Stallworth... my early projections (1 Viewer)

[KellysHeroes]

Heres how I figured...

I figured that Brady's avg from the past 3 yrs is 320 comp / 3700 yds / 26 TDs.

Then I took Branch's 2005 #s (the only yr that Brady really had a #1 WR) and divided them too those avgs.

In 2005 Branch equaled 23.4% of Bradys Comp / 22.5% of yds / 19.2% of TDs.

When I took those %s and applied them to Brady's 3 yr avg; I recieved 75 recs / 840 yds / 5 TDs.

Now theres a lot of factors that you could throw in that could change these numbers (Stallworth > Branch, Branch > Stallworth, Diff OC from 2005, totally diff WR core, that was the yr their defense was beat up and Brady needed to pass alot).

But I feel that a 16 game projection of 75 recs / 840 yds / 5 TDs for Stallworth is decent (I would like a higher TD total).

 

[UCSBgerry]

Heres how I figured...I figured that Brady's avg from the past 3 yrs is 320 comp / 3700 yds / 26 TDs.Then I took Branch's 2005 #s (the only yr that Brady really had a #1 WR) and divided them too those avgs.In 2005 Branch equaled 23.4% of Bradys Comp / 22.5% of yds / 19.2% of TDs.When I took those %s and applied them to Brady's 3 yr avg; I recieved 75 recs / 840 yds / 5 TDs.Now theres a lot of factors that you could throw in that could change these numbers (Stallworth > Branch, Branch > Stallworth, Diff OC from 2005, totally diff WR core, that was the yr their defense was beat up and Brady needed to pass alot).But I feel that a 16 game projection of 75 recs / 840 yds / 5 TDs for Stallworth is decent (I would like a higher TD total).

I'd say this looks about right. I would maybe say 65 receptions but add a couple of more TD's.

 

[Romulan]

Heres how I figured...I figured that Brady's avg from the past 3 yrs is 320 comp / 3700 yds / 26 TDs.Then I took Branch's 2005 #s (the only yr that Brady really had a #1 WR) and divided them too those avgs.In 2005 Branch equaled 23.4% of Bradys Comp / 22.5% of yds / 19.2% of TDs.When I took those %s and applied them to Brady's 3 yr avg; I recieved 75 recs / 840 yds / 5 TDs.Now theres a lot of factors that you could throw in that could change these numbers (Stallworth > Branch, Branch > Stallworth, Diff OC from 2005, totally diff WR core, that was the yr their defense was beat up and Brady needed to pass alot).But I feel that a 16 game projection of 75 recs / 840 yds / 5 TDs for Stallworth is decent (I would like a higher TD total).

I say 46 498 yds 2 TD's

 

[ATC1]

I'd say. Hamstring strain in TC.

So, IR

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, 75 receptions and 840 yards don't mix well together. That's too low a ypr. So IMO you need to either reduce the # of receptions or increase the yardage.

 

[LBH]

IMO, 75 receptions and 840 yards don't mix well together. That's too low a ypr. So IMO you need to either reduce the # of receptions or increase the yardage.

Ill say...65 rec 1000yds 7tds if healthy

 

[LHUCKS]

IMO, 75 receptions and 840 yards don't mix well together. That's too low a ypr. So IMO you need to either reduce the # of receptions or increase the yardage.

 

[KellysHeroes]

IMO, 75 receptions and 840 yards don't mix well together. That's too low a ypr. So IMO you need to either reduce the # of receptions or increase the yardage.

I agree.. my projections equal an 11.2 avg per catch.. not Stall's style.I like little big's projections better.. I was trying to use a system to project.

 

[packersfan]

I'd go with something in the range of 60 receptions, 830 receiving yards and 7 TDs at this point in time.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I'd go with something in the range of 60 receptions, 830 receiving yards and 7 TDs at this point in time.

I was just going to post something similar.. That comes to a 14 yd avg.. which was generally his avg in NO.

 

[Boston]

IMO, 75 receptions and 840 yards don't mix well together. That's too low a ypr. So IMO you need to either reduce the # of receptions or increase the yardage.

