Sharks, D's and Kickers MATTER (1 Viewer)

[Homer]

99% of the ink and hot breath in discussing fantasy football is devoted to minutiae like "Who's better, Manning or Brees, Jones-Drew or Turner", blah, blah, blah.

Fast forward to week 15 & 16, and it's MATCHUPS and HEALTH that own those arguments. If you can predict THAT stuff in July, well, you can make a bit of coin with a fantasy 1-900 number?

Meanwhile, if somebody told you at the beginning of the year to roster the SF D at the beginning of the year because they are going to disembowel the Lions, you would be well on your way to being a little richer.

Yet there is almost zero discussion of D's on this board. WHY NOT? I realize most league scoring systems are different in that regard, but the fundamentals are basically all the same: Points allowed BAD, sacks, turnovers GOOD.

It's amazing to me the sheer volume of posts about the relative values of Dwayne Bowe vs. Michael Crabtree stuff that MIGHT net one 1-2 points on a weekly basis, yet .2 % of the bandwidth here is devoted to stuff like kickers and D's that can have ENORMOUS implications on the average fantasy matchup.

Is it because it's just "luck"? I am still playing in week 16 because Matt Prater was the 8th highest scoring player in my whole league last week (50+ yard field goals heavily weighted). We have ONE kicking thread here, and the main topic of discussion is "Who's going to lose one's job?"

If this is the SHARK pool, shouldn't there be more analysis about this stuff? All I ever see about this is from pre-season tout mags is "wait til the last round to pick a kicker or a d". That seems to be the party line here too?

 

[broncofan13000]

I always like to look at defensive matchups a week earlier and pluck them up before there is hype/bid bucks being spent. I'm not one to draft a Defense high, just play matchups all year.

 

[Homer]

I always like to look at defensive matchups a week earlier and pluck them up before there is hype/bid bucks being spent. I'm not one to draft a Defense high, just play matchups all year.

Re: playing matchups, shouldn't that be impossible whilst playing with "sharks"?Or do you pick them up 3-4 weeks in advance of the juicy matchups?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

People say that you shouldn't draft a kicker until your final pick. I disagree. You should use the pick before the final pick to draft a kicker. That way you're almost guaranteed one of the elite ones and can still pick up a sleeper defense in the final round.

 

[Hurl Bruce]

I won this week and am in the championship because my opponent and Jay Feely left at least 9 points on the board on botched FG attempts.

On the other hand, I picked up Rob Bironas after a bye week and he has been a monster down the stretch.

I also grabbed the 49er defense two weeks ago just for this week.

 

[brindrod]

Due to Bye week issues, I had to drop Nate Kaeding. Lost two games by a differential of 0.5 & 1.5 points. Games I would have won had I kept Kaeding instead of having to settle for Mason Crosby who seems to excel at missing field goals. Our league penalizes missed FGs. Solved the problem by acquiring Matt Prater where his 16 points (vs. Raiders) helped me to the finals last Sunday.

Every year that I have been competitive in my money league, it was because I had a solid fantasy defense. However, after that fat pig, Alge Crumpler, fell on Polamalu, my Steelers DEF was a bust after he had to get operated . Decided to roll the dice week after week 11 with WW pickups; Seahawks (wk 12), Bears (Wk 13), Dolphins (Wk 14), Seahawks (Wk 15). Seahawks stunk it up last week but in Week 12, they were lights out as were the Bears in Week 13.

This week, I will be acquiring the Falcons DEF (vs Bills) for the championship. My opponent will no doubt sit the Broncos (vs. Eagles) and try to acquire a WW DEF but he'll have to go with the likes of Colts, Chargers or Giants. I think the advantage will be mine in at that position. He does have Akers who has surprisingly been THE Top K according to our league rules.

Anybody who rode the Saints DEF until recently must have at least acquired a playoff spot this year.

 

[UnknownCoach]

They matter during the season, but not during the draft unless you are in a league with strict pickup rules. Sharks realize that kickers and defenses can be easily grabbed out of the FA pool that will produce just as many points as the first one drafted. You might not be plugging in the same defense or kicker every week, but you'll get great production without having to spend a draft pick.

