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Shark Pool Player Rankings Contest - Interest Check (1 Viewer)

What Should the Scoring System Be?

  • Standard

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • PPR

    Votes: 12 80.0%
  • Half PPR

    Votes: 2 13.3%

  • Total voters
    15

Scoresman

Footballguy
Anyone who knows me from the FFA knows I like lists and compiling lists. This gave me the idea to do something similar in the Shark Pool and I'd like to see if there's interest.

I know a number of people here do their own player rankings. Let's have a little friendly competition to see whose rankings come out on top at the end of the NFL season. Fantsypros.com does this with many of the major experts in the industry.

We can do two things with this

1) Over the summer, we can have a Shark Pool consensus ranking by position based on the average of individual rankings.
2) At the end of the season, I score everyone's rankings and we see who are the best prognosticators on the board.

The way it would work is you compile your rankings and submit them to me via google sheet or excel. I'm thinking just the 4 major positions, QB/RB/WR/TE. We would decide how many at each position later. That's all you would have to do. For the consensus rankings, I would average everyone's rankings, and share consensus Shark Pool rankings to discuss, etc. The rankings could be updated periodically over the summer as people update them.

But the meat of this would be the contest. Everyone's final rankings would be due before the beginning of the first game, and then compared to actual player results at the end of the season. For scoring the rankings, I would use fantasypro's methodology, described here. Unless there's a better way of doing it out there. It's just comparing the final season outcome for each player to everyone's rankings. Everyone gets a score and we tabulate. We can even compare our individual results and the SP consensus to top industry experts!

This would not have any prize money associated, nor is it officially sanctioned by FBG. This is just me as an excel nerd offering this, as I think it could be fun. The prize is bragging rights. This thread is just an interest check to see if there are people who want to participate. Post here if you'd be interested in submitting your rankings!
 
Before submitting our rankings, we all need to be on the same page as far as scoring. The link you provided says 1/2 PPR and that's pretty self-explanatory for RB/WR/TE.

.1 per receiving/rushing yd
6 per receiving/rushing TD
.5 per reception

My concern is about QB scoring.
4 or 6 per passing TD?
1 per 20 or 25 passing yards?
-1 or -2 per INT?

Let us know, because I want an early start on my rankings!
 
Before submitting our rankings, we all need to be on the same page as far as scoring. The link you provided says 1/2 PPR and that's pretty self-explanatory for RB/WR/TE.

.1 per receiving/rushing yd
6 per receiving/rushing TD
.5 per reception

My concern is about QB scoring.
4 or 6 per passing TD?
1 per 20 or 25 passing yards?
-1 or -2 per INT?

Let us know, because I want an early start on my rankings!

To keep it simple, either standard scoring or PPR. Or half ppr? Maybe I should've made a poll, but people can chime in with preference and I'll make the executive decision soon.

For QB I might lean 4 pt TDs, 1 per 25, -2 in, but again want to hear preferences.

Definitely enough interest for this to happen!
 
There will be a separate thread for the actual contest, but for those of you who want to start early, here's some notes on the format for submitting.

You'll essentially need to submit 4 ranked lists, one each for QB, RB, WR, TE. You dont need to make an overall ranking list combining everyone. The rankings are scored by position. We will have winners for each position and an overall winner. The overall winner is determined by adding up the scores of all 4 positions.

For submitting, I just need the ranked list with highest ranked player on top, lowest on bottom. These are just rankings, no projections or fantasy points included. Here is an example google sheet with what I need. Very simple. Feel free to make a copy of this and use it.

For the player names, it would be great if everyone used the names as shown on fantasypros.com's rankings for consistency. At the very least, please include first and last names. Some players have suffixes like Patrick Mahomes II or Deebo Samuel Sr. I will need to make sure everyone's players match exactly for the scoring to work.

In terms of how many players to rank this is up to you. The link I posted above describes how I will be determining the final player pool for scoring. It's basically the intersection of the preseason expert consensus ranking (which will be our consensus, we're the experts here) and the final season leaders. I will be doing approximately 25 QB, 60-70 RB/WR, and 25 TE. The scoring method is good enough that it does not penalize anyone for a really deep set of rankings or a smaller set (within reason). The link above goes into detail about scenarios where a player is in the scoring pool that you did not have ranked and vice versa. I suggest everyone read and understand it. I'm happy to answer questions.

