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S Green, B Well, R Mathews (1 Viewer)

These well thought arguments are why I love this place.

I just think that Greene may be a bit more valuable than you see him SSOG. You are smarter than me.

So could you actually play devil's advocate and compare him to a few players who came in and did much better than expected?

In my mind, I see him as a faster/better version of Rudi Johnson. Am I the only one who saw him running for 10 yards a pop literally dragging guys behind him? It looked kind of like LT's prime when he was dragging those guys....

Edit to add - I mean players YOU thought and maybe argued would be less valuable then were surprised with. I ask this only because I think many are seeing Greene as a 300 carry 1200 yard RB with at least 10 TD's a year. A very solid guy for some years to come. A guy I love to have as my weekly starter to go behind MJD or AP etc.
LT isn't a power back never was. Bad comparison...I see a Michael Turner/Jamal Lewis(in their primes) with less speed.I just don't see him on the same talent level as Wells and Mathews(and I am a Greene owner).
LT has drug more than his fair share of guys in his prime. However, Jamal Lewis as a comparison minus the happy toes tiny steps might work...Turner would be the best example. Greene also gets to learn from Jones last year who he said taught him all he knows, and LT this year.

Could work out real well for him.

 
TitansFan10 said:
benson_will_lead_the_way said:
TitansFan10 said:
These well thought arguments are why I love this place.

I just think that Greene may be a bit more valuable than you see him SSOG. You are smarter than me.

So could you actually play devil's advocate and compare him to a few players who came in and did much better than expected?

In my mind, I see him as a faster/better version of Rudi Johnson. Am I the only one who saw him running for 10 yards a pop literally dragging guys behind him? It looked kind of like LT's prime when he was dragging those guys....

Edit to add - I mean players YOU thought and maybe argued would be less valuable then were surprised with. I ask this only because I think many are seeing Greene as a 300 carry 1200 yard RB with at least 10 TD's a year. A very solid guy for some years to come. A guy I love to have as my weekly starter to go behind MJD or AP etc.
LT isn't a power back never was. Bad comparison...I see a Michael Turner/Jamal Lewis(in their primes) with less speed.I just don't see him on the same talent level as Wells and Mathews(and I am a Greene owner).
LT has drug more than his fair share of guys in his prime. However, Jamal Lewis as a comparison minus the happy toes tiny steps might work...Turner would be the best example. Greene also gets to learn from Jones last year who he said taught him all he knows, and LT this year.

Could work out real well for him.
LT won't be doing anything besides trying to win the starting gig. LT doesn't give a rats a** about Greene whereas TJ is a cool guy and a good teammate and definitely helped greene out. calling it now, LT hurts that team more than he helps it.

 
LT won't be doing anything besides trying to win the starting gig. LT doesn't give a rats a** about Greene whereas TJ is a cool guy and a good teammate and definitely helped greene out. calling it now, LT hurts that team more than he helps it.
LT wants the ring buddy... he knows his role
 
LT won't be doing anything besides trying to win the starting gig. LT doesn't give a rats a** about Greene whereas TJ is a cool guy and a good teammate and definitely helped greene out. calling it now, LT hurts that team more than he helps it.
LT wants the ring buddy... he knows his role
Seat warmer is what it will be come week 3. LT fell off the cliff already and is a year older, the Jets would have done just as well picking up Shaun Alexander at this point, they are both well done.
 
This entire thread has been a pissing match between Beanie fans and Greene fans - so question for both groups: Why isn't Ryan Mathews 3rd here?

Once you get past the cliches of "Chargers" and "Norv Turner RB", is this a super talented RB we have here? He was drafted high but some folks believe he was a reach at 12. I'll admit to not having seen too much of Fresno games and clips, but of the little bit I have seen of Mathews, he didn't exactly jump off of the screen. Not understanding why he's considered a better dynasty bet than either Beanie or Greene.

 
MrTwo94 said:
wiscstlatlmia said:
...can someone explain to me how shonn greene is all of a sudden such a good nfl rb prospect...when he couldnt even beat out albert young at iowa.... thats a telling fact to me that he didnt even split carries with young while he was there...you guys must have loved matt forte and kevin smith too huh?...yes his situation is fantastic...but usually the cream rises to the top and greene just clearly isnt an elite player...sorry beanie and mathews the whole way here,not even close
I might be mistaken but wasn't Mendenhall unable to beat out Pierre Thomas (undrafted) and Spiller unable to beat out James Davis (6th round)? I think Marion Barber (4th) split time with Maroney (1st) and look how that turned out.Don't be the guy who overlooks a player because of where he was drafted. Didn't the Jets trade up to draft him at the top of the 3rd round? He was the 65th pick then. That's nothing to shake a stick at.I was never a Forte or Smith fan. I like Greene's situation and what he showed in the playoffs. It's a small sample size for sure. But TD's talk and he doesn't have to be that great to end up with 10+ TD in that offense. Same with Matthews. I'll be pretty surprised if Beanie ends up with 10. I forgot to add to my last post about how silly it is to just ignore situation. I think Corey Dillon is a good example. The guy was a good RB on Cincy. He actually looked like he might be done his last year there. Then he went to NE and absolutely tore it up. If he played there his whole career he'd be a HoF lock. One could say it is just an example of how situations change, but gambling on the better talent to end up in a better situation is risky. How did Edge do when he went to Arizona? It seems it would be best to stick with what you know now rather than sitting on a player you think is more talented and waiting for him to get a new contract while praying he doesn't get hurt in his current mediocre situation.
right...mendy SPLIT carries with pierre at illinois....barber SPLIT carries with maroney and spiller SPLIT carries with davis while they were there...lets first look at the fact that pierre maroney and davis are all better prospects than albert young...shonn greene did not split carries with him...he only saw the field when he was the only guy left. mendy was splitting carries his sophmore year spilller was playing significant time since his freshman year...and barber only played one year at minnesota and had 231 carries
 
This entire thread has been a pissing match between Beanie fans and Greene fans - so question for both groups: Why isn't Ryan Mathews 3rd here?
It seems most Beanie fans are operating under the theory that talent far outweighs situation, whereas most Greene fans are operating under the theory that situation is more important than they're giving credit for, even in a dynasty.As such, most people that have Beanie #1 probably have Greene #3, and vice versa, leaving Matthews smack dab in the middle for almost everyone. He's kind of a combination of the other two. Better pedigree than Greene, but not as good as Beanie. Better situation than Beanie, but not as good as Greene's.
 
