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Ryan Howard signs 5-year, $125 million deal (1 Viewer)
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dparker713
Footballguy
Murphy and Davis make the league minimum. Howard's extension is currently the second most money per year in MLB, and its not like the Phils can absorb a terrible contract like the Yankees can.His BPIPSP is off the charts as well. Now is the time to buy.
the moops
Footballguy
He was a beast in the 08 World Series and in the 09 NLCS.
G
Guest
Guest
A) I don't think Howard makes the HoF. His career started too late.B) I guess you can call it "well done" money; it still doesn't change the fact that it's a bad contract.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
Good thing they determine MLB winning teams by the contracts they sign their players to.Murphy and Davis make the league minimum. Howard's extension is currently the second most money per year in MLB, and its not like the Phils can absorb a terrible contract like the Yankees can.His BPIPSP is off the charts as well. Now is the time to buy.
G
Guest
Guest
Not true.For less money than the Phillies are paying Ryan Howard, the Mets could run out Adrian Gonzalez.
In 2009 Howard had ~50 more at-bats with men on base than Pujols did .... yet he managed only 6 more RBIs and his OBP was over 100 points lower in that situation. I can't wait to see the $$$ Pujols gets.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
A) point taken. Although I think you are basing his HOF potential on him falling off a cliff in another couple of years and I'm basing it on him being productive for a vast majority of the contract.B) We don't know yet if it is a bad contract.
G
Guest
Guest
Well, there's a little bit of luck involved, too.But seriously you don't want to get caught up on the end of the argument that you're on. Ryan Howard in 3 years could be a disaster of a player making a disastorous amount of money. He will be 1/4 to 1/5 of that team's payroll. And if 1/4 to 1/5 of your team payroll is dead weight from the get go when that money could be used productively, you've hurt yourself. I don't even see why you would try to take the position that you're taking.
G
Guest
Guest
No, we do. Or at least I do.You might not think you got bad odds betting 2-1 that the Saints are going to win the Super Bowl next year but I can tell you right now, you did.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
That's why.
shadyridr
Footballguy
I can name at least 15 players Id rather have on my team than Howard right now
the moops
Footballguy
I can too.I was just rebutting the point that he was an automatic out in the playoffs.
G
Guest
Guest
Let me rephase: He probably will be a disaster of a player. He definitely will be making a disasterous amount ofmoney.
shadyridr
Footballguy
I was talking about the WS actually. My bad
the moops
Footballguy
The 2009 world series. Yes.
dparker713
Footballguy
Actually, we do know its a bad contract. He's never been worth 25 mil a year, so he'll need to have his best years at ages 32-37. Additionally, because of the risk the Phils are taking on, they should be getting a discount, so he needs to be even more productive than someone that signs a 1 yr 25mil contract. They signed this extension after an offseason when the cost of a marginal win went down and may go down yet again next offseason, when Howard would still be under contract. They also kept the guy from free agency during a year when the 1b market will be flooded, and he'd be at best the 3rd best first baseman out there, though really he'd be the 4th (unless of course Adrian Gonzalez, Prince or Albert sign extensions of their own). And finally, this deal kills much of the team's payroll flexibility and virtually assures the departure of Jason Werth. This deal is bad now, with a possibility to be horrible in the near future.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
No...it's a matter of opinion that he isn't worth 25 mil a year.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Jim Thome or Frank Thomas
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
If it wasn't for Ryan Howard the Phillies wouldn't have made it to the World Series. He was on fire in the NLDS and NLCS. Just because he had a bad WS doesn't make him overrated. Both ARod and Teixeira had awful WS, are they overrated too?