I may or may not do checks to make sure no one is doing a rankings dump out of Draft Dominator or anything. But at the end of the day, with no real monetary prize, the prize is knowing that you are good at fantasy football and if you cheat, you will have to live with that!
 
If you are asking for preferences, I want the scoring to be the same as the Subscriber Contest. That way I won't have to readjust my rankings.

Player Scoring for QB, RB, WR, TE

  • Passing TDs = 6 points
  • Interceptions Thrown = -1 points
  • Rushing TD = 6 points
  • Receiving TD = 6 points
  • Passing Yardage = .05 points per yard
  • Rushing Yardage = .10 points per yard
  • Receiving Yardage = .10 points per yard
  • Receptions for RB = 0.5 points
  • Receptions for WR = 1.0 points
  • Receptions for TE = 1.5 points

But, whatever scoring you do select, I am fine with.
 
If you are asking for preferences, I want the scoring to be the same as the Subscriber Contest. That way I won't have to readjust my rankings.

Player Scoring for QB, RB, WR, TE

  • Passing TDs = 6 points
  • Interceptions Thrown = -1 points
  • Rushing TD = 6 points
  • Receiving TD = 6 points
  • Passing Yardage = .05 points per yard
  • Rushing Yardage = .10 points per yard
  • Receiving Yardage = .10 points per yard
  • Receptions for RB = 0.5 points
  • Receptions for WR = 1.0 points
  • Receptions for TE = 1.5 points

But, whatever scoring you do select, I am fine with.

Honestly, I don't think I'd go with this since it's pretty non-standard and want to avoid confusion. Another reason is I'll have to take a 3 year scoring average by rank as part of the contest scoring, and this data is easily available for Standard and PPR, but not for the contest format.

We pretty much have to do Standard, PPR, or half-PPR.
 
I will be doing approximately 25 QB, 60-70 RB/WR, and 25 TE.
To make this easier on you I think it would be beneficial to say you have to rank X QB, Y RB, Z WR, and W TE. Make it an exact number that everybody has to rank to. I wouldn't leave it open ended. It's not hard to work to an exact number for something like this (as long as it's not something like 400 Wr's or 80 QB's).
 
I voted PPR, but whatever system we use, please list out the entire scoring system. For example, if we go with standard vs PPR, what is different with QB scoring?
 
I do not do my own rankings. My interest in this is solely based on the end of year results. Interested to see who among the shark poolers is more accurate......this year at least.
 
Looks like PPR is going to win, so let's go with that. Also, since I'm using fantasypros data for this, let's use their specific scoring system for PPR

Rushing/Receiving TDs 6 points
Rushing/Receiving Yards 1 point for every 10 yards
Receptions 1 points
Passing TDs 4 points
Passing Interceptions Thrown Negative 1 point
Passing Yards 1 point for every 25 yards

Also, I'll take Gally's advice to be safe and cap the rankings to set requirements.

25 QB
50 RB
60 WR
20 TE


TBD.

I'll be making a separate thread for the actual contest within the next day, but this can hopefully get people started.
 
Last edited:
OK, I'm having second thoughts about capping the number of players to be ranked. Mainly because the way the scoring works for players that end up high in the final standings that people may not have included in their rankings. Here's an example given from fantasypro's methodology.

"The reason for this distinction is that we do not want to unfairly punish experts who have a deep set of rankings. For example, in 2019, Raheem Mostert had a preseason Expert Consensus Ranking(ECR) of RB #103 and finished the season as RB #27 based on fantasy points scored. He qualified for the pool of evaluated players due to his actual production. For an expert who ranked 60 RBs and didn’t include Mostert, it would be unreasonable to assume that Mostert would have been his or her RB #61. Instead, we slot Mostert as their RB #104 since that is a fair expectation of the expert’s valuation based upon the industry consensus opinion."

Using the example given above, if I cap RBs at 50, and someone didnt have Mostert in their top 50, they would be given the default rank of 104. But say they actually had Mostert ranked 75th, giving them a rank of 104 seems unfair.

Other than checking names, it's not any more work for me to let people rank however many they want to (within reason).
 
