Ryan Mathews will not break 1000 yds rushing this year (1 Viewer)

[Alex P Keaton]

Since the league went with a 16-game schedule in 1978, there have been 38 RB that have hit the 250 carry threshold in those 32 years. So basically 1 per season on average. Last year there were none.

I don't know if 250 carries for a rookie should be considered tough to accomplish or not. I would guess starting from week one should help, but I don't think any rookie should be considered a shoo in for that many carries.

Just to clarify, you meant that there have been 38 rookie RBs to hit the 250 carry threshold in 32 years, correct?

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Since the league went with a 16-game schedule in 1978, there have been 38 RB that have hit the 250 carry threshold in those 32 years. So basically 1 per season on average. Last year there were none.

I don't know if 250 carries for a rookie should be considered tough to accomplish or not. I would guess starting from week one should help, but I don't think any rookie should be considered a shoo in for that many carries.

Just to clarify, you meant that there have been 38 rookie RBs to hit the 250 carry threshold in 32 years, correct?

I was assuming that was the case, otherwise I look like a big dummy with the numbers I posted.

 

[Tau837]

I still haven't seen the crux of your argument that supports a double digit baseline in TD's, something that is statistically rare for most NFL backs.

With regard to double digit TDs, the best arguments IMO are the following:1. While Matthews is not a proven NFL runner, either at the goal line, in the red zone, or anywhere else, neither is any other RB on the Chargers.2. The Chargers' OL and Tomlinson last year suffered from injuries and ineffectiveness, yet Tomlinson still had 12 rushing TDs.3. Over the past two seasons, despite LT's declining performance, the Chargers were second in the NFL in red zone RB carries, with 177, and they were among the league leaders in rushing TDs, with 28.4. Turner has been a NFL OC or HC for 19 seasons. In 14 of those seasons, his lead RB had double digit TDs. In two of the others, his lead back had 8 and 9 TDs. And to varying degrees, his RBs in the 5 seasons without double figure TDs were not very talented and/or injured. Some might say that this was the result of Turner having LT, Emmitt, and Ricky Williams, but he also got double figure TDs from Terry Allen, Stephen Davis, and Lamont Jordan.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I still haven't seen the crux of your argument that supports a double digit baseline in TD's, something that is statistically rare for most NFL backs.

With regard to double digit TDs, the best arguments IMO are the following:1. While Matthews is not a proven NFL runner, either at the goal line, in the red zone, or anywhere else, neither is any other RB on the Chargers.2. The Chargers' OL and Tomlinson last year suffered from injuries and ineffectiveness, yet Tomlinson still had 12 rushing TDs.3. Over the past two seasons, despite LT's declining performance, the Chargers were second in the NFL in red zone RB carries, with 177, and they were among the league leaders in rushing TDs, with 28.4. Turner has been a NFL OC or HC for 19 seasons. In 14 of those seasons, his lead RB had double digit TDs. In two of the others, his lead back had 8 and 9 TDs. And to varying degrees, his RBs in the 5 seasons without double figure TDs were not very talented and/or injured. Some might say that this was the result of Turner having LT, Emmitt, and Ricky Williams, but he also got double figure TDs from Terry Allen, Stephen Davis, and Lamont Jordan.

I am not going to shoot down your arguments 1-4. There is validity to your post. I still hold my reservations, but it's a good thing that I don't draft in any of my money leagues until late August. I'll check out Mathews and let him change my mind.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

My thoughts on this...

Norv Turner says he expects Mathews to get 250 carries

So I looked over the past 20 years (1989-2009) for RB's who had over 250 carries in a season.

Of the 286 seasons in which a RB had over 250 carries, 259 of them topped 1000 yards.

In other words, a RB who carries the ball 250 times or more has a 90.5 % likelihood of topping 1000 yards.

It wouldn't surprise me if he gets more than 250 carries as well.

In short, I think the odds are extremely high that barring injury Mathews rushes for over 1000 yards.

Stats

I've been saying all along that I am less concerned whether Mathews will get 1,000 yards and that I am more interested if he will end up being worth his draft spot to acquire him in a redraft league.Since the league went with a 16-game schedule in 1978, there have been 38 RB that have hit the 250 carry threshold in those 32 years. So basically 1 per season on average. Last year there were none.

I don't know if 250 carries for a rookie should be considered tough to accomplish or not. I would guess starting from week one should help, but I don't think any rookie should be considered a shoo in for that many carries.

I guess that is the gist of the argument I was making about the downside of taking Mathews at or near his ADP. But when David Yudkin, a FBG moderator echoes similar concerns, it seems to be a sound argument. If even he is only playing devil's advocate, it is good information to consider before taking the plunge in the 2nd round on a rookie RB. But coming from a Raider Fan, it's taken as lunacy.

 

[dwyadog]

Lot of risk involved. I come in on the side that believes matthews will do quite well. I know his adp is getting a bit insane even for me but every league has its own dynamics. When I total up the risk/reward column for the guys around him in the draft, it doesnt seem like a huge stretch to me. Just one mans thoughts.

 

[Tau837]

I'm telling you, he'll get at least 300 touches and 10 scores this year if healthy. There are only a handful of guys that I can say that about with any confidence (in case anyone is wondering, off the top of my head the others are MJD, AP, Turner, Gore, Grant, & Greene).

Did you intend to leave off Chris Johnson?

 

[Sopranos25]

Barring injury he is a 100% lock for 1000 and 10 look at SD's numbers for the last decade. Will he get it. I dont think so, i feel someone will step up a steal yards

 

[Tau837]

Barring injury he is a 100% lock for 1000 and 10 look at SD's numbers for the last decade. Will he get it. I dont think so, i feel someone will step up a steal yards

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Barring injury he is a 100% lock for 1000 and 10 look at SD's numbers for the last decade. Will he get it. I dont think so, i feel someone will step up a steal yards

A lock in one sentence and not a lock in the next. This reasoning is Please go out on a limb and tell us why.

 

[WVU Alum]

Barring injury he is a 100% lock for 1000 and 10 look at SD's numbers for the last decade. Will he get it. I dont think so, i feel someone will step up a steal yards

I'm not sure this means what you think it means.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I really think that there is value in LT this year. Not in the way it sounds though. I am 100% convinced that LT is a bad RB and was a very bad RB last year and will be even worse this year. Saying LT lost his legs long ago is the one thing I would scream from the mountaintop with respect to fantasy football. The value comes twofold, Shonn Greene and Ryan Mathews will both be great plays this year, I can't say that Mathews is undervalued because he's going in the first round, I'd say he is slotted correctly and Shonn Greene won't surprise me at all to finish the year as the top RB in non-ppr fantasy leagues, obviously Greene is someone I would say is undervalued.