You're insane. Howard is an elite player and deserves to be paid. There aren't many guys around who will consistently get you 45 homers and 140 RBI's.
crewmember
Footballguy
Thome was the first guy I thought of when the 36 years old was mentioned. Thome 36 in 06 and had a great year, although the phillies were paying for him to do it in Chicago because of Ryan Howard. We are probably focusing all our attention on the bad, Ortiz, Ortiz, Vaugn, Ortiz. I can't speak for the character of those guys listed but what jumps about Thome and Thomas is how they are hard workers. Phillies wouldn't have made this deal if they didn't think Ryan had that same attiude. And it has shown by his weight loss and improved D over the last couple years. He is doing splits out there for god's sake. Jax quoted ruben there saying how much ryan loved to play the game. Charlie said it last year in the playoffs, how his guys really just love playing and coming to the park, maybe it's cliche but I feel having a group of guys who are enthuastic about their job like that to be a big factor in their success.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
(sabermetricstatmonkey) BUT HR'S AREN"T A MEASURE OF HOW GOOD A PLAYER IS!!!!??? HR'S,FRANKLY SUCK! GIVE ME A WALK ANYDAY!
whoknew
Footballguy
What is your argument that he is worth $25 mil per year?
whoknew
Footballguy
RBI are useless for determining a player's value.
The HRs are great but they certainly don't tell the entire picture of a players value.
Howard's not even the best player on his team - yet he's paid like 2x that player. Does this contract mean Utley walks in 2 years? Or do the Phils give him $30mm per?
crewmember
Footballguy
I understand the concept, but I don't see how it's totally irrelevant. I understand if you take some normal average hitter and place him on phillies he will have more rbi for them then he would the royals. But when you get into talking about a guy who puts 140+ rbi, isn't that pretty close to the ceiling. That's the object of the game to score runs/knock in runs, so when a guy is close to about as high as you can get in that then I think you can use it to determine his value. in 07 a-rod had 156 rbi on a stacked yankees team hitting .314/.422 with 54 hr. If Howard gets close to that rbi total every season, then yes I do think it shows his value.I know stat guys like to devalue average and rbi but saying they have no value whatsoever goes overboard.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Here are 14 hitters Id rather have right now:ARod
Teixeira
Longoria
Mauer
Cabrera
Ichiro
Utley
HRamirez
Pujols
Braun
Fielder
Kemp
Gonzalez
JUpton
Do you honestly disagree with any of these?
Hitting in the middle of the line up, playing half their games in that home park, there are no less than 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers. Which is why Howard was only #27 in VORP last year. There are half a dozen other first basemen who'd put up comparable numbers. Pujols, Tex, Fielder, Gonzalez, Lee, Morneau. Nobody is saying he's not a good player who deserves money. He's an All-Star, top quartile of his position major leaguer and he deserves to get paid like it. However, there's no data whatsoever, past or present, that supports him getting best player at his position money, much less best player in the game money. None. Mark this thread - I guarantee Philly will regret this contract one day, especially since he was already under contract for plenty of money through his prime years.
crewmember
Footballguy
Phillies can't sign any of these guys so I don't know what the point of listing guys you like over Howard is.
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Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Utley can't walk in two years, he isn't a FA until 2014, when he's 35.FA after this year: Werth, Moyer, Durbin
FA in 2012: Rollins, Ibanez, Madson, Romero, Baez, Dobbs, Schneider, Gload
FA in 2013: Lidge, Polanco, Hamels, Victorino, Blanton
FA in 2014: Utley, Ruiz, Francisco, Figeroa
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
Good thing VORP isn't the end all be all.IIRC, the Phillies are not a real sabermetrics organization. They'll tell you they don't have a sabermetrics or advanced statistics guy as an advisor in their decisions. This deal wasn't based on SNUH, SNOOP, TORK or DING numbers.
Will they regret this contract? They might. That seems to be the nature of MLB....guys get paid for past performance or get end of their career money. It might burn them in the butt. But....I don't think anyone can say that he wouldn't have gotten ballpark figure if he broke as a FA....and that is the real measure of whether something is fair market or not.
igbomb
Footballguy
No you don't.Not to be a jerk, but if you don't go out and read the background material, you simply won't understand why RBIs indeed are a useless measure of a player.
RBIs are certainly strongly correlated to overall performance, i.e. a great player will likely have more RBIs. RBIs are like wins in that way. In the absence of all else, they are a decent measure of a player's performance. But given that we have the ability to measure a player's performance with other metrics that measure ONLY their performance, unlike wins and RBIs which also measure other players' performance, RBIs become a useless measure.
Ichiro is the only one I'd quibble with, but yeah, I'd take any of the rest of those guys easily. Another data point - would you rather have player A or B, career #'s shown, age and position same, both left handed 1b:
A = BA-.249 OBP-.383 Slg-.518 HR- 39/year Salary - $12M
B = BA-.279 OBP-.373 Slg-.583 HR- 49/year Salary - $25M
Add Adam Dunn to the list of players the Phillies just made millions of dollars for.
