Ryan Howard signs 5-year, $125 million deal (1 Viewer)

[Eephus]

There's a whole lot of stupid going on in this thread.

You can buy a lot of stupid for $125M

 

[Guest]

There's a whole lot of stupid going on in this thread.

I see the Phillies fanbase cares as much about statistical analysis as the Phillies FO.Good luck with that.

 

[the moops]

Yeah....this guy watches Phillies games.

He is, at best, an average defensive first baseman. That is the exact definition of not having any value defensively.

 

[Darth Cheney]

Yeah....this guy watches Phillies games.

He is, at best, an average defensive first baseman. That is the exact definition of not having any value defensively.

What's the sabermetric that measures athleticism? POKE or TWINK?

 

[the moops]

Yeah....this guy watches Phillies games.

He is, at best, an average defensive first baseman. That is the exact definition of not having any value defensively.

What's the sabermetric that measures athleticism? POKE or TWINK?

He is a decent athlete for sure. I wouldnt call him Deion Sanders or anything. Anytime someone has to work as hard as he does to stay somewhat trim, that is not a good indicator of future athleticism.You should leave the made up sabermetric acronym shtick to finless. It's somewhat tolerable coming from him. From you it reeks of approval seeking from your fellow doubters.

 

[Darth Cheney]

Can someone tell old Vance Law to calculate up the formula that will tell us this years World Series champ?

 

[Darth Cheney]

Yeah....this guy watches Phillies games.

He is, at best, an average defensive first baseman. That is the exact definition of not having any value defensively.

What's the sabermetric that measures athleticism? POKE or TWINK?

He is a decent athlete for sure. I wouldnt call him Deion Sanders or anything. Anytime someone has to work as hard as he does to stay somewhat trim, that is not a good indicator of future athleticism.You should leave the made up sabermetric acronym shtick to finless. It's somewhat toreable coming from him. From you it reeks of approval seeking from your fellow doubters.

Actually I was doing in before the Finless alias started.

 

[Darth Cheney]

Yeah....this guy watches Phillies games.

He is, at best, an average defensive first baseman. That is the exact definition of not having any value defensively.

What's the sabermetric that measures athleticism? POKE or TWINK?

He is a decent athlete for sure. I wouldnt call him Deion Sanders or anything. Anytime someone has to work as hard as he does to stay somewhat trim, that is not a good indicator of future athleticism.You should leave the made up sabermetric acronym shtick to finless. It's somewhat toreable coming from him. From you it reeks of approval seeking from your fellow doubters.

Who does sabermetrics say will win tonight?

 

[Genedoc]

Can someone tell old Vance Law to calculate up the formula that will tell us this years World Series champ?

So because economics can't predict where the stock market will go tomorrow, the entire field of economics is useless? How about life insurance? Since actuarial tables cannot predict the day I'll die, they're useless? This is remarkably similar to the logic that says every team in MLB has a 50/50 shot at winning the WS every year, because they either will or they won't.

 

[whoknew]

The Phillies aren't doing that. The Phillies sound like (as per interviews with Dave Montgomery) they believe that they are paying a fair value for a good player for his future production. All I hear from the opposing side is he's just like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn and will break down like all other big men. An overwhelming majority of the Phillies fans here seem to disagree with that analysis of Ryan Howard's body type.

Nobody doubts the Phillies believe that. But that belief is wrong.

 

[Darth Cheney]

The Phillies aren't doing that. The Phillies sound like (as per interviews with Dave Montgomery) they believe that they are paying a fair value for a good player for his future production. All I hear from the opposing side is he's just like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn and will break down like all other big men. An overwhelming majority of the Phillies fans here seem to disagree with that analysis of Ryan Howard's body type.

Nobody doubts the Phillies believe that. But that belief is wrong.

Says an opinion. Not a fact.

 

[Guest]

The Phillies aren't doing that. The Phillies sound like (as per interviews with Dave Montgomery) they believe that they are paying a fair value for a good player for his future production. All I hear from the opposing side is he's just like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn and will break down like all other big men. An overwhelming majority of the Phillies fans here seem to disagree with that analysis of Ryan Howard's body type.

Ryan Howard could look like Manute Bol and he would still have the same statistical profile that looks like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn which is what the comparisons are based off of. You guys are arguing against a strawman that doesn't exist and then being all smug once you've defeated it.

