So who is breaking out in 2013? (1 Viewer)

[RnR]

Moore is high risk/high reward. I picked him at SP#18 in Cakeleeg. Halladay, CC, Shields and Dickey were the two pitchers before and after. I'd prefer Moore out of those five guys every time.

If CC is 100%, I'd think you have to defer to his stability, but that's just me.

Yeah, CC has been a horse in the past. I'm willing to take on more risk with SP because they're easier to replace and use situationally

I'm quite bullish on Moore this year and would not consider any of the other 4 SP's mentioned over him. I'd be happy with Moore as my #2 SP, and would be elated with him as my #3.

Always interesting to see the varying opinions. I suppose in a low $$ re-draft, there's no reason to be scared of rolling the dice on a guy like Moore over a Sabathia or a Dickey.

Or I'm interested in stats from 2013 instead of 2012.

Earth-shattering take on fantasy sports. You mean we're drafting for stats that haven't been recorded yet? This changes everything.

Don't make me go look this up, just own up to it if true: Were you one of the shmucks I was arguing with last spring that were drafting Hosmer and Lawrie in the 2nd and 3rd round while lecturing me about forward views of fantasy players?

No, although I am very schmucky. I chose very poorly last year. Kept Justin Upton as a 5th rounder, drafted Longoria in the 1st and Teixeira in the 2nd. :X I didn't end up with either Hosmer or Lawrie last year, but I'd take them both this year because their ADP's are much more manageable.I don't have anything against veterans and many times pick them over the "it" guys, but I honestly believe due to age, circumstances, and ability that Moore will be the best of those 3 in 2013.

I don't think you're necessarily wrong on Moore. I see the breakout potential. He is oozing with it.My only observation was that it is easier to make that call in a 12-team, $100 league than it is in a 15-team $1500 league. The value of "done it before" goes up considerably in the latter scenario.

Risk/reward doesn't change significantly based on league fees. League size is a more complicated matter. On the one hand, you have to beat more teams so you need to take on more (calculated) risk. On the downside, the quality of replacement players is reduced so busts can be more catastrophic.

You're right on the league size issue.As for the league fee issue, I can tell you from first-hand experience there is a psychological difference when you're on the clock for 60 seconds and that type of money is at stake. If you're the kind of guy that trusts his rankings no matter what, you'll probably be fine with taking Moore and moving on. If you're the kind of guy that goes with tiers and never marries a player, you'll be surprised how much the "Do I really want to potentially blow my entry on this guy?" factors into the equation in a short time-window for selection.

Picking the right spots to take chances while at the same time working to mitigate risks is the biggest challenge to leagues like the NFBC. I think the league-size, entry fee, and level of competition all play into that to a certain extent.

 

[E-Z Glider]

What makes Goldschmidt worth 40 more spots than Rizzo?

Because Matthew Berry loves him?

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks (Going in the eighth, I'd pull the trigger in the fifth): I believe it all. The decreased strikeout rate, the increased contact rate, the improvement against lefties, the walk rate, the double-digit steals. I believe, during the offseason, he saved 40 children from a runaway school bus using only three toothpicks and fishing wire. I believe they found Osama bin Laden based on intel he provided. I believe his DNA will someday be used to cure cancer. I believe it all.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Moore is high risk/high reward. I picked him at SP#18 in Cakeleeg. Halladay, CC, Shields and Dickey were the two pitchers before and after. I'd prefer Moore out of those five guys every time.

If CC is 100%, I'd think you have to defer to his stability, but that's just me.

Yeah, CC has been a horse in the past. I'm willing to take on more risk with SP because they're easier to replace and use situationally

I'm quite bullish on Moore this year and would not consider any of the other 4 SP's mentioned over him. I'd be happy with Moore as my #2 SP, and would be elated with him as my #3.

Always interesting to see the varying opinions. I suppose in a low $$ re-draft, there's no reason to be scared of rolling the dice on a guy like Moore over a Sabathia or a Dickey.

Or I'm interested in stats from 2013 instead of 2012.

Earth-shattering take on fantasy sports. You mean we're drafting for stats that haven't been recorded yet? This changes everything.

Don't make me go look this up, just own up to it if true: Were you one of the shmucks I was arguing with last spring that were drafting Hosmer and Lawrie in the 2nd and 3rd round while lecturing me about forward views of fantasy players?

