TripItUp
Footballguy
I don't expect a sharp rally, but it's hard to know with any certainty...a lot of factors in play.
Typically, losses occur more sharply than do gains.
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Stock Thread (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Typically, losses occur more sharply than do gains.
heropretend
Footballguy
Gold miners are all sick and indebted. Same condition as oil. Gold itself, I feel pretty strongly that public speculation in gold etfs and not economic/currency fear drove the price of gold up. When Argentinans are fearful of inflation they horde USD, when Asians are cautious they buy direct flight from Asia to US real estate, etc. GLD and GDX 2012 levels probably won't be reached unless every incoming producing asset and currency alternative plus paypal plus bitcoin and bitcoin alternatives plus inflation and capital protecting assets all go #### up.
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Politician Spock
Footballguy
The main reason stocks are dropping isn't fear. They're dropping from deflation, which affects gold somewhat too. Fear is a smaller portion of why stocks are dropping, and that smaller portion is running to things like gold. So the price of gold is hurting from deflation but also benefiting from fear.
Maybe I misunderstood you, but that's how I took "the upside is greater than the downside at this point", considering you gave a downside of another 20% or more potential drop.
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Mario Kart
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Don't get it... Is it over? Are we ready to rally back to 18k?
John Bender
Footballguy
cosMidas 
I pulled out at 20.43
Thanks again. Sick 2 days
I pulled out at 20.43
Thanks again. Sick 2 days
cosjobs
Footballguy
Man, I'm up 7% on my FAS "daytrade" and can't decide whether to sell or hold overnightcosMidas
I pulled out at 20.43
Thanks again. Sick 2 days
John Bender
Footballguy
I already bailed.Man, I'm up 7% on my FAS "daytrade" and can't decide whether to sell or hold overnightcosMidas
I pulled out at 20.43
Thanks again. Sick 2 days
Happy with what I got out of it for having done no research on my own.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Sold enough to break even on the trade and kept 30 shares as my profitMan, I'm up 7% on my FAS "daytrade" and can't decide whether to sell or hold overnightcosMidas
I pulled out at 20.43
Thanks again. Sick 2 days
John Bender
Footballguy
Pardon my ignorance, but I assume it's common for these Do-It-Yourself sites to withhold money for a day or so on buys and sells you make within hours of each other?
My cash out from UVXY yesterday is still untradeable cash for me right now and sitting in a cloud.
My cash out from UVXY yesterday is still untradeable cash for me right now and sitting in a cloud.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Pretty decent rally off the lows but put my IRA money in bonds for now until there is some sort of sign of support.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
You might be in some sort of 90 day restriction, meaning you can only trade once prior trades have settled. You may have made a trade and then sold prior to funds settling to get yourself into the restriction.
You can open a margin account to go around this too.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Yeah, you gotta wait for the funds to clear.
That's the only reason I have a margin account- it let's me use my trade income immediately. I never get into margin enough or long enough to pay interest
John Bender
Footballguy
Jesus 90 days? I've pumped half my savings into my brokerage and can't pump anymore and don't want to reload again (yes I'm buying a lot this past week and need the cash there to do so and continue to day trade)
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John Bender
Footballguy
Can I get a margin account through TD Ameritrade? This is Greek to me.
John Bender
Footballguy
Bad day, nice afternoon.
culdeus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
With this kind of reversal, is there any chance in the world tomorrow is a big day for the market? I kinda want to snag an easy 1.5% on an S&P fund, I'm not going to, but it feels the odds heavily favor a healthy day tomorrow.
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cstu
Footballguy
lod01
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Futures just shot up 200 points in 10 minutes bc Draghi mentioned more easing could be coming in Europe. All of these central banks will make things worse if they don't let things run as they should. We aren't in a 2008 situation, we need normal, not more government help. You're just making things worse, not now, but down the road.
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skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Annnd two of those oil stocks went up 23%, and 12% respectively, today.
This is why you do't get cute, attempting to time the market. That being said, I think I'll still be glad that I got out, but the temporary reversal is almost comical in context.How's the bolded going for ya?Annnd two of those oil stocks went up 23%, and 12% respectively, today.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Um, yeah...How's the bolded going for ya?Annnd two of those oil stocks went up 23%, and 12% respectively, today.
This #### is addicting, need to ween myself. Just need to walk away, and monitor the S&P. I'm looking to reenter around 1740-1750. Maybe we just bottomed, and I'm a #######. Wouldn't surprise me.
Todem
Footballguy
Your talking about XOM, COP, CVX, OXY...these are massive downstream oil companies......and even if they cut a little your looking at yields north of 4% at these price levels.
Dividends are in big trouble for up stream (like HP but I still ove that stock long term at this level) exploration and drillers and small oil and shale players. Not these giants.