This entire thread has been a pissing match between Beanie fans and Greene fans - so question for both groups: Why isn't Ryan Mathews 3rd here?
It seems most Beanie fans are operating under the theory that talent far outweighs situation, whereas most Greene fans are operating under the theory that situation is more important than they're giving credit for, even in a dynasty.As such, most people that have Beanie #1 probably have Greene #3, and vice versa, leaving Matthews smack dab in the middle for almost everyone. He's kind of a combination of the other two. Better pedigree than Greene, but not as good as Beanie. Better situation than Beanie, but not as good as Greene's.
:goodposting: agreed...i am a beanie lover ! :hifive:
 
I see both sides to this issue... But, am starting to come around to the situation aspect a bit more.

SSOG - remember your post a day or two ago about Lee Evans and his situation?

 
out of the 3 RB's I rank Green #1 of the three. he is in a great situation behind what may be one of the best O-Lines for running the ball in the league(if not THE best O-line, they are close)

Beanie is in a passing Offense in Arizona, but with the departure of boldin and Warner, may move more towards a balanced attack to keep the heat off of Leinart. Also, we have seen that beanie has shown flashes of being able to produce, but his running style may lead to some injuries (like Barber or Jacobs)

Matthews may have more long run potential, but he is in a system that is 100% committed to the pass and will lose some runs to sproles. while he may have more potential as an all around player than Beanie, I fear his development may be limited due to the system the chargers play.

With that being said, Green is the only surefire starter with potential to be a stud and a better than average chance to reach that potential.

Beanie & Matthews both still have question marks. I give the edge to Beanie over Matthews, but not by much. Beanie has better short term potential, but Matthews may be the better long term player.

 
I don't see any signs now, but if you look at other backs, it won't be surprising if Gore hits a wall in a year or two. Especially considering the extensive rehab he's gone through over the years. That has to equate to mileage on some level. I'd be willing to bet that Rice easily outscores Gore in the next 3 years. It is likely they are not in the same discussion after the next 2.
This actually illustrates SSOG's point pretty nicely. Gore is 27 years old. While his trade value is not what it once was, if you believe that Gore doesn't have 3 years left you can still move him for some pretty good value at this point in his career.Now imagine Gore is 30 instead of 27. What do you think you could get for him? Nothing.That is where Shonn Greene will be when he's at the stage of his career that Gore is at now.
 
MrTwo94 said:
wiscstlatlmia said:
...can someone explain to me how shonn greene is all of a sudden such a good nfl rb prospect...when he couldnt even beat out albert young at iowa.... thats a telling fact to me that he didnt even split carries with young while he was there...you guys must have loved matt forte and kevin smith too huh?...yes his situation is fantastic...but usually the cream rises to the top and greene just clearly isnt an elite player...sorry beanie and mathews the whole way here,not even close
I might be mistaken but wasn't Mendenhall unable to beat out Pierre Thomas (undrafted) and Spiller unable to beat out James Davis (6th round)? I think Marion Barber (4th) split time with Maroney (1st) and look how that turned out.Don't be the guy who overlooks a player because of where he was drafted. Didn't the Jets trade up to draft him at the top of the 3rd round? He was the 65th pick then. That's nothing to shake a stick at.I was never a Forte or Smith fan. I like Greene's situation and what he showed in the playoffs. It's a small sample size for sure. But TD's talk and he doesn't have to be that great to end up with 10+ TD in that offense. Same with Matthews. I'll be pretty surprised if Beanie ends up with 10. I forgot to add to my last post about how silly it is to just ignore situation. I think Corey Dillon is a good example. The guy was a good RB on Cincy. He actually looked like he might be done his last year there. Then he went to NE and absolutely tore it up. If he played there his whole career he'd be a HoF lock. One could say it is just an example of how situations change, but gambling on the better talent to end up in a better situation is risky. How did Edge do when he went to Arizona? It seems it would be best to stick with what you know now rather than sitting on a player you think is more talented and waiting for him to get a new contract while praying he doesn't get hurt in his current mediocre situation.
right...mendy SPLIT carries with pierre at illinois....barber SPLIT carries with maroney and spiller SPLIT carries with davis while they were there...lets first look at the fact that pierre maroney and davis are all better prospects than albert young...shonn greene did not split carries with him...he only saw the field when he was the only guy left. mendy was splitting carries his sophmore year spilller was playing significant time since his freshman year...and barber only played one year at minnesota and had 231 carries
I really don't know what all this talk here has to do with the topic at hand. I thought that Shonn Greene was one excellent player his last year at Iowa. He showed production and very good skills, if I recall he won the Doak Walker award, I'm not positive, I remember he was up for it and I thought he fully deserved to win that year as he was by far the best RB in the NCAA that year.
 
I don't see any signs now, but if you look at other backs, it won't be surprising if Gore hits a wall in a year or two. Especially considering the extensive rehab he's gone through over the years. That has to equate to mileage on some level. I'd be willing to bet that Rice easily outscores Gore in the next 3 years. It is likely they are not in the same discussion after the next 2.
This actually illustrates SSOG's point pretty nicely. Gore is 27 years old. While his trade value is not what it once was, if you believe that Gore doesn't have 3 years left you can still move him for some pretty good value at this point in his career.Now imagine Gore is 30 instead of 27. What do you think you could get for him? Nothing.That is where Shonn Greene will be when he's at the stage of his career that Gore is at now.
I dont think that is the basis for making a decision on moving a player.I think it's more likely the situation your team is in as a whole. If I am a contender today, Gore is more valuable on my roster than elsewhere. If it takes 2-3 years of rebuilding before my team is competitive, I make note of the hard miles on the Odometer for Gore and I dont build around Gore, I trade him away to restock the shelves.In this case, all 3 of the young RB's discussed above are young enough that you can build a fantasy team around them. but you must measure upside & risk.of the three, Green bears the least amount of risk because he has shown he can produce at a high level in the NFL. Neither of the other 2 RB's in question have done so yet, but I will make note that Wells has shown signs that he may be on the cusp of a breakout season playing for a team that is likely moving from a passing offense to a more balanced attack. So Beanie will likely get more work than last year. anyhow, your arguement that Green is to be avoided because he is 25 means nothing to me. I start to worry about age when the RB hits 27 or 28 if he has a history of injury, or at 29-30 if he does not.That doesnt mean my way of looking at things is any better than yours. I think it is just that I value experience more and you value youth more.
 