For Mathews I can easily see 1300/14 on the ground with another 40/300/2. The talk of a sub 1000 yard season seems highly unlikely to me, he is someone I will target in drafts and hope owners in those leagues see him as a sub 1000 yard guy.

 

[Donnybrook]

Mathews has a much easier schedule in his favor this year. Instead of the facing the AFC North the Chargers get the AFC South and instead of the NFC East they get the NFC West. He might have a couple of huge rushing games against the likes of the Rams, Jags or Seahawks not to mention his AFC West defenses that they face every year.

I don't know if they could create a better schedule for a running back if they tried.

 

[moderated]

To start, I don't see SD in the bottom 5, but somewhere in the bottom 10. Didn't realize you wanted it that specific. Again, I'm sorry this topic and how/why it was started isn't to your liking. Not every thread can be a HOF thread. It wasn't that I took issue with that specific ranking but that just in general I wanted to challenge the notion that Mathews is in such a great situation simply because of workload. That was the basic premise and how it got started. As a result of this thread, I've gone back and looked at a lot more numbers and was also made aware a bit more about the SD situation in general and rookie RBs and their performances in general. Again, not every post can be chock full of glorious SP worthiness, but there are some really good thoughts and thought processes in here. I'm happy with this thread. Not every thread is to everyone's liking and it's fine if this isn't to yours. Those dismissing this thread as having no value and no discussion just choose to not agree with certain points and think it's just nonsense instead of actually taking what's been said and contemplating it. I actually appreciate your position because I don't think you're blindly thinking that Mathews will do well. You have very good reasons for your positions and I can easily get on board with them. You probably had them before this thread but if anything maybe they've been solidified. Others, however, may not have thought about it as in depth before. If they hadn't, read this thread, still thought my idea was nonsense but at least thought through why they did so, then that again is all I'm looking for. I'm not looking to convince the masses of the SP that Mathews sucks in 2010. Part of the reason as to why I'm opposed to the team projection is that I'm not a fan of projections to begin with. I don't do them myself and I've posted in different threads why that is. To me, I could take the same player, throw up vastly different projections, and most likely could easily come up with a legitimate argument for either side of it. In the end, projections are just a reflection of how I feel about a player. Secondly, I don't find projections particularly useful if there is a major change in the landscape. Again, it's a lot of guessing. I will be the first to admit that I think Mathews actually has a very large range because of the unknowns and how good he really is. He could come out on fire, log 300 carries, and light the world on fire. I won't dismiss that as a possibility. I also think he's got a very safe floor and I just happen to think that's the most likely year end numbers that he hits. Either way, you have a great argument for why they'll run more. I just happen to think it won't change much THIS YEAR. That's all.As to your comments re: Norv, you're right, I exaggerated in terms of how much I took them to heart. But I do think Norv is actually a pretty smart coach in some aspects and I don't think he's going to overwork Mathews this year unless he rises up to the challenge and performs exceptionally well. He doesn't need to. I most definitely have some IFs in my argument. If I didn't, it'd probably be the consensus thinking. I just find it funny when others don't consider those IFs as even possibilities. Again, it's why I started this thread to begin with.

I've been really busy but been meaning to get to this.Well, if you only expect them to be in the bottom 6-10, all of those teams averaged over 4.0 ypc last year. This would bode well for Matthews and approach contradictory status with the 250 carry sub-1000 yard argument.It's not that I hate the topic, I just stated that I found the dramatic title a bit ridiculous when given the fact that you are actually projecting him to have just under 1000 yards and the consensus seems to be around 1100 yards. I mean, you say people will want refunds. If he gets 1200 combined yards instead of 1300, I don't think people will be calling for his head. But his prospects are worth discussing, obviously. I was just saying the discussion could have been framed better. This is really just a side point anyway.I am actually not a huge projections fan myself but in a lot of cases it can clear things up before getting into more in depth details (often when people are pressed for projections to back up an outlandish opinion on a player the projections turn out to be nearly impossible). It is a situational thing... For the Bears backfield, it is a fruitless exercise. But I think there is some use in a situation like SD. The coaching staff has been there for a few years as have most of the key personnel. In a case like that, historical data is a useful tool. Running through projections for all the backs is just one exercise you should do in a case like that. Then compare to the last few years and if you are way off (like only 6 rushing TD) then that's a red flag. It doesn't mean you are wrong, just that you should look more closely at the situation and be open to the idea that you just might be off here.Didn't Norv give LT like 400 touches his rookie year? And it's hard to predict now that he won't need to lean on Matthews. Especially considering the total lack of options around him. I'm no Charles fan but I find it a bit of a reach for Thomas Jones to be the main argument for so many of the detractors, yet if Thomas Jones or LT (both are on fumes IMO) were on SD then I'd feel a lot more like 250 was accurate rather than a floor. TJ and LT are clearly insurance options, but I think even those two would see the field more often than Tolbert or Hester and I really think Sproles maintains his role (as Norv has stated) meaning ~5 carries/gm.The preseason is all about ifs. It's all about discerning between the ifs and the IFs, though. To me, Beanie or Charles succeeding requires some big IFs. Shonn Greene succeeding, little ifs (if he can get goal line carries, if he can stay healthy). Matthew sucking requires big IFs. Matthews moderately succeeding, little if (if he takes LT's totally vacant role).

Mr Two dropping the knowledge AND using paragraphs.

 

[gianmarco]

Well, if you only expect them to be in the bottom 6-10, all of those teams averaged over 4.0 ypc last year. This would bode well for Matthews and approach contradictory status with the 250 carry sub-1000 yard argument.

Overall a good post, but I just wanted to point out something regarding this statement.In 2008, SD had 439 rushing attempts. They had a team 4.1 ypc, tied for 18th in the NFL.That year, LT had 292 carries and had 3.8 ypc.It's very possible for Mathews to be sub 4.0 ypc even at 250 carries and for the team to be a few tenths of a yard higher as a team average. So I don't think it approaches contradictory status at all.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I don't want to get started again on Mathews, but like Mrtwo94, I also am waiting unitl late August to have my real drafts. If Mathews impresses, maybe I move him up my board. One unique thing about the SD running back this year is that he should get a lot of work in preseason. When LT took entire preseasons off, you just had to trust he was the same uberstud as always. With Mathews, we'll know if he is up to the challenge soon enough. That's a good thing.

