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So what do you look for in IDP matchups? (1 Viewer)

No. 16

Footballguy
I'm new to the IDP scene and I really have no idea as to what things to look for matchup wise when determining which IDPs to start?Do you look for a IDPer who's ON A BAD offensive team or one playing a good or bad offense?What are things you generally look for and are they position specific?Like for DLs look for matchups against a poor running team?LBs look for teams with a good running game?DBs facing top passing attacks?Any tips match up wise would be so helpful! Maybe this would get rid of some of the who do I start/bench threads.

 
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Like for DLs look for matchups against a poor running team?

More like looking for the OLs who are really bad. One year, the perfect example was John St. Clair for the Rams. The guy was a turnstile. I looked forward to starting the opposing DE against him. Watch the Sacks surrendered column. It will give you an indication of what teams have the worst OL play.

LBs look for teams with a good running game?

Honestly, I look for LBs on teams with horrible defenses. Mediocre waiver wire guys like Danny Clark can end up Top20 LBs simply because their defense can't get off the field. Lots of OFF plays against = stat stockpiling.

DBs facing top passing attacks?

Again, the DB #s to target are good solo tackle guys - they're the steadiest. I catually look at teams that can't stop the run. The NO Saints are an example. Horrible LB play has turned both the FS & SS into tackling machines.

Just some random thoughts....

 

Tick

Footballguy
Great info here, I'd like to see more...What I look for, and I know I'm not good at it:DL: Look for teams that allow lots of sacks.LB: Look for teams with strong running attacks.SS: Look for teams with really strong running attacks.FS: Look for teams that throw lots of INTs.Looking at last year's numbers, these were the teams to start your LBs against, in order. Unfortunately, that's not broken down by MLB/OLB or 3/4 LBs.TennesseeSan FranciscoSeattleCincinnatiTampa BayBuffaloBaltimoreKansas CityChicagoMiamiDenverHoustonPittsburghOaklandGreen BayWashingtonNY JetsAtlantaNew OrleansArizonaNY GiantsNew EnglandSan DiegoIndianapolisDallasJacksonvilleCarolinaMinnesotaClevelandDetroitSt. LouisPhiladelphia

 

Tick

Footballguy
For DLs, the order of teams that you want to play against last year (again, no breakdown to DT/DE or NT/DE.San FranciscoChicagoNY GiantsTennesseeAtlantaMiamiHoustonNew EnglandBaltimoreArizonaSt. LouisPittsburghWashingtonJacksonvilleClevelandTampa BayBuffaloNew OrleansDenverKansas CityMinnesotaNY JetsOaklandCincinnatiPhiladelphiaSeattleCarolinaSan DiegoDetroitDallasIndianapolisGreen Bay

 
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reg

Mod in training
Great info here, I'd like to see more...

What I look for, and I know I'm not good at it:

DL: Look for teams that allow lots of sacks.

LB: Look for teams with strong running attacks.

SS: Look for teams with really strong running attacks.

FS: Look for teams that throw lots of INTs.

Looking at last year's numbers, these were the teams to start your LBs against, in order. Unfortunately, that's not broken down by MLB/OLB or 3/4 LBs.

Tennessee

San Francisco

Seattle

...
I am not making fun, but this just looked funny.
 

Tick

Footballguy
Great info here, I'd like to see more...

What I look for, and I know I'm not good at it:

DL: Look for teams that allow lots of sacks.

LB: Look for teams with strong running attacks.

SS: Look for teams with really strong running attacks.

FS: Look for teams that throw lots of INTs.

Looking at last year's numbers, these were the teams to start your LBs against, in order.  Unfortunately, that's not broken down by MLB/OLB or 3/4 LBs.

Tennessee

San Francisco

Seattle

...
I am not making fun, but this just looked funny.
Yeah, I noticed right away that what I look for at LB is wrong. However, I don't know how this changes for MLBs, which is mostly what I've got.What's something better to look for in an opponent when you're trying to decide between two fairly equal MLBs?

 

No. 16

Footballguy
This is some good info here. Let's keep it coming!Also... how do you guys factor in the premier tackles? Are they supposed to be avoided?

 
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This is some good info here. Let's keep it coming!

Also... how do you guys factor in the premier tackles? Are they supposed to be avoided?
If you mean guys like Walter Jones, Orlando Pace, Jonathan Ogden?Yeah - never start a DE going against those guys.

How's that for insightful? :excited:

 

redman

Footballguy
Yeah, I noticed right away that what I look for at LB is wrong. However, I don't know how this changes for MLBs, which is mostly what I've got.

What's something better to look for in an opponent when you're trying to decide between two fairly equal MLBs?
Obviously you want the MLB who is on the field for 3rd downs if they both aren't such guys. I'd also look to see whether that MLB is the best LB on his team; if so, his scheme will likely attempt to funnel traffic his way.

