Should you hedge your bets in some cases? (1 Viewer)

[solorca]

This week, I have been driving myself crazy trying to decide whether to start Eli Manning or Kyle Orton as my quarterback. Both of them have seemingly difficult, but not insane matchups. Right now, I'm leaning toward Orton, but I am also starting Jabar Gaffney as my wide receiver.

This isn't a WDIS thread, because the players are really irrelevant to the situation, I'm just providing an example. In this particular case, if Orton gets shut down by a good Titans defense, it would also affect Gaffney, which in turn could really hurt my team for the week. On the other side, if I started Manning, I could leave Gaffney in the lineup and still receive (most likely) some benefit from a good game by Orton.

So I guess my question is, how often do you look at the potential harm that starting two people on the same team can cause? I've been burned by having Hines Ward and Heath Miller both on my team a few times this year, so maybe I'm just skittish.

For a similar discussion, what about starting a defense against your Quarterback? Every interception nets me 2 points, but if I also have the quarterback, I lose the two points.

 

[dagwood]

This week, I have been driving myself crazy trying to decide whether to start Eli Manning or Kyle Orton as my quarterback. Both of them have seemingly difficult, but not insane matchups. Right now, I'm leaning toward Orton, but I am also starting Jabar Gaffney as my wide receiver. This isn't a WDIS thread, because the players are really irrelevant to the situation, I'm just providing an example. In this particular case, if Orton gets shut down by a good Titans defense, it would also affect Gaffney, which in turn could really hurt my team for the week. On the other side, if I started Manning, I could leave Gaffney in the lineup and still receive (most likely) some benefit from a good game by Orton.So I guess my question is, how often do you look at the potential harm that starting two people on the same team can cause? I've been burned by having Hines Ward and Heath Miller both on my team a few times this year, so maybe I'm just skittish.For a similar discussion, what about starting a defense against your Quarterback? Every interception nets me 2 points, but if I also have the quarterback, I lose the two points.

Start the players you think will score the most points. Period.

 

[Resident A]

I have the same 2 QBs, going with Orton. Either could be better this week, but I think Orton has a higher floor. If Orton has a bad game, he probably still throws for 230 & a score. A bad day for Eli could look like the Colts game without the 2 garbage TDs.

I'd consider hedging my bets if I had an equal option, but no way would I sit Gaffney for a Mike Thomas or Houshmandzadeh type.

Regarding the Defense question- I'm also starting the Titans D against Orton. They will score the same regardless which QB I use. Orton will throw the same # of INTs whether or not you start him.

 

[DoubleG]

This week, I have been driving myself crazy trying to decide whether to start Eli Manning or Kyle Orton as my quarterback. Both of them have seemingly difficult, but not insane matchups. Right now, I'm leaning toward Orton, but I am also starting Jabar Gaffney as my wide receiver. This isn't a WDIS thread, because the players are really irrelevant to the situation, I'm just providing an example. In this particular case, if Orton gets shut down by a good Titans defense, it would also affect Gaffney, which in turn could really hurt my team for the week. On the other side, if I started Manning, I could leave Gaffney in the lineup and still receive (most likely) some benefit from a good game by Orton.So I guess my question is, how often do you look at the potential harm that starting two people on the same team can cause? I've been burned by having Hines Ward and Heath Miller both on my team a few times this year, so maybe I'm just skittish.For a similar discussion, what about starting a defense against your Quarterback? Every interception nets me 2 points, but if I also have the quarterback, I lose the two points.

Start the players you think will score the most points. Period.

 

[LittlePhatty]

The statistical term for this is "covariance" - when two values share something in common that case both of them to rise or fall at the same time. A QB and WR on the same team is the easiest example of positive covariance. If the WR puts up a lot of FF points, the QB probably will too. If the QB has a bad game, the WR probably will too. It's not a given fact, but it increases the probability.

If you Google search for "covariance fantasy football" you'll see it mentioned in articles. I can't find the specific one, but I remember someone saying that starting a WR1 and a RB1 on the same team typically results in negative covariance (so values will go up and down in an inverse relationship). An example being Andre Johnson and Arian Foster. In Week 1 the Texans ran a lot. Foster had a big game but AJ was almost a no-show. In Week 2, AJ had a big game while Foster only got 60-something rushing and no TDs. Again, it isn't a given fact that those values will have an inverse relationship every single week, but it increases the odds of that happening long term.

Negative covariance is OK, and it even may provide you with more "steady" FF points over the long haul of a season.

Positive covariance will have more erratic results - more peaks and valleys in your team scoring, so in general it should be minimized.

As for starting a DEF against your QB, I think you just have to play whoever has the best matchup. A lot depends on the scoring in your league. Are "points against" counted as a negative for your DEF? Or is it only INTs, Forced Fumbles and Sacks? Tough call.