What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Stock Thread (5 Viewers)

beef

Footballguy
That is all for banking and crypto chat for me today. Going to enjoy the market rally and hope it sticks while doing my compliance trainings :lol:
👍Appreciate you sharing. I like reading these finance stories and experiences.
 
Last edited:

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
I've been wondering. So much of the short term market moves are driven by headlines and perception right now. CPI is a measure of the prices during a particular month compared to the same month in the prior year.

The inflation stuff really started ramping up about a year ago if I recall. So given that CPI is measured against the same month in prior years, could we start to see the CPI number come down just because we're finally starting to compare today's prices against prices last year that were already inflated?

Essentially, we're moving into the period where we're going to have a bigger denominator in the CPI calculation, so the actual CPI number could start to "look" lower even though prices aren't coming down. I wonder if that could be a catalyst for the EOY rally that Todem has been anticipating.

Why don't I ever put my money where my mouth is on these things?
 

stbugs

Footballguy
I've been wondering. So much of the short term market moves are driven by headlines and perception right now. CPI is a measure of the prices during a particular month compared to the same month in the prior year.

The inflation stuff really started ramping up about a year ago if I recall. So given that CPI is measured against the same month in prior years, could we start to see the CPI number come down just because we're finally starting to compare today's prices against prices last year that were already inflated?

Essentially, we're moving into the period where we're going to have a bigger denominator in the CPI calculation, so the actual CPI number could start to "look" lower even though prices aren't coming down. I wonder if that could be a catalyst for the EOY rally that Todem has been anticipating.

Why don't I ever put my money where my mouth is on these things?
I don’t think it was a math issue that kicked off today. It was the fact that for the first time in a while the numbers were better than expected. Every reading the past few months was worse than expected.
 

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
I've been wondering. So much of the short term market moves are driven by headlines and perception right now. CPI is a measure of the prices during a particular month compared to the same month in the prior year.

The inflation stuff really started ramping up about a year ago if I recall. So given that CPI is measured against the same month in prior years, could we start to see the CPI number come down just because we're finally starting to compare today's prices against prices last year that were already inflated?

Essentially, we're moving into the period where we're going to have a bigger denominator in the CPI calculation, so the actual CPI number could start to "look" lower even though prices aren't coming down. I wonder if that could be a catalyst for the EOY rally that Todem has been anticipating.

Why don't I ever put my money where my mouth is on these things?
I don’t think it was a math issue that kicked off today. It was the fact that for the first time in a while the numbers were better than expected. Every reading the past few months was worse than expected.

I suppose. Inflation was still up 0.4% month over month though. Inflation was still up from our already super inflated numbers. We're a long ways from a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk getting cheaper, much less getting anywhere near where it was priced a year ago. But last October, which this month's CPI is comparing against, was the CPI report that really shocked everyone and gave us our first big shocking down day. So it kinda makes sense that when we're finally comparing to a denominator that was shockingly high, the same consistent increase we've been having on the numerator would give us a number that looks surprisingly low.
 

Desert_Power

Footballguy
I've been wondering. So much of the short term market moves are driven by headlines and perception right now. CPI is a measure of the prices during a particular month compared to the same month in the prior year.

The inflation stuff really started ramping up about a year ago if I recall. So given that CPI is measured against the same month in prior years, could we start to see the CPI number come down just because we're finally starting to compare today's prices against prices last year that were already inflated?

Essentially, we're moving into the period where we're going to have a bigger denominator in the CPI calculation, so the actual CPI number could start to "look" lower even though prices aren't coming down. I wonder if that could be a catalyst for the EOY rally that Todem has been anticipating.

Why don't I ever put my money where my mouth is on these things?
I don’t think it was a math issue that kicked off today. It was the fact that for the first time in a while the numbers were better than expected. Every reading the past few months was worse than expected.

