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Slow week for Colston (1 Viewer)

Zigg

Footballguy
This is obviously based on opinion, but I think Colston will catch 4/5 balls for 50 yards. I just see the Bengals doing everything in their power to stop him, leaving openings for Horn and especially the running game. Coach Payton will try to keep the defense off the field with a grind it out running game, and the Bengals will probably do the same making the score lower than most assume.

 
This is obviously based on opinion, but I think Colston will catch 4/5 balls for 50 yards. I just see the Bengals doing everything in their power to stop him, leaving openings for Horn and especially the running game. Coach Payton will try to keep the defense off the field with a grind it out running game, and the Bengals will probably do the same making the score lower than most assume.
The assumption here is that they *can* stop him. In previous games with no Horn and Bush limited, Colston was still able to do damage and put up decent stats. I'm not disagreeing with you - the kid aint gonna put up 150+ yards and/or a TD or 2 every week, but I don't see a reason why Cinci will suddenly be able to stop him- especially given Cincy's horrid defense. While I concur that Colston will have an off week between now and the end of the year, I don't think it's this week. The other thing to keepin mind is that Brees sees Colston as a pseudo-Gates type player - he looks for his 6' 4" WR in the red zone, especially on 3rd and goal type situations. So even if he has an "off" day, that would be something like 60 yards + a TD - not the 20+ points we're used to, but a 12 point effort is decent...especially for a WR that most people snagged to be a WR2 or WR3.
 
November 17, 2006, 14:37

Bengals :: DB

CB O'Neal Downgraded To Doubtful

Mark Curnutte, Cincinnati Enquirer - [Full Article]

CIncinnati Bengals CB Deltha O'Neal was downgraded to doubtful on Friday. He did not practice and is unlikely to play Sunday against the Saints and their No. 1-ranked pass offense. If O'Neal is unable to play, look for rookie CB Johnathan Joseph to get the start and face the challenge of another rookie, WR Marques Colston of the Saints.

:excited:

 
This is obviously based on opinion, but I think Colston will catch 4/5 balls for 50 yards. I just see the Bengals doing everything in their power to stop him, leaving openings for Horn and especially the running game. Coach Payton will try to keep the defense off the field with a grind it out running game, and the Bengals will probably do the same making the score lower than most assume.
I was a little surprised that Cincinnati did not do everything in their power they could to stop LT last week. It really is a pretty simple game plan. Maybe they were saving all their power for stopping Colston this week.
 
Let's see...Bengals are #27 in receiving yardage defense, giving up 227 yards a game.

Yup, there' no doubt they'll hunker down and focus on stopping Brees and Colston. They probably haven't paid attention to stopping passing offenses until now.

 
This is obviously based on opinion, but I think Colston will catch 4/5 balls for 50 yards. I just see the Bengals doing everything in their power to stop him, leaving openings for Horn and especially the running game. Coach Payton will try to keep the defense off the field with a grind it out running game, and the Bengals will probably do the same making the score lower than most assume.
I was a little surprised that Cincinnati did not do everything in their power they could to stop LT last week. It really is a pretty simple game plan. Maybe they were saving all their power for stopping Colston this week.
Drew Brees is a smart, experienced QB. If the Bengals double team Colston, he'll just throw elsewhere. It's not comparable at all to stopping LT. This is in no way a knock on Colston, I just think he'll be double teamed, and Brees won't need to force it to him with Horn back. And to save the productive posts, I own and will start Colston in three of my four leagues. I simply see a decrease in production this week, just like happens to every single other WR(except maybe SS).
 
I'm anticipating a shootout and starting both Colston and Horn.

All year, people on this board have been saying that teams are going to start keying on Colston after seeing his production, and he will begin to slow down - guess what? He's just getting better and better. Many have said that he's not going to surprise teams anymore, but through 9 games, he's been remarkably consistent, and while you can't assume he's going to put up 100 yards or a TD every week, he's only had one real down game the entire season (3/38 against TB).

He was targeted a lot the last few weeks with Horn out, but the way I look at it, Horn's return is going to help keep some of the attention off of him. He's shown he can beat double coverage without another viable weapon across the field, and now with the 1b receiver returning to the lineup, I can't see him getting slowed down against this Bengals defense.

 
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This is obviously based on opinion, but I think Colston will catch 4/5 balls for 50 yards. I just see the Bengals doing everything in their power to stop him, leaving openings for Horn and especially the running game. Coach Payton will try to keep the defense off the field with a grind it out running game, and the Bengals will probably do the same making the score lower than most assume.
The assumption here is that they *can* stop him. In previous games with no Horn and Bush limited, Colston was still able to do damage and put up decent stats. I'm not disagreeing with you - the kid aint gonna put up 150+ yards and/or a TD or 2 every week, but I don't see a reason why Cinci will suddenly be able to stop him- especially given Cincy's horrid defense. While I concur that Colston will have an off week between now and the end of the year, I don't think it's this week. The other thing to keepin mind is that Brees sees Colston as a pseudo-Gates type player - he looks for his 6' 4" WR in the red zone, especially on 3rd and goal type situations. So even if he has an "off" day, that would be something like 60 yards + a TD - not the 20+ points we're used to, but a 12 point effort is decent...especially for a WR that most people snagged to be a WR2 or WR3.
I agree with most of your post, except for the bolded part. Decent stats? Huh?