Billy Ball Thorton said:
Multiple Scores said:
Billy Ball Thorton said:
Green is a 2 down back his ceiling is top 15 and I doubt he gets there.
Thomas Jones was #5 RB in 2008 and in 2009. Explain to me how Greene has a ceiling of top 15? Was it Jones superior skills at this point or was it Jones superior pass catching?
Your correct it was "Jones superior skill" when compared to Green... Please remind me what Green has done outside a couple of nice runs in the playoffs. Im sure the Green huggers here think often about those runs when drafting him.. He was a 3rd round talent last year and I see little reason to compare him to Thomas Jones based off what we have seen.

Jets brought in LT and drafted Mcknight in the 4th rd (1 round later than Green) but yet everyone expects Green to be this workhorse that Jones a first round talent was... Make's me lol.....
Can I join your league? :thumbdown:
This Shtick is old and makes you look like a child.. Please spare us....edit to add.. Wells/Matthews in a landslide....

 
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I guess this probably deserves its own thread, but I'm surprised at how ready most posters are to discount Tim Hightower and not worry about him eating into Wells' numbers. He's carved out a valuable role in the offense as a great pass-catching back, and, most importantly, as a goal-line vulture. I do like Wells but I just don't think Hightower's going anywhere and he's going to put a ceiling on what we'll see from Wells.

I tend to think Wells is overvalued at this point whereas Greene is quite undervalued, which I never would have expected after his playoff showing. He rushed for 300+ yards in the playoffs and his team subsequently cut a 1,400 yard rusher to clearly make him the guy. Add to that the fact that they're solidly a run-first team...I get that he's not a pass catcher, but, beyond that, what's there not to like?
I agree 100%. Wells is extremely over valued. Hightower is one of the best receiving backs in the league and is extremely valuable to that football team. For some reason fantasy owners think that the coach cares more about Wells fantasy stats than about winning football games. Hightower had 63 receptions last year and he will be in there on most passing downs again this year. If he's not, then Whisenhunt is the biggest moron in the league.The only chance Wells has of beating Greene is if the Cardinals change their game plan in dramatic fashion and pound the hell out of the ball. Of course this won't work either because their defense will suck and they won't be able to sustain a run game. Don't forget they lost Dansby and Rolle. I'll be surprised if Wells have 220 carries.
Can we please slow down the THT Hall of Fame train for a few seconds and actually look at stats? Yes, THT was 2nd in the league in receptions in 2009, but he was also 2nd in the league in targets. Can we please hold off on calling him "one of the best receiving backs in the league" when he doesn't even have 100 career recptions yet? Hightower was also 21st in catch % and 51st in yards/reception among RBs in 2009. Want to know who some of the top 10 RBs in Y/rec were in 2009? (that had at least 10 receptions) - AP, CJ, Sproles, Mendy and Beanie Wells. ProfootballFocus also tracks YAC/rec - Hightower was 48th, Wells? 19th. ProFootballFocus also "grades out" RBs in various aspects of their game. Hightower graded out as the 57th best receiving RB - Wells was 18th.Also, I do find it funny that people suggest that Wells' value takes a hit because of a poor QB, but THT, the alleged "pass catching stud", his value somehow is immune - when it seems to me that at least on some level, a pass cathing RB would be more reliant on decent throws, not less.

I'll take Wells and Matthews.

 
I don't see any signs now, but if you look at other backs, it won't be surprising if Gore hits a wall in a year or two. Especially considering the extensive rehab he's gone through over the years. That has to equate to mileage on some level. I'd be willing to bet that Rice easily outscores Gore in the next 3 years. It is likely they are not in the same discussion after the next 2.
This actually illustrates SSOG's point pretty nicely. Gore is 27 years old. While his trade value is not what it once was, if you believe that Gore doesn't have 3 years left you can still move him for some pretty good value at this point in his career.Now imagine Gore is 30 instead of 27. What do you think you could get for him? Nothing.That is where Shonn Greene will be when he's at the stage of his career that Gore is at now.
I dont think that is the basis for making a decision on moving a player.I think it's more likely the situation your team is in as a whole. If I am a contender today, Gore is more valuable on my roster than elsewhere. If it takes 2-3 years of rebuilding before my team is competitive, I make note of the hard miles on the Odometer for Gore and I dont build around Gore, I trade him away to restock the shelves.In this case, all 3 of the young RB's discussed above are young enough that you can build a fantasy team around them. but you must measure upside & risk.of the three, Green bears the least amount of risk because he has shown he can produce at a high level in the NFL. Neither of the other 2 RB's in question have done so yet, but I will make note that Wells has shown signs that he may be on the cusp of a breakout season playing for a team that is likely moving from a passing offense to a more balanced attack. So Beanie will likely get more work than last year. anyhow, your arguement that Green is to be avoided because he is 25 means nothing to me. I start to worry about age when the RB hits 27 or 28 if he has a history of injury, or at 29-30 if he does not.That doesnt mean my way of looking at things is any better than yours. I think it is just that I value experience more and you value youth more.
I don't know how else to respond to this other than that you're still entirely missing the point trying to be made here.The things you're saying I'm saying, are not what I'm saying :thumbup:
 
