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Stewart new feature back in Carolina? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter shadyridr
- Start date
packersfan
Footballguy
No but 72% of the RB touches might.
Gawain
Footballguy
Then you factor in when Newton runs and that number goes down to 54%. Tolbert coming in at the goalline also doesn't make me jump for joy as a Stewart owner.ETA:21 rushes37 attempted passes2 sacksThat's almost a 2:1 pass/run ratio in a game that Carolina led most of. I didn't watch it, but I have no idea how many of Newton's runs were designed and how many were the result of a play breaking down, but if all of his rushes came out of designed pass plays, that ratio goes to 3:1 (15 designed rushes against 45 designed pass plays). As long as that playcalling remains, it's going to be tough to find any use in the Carolina backs. That glorious year of 2009, wasn't the playcalling 60:40 rush to pass?
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Posted this in the JStew thread..
It's time to start talking about redraft value guys.
Let's look ahead (defense ranking in 1PPR)..
WAS(21rst), CHI(30th), DEN(15th), TB(22nd), PHI(25th), KC(8th), ATL(13th), SD(14th), OAK(7th)
Let's be honest, the schedule is pretty horrible. It does however open up around playoff time. I'm also aware Cam and Tolbert will effect volume, that CAR is a mess and just lost their center but JStew's talent could supersede all of these factors if given the opportunity. I believe if JStews touches catch up with his possible future snap percentage he'll hold legit RB2 value regardless of match up.
It's time to start talking about redraft value guys.
I can't exactly explain how excited this news actually makes me. Sure Tolbert vultured a TD but Stewart saw 89% of the teams snaps compared to Dwill's 8%. That is the snap percentage of a workhorse type back.
Let's look ahead (defense ranking in 1PPR)..
WAS(21rst), CHI(30th), DEN(15th), TB(22nd), PHI(25th), KC(8th), ATL(13th), SD(14th), OAK(7th)
Let's be honest, the schedule is pretty horrible. It does however open up around playoff time. I'm also aware Cam and Tolbert will effect volume, that CAR is a mess and just lost their center but JStew's talent could supersede all of these factors if given the opportunity. I believe if JStews touches catch up with his possible future snap percentage he'll hold legit RB2 value regardless of match up.
packersfan
Footballguy
I'm not jumping for joy either and I agree with everything you say. However, as a Stewart owner I'd much rather see his role increase going forward than the opposite.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
It's more important to look at utilization which incorporates targets in the passing game. He was utilized 14 times compared Tolbert's 4 and Dwills' 2. I'm expecting this trend to continue with a bit more focus being allocated to the ground game in future weeks.When you've drafted JStew in the past, it was implied that if DWills went down you'd be left with a RB1. Well, if DWills is only seeing 8% of all offensive snaps, I think we can equate that to "being out". As an owner, I really don't understand how you cannot jump for joy here.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Thanks SSND. Where do i find the defense rank data? I should know but I don't. I subscribe here if it matters.TIA.
Not necessarily run it that much more, just run the ball normally again.The read option was a an experiment that failed miserably and only stuck around this long because of the week 2 performance against a putrid Saints D
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I use fftoday.com for rankings, kffl.com for targets/utilization and footballoutsiders.com for snap percentages.
You can customize rankings at fftoday.com to fit your format, tis why I like it so much.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
i think they like how stewart can be a 3 down back and can catch the ball nicely... i think cam likes him in there...
i was just about to cut the guy... but now.. I'll keep him on the bench another week...
i was just about to cut the guy... but now.. I'll keep him on the bench another week...
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
I use fftoday.com for rankings, kffl.com for targets/utilization and footballoutsiders.com for snap percentages.
I don't think he is that much out of favor necessarily... like Rivera commented, its more of a rhythm thing. J Stew is more complete of a back with better pass catching and goalline ability. So if you had to pick 1 to be an every down back he seems like the better choice.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Unfortunately, Stewart's days of being a talented guy playing for a premiere rushing team were wasted with injuries and timeshare. Even if he takes over the feature back role now, his upside is significantly more limited now than it was then.
Banger
Footballguy
for him to get real value though they need to increase the pie...