No, although I am very schmucky. I chose very poorly last year. Kept Justin Upton as a 5th rounder, drafted Longoria in the 1st and Teixeira in the 2nd. :X I didn't end up with either Hosmer or Lawrie last year, but I'd take them both this year because their ADP's are much more manageable.I don't have anything against veterans and many times pick them over the "it" guys, but I honestly believe due to age, circumstances, and ability that Moore will be the best of those 3 in 2013.

I don't think you're necessarily wrong on Moore. I see the breakout potential. He is oozing with it.My only observation was that it is easier to make that call in a 12-team, $100 league than it is in a 15-team $1500 league. The value of "done it before" goes up considerably in the latter scenario.

Risk/reward doesn't change significantly based on league fees. League size is a more complicated matter. On the one hand, you have to beat more teams so you need to take on more (calculated) risk. On the downside, the quality of replacement players is reduced so busts can be more catastrophic.

Unless you're playing in $1500 leagues you can't afford and therefore you panic.

 

[RnR]

Unless you're playing in $1500 leagues you can't afford and therefore you panic.

What exactly are you insinuating? Same rule applies to poker nerds that say that you should shove on a close call if the numbers are right whether it is a $10 turbo or the WSOP main event. That's nice in theory to act like the buy-in level doesn't impact the decision, but that's just not real life.

 

[guru_007]

Unless you're playing in $1500 leagues you can't afford and therefore you panic.

What exactly are you insinuating? Same rule applies to poker nerds that say that you should shove on a close call if the numbers are right whether it is a $10 turbo or the WSOP main event. That's nice in theory to act like the buy-in level doesn't impact the decision, but that's just not real life.

That's the way you need to play Once the money has been paid, you need to forget about how much is on the line and draft like you normally would. If you're panicking, you're not drafting optimally.

 

[RnR]

Unless you're playing in $1500 leagues you can't afford and therefore you panic.

What exactly are you insinuating? Same rule applies to poker nerds that say that you should shove on a close call if the numbers are right whether it is a $10 turbo or the WSOP main event. That's nice in theory to act like the buy-in level doesn't impact the decision, but that's just not real life.

That's the way you need to play Once the money has been paid, you need to forget about how much is on the line and draft like you normally would. If you're panicking, you're not drafting optimally.

I understand, and I actually agree. I'm just saying that's hardly a real-life scenario. Always easy to sit back and talk about how things should happen the same way, when in reality there are human elements involved that don't always allow that to happen.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Unless you're playing in $1500 leagues you can't afford and therefore you panic.

What exactly are you insinuating? Same rule applies to poker nerds that say that you should shove on a close call if the numbers are right whether it is a $10 turbo or the WSOP main event. That's nice in theory to act like the buy-in level doesn't impact the decision, but that's just not real life.

That's the way you need to play Once the money has been paid, you need to forget about how much is on the line and draft like you normally would. If you're panicking, you're not drafting optimally.

I understand, and I actually agree. I'm just saying that's hardly a real-life scenario. Always easy to sit back and talk about how things should happen the same way, when in reality there are human elements involved that don't always allow that to happen.

Puckered ######

 

[RnR]

Unless you're playing in $1500 leagues you can't afford and therefore you panic.

What exactly are you insinuating? Same rule applies to poker nerds that say that you should shove on a close call if the numbers are right whether it is a $10 turbo or the WSOP main event. That's nice in theory to act like the buy-in level doesn't impact the decision, but that's just not real life.

That's the way you need to play Once the money has been paid, you need to forget about how much is on the line and draft like you normally would. If you're panicking, you're not drafting optimally.

I understand, and I actually agree. I'm just saying that's hardly a real-life scenario. Always easy to sit back and talk about how things should happen the same way, when in reality there are human elements involved that don't always allow that to happen.

Puckered ######

 

[The Flying Elvis]

Jedd Gyorko... .270 20 HRS 70 RBIS reasonable for a full season?

 

[dparker713]

Jedd Gyorko... .270 20 HRS 70 RBIS reasonable for a full season?

That's probably high on all three. Possible, but not particularly probable.

 

[rascal]

Julio just went 6 scoreless innings and fanned 10. Granted it was against the Astros a AAA team.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

What about our guy Brandon Belt?

 

[Billy Bats]

Dom Brown

.397 with 6 home runs and a new swing. Big question will be whether he is an everyday guy but Delmon Young will be injured and Ruf will probably open in AAA. Has 21 at bats versus lefties, only 1 home run but is hitting .381. Probably overreacting a bit to preseason numbers but he should at least start the season off hot.

