Steve Smith is undervalued (1 Viewer)

[Bills_Fan11]

I'm with OP. All I know is I'm real happy if I get him a full round after Fitzgerald or TJ Housh (which apparantly is a possibility based on some of the mocks I've seen).

 

[Q-Bert]

The last 33 games Delhomme/Smith have played together, Smith has averaged 15.6 FP/G. At what point is that not a fluke?If Smith and Delhomme play 16 games, Smith is a lock for the top 5. If you want to say one of them will be hurt, then sure, I agree Smith won't be top five.

One big problem. Doubling the players that a top-5 finish is depending on increases the chances that it doesn't happen. If every player in the entire NFL has a flat 25% chance of getting injured, then there's a 44% chance that one member of the Smiff/Delhomme combo goes down. And I'd argue that both players, Delhomme especially, are probably a larger injury risk than league average for their position. As a result, while I don't like trying to predict injuries, you have to acknowledge that Smiff is RADICALLY more likely to be derailed by such than his peers. If you think he's capable of top-5 production, you have to discount him for the dramatically increased risk.

Hey I value your opinion, so not being confrontational at all with this question next. Why do you say Smith is more likely to be injured at his position? I would assume it is due to him being injured badly before or playing so hard... But, want to know your response. I always hate knocking a guy just because of one fluke injury. I don't think Smith has had a pattern of injury has he?

He only weighs 185 pounds, he's only played in all 16 games twice in his 7-year career, and he seems to play with a sort of reckless abandon that, while part of what makes him great, also exposes him to a lot more hits. I don't think he's a significant injury risk, but I think he's a more significant injury risk than his peers (his peers being other top-10 fantasy WRs, such as Fitz, Moss, Colston, The Chad, Wayne, and the like).

Larry Fitzgerald - Missed one game last year and two games the year before that. His probable starting quarterback missed most of the season last year with a broken collarbone. His backup quarterback is older than God.Randy Moss - Missed six games in the last four years but was significantly limited in many more in both 2004 and 2006. Marques Colston - Missed two games in 2006.The Chad - Is bat#### crazy.Reggie Wayne - You got me on this one.My point - every player is an injury risk. I don't think Steve Smith is any worse than any other player.

 

[SSOG]

The last 33 games Delhomme/Smith have played together, Smith has averaged 15.6 FP/G. At what point is that not a fluke?If Smith and Delhomme play 16 games, Smith is a lock for the top 5. If you want to say one of them will be hurt, then sure, I agree Smith won't be top five.

One big problem. Doubling the players that a top-5 finish is depending on increases the chances that it doesn't happen. If every player in the entire NFL has a flat 25% chance of getting injured, then there's a 44% chance that one member of the Smiff/Delhomme combo goes down. And I'd argue that both players, Delhomme especially, are probably a larger injury risk than league average for their position. As a result, while I don't like trying to predict injuries, you have to acknowledge that Smiff is RADICALLY more likely to be derailed by such than his peers. If you think he's capable of top-5 production, you have to discount him for the dramatically increased risk.

Hey I value your opinion, so not being confrontational at all with this question next. Why do you say Smith is more likely to be injured at his position? I would assume it is due to him being injured badly before or playing so hard... But, want to know your response. I always hate knocking a guy just because of one fluke injury. I don't think Smith has had a pattern of injury has he?

He only weighs 185 pounds, he's only played in all 16 games twice in his 7-year career, and he seems to play with a sort of reckless abandon that, while part of what makes him great, also exposes him to a lot more hits. I don't think he's a significant injury risk, but I think he's a more significant injury risk than his peers (his peers being other top-10 fantasy WRs, such as Fitz, Moss, Colston, The Chad, Wayne, and the like).

Larry Fitzgerald - Missed one game last year and two games the year before that. His probable starting quarterback missed most of the season last year with a broken collarbone. His backup quarterback is older than God.Randy Moss - Missed six games in the last four years but was significantly limited in many more in both 2004 and 2006. Marques Colston - Missed two games in 2006.The Chad - Is bat#### crazy.Reggie Wayne - You got me on this one.My point - every player is an injury risk. I don't think Steve Smith is any worse than any other player.

