These well thought arguments are why I love this place.I just think that Greene may be a bit more valuable than you see him SSOG. You are smarter than me. So could you actually play devil's advocate and compare him to a few players who came in and did much better than expected?In my mind, I see him as a faster/better version of Rudi Johnson. Am I the only one who saw him running for 10 yards a pop literally dragging guys behind him? It looked kind of like LT's prime when he was dragging those guys....Edit to add - I mean players YOU thought and maybe argued would be less valuable then were surprised with. I ask this only because I think many are seeing Greene as a 300 carry 1200 yard RB with at least 10 TD's a year. A very solid guy for some years to come. A guy I love to have as my weekly starter to go behind MJD or AP etc.
For what it's worth, I've tried to avoid giving any takes on Greene's ABSOLUTE value (i.e. where I have him ranked), sticking just to his RELATIVE value (i.e. where I have him ranked compared to Mathews and Wells). I mean, I could technically have Greene at #3 in my rankings and I'd still prefer Mathews and Wells if they were #1 and #2.With that said, you're right that I'm relatively cool on Greene. I'm not super-impressed with his body of work last year (hell, even Marcel Shipp has ended a season on a hot streak), and I don't think he's an elite talent. I think Rudi Johnson is an interesting comp because Rudi is pretty much the poster child for a mediocre talent who put up great numbers on the strength of his situation. Of course, Rudi was one of the lucky ones. Guys like Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith, and Marshawn Lynch (all guys who were at one point in time considered top-12 to top-15 dynasty backs) clearly demonstrate the two primary risks associated with mediocre talents- either the situation worsens, or the team brings in competition. A highly talented back can beat out any competition the team brings in and can still produce in sub-par situations. A mediocre talent, on the other hand, can't weather either of those two storms. Their value is much more prone to just disappearing with little-to-no warning.
This entire thread has been a pissing match between Beanie fans and Greene fans - so question for both groups: Why isn't Ryan Mathews 3rd here? Once you get past the cliches of "Chargers" and "Norv Turner RB", is this a super talented RB we have here? He was drafted high but some folks believe he was a reach at 12. I'll admit to not having seen too much of Fresno games and clips, but of the little bit I have seen of Mathews, he didn't exactly jump off of the screen. Not understanding why he's considered a better dynasty bet than either Beanie or Greene.
My default position is always "paid professionals in the NFL know more than I do". There is sometimes evidence that can get me to move from my default position, but I operate under a general "when in doubt, assume the professionals know what they are doing" philosophy. As a result, the fact that Mathews was the #12 pick (higher pedigree than either of the others) is very telling to me. It means that an NFL GM (and one who has been praised for his drafting acumen for years) thinks that Mathews is the best talent of the bunch, and was willing to trade a king's ransom to get him despite RB being the most fungible position on the field. That earns him a whole lot of the benefit of the doubt.
I see both sides to this issue... But, am starting to come around to the situation aspect a bit more. SSOG - remember your post a day or two ago about Lee Evans and his situation?
I think you missed the point of that post- it wasn't about Evans situation at all. I thought his situation was likely to improve, but the real reason his numbers haven't been better is because, relatively speaking, he wasn't the talent that I thought he was. I was rating him as if he was a top-10, possibly even top-5 WR, when in reality he was just a top-20 or top-15 WR. The fact that his situation hasn't improved is unfortunate, but the "bad process" came in the talent evaluation.
I dont think that is the basis for making a decision on moving a player.I think it's more likely the situation your team is in as a whole. If I am a contender today, Gore is more valuable on my roster than elsewhere. If it takes 2-3 years of rebuilding before my team is competitive, I make note of the hard miles on the Odometer for Gore and I dont build around Gore, I trade him away to restock the shelves.In this case, all 3 of the young RB's discussed above are young enough that you can build a fantasy team around them. but you must measure upside & risk.of the three, Green bears the least amount of risk because he has shown he can produce at a high level in the NFL. Neither of the other 2 RB's in question have done so yet, but I will make note that Wells has shown signs that he may be on the cusp of a breakout season playing for a team that is likely moving from a passing offense to a more balanced attack. So Beanie will likely get more work than last year. anyhow, your arguement that Green is to be avoided because he is 25 means nothing to me. I start to worry about age when the RB hits 27 or 28 if he has a history of injury, or at 29-30 if he does not.That doesnt mean my way of looking at things is any better than yours. I think it is just that I value experience more and you value youth more.
But don't you value having the option? You might not want to move a 27 year old Gore, but you *CAN* move a 27 year old Gore. You could move him even easier if he was 25. That flexibility, that option, that ability to use him as an asset to improve your team has value. Three years from now, when Greene is 28, you won't have that option. That impacts his value, whether you want to admit it or not. I'm not saying that he's to be avoided because he's 25, I'm saying that he has less value because he's 25 than he would if he was 23. I don't know how anyone could possibly argue otherwise. If you were given a choice between two COMPLETELY IDENTICAL PLAYERS where the only difference was that one was 25 and the other was 23, wouldn't you take the one that was 23?I also question the idea that Greene carries the least risk. Why, because he had two and a half good games to end the year? Marcel Shipp once ended a season with 403/3 in three games. Was he low risk? Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and William Green all were great over small samples, but they were hardly low-risk, either. I fail to see how Shonn Green's 844 career rushing yards (and 4 career receiving yards) make him lower risk than Beanie's 793 career rushing yards and 143 career receiving yards.