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Sleepers and undervalued plays... (1 Viewer)

JAX - byron leftwich (undervalue play) & marcedes lewis (corey chavous said he has better ball skills than vernon davis & i believe him... not as explosive as matt jones, but could already be best receiving weapon on the team... finally having a go to guy between the hashes will help lefty overcome his achilles heel of holding the ball too long... should be heavily involved early & often with uncertainty in wake of unexpected jimmy smith retirement)
Slight hijack...and I agree that Lewis is a sleeper, but.....I'd like to know what qualifies Corey Chavous to make this statement. What does Corey Chavous know that 31 other personnel departments didn't know?

The knock on Davis was his blocking ability, not ball skills - which are reportedly excellent.

 
Michael Turner in dynasty.

Billy Volek in redraft.
I hear a lot of love for Turner but will it be realized? Will the Chargers let him go after this year, the final year of his deal, as an RFA? The 5.9 ypc is very attractive but can he be as much of a monster as a starter as he is a backup?
All are good questions. We'll never know the real answer until he becomes an actual starter, but I do believe he's one of the best backup RB's in the NFL. He signed a 3-year contract in 2004, so he'll be a free agent after this season. You have to think that if he can showcase his skills some more teams will be drooling to sign him.

It's always pointless to predict injuries, but you have to think that LT's run of playing 16 games every season has to end eventually right?

 
Your philosphy here is exactly what Andy Reid thought of his Rookie Rb last year. He did exactly what your saying last year.Moats was never a big name coming out of college becasue he played on a La Tech team who was aweful and was an undersized one man army despite every opponent stacking the box. When they played a stacked Miami defense 2 years ago Moats had 81 yards rushing at halftime on 11 carries despite 8 in the box.If you have'nt seen him play for an extended period time in a game (he hasnt since had the chance since on the eagles) I dont expect most folks to understand. He has the "Quick Twich" that doesnt come along everyday and weighs more than Westbrook .
I watched every Eagles game last year, so I have seen him play. Even with Brian Westbrook in the backfield the Eagles abandoned the run way to often. The Eagles philosophy even if it changes to run the ball more probably only means that they may run the ball about 380-390 times in a season (about 23 per game) rather than 360. McNabb will take about 3 or 4 of those attempts. So you have 20 rushing attempts to split between Moats, Mahe and Perry. If you're a Moats owner and Westbrook goes down you have to be giddy if he even gets 13 attempts in a game. Thanks, but I'll pass. I'd rather waste a sleeper pick on a guy who if the starter goes down will at least get me 20 rush attempts. A guy like Gado comes to mind.
 
Mahe and Perry? You think the Eagles took Moats in the 3rd round so he could split carries with those special teams only bums? If Westbrook goes down, Moats is going to the guy, it won't be a RB-by-committee. And Westbrook has proven time and time again he can't carry the load by himself. Moats could see 8-10 touches (not just carries) in a backup role alone. If he starts in place of Westbrook, I don't see his production being much different than Westbrook's.

 
Mahe and Perry? You think the Eagles took Moats in the 3rd round so he could split carries with those special teams only bums? If Westbrook goes down, Moats is going to the guy, it won't be a RB-by-committee. And Westbrook has proven time and time again he can't carry the load by himself. Moats could see 8-10 touches (not just carries) in a backup role alone. If he starts in place of Westbrook, I don't see his production being much different than Westbrook's.
Where the Eagles take a player is irrelevant. The Eagles took Jerome McDougle in the first round. They didn't take him there to be the backup DE. But if you think Moats' production will be the same as Westbrook you're smoking crack. The real value in Westbrook is his recieving skills, and Moats can hold Westbrooks jockstrap in that department. And that's where Mahe would steal production from Moats, in passing situations.And what is Westbrook getting 14 carries per game? You couldn't possible expect Westbrook to go down and Andy Reid to suddenly say. Oh boy! I guess we better run the ball more now.I won't argue about Moats' talent. I won't even argue that he's probably the second best RB the Eagles have. But in this system, he won't get enough opportunities to be the type of sleeper that will help you win the league if the starter goes down. As long as he's with the Eagles he will only have limited value.
 