 

[Guest]

The Phillies aren't doing that. The Phillies sound like (as per interviews with Dave Montgomery) they believe that they are paying a fair value for a good player for his future production. All I hear from the opposing side is he's just like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn and will break down like all other big men. An overwhelming majority of the Phillies fans here seem to disagree with that analysis of Ryan Howard's body type.

Nobody doubts the Phillies believe that. But that belief is wrong.

Says an opinion. Not a fact.

Ironic since you've basically thumbed your nose at any introduction of fact and analysis anyone tries to introduce into this thread by making stupid little acronyms.

 

[Eephus]

The Phillies aren't doing that. The Phillies sound like (as per interviews with Dave Montgomery) they believe that they are paying a fair value for a good player for his future production. All I hear from the opposing side is he's just like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn and will break down like all other big men. An overwhelming majority of the Phillies fans here seem to disagree with that analysis of Ryan Howard's body type.

Ryan Howard could look like Manute Bol and he would still have the same statistical profile that looks like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn which is what the comparisons are based off of. You guys are arguing against a strawman that doesn't exist and then being all smug once you've defeated it.

I don't think body type is as important as age. The overwhelming majority of players see their production diminish between ages 29-35. Howard is more likely to decline over the next five years because of his age comps to Vaughn/C.Fielder than a younger guy like Prince Fielder is based on body size comps.

 

[Darth Cheney]

The Phillies aren't doing that. The Phillies sound like (as per interviews with Dave Montgomery) they believe that they are paying a fair value for a good player for his future production. All I hear from the opposing side is he's just like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn and will break down like all other big men. An overwhelming majority of the Phillies fans here seem to disagree with that analysis of Ryan Howard's body type.

Ryan Howard could look like Manute Bol and he would still have the same statistical profile that looks like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn which is what the comparisons are based off of. You guys are arguing against a strawman that doesn't exist and then being all smug once you've defeated it.

We're obviously not going to agree on the Carnac-esque future telling of the various formulas, equations, logarithms, tonics and bromos of the Cult of Sabermetrics...so I guess we'll just have to wait and find out. Well, since you already know the answer....I guess I'll just have to wait to find out.

 

[Guest]

The Phillies aren't doing that. The Phillies sound like (as per interviews with Dave Montgomery) they believe that they are paying a fair value for a good player for his future production. All I hear from the opposing side is he's just like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn and will break down like all other big men. An overwhelming majority of the Phillies fans here seem to disagree with that analysis of Ryan Howard's body type.

Ryan Howard could look like Manute Bol and he would still have the same statistical profile that looks like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn which is what the comparisons are based off of. You guys are arguing against a strawman that doesn't exist and then being all smug once you've defeated it.

We're obviously not going to agree on the Carnac-esque future telling of the various formulas, equations, logarithms, tonics and bromos of the Cult of Sabermetrics...so I guess we'll just have to wait and find out. Well, since you already know the answer....I guess I'll just have to wait to find out.

I'm sure you wear shorts and T-shirts in the middle of the Minnesota winter because who is that Carnac-esque weather guy think he is to tell you that it's going to be 40 degrees below zero.

 

[Genedoc]

The Phillies aren't doing that. The Phillies sound like (as per interviews with Dave Montgomery) they believe that they are paying a fair value for a good player for his future production. All I hear from the opposing side is he's just like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn and will break down like all other big men. An overwhelming majority of the Phillies fans here seem to disagree with that analysis of Ryan Howard's body type.

Ryan Howard could look like Manute Bol and he would still have the same statistical profile that looks like Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn which is what the comparisons are based off of. You guys are arguing against a strawman that doesn't exist and then being all smug once you've defeated it.

We're obviously not going to agree on the Carnac-esque future telling of the various formulas, equations, logarithms, tonics and bromos of the Cult of Sabermetrics...so I guess we'll just have to wait and find out. Well, since you already know the answer....I guess I'll just have to wait to find out.

I'm sure you wear shorts and T-shirts in the middle of the Minnesota winter because who is that Carnac-esque weather guy think he is to tell you that it's going to be 40 degrees below zero.

My signature seems more fitting some times than others.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

 

[Finless]

Yeah....this guy watches Phillies games.

He is, at best, an average defensive first baseman. That is the exact definition of not having any value defensively.

What's the sabermetric that measures athleticism? POKE or TWINK?