 

[shredhead]

I have a unique situation in one of my leagues. It is a 24 team league with two 12 team conferences. Each conference holds a separate draft, meaning all the top players are rostered by 2 different teams. This isn't a big deal during the regular season, but once the playoffs roll around, you start seeing teams with the same player meet up against each other. Well, I am in the championship game this weekend, and my opponent has the same QB, RB, WR, and TE as me. We start 8 players and have 4 players in common. Our championship game comes down to the 4 players we have different (2 flex players, defense and kicker). Having an advantage at defense and kicker is going to be huge in this case.

 

[Black]

People say that you shouldn't draft a kicker until your final pick. I disagree. You should use the pick before the final pick to draft a kicker. That way you're almost guaranteed one of the elite ones and can still pick up a sleeper defense in the final round.

You don't draft a kicker early. You don't know what teams are going to put up alot of points, or get in the redzone and stall...you don't know that until a few weeks into the season. Then, after teams make adjustments (ie, TEN this year), a kicker can emerge (Bironas).Same with DEF. Pick a decent one, then watch the stats each week and adjust. You have to pay attention to key injuries (Palomalu). With regards to 'can you play the wire with sharks'....the answer is yes, because there are often a few good DEF matchups each week. But, you need to be a week or two ahead with your planning.So, yes, DEF and K matter. But you cannot predict them preseason, and you need to pay attention and work the wire. Just check each week and see how many kickers/DST are doing better than yours and watch the trends.This year, I drafted Elam (good kicker, indoor team, good offense) but then picked up Tynes after Elam started missing FGs (and when I was sure he'd lose his job). Then the Giants started bringing in kickers to challenge Tynes (who was still putting up decent points), so I bailed on Tynes and grabbed Bironas. In another league, however, I had Akers who got sniped when I dropped him for his BYE, and I struggled the rest of the year playing kicker roulette.My best DEF example is that I had the NYJ DEF for the first few weeks, and finally realized they were a good Real DEF, but not great for Fantasy. I scooped up the Saints and rode them until they lost their starting CBs, then played matchups.

 

[shredhead]

This year, I drafted Elam (good kicker, indoor team, good offense) but then picked up Tynes after Elam started missing FGs

X2

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Well I went out and switched from Tynes to Bironas around Week 10.

And I went out and held TEN just for Week 14. So in the first week of the playoffs together they scored 41 and I got a 27 point bump over my opponent. Which was nice.

Last week between Bironas and HOU DST I pulled out a 16 point advantage. Also nice.

This week, the SB, I have been preparing for. I have ARI, SF, CIN, and ATL (the first 3 I picked up weeks ago). This is the first time I have done this stacking of defenses but it seems to be working.

Does anyone have any thoughts on whether ARI or SF is the best play for maximum points this weekend?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

 

[just_want_2_win]

I always like to look at defensive matchups a week earlier and pluck them up before there is hype/bid bucks being spent. I'm not one to draft a Defense high, just play matchups all year.

Re: playing matchups, shouldn't that be impossible whilst playing with "sharks"?Or do you pick them up 3-4 weeks in advance of the juicy matchups?

No, even with sharks it's not impossible. Sharks know that D's and K's are largely fungible so I find them bouncing on and off the wire often. Also, with byes and injuries, I find that 1-2 weeks usually is all the advance time needed to net good plays; other teams have their hands forced by such events just like I do. I have carried 2 D's on several my teams this year for short periods figuring I'll get more out of that matchup D than out of a 5th RB or WR gathering dust on my bench even during byes. I am near the top in D scoring in each league -- #1 in D scoring in the league where I am playing for the championship this week. (Rolling with either AZ or ATL for that one). In this league I have used:Wk 1: Chargers vs. Raiders2: Chargers vs. Ravens (lost, would've won if had picked up Redskins like I considered doing)3: Broncos vs. Raiders4: 49ers vs. Rams5: 49ers vs. Falcons 6: Packers vs. Lions (picked up GB when they were dropped for bye issues)7: Packers vs. Browns8: Cards vs. Panthers (lost)9: Seahawks vs. Lions10: Broncos vs. Redskins (lost) (had Bengals' 22 vs. PIT on my bench)11. Bengals vs. Raiders12. Bengals vs. Browns13. Bengals vs. Lions14. Cards vs. SF (lost - had Titans but dropped them because I had clinched and used roster spot for a position player while holding Cards for Wks 15 & 16)15. Cards vs. Lions16. Cards vs. Rams or Falcons vs. BillsI got Broncos and 49ers because owners were hesitant to use them; especially with the Broncos, many doubted they were for real and felt the next game would expose them. I was able to play much the same sort of matchups in all my shark leagues, with some sprinklings of the Patriots and Bills in one particularly shark league. The Bengals were somewhat disappointing but using them in one league vs. KC this week.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

