Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Happy birthday
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Stock Thread (27 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
kevzilla
Footballguy
I sold one round lot of MP at the close, kept the other two. I was offered a third chance to de-risk this position a little, and finally hit the button. I only made $89 on that lot, and I only lowered my cost basis by 13%. But I'm done selling, with about 30% of my Little Orphan IRA ready to go shopping.
Texting my brother and dad to get into their accounts and see the biggest one-day gains of their lives.
Texting my brother and dad to get into their accounts and see the biggest one-day gains of their lives.
First 6 figure gain day for me
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
This was absolutely grift. In broad daylight. Right?Good call .............
I think it was either a trial run to see what would really happen.......or people got rich with insider info knowing the fake (mistaken??) announcement
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Either way, I had to go to work all week…..and next week……and the following week……Yeah, for sure. Just didn't have the stomach for it.
I have thoughts on the whole thing but I would get banned and I get too much entertainment here.
I will say part of my reasoning for staying out of it was the relative calmness tone of a lot of people in this thread. Lots of good stuff here and I really appreciate this place.
Riffraff
Footballguy
Stock Markets Are Tanking: Here’s How Retirees Can Stay Calm
The one thing that could make someone un-retire (or postpone retirement) is the stock market as most plans are usually tied to it somewhere/somehow.
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
I'm kicking myself for not pushing more cash into the market over the past week. I got some in, but to be honest, once the S&P dipped under 5K, I froze. I guess I caught the fear, even though I KNEW this was all a big smokescreen. ugh.
even more maddening is that I rebalanced my 401k about 3 months ago to be much more conservative due to uncertainty, with the plan to rebalance more aggressively when the time is right. if I would have rebalanced within the last 2 days like I thought of doing, I would have caught it just right. double ugh.
still not sure how I feel about this rally though. I think there is a non-zero chance that some more 'news' comes out over the next days/weeks allowing people to dump shares and lock in gains...
even more maddening is that I rebalanced my 401k about 3 months ago to be much more conservative due to uncertainty, with the plan to rebalance more aggressively when the time is right. if I would have rebalanced within the last 2 days like I thought of doing, I would have caught it just right. double ugh.
still not sure how I feel about this rally though. I think there is a non-zero chance that some more 'news' comes out over the next days/weeks allowing people to dump shares and lock in gains...
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Almost always the case. Getting out is the easy part, getting back in is much more difficult. It always seems like it’s going to go much lower. That said, I’m not convinced it’s up from here.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Still seems like the move you made three months ago probably paid off at least somewhat.
So where we stand now is a 90 day pause, with what is still an uncertain outcome.
I wish I woulda done what you did a while back, cause my 403b is still down probably 10-12% off the highs.
If we somehow have another rally or two and get back to that S&P of 6000 (which I don't see happening in the next 60-90 days but ya never know), I will more than likely swap it for much more conservative thing, probably money market.
As far as getting back in, I recall the COVID days where a few people recommended to put back like 20% for every drop (that's when I swapped out at 3000 and the S&P went down to like 2100, but I didn't get back in till like 2700. Lesson learned. If I ever do something like that again before a big market drop, I'll get back in rather than waiting for more of a drop.
Here's to hoping. Cheers!!
Rirruto
Footballguy
I hate being a bear. Mostly because I suck at it. I've got several orders for put contracts on the SP500 in. I fully acknowledge that the US government's trade policy right this second is better than it was 24 hours ago. No question. HOWEVER, 10% tariffs on most of the world and 125% tariffs on China is still awful. The euphoria of the "pause" has investors losing sight of the market IMO. We are overpriced.
Also, my opinion is the Fed rate cuts are priced in. My read of every statement from Powell and the rest is that we aren't really guaranteed cuts. I'm cool betting against a rate cut in the May meeting. I've laughed at more J-Pow memes than anyone. But he's done an amazing job. I think a "tariffs are inflationary by very definition, so we decline to cut rates" is actually more likely than not. I also think it would cause a market draw down.
My last short position was a small one on Japanese equities. That...did not work out. This is slightly bigger. It's hard making bets that one tweet can obliterate. But that's the market we are in now.