My philosophy on FF is I absolutely need a producer, not necessarily a home run hitter, but a solid "pencil in 15-20 points a week" guy in rounds 1 and 2. I have confidence that mid level rounds picks and in-season managment will keep me competitve for the FF playoffs. A guy like Mathews drafted in the second round is really going to have to impress for me to take him there. There is so much more reliable talent surrounding his ADP. Also, I am in the minority here, but I believe that both the Raiders and Chiefs D lines will improve and so I don't think its as easy a schedule as it's been made to be.

 

[Gr00vus]

I was listening to local sports radio last night and they had Kevin Acee (the SD Union Tribune Chargers beat writer) on.

Among other things he said if he were drafting a fantasy team he wouldn't take Matthews early - he doesn't see him getting more than 250 carries, figures it'll be more in the 230 range, he won't get any 3rd downs and that Tolbert will get a decent number of carries. He likes Matthews's ability, and said he does expect some big games from him this season, a few multiple td games with seriously long runs.

 

[craxie]

Some Mathews notes from camp

SI_PeterKing - Just watched Chargers for 2 hrs. You need to think very seriously about making Ryan Mathews a first-round fantasy pick. He's a man.

SDUTChargers

- It's just practice -- no tackling -- but I'm dang sure Ryan Mathews just blew up Darrell Stuckey

- Ouch! Never heard practice crowd get on player like this one just did when Mathews dropped a pass. High expectations?

- Think expectations r too high for Mathews this season? >No. Should be high. And he's been a good receiver

NCTimes: Expectations are high for RB Ryan Mathews. Despite an otherwise productive afternoon practice, a dropped pass brought a chorus of boos from the crowd and some jeering from his teammates.

BFTB_Chargers:

- Mathews showing off the stiff arm.

- Mathews has hands of stone.

Beerman: Ryan Matthews is all he is being billed to be. He has some serious explosiveness off the line. Our running game will be substantially better this year no doubt.

Jay One: well mathews is good saw him today unlike L.T. he has the power to run up the gut and the speed for the off tackle runs and he also said that he enjoys running up the middle. so thats great.

BFTB_Chargers: Mathews vision is insane for a rookie.

bolthype

- Ryan Mathews finished off a run outside by stiff-arming an unsuspecting Darrell Stuckey into the ground

- Mathews = money on those inside runs. Stays low through the hole and emerges with a head full of steam

- Ryan Mathews still has some work to do in the passing game. This is a good time to work that all out

SDchargersdude: Mathews just locked up Cooper in a pass protection drill

boltsfromtheblue.com

Ryan Mathews seems to impress me every time he gets the ball. Is this because he's better and/or trying harder than an over-the-hill LaDainian Tomlinson? I have no idea, but the more you watch these practices the easier it becomes to spot the best player on each unit. As much as I love Darren Sproles as a change-of-pace RB and one of the league's best KR, Mathews has already shown himself to be leaps and bounds ahead of him and any other RB on the team (I haven't seen Tolbert at practice yet). We have ourselves a legitimate RB for the first time in a couple years, folks

Back to Mathews for a second. I've been searching for a good comparison in the NFL for him so that I could easily let people know what type of player he is, and it has turned out to be a difficult task. There are obviously guys that can out-do his speed and agility, but those guys seemingly can't match his size and power. Once he gets going in a straight-line, his speed and bowling ball-like force could match Michael Turner's. However, unlike Turner he has a shiftiness to him and seems to make big cuts on a dime without losing momentum. So he's like a shifty Turner, or shifty and fast Marion Barber, or a bigger (more powerful) Maurice Jones-Drew. Too much hype? Probably, but that's the only way I can describe his collection of skills.

Brian (DaBolts)

I like that Mathews seems to be able to get the edge, when was the last time LT got around the corner? Also he sees the hole and hits it fast. He seems to straight arm a lot in practice, it seemed to tick Weddle off the other day. I noticed Weddle gave him a little shot his next time through; the third time they both sorta backed off. It was funny. I was with Buck where I would have liked to have kept the second rounder, but Mathews looked great (apart from whole catching the ball thing).

 

[Jed]

I think Matthews will make a great RB2 because of his TD's, but that is about it.

Sproles YPC last year is tell tale and scary.

 

[moderated]

I think Matthews will make a great RB2 because of his TD's, but that is about it. Sproles YPC last year is tell tale and scary.

what sproles did last year is pretty irrelevant to what Mathews will do.Mathews advantages:1)Stronger2)Better balance3)Better vision4)just as fast - sproles ran a 4.48, mathews similar5)Much Much better between the tackles6)a lot biggerSproles is quicker, but that is the only thing he has an advantage over Mathews at.In other words Sproles YPC doesn't really give us any insight into what Mathews will do as they are completely different and Mathews has advantages in pretty much every category that is important to a RB.

 

[Jed]

I think Matthews will make a great RB2 because of his TD's, but that is about it. Sproles YPC last year is tell tale and scary.

what sproles did last year is pretty irrelevant to what Mathews will do.Mathews advantages:1)Stronger2)Better balance3)Better vision4)just as fast - sproles ran a 4.48, mathews similar5)Much Much better between the tackles6)a lot biggerSproles is quicker, but that is the only thing he has an advantage over Mathews at.In other words Sproles YPC doesn't really give us any insight into what Mathews will do as they are completely different and Mathews has advantages in pretty much every category that is important to a RB.

I think it's relevant when you compare it to 2008. Sproles 2008: 5.4 YPCSproles 2009: 3.7 YPCI think that is significant, and indicative of an offensive line breakdown.

 

[DansRams]

Lets look at Multiple Scores contribution since he is one of such a high IQ.

"When people say Sproles is there to steal touches it makes me laugh. Teams main RB who have to worry more about touches being "stolen" where the main back will get less/same opportunities as Mathews - "

Minor point as the people talking about Sproles are only really stating that Sproles will limit Mathews receptions...hard to argue. Of course he has to add the "makes me laugh" because he seems to need to attack people..probably to make up for his insecurity due to limited contribution...as we will see.

Anytime someone calls someone "Chief" on the internet they're looking for a fight, for some reason I always get a chuckle.

Way to add value

You say it's "IMO" but it doesn't cut the mustard when fact checking. I think Hightower sucks, that is IMO. If you read your quote there is no "IMO", the FACTS are that Hightower gets more carries, period, it's not an opinion, it's a fact and it's a fact coming from someone who thinks Sproles is much better. Perhaps what you're really saying is that now the Chargers downgraded at RB from LT to Mathews and now Sproles gets an increased role, if that's what your saying then I am speechless.