As everybody should by now know, fantasy defenses are very unpredictable from year to year.

I go mostly with waiver defenses, unless one of them looks studly. This year I went as much as possible with whomever was playing the Rams, Lions, Oakland, and sometimes KC, for the most part.

In my 10 team league:

I was first in Def scoring - 174 points

#1 Def was New Orleans - 164 points

I started:

Baltimore - 5g

San Fran - 2

Jax - 1

Buffalo - 1

Arizona - 3

Cincy - 3 (this week makes 4)

In my 12 team league:

2nd in Def scoring (182 points)

#1 Def was Philly - 174 points

N.England - 6g

San Fran - 2

Indy - 2 (this week probably makes 3)

S.Diego - 1

KC - 1

Houston - 1

Jax - 1

ETA: I usually roster only 1 defense, but I experimented this year with 2 or more... I liked how it worked out. I could keep the D that had 3 good matchups in the next 5 weeks, and use the other spot to play the weekly Defense lottery. I usually want to keep position player depth, but injuries gave me some roster space.

 

[Jim Durum]

Interesting stat to support the comments that D's are too volatile to predict in the draft:

In our league (using FBG pre-season projections and actual league scoring), I did the following.

1) Take current year performance

2) Subtract out the highest and lowest score for each defense (to filter one-off datapoints)

3) Rank according to remaining points to determine "best" and "worst" D's

4) Compare to ranking of D's from FBG pre-season projections

Of the teams predicted to be in the top 8, only three actually ended up in the top 8 (Vikings, Eagles, Ravens)

Of the teams predicted to be in the BOTTOM 8, 3 of them ended up being in the TOP 8! (Saints, Bengals, Broncos)

Incidentally, I did the same analysis except didn't subtract out the highest and lowest score for each team and ended up with the same result; the only change was that the 49ers replace the Bengals in the "bad" teams that did well (and the bengals just barely miss the top 8)

 

[thecardiackid]

every week (including this one) there's at least one thread devoted to WW D pickups for that week. i'm not sure about kickers, but agree they're a crap shoot anyway outside of crazy weather, etc.

why not start some threads vs. complaining they don't already exist?

went w/ CIN vs. KC

(over NYG, ATL & GB)

and

@ K - dropped Cundiff for Nedney vs. DET

 

[GiantsRule]

99% of the ink and hot breath in discussing fantasy football is devoted to minutiae like "Who's better, Manning or Brees, Jones-Drew or Turner", blah, blah, blah.Fast forward to week 15 & 16, and it's MATCHUPS and HEALTH that own those arguments. If you can predict THAT stuff in July, well, you can make a bit of coin with a fantasy 1-900 number?Meanwhile, if somebody told you at the beginning of the year to roster the SF D at the beginning of the year because they are going to disembowel the Lions, you would be well on your way to being a little richer.Yet there is almost zero discussion of D's on this board. WHY NOT? I realize most league scoring systems are different in that regard, but the fundamentals are basically all the same: Points allowed BAD, sacks, turnovers GOOD.It's amazing to me the sheer volume of posts about the relative values of Dwayne Bowe vs. Michael Crabtree stuff that MIGHT net one 1-2 points on a weekly basis, yet .2 % of the bandwidth here is devoted to stuff like kickers and D's that can have ENORMOUS implications on the average fantasy matchup.Is it because it's just "luck"? I am still playing in week 16 because Matt Prater was the 8th highest scoring player in my whole league last week (50+ yard field goals heavily weighted). We have ONE kicking thread here, and the main topic of discussion is "Who's going to lose one's job?"If this is the SHARK pool, shouldn't there be more analysis about this stuff? All I ever see about this is from pre-season tout mags is "wait til the last round to pick a kicker or a d". That seems to be the party line here too?