He is a decent athlete for sure. I wouldnt call him Deion Sanders or anything. Anytime someone has to work as hard as he does to stay somewhat trim, that is not a good indicator of future athleticism.You should leave the made up sabermetric acronym shtick to finless. It's somewhat toreable coming from him. From you it reeks of approval seeking from your fellow doubters.

Actually I was doing in before the Finless alias started.

Link?

 

[whoknew]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

 

[Finless]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

All he does is knock he cover off the ball at a greater clip than anyone in history.

 

[Billy Bats]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

Not sure what you're laughing at, but no player in history, other than Babe Ruth, has put up numbers like Ryan Howard in his first four years in the league.

 

[Finless]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

Not sure what you're laughing at, but no player in history, other than Babe Ruth, has put up numbers like Ryan Howard in his first four years in the league.

Don't tell the Sabernerds that.

 

[Guest]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

Not sure what you're laughing at, but no player in history, other than Babe Ruth, has put up numbers like Ryan Howard in his first four years in the league.

Don't tell the Sabernerds that.

Ok. And we won't tell you that Ryan Howard was very old, relatively, in his first four years in the league.

 

[dparker713]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

All he does is knock he cover off the ball at a greater clip than anyone in history.

Keith Law didnt come up with those comparables. They're from a formula created by Bill James a while back called Similarity Scores. Contrary to popular belief, we're not all unique little snowflakes, even elite ball players. As such, you can look back at the history of the game to find players with similar statistical profiles and try to extrapolate from them the effects of aging on a player. The thing I find funny in this thread is that the people attacking new analysis dont avoid all statistics. They just pick and choose the ones they're comfortable with, the ones that have been around forever - like citing HRs and RBIs, while at the same time decrying new stats as voodoo.

 

[Finless]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

All he does is knock he cover off the ball at a greater clip than anyone in history.

Keith Law didnt come up with those comparables. They're from a formula created by Bill James a while back called Similarity Scores. Contrary to popular belief, we're not all unique little snowflakes, even elite ball players. As such, you can look back at the history of the game to find players with similar statistical profiles and try to extrapolate from them the effects of aging on a player. The thing I find funny in this thread is that the people attacking new analysis dont avoid all statistics. They just pick and choose the ones they're comfortable with, the ones that have been around forever - like citing HRs and RBIs, while at the same time decrying new stats as voodoo.

Look pal, I'm an elite talent forecaster. People who know me know this. All you need to do is have a look at my fantasy rosters and scores over the years. I dominate.

 

[Eephus]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

All he does is knock he cover off the ball at a greater clip than anyone in history.

Keith Law didnt come up with those comparables. They're from a formula created by Bill James a while back called Similarity Scores. Contrary to popular belief, we're not all unique little snowflakes, even elite ball players. As such, you can look back at the history of the game to find players with similar statistical profiles and try to extrapolate from them the effects of aging on a player. The thing I find funny in this thread is that the people attacking new analysis dont avoid all statistics. They just pick and choose the ones they're comfortable with, the ones that have been around forever - like citing HRs and RBIs, while at the same time decrying new stats as voodoo.

Look pal, I'm an elite talent forecaster. People who know me know this. All you need to do is have a look at my fantasy rosters and scores over the years. I dominate.

Nate McLouth made you

 

[Genedoc]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

All he does is knock he cover off the ball at a greater clip than anyone in history.

Keith Law didnt come up with those comparables. They're from a formula created by Bill James a while back called Similarity Scores. Contrary to popular belief, we're not all unique little snowflakes, even elite ball players. As such, you can look back at the history of the game to find players with similar statistical profiles and try to extrapolate from them the effects of aging on a player. The thing I find funny in this thread is that the people attacking new analysis dont avoid all statistics. They just pick and choose the ones they're comfortable with, the ones that have been around forever - like citing HRs and RBIs, while at the same time decrying new stats as voodoo.

This.

 

[Guest]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

All he does is knock he cover off the ball at a greater clip than anyone in history.

Keith Law didnt come up with those comparables. They're from a formula created by Bill James a while back called Similarity Scores. Contrary to popular belief, we're not all unique little snowflakes, even elite ball players. As such, you can look back at the history of the game to find players with similar statistical profiles and try to extrapolate from them the effects of aging on a player. The thing I find funny in this thread is that the people attacking new analysis dont avoid all statistics. They just pick and choose the ones they're comfortable with, the ones that have been around forever - like citing HRs and RBIs, while at the same time decrying new stats as voodoo.