More great contributing info...and of course another personal attack

After reading the thread, I have come to the conclusion that some people (the hard core anti Mathews group) just enjoy arguing for the sake of arguing. Some guys say things that they pull out of their back ends and proceed to get owned by somebody stating facts or correcting their twisted/manipulated numbers/stats/etc; Then those same people say, "Well, now THIS is the new issue" and get owned again, rinse and repeat. The Shark Pool is a cool place but some people do their best to keep stupid arguments to keep going on by twisting/manipulating/fabricating, it's pretty silly and transparent. When you lose an debate then just admit it, don't keep changing to new and weaker debates that have no facts supporting the claim.

boy we all sure can benfit from this ...and of course another attack

According to what I bolded, if I add 1 + 1 = 2

Therefore you are saying LT>Mathews

Interesting take, you might be alone in this thought process.

I can't imagine how our fanatsy season could have survived without this major contribution

Post 183 is hysterical. I am not sure if it continues on -

A. Thursday night Cage Fight

B. After Dark on Cinemax

Cast your vote

How about that one...with that info we are all SURE to win our leagues now!!!

I swear you remind me of an owner in my league. He makes a pitch for a player of mine and will talk up his player and have all these great points about a player and then he will say everything bad he can about my player.

Example -

He tries to trade me Donald Brown because - He has Peyton Manning who is reliable and stable which benefits Brown, the Colts used to have a great run game, Addai is horrible, Brown was getting used to the game last year, he came from a good college program, he has good WR/TE on the team that will free up 8 man fronts and make them willing to run a lot, defense gets lots of turnovers/good field position which leads to scoring opportunities. Their Oline underperformed last year due to injuries/changes on the line but are a solid unit.

then my guy

He wants to get Ryan Mathews prior to V. Jax/McNeil issue. He tells me Rivers is too good and puts up lots of passing yards which hurts Mathews, LT made the running game good, Sproles is a great part of the running game, his college played bad competition, He has good WR/TE so that means they will pass in the red zone and abandon the run, the defense gets turnovers/field position which leads to less yards to run the field. Their Oline underperformed last year but injuries/changes on the line are not important, they are just a bad line.

It's funny how distorted people get when pushing their agenda or trying to prove their point.

Another attack...and this contributes how???

gianmarco 35

EBF 17

Balco 17

Raiderfan32904 14

David Yudkin 10

benson_will_lead_the_way 9

DansRams 9

Maurile Tremblay 8

Alex P Keaton 8

Take out the bolded and then the discussion is fathomable. With the bolded involved my IQ has dropped 8 points, barely hanging onto genius at this point.

Seriously though, the board credibility of these 4 has really suffered due to this so called "debate/discussion" and for the most part I have seen quite a bit of trolling from all four.

And since he had contributed SOOO much he decides he is in a position to post this??? Dude...get a life. Go suck on Mommy's ### or something, because you obviously didn't get enough as a child.

 

[VaTerp]

Lets look at Multiple Scores contribution since he is one of such a high IQ.

"When people say Sproles is there to steal touches it makes me laugh. Teams main RB who have to worry more about touches being "stolen" where the main back will get less/same opportunities as Mathews - "

Minor point as the people talking about Sproles are only really stating that Sproles will limit Mathews receptions...hard to argue. Of course he has to add the "makes me laugh" because he seems to need to attack people..probably to make up for his insecurity due to limited contribution...as we will see.

Anytime someone calls someone "Chief" on the internet they're looking for a fight, for some reason I always get a chuckle.

Way to add value

You say it's "IMO" but it doesn't cut the mustard when fact checking. I think Hightower sucks, that is IMO. If you read your quote there is no "IMO", the FACTS are that Hightower gets more carries, period, it's not an opinion, it's a fact and it's a fact coming from someone who thinks Sproles is much better. Perhaps what you're really saying is that now the Chargers downgraded at RB from LT to Mathews and now Sproles gets an increased role, if that's what your saying then I am speechless.

More great contributing info...and of course another personal attack

After reading the thread, I have come to the conclusion that some people (the hard core anti Mathews group) just enjoy arguing for the sake of arguing. Some guys say things that they pull out of their back ends and proceed to get owned by somebody stating facts or correcting their twisted/manipulated numbers/stats/etc; Then those same people say, "Well, now THIS is the new issue" and get owned again, rinse and repeat. The Shark Pool is a cool place but some people do their best to keep stupid arguments to keep going on by twisting/manipulating/fabricating, it's pretty silly and transparent. When you lose an debate then just admit it, don't keep changing to new and weaker debates that have no facts supporting the claim.

boy we all sure can benfit from this ...and of course another attack

According to what I bolded, if I add 1 + 1 = 2

Therefore you are saying LT>Mathews

Interesting take, you might be alone in this thought process.

I can't imagine how our fanatsy season could have survived without this major contribution

Post 183 is hysterical. I am not sure if it continues on -

A. Thursday night Cage Fight

B. After Dark on Cinemax

Cast your vote

How about that one...with that info we are all SURE to win our leagues now!!!

I swear you remind me of an owner in my league. He makes a pitch for a player of mine and will talk up his player and have all these great points about a player and then he will say everything bad he can about my player.

Example -

He tries to trade me Donald Brown because - He has Peyton Manning who is reliable and stable which benefits Brown, the Colts used to have a great run game, Addai is horrible, Brown was getting used to the game last year, he came from a good college program, he has good WR/TE on the team that will free up 8 man fronts and make them willing to run a lot, defense gets lots of turnovers/good field position which leads to scoring opportunities. Their Oline underperformed last year due to injuries/changes on the line but are a solid unit.

then my guy

He wants to get Ryan Mathews prior to V. Jax/McNeil issue. He tells me Rivers is too good and puts up lots of passing yards which hurts Mathews, LT made the running game good, Sproles is a great part of the running game, his college played bad competition, He has good WR/TE so that means they will pass in the red zone and abandon the run, the defense gets turnovers/field position which leads to less yards to run the field. Their Oline underperformed last year but injuries/changes on the line are not important, they are just a bad line.

It's funny how distorted people get when pushing their agenda or trying to prove their point.

Another attack...and this contributes how???

gianmarco 35

EBF 17

Balco 17

Raiderfan32904 14

David Yudkin 10

benson_will_lead_the_way 9

DansRams 9

Maurile Tremblay 8

Alex P Keaton 8

Take out the bolded and then the discussion is fathomable. With the bolded involved my IQ has dropped 8 points, barely hanging onto genius at this point.

Seriously though, the board credibility of these 4 has really suffered due to this so called "debate/discussion" and for the most part I have seen quite a bit of trolling from all four.