11 receptions, 123 yards, 1 TD

10 receptions, 169 yards

I would call those amazing stats.

Colston will once again put up incredible numbers, because he is just that good. And because Brees is one of the best QBs in the league.

 
This is obviously based on opinion, but I think Colston will catch 4/5 balls for 50 yards. I just see the Bengals doing everything in their power to stop him, leaving openings for Horn and especially the running game. Coach Payton will try to keep the defense off the field with a grind it out running game, and the Bengals will probably do the same making the score lower than most assume.
The assumption here is that they *can* stop him. In previous games with no Horn and Bush limited, Colston was still able to do damage and put up decent stats. I'm not disagreeing with you - the kid aint gonna put up 150+ yards and/or a TD or 2 every week, but I don't see a reason why Cinci will suddenly be able to stop him- especially given Cincy's horrid defense. While I concur that Colston will have an off week between now and the end of the year, I don't think it's this week. The other thing to keepin mind is that Brees sees Colston as a pseudo-Gates type player - he looks for his 6' 4" WR in the red zone, especially on 3rd and goal type situations. So even if he has an "off" day, that would be something like 60 yards + a TD - not the 20+ points we're used to, but a 12 point effort is decent...especially for a WR that most people snagged to be a WR2 or WR3.
I agree with most of your post, except for the bolded part. Decent stats? Huh?

11 receptions, 123 yards, 1 TD

10 receptions, 169 yards

I would call those amazing stats.

Colston will once again put up incredible numbers, because he is just that good. And because Brees is one of the best QBs in the league.
:goodposting: Over the last 3 weeks, he's averaged 9/152/1 :excited:

 
Just because a team WANTS to stop someone, doesn't mean they will.
I don't think the Bengals will "stop" him, I think Brees will take what the Bengals give him.edit to add that I think the Bengals terrible D will make it worse for Colston. A double team his way leaves Horn and Co. with easy matchups against some poor DBs.
 
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Just because a team WANTS to stop someone, doesn't mean they will.
I don't think the Bengals will "stop" him, I think Brees will take what the Bengals give him.edit to add that I think the Bengals terrible D will make it worse for Colston. A double team his way leaves Horn and Co. with easy matchups against some poor DBs.
Yeah, because teams will double up Colston and let a scrub like horn fall through the cracks. :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:
 
Horn is coming off an injury, while Colston leads the league in receiving. You think it's laughable that Colston garners more attention?

 
Horn is coming off an injury, while Colston leads the league in receiving. You think it's laughable that Colston garners more attention?
LoL...the laughable part is you think an opposing defense just now "gets it" that Colston is pretty good. That being said...he's kinda due for a stinker just for odds sake.
 
I don't think the argument here is that the Bengals will stop the Saints passing game, only that they will make Colston the focus of the passing defense which will create openings for the other WRs.

George Halas I think it was used to say that he could stop any RB in the league...they just might get beat by the pass doing it. I can see the validity in suggesting that the Bengals will stop Colston, but Duece, Bush, and Horn will probably score instead.

That being said, one thing that I think is happening is that some teams are still focusing on Bush. I think a lot of the teams that play NO haven't forgotten the hype around Reggie and gameplan for him. I think they still see Bush as the top player that needs to be stopped rather than Colston or Brees, despite what the numbers say. I may be wrong, and I don't get to see many Saints games, but it is a thought.

 
November 17, 2006, 14:37 Bengals :: DBCB O'Neal Downgraded To DoubtfulMark Curnutte, Cincinnati Enquirer - [Full Article]CIncinnati Bengals CB Deltha O'Neal was downgraded to doubtful on Friday. He did not practice and is unlikely to play Sunday against the Saints and their No. 1-ranked pass offense. If O'Neal is unable to play, look for rookie CB Johnathan Joseph to get the start and face the challenge of another rookie, WR Marques Colston of the Saints. :excited:
The way O'Neal has been playing, this improves the Bengals defense.
 
Horn is coming off an injury, while Colston leads the league in receiving. You think it's laughable that Colston garners more attention?
Even coming off a injury Horn is still a very good WR. I don't think the Bengals can just double Colston all day, Horn will eat them alive.
 
This is in no way a knock on Colston, I just think he'll be double teamed, and Brees won't need to force it to him with Horn back.
I'm not so sure that Bress has ben forcing the ball to Colston. Targets/ReceptionsWeek 8: Horn (9-5) - Colston (14-6) - Bush (8-4)Week 9: Horn 0 - Colston (14-11) - Bush (6-4)Week 10: Horn 0 - Colston (13-10) - Copper (12-10) - Bush (12-7)If anything I think he started focusing on Bush and Copper more than anyone else. Colston is not an overwhelming option inside the Red Zone either. He had just one RZ "look" in those two games while McAllister and Bush combined for ten "looks", hardly proof that Brees is focusing on Colston. Of his seven touchdown receptions this year only three of them were from inside the opponents 20-yard line and he has been a RZ target just 10 times compared to 21 times for McAllister and 17 for Bush. One glaring stat from last weeks game though: Colston had nine receptions that resulted in first downs for the team. Awesome.Brees has a bag full of options at his disposal so he doesn't need to focus or force the ball to any one player. McAllister, Horn and especially Bush are getting enough touches to keep defenses from applying double coverage to Colston on a regular basis. Horn still has the ability to get down the field (he has TD receptions of 48 and 32 yards this year) and we all know how big of a RZ threat he has been over the years so he demands attention in that area as well.I think that Colston has a solid game unless Brees has a bad one. If they do double team him then Horn (assuming he is healthy) and Bush should be very productive this week in ppr leagues.
 
