hey,i am kinda new to this forum, but i have played in IDP rules for a number of years with some pretty good success.here is my 'magic formula'1- Go to depth chart and find players who have starting jobs at historically strong fantasy positions like MLB or WLB in a 4-3 or ILB in 3-4, SS, LDE, and to lesser extents FS and RDE.When you find these players, do some research on them to see if they are secure in starting job, what they did last year if they started, what the guy (or guys) before them did. 2- Remember that you are drafting based on a projection of what will happen THIS season: It’s like those commercials for the gold coins, past performances is not always an indicator of future earnings. Just because a player ranked in the top 20 at his position last season does not mean he will again. Has he had a position switch or has his team had an scheme change? Does he have age or injury concerns? Has the player moved to a new team where his role has change?3- Instead of settling for known mediocrity, draft for 'upside'- DB Joe Bleaux has finished ranked between 30-45 for the last two seasons. He scores a few points below the league average and you need a third-DB. His track record says that he will consistently score below average. Let that player pass, and find a first-year starter at SS who might be flying under the radar. Someone who won a job late in camp who is in a position where others may have had success before. 4- Know the player’s position within the team’s defensive system: Look, Fullbacks are Running Backs, but with EXTREMELY rare exception you would not draft one with the idea of starting him at RB. Why? Because you know that it’s not the job of Fullbacks to do things that pile up fantasy statistics for themselves. Sure, every now and then one will, out of the blue score 3 TD ala Fred Beasley a few years back, but that’s rare and not something you can project. While this seems logical to everyone, some teams STILL draft players who play OLB positions in a 3-4, the SLB spot in a 4-3 or non-RCT CB and expect them to produce. Sure, occasionally that OLB will have three sacks in a game, but for the weeks when he has one or none he is a below average player. Ditto for the standout cover corner who, when they do test him, makes an INT and runs it back for a TD. Are three huge games a season worth 10 duds?5- Focus on players at LB and DB who excel in TACKLES rather than less predictable stats (INTs and Sacks): Along the lines of what is above, find players who consistently put up strong tackle numbers. Those are much easier to project than things like Sacks and INTs. The one exception to this is defensive lineman, where a sack performer can overcome low tackle numbers due to the low position average6- Rookie Corner Theory: The job of a corner back is to cover WR and prevent pass completions. With Rookie Corners, as well as first year starters or players who play opposite stud corners, you can sometimes find players who are ‘picked on’ by opposing offenses and have high tackle numbers. These are GREAT short-term fillers, if used as such. In general though, if a guy has high tackle numbers, its cause he can’t cover. Guys either learn to cover, or lose their job. There are a few exceptions to this rule, where the team’s defensive scheme puts a corner in run support from time to time, but these are few and far between. Also, don’t draft a corner hoping for great ‘passes defensed’ numbers. The NFL leader the last few years has had right around 20, or one per game. A PD counts the same as a tackle in my league.7- A good situation is often better than talent: This is pretty much a repeat of 4, but it bears repeating. If you put an average player at a high scoring position on a team whose defense is on the field often, he is more likely to put up big statistics than a highly talented player at a typically lower scoring position or on a good team. Just because a player is an All-Pro on defense does not mean he will be a consistently strong fantasy player. On the other hand, a guy may barely win a starting job, but be a fantasy star cause he piles on the tackles.8- Know the league’s scoring system: Again, this can relate to some of the above suggestions, but what I specifically mean here is when reading outside sites, do not be mislead by their recommendations when they may not be suited to our league. The mainstream fantasy football world (places like ESPN, Sporting News, etc) seem to cater to IDP leagues that start a few players and look at sacks and INTs rather than tackles. Now, if they say “has good value in tackle leagues” that’s my league!9- Your STUDS are guys who have high tackle numbers who are also playmakers.
L: Look for teams that allow lots of sacks.LB: Look for teams with strong running attacks.SS: Look for teams with really strong running attacks.FS: Look for teams that throw lots of INTs.Looking at last year's numbers, these were the teams to start your LBs against, in order. Unfortunately, that's not broken down by MLB/OLB or 3/4 LBs.TennesseeSan FranciscoSeattleCincinnatiTampa BayBuffaloBaltimoreKansas CityChicagoMiamiDenverHoustonPittsburghOaklandGreen BayWashingtonNY JetsAtlantaNew OrleansArizonaNY GiantsNew EnglandSan DiegoIndianapolisDallasJacksonvilleCarolinaMinnesotaClevelandDetroitSt. LouisPhiladelphia
