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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)

Just thinking out loud, but isn't someone going to benefit greatly by becoming the financial center of the EU? 

Wouldn't Germany be the most likely benefactor? Long term, wouldn't that make an investment into German banks a good investment?

 
Played a hunch after reading fantasycurse's DWTI post yesterday. 

Bought at $70.87 yesterday.  Sold at $77.89 this morning.  

I could get used to this. 

 
Shutout said:
Played a hunch after reading fantasycurse's DWTI post yesterday. 

Bought at $70.87 yesterday.  Sold at $77.89 this morning.  

I could get used to this. 
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Probably the worst thing that could happen to you. This will now give you a false sense security.

You played the riskiest stuff imaginable on a hunch during a critical time and scored a 10% win. I can assure you, that isn't the norm and you should walk away happy to not be parted from your money.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Probably the worst thing that could happen to you. This will now give you a false sense security.

You played the riskiest stuff imaginable on a hunch during a critical time and scored a 10% win. I can assure you, that isn't the norm and you should walk away happy to not be parted from your money.
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That's what my wife said more or less. She HATES the idea of day trading and the stock market in general. She calls it the New York casino.  

I know I'm over my head and got lucky and it's not my typical behavior but I said what the heck and did it. But I truly appreciate the reality check.  I needed it. 

 
Has anyone here had experience with switching brokerage firms to take advantage of incentive offers for first time depositers?

Is there a way I can leverage/threaten to leave my current brokerage account firm (TD Ameritrade) and try to get an incentive to stay?  I'd like to make a large deposit today, but I've been out of free trades for a year now.

How much of a hassle is this?  Feasible?  Any experiences appreciated.

 
John Bender said:
Has anyone here had experience with switching brokerage firms to take advantage of incentive offers for first time depositers?

Is there a way I can leverage/threaten to leave my current brokerage account firm (TD Ameritrade) and try to get an incentive to stay?  I'd like to make a large deposit today, but I've been out of free trades for a year now.

How much of a hassle is this?  Feasible?  Any experiences appreciated.
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I'm with Scottrade now and going to be calling them to set up an appointment because I want business.  If they can't give me a slice, I'm going to probably move to Robinhood.  $0 trades.

I moved to Scottrade from another brokerage many years ago and it was a piece of cake.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
I'm with Scottrade now and going to be calling them to set up an appointment because I want business.  If they can't give me a slice, I'm going to probably move to Robinhood.  $0 trades.

I moved to Scottrade from another brokerage many years ago and it was a piece of cake.
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Interesting. No desktop application is a little odd to me. I don't use an iPad or phone to trade because I like to have 2 screens up and the whole deal.  (at least that's what the review I read said).

Can find the research on my own - I hardly pay attention to the Ameritrade "Trade Tools" anyway and use my own research.

 
Only nibbling today with the following high quality dividend stocks (staples and defensive to boot)

DEO

NGG

VOD

BUD

If your feeling a little saucy add HSBC and BP today as well.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Speculation on this selloff carrying into next week, or more likely a one day event? 
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Won't pretend to know or take a guess at predicting but to me, when you have these types of events, you just hope that the markets don't devolve into a panic. Today's results are manageable. Oddly enough, if this vote took place a week later, I bet you would have seen a bit of a bigger selloff. Markets hate Monday holidays. 

 
Think we sell off in the last hour, 700 point DJIA close, random guess. 

Everything my FA has is holding up okay I guess, with the exception of financials which are getting taking to wood shed.

 
Oh yea, 401k def smashed... I've got a decent amount of international exposure in there.

Might have to take a look over the weekend and get ready to rebalance.

 
Did some numbers, oil plays up about $9k on the month of June, but mother####er, this one stings real bad!

The problem with running so well (and honestly, out of trading oil almost every day this month, I think I had two losing days in total) is getting arrogant and cocky with it. I went aggressively thinking this was easy money to be made overnight, just absolutely silly. I'm sure others here have gone on streaks of picking winner after winner and then getting a little careless or arrogant. 

