Steve Smith-Panthers (1 Viewer)

[NYGus]

When I look around on various FF sites this guy is consistenly ranked 1 or 2 at the WR position.

Can anyone explain to me why that is?? Am I missing something? He's had 1 very good season.

When I look at the other 'top' WR this guy should be ranked in the second tier & not even top 5.

64.0 yds per game average and 30TD's? Pretty weak numbers for a #1 ranked WR.

(note: my league does not count PPR)

Since 2001-Smiths 1st year in the league

Check this:

T.O. 82 games played/71 TD = .87 TD's per game

Harrison 94 games played/75 TD = .80 TD's per game

Holt 94 games played/52 TD = .55 TD's per game

Ocho Cinco 92 games played 41 TD = .45 TD's per game

Wayne 93 games played/37 TD = .40 TD's per game

Smiff 77 games played/30TD = .39 TD's per game

Houshmazilli 72 games played 21/TD = .29 TD's per game

Just wondering what the good folks in the Shark Pool think.

:X

 

[sholditch]

nice number crunching there. I have him in the first tier but you are right, he probably is overrated. people are just in love with the guy's speed

 

[David Yudkin]

Good of you to include games when Smith was barely a factor and before he broke out. Over the past two seasons he's scored 20 times in 30 games = .667. In those years. he's also ranked as the #2 WR in terms of fantasy PPG.

 

[Fodasme69]

Good of you to include games when Smith was barely a factor and before he broke out. Over the past two seasons he's scored 20 times in 30 games = .667.

oh and I almost forgot

 

[tribecalledjeff]

I've thought this for a while, too. He had one lights out unreal season, which while it was very impressive, is not enough for me to take him as the first WR off the board. He's also lacking any sort of #2 this year, and is injury prone. I'll pass on him at his current price.

 

[David Yudkin]

Good of you to include games when Smith was barely a factor and before he broke out. Over the past two seasons he's scored 20 times in 30 games = .667.

oh and I almost forgot

Actually, Smith had 2 rushing TD so he actually moves up to 22/30 = .733.

 

[NYGus]

Good of you to include games when Smith was barely a factor and before he broke out. Over the past two seasons he's scored 20 times in 30 games = .667. In those years. he's also ranked as the #2 WR in terms of fantasy PPG.

Bottom line-1 very good year= Over rated. Not a top 5 WR and I'd take T.O.,Harrison,Holt, Ocho Cinco, and Wayne before Smith. Weak QB too. The other guys (aside from TO) have a top flight QB throwing them the ball. That has to factor into it.

 

[Brutis]

Smiths value comes in PPR imo.

 

[Ned]

he is the single-most dangerous wr when he has his hands on the ball. aside from owens (and now maybe evans ) i don't think there are any other wr's out there that can take it to the house from any spot on the field like he can.

 

[David Yudkin]

Over the past two seasons, Smith is #1 in fantasy points scored, #2 in receptions, # 2 in receiving yards, and #2 in total TD.

Had he played the first two games he was on pace for 95-1333-9. Would that have been a poor showing?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

SSmith if healthy is the #1 WR hands down, IMO

 

[GroveDiesel]

Over the past two seasons, Smith has averaged 13.1 PPG. TO has averaged 13.4 PPG.

I'll go ahead and take SS over anyone else still. He has the highest upside of any WR and as long as he's healthy he'll be a Top 5 WR.

Doh, I forgot about his rushing TDs. That actually takes SS up to 13.5 PPG in a non-PPR league over the past two seasons.

 

[NYGus]

Over the past two seasons, Smith is #1 in fantasy points scored, #2 in receptions, # 2 in receiving yards, and #2 in total TD.Had he played the first two games he was on pace for 95-1333-9. Would that have been a poor showing?

Not poor at all but not #1 numbers.

 

[NYGus]

he is the single-most dangerous wr when he has his hands on the ball. aside from owens (and now maybe evans ) i don't think there are any other wr's out there that can take it to the house from any spot on the field like he can.