Just because some first day picks don't pan out doesn't make draft position irrelevant. Moats was drafted to make as possibly Westbrook's successor. Now, that won't happen with Westbrook getting a new deal, but he can still do all the things Westbrook can and is the perfect guy to replace him in the lineup. Mahe definitely won't be taking snaps away from Moats in passing situations either.

If Westbrook has value as an fantasy starter, Moats has value as a fantasy sleeper.

 
JAX - byron leftwich (undervalue play) & marcedes lewis (corey chavous said he has better ball skills than vernon davis & i believe him... not as explosive as matt jones, but could already be best receiving weapon on the team... finally having a go to guy between the hashes will help lefty overcome his achilles heel of holding the ball too long... should be heavily involved early & often with uncertainty in wake of unexpected jimmy smith retirement)
Slight hijack...and I agree that Lewis is a sleeper, but.....I'd like to know what qualifies Corey Chavous to make this statement. What does Corey Chavous know that 31 other personnel departments didn't know?

The knock on Davis was his blocking ability, not ball skills - which are reportedly excellent.
dude (aman),if you had seen the NFL draft coverage on NFL.com you wouldn't be asking question...

seriously, good question... chavous has been acknowledged as the most knowledgeable and authoritative draft expert among active players for several years running now... he had a briefcase of DVDs of class of 2006 that was sick, & if you missed the inaugural draft coverage on NFL.com, he held his own with in-house scout mike mayock, who is also imo authoritative & one of top independent scouts... no question when chavous' playing days are over he could become a coach or scout... though i hope he continues to do what he is doing, he is very good at it... in some ways i value his insights more than a guy like kiper, who has never played the game, because he knows it from the inside & can break down film like a player... because he is one...

as to davis, i don't think it was a case where he was implying davis has lousy hands... just that in his opinion lewis was even better (he did put up better reception & TD stats in 2005, i think)... davis is faster, better athlete & better blocker... lewis may have better hands & overall ball skills... if davis is better in that department, lets just leave it at lewis hands are very good & among best in class, to even warrant a comparison to davis by chavous...

 
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QB- Drew Bledsoe- Was top qb before losing his LT. Add TO and Fasano and some quality lineman.....

Kitna- He is a gutsy guy and fits the mold of a Martz qb. Could see monster numbers.

Eli Manning- I think he grows further this year. Plus the Giants may be playing from behind a little more this yr.

RB-

Laurence Maroney- Dillons numbers and age show obvious signs.

Joseph Addai- Edge like numbers for half the price.

Kevan Barlow- Big back who will fight with Gore coming off two shoulder surgeries.

WR-

Donte Stallworth- Look at the numbers Ike Hilliard put up as Dontes spot in Paytons offense in NY. Same with Glenn.

Nate Burleson- Made for the WCO and should put up Koren Robinson numbers opposite D Jax......

Koren Robinson- Is a good WCO WR and I see him taking the lead WR reigns and running with it.

TE-

Jeb Putzier- Look what he did in Denver

Vernon Davis- Hard to think a guy like this would be undervalued playing for Turner

Todd Heap- Remember Frank Wycheck?

 
QB- Drew Bledsoe- Was top qb before losing his LT. Add TO and Fasano and some quality lineman.....

Kitna- He is a gutsy guy and fits the mold of a Martz qb. Could see monster numbers.

Eli Manning- I think he grows further this year. Plus the Giants may be playing from behind a little more this yr.

RB-

Laurence Maroney- Dillons numbers and age show obvious signs.

Joseph Addai- Edge like numbers for half the price.

Kevan Barlow- Big back who will fight with Gore coming off two shoulder surgeries.

WR-

Donte Stallworth- Look at the numbers Ike Hilliard put up as Dontes spot in Paytons offense in NY. Same with Glenn.

Nate Burleson- Made for the WCO and should put up Koren Robinson numbers opposite D Jax......

Koren Robinson- Is a good WCO WR and I see him taking the lead WR reigns and running with it.

TE-

Jeb Putzier- Look what he did in Denver

Vernon Davis- Hard to think a guy like this would be undervalued playing for Turner

Todd Heap- Remember Frank Wycheck?
3 rookies "sleepers"? :thumbdown:
 
OK - I'll jump on the limb

Undervalued

Rex Grossman: QB33, just behind non-starter Jay Cutler. This low ranking is probably due to the injuries that knocked him out the last two years. He's a great passer on a team with a great defense that granted does prefer the run. But if he stays healthy, he could be a top 15 with a few great matchups during the season.