Our lists are total points; not points per game, correct?

It doesnt really matter. They are just ranked player lists that you would use in a fantasy football draft with the same scoring rules. If you prefer to rank players for that per game vs. total that's up to you.
 
Our lists are total points; not points per game, correct?

It doesnt really matter. They are just ranked player lists that you would use in a fantasy football draft with the same scoring rules. If you prefer to rank players for that per game vs. total that's up to you.
But how are you going to distinguish from one to the other? For example, let's say I put CMC as my RB1 and you put him as your RB100. He goes out, gets 25 points, then tears his ACL on the final play of game 1. He can finish as both the RB1 and the RB100, so we both guessed correctly, right? Joe Milton and Jimmy Garoppolo were both QB1's last year, if PPG is what we are ranking by.
 
Our lists are total points; not points per game, correct?

It doesnt really matter. They are just ranked player lists that you would use in a fantasy football draft with the same scoring rules. If you prefer to rank players for that per game vs. total that's up to you.
But how are you going to distinguish from one to the other? For example, let's say I put CMC as my RB1 and you put him as your RB100. He goes out, gets 25 points, then tears his ACL on the final play of game 1. He can finish as both the RB1 and the RB100, so we both guessed correctly, right? Joe Milton and Jimmy Garoppolo were both QB1's last year, if PPG is what we are ranking by.

Ah, I see. For scoring I use total points. It's explained in the link but basically I use a 3 year average of total points for each rank at each position and use that as the baseline for comparison.

The experts’ rankings are evaluated by assigning a projected point value to each player based on the historical production (rolling 3-year average) of the rank slot the expert gave the player. We then compare these projected point totals to every player’s actual point production (again, using a 3-year average) to generate an “Accuracy Gap” for the expert’s predictions. The closer this value is to zero for a player, the better it is for the expert because it indicates their prediction was closer to the player’s actual point production. Another way to think of the “Accuracy Gap” is as the expert’s “Error” for each prediction. A perfect gap would be 0, indicating that there was no error between the expert’s predicted rank and the player’s actual rank. We use a 3-year average for these values to smooth out outliers (e.g. Christian McCaffrey going bonkers in 2019).
 
Ah, I see. For scoring I use total points. It's explained in the link but basically I use a 3 year average of total points for each rank at each position and use that as the baseline for comparison.
I am not understanding why this is necessary. I think I am missing something. Aren't we just making a list of 1 to X? Then comparing our ranking to actual finish? So actual points are irrelevant?

For example, here is my RB Ranks
  1. Barry Sanders
  2. Walter Payton
  3. Jim Brown
  4. Marshall Faulk
  5. Tomlinson
Actual ranks:
Sanders - 4
Payton - 1
Brown - 25
Faulk - 7
Tomlinson - 5

I would have missed by the following:
Sanders - 3
Payton - 1
Brown - 22
Faulk - 3
Tomlinson - 0

Total missed by: 29

Guys with lowest absolute value of missed spots wins?
 
Ah, I see. For scoring I use total points. It's explained in the link but basically I use a 3 year average of total points for each rank at each position and use that as the baseline for comparison.
I am not understanding why this is necessary. I think I am missing something. Aren't we just making a list of 1 to X? Then comparing our ranking to actual finish? So actual points are irrelevant?

For example, here is my RB Ranks
  1. Barry Sanders
  2. Walter Payton
  3. Jim Brown
  4. Marshall Faulk
  5. Tomlinson
Actual ranks:
Sanders - 4
Payton - 1
Brown - 25
Faulk - 7
Tomlinson - 5

I would have missed by the following:
Sanders - 3
Payton - 1
Brown - 22
Faulk - 3
Tomlinson - 0

Total missed by: 29

Guys with lowest absolute value of missed spots wins?

The short answer is because it's the way fantasypro's describes their process and I dont want to screw anything up doing it differently.

But in thinking about it, assigning points and using that to score would give more accuracy to the scores when it comes to tiers. Say there is a huge gap from the third ranked QB to the 4th. Just using ranks, ranking that third QB as 4th instead of 3rd would have equal weighting as ranking say the 5th QB as 6th. But using points, it becomes much more valuable to get that third ranked QB correct and is worth more than getting the positions correct when the gap between each is tiny.
 