Without reading past this initial post, I can ask you what those fantasy owners who banked on Denver annihilating the Raiders at home last week feel like now that they're likely in the consolation bowl instead of the Super Bowl or counting the days until the next FF Index hits the stands. Or the guy who thought he would roll when he plucked Garrett Hartley off of waivers.The thing is: you never know with kickers and defenses in fantasy. You need to focus on your position player starters and then worry about the secondary slots like kicker and defense. I'm playing Cleveland this week because of their alleged sweet matchup at home vs. Oakland. I have no confidence in this play even though on paper, they seem like a better play than more consistent fantasy defense plays like Denver, New England, and Baltimore.Besides, if your opponent has Gore at home vs. Detroit AND AP on Monday night at the Bears, does it really matter what you're strategizing for defenses and kickers?!?

 

[Black]

In my 10 team league:I was first in Def scoring - 174 points#1 Def was New Orleans - 164 pointsIn my 12 team league:2nd in Def scoring (182 points)#1 Def was Philly - 174 points

Nice stats. Love to see the proof.

 

[Preds]

In my 10 team league:

I was first in Def scoring - 174 points

#1 Def was New Orleans - 164 points

In my 12 team league:

2nd in Def scoring (182 points)

#1 Def was Philly - 174 points

Nice stats. Love to see the proof.

I had similar results playing D's off the waiver wire.I scored 198.38 using 10 different D's and playing the matchups, whereas the #1 DT in our scoring system was New Orleans with 183.9.

FWIW, here are the 10 D's I used, many to good success, with a couple busts here and there.

# Franchise Player Total Starter Points # Games Avg

1. Parkwood Predators Titans, Tennessee TEN Def 49.28 2 24.640

2. Parkwood Predators 49ers, San Francisco SFO Def 35.3 2 17.650

3. Parkwood Predators Chargers, San Diego SDC Def 27.8 2 13.900

4. Parkwood Predators Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def 22.48 1 22.480

5. Parkwood Predators Colts, Indianapolis IND Def 20.82 1 20.820

6. Parkwood Predators Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def 19.42 3 6.473

7. Parkwood Predators Saints, New Orleans NOS Def 12.84 1 12.840

8. Parkwood Predators Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def 5.08 1 5.080

9. Parkwood Predators Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def 3.36 1 3.360

10. Parkwood Predators Raiders, Oakland OAK Def 2 1 2.000

 

[Gopher State]

every week (including this one) there's at least one thread devoted to WW D pickups for that week. i'm not sure about kickers, but agree they're a crap shoot anyway outside of crazy weather, etc. why not start some threads vs. complaining they don't already exist? went w/ CIN vs. KC(over NYG, ATL & GB)and@ K - dropped Cundiff for Nedney vs. DET

49ers K Joe Nedney (hamstring) has been ruled out for Week 16.San Francisco will instead roll with Ricky Schmitt, who's making his NFL debut Sunday against the Lions. Nedney has missed just four kicks all year.Source: Matt Maiocco on Twitter You might want to rethink the Nedney move

 

[thammond]

Due to Bye week issues, I had to drop Nate Kaeding. Lost two games by a differential of 0.5 & 1.5 points. Games I would have won had I kept Kaeding instead of having to settle for Mason Crosby who seems to excel at missing field goals. Our league penalizes missed FGs. Solved the problem by acquiring Matt Prater where his 16 points (vs. Raiders) helped me to the finals last Sunday. Every year that I have been competitive in my money league, it was because I had a solid fantasy defense. However, after that fat pig, Alge Crumpler, fell on Polamalu, my Steelers DEF was a bust after he had to get operated . Decided to roll the dice week after week 11 with WW pickups; Seahawks (wk 12), Bears (Wk 13), Dolphins (Wk 14), Seahawks (Wk 15). Seahawks stunk it up last week but in Week 12, they were lights out as were the Bears in Week 13. This week, I will be acquiring the Falcons DEF (vs Bills) for the championship. My opponent will no doubt sit the Broncos (vs. Eagles) and try to acquire a WW DEF but he'll have to go with the likes of Colts, Chargers or Giants. I think the advantage will be mine in at that position. He does have Akers who has surprisingly been THE Top K according to our league rules. Anybody who rode the Saints DEF until recently must have at least acquired a playoff spot this year.