"Can" and "Does" are miles apart.

 

[joffer]

SSmith if healthy is the #1 WR hands down, IMO

I actually think he's underrated a little, if that's possible. easily #1 on my board.

 

[sholditch]

did pretty well last year considering he only played in 14 games and had his QB go down at the end of the year. If you add in modest totals for the two he missed at the beginning of a season to project a full one, say 60 ypg and 1 score, he would have equaled Wayne's numbers. But you both make decent points.

 

[David Yudkin]

Over the past two seasons, Smith is #1 in fantasy points scored, #2 in receptions, # 2 in receiving yards, and #2 in total TD.Had he played the first two games he was on pace for 95-1333-9. Would that have been a poor showing?

Not poor at all but not #1 numbers.

So who is worthy or being considered as the #1 WR if not SSmith?

 

[Ned]

he is the single-most dangerous wr when he has his hands on the ball. aside from owens (and now maybe evans ) i don't think there are any other wr's out there that can take it to the house from any spot on the field like he can.

"Can" and "Does" are miles apart.

so you don't think he "does" or "had"?

 

[tribecalledjeff]

SSmith if healthy is the #1 WR hands down, IMO

I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that, but Smith has missed an entire season due to injury and also 2 games last year. I'm not looking for risk if I take a WR as high as I have to draft him. Holt has averaged over 10TD, 100catches the last 4 years. He's gold, especially in a ppr. He has played through pain and missed only 2 games his entire career. I'd much rather have him.

 

[Mr. Fusion]

I think his position as #1 is debatable (he's #1 on my board) but his position as a top flight WR is not. He's the clear cut go to guy and he is as close to uncoverable as there is in the league.

At which point was Tiki Barber no longer overrated after he got his real opportunity? Looking back to 2001 is a little silly.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Over the past two seasons, Smith is #1 in fantasy points scored, #2 in receptions, # 2 in receiving yards, and #2 in total TD.Had he played the first two games he was on pace for 95-1333-9. Would that have been a poor showing?

How come people are willing to give Smith a pass on missing games (he's played less than 75% of games in the last 4 years), but constantly harp on how injury prone a guy like Brian Westbrook is?

 

[NYGus]

Over the past two seasons, Smith is #1 in fantasy points scored, #2 in receptions, # 2 in receiving yards, and #2 in total TD.Had he played the first two games he was on pace for 95-1333-9. Would that have been a poor showing?

Not poor at all but not #1 numbers.

So who is worthy or being considered as the #1 WR if not SSmith?

Had he played the 1st 2 games doesn't factor into my equation. Did he? No. He is often injured as well.I look at what a guy has done over time-not using a small 2 year window. Look at the numbers and consistency. Hands down it's Marvin Harrison. Double digit TDs and damn near 1200 years every year since 1999. Plus he hasn't missed any significant time.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

Keep drinking the HATORADE! Steve Smith is a WR1 anyday of the week. Smith would have been top 5 AT LEAST last year if he was healthy and had Jake Delhomme at QB. You have to remember who was throwing the ball for a couple of weeks when SS was in the linup last year. Stinky Weinke was at QB for the Panthers for some games last year, and he and SS never had the chemistry that would have been there with Jake. Panthers also had a brutal schedule last year b/c everyone and their mom had the Panthers picked to go to the Superbowl. The Panthers have a somewhat easier schedule this year. If SS stays healthy and has Jake healthy the whole year, SS will put up 2005 numbers!

 

[Anthony Borbely]

He has been #2 in PPG in each of the last 2 seasons.

He is the clear #1 WR this year in my opinion.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Over the past two seasons, Smith is #1 in fantasy points scored, #2 in receptions, # 2 in receiving yards, and #2 in total TD.Had he played the first two games he was on pace for 95-1333-9. Would that have been a poor showing?

You can even factor in the zero catches when Weinke played. That makes his numbers even better. I can't believe anyone thinks he is overrated.