And since he had contributed SOOO much he decides he is in a position to post this??? Dude...get a life. Go suck on Mommy's ### or something, because you obviously didn't get enough as a child.

You go through a bunch of old posts and talk about personal attacks only to tell someone to go suck on their Mommy's whattever?Pot meet kettle. Only worse. You posted all of this to say what?

 

[DansRams]

You go through a bunch of old posts and talk about personal attacks only to tell someone to go suck on their Mommy's whattever?

Pot meet kettle. Only worse. You posted all of this to say what?

To point out what an ahole the guy is. Don't worry, I won't spend the time again. BTW..pot meet kettle does not make sense. I never attack people here. I was simply responding ONE time to a guy that attacks people almost every time he posts....and I finally got sick of it.

You on the other hand chose to stick your face in it when it had nothing to do with you...so who's worse?...

 

[VaTerp]

You go through a bunch of old posts and talk about personal attacks only to tell someone to go suck on their Mommy's whattever?

Pot meet kettle. Only worse. You posted all of this to say what?

To point out what an ahole the guy is. Don't worry, I won't spend the time again. BTW..pot meet kettle does not make sense. I never attack people here. I was simply responding ONE time to a guy that attacks people almost every time he posts....and I finally got sick of it.

You on the other hand chose to stick your face in it when it had nothing to do with you...so who's worse?...

I didn't stick my face in anything. If you want a private conversation then use the message service. You went through an old post to say a whole lot of nothing. And pot meet kettle makes perfect sense because you talk about him making personal attacks and chide him for "way to add value" and then do the exact same thing by posting something of no value and using a personal attack.

And I offered my input because I felt like it. I don't need your approval. Have a great one.

 

[DansRams]

You go through a bunch of old posts and talk about personal attacks only to tell someone to go suck on their Mommy's whattever?

Pot meet kettle. Only worse. You posted all of this to say what?

To point out what an ahole the guy is. Don't worry, I won't spend the time again. BTW..pot meet kettle does not make sense. I never attack people here. I was simply responding ONE time to a guy that attacks people almost every time he posts....and I finally got sick of it.

You on the other hand chose to stick your face in it when it had nothing to do with you...so who's worse?...

I didn't stick my face in anything. If you want a private conversation then use the message service. You went through an old post to say a whole lot of nothing. And pot meet kettle makes perfect sense because you talk about him making personal attacks and chide him for "way to add value" and then do the exact same thing by posting something of no value and using a personal attack.

And I offered my input because I felt like it. I don't need your approval. Have a great one.

Thanks for your input pot

 

[Abraham]

Ya'll be cool please. Tia. Herd

 

[VaTerp]

Ya'll be cool please. Tia. Herd

Understood. I'm cool. I just didn't see the point of going through week old post to tell someone to "go suck on their Mommy's ###" and add nothing to the discussion.But I'll let the mods do their job. FWIW I'll repeat my statement that the top rated rookie RB in my league has averaged right around RB12 over the last 5 years. I think Matthews easily tops 1000 yards and finishes top 10.

 

[DansRams]

Ya'll be cool please. Tia. Herd

I'm cool...<without all the extra comentary>....you won't see that from me again

 

[footballsavvy]

As far as the last part goes, I don't have enough data to know if Mathews were to be more efficient than he would score many more TDs than LT did. For example, let's say the Chargers on several occasions gave Tomlinson the ball three times in a row say at the two yard line and he finally pounded it into the endzone. Now let's say Mathews was able to get in in one try or sometimes two. Both guys would have gotten TDs, it took Mathews fewer attempts, but that wouldn't mean the Chargers had more trips to the goal line.We also don't know if the Chargers opted to run the ball more frequently deep in enemy territory because they had LT. I'm not saying they won't give Mathews the ball at the goal line or that he can't get in the endzone, but maybe they will change their play calling more and call a few more passing plays.Long story short, we don't know how the loss of LT and the addition of Mathews will impact the Chargers. The assumption is that they do everything the same and substitute Tomlinson for Mathews. But they could very well augment what they do and their offensive plan anywhere from a little to a lot and all points in between. I agree that it's unlikely that suddently the Chargers would scrap red zone rushing attempts, but I could see them throwing for more TDs to Gates or receivers (not a ton more but some more).My overall take on Mathews was not so much that he won't do well but more the cost to acquire hime (basicallay a Top 10 to Top 15 overall pick or so in a redraft).

Yudkin, I agree wholeheartedly with the points you have raised.To project Matthews to be a top 15 pick without taking his first NFL snap is crazy. But that is what people will do based on "conservative" projections of some folks. What do we know about Matthews? He was apparently a small school stud with injury history, who runs in an upright style. The game tape and measurables are good enough for some to think he will be a plug and play guy, with double digit TD's a baseline. The 2010 Chargers aren't the 2009 Chargers. So much could, and I believe will change. The defense has regressed, so P. Rivers will need to use his elite talent to keep his team in games, which means more passing. The red zone philosophy could also change as you suggested. LT2 was legendary for his "nose for the goal". What if after a few failed goalline conversions, Norv has seen enough and tries to force it into Gates at the goalline as a reaction to Matthews not getting the TD's? What if Matthews turns out to be a good between the 20's runner, but needs to be subbed out in the RZ? What if he fumbles the ball at an inopportune time or too much in general? Will he be relegated to complimentary back while they look for a back that can get it done?Again, there are too many variables, too many unknowns to spend a top pick on a rookie back with arguably the worst OL. His current ADP is based on the past success of the Chargers and I feel is irrelevant to his draft status. Certainly later on begiining in the 3rd, he has some value. I said the same for Moreno last year, who had a decent year for a rookie with expected ups and downs. Matthews will have the same learning curve, and you have to consider if you want to tough it out with him as your RB1, while he makes his way. In redraft, who of us has the patience?

I swear you remind me of an owner in my league. He makes a pitch for a player of mine and will talk up his player and have all these great points about a player and then he will say everything bad he can about my player.Example -He tries to trade me Donald Brown because - He has Peyton Manning who is reliable and stable which benefits Brown, the Colts used to have a great run game, Addai is horrible, Brown was getting used to the game last year, he came from a good college program, he has good WR/TE on the team that will free up 8 man fronts and make them willing to run a lot, defense gets lots of turnovers/good field position which leads to scoring opportunities. Their Oline underperformed last year due to injuries/changes on the line but are a solid unit.then my guyHe wants to get Ryan Mathews prior to V. Jax/McNeil issue. He tells me Rivers is too good and puts up lots of passing yards which hurts Mathews, LT made the running game good, Sproles is a great part of the running game, his college played bad competition, He has good WR/TE so that means they will pass in the red zone and abandon the run, the defense gets turnovers/field position which leads to less yards to run the field. Their Oline underperformed last year but injuries/changes on the line are not important, they are just a bad line.It's funny how distorted people get when pushing their agenda or trying to prove their point.