The markets (themselves included) lulled the world into a false sense of security that there was no way Britain would leave. I didn't just take the hook, I swallowed the rod. Can't complain about the month and I'll take this net every month happily if I could, but I def need this weekend to reflect on the aggressive stupid play. Could've been a phenomenal month and my feeling of invincibility overtook the rational part of my thinking. 

Lesson to be learned here, need to make sure it sticks. 

 
lod001 said:
Some dude with Liz Claman: '$150 Billion worth of stock has to be sold within the next 3 days.' :popcorn:

Everyone needs to hold out. 
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Put me in the camp that says this isn't just today. SIdelined for now, waiting to see how things shake out. 

VIX exploded today.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Put me in the camp that says this isn't just today. SIdelined for now, waiting to see how things shake out. 

VIX exploded today.
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That's what I am keeping my eye on as far as when I think it's time to get back in (currently 100% cash as of June 9th).

Liz Claman has some really big juggs.

 
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kinda glad I waited to rebalance as I was underweight internationally, going to look at this as an opportunity to rebalance at a better rate. 

But then, that just means instead of being down 7% (VEU), I'm only down 2-3% (VIG/VTV).  Still, losing more in one day than I make in two months still  :hangover:  (I know, it's not really lost...)

 
Down 610 DJIA, small rally down to like 490 in the last hour shut down with a sell off into close for the last 5 minutes to lose an extra 120 points... Doesn't instill confidence. 

 
Bunch of moneyed elites got caught with their pants down, unprepared for the lower class suddenly deciding to revolt. So they need to cover their positions today, fearful that the graft and corruption that has kept them on top for so long will soon be found out.

Don't worry, a whole new set of bureaucrats will soon figure out how to use the Brexit to their advantage and start taking over. Then the Dow will just pump right back up.

Don't fear that this now means there's no more money to be made anywhere. That's just foolish.

 
Philo said:
Bunch of moneyed elites got caught with their pants down, unprepared for the lower class suddenly deciding to revolt. So they need to cover their positions today, fearful that the graft and corruption that has kept them on top for so long will soon be found out.

Don't worry, a whole new set of bureaucrats will soon figure out how to use the Brexit to their advantage and start taking over. Then the Dow will just pump right back up.

Don't fear that this now means there's no more money to be made anywhere. That's just foolish.
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So, yes on the tea?

 
Someone check my thinking, given impacts on Brexit:

long on gold next week and shorting Apple and Google for two or three days.  

I scared myself off shorting oil next week from my early post.  Was so blind lucky I am betting I'd better stay away.  

 
Shutout said:
Someone check my thinking, given impacts on Brexit:

long on gold next week and shorting Apple and Google for two or three days.  

I scared myself off shorting oil next week from my early post.  Was so blind lucky I am betting I'd better stay away.  
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If you're shorting something, why short what are prob viewed as the two safest stocks on the market? You'd want to short something that is viewed as a risky asset, something like Tesla. 

FTR, I'm not saying to short Tesla, just giving an example.

 
Had a call with our FA earlier. I hate them bc on days like today they're impossible to get a hold of, obviously every single client is calling, so I kinda get it, but whatever.

Anyways, strongly against his recommendation, I think I'm moving to all cash. The plays I post in here are my eTrade, mainly for short term or lately day trades.

I think this move to cash is for a decent amount of time too. I just don't see the upside, I don't think it's there. I see the downside, Brexit gives me the first actual thing I could put my finger on and say this can lead to our next economic crisis. I think they're first to go, I think others will follow in the next 12-24 months. This could lead to the collapse of the EU. Accompany that with anemic global growth, rates that are already on the floor leaving the central banks with no tools outside of QE, and I can see a crisis unfolding in 2 years or so. 