You might want to go look at your stats. He's hit more homers away than at home from 2007 to 2009. During that period, he's hit 73 homers away and 67 homers at home along with 235 RBIs on the road and 188 RBI's at home.ETA: Link.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...p;type=batting3
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Adam Dunn isn't nearly as good as Howard. He's hits a bunch of homers but lacks in comparison in the other categories. Besides, he is already making something like 10 million a year. He's not hurting.
shadyridr
Footballguy
My point is the 15th best hitter in baseball got paid like the 2nd best
You're a Yankees fan. You should understand about overpaying for players.
And that contradicts anything I've stated how, exactly? Oh that's right, it doesn't remotely.Read a little more closely. I said "Hitting in the middle of the line up, playing half their games in that home park, there are no less than 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers". That's saying that players who don't have the benefit of hitting in that park OR have the benefit of that line up around them could reasonably be expected to produce similar numbers if they also got to play with those benefits. Pujols puts up routinely better numbers across the board playing in one of the worst hitter's parks in baseball. What would Matt Kemp do if you switched him and Howard? Longoria?You might want to go look at your stats. He's hit more homers away than at home from 2007 to 2009. During that period, he's hit 73 homers away and 67 homers at home along with 235 RBIs on the road and 188 RBI's at home.
ETA: Link.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...p;type=batting3
dparker713
Footballguy
Its opinion in the way that the existence of gravity is an opinion. Unless Ryan Howard is some major draw, it is verifiable that he is not worth 25mil a year.
crewmember
Footballguy
RBI are useless for determining a player's value.
The HRs are great but they certainly don't tell the entire picture of a players value.
Howard's not even the best player on his team - yet he's paid like 2x that player. Does this contract mean Utley walks in 2 years? Or do the Phils give him $30mm per?
I understand the concept, but I don't see how it's totally irrelevant. I understand if you take some normal average hitter and place him on phillies he will have more rbi for them then he would the royals. But when you get into talking about a guy who puts 140+ rbi, isn't that pretty close to the ceiling. That's the object of the game to score runs/knock in runs, so when a guy is close to about as high as you can get in that then I think you can use it to determine his value. in 07 a-rod had 156 rbi on a stacked yankees team hitting .314/.422 with 54 hr. If Howard gets close to that rbi total every season, then yes I do think it shows his value.
I know stat guys like to devalue average and rbi but saying they have no value whatsoever goes overboard.
No you don't.
Not to be a jerk, but if you don't go out and read the background material, you simply won't understand why RBIs indeed are a useless measure of a player.
RBIs are certainly strongly correlated to overall performance, i.e. a great player will likely have more RBIs. RBIs are like wins in that way. In the absence of all else, they are a decent measure of a player's performance. But given that we have the ability to measure a player's performance with other metrics that measure ONLY their performance, unlike wins and RBIs which also measure other players' performance, RBIs become a useless measure.
No I do, for some reason it just bothers people like you when others cite 140 rbi's and not all the more in-depth stats you like to cite. Someone will says rbi and you'll cite a different stat and say they are wrong for using rbi even if your in agreement on your conclusion of a player. Like I say pujols is good because he had 140 rbi and you'll say no that's useless, he's good because his vorp. We are both saying the same thing, but you have the need to act like I'm stupid although it's an obvious conclusion watching Albert that he is good. I'll like his batting average and you'll laugh and cite his slugging percentage.
140 rbi every year is relevant, when your lead the league or near the lead every year, guess what? That's a great player. It's not rocket surgery so no need to act like it is. I know Albert Pujols would have more rbi for phillies then howard, but I also know he is close to the best that anyone could do. I understand what your saying about it being team dependent, that doesn't mean the term can never ever be uttered again. Save the rbi hatred for when someone is overvalues someone on the yankees or devalues someone on the royals.
The HRs are great but they certainly don't tell the entire picture of a players value.
Howard's not even the best player on his team - yet he's paid like 2x that player. Does this contract mean Utley walks in 2 years? Or do the Phils give him $30mm per?
