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Self-Driving Cars (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ned Ryerson
- Start date
James Daulton
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
Performance is already becoming less and less of an issue as most cars have more than enough power for city commuting. People want performance from their cars because it's fun to drive so once the fun factor is removed people will care more about comfort than performance.
What will become most important will be interior comfort, features, and a comfortable ride.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
Homer J Simpson
I don't push
cstu
Footballguy
James Daulton
Footballguy
It's pretty rare when a technology is a win just about all around. I get that commercial drivers will be impacted but the win for consumers, healthcare, insurance, etc should be huge.
El Floppo
Footballguy
and old client of mine is a car guy- used to do gumball rally and other rallies in europe, and has been writing about car-related things for years. think he works for The Drive now. saw him a couple months ago and he said it's more like 10 years or less. fwiw. also said that "classic" cars will have a big bounce for people who will still want to drive themselves, but in something that is obviously old.
Brony
Footballguy
Yep, manufacturers will be turning out a lot fewer muscle cars, still will be a demand for that diminishing thing. I think there will be a resurgence (?) of racing clubs for people that still want to cut loose on a track.
cstu
Footballguy
Parrothead
Footballguy
when i was your age I used to drive myself to work uphill both ways!
Nugget
Footballguy
Majority is a tough one. 250 million vehicles registered in the US. 100M+ autonomous vehicles is a lot in 20 years, and that is with 20%+ vehicles not getting replaced. Autonomous vehicles are the future, but I still think it is a slow adoption rate.
cstu
Footballguy
I don't think it will take long at all. The minute people see someone having fun in their car during their commute while they are frustrated at traffic they'll switch pretty quick. I predict within 10 years a majority of cars sold will be self-driving.
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cstu
Footballguy
Fat Nick
Footballguy
I think it'll be 2 steps forward, 1 step back...We're in the 2 steps forward portion right now. Tesla, Volvo, etc. have more than a proof-of-concept out there right now. Cars driving themselves around, with minimal (but still some) driver intervention or affirmative input required. The more of these cars that hit the road, the more chance for issues. The more attainable these cars become to the general population, the more idiots will end up driving them and trying to do stupid things.
1 or 2 self-driving car accidents is all it will take to force the 1 step back...Even the "self-driving" cars now are still only minimally self-driving. They require affirmative feedback from the driver to show they're "there" and paying attention. I'm worried about when they get to the point that check goes away.
1 or 2 self-driving car accidents is all it will take to force the 1 step back...Even the "self-driving" cars now are still only minimally self-driving. They require affirmative feedback from the driver to show they're "there" and paying attention. I'm worried about when they get to the point that check goes away.
cstu
Footballguy
I'm sure they will. My prediction is Florida Man will be the first to kill himself while surfing his self-driving car.
Otis
Footballguy
I think the point is that even if self driving guys aren't perfect, they'll still be an improvement and drive down motor vehicle accidents/fatalities/etc.
We'll see.
bostonfred
Footballguy
The hard parts are things like parking the car in my garage or in a driveway with kids running around or when a plastic bag is flying harmlessly around on the highway or when i want to park in a tight spot but not too close to the car on the drivers side so we can both get in or driving in snow or when there are potholes or speed bumps or stopping behind double parked cars in manhattan. It will take more than intelligent computing to solve all the problems. But eventually you'll get infrastructure changes like smart detours or guidance markers for the drive thru line and repainted parking lots.
Nugget
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Yes, but it will go down. The convenience of owning a car is hard to overcome. It needs to be cheaper to get a public car than to own your own, obviously - nobody would prefer to wait for a ride to show up when they want to go to work or run a random errand. You can bring prices down by ride sharing, but then when the car gets to bob's house and he's running late and you want dunkins but sanjay and kim want starbucks and you live close and work close but not in the same building so someone always has to wait - there's a convenience factor.
The likely model is i buy a self driving car, get to work, then add it to the fleet of self driving ubers while i work until i want my car back. That's a little better although there are obvious butt smell and spilled coffee issues.
City drivers will love having cheap available transportation and will ditch their cars, but suburbanites and rural drivers will still want their own ride until the cost basis changes significantly. And that will probably take a long time. Manufacturers want to sell lots of cars and people want the convenience of owning.
cstu
Footballguy
I assume it's going to be like Uber with a lot of cars always go around. In a big city there shouldn't be too much trouble getting a car within a few minutes.
I think families would want to own one for the piece of mind but could get rid of the second car.
