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Shouldn’t we credit President Trump for a strong, booming economy? (3 Viewers)

Ack88 said:
I asked you to name a metric where Obama outperformed Trump.

You said Obama brought unemployment to 5%.

I countered, as Trump's unemployment is under 4%.

How is an unemployment rate of 5% greater than that of an unemployment rate of 4%?
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That's like a drill going through rock and shale for 50 feet and drilling 100 feet into the earth and then someone operates the drill through soft soil and brags that he's down 110 feet now.  Of course unemployment is lower now. It went lower every year of Obama's presidency. As it would have if he was able to serve a third term.

 
timschochet said:
Actually the fundamental question is even simpler: “is my situation better?” 

And here I believe the Democrats have an argument to make that it really isn’t. 
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Maybe you're right. In 2016, the economic numbers supported Hillary, and Q3 2016 wage growth was really good. But it didn't translate into enough votes on an individual level.

 
timschochet said:
Now the political question becomes: should the Democratic candidates talk about the economy, knowing that, even though they have a decent argument to make it’s a nuanced one, and that the truth is most voters are not great with nuance? 

Or should they concentrate on healthcare? Or on Trump’s divisive rhetoric and actions? Forget about just and unjust, right and wrong: how best to win? 
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It's not nuanced.  Any number of economists could easily explain the entire situation.  I recommend using the economists because it avoids being able to focus on the messenger (politicians) and makes people focus on the message (economists).  Conservative and progressive economists alike generally agree on what's happened and what's in our near future.

 
Don't Noonan said:
It all comes down to basic economics.  Did you take an economics course in college?  The recipe for growth is lower taxes and less government, not more government and higher taxes.  This is what is taught in basic economics and why Republican policies work.
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If this were a fact there would be no economist that are Democrats.  

 
At this point, just merge this with the Tax thread.  Literally every single argument made in here was made there and thoroughly addressed.  The answers to the arguments aren't any different today than when they were made before.

 
It is very disappointing not to hear much concern over the debt from Trump supporters and Republicans in power.  There was some lip service about how we'd grow our way out of it but, not surprisingly, we don't see those signs.  Economic times now certainly should call for shrinking the deficit. 

Obama got a lot of blame for deficits but his defense that the economy was weak at the time made sense and deficits shrank as the economy improved. 

A next recession is inevitable, of course, no matter which party is in power.  I'm concerned about deficits ballooning so much in bad times that it becomes a disaster.

 
JuniorNB said:
Exactly. I bet people would be more willing to give Trump credit if they weren't so adamant about ignoring the fact that Obama was great for the economy too.  Unemployment was over 10% when he took office. He left with it under 5%. That's outstanding. Amazing, even.  He lowered the rate by over 5% and they give no credit. Trump lowers it one more percent and they act like he's the God of Economy. lol    The stock market also increased by 150% under Obama.  Trump is at around 30%.  All you ever hear is that it's at its highest ever. Well big deal. Of course it is. That's what trends do. They continue in the path they were on.
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Obama did great with the economy.  Your turn.

JuniorNB said:
That's like a drill going through rock and shale for 50 feet and drilling 100 feet into the earth and then someone operates the drill through soft soil and brags that he's down 110 feet now.  Of course unemployment is lower now. It went lower every year of Obama's presidency. As it would have if he was able to serve a third term.
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That's a different tune than we hear every time the market takes a down turn and significantly different that we heard on election night when everyone was talking their money out of their 401k before Trump blew everything  up.  I mean Trump is such a moron isn't it amazing he can keep what Obama started going? 

 
eoMMan said:
The U.S. government's public debt is now more than $22 trillion — the highest it has ever been. The Treasury Department data comes as tax revenue has fallen and federal spending continues to rise. The new debt level reflects a rise of more than $2 trillion from the day President Trump took office in 2017.
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Um, you don't want to do that....these guys are comparing Trump to Obama right now.

 
JuniorNB said:
That's like a drill going through rock and shale for 50 feet and drilling 100 feet into the earth and then someone operates the drill through soft soil and brags that he's down 110 feet now.  Of course unemployment is lower now. It went lower every year of Obama's presidency. As it would have if he was able to serve a third term.
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No, it's not.

