Didn't have time to read the last few weeks posts but does anyone have an opinion on Geo Group Inc $GEO?
I saw one hedge fund manager Micheal Berry dumped every one of his holdings except for that Prison system REIT. From what I've been researching I have mixed feelings. I'm trying to figure out his angle.
Only thing I can think of is he believes that after the run up to close to all time highs in the next 2-3 months that many are predicting and the ultimate crash late 2022/early 2023 mixed in with inflation that the crime rate will jump significantly but I still don't fully understand how that correlates to prison system real estate becoming more valuable. It's not like they will be new prisons immediately, if anything I'd think there would be a lot of early releases on minor offenses to make room for more violent criminals.
The stock was at a high of $33 5 years ago and tumbled to $5.57 18 months ago, it's since rebounded to $8.32 as of today.
Shares of
Geo Group (NYSE:
GEO) are at the center of attention after Michael Burry’s
Scion Asset Management reported the company as its
only second-quarter 13F holding, selling off all other stocks. Today is the deadline for institutional investors to file their Q2 13F, which provides retail investors with a snapshot of stocks institutions own as of June 30.
During the quarter, Burry dumped his stakes in 12 companies, including
Google (NASDAQ:
GOOG, NASDAQ:
GOOGL),
Booking (NASDAQ:
BKNG) and
Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:
BMY). His entire GEO stock stake of 501,630 shares was bought during the second quarter, worth about $3.3 million at the end of Q2. Meanwhile, Scion holds stocks in its 13F portfolio for an average of six quarters.
Geo operates as a real estate investment trust, or REIT, that specializes in prison properties and is the world’s second-largest private
“prison company.” Let’s get into the details.
Linkage
Michael Burry Bets Big on GEO Stock
Geo is active in three continents and operates more than 100 private prisons and mental health facilities. However, the U.S. is the company’s largest market and provides about 90% of its revenue. In addition, Geo’s revenue has shrunk at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 2% from 2018 to 2021.
During Q2, the company reported revenue of
$588.2 million, up 4% year-over-year (YOY) from $565.4 million. Furthermore, earnings per share (EPS) tallied in at
69 cents, beating the consensus forecast of 58 cents by about 19%. In the past four quarters, Geo has beaten EPS estimates every time.
Executive Chairman George Zoley added:
“Our diversified business units have delivered robust results over the last two years, which has allowed us to reduce our net recourse debt by approximately $375 million since the beginning of 2020, significantly deleveraging our balance sheet.”
Burry’s significant sales during Q2 echoes his bearish stance. At the end of Q1, Scion had
$165 million worth of 13F assets under management, compared with about $3.3 million as of the end of Q2.
In a
since-deleted tweet, Burry tweeted last Sunday, “Can’t shake that silly pre-Enron, pre-9/11, pre-WorldCom feeling.” These three events contributed to a 75% decline in the
Nasdaq between 2000 and 2002.
Finally, Burry may hold other stocks in his portfolio, as the 13F does not require disclosure of foreign stocks or short positions.
ETA: This may all be BS, he had 166 million in holdings as of 1Q 2022 and only has 3 million of Geo Group, so 163 million in assets were sold off.