Jon Kitna: QB27, mentioned many times previously - great surrounding cast in a new offense will scare some. However, he's a seasoned veteran QB with good accuracy in the Martz offense - this certainly adds up to top 15 to me with a decent chance of top 10 and pretty consistent numbers.

Warrick Dunn: RB22, best running team in the NFL, much improved defense and maturing passing game (err, that was the polite way to say it couldn't get worse). Dunn is an excellent #2 RB with a decent chance at top 10.

Tatum Bell: RB25, 2nd best running team in the NFL although competing with Dayne (and Shanahan) for the starting position. Everybody poo-poos his running ability after 10 carries but that team delivers great RB statistics year in a year out. Mike Anderson started because he was a much better blocker and pretty effective RB but TBell will put up CPortis-like numbers this year.

Reggie Brown: WR32, #1 WR on the Eagles - a healthy McNabb and Westbrook is usually a good sign for their #1 WR - decent shot at top 10 WR.

Overvalued

Michael Vick: QB10, I don't think he's seen the top 20 in my league yet and this year won't be different

Edgerrin James: QB5 - No way, no how, not this year. This just in: The Cards are not the Colts

Reggie Bush QB20 and Deuce McAllister QB26: Something's gotta give. I'm not in the "Reggie Bush is God" camp and I don't think he's going to play to his reported weight of 200 - looks smaller to me. The Saints are still in disarray with a new head coach and QB. I don't like anybody on this team.

Randy Moss: WR6 - was the 18th in scoring in my league last year. The only way he is a WR6 is if he gets traded to Miami and hooks up with Duante Culpepper again.

 
OK - I'll jump on the limb

Undervalued

Jon Kitna: QB27, mentioned many times previously - great surrounding cast in a new offense will scare some. However, he's a seasoned veteran QB with good accuracy in the Martz offense - this certainly adds up to top 15 to me with a decent chance of top 10 and pretty consistent numbers.
I like your pick.Kitna could be the second coming of Warner 1999-2001....tons of young talent around him and the nut of all nuts in Martz calling the plays....

 
Warrick Dunn: RB22, best running team in the NFL, much improved defense and maturing passing game (err, that was the polite way to say it couldn't get worse). Dunn is an excellent #2 RB with a decent chance at top 10.
I gotta ask about this one. #1 rushing team overall . . . because of Vick.Dunn had a career year last year and only managed to rank 12th. I'm always pimping Dunn as a value play (been saying it for years). Top 10? I'm not seeing it happening. Great RB2, but those hoping for a Top 10 finish from Dunn will likely be disappointed.
 
I gotta ask about this one. #1 rushing team overall . . . because of Vick.

Dunn had a career year last year and only managed to rank 12th. I'm always pimping Dunn as a value play (been saying it for years). Top 10? I'm not seeing it happening. Great RB2, but those hoping for a Top 10 finish from Dunn will likely be disappointed.
I'm with you - he had a great year but the overall team was pretty disappointing. In my league, he was #11 in scoring with 280 rushes and TJDucket getting 121. Dunn only got 3 TDs on the ground and 1 in the air and I think that he could improve on that this year with the same number of rushes.There was virtually no difference in points from our #9 (Willie Parker), #10 (McGahee) and #11 (Dunn).

To me, I see the potential for a more "Tiki in 2005" moment than a "Marshall Faulk in 2005". He's more like an Emmitt Smith who's small but knows how not to get the crap knocked out of him with the breakaway run potential.

We'll see.

 
I like your pick.

Kitna could be the second coming of Warner 1999-2001....tons of young talent around him and the nut of all nuts in Martz calling the plays....
FYI, I've got Carson Palmer in a dynasty league and the reason I like him so much is the steadiness of the statistics - very little deviation. This make predicting easier and planning on long shots less necessary. No longer do I carry a Brett Favre or Mike Vick who could paste 40 points one week, 10 the next, 5 the next. I like 20, 22, 18, 24, 19, etc.I see Kitna the same way with his accuracy and maturity this year and a decent surrounding cast.

