Self Driving Cars (2 Viewers)

[Caveman33]

Self driving cars are so much safer than humans. Over a decade, yearly traffic citations in SF went from 120K to 4K, a 97% reduction

Thanks.

Do you have a link?

And to make sure I understand, you're saying total citations of all kinds of cars went from 120,000 to 4,000 over 10 years? Are there enough fully self-driving cars on the road for that to be a cause?

https://x.com/OrinKerr/status/1779379994810257526 I've seen these numbers shared by a variety of sources, including local newspapers, and I trust they are accurate.

SF.gov has a traffic citation page but it does not appear to display total citations in a clear way. However, all the subgroups of citations type corroborate the 97% decline, such as, "San Francisco’s total stop sign citations have declined in the past few years. San Francisco has declined from close to 1,500 citations per 100,000 residents in 2014 to just under 50 in 2022." https://www.sf.gov/data--vision-zero-benchmarking-traffic-citations

I don't think self-driving cars are the cause of the rapid decline in traffic stops. San Francisco was already trending downward from 2014-2019. 120K to 40K, but there was a dramatic drop in the 2020s. Many other cities saw huge drops in the 2020s, almost 90% in Seattle, while some cities experienced more modest declines. Some people attribute this to covid-19, but if that were true, wouldn't the numbers have rebounded by now? I believe the primary cause was and is quiet quitting from the police in response to the protests.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Self driving cars are so much safer than humans. Over a decade, yearly traffic citations in SF went from 120K to 4K, a 97% reduction

Thanks.

Do you have a link?

And to make sure I understand, you're saying total citations of all kinds of cars went from 120,000 to 4,000 over 10 years? Are there enough fully self-driving cars on the road for that to be a cause?

https://x.com/OrinKerr/status/1779379994810257526 I've seen these numbers shared by a variety of sources, including local newspapers, and I trust they are accurate.

SF.gov has a traffic citation page but it does not appear to display total citations in a clear way. However, all the subgroups of citations type corroborate the 97% decline, such as, "San Francisco’s total stop sign citations have declined in the past few years. San Francisco has declined from close to 1,500 citations per 100,000 residents in 2014 to just under 50 in 2022." https://www.sf.gov/data--vision-zero-benchmarking-traffic-citations

I don't think self-driving cars are the cause of the rapid decline in traffic stops. San Francisco was already trending downward from 2014-2019. 120K to 40K, but there was a dramatic drop in the 2020s. Many other cities saw huge drops in the 2020s, almost 90% in Seattle, while some cities experienced more modest declines. Some people attribute this to covid-19, but if that were true, wouldn't the numbers have rebounded by now? I believe the primary cause was and is quiet quitting from the police in response to the protests.

More likely it is simply budget cuts and re-deployment away from traffic stops and toward other enforcement. But who really knows for sure.

 

[Joe Bryant]

One thing where I think the Robotaxis will be fantastic is for elderly people who probably shouldn't be driving but can still live independently.

 

[belljr]

Doubtful until the price point becomes affordable. I had a tough time shelling out 35k for a new car lol

50 years from now I believe most families will opt out of owning their own car. It will be more cost effective to not own.

Maybe but suburbia infrastructure would need to change. Getting around here is not easy without a vehicle. But things could evolve

 

[the moops]

Self driving cars are so much safer than humans. Over a decade, yearly traffic citations in SF went from 120K to 4K, a 97% reduction

Thanks.

Do you have a link?

And to make sure I understand, you're saying total citations of all kinds of cars went from 120,000 to 4,000 over 10 years? Are there enough fully self-driving cars on the road for that to be a cause?

https://x.com/OrinKerr/status/1779379994810257526 I've seen these numbers shared by a variety of sources, including local newspapers, and I trust they are accurate.

SF.gov has a traffic citation page but it does not appear to display total citations in a clear way. However, all the subgroups of citations type corroborate the 97% decline, such as, "San Francisco’s total stop sign citations have declined in the past few years. San Francisco has declined from close to 1,500 citations per 100,000 residents in 2014 to just under 50 in 2022." https://www.sf.gov/data--vision-zero-benchmarking-traffic-citations

I don't think self-driving cars are the cause of the rapid decline in traffic stops. San Francisco was already trending downward from 2014-2019. 120K to 40K, but there was a dramatic drop in the 2020s. Many other cities saw huge drops in the 2020s, almost 90% in Seattle, while some cities experienced more modest declines. Some people attribute this to covid-19, but if that were true, wouldn't the numbers have rebounded by now? I believe the primary cause was and is quiet quitting from the police in response to the protests.