Absolutely agree. If Stallworth stays healthy for a full 16 and has 75 receptions he will be a potential stud (at least as far as Patriot wideouts are concerned). He will be used on a ton of long stuff and will the opportunity to have solid yardage and TD totals. Overall I don't see him having that many receptions because the Pats spread it around so much and I really don't consider him a possession type of guy. The Pats have been looking for a legit deep threat for what seems like forever same page with Brady he will be in a position to make some pretty big money next offseason whether it's with the Pats or another team.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Now.. isn't he signed for 6 yrs.. from rotoworld

3/11/2007: Signed a six-year, $33.1 million contract. The deal included a $1 million signing bonus. 2007: $700,000 (+ $100,000 per-game roster bonuses + $300,000 workout bonus), 2008: $1 million (+ $6 million option bonus due 2/25 + $2 million roster bonus due 3/1 + $1.6 million playing-time roster bonus + $400,000 workout bonus), 2009: $1 million (+ $2 million option bonus + $400,000 workout bonus + $1.6 million playing-time roster bonus), 2010-2012: $4 million (+ $500,000 workout bonuses), 2013: Free Agent

 

[David Yudkin]

Now.. isn't he signed for 6 yrs.. from rotoworld3/11/2007: Signed a six-year, $33.1 million contract. The deal included a $1 million signing bonus. 2007: $700,000 (+ $100,000 per-game roster bonuses + $300,000 workout bonus), 2008: $1 million (+ $6 million option bonus due 2/25 + $2 million roster bonus due 3/1 + $1.6 million playing-time roster bonus + $400,000 workout bonus), 2009: $1 million (+ $2 million option bonus + $400,000 workout bonus + $1.6 million playing-time roster bonus), 2010-2012: $4 million (+ $500,000 workout bonuses), 2013: Free Agent

Do the math and you will see that he is really only signed for a season. IMO, there is very little chance he gets to keep this deal and stay a Patriot beyond 2007. He'd get $11 million to play in 2008 as it stands now.

 

[Boston]

Now.. isn't he signed for 6 yrs.. from rotoworld3/11/2007: Signed a six-year, $33.1 million contract. The deal included a $1 million signing bonus. 2007: $700,000 (+ $100,000 per-game roster bonuses + $300,000 workout bonus), 2008: $1 million (+ $6 million option bonus due 2/25 + $2 million roster bonus due 3/1 + $1.6 million playing-time roster bonus + $400,000 workout bonus), 2009: $1 million (+ $2 million option bonus + $400,000 workout bonus + $1.6 million playing-time roster bonus), 2010-2012: $4 million (+ $500,000 workout bonuses), 2013: Free Agent

It's basically a one year deal at somewhere in the 3 mil ballpark I believe. After this year the Pats can pick up the option but that's when the big money kicks in so how he plays this year will go along way towards that decision.

 

[KellysHeroes]

ahhhhhh

so he has to perform to get the big money.. I like that better. If he pulls a hammy or something; hes gone.

 

[ImTheScientist]

IMO, 75 receptions and 840 yards don't mix well together. That's too low a ypr. So IMO you need to either reduce the # of receptions or increase the yardage.

By year Stallworths Y/R14.119.413.213.519.1He wont avg 11.2 Y/R .... he is not that type of WR. I would lower his Rec to 50-60 and bump his Y/R up to about 14 ...... and pray he stays healthy all year.

 

[David Yudkin]

ahhhhhhso he has to perform to get the big money.. I like that better. If he pulls a hammy or something; hes gone.

Unless he blows up to Randy Moss in his prime numbers he will not be back for the deal he has now. The Pats simply will not pay him that much $$$. That would be more than Brady gets IIRC.I am no capologist, but since the terms of the contract are not guaranteed, IIRC, they could redo the specifics and still call him under contract for 5 more years. So maybe they would give him the $10 million in bonuses but convert it to a signing bonus and prorate the cap hit over 5 years. And who is to say that they keep the numbers the same. That would be my best guess. But I don't see him getting $11 million to play a single season.

 

[weasel3515]

I'd say those numbers are definitely the ceiling for two reasons. First, Stallworth always gets hurt. Second, and more important to any Patriot WR, they distribute the ball way too much to make any of the receivers valuable fantasy wise.