Intresting insight about dropping Kaeding costing you two games. The question that I would have about that is did you keep anyone over Kaeding that you ended up never using?

 

[thecardiackid]

every week (including this one) there's at least one thread devoted to WW D pickups for that week. i'm not sure about kickers, but agree they're a crap shoot anyway outside of crazy weather, etc. why not start some threads vs. complaining they don't already exist? went w/ CIN vs. KC(over NYG, ATL & GB)and@ K - dropped Cundiff for Nedney vs. DET

49ers K Joe Nedney (hamstring) has been ruled out for Week 16.San Francisco will instead roll with Ricky Schmitt, who's making his NFL debut Sunday against the Lions. Nedney has missed just four kicks all year.Source: Matt Maiocco on Twitter You might want to rethink the Nedney move

oooof. that was a $2 donation to the WW fund that lasted about 3 hrs. - at least we're playing with house money now.and i liked that matchup w/ the nice weather. better the hammy goes on Wed., but I'm not rolling w/ the PS guy.maybe divine intervention?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

scmitt signs for injured nedney

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

some decent discussion from last week here.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...gent+gostkowski

 

[Basmati Ray Rice]

Attention to detail wins FF Superbowl.

Leave no stone unturned to gain an edge

Personaly I leave TE. K and Ds to the last 3 rounds of the draft and play the waiver to improve those positions

Has served me well, 4 'ships in 10 years and a chance to win in the'ship this year

 

[shredhead]

Attention to detail wins FF Superbowl.Leave no stone unturned to gain an edgePersonaly I leave TE. K and Ds to the last 3 rounds of the draft and play the waiver to improve those positionsHas served me well, 4 'ships in 10 years and a chance to win in the'ship this year

Ahoy matey! Have a nice sail! Are you in the fantasy America's cup league?

 

[senor peso 2006]

Attention to detail wins FF Superbowl.Leave no stone unturned to gain an edgePersonaly I leave TE. K and Ds to the last 3 rounds of the draft and play the waiver to improve those positionsHas served me well, 4 'ships in 10 years and a chance to win in the'ship this year

I disagree on TE and D (but I also play in an IDP)I was fortunate to grab Clark in the 7th round (after gates, wittin, and a few others). Then I usally look at my first defender around the 8th or 9th round. Since we reward special teams return yards, I look for starting DBs that return kicks, then take the best LBs. This year there weren't any strong DB/returner, so I focused in on LBs. Started with Patrick Willis, DJ Williams, London Fletcher and picked up Larunenitis late. Traded for Beason with Choice and had my d set. In a 10 team start four I have 4 of the top 10 and basicly have had the same all year. Not only does it give me a points advantage every week but I haven't had to waste funds on the waiver wire looking for replacements for guys who don't pan out. I find by paying attention to this early on and monitioring this weekly gives me about a 20 point advantage in these positions. I haven't had the same sucess as you but its given me 6 trips to the finals in 10 years (including this year) and 9 out of 10 to playoffs.

 

[tigerz]

Wow, in my leagues it is commonplace for the better fantasy teams to have multiple defenses. Even if you had stud defenses like Eagles, Ravens, and Vikings. Of course, we get a lot of points for defense, top 5 are 291, 267, 263, 260, and 255. That's around the same as Kurt Warner, AP, and Ray Rice. I didn't draft one early, I actually grabbed Green Bay and Arizona off the waiver prior to week 1 and then picked up Broncos and Saints as they emerged in another league. I can't count the number of weeks I won thanks to great D, TE, Ks. Point are points, doesn't matter where you get them as long as you score more than your opponent. Oh and I draft kickers last and then steal ones like Kaeding when people drop them because of bye and then I don't have to worry for the rest of the year haha.