More likely it is simply budget cuts and re-deployment away from traffic stops and toward other enforcement. But who really knows for sure.

Gotta be. There is no chance that the 97% reduction is accurate in regards to people's driving habits and inclination to not break traffic laws

 

[Caveman33]

Self driving cars are so much safer than humans. Over a decade, yearly traffic citations in SF went from 120K to 4K, a 97% reduction

Thanks.

Do you have a link?

And to make sure I understand, you're saying total citations of all kinds of cars went from 120,000 to 4,000 over 10 years? Are there enough fully self-driving cars on the road for that to be a cause?

https://x.com/OrinKerr/status/1779379994810257526 I've seen these numbers shared by a variety of sources, including local newspapers, and I trust they are accurate.

SF.gov has a traffic citation page but it does not appear to display total citations in a clear way. However, all the subgroups of citations type corroborate the 97% decline, such as, "San Francisco’s total stop sign citations have declined in the past few years. San Francisco has declined from close to 1,500 citations per 100,000 residents in 2014 to just under 50 in 2022." https://www.sf.gov/data--vision-zero-benchmarking-traffic-citations

I don't think self-driving cars are the cause of the rapid decline in traffic stops. San Francisco was already trending downward from 2014-2019. 120K to 40K, but there was a dramatic drop in the 2020s. Many other cities saw huge drops in the 2020s, almost 90% in Seattle, while some cities experienced more modest declines. Some people attribute this to covid-19, but if that were true, wouldn't the numbers have rebounded by now? I believe the primary cause was and is quiet quitting from the police in response to the protests.

More likely it is simply budget cuts and re-deployment away from traffic stops and toward other enforcement. But who really knows for sure.

That is a factor, but it looks insignificant when looking at the numbers. Between 2019-2021, they did reduce the traffic division from 69 officers to 45. But those 45 officers averaged 10 tickets per day. Not 10 tickets each--10 tickets total among all 45 officers assigned to traffic. https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/bayarea/heatherknight/article/sfpd-traffic-tickets-17355651.php

The police budget did temporarily peak in 2019-2020 at $741 million but the spending per resident has remained fairly stable and the budget for 2024-2025 was $822 million. https://www.cjcj.org/media/import/d...pend_more_get_less_from_their_police_dept.pdf

And if the police were focused on other areas, you would think the numbers would reflect that. They do have a very high rate for solving murders. But we only had 35 murders last year. In 2023, for reported assaults, they arrested a suspect 37% of the time. For robberies, they arrested a suspect 20% of the time. There's also a pervasive attitude of not reporting assaults and robberies because it's accepted that the police won't make an effort. Many people are discouraged from reporting by the officers themselves. https://sfist.com/2024/10/09/stats-...st-in-the-state-at-solving-most-other-crimes/

Anyway, the policing is a tangent off the self-driving cars but I think it is one more reason why self-driving cars can save lives and money. If the roads become fully autonomous vehicles, there would be little need for enforcement. Every day in the U.S., over 100 people die in car accidents and over 7,000 go to the ER for injuries. Fully autonomous roads could theoretically bring those numbers very close to 0 and in the case of some huge malfunction, it would merely match what is our currently accepted daily average.

 

[the moops]

Self driving cars are so much safer than humans. Over a decade, yearly traffic citations in SF went from 120K to 4K, a 97% reduction

Thanks.

Do you have a link?

And to make sure I understand, you're saying total citations of all kinds of cars went from 120,000 to 4,000 over 10 years? Are there enough fully self-driving cars on the road for that to be a cause?

https://x.com/OrinKerr/status/1779379994810257526 I've seen these numbers shared by a variety of sources, including local newspapers, and I trust they are accurate.