Every player is an injury risk. Smiff is more of an injury risk than any of his peers.Fitzgerald weighs FORTY POUNDS more than Smiff, and his style of play doesn't lead to as much contact. Also, his probable starting QB might be an injury risk, but in Fitz's case, that's a POSITIVE. Oh, he's also significantly younger than Smiff, and age increases injury risk.Moss has missed 6 games in his 10 year career. Come on, now. Also, he weighs 30 pounds more than Smiff, and once again, his style of play doesn't lead to as much contact. He's older than Smiff... but he's also the biggest physical freak of nature in the league.Colston is 40 pounds heavier than Smiff, and significantly younger.In his six years since becoming a starter, The Chad has yet to miss a game due to injury. He weighs about the same as Smiff, but again, I don't think his style of play leads to as much contact.In all four cases, I would call the WR in question a lesser injury risk than Steve Smith due to various factors, including injury history, style of play, size, and age. But even if you want to call all four equal risks for injury, then Smiff *STILL* laps the field, because he's far more dependent on his starting QB than any of the four, and his starting QB is a far greater injury risk than any of the other four's.

 

[PSULions]

Just to clarify for everyone, this is the same Delhomme-to-Smith combo that produced this play earlier last season.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpbl5lch3vc

That was one of my favorite plays of alltime. My seats are about the 27 yards line in the upper bowl and that pass, catch and run were simply AWESOME!

 

[Iron_Far]

Panthers CB Ken Lucas' face was bloodied after a Friday morning fight with WR Steve Smith.

Lucas apparently missed the memo: Chuck Norris wears Steve Smith pajamas to bed. This is the same man who put a beating on teammate Anthony Bright back in 2002, so Lucas should have known better. Smith reconciled with Lucas after the fight, and the two briefly exchanged a hug. We'd be afraid not to select Smith in our fantasy drafts later this summer.

:OGangster:

 

[TLEF316]

Panthers CB Ken Lucas' face was bloodied after a Friday morning fight with WR Steve Smith.Lucas apparently missed the memo: Chuck Norris wears Steve Smith pajamas to bed. This is the same man who put a beating on teammate Anthony Bright back in 2002, so Lucas should have known better. Smith reconciled with Lucas after the fight, and the two briefly exchanged a hug. We'd be afraid not to select Smith in our fantasy drafts later this summer. :OGangster:

 

[marcus allen]

Smith is a decent pick in the 3rd, depending on who you already have and who is available.

One guy I like as an undervalued WR is Javon Walker; have to wait on preseason for a final verdict though. For a 10 team league he often goes in the 9th-11th round making him a viable WR4/5, a role he should easily exceed.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Panthers CB Ken Lucas' face was bloodied after a Friday morning fight with WR Steve Smith.Lucas apparently missed the memo: Chuck Norris wears Steve Smith pajamas to bed. This is the same man who put a beating on teammate Anthony Bright back in 2002, so Lucas should have known better. Smith reconciled with Lucas after the fight, and the two briefly exchanged a hug. We'd be afraid not to select Smith in our fantasy drafts later this summer. :OGangster:

 

[The Moz]

pound for pound - kid is the toughest SOB in football. Seriously other than afew lineman I am not sure many folks would tangle with him..

You gotta love that he brings it so fierce - I think the fight means he is ready!

 

[The Moz]

Smith is a decent pick in the 3rd, depending on who you already have and who is available.One guy I like as an undervalued WR is Javon Walker; have to wait on preseason for a final verdict though. For a 10 team league he often goes in the 9th-11th round making him a viable WR4/5, a role he should easily exceed.

If Delhomme and Smith are healthy all season - He is definitley a top 5 WR in 08. R. Moss , Wayne , Edwards, and TO - should be only wrs taken ahead.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Smith is valued right where he should be, and has little upside. When is the last time a WR who has an ADP in the mid-2nd to early 3rd really outplayed his draft position?