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MrTwo94 said:
wiscstlatlmia said:
...can someone explain to me how shonn greene is all of a sudden such a good nfl rb prospect...when he couldnt even beat out albert young at iowa.... thats a telling fact to me that he didnt even split carries with young while he was there...you guys must have loved matt forte and kevin smith too huh?...yes his situation is fantastic...but usually the cream rises to the top and greene just clearly isnt an elite player...sorry beanie and mathews the whole way here,not even close
I might be mistaken but wasn't Mendenhall unable to beat out Pierre Thomas (undrafted) and Spiller unable to beat out James Davis (6th round)? I think Marion Barber (4th) split time with Maroney (1st) and look how that turned out.Don't be the guy who overlooks a player because of where he was drafted. Didn't the Jets trade up to draft him at the top of the 3rd round? He was the 65th pick then. That's nothing to shake a stick at.I was never a Forte or Smith fan. I like Greene's situation and what he showed in the playoffs. It's a small sample size for sure. But TD's talk and he doesn't have to be that great to end up with 10+ TD in that offense. Same with Matthews. I'll be pretty surprised if Beanie ends up with 10. I forgot to add to my last post about how silly it is to just ignore situation. I think Corey Dillon is a good example. The guy was a good RB on Cincy. He actually looked like he might be done his last year there. Then he went to NE and absolutely tore it up. If he played there his whole career he'd be a HoF lock. One could say it is just an example of how situations change, but gambling on the better talent to end up in a better situation is risky. How did Edge do when he went to Arizona? It seems it would be best to stick with what you know now rather than sitting on a player you think is more talented and waiting for him to get a new contract while praying he doesn't get hurt in his current mediocre situation.
right...mendy SPLIT carries with pierre at illinois....barber SPLIT carries with maroney and spiller SPLIT carries with davis while they were there...lets first look at the fact that pierre maroney and davis are all better prospects than albert young...shonn greene did not split carries with him...he only saw the field when he was the only guy left. mendy was splitting carries his sophmore year spilller was playing significant time since his freshman year...and barber only played one year at minnesota and had 231 carries
I really don't know what all this talk here has to do with the topic at hand. I thought that Shonn Greene was one excellent player his last year at Iowa. He showed production and very good skills, if I recall he won the Doak Walker award, I'm not positive, I remember he was up for it and I thought he fully deserved to win that year as he was by far the best RB in the NCAA that year.
lol...yea it was between him and javon ringer ...and greene didnt get any carries till his senior year, i was making the point that he must not be a very good talent if he couldnt beat out albert young for the starting job.
 
I don't see any signs now, but if you look at other backs, it won't be surprising if Gore hits a wall in a year or two. Especially considering the extensive rehab he's gone through over the years. That has to equate to mileage on some level. I'd be willing to bet that Rice easily outscores Gore in the next 3 years. It is likely they are not in the same discussion after the next 2.
This actually illustrates SSOG's point pretty nicely. Gore is 27 years old. While his trade value is not what it once was, if you believe that Gore doesn't have 3 years left you can still move him for some pretty good value at this point in his career.Now imagine Gore is 30 instead of 27. What do you think you could get for him? Nothing.That is where Shonn Greene will be when he's at the stage of his career that Gore is at now.
Actually, that's not 100% true. I'm not saying I don't expect 3 more productive years out of Gore because he is 27. I'm saying it based on the fact that 7 productive years (in a row or not) is very uncommon. I was not the least bit surprised when Ricky Williams was able to run all over people last year. But expecting 7 straight years of production out of a guy who has a hard time staying healthy every single year (dating back to college) is just unlikely at best.But I see what you are saying (and what he was saying). Gore does carry quite a bit of value in a lot of people's minds due to the fact he's not 30. But still, if you can't move him, you are stuck with him. And I don't think you've got a lot left in that tank. Greene will be 28 in 3 years, with only 3 productive seasons (hopefully 3, I should say). I think his trade value will be just fine. You can point to plenty of guys who got a late start/had low mileage who produced well past 30. I really don't think it's that big of a deal. If Beanie struggles vs. 8 men in the box for the next 3 years under a plethora of bad and/or young QB's then his trade value isn't going to be all that exceptional.
:goodposting:
 
Ill take Greene over Wells. I dont see one being obviously more talented than the other, and Greene is in a much better situation IMO

 
TitansFan10 said:
These well thought arguments are why I love this place.I just think that Greene may be a bit more valuable than you see him SSOG. You are smarter than me. So could you actually play devil's advocate and compare him to a few players who came in and did much better than expected?In my mind, I see him as a faster/better version of Rudi Johnson. Am I the only one who saw him running for 10 yards a pop literally dragging guys behind him? It looked kind of like LT's prime when he was dragging those guys....Edit to add - I mean players YOU thought and maybe argued would be less valuable then were surprised with. I ask this only because I think many are seeing Greene as a 300 carry 1200 yard RB with at least 10 TD's a year. A very solid guy for some years to come. A guy I love to have as my weekly starter to go behind MJD or AP etc.
For what it's worth, I've tried to avoid giving any takes on Greene's ABSOLUTE value (i.e. where I have him ranked), sticking just to his RELATIVE value (i.e. where I have him ranked compared to Mathews and Wells). I mean, I could technically have Greene at #3 in my rankings and I'd still prefer Mathews and Wells if they were #1 and #2.With that said, you're right that I'm relatively cool on Greene. I'm not super-impressed with his body of work last year (hell, even Marcel Shipp has ended a season on a hot streak), and I don't think he's an elite talent. I think Rudi Johnson is an interesting comp because Rudi is pretty much the poster child for a mediocre talent who put up great numbers on the strength of his situation. Of course, Rudi was one of the lucky ones. Guys like Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith, and Marshawn Lynch (all guys who were at one point in time considered top-12 to top-15 dynasty backs) clearly demonstrate the two primary risks associated with mediocre talents- either the situation worsens, or the team brings in competition. A highly talented back can beat out any competition the team brings in and can still produce in sub-par situations. A mediocre talent, on the other hand, can't weather either of those two storms. Their value is much more prone to just disappearing with little-to-no warning.
This entire thread has been a pissing match between Beanie fans and Greene fans - so question for both groups: Why isn't Ryan Mathews 3rd here? Once you get past the cliches of "Chargers" and "Norv Turner RB", is this a super talented RB we have here? He was drafted high but some folks believe he was a reach at 12. I'll admit to not having seen too much of Fresno games and clips, but of the little bit I have seen of Mathews, he didn't exactly jump off of the screen. Not understanding why he's considered a better dynasty bet than either Beanie or Greene.
My default position is always "paid professionals in the NFL know more than I do". There is sometimes evidence that can get me to move from my default position, but I operate under a general "when in doubt, assume the professionals know what they are doing" philosophy. As a result, the fact that Mathews was the #12 pick (higher pedigree than either of the others) is very telling to me. It means that an NFL GM (and one who has been praised for his drafting acumen for years) thinks that Mathews is the best talent of the bunch, and was willing to trade a king's ransom to get him despite RB being the most fungible position on the field. That earns him a whole lot of the benefit of the doubt.
I see both sides to this issue... But, am starting to come around to the situation aspect a bit more. SSOG - remember your post a day or two ago about Lee Evans and his situation?
I think you missed the point of that post- it wasn't about Evans situation at all. I thought his situation was likely to improve, but the real reason his numbers haven't been better is because, relatively speaking, he wasn't the talent that I thought he was. I was rating him as if he was a top-10, possibly even top-5 WR, when in reality he was just a top-20 or top-15 WR. The fact that his situation hasn't improved is unfortunate, but the "bad process" came in the talent evaluation.
I dont think that is the basis for making a decision on moving a player.I think it's more likely the situation your team is in as a whole. If I am a contender today, Gore is more valuable on my roster than elsewhere. If it takes 2-3 years of rebuilding before my team is competitive, I make note of the hard miles on the Odometer for Gore and I dont build around Gore, I trade him away to restock the shelves.In this case, all 3 of the young RB's discussed above are young enough that you can build a fantasy team around them. but you must measure upside & risk.of the three, Green bears the least amount of risk because he has shown he can produce at a high level in the NFL. Neither of the other 2 RB's in question have done so yet, but I will make note that Wells has shown signs that he may be on the cusp of a breakout season playing for a team that is likely moving from a passing offense to a more balanced attack. So Beanie will likely get more work than last year. anyhow, your arguement that Green is to be avoided because he is 25 means nothing to me. I start to worry about age when the RB hits 27 or 28 if he has a history of injury, or at 29-30 if he does not.That doesnt mean my way of looking at things is any better than yours. I think it is just that I value experience more and you value youth more.
But don't you value having the option? You might not want to move a 27 year old Gore, but you *CAN* move a 27 year old Gore. You could move him even easier if he was 25. That flexibility, that option, that ability to use him as an asset to improve your team has value. Three years from now, when Greene is 28, you won't have that option. That impacts his value, whether you want to admit it or not. I'm not saying that he's to be avoided because he's 25, I'm saying that he has less value because he's 25 than he would if he was 23. I don't know how anyone could possibly argue otherwise. If you were given a choice between two COMPLETELY IDENTICAL PLAYERS where the only difference was that one was 25 and the other was 23, wouldn't you take the one that was 23?I also question the idea that Greene carries the least risk. Why, because he had two and a half good games to end the year? Marcel Shipp once ended a season with 403/3 in three games. Was he low risk? Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and William Green all were great over small samples, but they were hardly low-risk, either. I fail to see how Shonn Green's 844 career rushing yards (and 4 career receiving yards) make him lower risk than Beanie's 793 career rushing yards and 143 career receiving yards.
 