 

[akaoni]

Our DST scoring system scores -1 point per point allowed with pretty standard scoring for other positions and we have a lot of competition for DST units. Almost all teams draft 2 DSTs to start the year and many sleepers are picked up within the first few weeks. Generally, by week 4 the pickings are pretty slim. By the time we hit our trade/move deadline in week 10 I think there were like 4 DST units left on the wire all of them horrible. This means analyzing DST play and matchups is pretty crucial. DST performance can still be pretty inconsistent but the better players can usually figure out which DST units are solid (or have good scheduling match ups).

In our league, while DSTs are drafted earlier and more often than in more standard scoring leagues, they still generally fall in the later half of the draft (rounds 9-18). What is interesting is that in trades later in the season the value of a top DST unit in our league is generally on par with a #2 RB or WR and sometimes have even more value if it's a dominant squad. The scoring system really makes all the difference. Admittedly you can sometimes get screwed by a freak game here or there but I think overall our scoring system adds a really good dynamic to our league and it really rewards players who can predict (or luck into) good DST performances. Often these matchups are the first thing we're looking at from week to week, and for that reason DSTs are not undervalued.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

In my 10 team league:I was first in Def scoring - 174 points#1 Def was New Orleans - 164 pointsIn my 12 team league:2nd in Def scoring (182 points)#1 Def was Philly - 174 points

Nice stats. Love to see the proof.

I am sure the formatting will suck, but here it is...10 team league: D WK F.PTSBAL 1 4.00 vs Chiefs 27 26 The Brute Force - SSFR 2 6.00 vs Seahawks 13 10 The Brute Force - SBAL 3 16.00 vs Browns 28 30 The Brute Force - SSFR 4 41.00 vs Rams 13 30 The Brute Force - SBAL 5 12.00 vs Bengals 9 19 The Brute Force - SJAX 6 6.00 vs Rams 17 23 The Brute Force - SBUF 7 16.00 at Panthers 8 22 The Brute Force - SARI 8 0.00 vs Panthers 5 25 The Brute Force - S BAL 9 4.00 at Bengals 9 18 The Brute Force - SBAL 10 26.00 at Browns 25 31 The Brute Force - SCIN 11 7.00 at Raiders 20 32 The Brute Force - SCIN 12 7.00 vs Browns 23 31 The Brute Force - SCIN 13 16.00 vs Lions 25 20 The Brute Force - SARI 14 4.00 at 49ers 23 22 The Brute Force - SARI 15 9.00 at Lions 24 22 The Brute Force - SETA: not bothering with the other league, just more of the same. Yippee.

 

[Couch Potato]

99% of the ink and hot breath in discussing fantasy football is devoted to minutiae like "Who's better, Manning or Brees, Jones-Drew or Turner", blah, blah, blah.Fast forward to week 15 & 16, and it's MATCHUPS and HEALTH that own those arguments. If you can predict THAT stuff in July, well, you can make a bit of coin with a fantasy 1-900 number?Meanwhile, if somebody told you at the beginning of the year to roster the SF D at the beginning of the year because they are going to disembowel the Lions, you would be well on your way to being a little richer.Yet there is almost zero discussion of D's on this board. WHY NOT? I realize most league scoring systems are different in that regard, but the fundamentals are basically all the same: Points allowed BAD, sacks, turnovers GOOD.It's amazing to me the sheer volume of posts about the relative values of Dwayne Bowe vs. Michael Crabtree stuff that MIGHT net one 1-2 points on a weekly basis, yet .2 % of the bandwidth here is devoted to stuff like kickers and D's that can have ENORMOUS implications on the average fantasy matchup.Is it because it's just "luck"? I am still playing in week 16 because Matt Prater was the 8th highest scoring player in my whole league last week (50+ yard field goals heavily weighted). We have ONE kicking thread here, and the main topic of discussion is "Who's going to lose one's job?"If this is the SHARK pool, shouldn't there be more analysis about this stuff? All I ever see about this is from pre-season tout mags is "wait til the last round to pick a kicker or a d". That seems to be the party line here too?

