PSILOCYBIN
Footballguy
Likely to be available in late 2nd rd and assuming Smith, Holt, CJ, Marvin, Wayne are gone...which of these two would be your preference and why?
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Roy Williams or Larry Fitz? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter PSILOCYBIN
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Aggieelmore
Footballguy
Roy Williams, I think AZ is going to run the ball more and Detroit has T. Bell as their lead back and Martz as their OC
I had the same choice at 2.12-3.1 in a recent draft & went with Fitz. I consider Fitz the TD guy in Arizona, & was worried that Johnson could become that guy in Detroit.
Peak
Footballguy
vichawkfan
Footballguy
had the same choice 2 weeks ago in the 3rd round. Took Fitz and happy for it. He IS the TD reception option in ARZ. Everything out of camp is that he's embraced the new offense and dedicated himself to being a better player this year. Roy's value is tied to close to Kitna, but more importantly that offensive offensive line. With Roy, Calvin, Furrey, MacDonald - Kitna would need to throw close to 30TD's to get Roy around 10.
Had same decision between these 2 Saturday. I think it's pretty even I went with Fitz and came back later with Calvin Johnson in the 6th.
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THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
NICE!!
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
I had them both in a keep three and had to chose between one the other day. It was a very hard decision, but I went with Fitz based solely on the fact that I feel he is WR1 in a 1 and 1A situation whereas in the next year or so Williams may fall to 1A in his situation...again, a very hard decision.
kneeunthaface
Footballguy
what is Larry Fitzgerald's ADP up to this point?
ShaqAttaq
Morally Ambiguous
just took him at 3.02 tonight, after taking TO at 2.11
DerwoodG
Footballguy
Are Holt or Wayne in the mix too? But that's a totally different thread, sorry.Regarding Williams, do you really think the Detroit passing game isn't about to become the next "Greatest Show on Turf" after another year under Martz? I know he's not the sexy pick, but with CJ on the other side, how can you not expect RW to be even better this year? With a new coaching staff in AZ, I have no idea what they will look like. I'll go with the WR in an improving and stable organization any day. OK, stable might be the wrong word, but at least the coaching staff isn't new.
Tillmanisahero
Footballguy
Roy...better all around WR and plays in a throw first, second and third offense. Fitz IMHO is way over-rated.
you guys are crazy crazy crazy , do you realize just how good Fitz is?? Thre is no reason to think he shouldn't be top 5 again this year now that the injury is over.. he picking up very very well in the last 5 games last year. Top 3 at wr this year. Write it down.
jurb26
Footballguy
I think it's the other way around. Too many people around here don't seem to realize how good ROY is. My lord we have almost the whole FBG population ready to crown Calvin Johnson (ROOKIE) better than him without even playing a single down of regular season football. I know we have to come to expect people to suffer from short term memory loss this time of year, but cripes the guy was supposedly a freak of nature just like Calvin and Fitz coming out of college 3 years ago. He has done nothing but play extremely well all 3 years in the league. He is big, fast, agile, sure handed, explosive and knows how to win jump ball battles as well as fight for catches in traffic. He has come a long way in running routes the past 2 years on top of it. The shortsightedness is no doubt the other way around if you ask me.
The Kansas Comet
Footballguy
Roy - Martz will have them throwing at least 550 times this season (if not 600) and for the first time, he'll have a teammate who will draw coverage away from him. Last year Roy saw plenty of extra attention from opposing defenses. It won't be the case this year with Johnson on the other side. Plus, Arizona wants to run a lot more than they have historically. I like Fitz a lot, but Roy's a stud in a better situation.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I don't think it's even very close...Roy Williams.
strong
Footballguy
I think it's a close call...With 1 pt per 10 yds, Roy.With 1 pt per 20 yds, Fitz.
Also, I heavily disagree with this assessment since it's unlikely that Calvin, Furrey, McDonald et al. score 20 TDs amongst them. I think 12-15 is more likely and if Kitna throws 23-25, Roy should see 7-9 of those...
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I'm not sure why people are throwing Fitz' scoring and red zone prowess out in this particular debate...
Career TD%...
*** Larry Fitzgerald = 10.4% (24 TDs in 230 recs)
*** Roy Williams = 12.7% (23 TDs in 181 recs)
Career Red Zone TDs...
*** Larry Fitz = 15 TDs in 3 seasons
*** Roy Williams = 13 TDs in 3 seasons
Now, factor in the Fitz' is almost assuredly going to see fewer targets as the team gains more offensive balance, whereas Roy will continue to be on one of the most pass happy teams, I just don't understand why anyone thinks Fitz is more likely to score more TDs.
Career TD%...
*** Larry Fitzgerald = 10.4% (24 TDs in 230 recs)
*** Roy Williams = 12.7% (23 TDs in 181 recs)
Career Red Zone TDs...
*** Larry Fitz = 15 TDs in 3 seasons
*** Roy Williams = 13 TDs in 3 seasons
Now, factor in the Fitz' is almost assuredly going to see fewer targets as the team gains more offensive balance, whereas Roy will continue to be on one of the most pass happy teams, I just don't understand why anyone thinks Fitz is more likely to score more TDs.