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Shonn Greene is 24, just mention this because he has been called 25 years old here about 347,225,277,894 times in this thread.
People typically refer to players by their age when the season starts. For instance Gore/Sjax are 26 but are often called 27 because that is what their age will be during the season. Same thing with Greene here.
 
Ill take Greene over Wells. I dont see one being obviously more talented than the other, and Greene is in a much better situation IMO
Well there is your first problem.... Wells blows Greene out of the water in talent.
i dont agree. Greene looked every bit as talented as Wells to me. Greene was also the top rated RB on the Jets draft board in 2009
Says who, the Jets? Well every single player the Broncos have ever drafted graded out as a first round prospect. At least, according to the Broncos...
 
Ill take Greene over Wells. I dont see one being obviously more talented than the other, and Greene is in a much better situation IMO
Well there is your first problem.... Wells blows Greene out of the water in talent.
i dont agree. Greene looked every bit as talented as Wells to me. Greene was also the top rated RB on the Jets draft board in 2009
Says who, the Jets? Well every single player the Broncos have ever drafted graded out as a first round prospect. At least, according to the Broncos...
I dont find it hard to believe. Greene wasnt exactly a chump at Iowa. He was also a great compliment to Washingtons skill set at the time he was drafted. I think the talent level between Wells and Greene is much closer than people are giving credit for. As for the Broncos....Dont recall them saying every or even most of their players graded out to a first rd. prospect
 
I dont find it hard to believe. Greene wasnt exactly a chump at Iowa. He was also a great compliment to Washingtons skill set at the time he was drafted. I think the talent level between Wells and Greene is much closer than people are giving credit for. As for the Broncos....Dont recall them saying every or even most of their players graded out to a first rd. prospect
He produced solid #'s for one season.Greene is slower, less agile, has worse hands than Beanie.

The only thing I consider = is power.

Now other things such as vision, patience, etc I haven't investigated enough to comment.

 
I dont find it hard to believe. Greene wasnt exactly a chump at Iowa. He was also a great compliment to Washingtons skill set at the time he was drafted. I think the talent level between Wells and Greene is much closer than people are giving credit for. As for the Broncos....Dont recall them saying every or even most of their players graded out to a first rd. prospect
He produced solid #'s for one season.Greene is slower, less agile, has worse hands than Beanie.

The only thing I consider = is power.

Now other things such as vision, patience, etc I haven't investigated enough to comment.
Greene was more agile at the combine and jumped better.
 
I dont find it hard to believe. Greene wasnt exactly a chump at Iowa. He was also a great compliment to Washingtons skill set at the time he was drafted. I think the talent level between Wells and Greene is much closer than people are giving credit for. As for the Broncos....Dont recall them saying every or even most of their players graded out to a first rd. prospect
He produced solid #'s for one season.Greene is slower, less agile, has worse hands than Beanie.

The only thing I consider = is power.

Now other things such as vision, patience, etc I haven't investigated enough to comment.
Greene was more agile at the combine and jumped better.
So you go by combine #'s?I can see that Beanie is more athletic than Greene.

Greene is good for what the jets need....a power straightline guy that is compact. However, he isn't better than Beanie athletically.

Check 1:50

Check 3:10

Check 3:17

Another reason http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMRuwXoVmhs...feature=related

ETA: I own Greene in one league and Beanie in ZERO leagues.

 
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I dont find it hard to believe. Greene wasnt exactly a chump at Iowa. He was also a great compliment to Washingtons skill set at the time he was drafted. I think the talent level between Wells and Greene is much closer than people are giving credit for. As for the Broncos....Dont recall them saying every or even most of their players graded out to a first rd. prospect
He produced solid #'s for one season.Greene is slower, less agile, has worse hands than Beanie.

The only thing I consider = is power.

Now other things such as vision, patience, etc I haven't investigated enough to comment.
Im not sure who is faster or more agile in a game while wearing pads. I can tell you this though Greene looked much more explosive to me on the field last season than he was ever given credit for coming out of college. The only question i have about Greene at this point is how he can hold up with a big workload. There isnt any doubt in my mind that the guy has tons of talent as a runner and if he can prove durable he will be a stud well into the future. I also love Beanie so im in no way knocking him at all. Im only stating that my opinion is that both RBs look to be very talented and are very close in that regard to me.