Without reading past this initial post, I can ask you what those fantasy owners who banked on Denver annihilating the Raiders at home last week feel like now that they're likely in the consolation bowl instead of the Super Bowl or counting the days until the next FF Index hits the stands. Or the guy who thought he would roll when he plucked Garrett Hartley off of waivers.The thing is: you never know with kickers and defenses in fantasy. You need to focus on your position player starters and then worry about the secondary slots like kicker and defense. I'm playing Cleveland this week because of their alleged sweet matchup at home vs. Oakland. I have no confidence in this play even though on paper, they seem like a better play than more consistent fantasy defense plays like Denver, New England, and Baltimore.Besides, if your opponent has Gore at home vs. Detroit AND AP on Monday night at the Bears, does it really matter what you're strategizing for defenses and kickers?!?

Sure, cherry pick one game to make the point that focusing attention on defenses is a waste of time. Just great.You never KNOW with anybody in fantasy. I could just as easily find a stud QB, RB, or WR who had a bad week and tell you focusing on that position is a waste of time. The fact is, if you consistently go with what gives you your best shot, the law of averages says in the long run you will benefit. That works for DTs and PKs as well as the other positions.

 

[GiantsRule]

99% of the ink and hot breath in discussing fantasy football is devoted to minutiae like "Who's better, Manning or Brees, Jones-Drew or Turner", blah, blah, blah.

Fast forward to week 15 & 16, and it's MATCHUPS and HEALTH that own those arguments. If you can predict THAT stuff in July, well, you can make a bit of coin with a fantasy 1-900 number?

Meanwhile, if somebody told you at the beginning of the year to roster the SF D at the beginning of the year because they are going to disembowel the Lions, you would be well on your way to being a little richer.

Yet there is almost zero discussion of D's on this board. WHY NOT? I realize most league scoring systems are different in that regard, but the fundamentals are basically all the same: Points allowed BAD, sacks, turnovers GOOD.

It's amazing to me the sheer volume of posts about the relative values of Dwayne Bowe vs. Michael Crabtree stuff that MIGHT net one 1-2 points on a weekly basis, yet .2 % of the bandwidth here is devoted to stuff like kickers and D's that can have ENORMOUS implications on the average fantasy matchup.

Is it because it's just "luck"? I am still playing in week 16 because Matt Prater was the 8th highest scoring player in my whole league last week (50+ yard field goals heavily weighted). We have ONE kicking thread here, and the main topic of discussion is "Who's going to lose one's job?"

If this is the SHARK pool, shouldn't there be more analysis about this stuff? All I ever see about this is from pre-season tout mags is "wait til the last round to pick a kicker or a d". That seems to be the party line here too?

Without reading past this initial post, I can ask you what those fantasy owners who banked on Denver annihilating the Raiders at home last week feel like now that they're likely in the consolation bowl instead of the Super Bowl or counting the days until the next FF Index hits the stands. Or the guy who thought he would roll when he plucked Garrett Hartley off of waivers.The thing is: you never know with kickers and defenses in fantasy. You need to focus on your position player starters and then worry about the secondary slots like kicker and defense. I'm playing Cleveland this week because of their alleged sweet matchup at home vs. Oakland. I have no confidence in this play even though on paper, they seem like a better play than more consistent fantasy defense plays like Denver, New England, and Baltimore.

Besides, if your opponent has Gore at home vs. Detroit AND AP on Monday night at the Bears, does it really matter what you're strategizing for defenses and kickers?!?

Sure, cherry pick one game to make the point that focusing attention on defenses is a waste of time. Just great.You never KNOW with anybody in fantasy. I could just as easily find a stud QB, RB, or WR who had a bad week and tell you focusing on that position is a waste of time. The fact is, if you consistently go with what gives you your best shot, the law of averages says in the long run you will benefit. That works for DTs and PKs as well as the other positions.

I'm not getting into a "cancellation theory-type" arguement with you (it's 100% BS by the way if you're wondering where I stand).My point about this thread is it's ludicrous to paint everyone with the same brush and assume most of us don't look at every position before setting a lineup. It's not like we're thinking "eh, it's just a defense. I'll start Detroit and see what happens." Or "Shaun Suisham is playing his former team that cut him and it's Monday night so I get last licks!" I'm sure we're all trying to find every advantage possible at each position even if it means digging into the waiver wire during championship week.

