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The safest play is XOM, but I like CVX a lot too. COP and BP are having some issues no doubt.
Welcome Vinny!!
There's a place for all of these angles, or an amalgam of all of them. Anyone giddy or selling just one take or the entire opposite deserve equal skepticism. Education, prudence, and plain smarts will allow someone to be succesful at any or all of these strategies - and time has proven that. HTH
I missed the bullishness in 2009 when I had the chance to be retired by now.
I don't see BP cutting this dividend anytime soon.
Not a lot to say here anymore, but I wanted to check in. The thread has been a pretty good and entertaining read.I'm always surprised. Most folks here say "I'm not a market timer!" But what they in fact do is attempt to time the market. Anyone buying oil here is just trying to time the market. It is what it is..you are how you invest.Yeah, it seems a damn good time. Better than buying 5k worth of LNCO 3 years ago at $37.50, and seeing it lose 2/3 of it's value lately...Leaving it in my Roth, as I really can't see it going much lower. Yield is still over 10% even with their divy cut.
Oil ($UCO or any other such ETF) is in a severe bearish trend. It's just a fact. And playing with an Ultra fnud where the main component is in a severe bear trend is outright foolish.
Why not recognize that fact and invest according to the trend?
That demands patience in the HERE & NOW. You MUST wait for the trend to bottom and turn. No one knows where that will be. Why relegate yourself to the fools errand of a market timer.
I've always got the feeling most of you think of me as a "timer" or a day trader. Neither is true. My "timing" is always based upon recognizing the early phase of a trend. The time frame may be different but the process is always the same.
Trend following is pretty simple. ( i saw the following paragraph last week and copied it down and modified it a bit, but this speaks to my exact feelings)
Trend Following is not based on a "prediction". It's not based on the idea of Buy and Hold Forever or the recommendation of an analysts. Trend following is a systematic decision-making process that doesn't involve discretion, guesses, gut feelings, or hunches. It’s not day trading or buy and hope. It doesn't involve passive indexing, in and out trading or fundamental analysis. No more 24 hour news cycles, daily turbulence or sensational hype. No black boxes or magic formulas either. Trend following is not a Holy Grail - sometimes there are winners and sometimes there are losers.
Trends are universal and exist everywhere. Like Summer trends into Winter- eventually bull markets trend into bear and back again into bull. Trend following never anticipates the beginning or the end of a trend. It only acts when the trend changes. There is no need to figure out why a market is trending...just follow. When you follow the trend you have a concrete method for determining when to buy' when to add; when to sell; and when to short.
I've always said "use fundamental analysis to help you chose what to invest in and trend analysis to determine when to invest in it." You might have the "what" down in regards to $UCO but definitely not the "when".
Sure today might be the bottom. Congratulations if it is. You might be the hero. But if it's not the bottom will likely suffer emotional distress over thge next days, weeks months...which will lead to poor decision making in the future. The truth is people are apt to get squeezed in a position where they think "forget the cheese just let me out of the trap." And they do so right at the worst moments. And that happens most often when the position is underwater from the get-go.
Be patient. This trend will turn and if you follow the trend you will still be able to secure a solid profit if not a home run.
Hope you're well GBsiffoin said:Not a lot to say here anymore, but I wanted to check in. The thread has been a pretty good and entertaining read.I'm always surprised. Most folks here say "I'm not a market timer!" But what they in fact do is attempt to time the market. Anyone buying oil here is just trying to time the market. It is what it is..you are how you invest.Yeah, it seems a damn good time. Better than buying 5k worth of LNCO 3 years ago at $37.50, and seeing it lose 2/3 of it's value lately...
Oil ($UCO or any other such ETF) is in a severe bearish trend. It's just a fact. And playing with an Ultra fnud where the main component is in a severe bear trend is outright foolish.
Why not recognize that fact and invest according to the trend?
That demands patience in the HERE & NOW. You MUST wait for the trend to bottom and turn. No one knows where that will be. Why relegate yourself to the fools errand of a market timer.
I've always got the feeling most of you think of me as a "timer" or a day trader. Neither is true. My "timing" is always based upon recognizing the early phase of a trend. The time frame may be different but the process is always the same.
Trend following is pretty simple. ( i saw the following paragraph last week and copied it down and modified it a bit, but this speaks to my exact feelings)
Trend Following is not based on a "prediction". It's not based on the idea of Buy and Hold Forever or the recommendation of an analysts. Trend following is a systematic decision-making process that doesn't involve discretion, guesses, gut feelings, or hunches. It’s not day trading or buy and hope. It doesn't involve passive indexing, in and out trading or fundamental analysis. No more 24 hour news cycles, daily turbulence or sensational hype. No black boxes or magic formulas either. Trend following is not a Holy Grail - sometimes there are winners and sometimes there are losers.
Trends are universal and exist everywhere. Like Summer trends into Winter- eventually bull markets trend into bear and back again into bull. Trend following never anticipates the beginning or the end of a trend. It only acts when the trend changes. There is no need to figure out why a market is trending...just follow. When you follow the trend you have a concrete method for determining when to buy' when to add; when to sell; and when to short.
I've always said "use fundamental analysis to help you chose what to invest in and trend analysis to determine when to invest in it." You might have the "what" down in regards to $UCO but definitely not the "when".
Sure today might be the bottom. Congratulations if it is. You might be the hero. But if it's not the bottom will likely suffer emotional distress over thge next days, weeks months...which will lead to poor decision making in the future. The truth is people are apt to get squeezed in a position where they think "forget the cheese just let me out of the trap." And they do so right at the worst moments. And that happens most often when the position is underwater from the get-go.
Be patient. This trend will turn and if you follow the trend you will still be able to secure a solid profit if not a home run.
With that said - perhaps the above from Jan 2015 will provide a nice refresher.
For the record $UCO was $44.50 on the day of this post. A whole lot of money could have been made just following the trend, and on the other side - a whole lot of losses could of been avoided.
Good luck with all your investments!
Individual investments in companies I like long term. About 80% of my money that would be in mutual funds and such is on the sidelines.
Went above $840 in the after hours when they announced, now down below $760. Sick.
Been on the train since $510-ish, looks like $815 in after-hours.
No kidding. My biggest position and way up but may have to push all in should it keep going down.Went above $840 in the after hours when they announced, now down below $760. Sick.
Been on the train since $510-ish, looks like $815 in after-hours.
Some Asian persuasion my man. She is cute indeed.
