Steven Jackson will clearly be #1 (during the playoffs ;-)) overall in (1 Viewer)

[mbuehner]

Im at a complete loss as to how SJax can possibly outperform Shaun Alexander barring injury.

LT2 and LJ I can buy into because they both have issues. Alexander is missing a probowl offensive lineman but the rest of the picture is intact.

-Alexanders career average is a full yard per carry better.

-Seattle plays even worse defenses than the Rams. They obviously play the same division games, but Seattles defense is much better than St Louis. They both play the Bears, St Louis plays Carolina and Washington, Seattle plays Tampa and the Giants.

-Better defense is better in general for the teams RB, Seattle will be playing with more leads and running more plays in general. Assuming they arent snake bitten post super-bowl loss, but I regard that statistic as akin to the Madden Curse.

-Jackson will have to increase his touches by 20% to get even with SA, and then he will have to perform at that level and stay healthy, certainly no given.

-Alexander is a TD machine, a TD for every 7.3% of touches.

Jackson is less than half that, 3.2%.

I dont see any statistic way to select Jackson over Alexander.

 

[nygiants56]

Chris Brown avg'd 6.7 per carry a few years ago , too..

 

[Buckna]

As someone who owns Steven, I would be strangely comfortable with this.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Stephen Jackson is not a smooth runner. Unless there are gaping holes, he is an average RB. His preaseon holes have been wide enough to drive a bus through, temper your excitement son. Take a look at Ernest Graham from TB if your cheatsheet is made of preseason heros. IMO, SJax will finish the year somewhere in the 8-13 range range for RBs. He is in a good system for success, but his talent is marginal.

I agree. Nearly 40% of his carries last year resulted in a gain of one yard or less. People blame Martz but he wasn't even the coach last year for most of the season. People blame the Bulger injury but he had a higher YPC in the games Bulger was out. He's a big part of the reason he didn't get more carries in several games. Why keep feeding a guy who's going nowhere. Take out the long run against Jacksonville when there was one minute left in the game and everyone was pretty much expecting a kneel down and his YPC last year was 3.9. I need to see a lot more from him before I'm calling him a stud.

 

[BassNBrew]

Im at a complete loss as to how SJax can possibly outperform Shaun Alexander barring injury.LT2 and LJ I can buy into because they both have issues. Alexander is missing a probowl offensive lineman but the rest of the picture is intact.-Alexanders career average is a full yard per carry better.-Seattle plays even worse defenses than the Rams. They obviously play the same division games, but Seattles defense is much better than St Louis. They both play the Bears, St Louis plays Carolina and Washington, Seattle plays Tampa and the Giants.-Better defense is better in general for the teams RB, Seattle will be playing with more leads and running more plays in general. Assuming they arent snake bitten post super-bowl loss, but I regard that statistic as akin to the Madden Curse.-Jackson will have to increase his touches by 20% to get even with SA, and then he will have to perform at that level and stay healthy, certainly no given.-Alexander is a TD machine, a TD for every 7.3% of touches. Jackson is less than half that, 3.2%.I dont see any statistic way to select Jackson over Alexander.

Jackson missed one game last year. Faulk had about 100 touches (44 recpts) and 600 yards last year. I'm projecting half to SJax and half to Fisher. A 42 recpt differential makes up 7 of those TDs...I don't think Alexander will have another career year either. I don't see Alexander increasing his rushes for a 4th consecutive year, at some point age and wear become a factor. Lastly, and I'll admit that I don't know how to quantify it, but the Super Bowl loser let down has to be considered.

 

[GBFreek]

I think the real question on a guy like SJax is not is he a #1 overall pick, because at this point, he simply is not, you cant pass up the other big 3 for him....

HOWEVER, sitting at #4, would you take a guy like SJax?? To me, its a real question with Portis dinged.

Positives:

Much more upside than Tiki

New "running" based system

Younger, fresher

Pretty good Oline

Negatives:

Never been Top 5

Its still STL (Bulger, Holt, Bruce and the passing game)

Moe Williams TD Vulcher

Thoughts on SJax as #4 Overall????