I suppose. Inflation was still up 0.4% month over month though. Inflation was still up from our already super inflated numbers. We're a long ways from a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk getting cheaper, much less getting anywhere near where it was priced a year ago. But last October, which this month's CPI is comparing against, was the CPI report that really shocked everyone and gave us our first big shocking down day. So it kinda makes sense that when we're finally comparing to a denominator that was shockingly high, the same consistent increase we've been having on the numerator would give us a number that looks surprisingly low.
I think it is pretty unlikely for goods like these to decrease, even in a low inflation environment. The deflationary weight of technology in many other goods and services will probably be re-exerted though. Eventually rental income used in the CPI numbers will join the negative prints. Still, I think there are a lot of supply bottlenecks and fragility in the system that I wouldn't be so comfortable about the inflation outlook.
 

stbugs

Footballguy
I've been wondering. So much of the short term market moves are driven by headlines and perception right now. CPI is a measure of the prices during a particular month compared to the same month in the prior year.

The inflation stuff really started ramping up about a year ago if I recall. So given that CPI is measured against the same month in prior years, could we start to see the CPI number come down just because we're finally starting to compare today's prices against prices last year that were already inflated?

Essentially, we're moving into the period where we're going to have a bigger denominator in the CPI calculation, so the actual CPI number could start to "look" lower even though prices aren't coming down. I wonder if that could be a catalyst for the EOY rally that Todem has been anticipating.

Why don't I ever put my money where my mouth is on these things?
I don’t think it was a math issue that kicked off today. It was the fact that for the first time in a while the numbers were better than expected. Every reading the past few months was worse than expected.

I suppose. Inflation was still up 0.4% month over month though. Inflation was still up from our already super inflated numbers. We're a long ways from a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk getting cheaper, much less getting anywhere near where it was priced a year ago. But last October, which this month's CPI is comparing against, was the CPI report that really shocked everyone and gave us our first big shocking down day. So it kinda makes sense that when we're finally comparing to a denominator that was shockingly high, the same consistent increase we've been having on the numerator would give us a number that looks surprisingly low.
Right but 0.5% was expected and 7.9% instead of 7.7%.
 

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
I've been wondering. So much of the short term market moves are driven by headlines and perception right now. CPI is a measure of the prices during a particular month compared to the same month in the prior year.

The inflation stuff really started ramping up about a year ago if I recall. So given that CPI is measured against the same month in prior years, could we start to see the CPI number come down just because we're finally starting to compare today's prices against prices last year that were already inflated?

Essentially, we're moving into the period where we're going to have a bigger denominator in the CPI calculation, so the actual CPI number could start to "look" lower even though prices aren't coming down. I wonder if that could be a catalyst for the EOY rally that Todem has been anticipating.

Why don't I ever put my money where my mouth is on these things?
I don’t think it was a math issue that kicked off today. It was the fact that for the first time in a while the numbers were better than expected. Every reading the past few months was worse than expected.

I suppose. Inflation was still up 0.4% month over month though. Inflation was still up from our already super inflated numbers. We're a long ways from a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk getting cheaper, much less getting anywhere near where it was priced a year ago. But last October, which this month's CPI is comparing against, was the CPI report that really shocked everyone and gave us our first big shocking down day. So it kinda makes sense that when we're finally comparing to a denominator that was shockingly high, the same consistent increase we've been having on the numerator would give us a number that looks surprisingly low.
I think it is pretty unlikely for goods like these to decrease, even in a low inflation environment. The deflationary weight of technology in many other goods and services will probably be re-exerted though. Eventually rental income used in the CPI numbers will join the negative prints. Still, I think there are a lot of supply bottlenecks and fragility in the system that I wouldn't be so comfortable about the inflation outlook.

Are there still major supply chain issues?

It does kind of blow my mind that the price of Apples and milk just keep going up even as the price of fuel has gone down. And then, I'm not sure what the rest of the country is like, but here out west you can barely drive past an apple farm or dairy farm that doesn't have a brand new $5M mansion sitting on it or being built.
 

beef

Footballguy
$7100 gain today from SOXL in my play money account will go down as one of my best single stock/ETF daily gains. Only other recent stock/ETFs I remember doing really good for me in a single day was one of the CYDY rallies (because I had so many shares) and TVIX during one of those disastrous COVID crash days.
 