Colston is 6' 4" & 231 lbs

LCB (for this game with the O'Neal injury) Jonathon Joseph is 5' 11" & 193 lbs & a Rookie

RCB Tory James is 6' 2" & 190 lbs

FS Madieu Williams is 6' 1" & 193 lbs

SS Dexter Jackson is 6' 1" & 203 lbs

No matter who the Bengals put on Colston, he is going to enjoy at a minimum, a 2" height advantage & around a 30 lbs weight advantage.

 
I can't wait for this thread to die and then be bumped on Sunday at about 3:30 EST on Sunday.Hofstra Gold.
The problem is, if Colstoin has his typical game- 100+ yards, a touchdown, this thread disappears into obscurity.If Colston has a pedestrian 6 catches for 70 yard game, this thread-starter will be bump it and say "i told you so"
 
I can't wait for this thread to die and then be bumped on Sunday at about 3:30 EST on Sunday.Hofstra Gold.
The problem is, if Colstoin has his typical game- 100+ yards, a touchdown, this thread disappears into obscurity.If Colston has a pedestrian 6 catches for 70 yard game, this thread-starter will be bump it and say "i told you so"
Ahhh, but we won't let it disappear into obscurity. We will be on here, trashing the original poster, calling his parentage into question, nominating him for Guppy of the Year, etc. :D
 
I participate in two leagues, both of which I own and am starting Colston... so I'm a bit biased.

I have no idea what Cinci's def gameplan is. Who really knows what players they will truly focus on. My guess is that Colston has to start getting some serious attention from defensive coordinators now. That said, with Cinci's track record vs. WRs thus far this year, which according to FFTodays FF Points Allowed data is pretty good (they give up a lot of points to TEs though) and the fact Horn is back in the mix; and I think its likely Colston has only a solid game and not spectacular. Maybe 5 catches for 60 yards. I don't think this is the game to bank on 100 yards and a TD from Colston... its not impossible at all, just not super-likely, imo.

 
This is a borderline useless conversation to even have. Who is on your bench right now that with a straight face you can start over a WR who has 54/869/7 through 9 games?

I have no clue whether what we've seen so far from Colston is an accurate indicator for his career, but as far as this season goes he's as much of a must-start as any player in fantasy football.

 
This is a borderline useless conversation to even have. Who is on your bench right now that with a straight face you can start over a WR who has 54/869/7 through 9 games? I have no clue whether what we've seen so far from Colston is an accurate indicator for his career, but as far as this season goes he's as much of a must-start as any player in fantasy football.
:goodposting: I think he'll top 100 RecYds easily.
 
This is a borderline useless conversation to even have. Who is on your bench right now that with a straight face you can start over a WR who has 54/869/7 through 9 games?

I have no clue whether what we've seen so far from Colston is an accurate indicator for his career, but as far as this season goes he's as much of a must-start as any player in fantasy football.
I generally agree. I don't feel any player is beyond at least considering other players to start in their stead, based on matchups, weather, key injuries etc. That said, it'd be a VERY hard sell to keep Colston on the bench at this point. He has been so good. Even his down weeks are solid. My only point from a couple posts above is that I don't think based on the matchup (the fact that Cinci doesn't give up a ton of points to WRs) and the fact that Horn should be back, I don't think we can call Colston a virtual lock for 100+ yards this week. Believe me, I hope he can... and I think its definitely possible, but I think expectations for the guy should be tempered at least a tiny bit.

 
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This is a borderline useless conversation to even have. Who is on your bench right now that with a straight face you can start over a WR who has 54/869/7 through 9 games?

I have no clue whether what we've seen so far from Colston is an accurate indicator for his career, but as far as this season goes he's as much of a must-start as any player in fantasy football.
I generally agree. I don't feel any player is beyond at least considering other players to start in their stead, based on matchups, weather, key injuries etc. That said, it'd be a VERY hard sell to keep Colston on the bench at this point. He has been so good. Even his down weeks are solid. My only point from a couple posts above is that I don't think based on the matchup (the fact that Cinci doesn't give up a ton of points to WRs) and the fact that Horn should be back, I don't think we can call Colston a virtual lock for 100+ yards this week. Believe me, I hope he can... and I think its definitely possible, but I think expectations for the guy should be tempered at least a tiny bit.
Not to belabor the point, but keep in mind that saying that somone "is not a lock for 100 yards" is hardly an epithet. Colston's not averaging 100 yards per game, and an average of "only" 80 yards per game has a player ending the year with almost 1300 yards after 16 games. In games with Horn playing Colston's averaged 5/82/1. Yes, his numbers jumped even beyond those lofty heights when Horn missed the last two games, but this guy's a stud regardless.