Also, my opinion is the Fed rate cuts are priced in. My read of every statement from Powell and the rest is that we aren't really guaranteed cuts. I'm cool betting against a rate cut in the May meeting. I've laughed at more J-Pow memes than anyone. But he's done an amazing job. I think a "tariffs are inflationary by very definition, so we decline to cut rates" is actually more likely than not. I also think it would cause a market draw down.
My last short position was a small one on Japanese equities. That...did not work out. This is slightly bigger. It's hard making bets that one tweet can obliterate. But that's the market we are in now.
Redwes25
Footballguy
I agree with this. Good day but we are still down 10 percent from highs and with basically trade done with China and across the board 10 percent tariffs and tariffs on cars. Are the worst aspect gone - yes but still lots of economic risks.
Of course really glad I was nibbling at QQQ last few days.
Sand
Footballguy
Eh - this is totally normal. Ignoring it and not doing anything rash is a victory.
Sand
Footballguy
Kevin O'Leary is a proponent of 400% tariffs. He has a point, though the pain to weather the negotiations would be hard.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I’m torn. I like the theory but I don’t like him.
Sand
Footballguy
Love him or hate him he has very strong, clear opinions and certainly isn't afraid of expressing them.
Texas Football
Footballguy
A little off topic from the highs and lows of the last few weeks/months and the uncertainty ahead...
Does anyone have an opinion on Coreweave. AI IPO a couple of weeks ago that can rent space/compute to the larger players. Backed in some way by Nvidia.
A really odd time to IPO, but here it is. I apologize if this was covered upthread, but man there are a lot of post to sift through.
My understanding is that they are spending more than Grok(or whatever the X ai is) on server builds...
I plan on researching this a bit more and I'll update if anyone is interested. I will buy a few shares tomorrow to have some skin in the game.
Just curious on general thoughts knowing full and well that everything is beyond volatile right now.
Does anyone have an opinion on Coreweave. AI IPO a couple of weeks ago that can rent space/compute to the larger players. Backed in some way by Nvidia.
A really odd time to IPO, but here it is. I apologize if this was covered upthread, but man there are a lot of post to sift through.
My understanding is that they are spending more than Grok(or whatever the X ai is) on server builds...
I plan on researching this a bit more and I'll update if anyone is interested. I will buy a few shares tomorrow to have some skin in the game.
Just curious on general thoughts knowing full and well that everything is beyond volatile right now.
fatness
Footballguy
It's a damn good one. I read it every day.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Unless you’re privy to the precise dates and timings of these announcements (as some undoubtedly are), simply holding positions and not panicking is probably a wise strategy. Picking individual winners is going to be about the comings and goings at country clubs, for example with NVIDIA:
Why Nvidia Stock Is Skyrocketing Today
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Can't even get 24 hours of feeling any sort of relief, can we.........
The Z Machine
Footballguy
feels like today is a selling day. Lock in profits to items bought on the way down or trim losses that feel like any minute could plummet again.
beef
Footballguy
That's what keeps him on air.
He is great on Shark Tank.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
My question is WHY do we need to "put China's head into the wall"? Wasn't the US benefitting from the system as it was 3 months ago?
This is why “Liberation Day” screamed as a moment to not simply hold. One could argue that we didn’t know the content of what would be said and so the SPY could go up or down by a bigger than usual swing. Even that allows for trading, an option straddle or just the VIX for instance. Or for anyone with conviction about the direction, a called shot going either long or short.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I saw this today and thought it was brilliant:
The best thing about index funds isn't their returns. It's their inability to make you feel stupid.
When the S&P 500 drops 20%, you blame the market.
When a stock you own drops 20%, you blame yourself.
Ego is the enemy of returns. Index funds remove it from the equation.
The best thing about index funds isn't their returns. It's their inability to make you feel stupid.
When the S&P 500 drops 20%, you blame the market.
When a stock you own drops 20%, you blame yourself.
Ego is the enemy of returns. Index funds remove it from the equation.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well, yesterday was fun at least.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
As far as I can keep up, the China tariffs are in place. The lazy "across the board" ones are in place at like 10 or 15% and I believe the ones between Canada and Mexico are too, but not so sure on those. The biggest, most impactful to consumers here are still there that I can tell with a little reprieve in the auto and appliance industries as the ones with Korea, Japan, etc have been paused.