Also, which MLB has the best DT's in front of him to keep blockers off of him so that he's free to make plays.

If the MLB is facing a backfield and/or TE that catch a lot of passes, that may give them some extra tackles and maybe even a chance at an INT.

Those are the things that occur to me.

 

dgreen

Footballguy
Great info here, I'd like to see more...

What I look for, and I know I'm not good at it:

DL: Look for teams that allow lots of sacks.

LB: Look for teams with strong running attacks.

SS: Look for teams with really strong running attacks.

FS: Look for teams that throw lots of INTs.

Looking at last year's numbers, these were the teams to start your LBs against, in order. Unfortunately, that's not broken down by MLB/OLB or 3/4 LBs.

Tennessee

San Francisco

Seattle

...
I am not making fun, but this just looked funny.
A lot of TE and RB receptions contribute to this?Looks like TE and RB had about 56% of SF's receptions in 2004. Without running numbers for the entire league, that seems kind of high.

 

dnurk

Footballguy
A few years ago I actually went through every week and dumped the stats from NFL.com into a spreadsheet. Each week I had the top 5 tackle totals against (how many tackles a particular team gave up) and to what position. That is super time consuming and I have not done it since.Given that, I THINK that is basically what the SOS for defensive players is based on that the FBG premium stuff includes. Maybe someone on the staff that reads this can confirm/deny that.The key to what I did was using the current year stats....not the previous years stats. Defenses change so much that you can pretty much throw out last year's stats.

 

blake

Footballguy
I'm very much an IDP rookie as well, and in all fairness, this thread should be pinned. Some great information here.

 

Tick

Footballguy
Yeah, I noticed right away that what I look for at LB is wrong.  However, I don't know how this changes for MLBs, which is mostly what I've got.

What's something better to look for in an opponent when you're trying to decide between two fairly equal MLBs?
Obviously you want the MLB who is on the field for 3rd downs if they both aren't such guys. I'd also look to see whether that MLB is the best LB on his team; if so, his scheme will likely attempt to funnel traffic his way.

Also, which MLB has the best DT's in front of him to keep blockers off of him so that he's free to make plays.

If the MLB is facing a backfield and/or TE that catch a lot of passes, that may give them some extra tackles and maybe even a chance at an INT.

Those are the things that occur to me.
Those are good things to look for, but all except the last one are based on the player in question, not the matchup. That's where I have troubles. The TE bit is a good one, though - I hadn't thought of that.
 

Sidewinder16

Footballguy
Yeah, I noticed right away that what I look for at LB is wrong. However, I don't know how this changes for MLBs, which is mostly what I've got.

What's something better to look for in an opponent when you're trying to decide between two fairly equal MLBs?
Obviously you want the MLB who is on the field for 3rd downs if they both aren't such guys. I'd also look to see whether that MLB is the best LB on his team; if so, his scheme will likely attempt to funnel traffic his way.

Also, which MLB has the best DT's in front of him to keep blockers off of him so that he's free to make plays.

If the MLB is facing a backfield and/or TE that catch a lot of passes, that may give them some extra tackles and maybe even a chance at an INT.

Those are the things that occur to me.
Those are good things to look for, but all except the last one are based on the player in question, not the matchup. That's where I have troubles. The TE bit is a good one, though - I hadn't thought of that.
But doesn't the SLB generally have TE coverage? I would think a SLB or SS going against a Gonzo/Gates would be a good play.Which LB would be most likely to have RB coverage for a pass-catching RB?

 

redman

Footballguy
Yeah, I noticed right away that what I look for at LB is wrong.  However, I don't know how this changes for MLBs, which is mostly what I've got.

What's something better to look for in an opponent when you're trying to decide between two fairly equal MLBs?
Obviously you want the MLB who is on the field for 3rd downs if they both aren't such guys. I'd also look to see whether that MLB is the best LB on his team; if so, his scheme will likely attempt to funnel traffic his way.

Also, which MLB has the best DT's in front of him to keep blockers off of him so that he's free to make plays.

If the MLB is facing a backfield and/or TE that catch a lot of passes, that may give them some extra tackles and maybe even a chance at an INT.

Those are the things that occur to me.
Those are good things to look for, but all except the last one are based on the player in question, not the matchup. That's where I have troubles. The TE bit is a good one, though - I hadn't thought of that.
But doesn't the SLB generally have TE coverage? I would think a SLB or SS going against a Gonzo/Gates would be a good play.Which LB would be most likely to have RB coverage for a pass-catching RB?
Don't think in absolutes. I'm not saying the MLB covers them. I'm just saying that their additional receptions mean more opportunities for the MLB to make plays given that their routes often tend to be shallow and/or over the middle. My impression is that most MLB INT's come from passes to offensive players that other guys are covering, where the QB simply overlooks/doesn't see the MLB and throws it to him; they also often occur on tipped passes over the middle (Lemar Marshall had one on Sunday).