Look pal, I'm an elite talent forecaster. People who know me know this. All you need to do is have a look at my fantasy rosters and scores over the years. I dominate.

Nate McLouth made you

If that's true, then Ryan Howard is going to unmake him.

 

[Darth Cheney]

I love when Keith Law compares Howard to other players, when in reality, Howard is almost unique. What he's doing has only been done once before and that was by Babe Ruth. Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson are not comparables to Ryan Howard.

All he does is knock he cover off the ball at a greater clip than anyone in history.

Keith Law didnt come up with those comparables. They're from a formula created by Bill James a while back called Similarity Scores. Contrary to popular belief, we're not all unique little snowflakes, even elite ball players. As such, you can look back at the history of the game to find players with similar statistical profiles and try to extrapolate from them the effects of aging on a player.

The thing I find funny in this thread is that the people attacking new analysis dont avoid all statistics. They just pick and choose the ones they're comfortable with, the ones that have been around forever - like citing HRs and RBIs, while at the same time decrying new stats as voodoo.

But it's not like Howards statistical similars all crashed and burned....and one could argue that the ones weren't exactly the result of gradual decline but other things. Vaughn battled injuries and obviously didn't take care of himself as his career went on. Sexson was injured and moved to Seattle.

 

[Finless]

If that's true, then Ryan Howard is going to unmake him.

I've already stated I didn't like the deal. Was just saying I don't think comparisons from a physical standpoint to Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn are accurate. Howard seems to be in much better shape than these guys ever were. Bad deal but Philly did lock up a first balloter for the next 5 years.

 

[Guest]

If that's true, then Ryan Howard is going to unmake him.

I've already stated I didn't like the deal. Was just saying I don't think comparisons from a physical standpoint to Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn are accurate. Howard seems to be in much better shape than these guys ever were. Bad deal but Philly did lock up a first balloter for the next 5 years.

Yes, but the only people making physical comparisons are the people who say that they don't agree with them. Everyone else is making statistical profile comparisons.ETA: Also I don't expect Howard to be a HoF'er, much less first ballot. Seattle has a real first balloter on their roster but it isn't helping them much. Not any more, anyway.

 

[Finless]

If that's true, then Ryan Howard is going to unmake him.

I've already stated I didn't like the deal. Was just saying I don't think comparisons from a physical standpoint to Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn are accurate. Howard seems to be in much better shape than these guys ever were. Bad deal but Philly did lock up a first balloter for the next 5 years.

Yes, but the only people making physical comparisons are the people who say that they don't agree with them. Everyone else is making statistical profile comparisons.ETA: Also I don't expect Howard to be a HoF'er, much less first ballot. Seattle has a real first balloter on their roster but it isn't helping them much. Not any more, anyway.

I often here people toss around the bulky overweight first baseman/DH that breaks down physically and loses his eye-sight argument. Can't catch up to the fastball. Can't see it well enough and can't turn on it quick enough. I just don't see Howard as this guy. I think he'll be good until 35 producing at a decent clip. Nothing under 35 115 barring injury and probably closer to 42 130 for the length. He's 30 now....not early 30's, not mid 30's.

 

[Darth Cheney]

If that's true, then Ryan Howard is going to unmake him.

I've already stated I didn't like the deal. Was just saying I don't think comparisons from a physical standpoint to Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn are accurate. Howard seems to be in much better shape than these guys ever were. Bad deal but Philly did lock up a first balloter for the next 5 years.

Yes, but the only people making physical comparisons are the people who say that they don't agree with them. Everyone else is making statistical profile comparisons.ETA: Also I don't expect Howard to be a HoF'er, much less first ballot. Seattle has a real first balloter on their roster but it isn't helping them much. Not any more, anyway.

That's not exactly true....

2) As I'm sure you know, the career trajectories for fat guys with "old man skills" is not good. They generally fall off a cliff fast and early.

Old man skills are generally used to describe big, husky guys don't move well, don't run well, don't field well but walk a lot and pull the ball a ton with power. Think Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, Cecil Fielder, Prince Fielder, etc.

That sure does seem to be physical comparisons from a anti trade guy. Everyone after that rebuking that analysis.

 

[Guest]

If that's true, then Ryan Howard is going to unmake him.

