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Rushing vs Passing this year (1 Viewer)

Deamon

Footballguy
Obviously the league has been evolving to a more pass heavy play selection over the years, but this year seems to be a massive jump.  The new rule changes haven't been a major factor in the regular season either so not sure the reason.  Maybe things will even out as the weather gets worse?

- This year we have EIGHT teams that are throwing more than 64% of snaps.  Last year over the season there were ZERO. 

- 28% of teams so far this week have ran the ball under 15 times. 

- Of the 66 RB's that got a rushing attempt this week, only 6 ran the ball over 20 times. 

- About half of the starting QB's this week threw the ball over 40 times.  4 of them over 50 attempts.


Any of the stat guys around here know where to find % of passing plays vs rushing plays over the years and how much it has jumped each year?  Can't seem to find that. 
 

 

tackle for loss

Footballguy
Its a passing league. Adding in the Bears were up a ton and didnt even use their big back to kill clock and teams are afraid to run it, the Browns could have won the game outright if they could get just one yard with their big back but they decided to punt and then lose. If you are a coach and you dont have confidence in your team to get one yard, you are not really good at your job. Look back to Carroll passing in the SB to lose it from the 1 yard line when they had Lynch? Coaches have arrogance too.

 

Tool

Footballguy
The jump has been massive - just looking at the over/under lines each week can see a big difference. Admittedly I haven't watched much this year so not sure of the reason but am interested to hear what others say. I had kind of assumed it was the new rule changes.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
The jump has been massive - just looking at the over/under lines each week can see a big difference. Admittedly I haven't watched much this year so not sure of the reason but am interested to hear what others say. I had kind of assumed it was the new rule changes.
Don't even think it has much to do with the rules.  They haven't called the lowering the helmet rule much at all, nor have there been that many "catch rule" catches that were called a catch this year that wouldn't have been last year.  Just seems like teams are all about airing it out.  50 pass attempts a game used to be rare... now it's fairly normal.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Any of the stat guys around here know where to find % of passing plays vs rushing plays over the years and how much it has jumped each year?  Can't seem to find that. 
 
Here are the annual percentage of recorded passing plays from each season since the league merger in 1970. 2018 is through last night's PIT/BAL game. I believe that only plays that resulted in an actual pass or a rushing attempt are included. So scrambles would go down as a running play. Plays that resulted in a penalty are not included. Not sure where plays ending in a sack get accounted for.

2018 - 56.67%
2017 - 53.91
2016 - 55.89
2015 - 55.49
2014 - 54.54
2013 - 54.46
2012 - 54.10
2011 - 53.46
2010 - 53.44
2009 - 52.87
2008 - 52.16
2007 - 53.05
2006 - 51.22
2005 - 51.41
2004 - 51.15
2003 - 51.39
2002 - 53.09
2001 - 52.13
2000 - 52.26
1999 - 53.10
1998 - 51.18
1997 - 51.37
1996 - 52.06
1995 - 53.91
1994 - 52.75
1993 - 51.20
1992 - 49.96
1991 - 51.24
1990 - 50.01
1989 - 50.29
1988 - 49.16
1987 - 48.55
1986 - 49.60
1985 - 49.11
1984 - 48.64
1983 - 47.66
1982 - 48.46
1981 - 47.73
1980 - 47.07
1979 - 44.42
1978 - 40.90
1977 - 38.54
1976 - 39.85
1975 - 41.42
1974 - 41.90
1973 - 39.07
1972 - 40.91
1971 - 42.87
1970 - 44.33
 

 

Deamon

Footballguy
Here are the annual percentage of recorded passing plays from each season since the league merger in 1970. 2018 is through last night's PIT/BAL game. I believe that only plays that resulted in an actual pass or a rushing attempt are included. So scrambles would go down as a running play. Plays that resulted in a penalty are not included. Not sure where plays ending in a sack get accounted for.

2018 - 56.67%
2017 - 53.91
2016 - 55.89
2015 - 55.49
2014 - 54.54
2013 - 54.46
2012 - 54.10
2011 - 53.46
2010 - 53.44
2009 - 52.87
2008 - 52.16
2007 - 53.05
2006 - 51.22
2005 - 51.41
2004 - 51.15
2003 - 51.39
2002 - 53.09
2001 - 52.13
2000 - 52.26
1999 - 53.10
1998 - 51.18
1997 - 51.37
1996 - 52.06
1995 - 53.91
1994 - 52.75
1993 - 51.20
1992 - 49.96
1991 - 51.24
1990 - 50.01
1989 - 50.29
1988 - 49.16
1987 - 48.55
1986 - 49.60
1985 - 49.11
1984 - 48.64
1983 - 47.66
1982 - 48.46
1981 - 47.73
1980 - 47.07
1979 - 44.42
1978 - 40.90
1977 - 38.54
1976 - 39.85
1975 - 41.42
1974 - 41.90
1973 - 39.07
1972 - 40.91
1971 - 42.87
1970 - 44.33
 
Interesting.  It's definitely a small sample size so far this year, but a 3% jump is quite significant and more than we've seen in almost any year to year comparison.  I don't really like counting scrambles as running plays, as all of them (except for QB designed running plays) had the intention of a pass when the play was called and ball was snapped.  No passing plays were ever designed as a rush. 

