The General
Footballguy
How we feeling about Google tonight? Then Apple, Microsoft in two days. Rocket ships to the moon?!!?
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Stock Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
McBokonon
Footballguy
Don’t forget thread favorite - SNAP
The General
Footballguy
Somehow I have avoided this one!
McBokonon
Footballguy
Somehow I have avoided this one!
I think most of us have but we like to watch!
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I am very bearish on Google. Their AI sucks and for the first time in basically ever their core business, search, that funds all their other crappy businesses they can't capitalize on is actually showing signs that it may be at risk.
It's much easier/faster to ask an LLM a question than to google it and try to sift through the results. I wonder how long before more people catch on to that, and a narrative develops (as it's already starting to).
Both of which mean it will probably crush earnings and be up 20%.
It's much easier/faster to ask an LLM a question than to google it and try to sift through the results. I wonder how long before more people catch on to that, and a narrative develops (as it's already starting to).
Both of which mean it will probably crush earnings and be up 20%.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Somehow I have avoided this one!
I think most of us have but we like to watch!
I'm on that ride, but with just a small amount - actually made some money on the other half I initially bought. Fully expecting a 20% move. In what direction? <Nate Bargatze> Nobody knows......</Nate Bargatze>
The General
Footballguy
so far so good!
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Yay GOOGL.
Boo FSLR.
Boo FSLR.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Just saw a take from a fund manager who said that was one of their best quarters/reports in 7-10 years. He wasn't some loudmouth either, the opposite really.
Lest we forget the concerns about Google -- from AI headwinds to legal stuff -- are priced in, imo. It doesn't trade at a price relative to its peers. For example, Apple is at about a 33 P/E. Alphabet sits at 22.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
I came here to ask about this UWMC dip. Yield back to 6%...
Would like to hear more from those that follow. I passively keep an eye on it, don't own any.
Would like to hear more from those that follow. I passively keep an eye on it, don't own any.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Seems to follow what people are projecting will happen with mortgage rates. When everyone knew the fed was going to lower rates, it ran up under the assumption that mortgage rates would follow. But now that rates are actually increasing again (7% mortgages?) it's getting hurt.
Yep, my thoughts too. Rates have been climbing like crazy since the Fed finally announced so UWMC has been headed in the opposite direction. This is also typically the slow time for the housing market going into the fall and winter. The hope for a catalyst would be rates start to go back down late in the year (hopefully after the election madness is settled soon) and into the Spring when the housing market heats back up. I am overweight on them as it is so haven't been adding more, just collecting my dividends (one earlier this month!)
steelerfan1
Footballguy
Are you an owner of this? Strong feelings one way or the other?
McBokonon
Footballguy
Yes and I'm bullish. My cost basis is in the 40's, though. If I didn't have any, I'd buy maybe 1/3 of what I would buy and wait and see if it gets down to 70. As it is, I added a little today and will also wait and see if it pulls back more.
McBokonon
Footballguy
$SMCI being pummeled. Their independent auditor resigned.
“we are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee’s representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management, and after concluding we can no longer provide the Audit Services in accordance with applicable law or professional obligations.”
Probably a good time to remember (or learn) that this was a dodgy company before they got pulled along in the AI frenzy. Wiki: “Supermicro settled with the SEC in August 2020 over violations in accounting practices between 2014 and 2017 by the company and its former chief financial officer, and agreed to pay $17.5 million in penalties. In 2018, the company was briefly delisted from the Nasdaq after delaying to file financial reports by nearly two years.”
Hindenburg shorted them earlier this year saying it seemed like they were doing it again and that they had brought in a lot of the people who did it the first time.
“we are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management's and the Audit Committee’s representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management, and after concluding we can no longer provide the Audit Services in accordance with applicable law or professional obligations.”
Probably a good time to remember (or learn) that this was a dodgy company before they got pulled along in the AI frenzy. Wiki: “Supermicro settled with the SEC in August 2020 over violations in accounting practices between 2014 and 2017 by the company and its former chief financial officer, and agreed to pay $17.5 million in penalties. In 2018, the company was briefly delisted from the Nasdaq after delaying to file financial reports by nearly two years.”
Hindenburg shorted them earlier this year saying it seemed like they were doing it again and that they had brought in a lot of the people who did it the first time.