 

[BassNBrew]

Stephen Jackson is not a smooth runner. Unless there are gaping holes, he is an average RB. His preaseon holes have been wide enough to drive a bus through, temper your excitement son. Take a look at Ernest Graham from TB if your cheatsheet is made of preseason heros. IMO, SJax will finish the year somewhere in the 8-13 range range for RBs. He is in a good system for success, but his talent is marginal.

I agree. Nearly 40% of his carries last year resulted in a gain of one yard or less. People blame Martz but he wasn't even the coach last year for most of the season. People blame the Bulger injury but he had a higher YPC in the games Bulger was out. He's a big part of the reason he didn't get more carries in several games. Why keep feeding a guy who's going nowhere. Take out the long run against Jacksonville when there was one minute left in the game and everyone was pretty much expecting a kneel down and his YPC last year was 3.9. I need to see a lot more from him before I'm calling him a stud.

Just for reference...Walter's progression in his first three years on a sub-par offensive team. Not saying SJax=Walter, just pointing out that ypc can increase.13 | 196 679 3.5 7 14 | 311 1390 4.5 1314 | 339 1852 5.5 14

 

[fruity pebbles]

Stephen Jackson is not a smooth runner. Unless there are gaping holes, he is an average RB. His preaseon holes have been wide enough to drive a bus through, temper your excitement son. Take a look at Ernest Graham from TB if your cheatsheet is made of preseason heros. IMO, SJax will finish the year somewhere in the 8-13 range range for RBs. He is in a good system for success, but his talent is marginal.

I agree. Nearly 40% of his carries last year resulted in a gain of one yard or less. People blame Martz but he wasn't even the coach last year for most of the season. People blame the Bulger injury but he had a higher YPC in the games Bulger was out. He's a big part of the reason he didn't get more carries in several games. Why keep feeding a guy who's going nowhere. Take out the long run against Jacksonville when there was one minute left in the game and everyone was pretty much expecting a kneel down and his YPC last year was 3.9. I need to see a lot more from him before I'm calling him a stud.

Just for reference...Walter's progression in his first three years on a sub-par offensive team. Not saying SJax=Walter, just pointing out that ypc can increase.13 | 196 679 3.5 7 14 | 311 1390 4.5 1314 | 339 1852 5.5 14

I wouldn't call the Rams a sub par offensive team. Watching S-Jax play I'm just not impressed by him.

 

[Footballhead]

Somethings have to change, someone have to give way. We rank rb's based on our prejudice on yesteryear results and keep forgetting things are in constant change. I wouldn't be surprised if S-Jax ends up on top in FF world. The talent, oppurtunity and system is there. The only thing that'll hold him back will be his knees (knock on wood).

 

[SSOG]

I'm new here..... so tell me - is this amount of misinformation typical?

Only during the preseason. FBGs tend to be firm believers of taking any thread they don't agree with and mockingly imitating it until good and dead.

After analyzing the pre-season games, it's become crystal clear that Steven Jackson will be the top back in 2006. LJ, LT, SA, Portis, and Barber all carry severe handicaps coming into this season. Jackson's lofty 8 ypc average in the pre-season is a sign of good things to come. Jackson brings the perfect blend of maturity, talent, and fresh legs to the table and will follow a path like Payton, Smith, and Sanders in their third seasons. Combine that with an environment of Martz departing, Faulk hanging them up, plenty of passing weapons to keep the defense honest, and a fast home track and a top finish in 2006 is a certainty. Don't cry to me after the season if you burn a pick on one of the big 3.

Hey Bass, didn't you just "burn a pick on one of the big 3" in Anarchy1?If you believe the above to be true - why didn't you take S.Jackson with the first pick overall?

That was before the pre-season games when LJ and SA have posted RonDayain like numbers. LT is such an injury/fatigue risk that the Bolts are skared to play him. I had them all close before, but SJax's performance has easily pushed him over the top.

Actually, you've got it backwards. It's the preseason. SJax is the one posting Daynesian preseason numbers. If it were the regular season, then you'd be correct that LJ and SA are both looking Daynesian.

 

[SCT]

I hope you're right. He's my #2 behind LT... (don't ask)

Dude, let me know if there are any openings in your league! What is it, a four-teamer!?