Nucker101
Footballguy
Good post, I agree that Stewart is a solid RB as the main RB now.For the SOS posted, 1 PPR could be a little flawed when looking at running back points against since it depends on the offensive team's system/gameplan. Teams like the Saints, Eagles, Ravens etc. will drive that up since they have good receiving backs and like to run a good amount of screen plays. While a team like the Redskins with Morris will probably stick to running.
Even in PPR leagues, I prefer to look at points allowed without PPR scoring, and ypc allowed.
Outside of KC and ATL, Carolina has a pretty tough schedule which does limit J-Stew's upside a bit.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Agreed, I was just using that as an example to put the situation into perspective. My real opinion is in my second most recent post, where I said " I believe if JStews touches catch up with his possible future snap percentage he'll hold legit RB2 value regardless of match up.". The offense is anemic and that is clearly the main thing holding him back IMO. I do not believe he has been affected by injuries however. He may not have finished with a nice stat line last week, but on his 20 yard rumble he looked just as good as ever to me.
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Warhogs
Footballguy
As a DeAngelo dynasty owner this obviously hurts for this season. Am I wrong that Stewart's contract will be up after this year and they will need to try to resign him? Would it be reasonable to expect that DeAngelo will be cut after this season and be looking for a new opportunity?
packersfan
Footballguy
I'm not sure his upside is significantly lower. The situation isn't great obviously but he's only 25 and doesn't have a lot of tread on his tires due to the time share he's always been in. If he gets locked in for 15+ touches per week I think he's no worse than a solid RB2 in PPR leagues. If the Panthers show any signs of improvement he could inch his way closer to RB1 status. Stewart's talented and he's always done well when given volume (often playing with far less talented QBs than Cam Newton). He just needs a consistent opportunity.
Banger
Footballguy
if they are smart though they can/will use him out of the backfield to get the ball in his hands. If he's truly their 3 down back he should be able to put up numbers (either through the ground or air) against everyone.
Banger
Footballguy
they resigned Stewart before the season to a big dollar long term contract.
Warhogs
Footballguy
Thanks. I remember the conversations but could not remember details. So both Stewart and Williams were signed to large contracts as well as Tolbert. And they fired the GM? Seems right.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I initially used 1PPR as a measure since it was JStew's bread and butter last year and I'm assuming it would carry on into this year if given the opportunity. You brought up a good point though, it is rather dependent on match up. Interestingly enough, if I were going to do the same for someone like ALMO, I'd look at the ranking under standard scoring settings.Anyway, I'm not so sure the SOS changes too much depending on format from prior experiences, but let's see. I'll do standard and .5PPR.'Nucker101 said:
Standard
WAS(21rst), CHI(32nd), DEN(14th), TB(23rd), PHI(26th), KC(6th), ATL(12th), SD(17th), OAK(11th)
.5PPR
WAS(21rst), CHI(32nd), DEN(14th), TB(23nd), PHI(26th), KC(6hth), ATL(12th), SD(17th), OAK(11th)
1PPR
WAS(21rst), CHI(30th), DEN(15th), TB(22nd), PHI(25th), KC(8th), ATL(13th), SD(14th), OAK(7th)
It looks like 1PPR just makes his play off schedule seem juicier.
Nucker101
Footballguy
It also seems like their is little difference in the rankings between all 3 scoring systems which is a little surprising.
JFS171
Footballguy
Terrible timing for this news for those of us trying to buy the guy.
I'll still believe it when I see it... I can't imagine them completely kicking DW to the curb, even if that's what they apparently "tried" to do this past week.
As a fan, I'd like to see Stewart get the ball... I just have trouble believing DW is suddenly relegated to the bench.
I'll still believe it when I see it... I can't imagine them completely kicking DW to the curb, even if that's what they apparently "tried" to do this past week.
As a fan, I'd like to see Stewart get the ball... I just have trouble believing DW is suddenly relegated to the bench.
packersfan
Footballguy
They didn't try to do it. They did it. Williams was essentially benched against the Cowboys for all intents and purposes.That said, like you I'm skeptical they'll keep doing it. As a Stewart owner I'd love for it to be true but it's hard for me to believe they'll just banish Williams to the sidelines for the remainder of the season.