 

homer jay

Footballguy
hey,i am kinda new to this forum, but i have played in IDP rules for a number of years with some pretty good success.here is my 'magic formula'1- Go to depth chart and find players who have starting jobs at historically strong fantasy positions like MLB or WLB in a 4-3 or ILB in 3-4, SS, LDE, and to lesser extents FS and RDE.When you find these players, do some research on them to see if they are secure in starting job, what they did last year if they started, what the guy (or guys) before them did. 2- Remember that you are drafting based on a projection of what will happen THIS season: It’s like those commercials for the gold coins, past performances is not always an indicator of future earnings. Just because a player ranked in the top 20 at his position last season does not mean he will again. Has he had a position switch or has his team had an scheme change? Does he have age or injury concerns? Has the player moved to a new team where his role has change?3- Instead of settling for known mediocrity, draft for 'upside'- DB Joe Bleaux has finished ranked between 30-45 for the last two seasons. He scores a few points below the league average and you need a third-DB. His track record says that he will consistently score below average. Let that player pass, and find a first-year starter at SS who might be flying under the radar. Someone who won a job late in camp who is in a position where others may have had success before. 4- Know the player’s position within the team’s defensive system: Look, Fullbacks are Running Backs, but with EXTREMELY rare exception you would not draft one with the idea of starting him at RB. Why? Because you know that it’s not the job of Fullbacks to do things that pile up fantasy statistics for themselves. Sure, every now and then one will, out of the blue score 3 TD ala Fred Beasley a few years back, but that’s rare and not something you can project. While this seems logical to everyone, some teams STILL draft players who play OLB positions in a 3-4, the SLB spot in a 4-3 or non-RCT CB and expect them to produce. Sure, occasionally that OLB will have three sacks in a game, but for the weeks when he has one or none he is a below average player. Ditto for the standout cover corner who, when they do test him, makes an INT and runs it back for a TD. Are three huge games a season worth 10 duds?5- Focus on players at LB and DB who excel in TACKLES rather than less predictable stats (INTs and Sacks): Along the lines of what is above, find players who consistently put up strong tackle numbers. Those are much easier to project than things like Sacks and INTs. The one exception to this is defensive lineman, where a sack performer can overcome low tackle numbers due to the low position average6- Rookie Corner Theory: The job of a corner back is to cover WR and prevent pass completions. With Rookie Corners, as well as first year starters or players who play opposite stud corners, you can sometimes find players who are ‘picked on’ by opposing offenses and have high tackle numbers. These are GREAT short-term fillers, if used as such. In general though, if a guy has high tackle numbers, its cause he can’t cover. Guys either learn to cover, or lose their job. There are a few exceptions to this rule, where the team’s defensive scheme puts a corner in run support from time to time, but these are few and far between. Also, don’t draft a corner hoping for great ‘passes defensed’ numbers. The NFL leader the last few years has had right around 20, or one per game. A PD counts the same as a tackle in my league.7- A good situation is often better than talent: This is pretty much a repeat of 4, but it bears repeating. If you put an average player at a high scoring position on a team whose defense is on the field often, he is more likely to put up big statistics than a highly talented player at a typically lower scoring position or on a good team. Just because a player is an All-Pro on defense does not mean he will be a consistently strong fantasy player. On the other hand, a guy may barely win a starting job, but be a fantasy star cause he piles on the tackles.8- Know the league’s scoring system: Again, this can relate to some of the above suggestions, but what I specifically mean here is when reading outside sites, do not be mislead by their recommendations when they may not be suited to our league. The mainstream fantasy football world (places like ESPN, Sporting News, etc) seem to cater to IDP leagues that start a few players and look at sacks and INTs rather than tackles. Now, if they say “has good value in tackle leagues” that’s my league!9- Your STUDS are guys who have high tackle numbers who are also playmakers.

 

homer jay

Footballguy
i'll add this....sometimes weekly matchups come into play, but for the most part i think you play your best players weekly.

 

ZzZ

Footballguy
This may surprise some but there is a significant correlation between phisically WHERE (ie what stadium) the MLB plays each week and how many fantasy points a solid MLB will get for the week (for leagues that award points for assisted tackles -- especially for those that score assisted tackles the same as unassisted tackles).

Huh? You may ask. Since assisted tackles are an "unofficial" stat of the NFL, each stadium scorekeeper has a wildly different criteria for attributing assisted tackles than others. Take for instance in Miami -- they will give an assist to anyone who is laying on the ground after the ball carrier has been tackled (hence, Z.Thomas' massive amounts of assists). Again, it is a significant difference that contributes greatly to the scoring of a solid MLB.