SJax is my #2 behind Alexander....Had to choose between keeping SJ or Rudi. Tough. 12 team league, won my superbowl last year. Scrambling to get my picks back this year pre-draft!

 

[BassNBrew]

Hmmm...someone has quietly posted 120+ combined yards in each of his first 4 games and has 15 recpts. However if the TDs don't ramp up quickly hopes of a #1 finish will be fleeting.

As far as the big 3...

Alexander has been the bust that I expected.

LT has lost a portion of his load as predicted, however he's been playing at an uber-stud level and is crushing my expectations.

LJ has been right on par with my expectations.

 

[Cyclones]

Hmmm...someone has quietly posted 120+ combined yards in each of his first 4 games and has 15 recpts. However if the TDs don't ramp up quickly hopes of a #1 finish will be fleeting.As far as the big 3...Alexander has been the bust that I expected.LT has lost a portion of his load as predicted, however he's been playing at an uber-stud level and is crushing my expectations.LJ has been right on par with my expectations.

Portis will be number one by year's end. He shredded a dominant run D today.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Portis does look great, and it would appear the Duckett worries were unfounded thusfar. Looks like LT, LJ, Portis, Sjax, Westbrook and Rudi have clearly seperated themselves from the rest thusfar. Unless I'm forgetting someone else there seems to be a huge dropoff after that.

 

[BassNBrew]

Hmmm...someone has quietly posted 120+ combined yards in each of his first 4 games and has 15 recpts. However if the TDs don't ramp up quickly hopes of a #1 finish will be fleeting.As far as the big 3...Alexander has been the bust that I expected.LT has lost a portion of his load as predicted, however he's been playing at an uber-stud level and is crushing my expectations.LJ has been right on par with my expectations.

Portis will be number one by year's end. He shredded a dominant run D today.

Betts concerns me. Also we're talking ppr here.

 

[Cyclones]

Hmmm...someone has quietly posted 120+ combined yards in each of his first 4 games and has 15 recpts. However if the TDs don't ramp up quickly hopes of a #1 finish will be fleeting.As far as the big 3...Alexander has been the bust that I expected.LT has lost a portion of his load as predicted, however he's been playing at an uber-stud level and is crushing my expectations.LJ has been right on par with my expectations.

Portis will be number one by year's end. He shredded a dominant run D today.

Betts concerns me. Also we're talking ppr here.

Sorry, I'm struggling to see how a guy with 1 TD through 4 games that has been stuffed for no gain or worse 5 times out of 6 from inside the 3 yard line this year is going to be a top 3 RB. I think SJax is clearly behind LT, LJ, Portis and Westbrook; Jackson IMHO is in a group behind those 4 that includes Rudi, KJones (last two weeks have been huge for him) and even Maroney. I just don't see SJax putting up more than 8-10 TDs this year, and that just doesn't cut it for a top 3 or 4 guy. Edit to add - Since I have Wilkins, I have a huge amount of man love for SJax and his propensity to lose 3-5 yards on first down in the red zone. It's like money in the bank for my kicker.

 

[Cyclones]

Hmmm...someone has quietly posted 120+ combined yards in each of his first 4 games and has 15 recpts. However if the TDs don't ramp up quickly hopes of a #1 finish will be fleeting.As far as the big 3...Alexander has been the bust that I expected.LT has lost a portion of his load as predicted, however he's been playing at an uber-stud level and is crushing my expectations.LJ has been right on par with my expectations.

Portis will be number one by year's end. He shredded a dominant run D today.

Betts concerns me. Also we're talking ppr here.

Sorry, I'm struggling to see how a guy with 1 TD through 4 games that has been stuffed for no gain or worse 5 times out of 6 from inside the 3 yard line this year is going to be a top 3 RB. I think SJax is clearly behind LT, LJ, Portis and Westbrook; Jackson IMHO is in a group behind those 4 that includes Rudi, KJones (last two weeks have been huge for him) and even Maroney. I just don't see SJax putting up more than 8-10 TDs this year, and that just doesn't cut it for a top 3 or 4 guy. Edit to add - Since I have Wilkins, I have a huge amount of man love for SJax and his propensity to lose 3-5 yards on first down in the red zone. It's like money in the bank for my kicker.