Todem
Footballguy
Rebalancing and profit taking today.
I stand by what I said….3-4 months from now this flash crash (Tarriff Tantrum) will be in the rear view mirror.
And some other headlines will move markets…..by year end fundamentals will ultimately determine 2025’s total return.
beef
Footballguy
With all the QQQ and SPY options traded just before the announcement, and the Monday test run, I'm certain we'll see more days like it again.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
There is still a large increase on tariffs compared to prior (10% universal and 125% on China) that has us about to enter a recession....
NutterButter
Footballguy
It was needed. Reset my sanity. Although I have no intentions of selling, it was nice to have a good day.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Short-lived....
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Today seems like the market taking a breath and making an actual assessment of the past week. I took my profits yesterday.
Walmart pulling projections was a big deal. How are fundamentals going to rule if we don't have them?
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Back in SOXL at 10.00
GTC buy order in for more at 8.00
GTC buy order in for more at 8.00
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yeah but what about the three days before yesterday?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
This was known yesterday....
eighsse2
Footballguy
Oh absolutely, it's still a big negative trend, and we have a lot of ground to make up. But some seem to be feeling like yesterday was a big nothing. No clue what is going to happen. But yesterday was at least way better than today is bad ... Uhh, for now, that is.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hey, is someone able to prove that list again of the 2/3x S&P tickets for bear/bull again?
I can't seem to find them
Edit think I found them.
SPXS
SPXL
I can't seem to find them
Edit think I found them.
SPXS
SPXL
Last edited:
Wooderson
Fight The Power
Need to zoom out.
Unless you are day trading zoom out and look at your retirement account. Retirement accounts are made by longevity in the market.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Definitely agree, I'm nowhere near panic mode. Look at any all-time chart of any major index. There are painful times but it ultimately goes nowhere but up.
Sand
Footballguy
Totally IMO, but because they lie, cheat, and steal and have for a long time. Their state program to steal as much IP as possible has allowed them to be where they are now. They've done it with impunity. The government dumps product on the rest of the world to corner markets (state subsidized). Look at what we're seeing now with rare earths - they rape the earth, pollute it to produce cheap metal to drive out competitors, now are using that as a cudgel over the rest of the world.
They're basically 1 billion mobsters.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
In PFLT at 9.62. Deployed some cash, is now roughly 2% of my IRA. Already cratering lol. Wish I bought the other day at 9. Will likely buy same lot size if it does hit 9. Love this as a diversification tool, exposure to the credit market with a stellar dividend.
A bit harsh here, Sand. Seems the kool aid has made it's way through the American populace in sufficient manner.
Every business both in the U.S. and world wide does their best to reverse engineer (aka steal as much IP as possible).
To say that they state subsidize their population, well, I dare say the United States has done it's fair share as well.
Back to the stock market, a turn down was to be expected. The gains yesterday were oversized. And TBH, on just a temporary pause of the tariffs.
There is still a ton of uncertainty on earnings, and I think you're going to see a lot of companies posting good earnings this quarter and either a) pausing forward guidance or b) lowering estimates going forward. This is going to put more pressure on the stock market as well. No one knows what the effects of tariffs will be, both on the supply side and on margins.
Hopefully cooler heads prevail and we can work on a more definitive solution going forward as that will allow CFO's to try to calculate the effects and more effectively guide going forward. Without this, well, the stock market looks forwards, not backwards and it's foggy out there.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Calling an entire population mobsters does not seem very cool.
Sand
Footballguy
They tolerate the governance they have. But at he same time you're right, it's really not the people, it's the policy set that they live under.
Sparky Polastri
Footballguy
By now, American companies know what will happen / is expected to do business in China. They make no secrets about it. Maybe those companies need to choose better? If they do and all that revenue starts going away and being shifted to other places, perhaps China changes their approach. Or they don't and wither on the vine. This is not a defense of China in any form, shape or fashion. Just pointing out that there is a reason our companies still choose doing business in China knowing what they know.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
100%. Tariffs won't flow through to P&L until Q3. You'll see some small drops in operating margin in Q2 due to imports, but if companies front loaded deliveries before tariffs hit, they could avoid a lot of this pain in Q2.