Irish
Footballguy
Roy Williams is dealing with hamstring issues THIS pre season.
Irish
Footballguy
Someone might prefer one over the other and a good argument can be made for either one, but they are neck and neck.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Again, I think (and have articulated in great detail elsewhere) that Fitzgerald is going to be hard pressed to make his way into the top 10 in the Cardinals new offensive system, just a byproduct of targets. Meanwhile I have a hard time seeing how Roy Williams will fall out of the top 10 if he stays healthy. There's a HUGE difference between WR7 and WR12 on draft day IMHO.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Roy Williams has been dealing with hamstring problems since day 1. Thats just how it goes with him. I still think he is the better pick.
strong
Footballguy
Yeah, Fitz is good but the year he finished number 2 was also the year Boldin finished number 8. I don't think we ever see that type of combined production between the two of them again especially with a new coaching staff. Unless the Arizona offense becomes as good as the Indianapolis offense... which is doubtful considering the talent gap between Peyton and Leinart. Fitz and Boldin are both supremely talented and arguably the two most talented receivers on a single team but they will continue to cancel each other out a bit and both will probably finish on the fringe of the top 10 for quite a while... barring the occasional fluke 14+ td season from either guy...
Irish
Footballguy
Did Woody Hayes come back to life and become the Cardinals HC? Whisenhunt preaches offensive balance and it is not like the Cardinals are the 2004-2005 Steelers and will just sit on leads and pound the ball to run out the clock. I love Roy Williams, but I am worried about Kitna's health for the entire season. He was sacked almost 70 times last yr and Williams numbers will drop off dramatically if Kitna is out, whereas Arizona has Warner to fall back on and Fitz won't miss a beat IMHO. They are so close and that was the deciding factor for me in having Fitz just one spot ahead of Williams. I also factored in that Detroit has more games vs top defenses. Detroit plays Philly, Chicago x 2, Wash, Denver and San Diego. Arizona plays Balt, Wash and Pitt.
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Challenge Everything
Footballguy
Roy didn't get the moniker "Legend" for being average; he's without a doubt one of the most talented WR in the league
Yitbos69
Footballguy
Fixed
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Ken Whisenhunt is on record saying he would love to have the Cards run 550 times this season. You and I both know that's a pipe dream, but it does speak to the fact that the Cards are going to run much more than last year's 419 times. Each incremental rushing attempt is not a 1 for 1 decrease in the team's passing attempts, but they are (obviously) correlated. I think the Cards passing attempts fall from 546 (7th in the NFL) to the 480-510 range; which makes it very difficult to project Fitz and/or Boldin to push for 90+ receptions. Meanwhile Mike Martz' teams have been in the top 3 for passing attempts every season he's been a play caller.Last year, Detroit threw the ball 597 times and their rushing attack is LESS impactful entering 2007. It would be one thing if Fitz had a history of being a better per touch player than Roy, but that's simply not true either. Even if they were in line for equivalent targets, i would (slightly) prefer Williams, but when you overlay the disconnect between Fitz' 2007 targets versus his prior annualized targets, I think this is a much simpler decision than you're making it out to be. But that's why fantasy football is greatDid Woody Hayes come back to life and become the Cardinals HC? Whisenhunt preaches offensive balance and it is not like the Cardinals are the 2004-2005 Steelers and will just sit on leads and pound the ball to run out the clock. I love Roy Williams, but I am worried about Kitna's health for the entire season. He was sacked almost 70 times last yr and Williams numbers will drop off dramatically if Kitna is out, whereas Arizona has Warner to fall back on and Fitz won't miss a beat IMHO. They are so close and that was the deciding factor for me in having Fitz just one spot ahead of Williams.Again, I think (and have articulated in great detail elsewhere) that Fitzgerald is going to be hard pressed to make his way into the top 10 in the Cardinals new offensive system, just a byproduct of targets. Meanwhile I have a hard time seeing how Roy Williams will fall out of the top 10 if he stays healthy. There's a HUGE difference between WR7 and WR12 on draft day IMHO.Someone might prefer one over the other and a good argument can be made for either one, but they are neck and neck.
...if we all agreed on every pick, there would be no reason for live drafts.