I've already stated I didn't like the deal. Was just saying I don't think comparisons from a physical standpoint to Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn are accurate. Howard seems to be in much better shape than these guys ever were. Bad deal but Philly did lock up a first balloter for the next 5 years.

Yes, but the only people making physical comparisons are the people who say that they don't agree with them. Everyone else is making statistical profile comparisons.ETA: Also I don't expect Howard to be a HoF'er, much less first ballot. Seattle has a real first balloter on their roster but it isn't helping them much. Not any more, anyway.

That's not exactly true....

2) As I'm sure you know, the career trajectories for fat guys with "old man skills" is not good. They generally fall off a cliff fast and early.

Old man skills are generally used to describe big, husky guys don't move well, don't run well, don't field well but walk a lot and pull the ball a ton with power. Think Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, Cecil Fielder, Prince Fielder, etc.

That sure does seem to be physical comparisons from a anti trade guy. Everyone after that rebuking that analysis.

So in a 4 page thread, the best thing you could find is something that talks about fat guys with old man skills. So the very best you got is one incident of a mixed bag. Weak as hell.

 

[Darth Cheney]

If that's true, then Ryan Howard is going to unmake him.

I've already stated I didn't like the deal. Was just saying I don't think comparisons from a physical standpoint to Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn are accurate. Howard seems to be in much better shape than these guys ever were. Bad deal but Philly did lock up a first balloter for the next 5 years.

Yes, but the only people making physical comparisons are the people who say that they don't agree with them. Everyone else is making statistical profile comparisons.ETA: Also I don't expect Howard to be a HoF'er, much less first ballot. Seattle has a real first balloter on their roster but it isn't helping them much. Not any more, anyway.

That's not exactly true....

2) As I'm sure you know, the career trajectories for fat guys with "old man skills" is not good. They generally fall off a cliff fast and early.

Old man skills are generally used to describe big, husky guys don't move well, don't run well, don't field well but walk a lot and pull the ball a ton with power. Think Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, Cecil Fielder, Prince Fielder, etc.

That sure does seem to be physical comparisons from a anti trade guy. Everyone after that rebuking that analysis.

So in a 4 page thread, the best thing you could find is something that talks about fat guys with old man skills. So the very best you got is one incident of a mixed bag. Weak as hell.

Another quote via Keith Law..."This is one of the worst extension of its kind -- it's an overpay in both years and dollars. Howard is one of the last guys in the middle of the lineup I'd give that kind of money, too. He's 30, has a bad body, is not a good defender, and has struggled to make contact to versus lefties -- he's gone backwards in that area over the past couple of years. If you were locking him up through age 31, it's not so bad. How happy are if you're Albert Pujols? If Howard is worth $25 million, Pujols is worth $50 million a year."

You yourself said:

In any case, Howard's body type and skill set (which is almost more important) still fit into the mold. It might work out for the Phillies but odds say it won't.

 

[Michael Brown]

If that's true, then Ryan Howard is going to unmake him.

I've already stated I didn't like the deal. Was just saying I don't think comparisons from a physical standpoint to Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn are accurate. Howard seems to be in much better shape than these guys ever were. Bad deal but Philly did lock up a first balloter for the next 5 years.

Yes, but the only people making physical comparisons are the people who say that they don't agree with them. Everyone else is making statistical profile comparisons.ETA: Also I don't expect Howard to be a HoF'er, much less first ballot. Seattle has a real first balloter on their roster but it isn't helping them much. Not any more, anyway.

I often here people toss around the bulky overweight first baseman/DH that breaks down physically and loses his eye-sight argument. Can't catch up to the fastball. Can't see it well enough and can't turn on it quick enough. I just don't see Howard as this guy. I think he'll be good until 35 producing at a decent clip. Nothing under 35 115 barring injury and probably closer to 42 130 for the length. He's 30 now....not early 30's, not mid 30's.

So then the question becomes, in two years when he'd be 32 years old and going 42-120 and hypothetically hit the open market, was he going to get a 5-year, $125 million deal at that point? I, and most others, feel there is ZERO chance that would have happened. So even if Howard continues doing what he's doing with a slight regression factored in for age, he wasn't going to get this kind of scratch on the FA market -- especially since the Yankees would not be in the mix to drive up the price.

 

[Guest]

Another quote via Keith Law...