Last edited:

ghostguy123

Footballguy
$7100 gain today from SOXL in my play money account will go down as maybe my best single stock/ETF daily gain ever. Only other single stock/ETFs I remember doing that good for me in a single day was one of the CYDY rallies (because I had so many shares) and TVIX during one of those disastrous COVID crash days.
Dont remind me about CYDY. When it hit $10 I was on my way home and was gonna sell it all. Got home and it was 4 bucks. Had like 1000 shares. Small potatoes but ugh
 

beef

Footballguy
$7100 gain today from SOXL in my play money account will go down as maybe my best single stock/ETF daily gain ever. Only other single stock/ETFs I remember doing that good for me in a single day was one of the CYDY rallies (because I had so many shares) and TVIX during one of those disastrous COVID crash days.
Dont remind me about CYDY. When it hit $10 I was on my way home and was gonna sell it all. Got home and it was 4 bucks. Had like 1000 shares. Small potatoes but ugh
Yeah man, that was the day. I was at the dentist sitting in the chair when I placed the sell order. I had to go back and look, and that was a better day than today.
 

Sand

Footballguy
$7100 gain today from SOXL in my play money account will go down as maybe my best single stock/ETF daily gain ever. Only other single stock/ETFs I remember doing that good for me in a single day was one of the CYDY rallies (because I had so many shares) and TVIX during one of those disastrous COVID crash days.
Dont remind me about CYDY. When it hit $10 I was on my way home and was gonna sell it all. Got home and it was 4 bucks. Had like 1000 shares. Small potatoes but ugh
Yeah man, that was the day. I was at the dentist sitting in the chair when I placed the sell order. I had to go back and look, and that was a better day than today.
On that day I hit 10x and decided to take some off. And took 10% or so off the top. Should have taken 90%. But in the end I did ok overall, but that really did suck.
 

Rich Conway

Footballguy
Wondering if someone can explain this to me like I'm a complete novice. I'm looking at a Yahoo stock price page for Ford (F) and it says that the Forward Dividend & Yield is 0.60 (4.51%) and Ex-Dividend Date is Nov 14, 2022.

Does this mean that Ford will pay 60 cents per share to all stockholders on Nov 14? That is, if I bought 100 shares on Nov 11 (Friday), they'll pay me $60 on Nov 14, and I could sell the 100 shares on Nov 15 without losing the dividend?
 
Wondering if someone can explain this to me like I'm a complete novice. I'm looking at a Yahoo stock price page for Ford (F) and it says that the Forward Dividend & Yield is 0.60 (4.51%) and Ex-Dividend Date is Nov 14, 2022.

Does this mean that Ford will pay 60 cents per share to all stockholders on Nov 14? That is, if I bought 100 shares on Nov 11 (Friday), they'll pay me $60 on Nov 14, and I could sell the 100 shares on Nov 15 without losing the dividend?
No. You would get 15 cents per share, paid on Nov. 30
You can sell anytime after ex-dividend date and get it though.
 

beef

Footballguy
Wondering if someone can explain this to me like I'm a complete novice. I'm looking at a Yahoo stock price page for Ford (F) and it says that the Forward Dividend & Yield is 0.60 (4.51%) and Ex-Dividend Date is Nov 14, 2022.

Does this mean that Ford will pay 60 cents per share to all stockholders on Nov 14? That is, if I bought 100 shares on Nov 11 (Friday), they'll pay me $60 on Nov 14, and I could sell the 100 shares on Nov 15 without losing the dividend?
The ex-dividend date is the date in which the stocks are traded without the value of the dividend. Think of it as the start of the next/future potential dividend cycle. Also, that yield is for the year, not quarter, so I'd be 15 cents per share.

So if you want to collect the dividend you need to own the stock BEFORE the ex-dividend date.
 

nysfl2

Footballguy
I don't believe that we've reached the end of the tunnel, but the last couple days have certainly been a lot more fun than most of the rest of the year
 

Caveman33

Footballguy
I think it might be a good time to buy some puts. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
The Fear and Greed indicator seems to back test well and it's signaling a decline ahead. The PPI report for October comes out before market on Tuesday so I want to buy puts early Monday. (Should have planned ahead and bought today). IV looks relatively low on the indexes, below 30 on QQQ, so straddling would likely be profitable but I want to gamble on puts.
 