Obama absolutely deserves some credit for lower employment, but that, coupled with robust economic growth and stock market performance is simply better now than it was under Obama. 

You can't say unemployment was lower under Obama than Trump because it is simply untrue.

 
timschochet said:
Now the political question becomes: should the Democratic candidates talk about the economy, knowing that, even though they have a decent argument to make it’s a nuanced one, and that the truth is most voters are not great with nuance? 

Or should they concentrate on healthcare? Or on Trump’s divisive rhetoric and actions? Forget about just and unjust, right and wrong: how best to win? 
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This is an automatic Trump win. They shouldn't ever do this as any significant focus of whatever the campaign will be. If you want to get into a p###ing contest with Trump, he'll win every time. He's from TV/entertainment, he knows what zingers will get people hyping him up.

Dems need to focus on themselves and not engage in the childish back and forth. Talk policy. Real, SPECIFIC policy. More than the platitudes we've seen from the left in recent years, and I think getting Trump out will be easier than everyone thinks.

 
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When you read the thread, there are errors of omission. Many posters have chosen to ignore basic reality; under most metrics, the economy is better under Trump than Obama. Now, the reasons for this are subject to debate, but the hard data via unemployment, the stock market, and GDP growth are all better under Trump.

I can give credit where credit is due- the recovery began under Obama but it has accelarated under Trump.

 
Johnnymac said:
Question, who compiles these economic numbers?  I'm asking because I honestly dont know.
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Various government agencies. For example, GDP comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, but they compile statistics from other agencies (like the Census Bureau) to produce that number. Similarly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the unemployment rate based on the Current Population Survey conducted by the Census Bureau.

 
timschochet said:
Now the political question becomes: should the Democratic candidates talk about the economy, knowing that, even though they have a decent argument to make it’s a nuanced one, and that the truth is most voters are not great with nuance? 

Or should they concentrate on healthcare? Or on Trump’s divisive rhetoric and actions? Forget about just and unjust, right and wrong: how best to win? 
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Russia! 24x7 Russia!

 
Ack88 said:
When you read the thread, there are errors of omission. Many posters have chosen to ignore basic reality; under most metrics, the economy is better under Trump than Obama. Now, the reasons for this are subject to debate, but the hard data via unemployment, the stock market, and GDP growth are all better under Trump.

I can give credit where credit is due- the recovery began under Obama but it has accelarated under Trump.
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Omission like nobody claiming otherwise? Or how about comparing where each started...the thing some like to omit every single time.  It’s not about the point in time comparison...

 
sho nuff said:
Omission like nobody claiming otherwise? Or how about comparing where each started...the thing some like to omit every single time.  It’s not about the point in time comparison...
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You are right, the point in time comparison does matter. But, the current state of affairs does as well.

 
All I know is when there is record unemployment and the stock market is reaching all time highs what you do is lower interest rates and taxes. 

Wait, what. 

 
The Commish said:
At this point, just merge this with the Tax thread.  Literally every single argument made in here was made there and thoroughly addressed.  The answers to the arguments aren't any different today than when they were made before.
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:thanks:

 
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dgreen said:
Various government agencies. For example, GDP comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, but they compile statistics from other agencies (like the Census Bureau) to produce that number. Similarly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the unemployment rate based on the Current Population Survey conducted by the Census Bureau.
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Ok does trump have a way to cook these numbers?  I have to ask because I would not put it past this administration.

 
Johnnymac said:
Ok does trump have a way to cook these numbers?  I have to ask because I would not put it past this administration.
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There's always a way, but that would shock me. So many people are involved that it would be really hard to do so without someone speaking up, IMO. A few years ago, there was an article about a Census interviewer who was making up numbers on his interviews for the Current Population Survey (used for unemployment) and people wondered whether that was causing the statistics to look better than they should. But, the fact was that one person, especially an interviewer, couldn't have that kind of impact on total numbers.

 
Johnnymac said:
Ok does trump have a way to cook these numbers?  I have to ask because I would not put it past this administration.
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GDP is one that is easy to misrepresent.  There are multiple methods used for calculating GDP and they depend on methodology, when you start and stop etc.  This showed up in his claim of 3%+ GDP for 2018 I think it was.  Using the method they used to tout the number (not the typical method outlined in the threads here) it showed Obummer with two years of 3%+, so they quickly went away from that back to the standard.

 
tonydead said:
Obama did great with the economy.  Your turn.