 
I dont find it hard to believe. Greene wasnt exactly a chump at Iowa. He was also a great compliment to Washingtons skill set at the time he was drafted. I think the talent level between Wells and Greene is much closer than people are giving credit for. As for the Broncos....Dont recall them saying every or even most of their players graded out to a first rd. prospect
He produced solid #'s for one season.Greene is slower, less agile, has worse hands than Beanie.

The only thing I consider = is power.

Now other things such as vision, patience, etc I haven't investigated enough to comment.
Im not sure who is faster or more agile in a game while wearing pads. I can tell you this though Greene looked much more explosive to me on the field last season than he was ever given credit for coming out of college. The only question i have about Greene at this point is how he can hold up with a big workload. There isnt any doubt in my mind that the guy has tons of talent as a runner and if he can prove durable he will be a stud well into the future. I also love Beanie so im in no way knocking him at all. Im only stating that my opinion is that both RBs look to be very talented and are very close in that regard to me.
I think this has to do with him being out of shape at the beginning of his last year in college. He was much more explosive at the end of that season vs the beginning of it.
 
I guess this probably deserves its own thread, but I'm surprised at how ready most posters are to discount Tim Hightower and not worry about him eating into Wells' numbers. He's carved out a valuable role in the offense as a great pass-catching back, and, most importantly, as a goal-line vulture. I do like Wells but I just don't think Hightower's going anywhere and he's going to put a ceiling on what we'll see from Wells.

I tend to think Wells is overvalued at this point whereas Greene is quite undervalued, which I never would have expected after his playoff showing. He rushed for 300+ yards in the playoffs and his team subsequently cut a 1,400 yard rusher to clearly make him the guy. Add to that the fact that they're solidly a run-first team...I get that he's not a pass catcher, but, beyond that, what's there not to like?
I agree 100%. Wells is extremely over valued. Hightower is one of the best receiving backs in the league and is extremely valuable to that football team. For some reason fantasy owners think that the coach cares more about Wells fantasy stats than about winning football games. Hightower had 63 receptions last year and he will be in there on most passing downs again this year. If he's not, then Whisenhunt is the biggest moron in the league.The only chance Wells has of beating Greene is if the Cardinals change their game plan in dramatic fashion and pound the hell out of the ball. Of course this won't work either because their defense will suck and they won't be able to sustain a run game. Don't forget they lost Dansby and Rolle. I'll be surprised if Wells have 220 carries.
Can we please slow down the THT Hall of Fame train for a few seconds and actually look at stats? Yes, THT was 2nd in the league in receptions in 2009, but he was also 2nd in the league in targets. Can we please hold off on calling him "one of the best receiving backs in the league" when he doesn't even have 100 career recptions yet? Hightower was also 21st in catch % and 51st in yards/reception among RBs in 2009. Want to know who some of the top 10 RBs in Y/rec were in 2009? (that had at least 10 receptions) - AP, CJ, Sproles, Mendy and Beanie Wells. ProfootballFocus also tracks YAC/rec - Hightower was 48th, Wells? 19th. ProFootballFocus also "grades out" RBs in various aspects of their game. Hightower graded out as the 57th best receiving RB - Wells was 18th.Also, I do find it funny that people suggest that Wells' value takes a hit because of a poor QB, but THT, the alleged "pass catching stud", his value somehow is immune - when it seems to me that at least on some level, a pass cathing RB would be more reliant on decent throws, not less.

I'll take Wells and Matthews.
Quit being dramatic. No one said hightower is a hall of fame running back. But if you think they are going to bench a guy that is coming off of a 62 catch season, you are fooling yourself. Wells will not have 300 touches. He will be spelled by hightower. Since Wells is clearly the better runner and Hightower has clearly proven to be an effective receiver, then how do you expect them to utilize Hightower? Thats right, on passing downs. Should I remind you that Michael Turner is acutally a good receiving back? Doesn't matter though because he's not used on passing downs. They have other backs that can catch well so they give Turner a breather on passing downs. If anyone drafts Wells on the assumption that he will post good receiving stats, or even the league average for a running back, then you are selling yourself short.

Also, you are insulting your own intelligence by not recognizing that genrally YPC averages go down linearlly with the number of touches. If you don't understand this, then perhaps you should consider drafting Chris Ogbonnaya who boasted a ridiculous 19 YPC last season.

 
I guess this probably deserves its own thread, but I'm surprised at how ready most posters are to discount Tim Hightower and not worry about him eating into Wells' numbers. He's carved out a valuable role in the offense as a great pass-catching back, and, most importantly, as a goal-line vulture. I do like Wells but I just don't think Hightower's going anywhere and he's going to put a ceiling on what we'll see from Wells.

I tend to think Wells is overvalued at this point whereas Greene is quite undervalued, which I never would have expected after his playoff showing. He rushed for 300+ yards in the playoffs and his team subsequently cut a 1,400 yard rusher to clearly make him the guy. Add to that the fact that they're solidly a run-first team...I get that he's not a pass catcher, but, beyond that, what's there not to like?
I agree 100%. Wells is extremely over valued. Hightower is one of the best receiving backs in the league and is extremely valuable to that football team. For some reason fantasy owners think that the coach cares more about Wells fantasy stats than about winning football games. Hightower had 63 receptions last year and he will be in there on most passing downs again this year. If he's not, then Whisenhunt is the biggest moron in the league.The only chance Wells has of beating Greene is if the Cardinals change their game plan in dramatic fashion and pound the hell out of the ball. Of course this won't work either because their defense will suck and they won't be able to sustain a run game. Don't forget they lost Dansby and Rolle. I'll be surprised if Wells have 220 carries.
Can we please slow down the THT Hall of Fame train for a few seconds and actually look at stats? Yes, THT was 2nd in the league in receptions in 2009, but he was also 2nd in the league in targets. Can we please hold off on calling him "one of the best receiving backs in the league" when he doesn't even have 100 career recptions yet? Hightower was also 21st in catch % and 51st in yards/reception among RBs in 2009. Want to know who some of the top 10 RBs in Y/rec were in 2009? (that had at least 10 receptions) - AP, CJ, Sproles, Mendy and Beanie Wells. ProfootballFocus also tracks YAC/rec - Hightower was 48th, Wells? 19th. ProFootballFocus also "grades out" RBs in various aspects of their game. Hightower graded out as the 57th best receiving RB - Wells was 18th.Also, I do find it funny that people suggest that Wells' value takes a hit because of a poor QB, but THT, the alleged "pass catching stud", his value somehow is immune - when it seems to me that at least on some level, a pass cathing RB would be more reliant on decent throws, not less.