"This is one of the worst extension of its kind -- it's an overpay in both years and dollars. Howard is one of the last guys in the middle of the lineup I'd give that kind of money, too. He's 30, has a bad body, is not a good defender, and has struggled to make contact to versus lefties -- he's gone backwards in that area over the past couple of years. If you were locking him up through age 31, it's not so bad. How happy are if you're Albert Pujols? If Howard is worth $25 million, Pujols is worth $50 million a year."

You yourself said:

In any case, Howard's body type and skill set (which is almost more important) still fit into the mold. It might work out for the Phillies but odds say it won't.

So another mixed bag and quoting from a long article that was posted. Just admit that you were tilting at windmills and let's move on.

 

[Darth Cheney]

If that's true, then Ryan Howard is going to unmake him.

I've already stated I didn't like the deal. Was just saying I don't think comparisons from a physical standpoint to Cecil Fielder and Mo Vaughn are accurate. Howard seems to be in much better shape than these guys ever were. Bad deal but Philly did lock up a first balloter for the next 5 years.

Yes, but the only people making physical comparisons are the people who say that they don't agree with them. Everyone else is making statistical profile comparisons.

ETA: Also I don't expect Howard to be a HoF'er, much less first ballot. Seattle has a real first balloter on their roster but it isn't helping them much. Not any more, anyway.

That's not exactly true....

2) As I'm sure you know, the career trajectories for fat guys with "old man skills" is not good. They generally fall off a cliff fast and early.

Old man skills are generally used to describe big, husky guys don't move well, don't run well, don't field well but walk a lot and pull the ball a ton with power. Think Mo Vaughn, David Ortiz, Cecil Fielder, Prince Fielder, etc.

That sure does seem to be physical comparisons from a anti trade guy. Everyone after that rebuking that analysis.

So in a 4 page thread, the best thing you could find is something that talks about fat guys with old man skills. So the very best you got is one incident of a mixed bag. Weak as hell.

I didn't write the bolded.

 

[Darth Cheney]

Another quote via Keith Law...

"This is one of the worst extension of its kind -- it's an overpay in both years and dollars. Howard is one of the last guys in the middle of the lineup I'd give that kind of money, too. He's 30, has a bad body, is not a good defender, and has struggled to make contact to versus lefties -- he's gone backwards in that area over the past couple of years. If you were locking him up through age 31, it's not so bad. How happy are if you're Albert Pujols? If Howard is worth $25 million, Pujols is worth $50 million a year."

You yourself said:

In any case, Howard's body type and skill set (which is almost more important) still fit into the mold. It might work out for the Phillies but odds say it won't.

So another mixed bag and quoting from a long article that was posted. Just admit that you were tilting at windmills and let's move on.

Once again....you said Yes, but the only people making physical comparisons are the people who say that they don't agree with them. Everyone else is making statistical profile comparisons.

 

[Guest]

Another quote via Keith Law...

"This is one of the worst extension of its kind -- it's an overpay in both years and dollars. Howard is one of the last guys in the middle of the lineup I'd give that kind of money, too. He's 30, has a bad body, is not a good defender, and has struggled to make contact to versus lefties -- he's gone backwards in that area over the past couple of years. If you were locking him up through age 31, it's not so bad. How happy are if you're Albert Pujols? If Howard is worth $25 million, Pujols is worth $50 million a year."

You yourself said:

In any case, Howard's body type and skill set (which is almost more important) still fit into the mold. It might work out for the Phillies but odds say it won't.

So another mixed bag and quoting from a long article that was posted. Just admit that you were tilting at windmills and let's move on.

Once again....you said Yes, but the only people making physical comparisons are the people who say that they don't agree with them. Everyone else is making statistical profile comparisons.

No, but you were the one who said

Howard has actually done a lot to shed that fat guy body type.

So has Ortiz.In any case, Howard's body type and skill set (which is almost more important) still fit into the mold. It might work out for the Phillies but odds say it won't.

So all of this is based off of the same exchange where you were the one who directed the conversation to his body type. You should have given up when you weren't so far behind.

 

[Genedoc]

Another quote via Keith Law...

"This is one of the worst extension of its kind -- it's an overpay in both years and dollars. Howard is one of the last guys in the middle of the lineup I'd give that kind of money, too. He's 30, has a bad body, is not a good defender, and has struggled to make contact to versus lefties -- he's gone backwards in that area over the past couple of years. If you were locking him up through age 31, it's not so bad. How happy are if you're Albert Pujols? If Howard is worth $25 million, Pujols is worth $50 million a year."