 

[NYGus]

Keep drinking the HATORADE! Steve Smith is a WR1 anyday of the week. Smith would have been top 5 AT LEAST last year if he was healthy and had Jake Delhomme at QB. You have to remember who was throwing the ball for a couple of weeks when SS was in the linup last year. Stinky Weinke was at QB for the Panthers for some games last year, and he and SS never had the chemistry that would have been there with Jake. Panthers also had a brutal schedule last year b/c everyone and their mom had the Panthers picked to go to the Superbowl. The Panthers have a somewhat easier schedule this year. If SS stays healthy and has Jake healthy the whole year, SS will put up 2005 numbers!

I'm reading a bunch of "IF's" and "CAN's" but the numbers don't lie. Sure he is talented but in no way he should be ranked #1 or 2. No Way. It's not hating at all, just pointing out the obvious. Seems like once FF sites start ranking guys a certain way almost everyone follows that lead instead of doing the research. I'd take Marvin, Holt, or TO (even with Romo) any day of the week over Steve Smith.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Keep drinking the HATORADE! Steve Smith is a WR1 anyday of the week. Smith would have been top 5 AT LEAST last year if he was healthy and had Jake Delhomme at QB. You have to remember who was throwing the ball for a couple of weeks when SS was in the linup last year. Stinky Weinke was at QB for the Panthers for some games last year, and he and SS never had the chemistry that would have been there with Jake. anthers also had a brutal schedule last year b/c everyone and their mom had the Panthers picked to go to the Superbowl . The Panthers have a somewhat easier schedule this year. If SS stays healthy and has Jake healthy the whole year, SS will put up 2005 numbers!

I'm pretty sure that wasn't the reason.

I don't really want to use the word "if" when taking the first WR off the board. With Smith, I do. I'd much rather wait a bit and take Holt, Marvin, CJ, TO, etc. Is Smith in that bucket? Sure. But I certainly don't think he is a clear cut #1 like a lot of people think that he is.

 

[IM666]

I tend not to argue with people like NYGus. In fact, I rather like having those people in my league; it makes the draft go much smoother

 

[NYGus]

I tend not to argue with people like NYGus. In fact, I rather like having those people in my league; it makes the draft go much smoother

Very informative post. Way to bring it.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Come on, this HAS to be

 

[IM666]

I tend not to argue with people like NYGus. In fact, I rather like having those people in my league; it makes the draft go much smoother

Very informative post. Way to bring it.

 

[cstu]

I'd be more comfortable taking CJ first because of his QB. Harrison is a close call but his age is a concern.

 

[NYGus]

Come on, this HAS to be

Fishing for what? I'm sitting here doing my FF homework and realized that everywhere I look Smith is #1 or 2 WR in the rankings. My point of view is that he is over rated and I posted the numbers to back up my opinion.Sure Harrison's age is a concern. TO's too. Jerry Rice blew out his ACL at age 35-same age as Marvin but I can only look at what he has done so far and he rarely misses games

 

[LILB811]

People always seem to like to draft on potential, myself included. Harrison is a lower risk guy, but also a lower reward than Smith. Since he's been the #1 guy in Carolina he hasn't had a good receiver on the opposite side and still puts up numbers, especially in a PPR league. I'm not sayin that the guy is #1 overall as far as receivers, but he's gotta be considered near the top. If you pass on him, you will make another owner in your league very happy.

 

[fightingillini]

Over the past two seasons, Smith is #1 in fantasy points scored, #2 in receptions, # 2 in receiving yards, and #2 in total TD.Had he played the first two games he was on pace for 95-1333-9. Would that have been a poor showing?

Not poor at all but not #1 numbers.

So who is worthy or being considered as the #1 WR if not SSmith?

Had he played the 1st 2 games doesn't factor into my equation. Did he? No. He is often injured as well.I look at what a guy has done over time-not using a small 2 year window. Look at the numbers and consistency. Hands down it's Marvin Harrison. Double digit TDs and damn near 1200 years every year since 1999. Plus he hasn't missed any significant time.

