see how that could lead to Ben being a top 3 and neither WR being top 10.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

First off, I appreciate the rankings and all the effort that you put into them.

That said, I disagree with some of this. (No surprise, since I have always been one of the biggest Rivers supporters around here.)

First, on the ACL injury. You cite 3 QBs as having struggled to come back from injury.

1. McNabb. Different kind of QB, with mobility being a bigger part of his game. And wasn't 2007 his season returning from the ACL? He threw for 3324/19 in 14 games. Those numbers are pretty good for McNabb. His QB rating was 89.9, the third highest in his career. And he ran 50 times for 4.7 ypc. All in all, not bad for struggling.

2. Culpepper. Different kind of QB, with mobility being a bigger part of his game. And wasn't 2006 his season returning from the ACL? He was on a new team, which didn't help. And, really, how much of his falloff was due to being without Moss? In 2005, before his injury, he posted a QB rating of 72, in his first season without Moss. In 2006, his QB rating was actually slightly better, at 77, though he attempted only 134 passes.

3. Palmer. More like Rivers, lacking mobility. Wasn't 2006 his season returning from the ACL? He put up 4035/28, compared to 3836/32 the previous season. Isn't it possible that 2005 was just a bit of a career year? I'm not sure why you'd say he struggled.

My opinion on the injury is that he will be affected some early and get better throughout the season. Rivers is very tough, as seen in the playoff game. In college, he set an NCAA record in starting 51 of 51 games, in some cases with injuries that would have sidelined other guys. He'll gut it out.

On the happy feet. You said you covered the Chargers some last season, so I'm sure you observed how poorly the OL played. I watched several of their games, and I would agree he occasionally rushed passes, but I think you are overstating it. I'd attribute most of it to the poor OL play, which often put him under constant pressure. I have a hard time looking at all the quality assessments you make and reconciling that with you comparing Rivers to David Carr.

On the weak arm. I agree he doesn't have a strong arm, but exactly what do you mean by weak here? Are you saying there are throws you think he can't make? Or that he gets the ball there late? I would characterize his arm as average, and he makes up for that with good touch and accuracy. When I think of a weak arm, I think of Pennington.

On the smack talking, there has been a lot posted about it in the Chargers threads here. It is vastly overblown. And, by the way, there are numerous accounts that confirm he didn't say anything to Cutler.

Now, I'm not saying he is an upper tier fantasy QB. But to rank him 9 spots below Cutler, 4 spots below Schaub, below Leinart period, seems off to me. I think this year he'll be top 15, pretty close to your ranking, since I agree he may have some lingering injury effects. But I think in subsequent years, he will prove to be a consistent top 10-12 QB... so I'd probably have him around 12 in a current dynasty ranking.

The real Rivers is the guy from last year's playoffs IMO.

Well said.You can make the argument that Palmer & McNabb did not struggle in their return from ACL injuries, but none of that group of 3 has been the same QB since the injury. Now I expect McNabb to bounce back a year later, and it's reasonable to expect Palmer to pick up his performance in '08, but I don't know anybody who has seen the two of them play since their injuries who believes they have played as well as they did pre-injury. That doesn't mean it won't happen this year, but now we're two years removed from McNabb's surgery and three years from Palmer's surgery.

Both of those guys have been Top-3 QBs in the past, so it was definitely worth holding out hope that they would return to form to give you an advantage. I don't think Rivers has ever been an advantage in fantasy leagues. For the most part, he's been an average fantasy starter. Is that worth the hit he's going to take in '08?

You don't believe he'll struggle in his return from injury. I don't see how we will not. Like I said, I think reasonable minds can differ on this.

I don't think I'm overstating the happy feet at all. In every regular season game I've seen Philip Rivers play, and again this is going back to the '06 season, he has backed away from defensive pressure. You want to blame that on the O-Line, but I saw a QB who had happy feet at the slightest pressure. That's not the O-Line. Again, he played so well in the playoff that you have to wonder which one is the real Philip Rivers. But I have no qualms standing by this observation about Rivers. This is a quote from Nov. of last year in the Dynasty Rankings thread:

Yeah, I've noticed this about Rivers too...going back to last season. He has a little Grossman/Eli in him when it comes to dealing with pressure. Not only does he shy away from pressure, he sometimes looks like he wants to fall into the fetal position complete with thumb sucking. It's this I worry about much more than the arm strength. I was willing to give him space to grow as a first-time starter last season, especially when it seemed like it only happened against the really good defenses. But it's a clear pattern now, and he's going to have to turn it around soon.