 
I can't wait for this thread to die and then be bumped on Sunday at about 3:30 EST on Sunday.Hofstra Gold.
The problem is, if Colstoin has his typical game- 100+ yards, a touchdown, this thread disappears into obscurity.If Colston has a pedestrian 6 catches for 70 yard game, this thread-starter will be bump it and say "i told you so"
I'm a Saint fan starting Colston in 75% of my leagues, I have nothing to gain with a Colston bad game. I just honestly think he will have a mediocre game this Sunday. I will admit it if I'm wrong, and won't bump if I'm right. Horn 10/130/TD
 
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This is a borderline useless conversation to even have. Who is on your bench right now that with a straight face you can start over a WR who has 54/869/7 through 9 games?

I have no clue whether what we've seen so far from Colston is an accurate indicator for his career, but as far as this season goes he's as much of a must-start as any player in fantasy football.
I generally agree. I don't feel any player is beyond at least considering other players to start in their stead, based on matchups, weather, key injuries etc. That said, it'd be a VERY hard sell to keep Colston on the bench at this point. He has been so good. Even his down weeks are solid. My only point from a couple posts above is that I don't think based on the matchup (the fact that Cinci doesn't give up a ton of points to WRs) and the fact that Horn should be back, I don't think we can call Colston a virtual lock for 100+ yards this week. Believe me, I hope he can... and I think its definitely possible, but I think expectations for the guy should be tempered at least a tiny bit.
Not to belabor the point, but keep in mind that saying that somone "is not a lock for 100 yards" is hardly an epithet. Colston's not averaging 100 yards per game, and an average of "only" 80 yards per game has a player ending the year with almost 1300 yards after 16 games. In games with Horn playing Colston's averaged 5/82/1. Yes, his numbers jumped even beyond those lofty heights when Horn missed the last two games, but this guy's a stud regardless.
Yet again, I'm not really arguing anything you're saying. Its all pretty reasonable.There have simply been a couple/few comments by others in this thread that since its the Bengals defense and since Colston has been on fire the last three weeks that he will continue to produce 100 yards easily. That is the logic that I don't quite agree with. The numbers have shown that Cinci, thus far, has not yielded all that many FF points to WRs. And using Colston's produciton from the last three weeks is a bit skewed with Horn out the last two of them.

I know saying that he isn't a lock for a 100 yards this week is not at all a bold statement on my part. I usually avoid bold statements unless I feel it is absolutely warranted.

I think Colston should have a solid week, and there is of course a decent chance he could explode again this week... thats why I'm starting him in both of the leagues that I am in. The game could potentially turn into a shootout and Colston could bust another big play late...

I just think that with Horn back and Cinci being decent against WRs so far, it isn't a safe assumption that Colston this week will be the producer he has been the last 3-4 weeks.

The basic gist of my few posts has been this: Lets think about the impact of Horn's return and consider how WRs have fared so far vs. Cinci... In doing so, I think many of us need to temper our expectations for Colston this week if we are thinking he is a lock for 100+ yds and 1 TD. Are those numbers achievable? Absolutely, just not extremely likely. And as you point out Redman, those numbers are noticeably above his season averages anyway, let alone his averages when Horn is in the lineup.

So I think we basically agree with one another here. Colston is a stud and a guy that should almost always be in your starting lineup now, he is in the upper tier of WRs. My points have more been directed toward the couple/few that have very lofty expectations for Colston this week.

 
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I can't wait for this thread to die and then be bumped on Sunday at about 3:30 EST on Sunday.Hofstra Gold.
The problem is, if Colstoin has his typical game- 100+ yards, a touchdown, this thread disappears into obscurity.If Colston has a pedestrian 6 catches for 70 yard game, this thread-starter will be bump it and say "i told you so"
I'm a Saint fan starting Colston in 75% of my leagues, I have nothing to gain with a Colston bad game. I just honestly think he will have a mediocre game this Sunday. I will admit it if I'm wrong, and won't bump if I'm right. Horn 10/130/TD
Without defining "mediocre" in this context your promise to reappear here means little.
 
I can't wait for this thread to die and then be bumped on Sunday at about 3:30 EST on Sunday.Hofstra Gold.
The problem is, if Colstoin has his typical game- 100+ yards, a touchdown, this thread disappears into obscurity.If Colston has a pedestrian 6 catches for 70 yard game, this thread-starter will be bump it and say "i told you so"
I'm a Saint fan starting Colston in 75% of my leagues, I have nothing to gain with a Colston bad game. I just honestly think he will have a mediocre game this Sunday. I will admit it if I'm wrong, and won't bump if I'm right. Horn 10/130/TD
Without defining "mediocre" in this context your promise to reappear here means little.
Mediocre was defined in my first post as 4/5 catches for 50 yards.
 
This is a borderline useless conversation to even have. Who is on your bench right now that with a straight face you can start over a WR who has 54/869/7 through 9 games?