Edit to add - I also have Holt, and the lack of trust for SJax in the red zone helps him a great deal too.

 

[BAT1man]

Portis does look great, and it would appear the Duckett worries were unfounded thusfar. Looks like LT, LJ, Portis, Sjax, Westbrook and Rudi have clearly seperated themselves from the rest thusfar. Unless I'm forgetting someone else there seems to be a huge dropoff after that.

Willie Parker is a huge dropoff? In my league, only Westbrook has a higher points per week average.

SJax is the #2 back in my league but has an identical points per week avaerage as FWP.

Edited to mention I am in a performance ppr league.

 

[mbuehner]

Hmm, Jackson is doing ok, but im definately not overly-wowed by him so far. He's had the opportunity to establish himself as an elite back and a contender for #1 and he hasnt done it yet.

Its been a down year for RBs so far- last season S-Jax would just crack the top 10 with his current numbers through 4 games... behind Julius Jones. Tomlinson had 8 tds and Alexander 6 by now. Jackson himself is only about 12 FPs better than he was at this point last season.

Thats a nice improvement but its not gonna get him up into the elite ranks, and worse, he isnt going to get to play SF, AZ, and Detroit every week. After Greenbay next week, the Rams face Seattle twice, SD, an improved KC, and Carolina over the next 5 games.

Playoff sched is Chicago, @Oakland, Wash. Thats pretty brutal, even playing Oakland at the blackhole isnt necesarilly a cakewalk.

Just staring down that bullet of Chicago the first playoff round is scary. After next week at GB might be the time to move Jackson if a great deal can be made for him. I think Jackson is an outstanding talent, but i dont think he is top 3, or even top 5 this year.

 

[Cowboys#1]

if you are in a ppr he is a top 5 for sure.

in a normal league i see him finishing 6-7, the tds will come, i think the stl offense will round in to form and be better than what we say in the first 3 weeks of the season (obviously not as good as yesterday's all year..)

 

[BassNBrew]

Time to revisit this???

Obviously I was wrong on LT, but picking SJax in the top three was money come playoff time.

Based on ppr...

w12 34.2

w13 25.5

w14 35.9

w15 24.7

w16 42.2

 

[Cowboys#1]

in ppr jax is the easy #2

to think how slowly he started off too..

 

[BassNBrew]

FINAL PLAYOFF NUMBERS

w12 SJ 34.2, LT 31.4 edge SJ

w13 SJ 25.5, LT 34.2 adv LT

w14 SJ 35.9, LT 30.2 ADV SJ

w15 SJ 24, LT 33.4 adv LT

w16 SJ 42.2, LT 14.3 landslide SJ

Totals

LT 143.5

SJ 161.8

Again, I missed the mark on the season basis, but SJax was decent enough to get you to the playoffs. Come money time I had the number one RB pegged.

PS: While Lhucks delivers "schtick" to the pool, BnB delivers championships.

BnB = Championzillships.

Lhucks = Payable (to champion) As Customary

 

[The Scorpion]

Why not pat yourself on the back some more, love guys who bring up their posts from 2 months or 5 months ago, when they are right....question is how many are they wrong about that disappear!!

 

[Norseman]

Why not pat yourself on the back some more, love guys who bring up their posts from 2 months or 5 months ago, when they are right....question is how many are they wrong about that disappear!!

Especially when they change the title of the thread

 

[BassNBrew]

Why not pat yourself on the back some more, love guys who bring up their posts from 2 months or 5 months ago, when they are right....question is how many are they wrong about that disappear!!

Not wrong that often, but freely admit it in the appropriate thread (aka Foster and Bush to an extent) when it happens. You'll note that I bumped this earlier in the year when things weren't looking as good too.

 

[BassNBrew]

Why not pat yourself on the back some more, love guys who bring up their posts from 2 months or 5 months ago, when they are right....question is how many are they wrong about that disappear!!

Especially when they change the title of the thread

Miss the " " in the title?

 

[2banalias]

Seems like there's a lot of crow that needs to be eaten around here.