I've upgraded him at times this year because he has excellent redzone receivers with Gates, Chambers, and Jackson. They're all way above average weapons near the endzone, and you had to figure Tomlinson wasn't going to rush for 30 TDs again. A guy coming off a 90+ QB rating in his first year with nice redzone weapons makes for a nice fantasy QB. But if he's going to crumble under pressure, all bets are off...

I don't like Cutler's weapons quite as much as Rivers', but I haven't seen Cutler back down from competing on the field....and he definitely has a stronger arm. For those reasons, I think he has a better NFL and fantasy future than Rivers.

Sometimes we let things slide in the off-season because it's no longer fresh in the mind and the last impression of the season is the one that sticks. I just don't think the concerns about Rivers dealing with pressure have been alleviated yet. Re: the arm strength. I think there are some throws he struggles to make, specifically the sideline out. But if he can channel the Colts playoff game consistently, that won't be a problem. And truth be told, I think arm strength is much less of a concern with him than ducking from pressure.

Re: smack talking. I agree that some have made too much of it, but I'm not ready to brush it off as nothing. First of all, he was wolfing at Culter. Anyone who saw the game could see that. Even if he was just yelling things about his own team, there's no doubt he was looking directly at Culter and trying to punk him out. I find the behavior bizarre, and it seems like over-compensation to me.

I think he's too close to the that whole crowd of QBs to sacrifice '08 on the assumption that he'll come back and make an impact down the road. I'm just not sold on him.

 

[Tau837]

Good response. I was certainly overly high on Rivers last year, and I have tempered my expectations for this year due to the injury - like I said, top 15. But because I think he'll be top 10-12 consistently after that, I'd rank him higher in dynasty.

I'd be pretty interested to know what it is you see in Leinart that causes you to rank him above Rivers. From an NFL standpoint, Rivers has been largely successful and Leinart has been largely a bust so far. From a fantasy standpoint, Rivers has been a bit disappointing, but Leinart much moreso. I see you criticize Rivers for happy feet and arm strength, but at least he has finished as a top 15 fantasy QB twice. And look at their QB ratings... not close. And Rivers hasn't missed a game, even with the ACL.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'd be pretty interested to know what it is you see in Leinart that causes you to rank him above Rivers. From an NFL standpoint, Rivers has been largely successful and Leinart has been largely a bust so far. From a fantasy standpoint, Rivers has been a bit disappointing, but Leinart much moreso. I see you criticize Rivers for happy feet and arm strength, but at least he has finished as a top 15 fantasy QB twice. And look at their QB ratings... not close. And Rivers hasn't missed a game, even with the ACL.

Good question. It's mostly personal preference though I would definitely rank Rivers higher if not for the ACL surgery. I like Leinart's upside as a fantasy QB in that offense with Fitzgerald and Boldin. I think he's a classic high risk/high reward dynasty buy low right now. I haven't seen Leinart in the pros nearly as much as I've seen Rivers, but his impressive performance against the dominant Bears defense of early '06 sticks out in my mind. I've seen him play well, and I haven't seen him back down from pressure. On top of that, I had him as a great prospect coming into the league because of his uniquely outstanding college career. When I read Football Outsiders 2006 manual (with David Lewin's QB system) calling Leinart the most NFL-prepared QB to come out of college since Peyton Manning, it got my attention. I haven't seen anything in his NFL career that would lead to believe he's gotten his chance and failed. I think we're still in the evaluation process with him, and he could easily become an impact player this season.I'll admit that I'm a sucker for high risk players if I believe they can put it all together soon and become difference makers. I think Leinart has that potential in '08. "Mama always told me not to look into the eyes of the sun. But, Mama, that's where the fun is."