You yourself said:

In any case, Howard's body type and skill set (which is almost more important) still fit into the mold. It might work out for the Phillies but odds say it won't.

So another mixed bag and quoting from a long article that was posted. Just admit that you were tilting at windmills and let's move on.

Once again....you said Yes, but the only people making physical comparisons are the people who say that they don't agree with them. Everyone else is making statistical profile comparisons.

The point is that the body comparisons are irrelevant, single quips amid a sea of data, and yet you and others are harping on that one element as if disproving the body comparison will render the rest of the statistical analyses moot. It doesn't, which is why I've stated several times to ignore any mention of body and just look at the data, which is plentiful and indicates that comparisons to Sexson, Fielder, Vaughn, and many others are reasonable regardless of morphology.

 

[Darth Cheney]

So all of this is based off of the same exchange where you were the one who directed the conversation to his body type. You should have given up when you weren't so far behind.

Come on Snoop. I can carry you a few rounds but I ain't going to throw the fight to you. Link to the whole thing and you'll find I wasn't the one who stated the body type discussion. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=11770897

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Please don't copy and paste premium content from other websites. Thanks.

 

[Darth Cheney]

Another quote via Keith Law...

"This is one of the worst extension of its kind -- it's an overpay in both years and dollars. Howard is one of the last guys in the middle of the lineup I'd give that kind of money, too. He's 30, has a bad body, is not a good defender, and has struggled to make contact to versus lefties -- he's gone backwards in that area over the past couple of years. If you were locking him up through age 31, it's not so bad. How happy are if you're Albert Pujols? If Howard is worth $25 million, Pujols is worth $50 million a year."

You yourself said:

In any case, Howard's body type and skill set (which is almost more important) still fit into the mold. It might work out for the Phillies but odds say it won't.

So another mixed bag and quoting from a long article that was posted. Just admit that you were tilting at windmills and let's move on.

Once again....you said Yes, but the only people making physical comparisons are the people who say that they don't agree with them. Everyone else is making statistical profile comparisons.

The point is that the body comparisons are irrelevant, single quips amid a sea of data, and yet you and others are harping on that one element as if disproving the body comparison will render the rest of the statistical analyses moot. It doesn't, which is why I've stated several times to ignore any mention of body and just look at the data, which is plentiful and indicates that comparisons to Sexson, Fielder, Vaughn, and many others are reasonable regardless of morphology.

How much are future comparisons valid though? To say that just because Howards statistics compare at this point in his age to these people doesn't take into account why the players that you are comparing him to fell off. Sexson and Vaughn had bad injuries. Vaughn let himself go physically. Sexson went to Seattle. Papi had a wrist injury. Part of the reason that these players went downhill was undoubtedly because of age. That happens to everyone. Noone's saying that it won't happen to Ryan Howard. Plus, people who bring up the baseballreference.com list seem to be ignoring players such as McCovey, Crime Dog and Delgado ( I won't even bring up McGwire)...players who had good seasons into their later years.

 

[Guest]

So all of this is based off of the same exchange where you were the one who directed the conversation to his body type. You should have given up when you weren't so far behind.

Come on Snoop. I can carry you a few rounds but I ain't going to throw the fight to you. Link to the whole thing and you'll find I wasn't the one who stated the body type discussion. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&p=11770897

I tried quoting it all but ran into that, "Too many quotes" error.Yah. I said David Ortiz says hi. David Ortiz is one of Howard's top comps. And he's fallen hard, severe, and without warning in the last season plus.

 

[Guest]

Please don't copy and paste premium content from other websites. Thanks.

Sure. How do you define premium content?

 

[pollardsvision]

Please don't copy and paste premium content from other websites. Thanks.

Sure. How do you define premium content?

I believe he means content that is meant to be exchanged for money.

 

[Guest]

Please don't copy and paste premium content from other websites. Thanks.

Sure. How do you define premium content?

I believe he means content that is meant to be exchanged for money.

That's what I figured he meant but what he deleted was the Baseball Reference comps to Ryan Howard. Those are freely available. The website doesn't even have accounts that I know of, much less pay accounts.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Please don't copy and paste premium content from other websites. Thanks.

Sure. How do you define premium content?

money that websites charge you to read and thus would be unhappy if you started giving it away for free.