 

[David Yudkin]

Stallworth always gets hurt.

He's played 85% of the time. That works out to an average of 13.5 games played per season.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Stallworth always gets hurt.

He's played 85% of the time. That works out to an average of 13.5 games played per season.

2004 and 2005; he logged in all 16 games.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Have you ever watched what Stallworth can do with the ball after the catch compared to what Branch did? Stallworth can take a 5 yard dump pass and turn it into a 55 yard TD. Branch wasn't that kind of WR.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

I'll say 59/ 1003/6 if healthy.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Have you ever watched what Stallworth can do with the ball after the catch compared to what Branch did? Stallworth can take a 5 yard dump pass and turn it into a 55 yard TD. Branch wasn't that kind of WR.

Thats why he's my #1 bud.. Like I said.. I used a mathematical formula to get those projections..

 

[gman8343]

Have you ever watched what Stallworth can do with the ball after the catch compared to what Branch did? Stallworth can take a 5 yard dump pass and turn it into a 55 yard TD. Branch wasn't that kind of WR.

Thats why he's my #1 bud.. Like I said.. I used a mathematical formula to get those projections..

 

[KellysHeroes]

Wasn't my first choice; but for what was left in the 7th... not a bad choice

 

[ATC1]

Wasn't my first choice; but for what was left in the 7th... not a bad choice

Starting 3 WRs and only 1 RB, How do you wait until the 7th to take your first WR?Edit: Ok I see the 2 flex, and I'll assume it's non PPR.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Starting 3 WRs and only 1 RB, How do you wait until the 7th to take your first WR?Edit: Ok I see the 2 flex, and I'll assume it's non PPR.

Nope.. 1PPR for WRs & TEs / .5 PPR for RBs.However.. its tackle heavy; 2pt per solo / 1pt assist

 

[ImTheScientist]

Have you ever watched what Stallworth can do with the ball after the catch compared to what Branch did? Stallworth can take a 5 yard dump pass and turn it into a 55 yard TD. Branch wasn't that kind of WR.

Thats why he's my #1 bud.. Like I said.. I used a mathematical formula to get those projections..

Can you share the formula? I would be interested in seeing it.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Have you ever watched what Stallworth can do with the ball after the catch compared to what Branch did? Stallworth can take a 5 yard dump pass and turn it into a 55 yard TD. Branch wasn't that kind of WR.

Thats why he's my #1 bud.. Like I said.. I used a mathematical formula to get those projections..

Can you share the formula? I would be interested in seeing it.

did u read the 1st post??????????

 

[ImTheScientist]

Have you ever watched what Stallworth can do with the ball after the catch compared to what Branch did? Stallworth can take a 5 yard dump pass and turn it into a 55 yard TD. Branch wasn't that kind of WR.

Thats why he's my #1 bud.. Like I said.. I used a mathematical formula to get those projections..

Can you share the formula? I would be interested in seeing it.

did u read the 1st post??????????

I would not feel good about saying that is a "formula" and using it to project player stats. Not that there is a good way, but that is lacking a lot of important details.

 

[PatsFanCT]

Brady has never had a player like Stallworth to throw the ball to, so you can toss the whole "spreading the ball around" theory out the window. Also, with Stallworth's contract the way it is, it would suit him well to have a career season. So that's my "formula", and I say Stallworth is a 1000 yrd - 10 TD receiver this year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Brady has never had a player like Stallworth to throw the ball to, so you can toss the whole "spreading the ball around" theory out the window. Also, with Stallworth's contract the way it is, it would suit him well to have a career season. So that's my "formula", and I say Stallworth is a 1000 yrd - 10 TD receiver this year.

I agree that he's never had someone like Stallworth. However, since 2001 the Pats have had one 1,000 yard receiver (Troy Brown) and only twice had a WR with more than 5 TD (Patten with 7 and Givens with 6).

 

[TD Ryan]

50 - 60 catches

850-ish yards

6 - 9 TDs

 

[redman]

IMO, 75 receptions and 840 yards don't mix well together. That's too low a ypr. So IMO you need to either reduce the # of receptions or increase the yardage.

My first thought as well.