I don't have the stats here so maybe someone can check it out. WHERE your MLB plays from week to week may be more important than who he plays for or what team he plays against.

Z

 

Rushmore

Footballguy
This may surprise some but there is a significant correlation between phisically WHERE (ie what stadium) the MLB plays each week and how many fantasy points a solid MLB will get for the week (for leagues that award points for assisted tackles -- especially for those that score assisted tackles the same as unassisted tackles).

Huh? You may ask. Since assisted tackles are an "unofficial" stat of the NFL, each stadium scorekeeper has a wildly different criteria for attributing assisted tackles than others. Take for instance in Miami -- they will give an assist to anyone who is laying on the ground after the ball carrier has been tackled (hence, Z.Thomas' massive amounts of assists). Again, it is a significant difference that contributes greatly to the scoring of a solid MLB.

I don't have the stats here so maybe someone can check it out. WHERE your MLB plays from week to week may be more important than who he plays for or what team he plays against.

Z
Good info here, regarding assisted tackles. On the contrary to Miami who awards asst tackles like welfare, the Rams seem to skimp on them pretty badly.
 

Tick

Footballguy
I'd love to see FBG run the numbers on this and see what cities give out the highest numbers.

 

homer jay

Footballguy
i have actually worked on college and pro stat crews (arena ball, but hey, it was pro) and can tell you that tackles are an EXTREMELY subjective stat, as are assist. i have even seen some crews (i don't believe the NFL does this) that was award a tackle for the primary hit, and then might award an assist (certain software would let you do this) while others would count only as an assist if two players got some credit. also some clubs will credit a player with forcing a guy out of bounds, etc.i echo the sentiment that certain NFL clubs stat crews tend to be more liberal with awarding tackles (the falcons of old come to mind) while others are more stingy with tackles and assists.course, i say that from players on those teams, having liberal stat crews are usually reflected in total statistics.

 

homer jay

Footballguy
i have actually worked on college and pro stat crews (arena ball, but hey, it was pro) and can tell you that tackles are an EXTREMELY subjective stat, as are assist. i have even seen some crews (i don't believe the NFL does this) that was award a tackle for the primary hit, and then might award an assist (certain software would let you do this) while others would count only as an assist if two players got some credit. also some clubs will credit a player with forcing a guy out of bounds, etc.i echo the sentiment that certain NFL clubs stat crews tend to be more liberal with awarding tackles (the falcons of old come to mind) while others are more stingy with tackles and assists.course, i say that from players on those teams, having liberal stat crews are usually reflected in total statistics.

 

ZzZ

Footballguy
Agree w/Tick -- with the FBG's recent emphasis on the defensive side of FF, I am surprised this data (assisted tackles by city) hasn't been churned and analyzed by them already. Like I said, I did it once manually and the results were shocking.Z

 
F

FightingWombat

Guest
I'll add another IDP tip although it doesn't really answer the question. When drafting, select only the bare minimum of DBs and focus on safetys or the few premier TACKLE CBs. Once the season starts, a few CBs that no one drafted will put up huge numbers. Grab 1 or 2 off the wire to fill out your DBs. Henry (DAL) is someone I targeted after week one. Last year it was Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard. Terrance McGee was also available in many of my leagues last year. Also, IDPs on teams with a crappy offense should not be overlooked. When the Browns came back into the league, I drafted Browns MLB Jamir Miller. While he wasn't the most talented LB, I knew he would be on the field for 40-45 minutes a game becasue the Browns O would be weak. He put up some huge tackle numbers and had an occasional sack. If the guy has some talent, take him late in a draft and he could pan out big time.

 

redman

Footballguy
I'll add another IDP tip although it doesn't really answer the question. When drafting, select only the bare minimum of DBs and focus on safetys or the few premier TACKLE CBs. Once the season starts, a few CBs that no one drafted will put up huge numbers. Grab 1 or 2 off the wire to fill out your DBs. Henry (DAL) is someone I targeted after week one. Last year it was Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard. Terrance McGee was also available in many of my leagues last year.

Also, IDPs on teams with a crappy offense should not be overlooked. When the Browns came back into the league, I drafted Browns MLB Jamir Miller. While he wasn't the most talented LB, I knew he would be on the field for 40-45 minutes a game becasue the Browns O would be weak. He put up some huge tackle numbers and had an occasional sack. If the guy has some talent, take him late in a draft and he could pan out big time.
:goodposting:
 

The Carnage

Footballguy
This may surprise some but there is a significant correlation between phisically WHERE (ie what stadium) the MLB plays each week and how many fantasy points a solid MLB will get for the week (for leagues that award points for assisted tackles -- especially for those that score assisted tackles the same as unassisted tackles).
Here is the old thread on assists. In it there is a post of % of plays that received an assist in each city.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=118888
 
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