Irish
Footballguy
I do think the Cardinals plan is to run the ball more than in yrs past, but to win ball games coaches learn to play to their teams strengths and the Cardinals strength is Fitz and Boldin. I think the running game will also open up the play action passing game. With out a doubt the Lions will throw more, but Williams has to share with CJ, Furrey and MacDonald. A lack of a solid running game with also hurt the passing game, because teams do not have to respect the run. Also more pass attempts puts Kitna at a huge risk for injury behind that OL. I try not to forecast my projections based on possible injuries, but when two players are so close in my rankings I do factor it in a bit. I agree that different opinions on players and their situations does make drafting a heck of a lot more fun.Ken Whisenhunt is on record saying he would love to have the Cards run 550 times this season. You and I both know that's a pipe dream, but it does speak to the fact that the Cards are going to run much more than last year's 419 times. Each incremental rushing attempt is not a 1 for 1 decrease in the team's passing attempts, but they are (obviously) correlated. I think the Cards passing attempts fall from 546 (7th in the NFL) to the 480-510 range; which makes it very difficult to project Fitz and/or Boldin to push for 90+ receptions. Meanwhile Mike Martz' teams have been in the top 3 for passing attempts every season he's been a play caller.Last year, Detroit threw the ball 597 times and their rushing attack is LESS impactful entering 2007. It would be one thing if Fitz had a history of being a better per touch player than Roy, but that's simply not true either. Even if they were in line for equivalent targets, i would (slightly) prefer Williams, but when you overlay the disconnect between Fitz' 2007 targets versus his prior annualized targets, I think this is a much simpler decision than you're making it out to be. But that's why fantasy football is greatDid Woody Hayes come back to life and become the Cardinals HC? Whisenhunt preaches offensive balance and it is not like the Cardinals are the 2004-2005 Steelers and will just sit on leads and pound the ball to run out the clock. I love Roy Williams, but I am worried about Kitna's health for the entire season. He was sacked almost 70 times last yr and Williams numbers will drop off dramatically if Kitna is out, whereas Arizona has Warner to fall back on and Fitz won't miss a beat IMHO. They are so close and that was the deciding factor for me in having Fitz just one spot ahead of Williams.Again, I think (and have articulated in great detail elsewhere) that Fitzgerald is going to be hard pressed to make his way into the top 10 in the Cardinals new offensive system, just a byproduct of targets. Meanwhile I have a hard time seeing how Roy Williams will fall out of the top 10 if he stays healthy. There's a HUGE difference between WR7 and WR12 on draft day IMHO.Someone might prefer one over the other and a good argument can be made for either one, but they are neck and neck.
...if we all agreed on every pick, there would be no reason for live drafts.
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They can say they will run the ball, but when your $$RB can only avg 3.5ypc and you lose your best olineman to Dallas you're looking to get shutout a bunch. Whisenhunt is a smart guy they will throw the ball. They have a talented young qb 3 solid wr's and a past his prime rb. Even if Whisenhunt is stubborn and tries to run first and run second. They will be behind in a lot of games and be forced to air it out in the second half. Don't confuse balance with abondaning where their strengths lie. Also, go to the stats section and look at James goal line production vs. Fitz goal line targets. Good stuff!!! The difference between Roy and Fitz is very small from a projection stand point and I'm sure Fitz will post another solid year.I do think the Cardinals plan is to run the ball more than in yrs past, but to win ball games coaches learn to play to their teams strengths and the Cardinals strength is Fitz and Boldin. I think the running game will also open up the play action passing. game. With out a doubt the Lions will throw more, but Williams has to share with CJ, Furrey and MacDonald. A lack of a solid running game with also hurt the passing game, because teams do not have to respect the run. Also more pass attempts puts Kitna at a huge risk for injury behind that OL. I try not to forecast my projections based on possible injuries, but when two players are so close in my rankings I do factor it in a bit. I agree that different opinions on players and their situations does make drafting a heck of a lot more fun.Ken Whisenhunt is on record saying he would love to have the Cards run 550 times this season. You and I both know that's a pipe dream, but it does speak to the fact that the Cards are going to run much more than last year's 419 times. Each incremental rushing attempt is not a 1 for 1 decrease in the team's passing attempts, but they are (obviously) correlated. I think the Cards passing attempts fall from 546 (7th in the NFL) to the 480-510 range; which makes it very difficult to project Fitz and/or Boldin to push for 90+ receptions. Meanwhile Mike Martz' teams have been in the top 3 for passing attempts every season he's been a play caller.Last year, Detroit threw the ball 597 times and their rushing attack is LESS impactful entering 2007. It would be one thing if Fitz had a history of being a better per touch player than Roy, but that's simply not true either. Even if they were in line for equivalent targets, i would (slightly) prefer Williams, but when you overlay the disconnect between Fitz' 2007 targets versus his prior annualized targets, I think this is a much simpler decision than you're making it out to be. But that's why fantasy football is greatDid Woody Hayes come back to life and become the Cardinals HC? Whisenhunt preaches offensive balance and it is not like the Cardinals are the 2004-2005 Steelers and will just sit on leads and pound the ball to run out the clock. I love Roy Williams, but I am worried about Kitna's health for the entire season. He was sacked almost 70 times last yr and Williams numbers will drop off dramatically if Kitna is out, whereas Arizona has Warner to fall back on and Fitz won't miss a beat IMHO. They are so close and that was the deciding factor for me in having Fitz just one spot ahead of Williams.Again, I think (and have articulated in great detail elsewhere) that Fitzgerald is going to be hard pressed to make his way into the top 10 in the Cardinals new offensive system, just a byproduct of targets. Meanwhile I have a hard time seeing how Roy Williams will fall out of the top 10 if he stays healthy. There's a HUGE difference between WR7 and WR12 on draft day IMHO.Someone might prefer one over the other and a good argument can be made for either one, but they are neck and neck.
...if we all agreed on every pick, there would be no reason for live drafts.
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