I'll take Wells and Matthews.
Quit being dramatic. No one said hightower is a hall of fame running back. But if you think they are going to bench a guy that is coming off of a 62 catch season, you are fooling yourself. Wells will not have 300 touches. He will be spelled by hightower. Since Wells is clearly the better runner and Hightower has clearly proven to be an effective receiver, then how do you expect them to utilize Hightower? Thats right, on passing downs. Should I remind you that Michael Turner is acutally a good receiving back? Doesn't matter though because he's not used on passing downs. They have other backs that can catch well so they give Turner a breather on passing downs. If anyone drafts Wells on the assumption that he will post good receiving stats, or even the league average for a running back, then you are selling yourself short.

Also, you are insulting your own intelligence by not recognizing that genrally YPC averages go down linearlly with the number of touches. If you don't understand this, then perhaps you should consider drafting Chris Ogbonnaya who boasted a ridiculous 19 YPC last season.
Michael Turner has had 22 receptions in his career. Did his career high of 6 make you say this? It's hard to take you seriously when you "Remind us" Turner is a good receiving back. Before you pull out the college card I looked it up and he had 43 receptions in 4 seasons.
 
Personally, I think teams have taken this whole "3rd down" running back thing way too far. It's one thing when you're talking about a running back that's actually splitting out and running routes that a wide receiver would run like Steven Jackson or Reggie Bush do at times. But what the heck is the point in having a guy like Tim Hightower or Chester Taylor out there?

It's not like they're lining up in the slot and running slants. They're coming out of the backfield, turning around, usually standing still, and catching a floater that my mother could hang onto with no problem. So at that point, don't you want your best runner to have the ball? How many times did Chester Taylor catch a check down pass on 3rd down last year and be taken down a couple yards short of a 1st down? How many of those times would Adrian Peterson have picked up those extra couple yards and kept the drive going rather than watch the team walk off the field and punt? It's not like they were difficult catches, they were as simple as going outside and throwing the ball around in your back yard.

It was the same thing with Beanie and Hightower last year. Beanie wasn't running any more exotic routes than Hightower, he was just better once he got the ball in his hands because he's a better runner.

Sure, pass protection is also a part of it, but this idea that Hightower is some kind of special receiving back just baffles me. I watched a lot of Arizona games last year and I'm in no way confident that he caught any more passes given the targets he got than any other running back in the league could have, and I am confident that he did a lot less once he had the ball in his hands than many of those other guys could have.

 
Personally, I think teams have taken this whole "3rd down" running back thing way too far. It's one thing when you're talking about a running back that's actually splitting out and running routes that a wide receiver would run like Steven Jackson or Reggie Bush do at times. But what the heck is the point in having a guy like Tim Hightower or Chester Taylor out there?It's not like they're lining up in the slot and running slants. They're coming out of the backfield, turning around, usually standing still, and catching a floater that my mother could hang onto with no problem. So at that point, don't you want your best runner to have the ball? How many times did Chester Taylor catch a check down pass on 3rd down last year and be taken down a couple yards short of a 1st down? How many of those times would Adrian Peterson have picked up those extra couple yards and kept the drive going rather than watch the team walk off the field and punt? It's not like they were difficult catches, they were as simple as going outside and throwing the ball around in your back yard.It was the same thing with Beanie and Hightower last year. Beanie wasn't running any more exotic routes than Hightower, he was just better once he got the ball in his hands because he's a better runner.Sure, pass protection is also a part of it, but this idea that Hightower is some kind of special receiving back just baffles me. I watched a lot of Arizona games last year and I'm in no way confident that he caught any more passes given the targets he got than any other running back in the league could have, and I am confident that he did a lot less once he had the ball in his hands than many of those other guys could have.
:kicksrock: couldnt agree more!
 