We also haven't had an 87, 2001, or 2007-2009 in a while, within a year or two, I think it's brewing.

I haven't made a final decision on this, but the upside versus downside seems risk off IMO. Say the DJIA can somehow rally to 20k in two years and then collapse to like 13k or 10k, even with dividends collecting, I think I'm better on the sidelines and just avoiding it for my long term stuff.

401k still undecided, but might heavily reallocate to bonds for the next 12-24 months.

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Had a call with our FA earlier. I hate them bc on days like today they're impossible to get a hold of, obviously every single client is calling, so I kinda get it, but whatever.

Anyways, strongly against his recommendation, I think I'm moving to all cash. The plays I post in here are my eTrade, mainly for short term or lately day trades.

I think this move to cash is for a decent amount of time too. I just don't see the upside, I don't think it's there. I see the downside, Brexit gives me the first actual thing I could put my finger on and say this can lead to our next economic crisis. I think they're first to go, I think others will follow in the next 12-24 months. This could lead to the collapse of the EU. Accompany that with anemic global growth, rates that are already on the floor leaving the central banks with no tools outside of QE, and I can see a crisis unfolding in 2 years or so. 

We also haven't had an 87, 2001, or 2007-2009 in a while, within a year or two, I think it's brewing.

I haven't made a final decision on this, but the upside versus downside seems risk off IMO. Say the DJIA can somehow rally to 20k in two years and then collapse to like 13k or 10k, even with dividends collecting, I think I'm better on the sidelines and just avoiding it for my long term stuff.

401k still undecided, but might heavily reallocate to bonds for the next 12-24 months.
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Definitely a tough market to invest in right now.  There are a lot of risks now with Europe,  oil, future rate hikes, and upcoming election.  One reason for optimism is that almost everyone is negative and equity outflows have been off the charts.  When bearish levels have been this high in the past the average equity return over the next 12 months has been double digits.

All that being said, you have to do what you are comfortable with.  My first question for people who want to go to all cash is what will be the trigger to get back invested?  If it goes up most just stay on the sidelines.   If it goes down they get more scared and will never get back in.  Not saying this about you, just general observations.

 
I reallocated a few weeks back, so I won't be making any changes at this time. The losses I did take weren't too bad. Wife's TSP took the worst hit, the small percentage of individual stocks I own were a close second. There was some run up over the last week due to Brexit speculation. Comparing balances from 3 weeks ago to today, I guess it could have been a lot worse. With this happening on Friday, hopefully it gives everyone time to evaluate before they act. 

I'm 10+ years away from needing any of this money. Will continue to invest 15-20% of our income monthly. Hopefully slow and steady still wins the race.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Had a call with our FA earlier. I hate them bc on days like today they're impossible to get a hold of, obviously every single client is calling, so I kinda get it, but whatever.

Anyways, strongly against his recommendation, I think I'm moving to all cash. The plays I post in here are my eTrade, mainly for short term or lately day trades.

I think this move to cash is for a decent amount of time too. I just don't see the upside, I don't think it's there. I see the downside, Brexit gives me the first actual thing I could put my finger on and say this can lead to our next economic crisis. I think they're first to go, I think others will follow in the next 12-24 months. This could lead to the collapse of the EU. Accompany that with anemic global growth, rates that are already on the floor leaving the central banks with no tools outside of QE, and I can see a crisis unfolding in 2 years or so. 

We also haven't had an 87, 2001, or 2007-2009 in a while, within a year or two, I think it's brewing.

I haven't made a final decision on this, but the upside versus downside seems risk off IMO. Say the DJIA can somehow rally to 20k in two years and then collapse to like 13k or 10k, even with dividends collecting, I think I'm better on the sidelines and just avoiding it for my long term stuff.

401k still undecided, but might heavily reallocate to bonds for the next 12-24 months.
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No he probably only has a handful of people calling like yourself and he's probably ready to kick you to the curb. Good luck day trading!

 
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