There's some teams like Dallas and New England who brought the average down this week, but half the teams throwing over 40 times this week seems just nuts. 

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Interesting.  It's definitely a small sample size so far this year, but a 3% jump is quite significant and more than we've seen in almost any year to year comparison.  I don't really like counting scrambles as running plays, as all of them (except for QB designed running plays) had the intention of a pass when the play was called and ball was snapped.  No passing plays were ever designed as a rush. 

There's some teams like Dallas and New England who brought the average down this week, but half the teams throwing over 40 times this week seems just nuts. 
We'll see. I have no numbers to base things off, but my recollection is that teams pass more early in the season due to warm weather and good health. As the season goes on, the weather and temp is less conducive to passing . . . and IMO it's easy to run the ball with replacement players than it is to have a high octane passing attack with replacement players. Pick the players involved and that tends to make sense. Back up QBs . . . WRs . . . OL . . . etc. does not usually result in a ton of big plays.

This year would not be that out of line from 2015 or 2016 in terms of passing percentage. As far as called passing plays vs. running plays, I would guess that with more passing attempts now that there would be a slight uptick in called passing plays than in the past. Remember, the same parameters would hold true in the numbers for all other years.

I am surprised that the NFL has taken this long to figure out that you can get a lot more yards in the air than on the ground. Just like it took a few decades for the NBA to figure out that you can score a 3 point FG or get 3 free throws in basketball . . . which on a points per possession standpoint is more efficient than shooting 2 point jump shots. And the NFL is making it easier and easier to load up on passing with the way they call penalties (two hand touch rules for QBs and most grabbing easily can draw a holding or or PI call on the defense).

It would not shock me at all if teams mostly abandon the run altogether. Run 1,000 passing plays and see how many points and yards they rack up. Defenses would get absolutely gassed by the end of the game. You could always use short dump offs as the equivalent as a running game.

I also am still waiting for teams to be more aggressive on 4th down. Teams should go for it way more and kick a lot less. And certainly against certain teams . . . settling for FG attempts should be a flat out no. I can't tell you the number of games I have watched where teams go into NE and keep trading short FGs for NE TDs and then wonder why they are down 28-12 at the half.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
We'll see. I have no numbers to base things off, but my recollection is that teams pass more early in the season due to warm weather and good health. As the season goes on, the weather and temp is less conducive to passing . . . and IMO it's easy to run the ball with replacement players than it is to have a high octane passing attack with replacement players. Pick the players involved and that tends to make sense. Back up QBs . . . WRs . . . OL . . . etc. does not usually result in a ton of big plays.

This year would not be that out of line from 2015 or 2016 in terms of passing percentage. As far as called passing plays vs. running plays, I would guess that with more passing attempts now that there would be a slight uptick in called passing plays than in the past. Remember, the same parameters would hold true in the numbers for all other years.

I am surprised that the NFL has taken this long to figure out that you can get a lot more yards in the air than on the ground. Just like it took a few decades for the NBA to figure out that you can score a 3 point FG or get 3 free throws in basketball . . . which on a points per possession standpoint is more efficient than shooting 2 point jump shots. And the NFL is making it easier and easier to load up on passing with the way they call penalties (two hand touch rules for QBs and most grabbing easily can draw a holding or or PI call on the defense).

It would not shock me at all if teams mostly abandon the run altogether. Run 1,000 passing plays and see how many points and yards they rack up. Defenses would get absolutely gassed by the end of the game. You could always use short dump offs as the equivalent as a running game.

I also am still waiting for teams to be more aggressive on 4th down. Teams should go for it way more and kick a lot less. And certainly against certain teams . . . settling for FG attempts should be a flat out no. I can't tell you the number of games I have watched where teams go into NE and keep trading short FGs for NE TDs and then wonder why they are down 28-12 at the half.
Good analysis.  I mentioned the weather thing in a previous post too and that seems like it would make a lot of sense.  Just not sure the numbers to back that up and if there's any 'by month' pass % stats out there.  Either way, even in September I can't recall ever seeing so much passing.  How often do you get 4 QBs throwing over 50 times in the same week?  I wouldn't be surprised if that's never happened before.  I would bet this week was one of, if not THE most passing attempts in a single NFL week in history (again, would love to somehow find this stat).  We'll likely hit about 1160 for the week after tonight.  