His batting stance in 2010 -vs- now. Pretty drastic change.

Wow I knew his stance changed but to see it side by side is extreme. He's been working with Wally Joyner, I'm assuming that can only be a very good thing.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Talk to me about - Viciedo and Profar

In an 8 team keeper league so stashed these two on my farm. Don't know much about either other than they were available - and could fill a long term need as my OF and MI are aging. Are they good ones to hold onto? Would Taveras from StL be a better OF prospect than Viciedo?

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Talk to me about - Viciedo and ProfarIn an 8 team keeper league so stashed these two on my farm. Don't know much about either other than they were available - and could fill a long term need as my OF and MI are aging. Are they good ones to hold onto? Would Taveras from StL be a better OF prospect than Viciedo?

The only better hitting prospect than Taveras is Profar.

 

[MAC_32]

Talk to me about - Viciedo and ProfarIn an 8 team keeper league so stashed these two on my farm. Don't know much about either other than they were available - and could fill a long term need as my OF and MI are aging. Are they good ones to hold onto? Would Taveras from StL be a better OF prospect than Viciedo?

I trend more towards this year vs next year regardless, but especially in an 8 team league. Use bench spots on 2013 difference maker's. Keeping jurk around for at least a few weeks may make sense, not sure, but Viciedo? Nah.

 

[dparker713]

Talk to me about - Viciedo and ProfarIn an 8 team keeper league so stashed these two on my farm. Don't know much about either other than they were available - and could fill a long term need as my OF and MI are aging. Are they good ones to hold onto? Would Taveras from StL be a better OF prospect than Viciedo?

The only better hitting prospect than Taveras is Profar.

As a pure hitter, its Taveras and its not close. Profar gets more love because he's supposed to be an above average SS. Meanwhile Taveras is projected at a corner OF spot and he STILL is the 2nd prospect on most lists.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Thanks for the input - I will swap out Viciedo for Taveras for the farm unless someone beats me to it. Thanks.

 

[Billy Bats]

Maybe a bit too soon, but I like Moustakas to take the next step.

Mous hitting a lusty .455 with 4hrs and 12 rbis this spring.

 

[shadyridr]

Any chance bryce becomes top 5 pick next year

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Any chance bryce becomes top 5 pick next year

I think there is a chance. He's so young though, might not be a top ten guy overnight but he certainly has the ability to be. Once he gets into his prime years he's going to be a beast.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

TITY for V Wells!!!

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Any chance bryce becomes top 5 pick next year

Got him for $30 this weekend and was thrilled. I think he very easily becomes a perennial $40+/1st round guy.

 

[cosjobs]

Any chance bryce becomes top 5 pick next year

Got him for $30 this weekend and was thrilled. I think he very easily becomes a perennial $40+/1st round guy.

I think he'll outperform Trout this year.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Any chance bryce becomes top 5 pick next year

Got him for $30 this weekend and was thrilled. I think he very easily becomes a perennial $40+/1st round guy.

I think he'll outperform Trout this year.

30-30 certainly possible, right? If so, that puts him in the Cutchzone at least.

 

[Grahamburn]

What's the consensus on Matt Moore? Does he need one more year to breakout or is he there now? He looked to turn it on towards the end of last season. I think he ends up top 15 SP and could push top 10 if lucky. If I have a choice between say Latos or Moore, I might lean Moore. Scherzer or Moore? That's tough for me.

Moore still seems to be walking the world this spring. I can't really see him breaking out too much unless he gets that corrected.

His command was much better in his last outing

6 hits and 5 more freebies in 4.2 innings last night. Cause for concern? I drafted him too. Hoping this doesn't linger too long. Confidence problem, imo.

 

[Don Quixote]

Any chance bryce becomes top 5 pick next year

I think so. He's been unreal this spring. Currently hitting .476, including 9 hits in a row. While it's "just spring", he definitely looks poised to take a big step up this year.

 

[E-Z Glider]

Fernando Martinez, OF, Astros

 

[scrumptrulescent]

What's the consensus on Matt Moore? Does he need one more year to breakout or is he there now? He looked to turn it on towards the end of last season. I think he ends up top 15 SP and could push top 10 if lucky. If I have a choice between say Latos or Moore, I might lean Moore. Scherzer or Moore? That's tough for me.

Moore still seems to be walking the world this spring. I can't really see him breaking out too much unless he gets that corrected.

His command was much better in his last outing

6 hits and 5 more freebies in 4.2 innings last night. Cause for concern? I drafted him too. Hoping this doesn't linger too long. Confidence problem, imo.

