Chase Stuart
Footballguy
The simple rating system only knows three things: the score of the winning team, the score of the losing team, and the location of the game. The home team is given 3 points in every game. A home win of 1, 2 or 3 points is credited as a tie. A win of (after adjusting for home field) fewer than 7 points is credited as a 7-point win. A win of (after adjusting for home field) more than 24 points is credited as the average of the difference (after accounting for home field) and 24 points.
The nice thing about the simple rating system is it completely takes strength of schedule into account, by taking into the SOS of all of each team's opponents, and taking the SOS of all of their opponents, and the SOS of all of their opponents, etc. By using a computer to do hundreds of iterations, you can often discover things the naked eye misses.
Of course, we only have three inputs -- points for, points allowed, and site location. Hence the simple part of the simple rating system. But that doesn't mean it's meaningless. MOV is the adjusted margin of victory; SOS is strength of schedule. SRS is simply the sum of those two numbers.
The nice thing about the simple rating system is it completely takes strength of schedule into account, by taking into the SOS of all of each team's opponents, and taking the SOS of all of their opponents, and the SOS of all of their opponents, etc. By using a computer to do hundreds of iterations, you can often discover things the naked eye misses.
Of course, we only have three inputs -- points for, points allowed, and site location. Hence the simple part of the simple rating system. But that doesn't mean it's meaningless. MOV is the adjusted margin of victory; SOS is strength of schedule. SRS is simply the sum of those two numbers.
Code:
Team G MOV SOS SRS RecGreen Bay Packers 5 13.4 0.8 14.2 5-0New England Patriots 5 10.0 3.0 13.0 4-1Baltimore Ravens 4 14.3 -2.1 12.1 3-1Detroit Lions 5 13.0 -2.2 10.8 5-0New Orleans Saints 5 7.4 2.1 9.5 4-1Buffalo Bills 5 7.5 1.8 9.3 4-1San Francisco 49ers 5 10.8 -1.8 9.0 4-1Oakland Raiders 5 1.4 6.1 7.5 3-2Dallas Cowboys 4 0.0 6.0 6.0 2-2New York Jets 5 -0.6 5.9 5.3 2-3Houston Texans 5 5.8 -0.6 5.2 3-2Chicago Bears 5 -2.6 5.7 3.1 2-3Cincinnati Bengals 5 3.6 -0.7 2.9 3-2Pittsburgh Steelers 5 2.9 -0.6 2.3 3-2Tennessee Titans 5 2.6 -1.5 1.1 3-2San Diego Chargers 5 2.2 -2.1 0.1 4-1Washington Redskins 4 5.3 -6.5 -1.3 3-1Denver Broncos 5 -7.6 5.2 -2.4 1-4Carolina Panthers 5 -4.8 1.9 -2.9 1-4Atlanta Falcons 5 -3.0 -0.1 -3.1 2-3Minnesota Vikings 5 -1.4 -2.7 -4.1 1-4Philadelphia Eagles 5 -3.2 -1.7 -4.9 1-4Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 -5.8 -0.5 -6.3 3-2New York Giants 5 1.4 -7.7 -6.3 3-2Seattle Seahawks 5 -5.4 -1.3 -6.7 2-3Miami Dolphins 4 -9.3 2.0 -7.3 0-4Arizona Cardinals 5 -4.2 -4.3 -8.5 1-4Jacksonville Jaguars 5 -12.2 3.2 -9.0 1-4Kansas City Chiefs 5 -9.9 0.2 -9.7 2-3Cleveland Browns 4 -5.8 -4.5 -10.3 2-2Indianapolis Colts 5 -11.2 -3.8 -15.0 0-5St. Louis Rams 4 -17.1 -0.1 -17.2 0-4
(Note that I like to use the adjusted MOV, but the official PFR formula does not, which is why the MOV columns don't match up perfectly, either.)