But in thinking about it, assigning points and using that to score would give more accuracy to the scores when it comes to tiers.
But we aren't ranking tiers. We are just making a straight list of 1 to X. I guess I am still a little lost here.

So you will be comparing the actual pts scored for the guy that I ranked QB5 to the 3-yr average of the actual QB5 for the last three years? and that difference is how far off I was? what if the actual QB5 pts for this year was a wide gap over the QB5 from the last 3 years where the QB4 and QB 10 are much closer to the historical 3-yr value?

I apologize for my ignorance here. I am just trying to understand what we are trying to do. My intial thought is I am just trying to list QB's from 1 to X and the gaps in tiers is really irrelevant because they can be so varying as to where they happen and since we aren't predicting big gaps in this exercise I am not sure why that is being factored in.

Again, I am sorry if I am being difficult. Just trying to learn something.
 
But in thinking about it, assigning points and using that to score would give more accuracy to the scores when it comes to tiers.
But we aren't ranking tiers. We are just making a straight list of 1 to X. I guess I am still a little lost here.

So you will be comparing the actual pts scored for the guy that I ranked QB5 to the 3-yr average of the actual QB5 for the last three years? and that difference is how far off I was? what if the actual QB5 pts for this year was a wide gap over the QB5 from the last 3 years where the QB4 and QB 10 are much closer to the historical 3-yr value?

I apologize for my ignorance here. I am just trying to understand what we are trying to do. My intial thought is I am just trying to list QB's from 1 to X and the gaps in tiers is really irrelevant because they can be so varying as to where they happen and since we aren't predicting big gaps in this exercise I am not sure why that is being factored in.

Again, I am sorry if I am being difficult. Just trying to learn something.

You are correct in that we are not ranking tiers. It is players 1 to X.

It's described here pretty well under Step 3, and I duplicated this entire process to score my own rankings from last year, but it is admittedly hard to put to words.

Say for example these are the top 5 QBs and their actual 2025 fantasy points.

Mahomes 430
Hurts 429
Jackson 427
Daniels 375
Mayfield 369

There is a clear tier break after Jackson.

If we just score based on ranks, then correctly ranking Jackson as 3rd means the same as correctly ranking Daniels 4th or Mayfield 5th. But because there is such a distinct tier, correctly placing Jackson 3rd should be worth quite a bit. If you use points scored,

Another way to look at it, I did the 3 year averages just today and it turns out QB1 has been in a tier of his own the past 3 years at 425 points. If this continues, and you correctly guess QB1, that is really valuable! If we just did ranks it would be worth the same as correctly guessing QB8.
 
Say for example these are the top 5 QBs and their actual 2025 fantasy points.

Mahomes 430
Hurts 429
Jackson 427
Daniels 375
Mayfield 369

There is a clear tier break after Jackson.

If we just score based on ranks, then correctly ranking Jackson as 3rd means the same as correctly ranking Daniels 4th or Mayfield 5th. But because there is such a distinct tier, correctly placing Jackson 3rd should be worth quite a bit. If you use points scored,

Another way to look at it, I did the 3 year averages just today and it turns out QB1 has been in a tier of his own the past 3 years at 425 points. If this continues, and you correctly guess QB1, that is really valuable! If we just did ranks it would be worth the same as correctly guessing QB8
I understand now what is being done but I think there is a significant flaw in this approach. What happens if you predicted Jackson as QB3 but he scored 350 pts and the QB3 rolling average was 420 pts? You get huge ding but yet you were right. He was QB3.

I think this method would be much better suited for rankings that included pts scored. I think delving into pts scored when you aren't providing projected points as part of the ranking is a false comparison. It's like comparing apples to oranges (in my mind at least).

The goal is to get the order right. Being off one is being off one. Doesn't really matter that pts for a particular slot is that varied because this year may just be way off to the historical point totals for various tier breaks.

Just my two cents. It doesn't really matter as this is just a fun exercise no matter what and I thank you for putting it all together.
 
Say for example these are the top 5 QBs and their actual 2025 fantasy points.

Mahomes 430
Hurts 429
Jackson 427
Daniels 375
Mayfield 369

There is a clear tier break after Jackson.