Will be interesting to see how this affects NFL drafts as well as Fantasy drafts if this trend does continue and if your prediction of almost no running altogether becomes a reality.  PPR leagues would/should likely start swapping to 0.5 PPR or Standard scoring.  And not sure if that makes WR's more or less valuable (Do you take the FEW RB's in round 1/2 that are likely to produce big numbers and then just load up on WRs the rest of the way?  Or take the sure fire top WR's early on and swing for RB's later on).

 

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Good analysis.  I mentioned the weather thing in a previous post too and that seems like it would make a lot of sense.  Just not sure the numbers to back that up and if there's any 'by month' pass % stats out there.  Either way, even in September I can't recall ever seeing so much passing.  How often do you get 4 QBs throwing over 50 times in the same week?  I wouldn't be surprised if that's never happened before.  I would bet this week was one of, if not THE most passing attempts in a single NFL week in history (again, would love to somehow find this stat).  We'll likely hit about 1160 for the week after tonight.  

Will be interesting to see how this affects NFL drafts as well as Fantasy drafts if this trend does continue and if your prediction of almost no running altogether becomes a reality.  PPR leagues would/should likely start swapping to 0.5 PPR or Standard scoring.  And not sure if that makes WR's more or less valuable (Do you take the FEW RB's in round 1/2 that are likely to produce big numbers and then just load up on WRs the rest of the way?  Or take the sure fire top WR's early on and swing for RB's later on).
 
I was discussing something similar with someone today. This season in particular has made a mess of fantasy football. When teams go and throw the ball 60 times in a game, it doesn't really matter who the players are . . . their fantasy stock goes through the roof. If you end up having a QB with what usually is a decent fantasy outing (say 300/3) going up against a QB with 450/5 and your opponent also has a couple usually mediocre receivers playing in a shootout, you have very little chance of winning.

There are currently 9 guys trending for 5,000 passing yards . . . and that does not include the likes of Rodgers, Brady, Luck, Stafford, or Mahomes (who hasn't played yet this week). They are something like 25 players on track for around 100 receptions and like 37 guys (before tonight) on track for 1,000 receiving yards and 20 some odd players on pace for 12 TD receptions.

My saving grace is that things have a tendency to mostly even out . . . so at some point this season one would expect a drop in production across the board. But it certainly doesn't feel like that is imminent.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
I was discussing something similar with someone today. This season in particular has made a mess of fantasy football. When teams go and throw the ball 60 times in a game, it doesn't really matter who the players are . . . their fantasy stock goes through the roof. If you end up having a QB with what usually is a decent fantasy outing (say 300/3) going up against a QB with 450/5 and your opponent also has a couple usually mediocre receivers playing in a shootout, you have very little chance of winning.

There are currently 9 guys trending for 5,000 passing yards . . . and that does not include the likes of Rodgers, Brady, Luck, Stafford, or Mahomes (who hasn't played yet this week). They are something like 25 players on track for around 100 receptions and like 37 guys (before tonight) on track for 1,000 receiving yards and 20 some odd players on pace for 12 TD receptions.

My saving grace is that things have a tendency to mostly even out . . . so at some point this season one would expect a drop in production across the board. But it certainly doesn't feel like that is imminent.
Who are the 9?

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Who are the 9?
1 Ben Roethlisberger - 1,414
2 Jared Goff - 1,406
3 Kirk Cousins - 1,3877
4 Derek Carr - 1,373
5 Ryan Fitzpatrick - 1,356
6 Matt Ryan - 1,316
7 Drew Brees - 1,295
8 Joe Flacco - 1,252
9 Deshaun Watson - 1,246

I doubt Fitz stays as the TB starter for the entire season, so he is a likely candidate to fall off. Who knows with the other guys (and guys not on the list), with all the shootouts and OT games of late.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
1 Ben Roethlisberger - 1,414
2 Jared Goff - 1,406
3 Kirk Cousins - 1,3877
4 Derek Carr - 1,373
5 Ryan Fitzpatrick - 1,356
6 Matt Ryan - 1,316
7 Drew Brees - 1,295
8 Joe Flacco - 1,252
9 Deshaun Watson - 1,246

I doubt Fitz stays as the TB starter for the entire season, so he is a likely candidate to fall off. Who knows with the other guys (and guys not on the list), with all the shootouts and OT games of late.
Ya they already named Winston the starter so Fitz will be done.  Still a crazy list, and we should have 7 or so hit 5000.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
So you think they're calling more passing plays because they're less afraid of being hit?
No, but hitting is involved, and I don't think it has anything to do with the QB. It has to do with the watered down rules from mini camp to the end of training camp. They have made so many rules limiting contact and the number of practices that guys don't practice enough and many of them can't tackle once the season starts. Add in that teams are petrified to play starters in preseason games, and you have defenders not really seeing a lot of live contact until the real games start.

I have seen a ton of dump off or short passes go the distance from poor positioning and tackling, that in itself would help explain some of the extreme points and yardage. It certainly doesn't explain the propensity of passing attempts in a week like this week, though. But it definitely seems the offenses started this year more in sync than the defenses have been.

 

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