That's a ridiculous definition of "upside". According to that definition, the #1 draft pick has absolutely no upside at all, because no player can outperform that position. I mean, you might think that Tomlinson will rush for 2800 yards and 42 TDs, but why bother drafting him- it's not like that presents any upside, after all.A player with "upside" is a player with the potential to single-handedly carry you to a fantasy championship. Randy Moss has that kind of upside. Tom Brady has that kind of upside. Tomlinson, Peterson, and Westbrook have that kind of upside. Steve Smith, as he's demonstrated on the field, belongs in the very exclusive list of players with that kind of upside.

SSOG, You're being ridiculous here. First, yes, its true that the #1 overall can't exceed his draft position, but he can exceed his projections. Anyone else who exceeds their projections will likely exceed his draft position as well. So while his definition of upside whould have been slightly better in comparing actuals vs projections instead of draft position, it is still a pretty good measure. And its a much better definition than someone who can singlehandedly win you a championship. That implies that only superstars have "upside". That is truly one of the most goofy things I've heard here. Look at every sleeper pick you've ever had. Why draft them if not for their upside. If things break their way (supplanting a starter, recovering from injury whatever) they can beat their projections (and yes, their draft position). That's what wins championships.

 

[Bl Deep]

I'll take a guy who put up monster numbers when he is on the field.... Better situation than a guy who is medicore and blows up 3 times a year and you never know whether to start him or not... cough cough Chad Johnson.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I'll take a guy who put up monster numbers when he is on the field.... Better situation than a guy who is medicore and blows up 3 times a year and you never know whether to start him or not... cough cough Chad Johnson.

I dont think anyone is arguing CJ over Smith. However, if you have Johnson on your team, you should be starting him every week.

 

[TheWick]

I did a google image search for steve smith badass and this is all I got

Steve Smith

 

[Q-Bert]

The last 33 games Delhomme/Smith have played together, Smith has averaged 15.6 FP/G. At what point is that not a fluke?If Smith and Delhomme play 16 games, Smith is a lock for the top 5. If you want to say one of them will be hurt, then sure, I agree Smith won't be top five.

One big problem. Doubling the players that a top-5 finish is depending on increases the chances that it doesn't happen. If every player in the entire NFL has a flat 25% chance of getting injured, then there's a 44% chance that one member of the Smiff/Delhomme combo goes down. And I'd argue that both players, Delhomme especially, are probably a larger injury risk than league average for their position. As a result, while I don't like trying to predict injuries, you have to acknowledge that Smiff is RADICALLY more likely to be derailed by such than his peers. If you think he's capable of top-5 production, you have to discount him for the dramatically increased risk.

Hey I value your opinion, so not being confrontational at all with this question next. Why do you say Smith is more likely to be injured at his position? I would assume it is due to him being injured badly before or playing so hard... But, want to know your response. I always hate knocking a guy just because of one fluke injury. I don't think Smith has had a pattern of injury has he?

He only weighs 185 pounds, he's only played in all 16 games twice in his 7-year career, and he seems to play with a sort of reckless abandon that, while part of what makes him great, also exposes him to a lot more hits. I don't think he's a significant injury risk, but I think he's a more significant injury risk than his peers (his peers being other top-10 fantasy WRs, such as Fitz, Moss, Colston, The Chad, Wayne, and the like).

Larry Fitzgerald - Missed one game last year and two games the year before that. His probable starting quarterback missed most of the season last year with a broken collarbone. His backup quarterback is older than God.Randy Moss - Missed six games in the last four years but was significantly limited in many more in both 2004 and 2006. Marques Colston - Missed two games in 2006.The Chad - Is bat#### crazy.Reggie Wayne - You got me on this one.My point - every player is an injury risk. I don't think Steve Smith is any worse than any other player.