You would draft Harrison before S Smith? Sorry, I am buying that one. Wayne is the #1 WR in Indy now, IMO. Smith has a ton more upside than Harrison right now.That said, I do feel there are 5-6 WRs that could end up in the #1 spot, so taking the first WR is not getting good value....which makes Smith a little overvalued.

 

[EBF]

I agree that he's slightly overrated, but he's still a top 4-6 WR.

 

[NYGus]

Over the past two seasons, Smith is #1 in fantasy points scored, #2 in receptions, # 2 in receiving yards, and #2 in total TD.Had he played the first two games he was on pace for 95-1333-9. Would that have been a poor showing?

Not poor at all but not #1 numbers.

So who is worthy or being considered as the #1 WR if not SSmith?

Had he played the 1st 2 games doesn't factor into my equation. Did he? No. He is often injured as well.I look at what a guy has done over time-not using a small 2 year window. Look at the numbers and consistency. Hands down it's Marvin Harrison. Double digit TDs and damn near 1200 years every year since 1999. Plus he hasn't missed any significant time.

You would draft Harrison before S Smith? Sorry, I am buying that one. Wayne is the #1 WR in Indy now, IMO. Smith has a ton more upside than Harrison right now.That said, I do feel there are 5-6 WRs that could end up in the #1 spot, so taking the first WR is not getting good value....which makes Smith a little overvalued.

Show me where Wayne is the number one?? Has he EVER out performed Harrison? In 2004 Wayne had slightly more (97) yards and 3 less TD's.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

Just out of curiosity NYGUS, who is your top five?

Mine:

Smith

Chad Johnson

Holt

Marvin Harrison

T.O.

Is Steve Smith at least in your top 5?

 

[GroveDiesel]

Come on, this HAS to be

Fishing for what? I'm sitting here doing my FF homework and realized that everywhere I look Smith is #1 or 2 WR in the rankings. My point of view is that he is over rated and I posted the numbers to back up my opinion.Sure Harrison's age is a concern. TO's too. Jerry Rice blew out his ACL at age 35-same age as Marvin but I can only look at what he has done so far and he rarely misses games

No you posted SOME cherry picked numbers that backed up your opinion and then chose to ignore everyone that posted numbers that showed that your figures had signficant biases in them. But hey, if you can convince more people to drop Smith in their rankings, that's fine by me.

 

[NYGus]

Just out of curiosity NYGUS, who is your top five?

Mine:

Smith

Chad Johnson

Holt

Marvin Harrison

T.O.

Is Steve Smith at least in your top 5?

No he isn't. My top 5 as of today would be.Harrison

T.O.

Holt

Ocho Cinco

Wayne

THEN Steve Smith

Also---people here have been arguing about how Delhomme missed time last season and Weinke was throwing to Smith for a few games. I ask you this-What happens WHEN Delhomme loses his job to David Carr? Then what? How will Smiths numbers look then? Harrison and Wayne have a QB god throwing them the ball. 85 has Palmer and Holt has Bulger both top 5 QB's. Romo is a question mark and that may end up dropping TO in my rankings

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Over the past two seasons, Smith is #1 in fantasy points scored, #2 in receptions, # 2 in receiving yards, and #2 in total TD.Had he played the first two games he was on pace for 95-1333-9. Would that have been a poor showing?

Not poor at all but not #1 numbers.

Smith is a no-brainer for #1WR to me. I don't know who is 2 or 3 but Smith is clearly #1.In 2005 he puled off the Triple Crown-led the league in catches, yards and TDs. That's the best a WR can do.Last year he had the hammy and Delhomme missed 3 games with a thumb. He was replaced by the immortal Chris Weinke, who threw a whopping 2 TDs in the 3 games he played (none to Smith). In the 11g that Smith & Delhomme both played last year Smith caught 73 balls for 1043 yards with 8 TDs-plus 1 rushing. Scale that up to 16g and you're looking at 106c, 1517y and 13 TDs. That would have put him back in Triple Crown territory. And that was playing early in the year with the dreaded hamstring injury!I'm sure someone will accuse me of doctoring the numbers there but I think that Smith's fully healed hammy plus the addition of Carr, a legitimate backup means that he's a near lock to continue putting up the numbers he's been putting up for the last 2 years-the best of any WR.