If we just score based on ranks, then correctly ranking Jackson as 3rd means the same as correctly ranking Daniels 4th or Mayfield 5th. But because there is such a distinct tier, correctly placing Jackson 3rd should be worth quite a bit. If you use points scored,

Another way to look at it, I did the 3 year averages just today and it turns out QB1 has been in a tier of his own the past 3 years at 425 points. If this continues, and you correctly guess QB1, that is really valuable! If we just did ranks it would be worth the same as correctly guessing QB8
I understand now what is being done but I think there is a significant flaw in this approach. What happens if you predicted Jackson as QB3 but he scored 350 pts and the QB3 rolling average was 420 pts? You get huge ding but yet you were right. He was QB3.

I think this method would be much better suited for rankings that included pts scored. I think delving into pts scored when you aren't providing projected points as part of the ranking is a false comparison. It's like comparing apples to oranges (in my mind at least).

The goal is to get the order right. Being off one is being off one. Doesn't really matter that pts for a particular slot is that varied because this year may just be way off to the historical point totals for various tier breaks.

Just my two cents. It doesn't really matter as this is just a fun exercise no matter what and I thank you for putting it all together.
As long as we are all using the same scoring system, putting our players in order of how we think they will finish for total points, that's all that matters to me.
 
Say for example these are the top 5 QBs and their actual 2025 fantasy points.

Mahomes 430
Hurts 429
Jackson 427
Daniels 375
Mayfield 369

There is a clear tier break after Jackson.

If we just score based on ranks, then correctly ranking Jackson as 3rd means the same as correctly ranking Daniels 4th or Mayfield 5th. But because there is such a distinct tier, correctly placing Jackson 3rd should be worth quite a bit. If you use points scored,

Another way to look at it, I did the 3 year averages just today and it turns out QB1 has been in a tier of his own the past 3 years at 425 points. If this continues, and you correctly guess QB1, that is really valuable! If we just did ranks it would be worth the same as correctly guessing QB8
I understand now what is being done but I think there is a significant flaw in this approach. What happens if you predicted Jackson as QB3 but he scored 350 pts and the QB3 rolling average was 420 pts? You get huge ding but yet you were right. He was QB3.

I think this method would be much better suited for rankings that included pts scored. I think delving into pts scored when you aren't providing projected points as part of the ranking is a false comparison. It's like comparing apples to oranges (in my mind at least).

The goal is to get the order right. Being off one is being off one. Doesn't really matter that pts for a particular slot is that varied because this year may just be way off to the historical point totals for various tier breaks.

Just my two cents. It doesn't really matter as this is just a fun exercise no matter what and I thank you for putting it all together.
I did find that kind of odd the way the error is calculated. Not like big-deal odd, but odd.
 
Say for example these are the top 5 QBs and their actual 2025 fantasy points.

Mahomes 430
Hurts 429
Jackson 427
Daniels 375
Mayfield 369

There is a clear tier break after Jackson.

If we just score based on ranks, then correctly ranking Jackson as 3rd means the same as correctly ranking Daniels 4th or Mayfield 5th. But because there is such a distinct tier, correctly placing Jackson 3rd should be worth quite a bit. If you use points scored,

Another way to look at it, I did the 3 year averages just today and it turns out QB1 has been in a tier of his own the past 3 years at 425 points. If this continues, and you correctly guess QB1, that is really valuable! If we just did ranks it would be worth the same as correctly guessing QB8
I understand now what is being done but I think there is a significant flaw in this approach. What happens if you predicted Jackson as QB3 but he scored 350 pts and the QB3 rolling average was 420 pts? You get huge ding but yet you were right. He was QB3.

I think this method would be much better suited for rankings that included pts scored. I think delving into pts scored when you aren't providing projected points as part of the ranking is a false comparison. It's like comparing apples to oranges (in my mind at least).

The goal is to get the order right. Being off one is being off one. Doesn't really matter that pts for a particular slot is that varied because this year may just be way off to the historical point totals for various tier breaks.

Just my two cents. It doesn't really matter as this is just a fun exercise no matter what and I thank you for putting it all together.

In your example, yes you get a ding, but by correctly ranking him 3rd, you get less of a ding than others who did not rank him third since we all compare against the same average. And if there is a significant tier gap, then anyone who didn't rank him third is in an even bigger hole.