Do him a favor as a friend and reject the trade, obviously he would have been giving up the better player. And you'd have been taking advantage... Be a good friend.. lol

Brown > Matthews? At least Matthews leaves a little to the imagination.Also, I love when people talk down the guy they are asking for in a trade. "I want Player A, and here's why he sucks and you don't want him."

 

[footballsavvy]

I think Matthews will make a great RB2 because of his TD's, but that is about it. Sproles YPC last year is tell tale and scary.

what sproles did last year is pretty irrelevant to what Mathews will do.Mathews advantages:1)Stronger2)Better balance3)Better vision4)just as fast - sproles ran a 4.48, mathews similar5)Much Much better between the tackles6)a lot biggerSproles is quicker, but that is the only thing he has an advantage over Mathews at.In other words Sproles YPC doesn't really give us any insight into what Mathews will do as they are completely different and Mathews has advantages in pretty much every category that is important to a RB.

I think it's relevant when you compare it to 2008. Sproles 2008: 5.4 YPCSproles 2009: 3.7 YPCI think that is significant, and indicative of an offensive line breakdown.

I agree to an extent. However, many 3rd down backs sport high YPC averages the lower their number of carries. His carries went up by more than 30% so it was expected that his YPC should drop. Should it have dropped as much as it did? Who knows? Its tough to tell how good of a RB a player is on 60 carries. There's a very good chance that Sproles is not a very good 90+ carry RB at all.The most likely situation is that Sproles' increased carries, combined with a decrease in o-line performance, slumped his YPC. It's not a stretch to think that Matthews is significantly better than Sproles and LTv2009. What does that mean in terms of projections? Probably something better than 3.3 YPC, but no one knows if it will be 3.5, 4.0, 4.5 or higher.... hence the length of this thread.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I think Matthews will make a great RB2 because of his TD's, but that is about it.

Sproles YPC last year is tell tale and scary.

what sproles did last year is pretty irrelevant to what Mathews will do.Mathews advantages:

1)Stronger

2)Better balance

3)Better vision

4)just as fast - sproles ran a 4.48, mathews similar

5)Much Much better between the tackles

6)a lot bigger

Sproles is quicker, but that is the only thing he has an advantage over Mathews at.

In other words Sproles YPC doesn't really give us any insight into what Mathews will do as they are completely different and Mathews has advantages in pretty much every category that is important to a RB.

I think it's relevant when you compare it to 2008. Sproles 2008: 5.4 YPC

Sproles 2009: 3.7 YPC

I think that is significant, and indicative of an offensive line breakdown.

I agree to an extent. However, many 3rd down backs sport high YPC averages the lower their number of carries. His carries went up by more than 30% so it was expected that his YPC should drop. Should it have dropped as much as it did? Who knows? Its tough to tell how good of a RB a player is on 60 carries. There's a very good chance that Sproles is not a very good 90+ carry RB at all.The most likely situation is that Sproles' increased carries, combined with a decrease in o-line performance, slumped his YPC. It's not a stretch to think that Matthews is significantly better than Sproles and LTv2009. What does that mean in terms of projections? Probably something better than 3.3 YPC, but no one knows if it will be 3.5, 4.0, 4.5 or higher.... hence the length of this thread.

Exactly how I was going to respond..

 

[Tanner9919]

Mathews has a much easier schedule in his favor this year. Instead of the facing the AFC North the Chargers get the AFC South and instead of the NFC East they get the NFC West. He might have a couple of huge rushing games against the likes of the Rams, Jags or Seahawks not to mention his AFC West defenses that they face every year. I don't know if they could create a better schedule for a running back if they tried.

great post! you've hit the nail on the head..people can debate all season long as to whether or not RM is going to develop into a top RB or if he's just a big guy in pads, but the two most important factors that seem to be overlooked are what you've just said in regards to scheduling, and the other is Norv Turner - the guy might not be the best HC, but he's a very,very good play calling OC who knows how to create productive running games with almost any RB -the list is just staggering.he's created top running games everywhere he's coached.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think Matthews will make a great RB2 because of his TD's, but that is about it.

Sproles YPC last year is tell tale and scary.

what sproles did last year is pretty irrelevant to what Mathews will do.Mathews advantages:

1)Stronger

2)Better balance

3)Better vision

4)just as fast - sproles ran a 4.48, mathews similar

5)Much Much better between the tackles

6)a lot bigger

Sproles is quicker, but that is the only thing he has an advantage over Mathews at.

In other words Sproles YPC doesn't really give us any insight into what Mathews will do as they are completely different and Mathews has advantages in pretty much every category that is important to a RB.

I think it's relevant when you compare it to 2008. Sproles 2008: 5.4 YPC

Sproles 2009: 3.7 YPC

I think that is significant, and indicative of an offensive line breakdown.

I agree to an extent. However, many 3rd down backs sport high YPC averages the lower their number of carries. His carries went up by more than 30% so it was expected that his YPC should drop. Should it have dropped as much as it did? Who knows? Its tough to tell how good of a RB a player is on 60 carries. There's a very good chance that Sproles is not a very good 90+ carry RB at all.The most likely situation is that Sproles' increased carries, combined with a decrease in o-line performance, slumped his YPC. It's not a stretch to think that Matthews is significantly better than Sproles and LTv2009. What does that mean in terms of projections? Probably something better than 3.3 YPC, but no one knows if it will be 3.5, 4.0, 4.5 or higher.... hence the length of this thread.

Exactly how I was going to respond..

As I mentioned earlier . . .The Chargers as a full team ranked last in the league in ypc. The Chargers EXCLUDING Tomlinson's carries ranked last in the league in ypc. People have been dancing around this fact all thread. LT was too old and banged up. Sproles had more carries. Things will be WAY different this year with Mathews, etc.

Adding a younger back COULD make a difference, but that alone likely will not get the Chargers back to the running game they had several years ago. I've seena couple places suggesting Mathews will be a Top 3-5 RB this year. I think that's wishful thinking.

 

[Tau837]

As I mentioned earlier . . .The Chargers as a full team ranked last in the league in ypc. The Chargers EXCLUDING Tomlinson's carries ranked last in the league in ypc. People have been dancing around this fact all thread. LT was too old and banged up. Sproles had more carries. Things will be WAY different this year with Mathews, etc.Adding a younger back COULD make a difference, but that alone likely will not get the Chargers back to the running game they had several years ago. I've seena couple places suggesting Mathews will be a Top 3-5 RB this year. I think that's wishful thinking.