I have no clue whether what we've seen so far from Colston is an accurate indicator for his career, but as far as this season goes he's as much of a must-start as any player in fantasy football.
I generally agree. I don't feel any player is beyond at least considering other players to start in their stead, based on matchups, weather, key injuries etc. That said, it'd be a VERY hard sell to keep Colston on the bench at this point. He has been so good. Even his down weeks are solid. My only point from a couple posts above is that I don't think based on the matchup (the fact that Cinci doesn't give up a ton of points to WRs) and the fact that Horn should be back, I don't think we can call Colston a virtual lock for 100+ yards this week. Believe me, I hope he can... and I think its definitely possible, but I think expectations for the guy should be tempered at least a tiny bit.
Not to belabor the point, but keep in mind that saying that somone "is not a lock for 100 yards" is hardly an epithet. Colston's not averaging 100 yards per game, and an average of "only" 80 yards per game has a player ending the year with almost 1300 yards after 16 games. In games with Horn playing Colston's averaged 5/82/1. Yes, his numbers jumped even beyond those lofty heights when Horn missed the last two games, but this guy's a stud regardless.
Yet again, I'm not really arguing anything you're saying. Its all pretty reasonable.There have simply been a couple/few comments by others in this thread that since its the Bengals defense and since Colston has been on fire the last three weeks that he will continue to produce 100 yards easily. That is the logic that I don't quite agree with. The numbers have shown that Cinci, thus far, has not yielded all that many FF points to WRs. And using Colston's produciton from the last three weeks is a bit skewed with Horn out the last two of them.

I know saying that he isn't a lock for a 100 yards this week is not at all a bold statement on my part. I usually avoid bold statements unless I feel it is absolutely warranted.

I think Colston should have a solid week, and there is of course a decent chance he could explode again this week... thats why I'm starting him in both of the leagues that I am in. The game could potentially turn into a shootout and Colston could bust another big play late...

I just think that with Horn back and Cinci being decent against WRs so far, it isn't a safe assumption that Colston this week will be the producer he has been the last 3-4 weeks.

The basic premise of my few posts has been this: Lets think about the impact of Horn's return and consider how WRs have fared so far vs. Cinci... In doing so, I think many of us need to temper our expectations for Colston this week if we are thinking he is a lock for 100+ yds and 1 TD. Are those numbers achievable? Absolutely, just not extremely likely. And as you point out Redman, those numbers are noticeably above his season averages anyway, let alone his averages when Horn is in the lineup.

So I think we basically agree with one another here. Colston is a stud and a guy that should almost always be in your starting lineup now, he is in the upper tier of WRs. My points have more been directed toward the couple/few that have very lofty expectations for Colston this week.
I would consider Colston likely the top receiver for the Saints in this game. Here's how Cinci has defended the top receivers this season: W01: T. Gonzalez 10/81/1 (starting QB was knocked out of the fgame early)

W02: B. Edwards 4/110/0

W03: C. Wilson 3/73/0 (Big Ben sucked with 0 TDs and 3 INTs)

W04: D. Gabriel 4/57/1 (Brady spread it around as usual)

W05: Bye

W06: J. Galloway 7/67/0

W07: S. Smith 8/126/0

W08: A. Crumpler 4/72/1

W09: T. Heap 4/84/0

W10: M. Floyd 5/109/1 (Palmer threw for 440/3!)

I'd say the big receiving threats against the Bengals have been few, but when a guy like Steve Smith or even Braylon Edwards play them, they have typically good games, not "slow weeks". Other receivers seemed to have above average days too, although I'm not looking up their AVG for proof. (One might ask about Hines Ward. Well he didn't have 60 ReYd any game in the first five or six games.)

Now everyone knows Steve Smith is the man for Carolina, so Cinci knew who they had to cover then. That situation is what I find the most comparable to Colston. Steve got his 126 ReYds and I feel Colston gets his above average too.

Edit: Removed a QB stat from last week where I copied and pasted the wrong QB stats by accident. Rivers went 338/3 in that game.

 
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This is a borderline useless conversation to even have. Who is on your bench right now that with a straight face you can start over a WR who has 54/869/7 through 9 games?

I have no clue whether what we've seen so far from Colston is an accurate indicator for his career, but as far as this season goes he's as much of a must-start as any player in fantasy football.
I generally agree. I don't feel any player is beyond at least considering other players to start in their stead, based on matchups, weather, key injuries etc. That said, it'd be a VERY hard sell to keep Colston on the bench at this point. He has been so good. Even his down weeks are solid. My only point from a couple posts above is that I don't think based on the matchup (the fact that Cinci doesn't give up a ton of points to WRs) and the fact that Horn should be back, I don't think we can call Colston a virtual lock for 100+ yards this week. Believe me, I hope he can... and I think its definitely possible, but I think expectations for the guy should be tempered at least a tiny bit.
Not to belabor the point, but keep in mind that saying that somone "is not a lock for 100 yards" is hardly an epithet. Colston's not averaging 100 yards per game, and an average of "only" 80 yards per game has a player ending the year with almost 1300 yards after 16 games. In games with Horn playing Colston's averaged 5/82/1. Yes, his numbers jumped even beyond those lofty heights when Horn missed the last two games, but this guy's a stud regardless.
Yet again, I'm not really arguing anything you're saying. Its all pretty reasonable.There have simply been a couple/few comments by others in this thread that since its the Bengals defense and since Colston has been on fire the last three weeks that he will continue to produce 100 yards easily. That is the logic that I don't quite agree with. The numbers have shown that Cinci, thus far, has not yielded all that many FF points to WRs. And using Colston's produciton from the last three weeks is a bit skewed with Horn out the last two of them.

I know saying that he isn't a lock for a 100 yards this week is not at all a bold statement on my part. I usually avoid bold statements unless I feel it is absolutely warranted.