I may not be explaining it right, but I also feel if this was hugely flawed, the ~200 experts who let fantasypros rate them would be up in arms.
 
I think I will be defaulting to not having everyone's rankings be publicly viewable. Some of us may be in Shark Pool leagues together and may not want their rankings out there. If anyone wants to share their rankings, they are free to.

I will also be giving standings updates periodically throughout the season by prorating the to date stats over the entire season. This will be especially fun after week 1 where someone like Audric Estime randomly gets 150/2 TDs and is RB1.
 
I think I will be defaulting to not having everyone's rankings be publicly viewable. Some of us may be in Shark Pool leagues together and may not want their rankings out there. If anyone wants to share their rankings, they are free to.

I will also be giving standings updates periodically throughout the season by prorating the to date stats over the entire season. This will be especially fun after week 1 where someone like Audric Estime randomly gets 150/2 TDs and is RB1.
I expect to finish last in accuracy, because I am gonna be taking more stands than court witnesses.
 
I think I will be defaulting to not having everyone's rankings be publicly viewable. Some of us may be in Shark Pool leagues together and may not want their rankings out there. If anyone wants to share their rankings, they are free to.

I will also be giving standings updates periodically throughout the season by prorating the to date stats over the entire season. This will be especially fun after week 1 where someone like Audric Estime randomly gets 150/2 TDs and is RB1.
I'll plan to post mine after all the submissions, but maybe I'll feel frisky and do earlier. I plan to do my usual "biggest differences vs consensus" thread anyway.
 
A couple of key things for those starting early. I may not have time to start the actual thread until after my vacation next week.

I've decided for now that the position limits I previously posted are now MINIMUMS. So, please make sure your rankings have at a minimum the following number of players.

25 QB
50 RB
60 WR
20 TE

The player pool that everyone's rankings will be measured against is the intersection of the top X fantasy scorers at each position and the top X from our consensus rankings. "X" differs by position. 25 for QB, 50 for RB, 60 for WR, and 20 for TE. This is done to ensure the player pool consists of surprise studs AND busts. Since it's the intersection of two lists, this means the final player pool at each position will be a little more than the X values. Last year, these were the player pool counts by position.

QB 30
RB 62
WR 77
TE 28

The number of players I submit will probably be closer to these numbers than the minimums.

I encourage everyone to read Step 3 of the scoring methodology, especially to understand how scoring works in the event you do not have a player ranked that is in the player pool.
 
Just verifying scoring before we move on to our lists.

We are using total points

Rushing/Receiving TDs 6 points
Rushing/Receiving Yards 1 point for every 10 yards
Receptions 1 points
Passing TDs 4 points
Passing Interceptions Thrown Negative 1 point
Passing Yards 1 point for every 25 yards
 
Just verifying scoring before we move on to our lists.

We are using total points

Rushing/Receiving TDs 6 points
Rushing/Receiving Yards 1 point for every 10 yards
Receptions 1 points
Passing TDs 4 points
Passing Interceptions Thrown Negative 1 point
Passing Yards 1 point for every 25 yards

This is correct.
 
When will these lists be due? My rankings on June 15th will differ significantly from August 15, for example.

You have until kickoff of the first game to submit for the contest.

If enough people submit early though, Shark Pool consensus rankings can be calculated and discussed which might be fun.

Everyone can resubmit their final rankings before the deadline even if you submit early. Whatever the most recent rankings submitted will be used for the contest.
 
Here are my initial TE rankings. I went 28 deep, only because that was a number on your post