Nugget
Footballguy
My only concern is that everyone is going to want a car at the same time. dynamic pricing between 6:30-8:30 could be ugly. School and work still generally start around the same time.
How many miles do you think an average Uber car would be putting on a month? Replacement cycle could accelerate, and the costs associated with the additional cameras and sensors will be big to start.
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
What about car seats for the kids if you don't own the vehicle? Some cars have the seats, some don't? Transporting children isn't trivial.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Confirmation
Time requested
810-820am
Number of passengers
1
Max number of stops
1
Features required/preferred/irrelevant
Child safety seat r
Heated seats p
Air conditioning i
Wifi enabled p
Tv enabled p
massraider
Footballguy
Really looking forward to having sex in the back of a self driving Uber.
cstu
Footballguy
Great minds and that.
Also, nice way to pick up a hooker without worrying about your car getting impounded or making your own car a mess.
Now that I think about it, I'm going to buy my own self-driving car.
oso diablo
Footballguy
been looking deeply into this technology for work (auto insurance).
it's going to happen way faster than most think. in fact, it's already here in pockets. there is so much money pouring into this from all the giants (google, apple, ibm, federal government), as well as some very interesting startups.
early adopters: compact cities like NY/SF/Boston, elderly, disabled, teens, defined-route shuttles (like in national parks and stadium parking lots), uber-pools for commuters, long-haul trucking
links:
Google's Waymo already giving rides in Phoenix
Trucking in Europe
Shuttle van at Univ. of Michigan
it's going to happen way faster than most think. in fact, it's already here in pockets. there is so much money pouring into this from all the giants (google, apple, ibm, federal government), as well as some very interesting startups.
early adopters: compact cities like NY/SF/Boston, elderly, disabled, teens, defined-route shuttles (like in national parks and stadium parking lots), uber-pools for commuters, long-haul trucking
links:
Google's Waymo already giving rides in Phoenix
Trucking in Europe
Shuttle van at Univ. of Michigan
Nugget
Footballguy
There are 250 million vehicles registered in the United States. When do you see more than 125 million self driving vehicles in the United States?
Trick question? Probably never (until the population triples or something).
When self-driving cars become the norm, there should be way fewer cars than there currently are. Most cars spend at least 80% of their time parked, and in many cases more than 90% (if they are driven about 2 hours a day). People own their own cars so that they'll be available 24 hours a day, even if they'll actually be used only a small fraction of each day.
A fleet of self-driving cars can provide 24-hour availability for everyone even if there are only around 30% as many cars per person as there currently are (more or less, depending on people's tastes for sharing rides).
Nugget
Footballguy
So 40 million self driving cars could replace 125 million personally owned cars under this scenario. How long to get to 40 million self driving cars in the US?
Will it be considerably cheaper than Uber is currently? We don't seem to have a huge drop off consumers buying vehicles - the US is on pace for 17.1M this year in vehicle sales.
Homer J Simpson
I don't push
How long? I don't know about the other guys, but my crystal ball is on the fritz.
As for being cheaper than Uber, I would assume taking the human driver out of the equation would drop costs quite a bit. So eventually, yes.
As for this year's vehicle sales, what does that have to do with anything?
Brony
Footballguy
squidrope
Footballguy
I think you're underestimating the "peak" hours of usage in your 30%. I'd guess it'll be more like 50%. That's based on commute times decreasing significantly and "peak" usage times. I can't wait for this to be in use. Traffic jams will be a thing of the past. "The best thing since driverless cars" will replace the sliced bread version.
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Even if 50% of the population all need to get to work at about the same time, many of them will be going in roughly the same direction as each other, so they don't all need to be in separate cars. I was trying to account for that with my comment about ride-sharing.
Also, in the timeframe we're talking about, I think a lot more people will telecommute, so not as many people will need to be somewhere at the same time.
squidrope
Footballguy
Self driving cars and telecommuting are mutually exclusive. Ride sharing should increase as cars will be in a sense small busses. Still thinking your 30% is quite low, but we'll see.
squidrope
Footballguy
Homer J Simpson
I don't push
Nugget
Footballguy
The original question asked how long until half the cars on the road are self driving. Seems like current sales rate could have some impact on people's estimate. Anything less than 10 years seems optimistic.
As for Uber, right now they don't have to buy the cars. There is going to be quite a lot of investment if they want to buy a fleet. Not sure what their last 6 months of scandals have done to a potential IPO
Homer J Simpson
I don't push
Personally, I think when it happens it'll happen fast. Not too much action in the next five/seven years, but then a huge jump somewhat soon after that. You know, that whole tipping point thing...