Sand

Footballguy
I think it might be a good time to buy some puts. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
The Fear and Greed indicator seems to back test well and it's signaling a decline ahead. The PPI report for October comes out before market on Tuesday so I want to buy puts early Monday. (Should have planned ahead and bought today). IV looks relatively low on the indexes, below 30 on QQQ, so straddling would likely be profitable but I want to gamble on puts.
I dismiss the thought that we're in greed territory. That's crazy talk. Still, in this environment, puts are probably favored to win than calls.
 

Caveman33

Footballguy
I think it might be a good time to buy some puts. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
The Fear and Greed indicator seems to back test well and it's signaling a decline ahead. The PPI report for October comes out before market on Tuesday so I want to buy puts early Monday. (Should have planned ahead and bought today). IV looks relatively low on the indexes, below 30 on QQQ, so straddling would likely be profitable but I want to gamble on puts.
I dismiss the thought that we're in greed territory. That's crazy talk. Still, in this environment, puts are probably favored to win than calls.
It looks like they use 7 indicators to determine the current greed level of 66. There is certainly room for it to go higher. Also, it looks like the S&P is above it's 125 MA so I'm not sure why that one is marked as Fear. The put/call ratio is still higher than I would like. Maybe I should wait a week before buying puts. Supposedly, there is a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting to enter the market. And I don't think PPI has had a huge impact in the past. It seems reasonable to think this current rally will continue. But the recent crypto meltdown didn't seem to slow the bull last week. Maybe it will create some ripple effects this week. Also, all the people/algos who bought last week may be quick to secure profits if the trend turns. So I'm thinking that if QQQ is still around $288 Monday morning then the 11/18 QQQ $280 puts will be about $1.00 and then QQQ will dip to $282 by Tuesday at which point, I can sell for more than a double or sell $278 puts and secure 80% profit with potential for more. Definitely want to get more than 100% profit because there is probably atleast a 50% chance I end with $0.
 

pecorino

Footballguy
I was thinking this morning about how to play the housing market which is suffering from higher rates and higher prices. Not sure what to buy or sell to profit off this trend which probably will last months if not years. Saw this article with the same premise. So how do FBGs make fat stacks on another housing correction?

Bubble?
 

Bogart

Footballguy
Bought a little bit of DWAC, just because I think it will spike up Tues/Wed if/when an announcement is made by Trump about running. Anything above double and I sell. Still think this thing hits zero (or $10.20 a share during liquidation).
 

Caveman33

Footballguy
Bought a little bit of DWAC, just because I think it will spike up Tues/Wed if/when an announcement is made by Trump about running. Anything above double and I sell. Still think this thing hits zero (or $10.20 a share during liquidation).
Did the mid-term election cause the jump from 17 to 29? Dang, everything seems so obvious in retrospect.

My short term outlook on the market is turning bullish.
 

KGB

Footballguy
Bought a little bit of DWAC, just because I think it will spike up Tues/Wed if/when an announcement is made by Trump about running. Anything above double and I sell. Still think this thing hits zero (or $10.20 a share during liquidation).
Did you get in before the pump? If so, nice!!!
 

Bogart

Footballguy
Bought a little bit of DWAC, just because I think it will spike up Tues/Wed if/when an announcement is made by Trump about running. Anything above double and I sell. Still think this thing hits zero (or $10.20 a share during liquidation).
Did the mid-term election cause the jump from 17 to 29? Dang, everything seems so obvious in retrospect.

My short term outlook on the market is turning bullish.

This stock is so stupid it's impossible to tell what causes the movement. Right now it's doomsayers about Twitter and the potential Trump announcement tonight that has it pushed up. The product is still horrible, getting less users daily, and no signs of making any money. The ads they are running are cringe at best. Complete scams at worst.

Bought a little bit of DWAC, just because I think it will spike up Tues/Wed if/when an announcement is made by Trump about running. Anything above double and I sell. Still think this thing hits zero (or $10.20 a share during liquidation).
Did you get in before the pump? If so, nice!!!