 
Warrick Dunn: RB22, best running team in the NFL, much improved defense and maturing passing game (err, that was the polite way to say it couldn't get worse). Dunn is an excellent #2 RB with a decent chance at top 10.
I gotta ask about this one. #1 rushing team overall . . . because of Vick.Dunn had a career year last year and only managed to rank 12th. I'm always pimping Dunn as a value play (been saying it for years). Top 10? I'm not seeing it happening. Great RB2, but those hoping for a Top 10 finish from Dunn will likely be disappointed.
Like the Dunn comments as he will be my Keeper this year, as my #2 RB. Hopefully behind either Tiki, Portis or S. Jackson. Gotta agree more with Yudkin though, as I'm only expecting Dunn to be in the RB#12-RB#15 area...where he always ends up.Like Kitna this year as well. sky's the limit for that team after so mAny down years...hey, look what the Tigers are doing this year..he he

 
Taking a quick look at the revised ADP info just posted today . . .

QB

Drew Bledsoe, QB11, 81 overall

The 'Boys add T.O. and people are projecting his numbers to DECREASE from last year.

Aaron Brooks, QB17, 107 overall

If he wins the starting job (which he should), he should do better than Collins did and Collins was a Top 10-12 QB last year.

Philip Rivers, QB22, 132 overall

As I outlined in his Player Spotlight thread, guys that have sat and then started at QB have done a lot better than most people think.

Jon Kitna, QB25, 174 overall

Martz' offenses have featured complete no names that became instant Top 10 QB--Green, Warner, Bulger.

RB

Chester Taylor, RB21, 33 overall

I know the press has not been great on him lately, but if he shapes up (literally and figuratively), he will be running behind Pro Bowlers Hutchinson, Birk, and Richardson and also is a great receiving threat. Top 10 potential.

Ron Dayne, RB36, 74 overall

I have talked this one up to death. The Broncos have tried as hard as they could to NOT give Bell the ball. I still think Dayne keeps the job and puts up Anderson or Droughns like numbers from the last two years.

Samkon Gado, RB41, 109 overall

I think those that think Ahman Green is coming back and will do much are not fully aware about how difficult it is to return to form from his injury. The GB backfield information is a mess, but I think Gado is the healthiest and most likely to get the most touches.

Frank Gore, RB37, 77 overall

Another situation that is cloudy as to who will get the ball. barlow has not shown much in recent seasons and Gore played well when given the chance. If he wins the job he will do way better than RB37 provided his knees hold up.

WR

Roy Williams, WR14, 39 overall

Look at how well Martz WR have done in the past. Look who else is on the roster or will be playing at WR for Detroit. I would not be shocked to see Williams Top 5 this year.

Eddie Kennison, WR34, 96 overall

He's ranked 24, 18, 18 the last 3 years and the team still has not done much to address the WR corps.

Matt Jones WR36, 105 overall

Reggie Williams, WR60, 196 overall

The Jags plan to open up the offense and Jimmy Smith's numbers have to go somewhere.

Isaac Bruce, WR45, 135 overall

As I see it, Curtis FILLED IN FOR Bruce last year and the numbers back that up. Bruce had 50 targets and 22 reception from Week 12 on while Curtis had 21 targets and 11 recptions. Bruce still is the #2 on this team and the guy that ranked in the Top 20 6 years in a row.

Mark Bradley, Not in the Top 68WR, Not in the Top 230

From one I've seen, Bradley is a breakout WR in the making. Last pick material with major upside.

TE

Kellen Winslow, TE12, 112 overall

Could easily be Top 5 if healthy, especially with Edwards hurt or out at WR. Either Winslow is healthy or he's not . . .

Ben Watson, TE15, 138 overall

I'm not as high on Watson as many others are, but I would certainly consider him as the #15 off the board with an upside of Top 5 (although I don't think he'll do quite that well).

Jermaine Wiggins, TE17, 180 overall

The guy has averaged 70 receptions the past two years. WR corps should not scare defenses. Verdict is still out on K-Rob.

Zack Hilton, TE21, 194 overall

I was really high on Hilton earlier in the off-season and have since tempered my entusiasm some. Worth a shot as the #21 TE off the board, but I think some people are trying to talk him up to Gates-like levels and I doubt that will happen.