I think Colston should have a solid week, and there is of course a decent chance he could explode again this week... thats why I'm starting him in both of the leagues that I am in. The game could potentially turn into a shootout and Colston could bust another big play late...

I just think that with Horn back and Cinci being decent against WRs so far, it isn't a safe assumption that Colston this week will be the producer he has been the last 3-4 weeks.

The basic premise of my few posts has been this: Lets think about the impact of Horn's return and consider how WRs have fared so far vs. Cinci... In doing so, I think many of us need to temper our expectations for Colston this week if we are thinking he is a lock for 100+ yds and 1 TD. Are those numbers achievable? Absolutely, just not extremely likely. And as you point out Redman, those numbers are noticeably above his season averages anyway, let alone his averages when Horn is in the lineup.

So I think we basically agree with one another here. Colston is a stud and a guy that should almost always be in your starting lineup now, he is in the upper tier of WRs. My points have more been directed toward the couple/few that have very lofty expectations for Colston this week.
I would consider Colston likely the top receiver for the Saints in this game. Here's how Cinci has defended the top receivers this season: W01: T. Gonzalez 10/81/1 (starting QB was knocked out of the fgame early)

W02: B. Edwards 4/110/0

W03: C. Wilson 3/73/0 (Big Ben sucked with 0 TDs and 3 INTs)

W04: D. Gabriel 4/57/1 (Brady spread it around as usual)

W05: Bye

W06: J. Galloway 7/67/0

W07: S. Smith 8/126/0

W08: A. Crumpler 4/72/1

W09: T. Heap 4/84/0

W10: M. Floyd 5/109/1 (Palmer threw for 440/3!)

I'd say the big receiving threats against the Bengals have been few, but when a guy like Steve Smith or even Braylon Edwards play them, they have typically good games, not "slow weeks". Other receivers seemed to have above average days too, although I'm not looking up their AVG for proof. (One might ask about Hines Ward. Well he didn't have 60 ReYd any game in the first five or six games.)

Now everyone knows Steve Smith is the man for Carolina, so Cinci knew who they had to cover then. That situation is what I find the most comparable to Colston. Steve got his 126 ReYds and I feel Colston gets his above average too.

Edit: Removed a QB stat from last week where I copied and pasted the wrong QB stats by accident. Rivers went 338/3 in that game.
I stated in a previous post that TEs have fared well vs Cinci, its the WRs that have not (as a whole). I don't think including Gonzo, Crumpler and Heap really is apples to apples here. But I do like the general concept of looking at top receiving threats vs Cinci... I just think that should be more top WRs vs Cinci... just my preference. Plus, if you're talking about how the top receiving threats (whether WR or TE) have fared vs Cinci, I don't know that guys like M. Floyd should be used. He is more of an ancillary threat.
 
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This is a borderline useless conversation to even have. Who is on your bench right now that with a straight face you can start over a WR who has 54/869/7 through 9 games?

I have no clue whether what we've seen so far from Colston is an accurate indicator for his career, but as far as this season goes he's as much of a must-start as any player in fantasy football.
I generally agree. I don't feel any player is beyond at least considering other players to start in their stead, based on matchups, weather, key injuries etc. That said, it'd be a VERY hard sell to keep Colston on the bench at this point. He has been so good. Even his down weeks are solid. My only point from a couple posts above is that I don't think based on the matchup (the fact that Cinci doesn't give up a ton of points to WRs) and the fact that Horn should be back, I don't think we can call Colston a virtual lock for 100+ yards this week. Believe me, I hope he can... and I think its definitely possible, but I think expectations for the guy should be tempered at least a tiny bit.
Not to belabor the point, but keep in mind that saying that somone "is not a lock for 100 yards" is hardly an epithet. Colston's not averaging 100 yards per game, and an average of "only" 80 yards per game has a player ending the year with almost 1300 yards after 16 games. In games with Horn playing Colston's averaged 5/82/1. Yes, his numbers jumped even beyond those lofty heights when Horn missed the last two games, but this guy's a stud regardless.
Yet again, I'm not really arguing anything you're saying. Its all pretty reasonable.There have simply been a couple/few comments by others in this thread that since its the Bengals defense and since Colston has been on fire the last three weeks that he will continue to produce 100 yards easily. That is the logic that I don't quite agree with. The numbers have shown that Cinci, thus far, has not yielded all that many FF points to WRs. And using Colston's produciton from the last three weeks is a bit skewed with Horn out the last two of them.

I know saying that he isn't a lock for a 100 yards this week is not at all a bold statement on my part. I usually avoid bold statements unless I feel it is absolutely warranted.

I think Colston should have a solid week, and there is of course a decent chance he could explode again this week... thats why I'm starting him in both of the leagues that I am in. The game could potentially turn into a shootout and Colston could bust another big play late...

I just think that with Horn back and Cinci being decent against WRs so far, it isn't a safe assumption that Colston this week will be the producer he has been the last 3-4 weeks.

The basic premise of my few posts has been this: Lets think about the impact of Horn's return and consider how WRs have fared so far vs. Cinci... In doing so, I think many of us need to temper our expectations for Colston this week if we are thinking he is a lock for 100+ yds and 1 TD. Are those numbers achievable? Absolutely, just not extremely likely. And as you point out Redman, those numbers are noticeably above his season averages anyway, let alone his averages when Horn is in the lineup.