They will hold just fine. Their balance sheets are flush with cash....flush. They will cut cap ex a ton to weather this storm of 30 dollar oil. By year end oil should be back at 40ish level. Again could be wrong....but I think it will play itself out. It has become over done.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
My generation (millennials) will take the brunt of this bull#### if something doesn't change - It is complete nonsense... Gen X blames all this #### on Baby Boomers, which is more garbage. Sure, Baby Boomers aren't equipped for retirement and old age, which falls on them, but the majority of the discord in the financial world right now is on Gen X.
Gen X brought us to this point with the original tech bubble at the turn of the millennium and then they didn't learn their lesson bc they're so greedy, and then brought us the 2007-2009 fiasco. Now the hedge fund managers / central bankers are all 40's some 50's and they'll keep ####### us until they have hoarded enough wealth for 100 lifetimes. They want more stimulus and more easing, who gives a #### about the future generations, #### them is their mindset.
All the easing and all the stimulus will eventually be paid for, not by their generation, but mine.
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Todem
Footballguy
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lod01
Footballguy
Seems to happen more often that not to me. That being said, on your 'waiting for 1750 S&P' I am doing the same. Breaking my rule of if I save 1% on 'buy and hold' guys, I'll jump back in. Even if the low is in, they will talk up a retest of the low which going back thru time, always seems to happen.Annnd two of those oil stocks went up 23%, and 12% respectively, today.
Todem
Footballguy
Once oil stabilizes we will.fantasycurse42 said:
A healthy and quite normal market correction.
Look I have been investing my own money since 1987. If your not emotional and have a good diversified portfolio of high quality dividend paying stocks your going to do fine over the long haul.
The clients I manage who have the most worry right now are very near or in retirement. They see their nest egg's principal going down fast during violent swings like this. However my growth and income portfolio for my clients aged 49-60 is down 3.3% this month. Compare that with the blood bath we have seen in January in the equity index's! Also my clients who are in retirement are in high quality dividend stocks, a diversified muni and high yield muni portfolio etc etc. But when your having indiscriminate selling it can become un-nerving. I get it. If your young and aggresive (like me) and sit in 80% equities you have to ride through this storm.
If your 10 years or more from retirement.
Relax. Stay invested and re-balance on these down turns. Don't try to time bottoms and keep dollar cost averaging into your balanced portfolio. Going from stocks to bonds and back again? Ok....good luck. If the volatility is too much for you...re-asses your risk tolerance and when the market rallies back to 18K (because it will at some point believe me it will...not if....when) rebalance to a more conservative lower beta/standard deviation type of mix and sleep better at night but also accept less participation on the upside (but less on the down side).
Stay disciplined or you will drive yourself insane.
SIDA!
Footballguy
The tech bubble (when the earliest Gen X'ers had barely turned 30) was a Gen X creation?
Todem
Footballguy
No you won't.....keep investing smart and stake your claim. You'll be fine. Don't blame my generation. I did not blame anyone for major corrections when I was a younger investor. I took advantage of them. It's how I made my way through the world. When fear is high get greedy. When fear is very low...get scared.
Value investing 101 brought to you by Warren Buffet.
You're not helping the rep of millennials with this rant. There is plenty of "blame" to go around, but in general, we're a self-centered, short-sighted, greedy society that always wants more, now. It isn't endemic to any one group of people.
Also, I'm speaking about returns on asset classes- stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. I don't think it's going to take a generation to pay the piper for QE, ZIRP, etc. (we may be starting to do that right now). The national debt is another story...
NREC34
Footballguy
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I think I had about $3,000 to my name at the height of the Dot-Com Bubble. The shame of how I've contributed to crippling you all is suddenly overwhelming, though. Goodbye, cruel world!
You can bury my money with me, though. 'Cause F these whiny bitches.
You can bury my money with me, though. 'Cause F these whiny bitches.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Obviously the demographics of this board would make that opinion very unpopular, but history backs it up. Two of the biggest crashes ever and now a lengthy period of outrageous policy have all been commandeered under the Gen X watch. Someone will have to pay for this.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
James Daulton
Footballguy
To be fair, college cost for us and our parents were way lower than the absurd dollars paid today. Also, our parents (and likely us) could expect pensions (parents anyway) and some semblance of social security. I too would hate to be entering the job market as a young person. Corporations will chew you up and spit you out with no regard.
Todem
Footballguy
True non self funded pensions for Gen X'ers are those that work in Government, fire and law enforcement.
That's it.
Those days are history.
And it is true that corporations will chew you up and spit you out. But it has been that way since the early 80's.
My pension is whatever I save and invest. SS will still be there for me too (I believe that) but all that will be is about 30K a year. That pays the utilities and insurance and some other mail box bills not much else.
Ignoramus
Footballguy
And as long as they make the rules with their $$$ nobody will be held accountable. We'll crash again and the people that built the system will cash out again, laughing at us all the while. Then we'll do it all again. But hey, American Idol is on tonight!
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I blame the gingers
