Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Ryan Fitzpatrick Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[rzrback77]

Ryan Fitzpatrick offers potential for redrafts in 2011. He was ranked at the 18th QB in FBG's year end stats, yet he only played in 13 games. It may not be a good idea to project his 2011 on a pro-rated basis of his per game averages in 2010, but here is what you would get:

Fitz pro-rated '10 313 comp 543 att 57.8% 3682 yds 27 TDs 18 ints 49 rushes 334 yds 0 TDs

Now consider that recent Mock Drafts at FBG, in the WSLs, Fitz was drafted on average QB 23. In the PDSLs, mcuh the same going at 20, 22, and 24. He moved slightly up in the most recent drafts, the SSLs where he was taken at 15, 19, 20 and 20.

If you can grab him as late as QB 20, he could be a great Plan B for injury. I think that the Bills roll with him again in 2011 and he should exceed expectations of where he will be drafted. A solid back-up capable of outproducing his draft spot.

Fitzpatrick 16 gms 330 comp 550 att 60.0% 3850 yds 7.0 ypa 26 TDs 14 ints 45 rushes 280 yds 1 TD

 

[fightingillini]

I think Ryan Fitzpatrick will be one of the most undervalued QBs out there. He played pretty good last year and has some nice targets in Steve Johnson and Lee Evans, along with two good pass catching backs in CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. While BUF D should be better, they will still give up a decent amount of points so I can see BUF behind a lot again. Will end up a solid QB2 that you can grab a little later in the draft.

3600 yards, 26 TD, 13 Int

175 yards rushing, 1 TD

 

[Go deep]

As a Buffalo homer, i was not a fan of Fitzpatrick going into the 2010 season. I didnt like Trent Edwards either. I was just hoping that between them they could lose enough games to get us the first overall pick, and in turn a real NFL QB(Andrew Luck). Trent Edwards did his part early in the season, and the Bills looed like a sure bet for no more than 1 or 2 wins(if they were lucky). When the Bills switched to Fitzpatrick a few games into the season i just assumed the bad play would continue. At first the Bills continued losing games but they were much closer and they were actually scoring some points. As much as i was rooting against Fitzpatrick, he really started to win me over. He is a smart athletic guy with a good arm.

He was never really given an opportunity to start in the NFL before last season, and this will be his first season going into the year as the starter. Im not expecting the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, but i think Fitzpatrick can put up low end QB1 numbers this season. If your are one of the guys who waits until later rounds to take your first QB, after taking guys like Josh Freeman and Jay Cutler, take Fitzpatrick 5 rounds later and get better numbers from your backup than your starter.(Yes, Fitzpatrick will finish with more FF points than Freeman).

330/545, 3810 yards, 28/16, 50 rush, 310 yards, 1 TD's, 325 FF points

 

[FF Ninja]

In 13 games Fitzpatrick completed 57.8% of his 441 passes for 2992/23/15 while also rushing for 271/0 which was good for a QB18 finish last year. At that pace, 16 games would have yielded 3682/28/18 with 334 rushing yards. Those are some pretty good numbers for a guy being drafted as QB21, behind the likes of Cassel, Sanchez, and Tebow. I'd take him over those guys straight up, but if I can wait and land Fitz, then that's even better. In his second year under Gailey he presents great value at QB21. As was mentioned above, Buffalo did throw the ball a lot and ran the ball very little last year, but it is unlikely that Buffalo will be afforded the luxury of leaning on the running game more in 2011. Any shift in that direction could be offset by gained familiarity with the system and the starting receivers.

This projection decreases his att/gm from 33.9 to 31.9, increases his ypa from 6.8 to 7.0, and increases comp % from 57.8 to 58.8, yielding a conservative 223 ypg as compared to last year's 230. It is very feasible that the passes don't decrease and he takes bigger steps forward...

510 att, 300 comp, 3570 yds, 26 TD, 16 INT

300 yards rushing, 1 TD

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Not going to be repetitive here, but IMO, Fitzpatrick has a chance to be this years Kyle Orton. He is being horrifically overlooked and I think it's on the basis on people clinging to Pre-conceived notions on his ability and his background.

1) went to Harvard, not exactly an SEC school.

2) was a 7th rounder

3) is on his 3rd team

4) plays in BUF, a franchise that seems to be perceived as bottom of the barrel, in no small part because people think BUF stinks.

But after an 0-8 start, they went 4-4 in the seasons second half and they lost 3 OT games to BAL, PIT, & KC.

I think Fitzpatrick represents a terrific buy low opportunity and you can get him extremely late, in some case, he's not even being drafted.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I agree that Fitzpatrick is probably worth drafting on potential alone because his price will be cheap.

On the other hand, this team does still reek and will be fortunate to win more than 3 games this season. Any good #s Fitzpatrick puts up will likely occur in garbage time. Just looking at the first month of their schedule I see 4 opponents that will probably hold the ball for 40 minutes vs. the Bills.

The last time a QB started 16 games in Buffalo was Losman in 2006. In years since I have been foolishly optimistic about Losman and Edwards and my expectations for Fitz are now not high. He's worth the cheap price but he's no "bargain." He is a desperation-level start to me.

 

[jbr69gto]

Fitzpatrick will be flying under the radar with most fantasy owners. He could be plugged into your lineup depending on the matchup on a semi-regular basis. The Bills defense is iffy and they could be coming from behind often. Last season I scooped Fitzpatrick up off waivers when Vick went down and he responded with a pair of 21 point games back to back keeping me in the division lead. He can be drafted in the 14th round or later and purchased for $1 at most auctions.

 

[Go deep]

As a Buffalo homer, i was not a fan of Fitzpatrick going into the 2010 season. I didnt like Trent Edwards either. I was just hoping that between them they could lose enough games to get us the first overall pick, and in turn a real NFL QB(Andrew Luck). Trent Edwards did his part early in the season, and the Bills looed like a sure bet for no more than 1 or 2 wins(if they were lucky). When the Bills switched to Fitzpatrick a few games into the season i just assumed the bad play would continue. At first the Bills continued losing games but they were much closer and they were actually scoring some points. As much as i was rooting against Fitzpatrick, he really started to win me over. He is a smart athletic guy with a good arm.

He was never really given an opportunity to start in the NFL before last season, and this will be his first season going into the year as the starter. Im not expecting the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, but i think Fitzpatrick can put up low end QB1 numbers this season. If your are one of the guys who waits until later rounds to take your first QB, after taking guys like Josh Freeman and Jay Cutler, take Fitzpatrick 5 rounds later and get better numbers from your backup than your starter.(Yes, Fitzpatrick will finish with more FF points than Freeman).

330/545, 3810 yards, 28/16, 50 rush, 310 yards, 1 TD's, 325 FF points

This will be my only post i bump.....probably , but im an excited Bills fan right now.

 

[azgroover]

and a

(went with him over Bradford for week 1)

 

[Hue G]

I'm going to be banging my head against the wall every week deciding whether to play Fitzpatrick or Freeman

 

[Sweet Love]

I'm going to be banging my head against the wall every week deciding whether to play Fitzpatrick or Freeman

I projected a regression in stats for each going into 2011 (less so for Freeman, but a regression nonetheless). In the end, I don't think you will have much of a hard time deciding who to put in. Not a knock on Freeman, but Fitz will be like Trent Green early 2000s; always undervalued, always giving you very good production. Green is actually the reason why I usually wait on QB and draft back-to-back QBs in the 10-14 area in almost every draft. This year I broke away from that model a bit, and it is showing already (in the negative).