I think we need to reset the issues being discussed in this thread.Correct me if I am wrong, but I'm pretty confident that no one in this thread is arguing that Matthews will be a top 5 RB. So I'm not sure you have anyone to argue with on that point.There have generally been two issues debated here. First, will Matthews get 1000 yards rushing? I think the answer is yes, barring injury. And I think that has been the general consensus, with even gian who started the thread to say he won't get 1000 projecting him to be very close. Are you attempting to argue that issue?The other issue is where he should be ranked. The debate on that front has essentially been whether he ranks towards the bottom of the top 10 or somewhere closer to 15th, give or take. I think he fits comfortably in that range, and there probably isn't much difference in that range. For example, Dodds currently has ~20 points separating RB8 and RB16. Do you disagree that Matthews fits in that range? If you don't, then there is really no debate here. If you do, I'd like to see your projections for him.Yes, the team ypc has been duly noted throughout the thread, as well as the individual ypc for each RB... as have various reasons to expect it to be better this season. So what? In and of itself, that does not address either of the issues being debated here.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

The Chargers as a full team ranked last in the league in ypc. The Chargers EXCLUDING Tomlinson's carries ranked last in the league in ypc. People have been dancing around this fact all thread. LT was too old and banged up. Sproles had more carries. Things will be WAY different this year with Mathews, etc.

Adding a younger back COULD make a difference, but that alone likely will not get the Chargers back to the running game they had several years ago. I've seena couple places suggesting Mathews will be a Top 3-5 RB this year. I think that's wishful thinking.

Your arguement is kinda like a moving target..

"He won't be getting 1k yards"

"He won't be getting double dig TD's"

"He won't get 4.0 YPC"

"people are calling him a first rounder"

"people are calling him a first rounder in redraft leagues"

....etc

And now:

"I've seena couple places suggesting Mathews will be a Top 3-5 RB this year"

I don't think you believe all of this but as the discussion has progressed I think you may be changing your mind a bit and so changing your argument. Eventually it'll be "(un-named person) say's he should be the #1 RB this years, I just disagree"... well of course if the bar keeps moving up you'll be right at some point.

Matthews seems to be a solid second round talent in any league. And I can see arguments for drafting him in the first round of Dynasty leagues.

Floor-Ceiling range:

230-280 carries

3.6-4.6 YPC

828-1288 yards

8-14 TD's

25-35 rec

7-8 YPR

175-280 yards

2-4 TD's

No less than 1k total yards, no less than 10 total TD's... That seems pretty safe bet. High floor, Nice ceiling...

Do you disagree with that? Seems to be a nice bet on safe #'s. Definitely worth a pick in the first 2 rounds.

Yudkin, please choose and clearly restate your position. Where should he be drafted? And give us a floor/ceiling projection...

 

[footballsavvy]

I think it's relevant when you compare it to 2008.

Sproles 2008: 5.4 YPC

Sproles 2009: 3.7 YPC

I think that is significant, and indicative of an offensive line breakdown.

I agree to an extent. However, many 3rd down backs sport high YPC averages the lower their number of carries. His carries went up by more than 30% so it was expected that his YPC should drop. Should it have dropped as much as it did? Who knows? Its tough to tell how good of a RB a player is on 60 carries. There's a very good chance that Sproles is not a very good 90+ carry RB at all.The most likely situation is that Sproles' increased carries, combined with a decrease in o-line performance, slumped his YPC. It's not a stretch to think that Matthews is significantly better than Sproles and LTv2009. What does that mean in terms of projections? Probably something better than 3.3 YPC, but no one knows if it will be 3.5, 4.0, 4.5 or higher.... hence the length of this thread.

Exactly how I was going to respond..

As I mentioned earlier . . .The Chargers as a full team ranked last in the league in ypc. The Chargers EXCLUDING Tomlinson's carries ranked last in the league in ypc. People have been dancing around this fact all thread. LT was too old and banged up. Sproles had more carries. Things will be WAY different this year with Mathews, etc.

Adding a younger back COULD make a difference, but that alone likely will not get the Chargers back to the running game they had several years ago. I've seena couple places suggesting Mathews will be a Top 3-5 RB this year. I think that's wishful thinking.

You keep saying this as if there was an army of 20 Charger's running backs that all averaged 3.3 YPC. It was just Sproles and LT. If Matthews is significantly better than both of them, then there's a solid chance their running game will improve, even if the o-line remains the same. That said, even if their o-line was the worst in the NFL your argument doens't hold that much water. The basic laws of regression dictate that there is an extremely high probability of their o-line being better than it was last season. So more than likely you have a RB coming in that is better than both Sproles and LT, and you have an o-line that statistically should improve over last season's performance.

The only question is, how much higher than 3.3 YPC will their rush average be?

 

[David Yudkin]

The Chargers as a full team ranked last in the league in ypc. The Chargers EXCLUDING Tomlinson's carries ranked last in the league in ypc. People have been dancing around this fact all thread. LT was too old and banged up. Sproles had more carries. Things will be WAY different this year with Mathews, etc.

Adding a younger back COULD make a difference, but that alone likely will not get the Chargers back to the running game they had several years ago. I've seena couple places suggesting Mathews will be a Top 3-5 RB this year. I think that's wishful thinking.

Your arguement is kinda like a moving target..

"He won't be getting 1k yards"

"He won't be getting double dig TD's"

"He won't get 4.0 YPC"

"people are calling him a first rounder"

"people are calling him a first rounder in redraft leagues"

....etc

And now:

"I've seena couple places suggesting Mathews will be a Top 3-5 RB this year"

I don't think you believe all of this but as the discussion has progressed I think you may be changing your mind a bit and so changing your argument. Eventually it'll be "(un-named person) say's he should be the #1 RB this years, I just disagree"... well of course if the bar keeps moving up you'll be right at some point.

Matthews seems to be a solid second round talent in any league. And I can see arguments for drafting him in the first round of Dynasty leagues.

Floor-Ceiling range:

230-280 carries

3.6-4.6 YPC

828-1288 yards

8-14 TD's

25-35 rec

7-8 YPR

175-280 yards

2-4 TD's

No less than 1k total yards, no less than 10 total TD's... That seems pretty safe bet. High floor, Nice ceiling...

Do you disagree with that? Seems to be a nice bet on safe #'s. Definitely worth a pick in the first 2 rounds.

Yudkin, please choose and clearly restate your position. Where should he be drafted? Give a floor and a ceiling...