 
QBDrew Bledsoe, QB11, 81 overallThe 'Boys add T.O. and people are projecting his numbers to DECREASE from last year.
not that i think it's going to happen, but Bledsoe's fantasy numbers (and the Bills offense) cratered from 2002 to 2003 without losing a lot. Taking 2005 Bledsoe + T.O. isn't a lock IMHO.
 
QB

Drew Bledsoe, QB11, 81 overall

The 'Boys add T.O. and people are projecting his numbers to DECREASE from last year.
not that i think it's going to happen, but Bledsoe's fantasy numbers (and the Bills offense) cratered from 2002 to 2003 without losing a lot. Taking 2005 Bledsoe + T.O. isn't a lock IMHO.
You're giving Drew too much credit. Drew was phenomenal in the first half of the season in 2002 and medicocre the latter part of the year.I happen to think that the Cowboys still will have some trouble running the ball, will play a lot of tight games playing in the NFC East, and will not be shutdown-like on defense. Add it all up, and I see the Cowboys passing a fair amount. With Owens, Glenn, and Witten he should do better than last year . . . but maybe I am in the minority.

 
Undervalued

Charlie Frye, QB27 - Frye looked average down the stretch as D's stacked against the run and forced him to make plays. He really didn't have a bad campaign though when you realize that he was a rookie. Edwards may not be 100% by the time the season starts but the Brownies are giving him a lot of weapons to work with. Key additions: Winslow II, JJ, Travis Wilson and Jerome Harrison (3RB). I'd say with a healthy Braylon, KWII and the WR additions this offense could be a force potentially this year but Frye is a guy getting overlooked in dynasty that you would be wise to stash.

Kurt Warner, QB20 - Of course it is a big question as to whether Warner will stay healthy but it is hard to argue with the team he has around him. Fitz and Boldin are both top 5 WR's, Edge is a top 5 RB and Pope is a legit threat at TE. Warner has proved that with this kind of talent around him he can also produce on just as high of a level. He has top 5 potential despite his age.

Jamal Lewis, RB24 - Does everyone know how old JamLew is? Just a refresher but he is 27. Same age as LJ, LT and younger than SA. For some reason though people think the gas has ran out on him. Now I'm not going to argue that he is one of the best RB in the league cause I really don't think he is and he won't ever come close to that 2000 yds again but I also think it is unreasonable that he is not a top 15 back. Last year he was not himself as he was coming off a bad ankle injury. It was the same type that Curt Schilling had and we all saw what kind of season Curt Schilling had last year compared to now. I expect Lewis to be back to his normal performance of 1300, 7 which would put him in the top 12-15 range.

Matt Jones, WR29 - In a word this kid is a freak. How some people found last season disappointing for him I won't understand. In his first season as a WR he was one of the rookie leaders at the position. Now with Jimmy Smith gone and a year under his belt he becomes the teams go to guy. He has speed to stretch the field and strength/agility to move the ball after the catch. He looks to me like the white version of TO and at very least should be the go to guy for TD's on that team.

KWII, TE10 - A young QB's best friend is his TE and while it isn't as easy as it once was for a talented young TE to break into the top 5 KWII was supposed to be the prodigcal son before his injury. If he is fully healthy he is the #1 threat on the Browns right now due to Braylon's injury. Look for Frye to make him his safety blanket and for KWII to live up to the billing we all gave him 3 years ago.

 
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Sleepers (impact this year)

Jason Campbell, QB40 - I remember a quote from Gibbs late last year stating that it's time to see what they are paying Cambell all that money for. Brunell breathed new life last year and that is all well and good for him but he was merely a caretaker for the offense and I think Gibbs is aware of that. QB's that have sat for a complete season have a good deal of success (Palmer, Culpepper) because they had learned the nuances of the game and also had a team around them ready to step up. I think Campbell's situation is very much similar to the other QB's. He will have a considerable amount of talent at WR (Moss, Lloyd, ARE), a stud RB, and a safety blanket TE (Cooley)... not too mention a great coaching staff who handpicked him to lead this offense. I think Campbell could be a force quickly if he gets an opportunity this year.