JFS171
Footballguy
My point was that led to a whopping 10 carries for Stewart and Tolbert sniped the rushing TD. I'd love for them to give him the rock 20 times in traditional running plays... but I'll believe that when I see it.
packersfan
Footballguy
True, but again he got 72% of the RB touches. It's obvious they followed through on their plan to "feature" him. He was clearly their No. 1 RB against the Cowboys. Now if you want to say he should've gotten more touches I won't disagree with you. But for one game at least he clearly was their top RB. Now we need to see if that will continue and if, more importantly for Stewart owners, it will result in more touches going forward.
How can you ever get ahead in fantasy if this is always your schtick?The team is 6 games out in the division. The losingest team since 09. The GM was fired. The coach is on the hot seat and preaching change.
And we should expect they will just keep hitting their head against the wall?
Shutout
Footballguy
Anytime a talented young RB finds himself with a lion-share role, that is a good thing. I think what we are seeing is a clear change...finally. The team has jettisoned its GM and now appears to move away from DWIL and his non-guaranteed money next year and what better way than to put JSTEW out there and see/make sure they have what they want in him.
This will help the team simplify things for the offense. No more ten variations of situational substitutions. Just put your best 11 out there and run plays with those guys. JSTEW can stay in on passing downs. Just go out there and see what you have now.
This will help the team simplify things for the offense. No more ten variations of situational substitutions. Just put your best 11 out there and run plays with those guys. JSTEW can stay in on passing downs. Just go out there and see what you have now.
JFS171
Footballguy
Read my other posts in other threads... I've been preaching to buy Stewart in dynasty leagues. Wasn't as sure in redraft.I've been a Carolina fan for the length of the franchise... and part of me does expect them to keep hitting their head against the wall. DW is also a fan favorite and a Richardson guy, so I'd be surprised if he was permanently kicked to the curb.
Rivera hasn't shown a willingness to reign in his ACs and make them follow the blueprint. He stated the blueprint was to feature one back and try to get that guy in a rhythm. That tells me the coaches watching film and discussing the gameplan laid that out. Chud, on the other hand, proceeds to give Stew 10 carries and 3 catches while running that incredibly stupid zone read repeatedly, despite it not working. Rivera didn't get on him at half and force a change, and this is despite the team being right in the thick of the game the entire time.
My point is, Chud's gone rogue, and no one has stopped him yet. And after being a fan since the inception of the franchise, I'm used to some pretty stupid decisions coming down, though the source of many of them just got canned.
Teezee
Footballguy
You kidding me guy? These guys talent levels are are in different stratospheres. Stewart's talent ####s on DeAngelo's
sho nuff
Footballguy
Umm...no.
solorca
Footballguy
That's what this staff seems to be good at! Instead of analyzing their idiotic play calling during the bye week, they moved Stewart into a bell cow roll. It's like they refuse to acknowledge that THEY are the problems, not the running backs. Hopefully the Hurney firing will force them to evaluate a little further... And as a Panthers fan, I think the changing of the guard to Stewart is the correct move. Williams is aging and it's a lost season. Let's see how he reacts as the top back for the rest of the season.
Riiiight...until he gets a hangnail and is on the shelf for multiple weeks.
packersfan
Footballguy
Stewart's now in his fifth season. In that time, he's missed four games. Two of those missed games occurred this season.
shadyridr
Footballguy
lol no
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
Can we get all of these jstew threads merged?
money.never.sleeps
Footballguy
GM gone and Rivera is next. Of course he's going to say this but it wont matter. The scheme isnt very good/playcalling has been horendous and it seems that the old GM's idea about player personnel wasnt on the same page with Rivera's plans. I realize he's gone now but Rivera has set himself up to be fired and now with the GM gone the owner wants to put blame on someone because this Panthers team isnt going anywhere. To top things off you have a sulking QB that is allegedly not in the good graces of a lot of veteran players in that locker room.
How can anyone really feel that great about any RB in Carolina when its apparent that the key figures of the team will be new starting next year?
EDIT: Then you have Cam Newton having 4 less carries than DWill this year and 11 more than Stew. Factor in goal line carries for Cam and Tolbert = more reasons to trade JStew after a few good starts.
How can anyone really feel that great about any RB in Carolina when its apparent that the key figures of the team will be new starting next year?
EDIT: Then you have Cam Newton having 4 less carries than DWill this year and 11 more than Stew. Factor in goal line carries for Cam and Tolbert = more reasons to trade JStew after a few good starts.
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