 

[NYGus]

Over the past two seasons, Smith is #1 in fantasy points scored, #2 in receptions, # 2 in receiving yards, and #2 in total TD.Had he played the first two games he was on pace for 95-1333-9. Would that have been a poor showing?

Not poor at all but not #1 numbers.

Smith is a no-brainer for #1WR to me. I don't know who is 2 or 3 but Smith is clearly #1.In 2005 he puled off the Triple Crown-led the league in catches, yards and TDs. That's the best a WR can do.Last year he had the hammy and Delhomme missed 3 games with a thumb. He was replaced by the immortal Chris Weinke, who threw a whopping 2 TDs in the 3 games he played (none to Smith). In the 11g that Smith & Delhomme both played last year Smith caught 73 balls for 1043 yards with 8 TDs-plus 1 rushing. Scale that up to 16g and you're looking at 106c, 1517y and 13 TDs. That would have put him back in Triple Crown territory. And that was playing early in the year with the dreaded hamstring injury!I'm sure someone will accuse me of doctoring the numbers there but I think that Smith's fully healed hammy plus the addition of Carr, a legitimate backup means that he's a near lock to continue putting up the numbers he's been putting up for the last 2 years-the best of any WR.

The Triple crown is in Baseball and Horse Racing, there is no such thing in football.106c, 1517y and 13 TDs would exceed his career best. Not gonna happen.

 

[PsychoMan]

The only thing that has sucked about Steve Smith (well, besides missing a couple games to injury) was when Chris Weinke was throwing the rock. That was painful being a Smiffy owner for those few games.

 

[Chunky Soup]

This thread is nearing HK-absurdity levels

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

The Triple crown is in Baseball and Horse Racing, there is no such thing in football.

Very informative post. Way to bring it.I pointed out that he was the most productive WR in the league in 2005 and when he and his QB were healthy in 2006. Ignore that if you want but those are facts, my friend.

 

[NYGus]

The Triple crown is in Baseball and Horse Racing, there is no such thing in football.

Very informative post. Way to bring it.I pointed out that he was the most productive WR in the league in 2005 and when he and his QB were healthy in 2006. Ignore that if you want but those are facts, my friend.

I'm surprised you didn't realize that there was no triple crown in football. Glad I could help.I love this: "when he and his QB were healthy"

Like I've said all along he's had one VERY good season-so you can ignore that if you want but those are facts, my friend.

 

[FavreCo]

Smith is solid but his best is yet to come. Wait until he can hook up regularly with David Carr. Explosive!!!!, just not on the field.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

What I don't understand is how someone can make a post about most overrated FF WR and not be talking about Ocho Cinco

 

[EBF]

What I don't understand is how someone can make a post about most overrated FF WR and not be talking about Ocho Cinco

Steve Smith has one season of more than 1,200 receiving yards. Chad Johnson has averaged over 1,350 yards for the past four years. He has a better quarterback and is on the better offense. He's one of the safest picks in FF. So while he hasn't had the TO/Moss type seasons, he's a rock solid bet to finish in the top 10 every year. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[Jayrod]

NYGus, do you get to use prior season stats for this year's season?

The whole point of pre-draft analysis is to determine how guys will do THIS SEASON. If you looked solely at last years numbers, maybe you should draft Tiki Barber and ignore Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch. The fact is that on a per game basis, Steve Smith has been the best WR over the last two years and should be returning to the same situation as 2005 when he was the hands down top WR. That's why he's so high. The seasons before 2005 are not comparable because the Panthers still had Muhammad and in 2004 he broke his leg and missed the majority of the season.

If you're scared of the injury risk thats understandable, but it is also understandable why most FFers will draft Smith as the #1 WR.