Shaun Alexander vs. Priest Holmes (1 Viewer)

[Mik789fl]

Playoff schedules:

Alexander

14: SF

15: @TEN

16: IND

17: @GB

Holmes:

14: @DAL

15: @NYG

16: SD

17: CIN

I dont see a RB with a much easier playoff sked than Shaun.

I said EITHER one of them could carry your team during the regular season(that would include weeks 1-4).I draft for the playoffs and again,we're comparing elite backs here,yes,I give Alexander a slight edge on Holmes given the schedule in weeks 14-16,the playoffs,factor in Priest not being around in 2 of the last 3 years at playoff time and Alexander gets a bigger edge. Who do I want during the regular season? Edge to Holmes,who do I want during the playoffs? Edge to Alexander,so who would I draft? Alexander.Shhhh!

A basic rule I have followed,draft for the playoffs. Both Holmes and Alexander(assuming relative good health for both) can carry you to a playoff spot. When you need them the most(weeks 14-16) they need to be at their best. That's the separation for me this year,edge to Alexander,not that Priest is a slouch,we're comparing 2 elite backs here and so say one has an edge over the other is relative to their talent.I'd take either one in a heartbeat,but if I had to choose,Alexander.

Suppose those are the week 1-4 schedules and both Alexander and Holmes are healthy. Are you guys really saying you'd rather have Alexander for those weeks than Holmes? No way. Look at Priest's performance on the field last season.If your reason for preferring Holmes is that you think he won't be healthy for the playoffs, that's a different issue than the playoff schedule.

 

[bocksheesh]

Can someone explain to me why it's widely accepted that Tomlinson is the automatic #1 pick over Shaun Alexander?I can understand the debate about Priest Holmes. But reading through everything on Alexander, I wonder if he, in fact, is the #1 pick and not Tomlinson.Does this all come down to Tomlinson catching more balls and getting more receiving yardage?

 

[Colin Dowling]

Can someone explain to me why it's widely accepted that Tomlinson is the automatic #1 pick over Shaun Alexander?

I can understand the debate about Priest Holmes. But reading through everything on Alexander, I wonder if he, in fact, is the #1 pick and not Tomlinson.

Does this all come down to Tomlinson catching more balls and getting more receiving yardage?

IN the upcoming SA spotlight, I advise that in non-ppr leagues, Alexander should be the first pick.Colin

 

[bocksheesh]

Can someone explain to me why it's widely accepted that Tomlinson is the automatic #1 pick over Shaun Alexander?

I can understand the debate about Priest Holmes. But reading through everything on Alexander, I wonder if he, in fact, is the #1 pick and not Tomlinson.

Does this all come down to Tomlinson catching more balls and getting more receiving yardage?

IN the upcoming SA spotlight, I advise that in non-ppr leagues, Alexander should be the first pick.Colin

Great. Interested to read. When's it coming out?

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

Can someone explain to me why it's widely accepted that Tomlinson is the automatic #1 pick over Shaun Alexander?

I can understand the debate about Priest Holmes. But reading through everything on Alexander, I wonder if he, in fact, is the #1 pick and not Tomlinson.

Does this all come down to Tomlinson catching more balls and getting more receiving yardage?

I'll give it a try, eventhough I do think it is closer then most people think, in a NON PPR scoring system.SA

2001 = 1661/16 = 262.1

2002 = 1655/18 = 273.5

2003 = 1730/16 = 269

2004 = 1866/20 = 306.6

LT

2001 = 1603/10 = 220.3 (Rookie Year)

2002 = 2172/15 = 307.2

2003 = 2370/17 = 339

2004 = 1776/18 = 285.6 (15gms = 19.03pt/gm = 304.5 / 16gms)

Looking at the past four years, the numbers are close, but LT has the edge in my opinion. He obviuosly was outscored badly by SA in his rookie year, but then easily out scored SA in 2002 and it wasn't even close in 2003. Last year LT battled through a groin injury, while SA had his best season ever, and SA only beat out LT: 19.16 to 19.03 on a pts/gm basis. I think a fully recovered LT is a lock for 2000 total yards and 16+ TD's. I know San Diego has more weapons now then they did in 2003, but last year while hobbled LT put up some really good numbers. Alexander is about as safe and good as you can get in a NON PPR league, outside of LT that is.

 

[NYG Endzone]

If anyone puts any weight into FBG SOS...SD has one of the worst schedules for a RB and SEA has one of the best.Sometimes if they are really close to equal this may help. I am more an LT fan myself though.

 

[Dancing Bear]

I use SOS quite a bit when analyzing free agents throughout the season.The trouble with using them in pre-season is that you really have no data from the present teams; it is all based on speculation from last year.Three glaring examples are Baltimore [both Offense and Defense], Minnesota [both Offense and Defense], and Kansas City [Defense].Until each team play a couple of games [3-4] with this year's squad I do not use it to sway me much.

 

[NYG Endzone]

I use SOS quite a bit when analyzing free agents throughout the season.

The trouble with using them in pre-season is that you really have no data from the present teams; it is all based on speculation from last year.

Three glaring examples are Baltimore [both Offense and Defense], Minnesota [both Offense and Defense], and Kansas City [Defense].

Until each team play a couple of games [3-4] with this year's squad I do not use it to sway me much.

Yes but Clayton factors in changes in defenses as well during the offseason into his numbers.

 

[lebowski]

Alexander is about as safe and good as you can get in a NON PPR league, outside of LT that is.

The question is do you what to play it safe or go for the Home Run? I like Alexander a lot...he took me to the promised land last year but he has maxed out his numbers in my opinion. I think both Priest and LT have a better chance of putting up HUGE numbers.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Clayton does a spectacular job IMHO with his analysis of SOS and the article that he has written historically. The fact is though that all of the conclusions are based on old data and speculation not on the present teams working together.Please note, that I did not say "I totally disregard SOS"; I just said that I would temper my enthusiasm for SOS or the weight that it has, until they start to play. Of course this does imply that it has a higher influence for free agents or for naming my starters each week ...

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

  Alexander is about as safe and good as you can get in a NON PPR league, outside of LT that is.

The question is do you what to play it safe or go for the Home Run? I like Alexander a lot...he took me to the promised land last year but he has maxed out his numbers in my opinion. I think both Priest and LT have a better chance of putting up HUGE numbers.

I agree 100%. (See my post on page 3, maybe 2 ???). SA is the safe pick, especially in a NON PPR scoring system, not the best pick. I have the #2 in my PPR league, and am not even considering Alexander. He would be safe in in a PPR league, but I believe his top end is too low.

 

[hankd]

I can't believe I got SA at #5 tonight!!!

 

[Wingnut]

Alexander is about as safe and good as you can get in a NON PPR league, outside of LT that is.

The question is do you what to play it safe or go for the Home Run? I like Alexander a lot...he took me to the promised land last year but he has maxed out his numbers in my opinion. I think both Priest and LT have a better chance of putting up HUGE numbers.

Id like to think Id swing gor the fences, but Im starting to think that I should play it safe at pick #3 overall (Manning is going pick #2 in my league ).I just dont want that sickly feeling around week 10 if Priest is still healthy that I passed on him. And I also dont want that sickly feeling immediately after I pick Priest that that someone will snatch LJ up prematurely...

I figure an RB thats pretty much a LOCK for 1500yds and 15tds is a pretty safe, solid pick at #3. Basically, Im getting skeered of taking the Priest/LJ route. In most of the mocks Ive done, Ive been happier with my Alexander teams than my Priest teams. Im in a start 3WR league, so I think thats the difference maker for me.

But I know Ill flip flop 47 more times before my draft in a few weeks...