I wish I had gotten in at the $16.50 price that was staring us in the face for a month, but did get in for low 20s.
 
  • Like
Reactions: KGB

beef

Footballguy
Bought a little bit of DWAC, just because I think it will spike up Tues/Wed if/when an announcement is made by Trump about running. Anything above double and I sell. Still think this thing hits zero (or $10.20 a share during liquidation).
Did the mid-term election cause the jump from 17 to 29? Dang, everything seems so obvious in retrospect.

My short term outlook on the market is turning bullish.

This stock is so stupid it's impossible to tell what causes the movement. Right now it's doomsayers about Twitter and the potential Trump announcement tonight that has it pushed up. The product is still horrible, getting less users daily, and no signs of making any money. The ads they are running are cringe at best. Complete scams at worst.

Bought a little bit of DWAC, just because I think it will spike up Tues/Wed if/when an announcement is made by Trump about running. Anything above double and I sell. Still think this thing hits zero (or $10.20 a share during liquidation).
Did you get in before the pump? If so, nice!!!

I wish I had gotten in at the $16.50 price that was staring us in the face for a month, but did get in for low 20s.
Think I'd rather have my money in FTX than this one.
 

SFBayDuck

Footballguy
$UWMC on a tear, dipped under $3.00 and was $3.05 on 11/3, now at $4.20. Good thing I didn't pull the trigger and buy more when it hit sub-$3.00 and the yield crossed over 13%, which I thought about several times.

I'm really tempted to book the 19% gain in META (Roth account) and redeploy that elsewhere, although I know @Todem is a fan long term.

And hi $SE! Only down 54% on that one now!
 

ChiefD

Footballguy
$UWMC on a tear, dipped under $3.00 and was $3.05 on 11/3, now at $4.20. Good thing I didn't pull the trigger and buy more when it hit sub-$3.00 and the yield crossed over 13%, which I thought about several times.

I'm really tempted to book the 19% gain in META (Roth account) and redeploy that elsewhere, although I know @Todem is a fan long term.

And hi $SE! Only down 54% on that one now!
Yeah, it's nice to see UWMC keep moving. I bought some more recently to lower my cost basis.
 

Bogart

Footballguy
Bought a little bit of DWAC, just because I think it will spike up Tues/Wed if/when an announcement is made by Trump about running. Anything above double and I sell. Still think this thing hits zero (or $10.20 a share during liquidation).
Did the mid-term election cause the jump from 17 to 29? Dang, everything seems so obvious in retrospect.

My short term outlook on the market is turning bullish.

This stock is so stupid it's impossible to tell what causes the movement. Right now it's doomsayers about Twitter and the potential Trump announcement tonight that has it pushed up. The product is still horrible, getting less users daily, and no signs of making any money. The ads they are running are cringe at best. Complete scams at worst.

Bought a little bit of DWAC, just because I think it will spike up Tues/Wed if/when an announcement is made by Trump about running. Anything above double and I sell. Still think this thing hits zero (or $10.20 a share during liquidation).
Did you get in before the pump? If so, nice!!!

I wish I had gotten in at the $16.50 price that was staring us in the face for a month, but did get in for low 20s.
Think I'd rather have my money in FTX than this one.

If this thing hit zero today, I would probably be more happy than if it doubled to be honest. It's like your favorite team in the Super Bowl and you bet on the other team. Win/lose either way.
 

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
$UWMC on a tear, dipped under $3.00 and was $3.05 on 11/3, now at $4.20. Good thing I didn't pull the trigger and buy more when it hit sub-$3.00 and the yield crossed over 13%, which I thought about several times.

I'm really tempted to book the 19% gain in META (Roth account) and redeploy that elsewhere, although I know @Todem is a fan long term.

And hi $SE! Only down 54% on that one now!

Was planning on buying some. Didn't pay attention to their earnings date. Went to buy and it was up 25% on the day already (earnings the night before). Whoops.
 

General Malaise

Poop Lord
Seeing this news blurb, anybody else? Markets coming in fast....

At least two dead after Russian missiles land in NATO state Poland on Ukraine border​

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top