Drafted him last night. Hope he figures it out.....quickly.

 

[Billy Bats]

Michael Morse with his 9th home run in 54 spring at bats.

 

[Eephus]

Michael Morse with his 9th home run in 54 spring at bats.

Anybody think he'll hit 9 in his first 54 regular season games.

 

[shadyridr]

Michael Morse with his 9th home run in 54 spring at bats.

Unfortunately they play their home games at Safeco (yes I know they moved the fences in but still).

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Any chance bryce becomes top 5 pick next year

Got him for $30 this weekend and was thrilled. I think he very easily becomes a perennial $40+/1st round guy.

I think he'll outperform Trout this year.

30-30 certainly possible, right? If so, that puts him in the Cutchzone at least.

That's a clown comparison, bro.

 

[shadyridr]

Michael Morse with his 9th home run in 54 spring at bats.

Anybody think he'll hit 9 in his first 54 regular season games.

a third of the way there thru 5 games

 

[Billy Bats]

Michael Morse with his 9th home run in 54 spring at bats.

Anybody think he'll hit 9 in his first 54 regular season games.

a third of the way there thru 5 games

Beast mode.

 

[sporthenry]

Dom Brown

Follows up being named NL Player of the Week (.349, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 2 homeruns) with a 2 home run game to bring his total to 13 (2nd in NL with CarGon) and 32 RBIs good for 12 in the NL.

 

[RaveOriole]

... Also Chris Davis from the Orioles should have a break out year and being at 1B he'll go late after all the big names at that position.

Ummmm ... Nailed It!!!!

 

[Limp Ditka]

... Also Chris Davis from the Orioles should have a break out year and being at 1B he'll go late after all the big names at that position.

Ummmm ... Nailed It!!!!

That's cute

Yes, it is the year for Chris Davis to finally break out. He won't be a superstar, but he will be servicable. I see a slash around .275 / .325 / .475. around 25 HR and 95 RBI

 

[shadyridr]

... Also Chris Davis from the Orioles should have a break out year and being at 1B he'll go late after all the big names at that position.

Ummmm ... Nailed It!!!!

That's cute

Yes, it is the year for Chris Davis to finally break out. He won't be a superstar, but he will be servicable. I see a slash around .275 / .325 / .475. around 25 HR and 95 RBI

was your projection for the first half?

 

[Limp Ditka]

... Also Chris Davis from the Orioles should have a break out year and being at 1B he'll go late after all the big names at that position.

Ummmm ... Nailed It!!!!

That's cute

Yes, it is the year for Chris Davis to finally break out. He won't be a superstar, but he will be servicable. I see a slash around .275 / .325 / .475. around 25 HR and 95 RBI

was your projection for the first half?

Didn't make a projection on him here this year. That was last year. Certainly wouldn't have projected him to be on the pace though

 

[shadyridr]

... Also Chris Davis from the Orioles should have a break out year and being at 1B he'll go late after all the big names at that position.

Ummmm ... Nailed It!!!!

That's cute

Yes, it is the year for Chris Davis to finally break out. He won't be a superstar, but he will be servicable. I see a slash around .275 / .325 / .475. around 25 HR and 95 RBI

was your projection for the first half?

Didn't make a projection on him here this year. That was last year. Certainly wouldn't have projected him to be on the pace though

doh missed that

 

[Limp Ditka]

... Also Chris Davis from the Orioles should have a break out year and being at 1B he'll go late after all the big names at that position.

Ummmm ... Nailed It!!!!

That's cute

Yes, it is the year for Chris Davis to finally break out. He won't be a superstar, but he will be servicable. I see a slash around .275 / .325 / .475. around 25 HR and 95 RBI

was your projection for the first half?

Didn't make a projection on him here this year. That was last year. Certainly wouldn't have projected him to be on the pace though

doh missed that

you?

 

[shadyridr]

... Also Chris Davis from the Orioles should have a break out year and being at 1B he'll go late after all the big names at that position.

Ummmm ... Nailed It!!!!

That's cute

Yes, it is the year for Chris Davis to finally break out. He won't be a superstar, but he will be servicable. I see a slash around .275 / .325 / .475. around 25 HR and 95 RBI

was your projection for the first half?

Didn't make a projection on him here this year. That was last year. Certainly wouldn't have projected him to be on the pace though

doh missed that

you?

I look at dates on posts like I look at HOF plaques.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I look at dates on posts like I look at HOF plaques.