SF.gov has a traffic citation page but it does not appear to display total citations in a clear way. However, all the subgroups of citations type corroborate the 97% decline, such as, "San Francisco’s total stop sign citations have declined in the past few years. San Francisco has declined from close to 1,500 citations per 100,000 residents in 2014 to just under 50 in 2022." https://www.sf.gov/data--vision-zero-benchmarking-traffic-citations

I don't think self-driving cars are the cause of the rapid decline in traffic stops. San Francisco was already trending downward from 2014-2019. 120K to 40K, but there was a dramatic drop in the 2020s. Many other cities saw huge drops in the 2020s, almost 90% in Seattle, while some cities experienced more modest declines. Some people attribute this to covid-19, but if that were true, wouldn't the numbers have rebounded by now? I believe the primary cause was and is quiet quitting from the police in response to the protests.

More likely it is simply budget cuts and re-deployment away from traffic stops and toward other enforcement. But who really knows for sure.

That is a factor, but it looks insignificant when looking at the numbers. Between 2019-2021, they did reduce the traffic division from 69 officers to 45. But those 45 officers averaged 10 tickets per day. Not 10 tickets each--10 tickets total among all 45 officers assigned to traffic. https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/bayarea/heatherknight/article/sfpd-traffic-tickets-17355651.php

The police budget did temporarily peak in 2019-2020 at $741 million but the spending per resident has remained fairly stable and the budget for 2024-2025 was $822 million. https://www.cjcj.org/media/import/d...pend_more_get_less_from_their_police_dept.pdf

And if the police were focused on other areas, you would think the numbers would reflect that. They do have a very high rate for solving murders. But we only had 35 murders last year. In 2023, for reported assaults, they arrested a suspect 37% of the time. For robberies, they arrested a suspect 20% of the time. There's also a pervasive attitude of not reporting assaults and robberies because it's accepted that the police won't make an effort. Many people are discouraged from reporting by the officers themselves. https://sfist.com/2024/10/09/stats-...st-in-the-state-at-solving-most-other-crimes/

Anyway, the policing is a tangent off the self-driving cars but I think it is one more reason why self-driving cars can save lives and money. If the roads become fully autonomous vehicles, there would be little need for enforcement. Every day in the U.S., over 100 people die in car accidents and over 7,000 go to the ER for injuries. Fully autonomous roads could theoretically bring those numbers very close to 0 and in the case of some huge malfunction, it would merely match what is our currently accepted daily average.

But there are only 800 Waymos in San Francisco. I have no doubt that you are correct that self driving cars can and will save lives and money, I am not sure that 97% reduction is because of those driverless cars

 

[Caveman33]

Self driving cars are so much safer than humans. Over a decade, yearly traffic citations in SF went from 120K to 4K, a 97% reduction

Thanks.

Do you have a link?

And to make sure I understand, you're saying total citations of all kinds of cars went from 120,000 to 4,000 over 10 years? Are there enough fully self-driving cars on the road for that to be a cause?

https://x.com/OrinKerr/status/1779379994810257526 I've seen these numbers shared by a variety of sources, including local newspapers, and I trust they are accurate.

SF.gov has a traffic citation page but it does not appear to display total citations in a clear way. However, all the subgroups of citations type corroborate the 97% decline, such as, "San Francisco’s total stop sign citations have declined in the past few years. San Francisco has declined from close to 1,500 citations per 100,000 residents in 2014 to just under 50 in 2022." https://www.sf.gov/data--vision-zero-benchmarking-traffic-citations

I don't think self-driving cars are the cause of the rapid decline in traffic stops. San Francisco was already trending downward from 2014-2019. 120K to 40K, but there was a dramatic drop in the 2020s. Many other cities saw huge drops in the 2020s, almost 90% in Seattle, while some cities experienced more modest declines. Some people attribute this to covid-19, but if that were true, wouldn't the numbers have rebounded by now? I believe the primary cause was and is quiet quitting from the police in response to the protests.

More likely it is simply budget cuts and re-deployment away from traffic stops and toward other enforcement. But who really knows for sure.