Chris Perry, RB42 - During the Tressel administration at OSU defense has been a stalwart. Now there have been some bad game in recent years but I remember about a two year span where only two RB's were dominant against what I think was one of the best college D's I've ever seen one was Larry Johnson and the other was Chris Perry. Now Chris Perry lovers have been ripped to shreads on this board and I am very much aware of that. Injuries have slowed him for a great deal of time and that is a problem that needs to be fixed but when healthy he brings something to the table that Rudi does not. Rudi is a solid, strong back and you know what you are going to get out of him. I can't blame the Bengals if they continue to stick with him but this is my gut call for this year. I think Perry is ready to step up in a big way and provide that offense with a flashy runner that would fit it so well.

Koren Robinson, WR42 - Everybody remember when Koren was getting more love than Torry Holt, well I think this is the year he gives us reason to love him again. He has his head on straight and the bottle in the trash. He is the most talented, polished WR in the group and has also played in this version of the offense before. Call me crazy but I think we will once again call KRob a top 10 WR at the end of this season. I remember a telented young WR who had problems early in his career and then got his head on straight and went to the Vikings. Anyone remember Cris Carter?

Dominique Byrd, TE40 - Now I know Klopfenstein was drafted ahead of him but I really believe that Byrd was the superior recieving TE coming out. Maybe that will be my downfall on this pick because he may not be able to handle the blocking assignments for the TE in the NFL but we all know Linehan's penchant for TE use. I think Byrd has more ability to stretch D's from the TE position and also does more after the catch. I hope he proves me right as I think he was underutilized at USC.

Super Sleepers

Bears QB - B/C I can't decide on who will win this one I left them out of my previous two posts. If you have Grossman/Griese combo I think you have a solid #2 QB on your hands.

Cedric Houston RB53 - Solid, pounding RB who can take pressure off the QB with his running style and also reduce CuMart's role due to his age.

Duce Staley RB47 - I still argue FWP does not fit the Steelers offense. Ya he can bust out the big run but I think he would have a better role spiliting with Staley which would give the Steelers a more consistent offense.

Micheal Turner RB60 - Must have handcuff to LT, has the talent to produce at a high level if anything happens and is also a must have in dynasty's.

Marty Booker WR51 - He is one of those consistent guys who you know what he brings to the table. He is still a solid, possesion WR who will be aided by more consistent QB play this season.

Doug Gabrial WR77 - Has always flashed his talent but still needs an opportunity,

Mark Bradley WR78 - Coming of an ACL injury is always difficult but he is one of the better talented, young WR's in the league.

Bernard Berrian WR82 - One of the better deep threats in the league who is becoming more comfortable going over the middle. This guy could be scary if he ever brings it all together. Expect better numbers than his rating seeing as Bradley is coming off of injury and the QB play will be better.

 
Undervalued

Rex Grossman: QB33, just behind non-starter Jay Cutler. This low ranking is probably due to the injuries that knocked him out the last two years. He's a great passer on a team with a great defense that granted does prefer the run. But if he stays healthy, he could be a top 15 with a few great matchups during the season.
I think his injury risk is only one of the four reasons he's ranked that low. The other three imo are....- weak team schedule and the Bears should be able to win the division following last seasons recipe for success; D and running.

- team didn't improve the receiving corp as was expected and the only name guy in the bunch(Mushin) is one year older @ 33.

- some(myself included) think Griese is a better QB and there's a very good chance Griese will be starting by seasons end.

 
One guy that is hardly drafted that could surprise is ..... Gus Frerotte. He is not listed in the ADP (meaning QB35+). Frerotte is only ranked by two of the staff, AaronR and Bloom. His aggregate ranking for Qbs in 58. Linehan brought Gus from Minny to Miami for a reason. Now, Linehan brings Gus to St. Louis to be the backup QB.

In Miami last year, Gus had 3000 yards and 18 TDs, while starting 15 games. Those are not bad numbers at all. The personnel in StL is much better overall, especially at WR.

Bulger has produced well, but been nicked up often. He started 8 games in 2005, 14 games in 2004, and 15 games in 2003. If Bulger misses 2-4 games again in 2005, Frerotte will be a very good spot play. The defense in the division is improved some, but still very weak. Gus could have some very good games for your fantasy team down the stretch if Bulger is nicked up .... again.

 
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