Capella
Footballguy
Google is hopefully the money canary in the coal mine.AMZN running up the escalator into the quarter, which is a perfect setup for falling down the elevator shaft afterwards
Yeah, I plan to use some to pay for a project at our future lot and I’m wondering if it might be a smart win-win move to sell enough for that before earnings. I won’t mind missing some gains on what I sell because the rest will go up and I won’t lose if something not great pops up.AMZN running up the escalator into the quarter, which is a perfect setup for falling down the elevator shaft afterwards
With earnings, the mood that day overall can turn a good report ugly by picking that one bad thing and a good day can help ignore things like Google cloud overshadowed lower growth in Ads.
I also think that Amazon going last in the big guys takes a bit of luster out because you instantly get compared and it feels like everything has to be great.
Sand
Footballguy
Not submitting financials on time is the biggest of big red flags. Insta-sell for me if I owned it. Having your auditor call you out on hiding the red flag is the cherry on top.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Bouncing all the way back and now up slightly from the close before earnings.
The General
Footballguy
MSFT step up to the plate. Don't blow it!
Think Freddy Freeman not Aaron Judge.
Think Freddy Freeman not Aaron Judge.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yeah, this is painful. I sold a little at $170 so booked some LT gains but this isn't any fun today.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Didn't help the guy on CNBC yelling at me (seemingly), "it's PE is higher than NVIDIA's and it's not nearly as good a company. WHAT DID YOU EXPECT????"
Small position and I'm still up 40-50% on it, but it's in the Roth that I've been holding individual stocks in that I'm slowly selling and moving to index funds. So likely out of my portfolio shortly.
The General
Footballguy
Anyone own Reddit? Totally forgot I was going to buy some of this after the initial IPO.
Wonder if they will credit me.
Wonder if they will credit me.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Reddit dude was interviewed on Cramer yesterday. Yes, I know Cramer is a bad word but what the CEO had to say might interest you is all. I'm sure you could find it.
And lol @ your credit due.
The General
Footballguy
I really don’t use Reddit but whenever I have some rando question, when I google it a Reddit thread inevitably pops up and there is usually some decent advice I can sift out of it
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Since you said this is a 401K and not a trading/short-term account, what are you really trying to accomplish? Do you just want to take some risk off the table? Are you trying to time the market with the goal of getting back in at some point (if so, how will you know when to get back in)? What will you do if rates fall to 3% or 3.5%?
I think once you're within 10 years of retirement, it may make sense to de-risk a bit (depending on where you are vs your target amount), and within 5 years most people are doing so. So you're right in that range. But is your long term plan S&P and cash? Some people do like to go into retirement with 3-5 years of spending safely in cash (or CDs or short-term bonds), is that what you're looking to do?
I'd suggest coming up with an asset allocation you want to have when you get to retirement, and then come up with the plan to get there, ie gradually over the next 8 years or all at once at some point. Use a tool like Portfolio Visualizer to test out different allocations via Monte Carlo simulations - try your 70/30, compare it to 100% Large Cap (S&P), look at a standard 60/40, or play around with more diversified strategies.
One thing you will find is that over long enough periods of time (like 8 years and a 30+ year retirement), holding 20-30% in cash will absolutely reduce your safe withdrawal rate. Maybe that's fine for your situation (you have more than you'll need), but just be aware of that.
Just suggesting some things to think about. And if you want to chat retirement planning and asset allocation in the FFA, The "I want to retire soon" thread is a good place to do so!
Sand
Footballguy
Nothing wrong with this. Diversification is good for the soul.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Gross.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Trusting someone who settled with the SEC for financial fraud on the company he founded while the Twin Towers were still up is just not in my risk profile. I'll lose money in new ways. Glllll peas.
jwb
Footballguy
I bought a little day one but it was more of a token "I love Reddit so I'll own a little" position than anything. Of course now I wish I went in bigger, but I honestly thought that going public would ruin what made it special / unique. Still could be the case - we'll see.
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
Everything, wait!
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
Looks like a really good quarter for $MA this morning. Am I missing something? Thinking about adding on this dip.
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
I guess they're reiterating rather than increasing guidance. Biggest knock I can see.
Capella
Footballguy
Well maybe this will end up being good news!AMZN running up the escalator into the quarter, which is a perfect setup for falling down the elevator shaft afterwards
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
Toe dipped
Bossman
Footballguy
Also added some just now while it's on sale.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I didn’t end up selling anything yet. Would be nice to get above $200 again.
Sand
Footballguy
Had just enough for 1 more share. Bought it.
Sideshow Bob
Footballguy
Last of the big time spenders!