So I think we basically agree with one another here. Colston is a stud and a guy that should almost always be in your starting lineup now, he is in the upper tier of WRs. My points have more been directed toward the couple/few that have very lofty expectations for Colston this week.
I would consider Colston likely the top receiver for the Saints in this game. Here's how Cinci has defended the top receivers this season: W01: T. Gonzalez 10/81/1 (starting QB was knocked out of the fgame early)

W02: B. Edwards 4/110/0

W03: C. Wilson 3/73/0 (Big Ben sucked with 0 TDs and 3 INTs)

W04: D. Gabriel 4/57/1 (Brady spread it around as usual)

W05: Bye

W06: J. Galloway 7/67/0

W07: S. Smith 8/126/0

W08: A. Crumpler 4/72/1

W09: T. Heap 4/84/0

W10: M. Floyd 5/109/1 (Palmer threw for 440/3!)

I'd say the big receiving threats against the Bengals have been few, but when a guy like Steve Smith or even Braylon Edwards play them, they have typically good games, not "slow weeks". Other receivers seemed to have above average days too, although I'm not looking up their AVG for proof. (One might ask about Hines Ward. Well he didn't have 60 ReYd any game in the first five or six games.)

Now everyone knows Steve Smith is the man for Carolina, so Cinci knew who they had to cover then. That situation is what I find the most comparable to Colston. Steve got his 126 ReYds and I feel Colston gets his above average too.

Edit: Removed a QB stat from last week where I copied and pasted the wrong QB stats by accident. Rivers went 338/3 in that game.
I stated in a previous post that TEs have fared well vs Cinci, its the WRs that have not (as a whole). I don't think including Gonzo, Crumpler and Heap really is apples to apples here. But I do like the general concept of looking at top receiving threats vs Cinci... I just think that should be more top WRs vs Cinci... just my preference. Plus, if you're talking about how the top receiving threats (whether WR or TE) have fared vs Cinci, I don't know that guys like M. Floyd should be used. He is more of an ancillary threat.
Point taken, however I'm not going to bother to apply the changes to three games based on the position of the receivers because I think my point is proven with the if not unamimous, then near unanimous, above average stats displayed. Take the 3 TE's out, and you still have a majority trend for above average receiving success regardless if the three others don't pan out or not. You can also note that Braylon Edwards had the 100+ yard game on a team where TE Winslow seems to be the primary receiver.

 
Hi SickThing-

The problem with your stats, imho, is that you simply used the top performing WR/TE against Cinci for that given week and not the presumed or widely considered top WR for the oposing team, in your sample.

When you say, "Colston is the top receiver for the Saints and here is how the top receivers have done vs. Cinci"... and then use Cedrick Wilson and M. Floyd in your stats you are not using the top recivers from those teams... just the top peformer from that given day.

When you show that the top producing receiver (not WR) against Cinci in a given week goes for about 95 yards and 0.5 TDs in a week (on average), I don't think that is too significant or a sign that Colston will likely go off on Cinci.

Those stats may show that one player (any player that catches passes) for NO will go for at least 95 yds and a TD against Cinci; whether that be Colston, Horn, or Bush I don't think your example addresses at all.

I like where you were going with your data sample, but I don't think how you set it up is very useful in this case. If you chose what is widely considered to be the top WRs for each team opposing Cinci and look how that group fared agains Cinci, I think the data could be applied to Colston at this point. Kennison for KC, Edwards for Clev, Steve Smith for Car, Ward for Pitt etc. etc. Using such a sample I feel you would be comparing apples to apples.

After using such a group, one could suggest that Colston is better than the average Top WR from the teams Cinci has faced. I would agree with that too, and think from that point you could potentially bump his numbers up a bit. I feel this would be fair given his produciton this year.

Just my thoughts.

Again, I really like where you were headed with your data sample. And gerenally I think Coslton should have a solid game.

 
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Hi SickThing- The problem with your stats, imho, is that you simply used the top performing WR/TE against Cinci for that given week and not the presumed or widely considered top WR for the oposing team, in your sample. When you say, "Colston is the top receiver for the Saints and here is how the top receivers have done vs. Cinci"... and then use Cedrick Wilson and M. Floyd in your stats you are not using the top recivers from those teams... just the top peformer from that given day. When you show that the top producing receiver (not WR) against Cinci in a given week goes for about 95 yards and 0.5 TDs in a week (on average), I don't think that is too significant or a sign that Colston will likely go off on Cinci. Those stats may show that one player (any player that catches passes) for NO will go for at least 95 yds and a TD against Cinci; whether that be Colston, Horn, or Bush I don't think your example addresses at all.I like where you were going with your data sample, but I don't think how you set it up is very useful in this case. If you chose what is widely considered to be the top WRs for each team opposing Cinci and look how that group fared agains Cinci, I think the data could be applied to Colston at this point. Kennison for KC, Edwards for Clev, Steve Smith for Car, Ward for Pitt etc. etc. Using such a sample I feel you would be comparing apples to apples.After using such a group, one could suggest that Colston is better than the average Top WR from the teams Cinci has faced. I would agree with that too, and think from that point you could potentially bump his numbers up a bit. I feel this would be fair given his produciton this year.Just my thoughts.Again, I really like where you were headed with your data sample. And gerenally I think Coslton should have a solid game.
Gotcha. I thought I covered it with my opening statement that I assumed Colston would be the top receiving option for the Saints in this game and then compared other top receiving options.
 