That is a factor, but it looks insignificant when looking at the numbers. Between 2019-2021, they did reduce the traffic division from 69 officers to 45. But those 45 officers averaged 10 tickets per day. Not 10 tickets each--10 tickets total among all 45 officers assigned to traffic. https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/bayarea/heatherknight/article/sfpd-traffic-tickets-17355651.php

The police budget did temporarily peak in 2019-2020 at $741 million but the spending per resident has remained fairly stable and the budget for 2024-2025 was $822 million. https://www.cjcj.org/media/import/d...pend_more_get_less_from_their_police_dept.pdf

And if the police were focused on other areas, you would think the numbers would reflect that. They do have a very high rate for solving murders. But we only had 35 murders last year. In 2023, for reported assaults, they arrested a suspect 37% of the time. For robberies, they arrested a suspect 20% of the time. There's also a pervasive attitude of not reporting assaults and robberies because it's accepted that the police won't make an effort. Many people are discouraged from reporting by the officers themselves. https://sfist.com/2024/10/09/stats-...st-in-the-state-at-solving-most-other-crimes/

Anyway, the policing is a tangent off the self-driving cars but I think it is one more reason why self-driving cars can save lives and money. If the roads become fully autonomous vehicles, there would be little need for enforcement. Every day in the U.S., over 100 people die in car accidents and over 7,000 go to the ER for injuries. Fully autonomous roads could theoretically bring those numbers very close to 0 and in the case of some huge malfunction, it would merely match what is our currently accepted daily average.

But there are only 800 Waymos in San Francisco. I have no doubt that you are correct that self driving cars can and will save lives and money, I am not sure that 97% reduction is because of those driverless cars

Oh, the reduction is definitely not because of the Waymos. As someone who walks around a lot, I've never been in a city with more reckless driving, running stop signs, illegal U-turns, etc. If the police wanted to issue citations, it would be like shooting fish in a barrel. The reason for the 97% reduction is directly related to city policies and the police force's reaction to those policies. The city is finally experiencing budget problems so they are pressuring the police department to actually start issuing tickets again. But that pressure from the Mayor's office may not be enough to fully counteract the mindset of "Well if the public doesn't appreciate us and paint us a certain way, then we'll show them by just sitting around" which took hold over the last 10 years.

 

[Sand]

One thing where I think the Robotaxis will be fantastic is for elderly people who probably shouldn't be driving but can still live independently.

If only they offered the service for the many drivers of lifted trucks around here in Alabama.

 

[TripItUp]

Doubtful until the price point becomes affordable. I had a tough time shelling out 35k for a new car lol

50 years from now I believe most families will opt out of owning their own car. It will be more cost effective to not own.

Do you mean most families that now own a car will move towards a Tesla Robotaxi, or Waymo-type solution?

yes, a susbscription model....particularly in urban areas.

No garage/parking requirements
No auto insurance(or reduced)
No energy(gas or electric)
No maintenance
No depreciation
No cleaning

Too many cost benefits to offset any minor inconvenience....especially for lower and middle class families.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Doubtful until the price point becomes affordable. I had a tough time shelling out 35k for a new car lol

50 years from now I believe most families will opt out of owning their own car. It will be more cost effective to not own.

Do you mean most families that now own a car will move towards a Tesla Robotaxi, or Waymo-type solution?

yes, a susbscription model....particularly in urban areas.

No garage/parking
No auto insurance(or reduced)
No energy(gas or electric)
No maintenance
No depreciation
No cleaning

Too many cost benefits to offset any minor inconvenience....especially for lower and middle class families.

Yeah I seen the same scenario at a seminar a few years back, and on top of that it will likely be fleets owned by Uber, Amazon, etc

I could see there being a limited number of base models (car, suv, truck) and then different interiors for economy vs luxury

 

[TripItUp]

I do believe upper class folks and rural folks will continue to use traditional cars for the foreseeable future. Upper class probably a mix - will use both driverless and traditional.

 

[Kanil]

I'm 100% ready for automated vehicles. Imagine your commute time being productive. Theoretically, for a 9-5 job with a 45 minute commute, you could leave the house at 7:55, setup your hotspot and laptop, and work during your commute. Leave work at 4:15, work during your commute. Zero time wasted on travel gives you back 1.5 hours each day. Rough math tells me that's about 16 days per year you get back. Over 40 years, that's 1.75 YEARS. When time is your most valuable currency, I can't think of anything better.

One random thought I had: I do think it will be interesting when we have two self-driving cars from different services get into an accident and both try to blame each other during the inevitable lawsuit.