1 - Trey McBride - I wrestled with Bowers & McBride for the top spot. Last year, McBride was actually better in PPG, but played 1 less game. And his 2 TD's has more room to grow.
2 - Brock Bowers - QB upgrade - yes. But LV was 4th in pass attempts, and I expect that to drop. Add in Jeanty, who will also demand targets, and I give the slight edge to McBride.
3 - George Kittle - He is closer to TE1 than TE4 IMO. But we are ranking by total points vs PPG. Kittle has missed games to injury in 6 of 8 seasons, and that must be accounted for.
4 - Sam LaPorta - Targets dropped 37 from rookie season, yet still finished TE7 last year. Not a big difference between him and the next few on the list.
5 - David Njoku - My hardest TE1 to place due to QB situation. But hey, the ball has to be thrown, and who else besides Jeudy is going to catch it?
6 - Jonnu Smith - Had a remarkable TE4 finish last year. This ranking assumes he stays with the Dolphins. He's aging slower than Tyreek too.
7 - Travis Kelce - The last time he finished outside the top 5 was a decade ago. But he turns 36 during the season, and is his mind/body 100% on football now?
8 - TJ Hockenson - I would love to move him up, but with JJ, Addison, and Jones in the mix, how high can he go with essentially a rookie QB?
9 - Mark Andrews - There is no way he finishes here, but have to place him somewhere. If he has less than 5 TD's, I doubt he makes the top 28.
10 - Tucker Kraft - I got last year's TE10 as this year's TE10 because I am lazy.
11 - Evan Engram - Payton's "joker" talk has boosted his ADP, but I'm a bit more hesitant. Still a nice option, but not a mid-level TE1 to me.
12 - Dallas Goedert - 10, 14, 12, 10. Those are his last 4 seasons. 12 seems apt this year.
13 - Zach Ertz - Will turn 35 this year, but we all know TE's last forever (see #7 above). Did you know he was TE8 in targets last year?
14 - Colston Loveland - Hard to place the stud rookie any higher with a young QB, and WR's DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.
15 - Isaiah Likely - Wouldn't say having 2 BAL TE's in the top 15 is a flag plant, but not a huge fan of their other receiving options.
16 - Tyler Warren - I've been hunting for reasons to keep him lower, but Jonathan Taylor does not require targets to be a stud.
17 - Jake Ferguson - I dunno how he ended up this low, but he did.
18 - Dalton Kincaid - May have been a 1st round pick, but Allen distributes the ball and has enough decent targets.
19 - Kyle Pitts - Wow! Did I really rank him this low? No, he did. He finished TE23 in PPG last year, and I think RB's/Mooney will demand more targets.
20 - Brenton Strange - This guy is so so hard to rank. 1 game with 12 targets, and no other games above 6? I dunno
21 - Pat Freiermuth - I could easily move him up a handful of places, but we're only talking about 2 PPG between him and TE12
22 - Mike Gesicki - Battling with Chase Brown to be #4 target. Not much change from his TE19 finish in 2024.
23 - Chig Okonkwo - The WR2 spot is up for grabs in TEN, and it comes down to Pollard, Lockett, and Chig.
24 - Theo Johnson - 23 targets over his last 4 games in 2024. I like his chances with Russell Wilson.
25 - Hunter Henry - I know most have him way higher, but I think he gives way to Diggs and company.
26 - Tyler Higbee - Sure, it looks like he's the starter again in 2025, but hard to see him commanding targets.
27 - Ja'Tavion Sanders - Could be as low as 5th on the target chart in Carolina.
28 - Cade Otton - Only putting him here because of WR depth and RB receiving prowess. If injury to a stud, he skyrockets.

I reserve the right to change my rankings, and will surely do so before the season begins.
 
Here are my initial QB rankings. I went 30 deep, only because that was a number on your post. Added a bunch of little tiers.

1 - Lamar Jackson
2 - Josh Allen
TIER BREAK
3 - Jayden Daniels
4 - Jalen Hurts
5 - Joe Burrow
TIER BREAK
6 - Baker Mayfield
TIER BREAK
7 - Patrick Mahomes
8 - Bo Nix
TIER BREAK
9 - Dak Prescott
10 - Justin Fields
11 - Kyler Murray
12 - Jared Goff
13 - Trevor Lawrence
14 - Caleb Williams
TIER BREAK
15 - JJ McCarthy
16 - Brock Purdy
17 - Drake Maye
18 - Justin Herbert
TIER BREAK
19 - CJ Stroud
20 - Bryce Young
21 - Cam Ward
22 - Jordan Love
TIER BREAK
23 - Geno Smith
24 - Michael Penix
25 - Tua Tagovailoa
26 - Matthew Stafford
27 - Sam Darnold
28 - Daniel Jones
29 - Aaron Rodgers
30 - Russell Wilson

This will change drastically, but for now, here it is.
 

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