I understand the concept, but I don't see how it's totally irrelevant. I understand if you take some normal average hitter and place him on phillies he will have more rbi for them then he would the royals. But when you get into talking about a guy who puts 140+ rbi, isn't that pretty close to the ceiling. That's the object of the game to score runs/knock in runs, so when a guy is close to about as high as you can get in that then I think you can use it to determine his value. in 07 a-rod had 156 rbi on a stacked yankees team hitting .314/.422 with 54 hr. If Howard gets close to that rbi total every season, then yes I do think it shows his value.
I know stat guys like to devalue average and rbi but saying they have no value whatsoever goes overboard.
No you don't.
Not to be a jerk, but if you don't go out and read the background material, you simply won't understand why RBIs indeed are a useless measure of a player.
RBIs are certainly strongly correlated to overall performance, i.e. a great player will likely have more RBIs. RBIs are like wins in that way. In the absence of all else, they are a decent measure of a player's performance. But given that we have the ability to measure a player's performance with other metrics that measure ONLY their performance, unlike wins and RBIs which also measure other players' performance, RBIs become a useless measure.
No I do, for some reason it just bothers people like you when others cite 140 rbi's and not all the more in-depth stats you like to cite. Someone will says rbi and you'll cite a different stat and say they are wrong for using rbi even if your in agreement on your conclusion of a player. Like I say pujols is good because he had 140 rbi and you'll say no that's useless, he's good because his vorp. We are both saying the same thing, but you have the need to act like I'm stupid although it's an obvious conclusion watching Albert that he is good. I'll like his batting average and you'll laugh and cite his slugging percentage.
140 rbi every year is relevant, when your lead the league or near the lead every year, guess what? That's a great player. It's not rocket surgery so no need to act like it is. I know Albert Pujols would have more rbi for phillies then howard, but I also know he is close to the best that anyone could do. I understand what your saying about it being team dependent, that doesn't mean the term can never ever be uttered again. Save the rbi hatred for when someone is overvalues someone on the yankees or devalues someone on the royals.
Why even mention the park then? I showed how the park DOESN'T inflate Howard's power numbers. Why are you so sure it would inflate another hitter's?And "reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers"?. Really? You mean 20 to 25 other players would be reasonably expected to hit 45 homers and put up 140 RBI's? That's just crazy talk. Sorry.The numbers disagree. Looks like Dunn's at least a comparable player by any objective analysis. The biggest statistical differences - runs and RBIs - are products of the teams they're playing on. Everything else is very comparable, with Howard coming out a little ahead. Swap Howard and Dunn, and Dunn's #'s would look a lot more like Howard, and vica-versa. There's nothing whatsoever to suggest that Howard is worth more than twice the money Dunn is.
crewmember
Footballguy
that's fine but the phillies don't have the option of signing the 2nd best hitter. Only had the option of Ryan Howard and evidently this is what it took to extend him. If you don't think they should have that's fine but don't see point of talking about other great hitters. The next contracts in a year or 2 the players will be making more then Howard. If not then it was a really bad deal.
Because it's easier to hit home runs in Philly than it is in St. Louis, LA, or Tampa. If you take a player who plays 82 games in a park that suppresses HR production and move them to a park that inflates HR production, you could reasonably expect their production numbers to increase. As for my "crazy talk", it's only crazy to those who don't understand that there are objective ways to measure such things, and those objective measures very strongly suggest that there are at least 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to produce similar numbers.
crewmember
Footballguy
MLB GM's don't agree with you.
:sigh:Because it's easier to hit home runs in Philly than it is in St. Louis, LA, or Tampa. If you take a player who plays 82 games in a park that suppresses HR production and move them to a park that inflates HR production, you could reasonably expect their production numbers to increase. As for my "crazy talk", it's only crazy to those who don't understand that there are objective ways to measure such things, and those objective measures very strongly suggest that there are at least 20-25 players who could reasonably be expected to produce similar numbers.Why even mention the park then? I showed how the park DOESN'T inflate Howard's power numbers. Why are you so sure it would inflate another hitter's?And "reasonably be expected to put up those kinds of numbers"?. Really? You mean 20 to 25 other players would be reasonably expected to hit 45 homers and put up 140 RBI's? That's just crazy talk. Sorry.