I haven't changed my mind on anything and generally was not all that interested in Mathews for me personally as I would not draft a rookie RB in the spot it will take to get him in a redraft league for all the reasons I enumerated. I was browsing one of the fantasy mags yesterday in the store and they had Mathews as their #4 back (can't remember which publication).Not having LT could dramatically impact what the Chargers do on offense. It's nice to think that Mathews will take over for Tomlinson and produce what he did in the past couple of years and layer some production on top of that because he should be younger and therefore better. But here are some examples where things didn't go according to plan . . .

Troy Hambrick replaced Emmitt Smith and put up 975/5 rushing.

Greg Hill took over for Barry Sanders and produced 542/2.

Leon Washington became the starter after Curtis Martin retired to the tune of 650/4.

Corey Dillon left the Pats and Laurence Maroney put up 835/6.

Brandon Jacobs took over for Tiki Barber and generated 1004/4.

Julius Jones took over for Shaun Alexander and had 698/2.

Again, I am not saying Mathews won't do well, I just question making him potentially one of the highest/earliest drafted rookie RB fantasy wise ever (he's certainly up there).

As for his projection range, it really depends on how broad a range individuals get into their projections. I could see Mathews struggling in blitz pickup and blocking, the OL still having issues and not creating holes, the Chargers further evolving into a passing team, Mathews getting a nagging injury that limits him for a few weeks, Tolbert stealing some GL chances, and Sproles getting the RB receptions, . In that case I could see 175-685-6 to go with 15-115-0. Unlikely, but still yet possible.

On a high side, I suppose he could do gangbusters and get 300-1250-14 and 40-300-1 if everything clicked just right. There have been 7 rookie RB that have hit 1500 yfs/15 total TD. So yes, theoretically it's possible for a rookie to hit those lofty totals.

If I were to guess a more realistic outcome, it would be 225-880-8 with 20-150-0. That would net Mathews around 150 fantasy points and would rank him around the RB 20-25 range at the end of the year. I could be WAYYYYYYYYYYY off here, but that's what I would expect from him as a rookie.

Ronnie Brown had 207-907-4/32-232-1 and we know how Cedric Benson, Darren McFadden, William Green, and some other highly touted rookies have done. Yes, Mathews is in a good spot in that he will be starting from Day 1. Still too much risk for my blood.

 

[steelcityman]

I am not going to break 1000 yards receiving this year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Not that it's a huge sample size, but SD had Sproles-Tolbert-Bennett-and Hester combine for 162 carries last year. It's not like they only had a combined 42 carries . . .

 

[CBower4545]

Thanks, Gianmarco. Despite some of the hostility, this has been a really good discussion.

 

[Tau837]

Not that it's a huge sample size, but SD had Sproles-Tolbert-Bennett-and Hester combine for 162 carries last year. It's not like they only had a combined 42 carries . . .

Yes, and LT had 223 carries in 13 games. What is your point? Unless you are projecting that Matthews will miss multiple games for whatever reason and/or are projecting that Matthews will play poorly enough to lose carries, IMO there is no doubt that he will surpass LT's number of carries in 2009.Again, it isn't clear what you are arguing with this post. Are you arguing against the notion that he will have 300+ carries or something similar? I would agree with that, but I haven't seen many (any?) arguing that he will have 300+ carries in this thread.

 

[Tau837]

here are some examples where things didn't go according to plan . . .Troy Hambrick replaced Emmitt Smith and put up 975/5 rushing.Greg Hill took over for Barry Sanders and produced 542/2.Leon Washington became the starter after Curtis Martin retired to the tune of 650/4.Corey Dillon left the Pats and Laurence Maroney put up 835/6.Brandon Jacobs took over for Tiki Barber and generated 1004/4.Julius Jones took over for Shaun Alexander and had 698/2.Again, I am not saying Mathews won't do well, I just question making him potentially one of the highest/earliest drafted rookie RB fantasy wise ever (he's certainly up there).

Are you really suggesting that you think these situations are comparable? They are all over the map and are generally not comparable for a variety of reasons.

 

[David Yudkin]

here are some examples where things didn't go according to plan . . .Troy Hambrick replaced Emmitt Smith and put up 975/5 rushing.Greg Hill took over for Barry Sanders and produced 542/2.Leon Washington became the starter after Curtis Martin retired to the tune of 650/4.Corey Dillon left the Pats and Laurence Maroney put up 835/6.Brandon Jacobs took over for Tiki Barber and generated 1004/4.Julius Jones took over for Shaun Alexander and had 698/2.Again, I am not saying Mathews won't do well, I just question making him potentially one of the highest/earliest drafted rookie RB fantasy wise ever (he's certainly up there).

Are you really suggesting that you think these situations are comparable? They are all over the map and are generally not comparable for a variety of reasons.

There are no great apples to apples comparisons where a sure fire HOFer leaves and is replaced by a first round pick on a team that has evolved into a passing team and ranked last in the league in ypc. So the only options are to look at cases that were somewhat similar and try to make an educated guess. Yes, I understand the cases I listed were not exactly the same (and in some cases not really great examples), but the point was that things don't always transfer over from one back to the next.As for how much of a lock Mathews is to get 250 carries, there were 10 backs that had that many last year. It sounds easy enough to do . . .

 

[Tau837]

There are no great apples to apples comparisons where a sure fire HOFer leaves and is replaced by a first round pick on a team...

It's not about replacing a HOFer. It's about replacing a lousy RB. That's what Tomlinson was last year.IMO you are projecting unnecessary complexity on the situation. Here's what it boils down to:1. Talent - check2. Opportunity - checkIt's as simple as that.

As for how much of a lock Mathews is to get 250 carries, there were 10 backs that had that many last year. It sounds easy enough to do . . .

IMO this is outweighed by:1. The track record of Norv Turner.2. The lack of viable alternatives on the Chargers roster.3. Matthews taking over LT's role (LT got 223 carries in 13 games last year, which projects above 250 carries over 16 games)

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

. . . but the point was that things don't always transfer over from one back to the next.

I think that's what the Chargers are hoping for.

 

[Tau837]

. . . but the point was that things don't always transfer over from one back to the next.

I think that's what the Chargers are hoping for.

 

[moderated]

:(

 

[Raider Nation]

This is the very first time I have even come into this thread. Mainly because every time I saw the title, I rolled my eyes and laughed.

But I gotta give props. 1/4 into the season, he's on pace for 624 yards rushing, he's banged up and he's losing major carries to Tolbert.

Nice call so far.

 

[ceo3west]

Fade Yudkin at your own risk