 

[SoCalBroncoFan]

I have a hard time believing that there are more home runs than steals.

Quite a bit more. Not only that, but typically higher stolen base category guys only two, sometimes three categories, while a higher home run hitter usually fills three and sometimes four or five categories putting even that much more of a premium on picking up steals where you can.

interesting. maybe i thought steals were more plentiful since they are so easy to pick up during the season. always some dude that does nothing but steal.

There usually are speed guys who can be found as free agents during the season. Last year's examples were Revere, Campana and Everth Cabrera. You're much less likely to pick up a top 30 power hitter for nothing. The downside of cheap speed guys is they're generally one or two category contributors. To get back to Goldschmidt, I wonder if he's being overrated due to his SBs. He had 18 SB and only 3 CS in 2012 which is excellent. But that's double his professional career high. He's big and not very fast. It wouldn't surprise me at all if 2012 was a small sample aberration and he falls back to <10 SB this season.

Yep. All of this. Goldy reminds me a lot of Mark Reynolds after his weird SB year. I think you can expect more than Rizzo, but less than last year. In the end, if you don't have an elite 1B (or Gonzalez) you're playing with some element of fire. The guys in the 50-100 range have upside but steep floors too, the later vets don't have as much upside but I don't think their risk is near as great. This is why I have Prince and Pujols in my leagues, I don't want to worry about it.

I am firmly in the Goldschmidt camp. I play in a dynasty league and have owned him since 2010. If you take into account just his major league stats, he is stealing a base at about once every 9 games. Granted that is only 193 games into his career, but that is not a terribly small sample size. In 2011, in AA, he had 9 SB in 103 games. Not too far off his MLB pace. Now, on the power side, while his 20 HRs last year are not elite level, his 43 2B last year are. Young hitters typically turn some of those doubles into HRs as they get older and a high number of doubles is a good indicator of future power growth. Here are his minor league break downs by year and level: 2009 Rookie League 74 games, 27 2B, 18 HR, .408 OBP 2010 High-A 138 games, 42 2B, 35 HR, .384 OBP 2011 Double-A 103 games, 21 2B, 30 HR, .435 OBP SO he has hit for power at every level, and while he strikes out quite a bit, he also has a pretty good eye. He led his league in pitches per at-bat in both 2009 and 2010 and was 4th in 2011. In 2012 he was 34th in all of MLB in pitches per at-bat, so he has a discerning eye and isnt just a masher swinging for the fences every pitch. When you look at his home park, Chase Field, it is one of the best parks for HR in MLB. I think when you take all of that into account he is a young player who has a chance to surprise people and make a big leap in performance, and when we are drafting our teams that is the type of player you target to get an advantage over your competition.

Cool beans for you if you already own him in a Dynasty League. Goldschmidt's NFBC ADP of 46 (sixth 1B off the board) sounds about in the right neighborhood as well. But if you're drinking the Gold Kool Aid like the guy at Razzball (#19 overall), I'm not with you. His chances of outperforming that draft position are pretty low and the risks of his underperforming are too high. 1B isn't as deep as it's been in previous year but it's still pretty solid. Getting 10-15 SBs from the 1B position isn't worth it.

This is my concern after reading Razzball and the other few guys that have him ranked top 25. To perform up to that he NEEDS to make the leap to like a .275 30-100-15 line. One of my concerns is that I am drafting in a H2H points keeper this Friday and I always tend to get drawn into the young hype guys. I hit sometimes like with Trout and Harper but also drafted Hosmer, Lawrie last year high. Even if I give Goldy a .275, 30-100-15 line with Ks, he is only 40 pts better than say Freeman and is right on par with a Butler or A-Gon. Think I am going to avoid him in these formats but would probably take the risk in roto.

As a hitter I would rank him from 35-40 based on format. That is strictly a hitters ranking. The reason I am high on him and I think others are as well, is the ability to outperform your draft slot. What kills teams is injury and under-performance. I try to find guys with a decent floor and ceiling, but the ability to out-perform that. I feel Goldschmidt fits that mold perfectly. Would I take him 20th? No. Would I be shocked if he was ranked 20th at the end of the year? No.

This guy should be the MVP, but because his team will finish in second in their division he is somehow disqualified.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Sal Perez

Took this guy awhile but he's been the hottest hitter in the bigs the last month. Can we hope for carryover?

 

[the moops]

This guy should be the MVP, but because his team will finish in second in their division he is somehow disqualified.

no