That's a different tune than we hear every time the market takes a down turn and significantly different that we heard on election night when everyone was talking their money out of their 401k before Trump blew everything  up.  I mean Trump is such a moron isn't it amazing he can keep what Obama started going? 
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:goodposting:

 
The Commish said:
At this point, just merge this with the Tax thread.  Literally every single argument made in here was made there and thoroughly addressed.  The answers to the arguments aren't any different today than when they were made before.
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While we’re at it lets combine all the Trump threads that repeat the same stuff over and over about him.

 
tonydead said:
Obama did great with the economy.  Your turn.

That's a different tune than we hear every time the market takes a down turn and significantly different that we heard on election night when everyone was talking their money out of their 401k before Trump blew everything  up.  I mean Trump is such a moron isn't it amazing he can keep what Obama started going? 
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He kept it going by chit-canning almost every regulation that Obama imposed?

Who would have known things would have worked out the way they did simply by changing everything?   :confused:

 
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Juxtatarot said:
It is very disappointing not to hear much concern over the debt from Trump supporters and Republicans in power.  There was some lip service about how we'd grow our way out of it but, not surprisingly, we don't see those signs.  Economic times now certainly should call for shrinking the deficit. 

Obama got a lot of blame for deficits but his defense that the economy was weak at the time made sense and deficits shrank as the economy improved. 

A next recession is inevitable, of course, no matter which party is in power.  I'm concerned about deficits ballooning so much in bad times that it becomes a disaster.
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The GOP doesn't care about fiscal responsibility. They care about lowering taxes.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
just like the Regan years......its all built on a house of cards.....big crash coming....
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One need only look to the budget Trump put out a few weeks ago to know that is true.  

The tax cuts were put on the national credit card.  Gutting of entitlements is set to begin in 2021.  Of course, that will never happen and there will be a big problem, but not Trump’s at that point.  

 
whoknew said:
The GOP doesn't care about fiscal responsibility. They care about lowering taxes.
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I don’t understand it completely.  I’ve talked to several conservatives that still believe in trickle-down economics and that the tax cuts will eventually pay for themselves.  Many GOP politicians seem to believe it too. I assume some know better and are just pretending.  I have no idea how many.

 
Ruffrodys05 said:
NO.

I give DJT no credit whatsoever. NONE
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Care to explain your reasoning?

There are numerous macro data sources that would say at least some credit is in order. To wit, GDP, unemployment, tax rates for most Americans, and the stock market.

 
Juxtatarot said:
I don’t understand it completely.  I’ve talked to several conservatives that still believe in trickle-down economics and that the tax cuts will eventually pay for themselves.  Many GOP politicians seem to believe it too. I assume some know better and are just pretending.  I have no idea how many.
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Trickle-down economics was proven to work by Reagan.

 
Juxtatarot said:
I don’t understand it completely.  I’ve talked to several conservatives that still believe in trickle-down economics and that the tax cuts will eventually pay for themselves.  Many GOP politicians seem to believe it too. I assume some know better and are just pretending.  I have no idea how many.
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I don’t think they actually believe it as a macro theory of economics.   They support it because it makes them richer.  

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
just like the Regan years......its all built on a house of cards.....big crash coming....
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Just keep saying this and eventually you will be right.  :lmao:

Good point though all the QE and money printed after the recession has created a house of cards to unwind. 

 
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timschochet said:
. In my estimation, we’re spending way too much on the military, which means at least some of the job growth is sustainable only to the extent that we continue to pump money into the military- a never ending very dangerous cycle.  
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Bump. I’ve noticed that nobody on either side has commented on this point from my OP. It’s one of my biggest concerns, and it stretches far back before out current President. 

At this point we can’t make cuts to the military without seriously hurting sectors of the economy. And the only alternative to building more weaponry for ourselves is to sell it to the depostic princes of Saudi Arabia and other questionable players around the world- which doesn’t make us any safer. 

Forget partisanship for a moment- how the hell do we extricate ourselves from this trap? 

 
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