Hi SickThing- The problem with your stats, imho, is that you simply used the top performing WR/TE against Cinci for that given week and not the presumed or widely considered top WR for the oposing team, in your sample. When you say, "Colston is the top receiver for the Saints and here is how the top receivers have done vs. Cinci"... and then use Cedrick Wilson and M. Floyd in your stats you are not using the top recivers from those teams... just the top peformer from that given day. When you show that the top producing receiver (not WR) against Cinci in a given week goes for about 95 yards and 0.5 TDs in a week (on average), I don't think that is too significant or a sign that Colston will likely go off on Cinci. Those stats may show that one player (any player that catches passes) for NO will go for at least 95 yds and a TD against Cinci; whether that be Colston, Horn, or Bush I don't think your example addresses at all.I like where you were going with your data sample, but I don't think how you set it up is very useful in this case. If you chose what is widely considered to be the top WRs for each team opposing Cinci and look how that group fared agains Cinci, I think the data could be applied to Colston at this point. Kennison for KC, Edwards for Clev, Steve Smith for Car, Ward for Pitt etc. etc. Using such a sample I feel you would be comparing apples to apples.After using such a group, one could suggest that Colston is better than the average Top WR from the teams Cinci has faced. I would agree with that too, and think from that point you could potentially bump his numbers up a bit. I feel this would be fair given his produciton this year.Just my thoughts.Again, I really like where you were headed with your data sample. And gerenally I think Coslton should have a solid game.
Gotcha. I thought I covered it with my opening statement that I assumed Colston would be the top receiving option for the Saints in this game and then compared other top receiving options.
Ok, fair enough. I guess I'd be totally cool with your data if you also provided stats on how frequently Colston is the top receiving producer for NO (including all WRs, RBs and TEs receiving data). If (just a guess) Colston was the top FF receiving producer for NO in 5 out of 9 games, I think you could say that he has around a 55.56% (5/9) chance of producing numbers very similar to the average of the top receivers Cinci has faced thus far (your list from above). I would be pretty comfortable with that. Did my rambling make sense?? I hope so.
 
OK here's the data on top WRs against Cinci this year (with TEs excluded).

W01: D. Hall 5/31/0 (starting QB was knocked out of the game early. TE Gonzalez went 10/81/1 and RB Johnson for 5/80/0)

W02: B. Edwards 4/110/0

W03: C. Wilson 3/73/0 (Big Ben sucked with 0 TDs and 3 INTs)

W04: D. Gabriel 4/57/1 (Brady spread it around as usual)

W05: Bye

W06: J. Galloway 7/67/0

W07: S. Smith 8/126/0

W08: A. Lelie 3/55/0 (TE Crumpler went 4/72/1)

W09: M. Clayton 8/73/0 (TE Heap went 4/84/0)

W10: M. Floyd 5/109/1 (Palmer threw for 440/3.)

So even with top receivers Crumpler (8) and Heap (9) replaced with a WR, these WRs seem to have an above average yardage day. Even Vick threw for 3 TDs vs Cinci.

 
The thing about Colston is that yes he is a WR but he is more of a tweener WR/TE. New Orleans runs thier offense a bit differently than other teams do. And Brees plays a bit differently in terms of his targets and progressions as well.

New Orleans target data:

Colston, Marques (WR) (NOR) 81 53 65% 856 7

Bush, Reggie (RB) (NOR) 73 54 74% 356 0

Horn, Joe (WR) (NOR) 49 30 61% 507 3

McAllister, Deuce (RB) (NOR) 22 18 82% 87 0

Copper, Terrance (WR) (NOR) 19 10 53% 138 1

Henderson, Devery (WR) (NOR) 17 11 65% 221 3

Stecker, Aaron (RB) (NOR) 15 12 80% 133 0

Campbell, Mark (TE) (NOR) 14 10 71% 109 0

Conwell, Ernie (TE) (NOR) 13 8 62% 57 1

Karney, Mike (FB) (NOR) 5 4 80% 10 0

Miller, Billy (TE) (NOR) 4 2 50% 23 0

Moore, Lance (WR) (NOR) 3 1 33% 10 0

Lawrie, Nate (TE) (NOR) 2 1 50% 17 0

McIntyre, Corey (FB) (NOR) 2 1 50% 10 0

Jones, Jamal (WR) (NOR) 1 1 100% 8 0

Colston is Bree's primary target just as Gates was for him in SD. Followed by Reggie Bush similar to LT was for him in SD. Then you have Joe Horn = Keenan McCardell. Then the rest of the recievers.

As far as the Bengals being able to take Bree's primary weapon away from him? I don't see how they are going to do it. Teams were trying lots of things schematicly with double coverage to take Gates away but they couldn't do it. This type of offense really causes fits for the linebackers and safeties because they have so many different threats and responsibilities. The offense dictates to the defense much of the time who is going to get open with thier routes and formations and Brees chooses which mismatches to exploit when he "takes" what the defense will give him.

 

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