Fitzgerald weighs FORTY POUNDS more than Moss ... weighs 30 pounds more than Smiff,Colston is 40 pounds heavier than Smiff, The Chad ... weighs about the same as Smiff

Fitzgerald: 27.87Moss: 25.56Colston: 27.14Johnson:25.06Smith:26.43The BMI values for the various players under discussion. I don't think the fact that Moss is 30 pounds heavier is really relevant. Of course he is heavier he is 7 inches taller.I also don't know that Steve Smith is uniquely dependent on his quarterback. Sure he suffered last year when Delhomme was hurt but mostly because he had David Freaking Carr for most of the rest of the season. None of these players would be very productive with Carr under center.I'm not saying that Smith is a lock to finish ahead of any of these guys. I'm just saying that I don't think he is especially risky. There are a group of guys I consider to be no brainers as #1 WR. That group includes all of these guys plus Braylon Edwards, Terrrell Owens, and Reggie Wayne. There are a clear top tier of WR in my mind and they all have some risk associated with them.

 

[Ozymandias]

BUT HE COULD BE SUSPENDED TWO PLUS GAMES!

Sorta.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'll take a guy who put up monster numbers when he is on the field.... Better situation than a guy who is medicore and blows up 3 times a year and you never know whether to start him or not... cough cough Chad Johnson.

I dont think anyone is arguing CJ over Smith. However, if you have Johnson on your team, you should be starting him every week.

In the last 2 years, Chad Johnson has failed to score ten fantasy points in 20 of his 32 games. That's more often than even guys like Jericho Cotchery and Joey Galloway, who can be had in round 7 or later.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The last 33 games Delhomme/Smith have played together, Smith has averaged 15.6 FP/G. At what point is that not a fluke?If Smith and Delhomme play 16 games, Smith is a lock for the top 5. If you want to say one of them will be hurt, then sure, I agree Smith won't be top five.

One big problem. Doubling the players that a top-5 finish is depending on increases the chances that it doesn't happen. If every player in the entire NFL has a flat 25% chance of getting injured, then there's a 44% chance that one member of the Smiff/Delhomme combo goes down. And I'd argue that both players, Delhomme especially, are probably a larger injury risk than league average for their position. As a result, while I don't like trying to predict injuries, you have to acknowledge that Smiff is RADICALLY more likely to be derailed by such than his peers. If you think he's capable of top-5 production, you have to discount him for the dramatically increased risk.

Hey I value your opinion, so not being confrontational at all with this question next. Why do you say Smith is more likely to be injured at his position? I would assume it is due to him being injured badly before or playing so hard... But, want to know your response. I always hate knocking a guy just because of one fluke injury. I don't think Smith has had a pattern of injury has he?

He only weighs 185 pounds, he's only played in all 16 games twice in his 7-year career, and he seems to play with a sort of reckless abandon that, while part of what makes him great, also exposes him to a lot more hits. I don't think he's a significant injury risk, but I think he's a more significant injury risk than his peers (his peers being other top-10 fantasy WRs, such as Fitz, Moss, Colston, The Chad, Wayne, and the like).

Larry Fitzgerald - Missed one game last year and two games the year before that. His probable starting quarterback missed most of the season last year with a broken collarbone. His backup quarterback is older than God.Randy Moss - Missed six games in the last four years but was significantly limited in many more in both 2004 and 2006. Marques Colston - Missed two games in 2006.The Chad - Is bat#### crazy.Reggie Wayne - You got me on this one.My point - every player is an injury risk. I don't think Steve Smith is any worse than any other player.