These well thought arguments are why I love this place.I just think that Greene may be a bit more valuable than you see him SSOG. You are smarter than me. So could you actually play devil's advocate and compare him to a few players who came in and did much better than expected?In my mind, I see him as a faster/better version of Rudi Johnson. Am I the only one who saw him running for 10 yards a pop literally dragging guys behind him? It looked kind of like LT's prime when he was dragging those guys....Edit to add - I mean players YOU thought and maybe argued would be less valuable then were surprised with. I ask this only because I think many are seeing Greene as a 300 carry 1200 yard RB with at least 10 TD's a year. A very solid guy for some years to come. A guy I love to have as my weekly starter to go behind MJD or AP etc.
For what it's worth, I've tried to avoid giving any takes on Greene's ABSOLUTE value (i.e. where I have him ranked), sticking just to his RELATIVE value (i.e. where I have him ranked compared to Mathews and Wells). I mean, I could technically have Greene at #3 in my rankings and I'd still prefer Mathews and Wells if they were #1 and #2.With that said, you're right that I'm relatively cool on Greene. I'm not super-impressed with his body of work last year (hell, even Marcel Shipp has ended a season on a hot streak), and I don't think he's an elite talent. I think Rudi Johnson is an interesting comp because Rudi is pretty much the poster child for a mediocre talent who put up great numbers on the strength of his situation. Of course, Rudi was one of the lucky ones. Guys like Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith, and Marshawn Lynch (all guys who were at one point in time considered top-12 to top-15 dynasty backs) clearly demonstrate the two primary risks associated with mediocre talents- either the situation worsens, or the team brings in competition. A highly talented back can beat out any competition the team brings in and can still produce in sub-par situations. A mediocre talent, on the other hand, can't weather either of those two storms. Their value is much more prone to just disappearing with little-to-no warning.
This entire thread has been a pissing match between Beanie fans and Greene fans - so question for both groups: Why isn't Ryan Mathews 3rd here? Once you get past the cliches of "Chargers" and "Norv Turner RB", is this a super talented RB we have here? He was drafted high but some folks believe he was a reach at 12. I'll admit to not having seen too much of Fresno games and clips, but of the little bit I have seen of Mathews, he didn't exactly jump off of the screen. Not understanding why he's considered a better dynasty bet than either Beanie or Greene.
My default position is always "paid professionals in the NFL know more than I do". There is sometimes evidence that can get me to move from my default position, but I operate under a general "when in doubt, assume the professionals know what they are doing" philosophy. As a result, the fact that Mathews was the #12 pick (higher pedigree than either of the others) is very telling to me. It means that an NFL GM (and one who has been praised for his drafting acumen for years) thinks that Mathews is the best talent of the bunch, and was willing to trade a king's ransom to get him despite RB being the most fungible position on the field. That earns him a whole lot of the benefit of the doubt.
I see both sides to this issue... But, am starting to come around to the situation aspect a bit more. SSOG - remember your post a day or two ago about Lee Evans and his situation?
I think you missed the point of that post- it wasn't about Evans situation at all. I thought his situation was likely to improve, but the real reason his numbers haven't been better is because, relatively speaking, he wasn't the talent that I thought he was. I was rating him as if he was a top-10, possibly even top-5 WR, when in reality he was just a top-20 or top-15 WR. The fact that his situation hasn't improved is unfortunate, but the "bad process" came in the talent evaluation.
I dont think that is the basis for making a decision on moving a player.I think it's more likely the situation your team is in as a whole. If I am a contender today, Gore is more valuable on my roster than elsewhere. If it takes 2-3 years of rebuilding before my team is competitive, I make note of the hard miles on the Odometer for Gore and I dont build around Gore, I trade him away to restock the shelves.In this case, all 3 of the young RB's discussed above are young enough that you can build a fantasy team around them. but you must measure upside & risk.of the three, Green bears the least amount of risk because he has shown he can produce at a high level in the NFL. Neither of the other 2 RB's in question have done so yet, but I will make note that Wells has shown signs that he may be on the cusp of a breakout season playing for a team that is likely moving from a passing offense to a more balanced attack. So Beanie will likely get more work than last year. anyhow, your arguement that Green is to be avoided because he is 25 means nothing to me. I start to worry about age when the RB hits 27 or 28 if he has a history of injury, or at 29-30 if he does not.That doesnt mean my way of looking at things is any better than yours. I think it is just that I value experience more and you value youth more.
But don't you value having the option? You might not want to move a 27 year old Gore, but you *CAN* move a 27 year old Gore. You could move him even easier if he was 25. That flexibility, that option, that ability to use him as an asset to improve your team has value. Three years from now, when Greene is 28, you won't have that option. That impacts his value, whether you want to admit it or not. I'm not saying that he's to be avoided because he's 25, I'm saying that he has less value because he's 25 than he would if he was 23. I don't know how anyone could possibly argue otherwise. If you were given a choice between two COMPLETELY IDENTICAL PLAYERS where the only difference was that one was 25 and the other was 23, wouldn't you take the one that was 23?I also question the idea that Greene carries the least risk. Why, because he had two and a half good games to end the year? Marcel Shipp once ended a season with 403/3 in three games. Was he low risk? Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and William Green all were great over small samples, but they were hardly low-risk, either. I fail to see how Shonn Green's 844 career rushing yards (and 4 career receiving yards) make him lower risk than Beanie's 793 career rushing yards and 143 career receiving yards.
yeah, but those guys were not running behind a road grader offensive line like Greene is.I'd bet money that you and me can rush for 1000 yards behind that line. and I'm not joking. Those guys are awesome.so regardless of what you think about the talent there, the system and personell make him a much lower risk than he would otherwise be.put a RB into a passing system, and his numbers will be mediocre. put him into a running system and his numbers become a lot better.That's where I'm coming from. The other issue is that RB's tend to have shorter careers, so in the case of younger prospects, I am more likely to look at short run potential and immediate return/production than with other positions and Greene provides that in spades compared to beanie and Matthews.
 
yeah, but those guys were not running behind a road grader offensive line like Greene is.I'd bet money that you and me can rush for 1000 yards behind that line. and I'm not joking. Those guys are awesome.so regardless of what you think about the talent there, the system and personell make him a much lower risk than he would otherwise be.put a RB into a passing system, and his numbers will be mediocre. put him into a running system and his numbers become a lot better.That's where I'm coming from. The other issue is that RB's tend to have shorter careers, so in the case of younger prospects, I am more likely to look at short run potential and immediate return/production than with other positions and Greene provides that in spades compared to beanie and Matthews.
Funny to hear a Chargers fan calling the Jets a better situation than San Diego. Yeah, their offensive line is awesome, but Norv Turner is the patron saint of overworking RBs until they put up fantasy numbers way above their pay grade. Tomlinson finished 5th in rushing TDs last year. Fifth. As someone who presumably saw him play a lot, I'm sure you can agree that Tomlinson had *NO BUSINESS* putting up such respectable fantasy numbers last year. He played terribly, and yet he was still a very strong fantasy starter.
 
Personally, I think teams have taken this whole "3rd down" running back thing way too far. It's one thing when you're talking about a running back that's actually splitting out and running routes that a wide receiver would run like Steven Jackson or Reggie Bush do at times. But what the heck is the point in having a guy like Tim Hightower or Chester Taylor out there?It's not like they're lining up in the slot and running slants. They're coming out of the backfield, turning around, usually standing still, and catching a floater that my mother could hang onto with no problem. So at that point, don't you want your best runner to have the ball? How many times did Chester Taylor catch a check down pass on 3rd down last year and be taken down a couple yards short of a 1st down? How many of those times would Adrian Peterson have picked up those extra couple yards and kept the drive going rather than watch the team walk off the field and punt? It's not like they were difficult catches, they were as simple as going outside and throwing the ball around in your back yard.It was the same thing with Beanie and Hightower last year. Beanie wasn't running any more exotic routes than Hightower, he was just better once he got the ball in his hands because he's a better runner.Sure, pass protection is also a part of it, but this idea that Hightower is some kind of special receiving back just baffles me. I watched a lot of Arizona games last year and I'm in no way confident that he caught any more passes given the targets he got than any other running back in the league could have, and I am confident that he did a lot less once he had the ball in his hands than many of those other guys could have.
:goodposting: I find myself agreeing with this
 
Mathews and no close. Beanie had not kurt and had Timmy to steal carries. Green has LT2 in his shadow neirther is a PPR pack I go Mathews by a landslide

 

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