But defense and kicker are two very random elements of fantasy football. Denver was one example of a great defensive matchup that turned out to be a dud (if you thought Charlie Frye would be competent at Denver, you're lying to yourself). Houston was another. 3 sacks, 2 turnovers. Unless you get credit for points allowed, I'm sure the 7 points was far less than anyone anticipated playing arguably the league's worst team led by Keith friggin Null! And kickers are even more difficult to account for. At least with defenses, you can look at a lousy turnover-prone offense they're playing and make an educated guess. Not so with kickers. You can look at teams that have a good red zone defense, but if the offense is down a ton of points and needs to go for TDs or can't even get in the red zone, it doesn't matter how efficient the kicker is.

And you're right: you never know with anybody in fantasy. But you can make a far more educated guess with position players than defensive/special team units or kickers. Do you honestly think what Frank Gore will do to Detroit this weekend is random? Or how Randy Moss will make Jaguar DBs cry? Or how Andre Johnson could easily hang 200 yards on the Miami secondary this weekend?

Bottom line: Don't make the assumption that you're one of the only ones thinking about non-position players in fantasy. It's just the other starting positions require much more consideration unless you have an absolutely stacked roster.

 

[Homer]

I think that rostering multiple D's and playing matchups and trying to improve throughout the year and focusing on late season matchups is crucial, as many others have said here. A comment that was made that "sharks know they'll usually have quality waiver wire options" is because there are guppies that let them mine the wire every week (or they play in very shallow leagues).

As far as strategy and DECISIONS go, the D one has started in the playoffs is about as important as things get in fantasy football. Everybody knows you start Gore and Peterson if you have them. Trading for teams matched up against the Rams and the Lions isn't quite as intuitive.

 

[thecardiackid]

I really don't see the problem here. We (FF owners) just treat kickers like NFL GM's do. Draft them as late as possible (unless you're Al Davis), drop them as needed (see Folk, Nick) and replace w/ some other equally uninspiring option - then hope for the best. W/ D-STs it's more complicated during the season. There's always a DTBC discussion in August here w/ some FBG content.

 

[Freakin'Farmer]

My local 12 team kind of takes playing the waiver wire matchup out of play as it requires each team to own 2 kickers and 2 defenses. I don't like it but we have a few owners that don't like to be constantly scouting the waiver wire for matchups. I was able to get SF and Denver off the waiver wire early on. I was the last to grab a kicker and played Folk most of the season and later picked up Stover off the waiver wire. I now have Janikouski and Vinatieri and am in the championship.

 

[brindrod]

Due to Bye week issues, I had to drop Nate Kaeding. Lost two games by a differential of 0.5 & 1.5 points. Games I would have won had I kept Kaeding instead of having to settle for Mason Crosby who seems to excel at missing field goals. Our league penalizes missed FGs. Solved the problem by acquiring Matt Prater where his 16 points (vs. Raiders) helped me to the finals last Sunday.

Every year that I have been competitive in my money league, it was because I had a solid fantasy defense. However, after that fat pig, Alge Crumpler, fell on Polamalu, my Steelers DEF was a bust after he had to get operated . Decided to roll the dice week after week 11 with WW pickups; Seahawks (wk 12), Bears (Wk 13), Dolphins (Wk 14), Seahawks (Wk 15). Seahawks stunk it up last week but in Week 12, they were lights out as were the Bears in Week 13.

This week, I will be acquiring the Falcons DEF (vs Bills) for the championship. My opponent will no doubt sit the Broncos (vs. Eagles) and try to acquire a WW DEF but he'll have to go with the likes of Colts, Chargers or Giants. I think the advantage will be mine in at that position. He does have Akers who has surprisingly been THE Top K according to our league rules.

Anybody who rode the Saints DEF until recently must have at least acquired a playoff spot this year.

Intresting insight about dropping Kaeding costing you two games. The question that I would have about that is did you keep anyone over Kaeding that you ended up never using?

Two players; Kolb - because of McNab's ribs who was my QB early in the season. Ended up packaging him with another player to land Rivers.

and while it seems ridiculous now but made sooooo much sense in Week 5;

Lendale White - as a handcuff to CJ.

Looking to drop Prater (in Philadelphia) to acquire Mike Nugent (vs. Rams and in the dome)