Every player is an injury risk. Smiff is more of an injury risk than any of his peers.Fitzgerald weighs FORTY POUNDS more than Smiff, and his style of play doesn't lead to as much contact. Also, his probable starting QB might be an injury risk, but in Fitz's case, that's a POSITIVE. Oh, he's also significantly younger than Smiff, and age increases injury risk.Moss has missed 6 games in his 10 year career. Come on, now. Also, he weighs 30 pounds more than Smiff, and once again, his style of play doesn't lead to as much contact. He's older than Smiff... but he's also the biggest physical freak of nature in the league.Colston is 40 pounds heavier than Smiff, and significantly younger.In his six years since becoming a starter, The Chad has yet to miss a game due to injury. He weighs about the same as Smiff, but again, I don't think his style of play leads to as much contact.In all four cases, I would call the WR in question a lesser injury risk than Steve Smith due to various factors, including injury history, style of play, size, and age. But even if you want to call all four equal risks for injury, then Smiff *STILL* laps the field, because he's far more dependent on his starting QB than any of the four, and his starting QB is a far greater injury risk than any of the other four's.

C'mon man, you know (and I think I even remember you arguing it in past threads over the years) that there's a lot more to it than pure total weight. Fitzgerald is 7 inches taller than Smith, so don't make it out to sound like Fitzgerald is some huge, thick guy while Smith is just a skinny little fella.

 

[SSOG]

Smith is valued right where he should be, and has little upside. When is the last time a WR who has an ADP in the mid-2nd to early 3rd really outplayed his draft position?

That's a ridiculous definition of "upside". According to that definition, the #1 draft pick has absolutely no upside at all, because no player can outperform that position. I mean, you might think that Tomlinson will rush for 2800 yards and 42 TDs, but why bother drafting him- it's not like that presents any upside, after all.A player with "upside" is a player with the potential to single-handedly carry you to a fantasy championship. Randy Moss has that kind of upside. Tom Brady has that kind of upside. Tomlinson, Peterson, and Westbrook have that kind of upside. Steve Smith, as he's demonstrated on the field, belongs in the very exclusive list of players with that kind of upside.

SSOG, You're being ridiculous here. First, yes, its true that the #1 overall can't exceed his draft position, but he can exceed his projections. Anyone else who exceeds their projections will likely exceed his draft position as well. So while his definition of upside whould have been slightly better in comparing actuals vs projections instead of draft position, it is still a pretty good measure. And its a much better definition than someone who can singlehandedly win you a championship. That implies that only superstars have "upside". That is truly one of the most goofy things I've heard here. Look at every sleeper pick you've ever had. Why draft them if not for their upside. If things break their way (supplanting a starter, recovering from injury whatever) they can beat their projections (and yes, their draft position). That's what wins championships.

I completely agree that "upside" should be defined as how much a guy exceeds his projections. Also, the guys who can singlehandedly win you championships have SO MUCH more upside than late round guys, it's not even funny. A late round RB might realistically exceed his projections by 300 yards and 6 scores and be said to have had a good season, but when TOMLINSON exceeds his projections, he exceeds them by 600 yards and 16 scores. *THAT* is a hell of a lot more upside, if you ask me.What wins championships isn't the sleepers who play at a low starter-caliber level. Those guys provide 20, 30 points of VBD. What wins championships are the studs that go out of their mind. Those guys provide 150+ points of VBD all by their lonesome. One Randy Moss last year was worth 15 Jerricho Cotchery's.Everyone focuses on upside with their late-round picks, thinking that's where upside really exists. For my money, the real upside comes in the first three rounds. You hit on a high-upside guy early, it'll make up for a half-dozen misses late.

C'mon man, you know (and I think I even remember you arguing it in past threads over the years) that there's a lot more to it than pure total weight. Fitzgerald is 7 inches taller than Smith, so don't make it out to sound like Fitzgerald is some huge, thick guy while Smith is just a skinny little fella.

Of course there's more to it than just weight. That's why I mentioned style of play, injury history, and age, as well. It's not like I just said "Oh, he's heavier, so he's less likely to get injured". I said "He's bigger, heavier, younger, avoids contact better, and isn't as dependent on his QB".Do I think Smiff is an exceptional injury risk? No, definitely not. Do I think he's a greater injury risk than Fitz, Colston, Johnson, or Moss? Yes, I do.

 

[msommer]

He certainly throws a mean punch....