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Stock Thread (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Acme CEO
Footballguy
This is why it's hard to evaluate Apple for me. The days of 40%+ margins are long gone.
Android started the race to the bottom with cheap Chinese makers like Huwawei and Lenovo flooding the world with Droid versions that are 2 years old. Win8 and Nokia are finding success in the value, no contract market. BBRY made the mistake of introducing BB10 with only high end, premium devices and that killed any hope of traction. Once Apple releases the rumored i5C (or whatever their cheaper phone is called), you never see Apple touch their current margins again. Smartphones are being commoditized at a rapid rate. Eventually, the only meaningful differentiation left will be to switch an entire ecosystem.
On the other hand, APPL still sell billions worth of products every quarter, has the highest ecosystem loyalty rate, pays a decent dividend, and their PE and forward PE seem very reasonable.
optionmaven
Footballguy
I dusted one of these around the 430 level having just better than a double up(mistake in hindsight, but i stick to my gameplans usually). Gave me a free roll on the other. Thinking of selling the other today at the close (hit my number) and taking the money and running. Nary 4k in 5 weeks. We like these, especially when we've seen it done before(first time apple dipped below 400 it ran to 450 and hit a wall and retraced) to this point when i bought these. Seemed like an instant replay and it was. Now whats it gonna do?? Proceed with caution. Could easily see it ratchet up to 500 or a replay of the replay.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yeah, reverse 1-25 stock splits will do that...shorts scramble. Absent the split,t his thing would be trading around $1.
But, good news today on their centrifuge.
And if anybody owns Uranium One, get out. Now.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
They not getting all the approvals they need to take it private?
Acme CEO
Footballguy
So if this price is only being propped up by a short squeeze, shouldn't it drop back down once the shorts covered? In other words, maybe this is a great shorting opportunity if shares can be found?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Little more info?The stocked dropped by 50% after the reverse split (before this massive run up).
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yeah, good luck getting a borrow.
They DID get some good news about a centrifuge, so maybe this is also news driven.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Hey, if you think it's a legit play, play it. I think the company is a joke and think this run up is fishy.
I'm not making a play on it either way, just pointing out the size of the move to another poster. There's no way this is all due to short covering because of the reverse split though.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Some of the move was related to precisely that. I pointed out some good news related to their new centrifuge but that can't be all of what's happening. Again, absent the reverse split, this thing would be trading at a around one dollar.
Sure, some of it was, but this thing was up somewhere around 10X as of yesterdays close- that isn't only because of a reverse split. It went down by over 50% after the reverse split, which wouldn't make any sense if the split was such a huge factor for the run up, would it? They would have been covering right away.
You obviously know this, but it would be the same percentage move if you calculated it using pre-split numbers and it was trading at around $1 now. It's a huge frigging move, regardless of the price or the reason, that was my only reason for pointing it out.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Right, but the world doesn't talk about penny stocks making giant percentage moves. The reverse split made this thing stand out whereas before, it was completely ignored. Dollars attract more eyeballs than pennies. But yes, it's been a huge mover. It was down 33% today.
I still think short covering has been responsible for a lot of this move. Not all of it happened right away. Some might have gotten out early, some probably fought the ghost as long as they could before puking it. Short sellers are impossible to pigeonhole, they are all different. I know. I was with one for 8 years; one of the best ones in the biz (now retired). You could have had program traders and MO MO guys jumping in to fuel this along with short covering. You might have them selling now. You might have SOME shorts who CAN get borrows (we can't) reestablishing positions.
I also think SAC has been closing out positions, including their shorts, which might include rampant shorts in the Uranium sector as a whole. Entirely possible those guys - under redemption pressure - puked this one. I don't know that, but there is buzz that SAC has been liquidating/covering.
All this said, you are correct, this thing has been insane. It is a terrible, unprofitable company with heavy debt. I wouldn't put Sacamano's money in this, let alone mine.
Arid Filch
Footballguy
Really hoping for a beat from GRMN tomorrow. WMAR is a turd, I might sell for a loss. Both of these companies seem to have limited upside but I will roll the dice on GRMN.
Does anyone trade penny stocks? Know any good sites for reliable information on penny stocks?
Does anyone trade penny stocks? Know any good sites for reliable information on penny stocks?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
lmfao
At least he's talked you into the good ones too. I have this knack of my sharona.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
I sold my shares in Cameco (CCJ) and bought Energy Fuels (EFRFF). I'm still high on uranium stocks and Cameco is very solid but this one has the most potential to take off when uranium prices go up. It's trading well under book value ($135M market value vs. $180M in net assets). It owns the only uranium mill in the U.S. (this alone cost $150M to build) and has been approved to build a second one in CO. I bought it at .178 a couple days ago and while it just had a ~10% jump today I think it still has a long way to go.
Here's the CEO discussing the company and the power point presentation he discusses.
Here's the CEO discussing the company and the power point presentation he discusses.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Yeah, I sold UUU and kept EFRFF
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Sold mine Tuesday for another $3300 loss.
I bought 50k worth of VIMSX (1829 @ $27.33) and another 50K worth of VFINX to give me 485 @ $154.64.
General Malaise
Footballguy
There's been a LOT of bad with a mixture of some good. I deserve it.Bob Sacamano said:
General Malaise
Footballguy
That beats a bigger loss, which I firmly believe is coming in that name.
And look, nobody on this board has lost more in uranium over the years than me. My salary/bonus is tied to it, never mind my personal account/retirement.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I made enough on the initial runup to the UUU special dividend and especially on Neo that you get a bye in my eyes nearly forever. I wish I'd sold the rest of the MCP stock I got out of it, but that's on me.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm hanging on to MCP out of spite.
General Malaise
Footballguy
You held, right?Almost makes up for my horrendous uranium suggestions.
If they don't issue more stock, I can't imagine this thing remaining under $10 for much longer this year.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I don't blame you for anything, GB. I'm a big boy and made my own decisions. It just smarts after my stupid ####### AMZN bet.
But hey, I'm going to have taxes deductions for so long Zooks is going to be able to enjoy them.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Up about 120% and I'm not going anywhere. Considering putting my UUU money back there.You held, right?Almost makes up for my horrendous uranium suggestions.
If they don't issue more stock, I can't imagine this thing remaining under $10 for much longer this year.
Arid Filch
Footballguy
Looking for thoughts on CBRX Columbia Laboratories trading at $0.67/share.
11.36 P/E with forward P/E of 6.7. Assets of 36mm vs. Debt of 3.8mm. Market cap 58.7mm.
Earnings come out on the 7th. Today they announced a 1-8 reverse stock split set for the 9th.
What I have gathered is that CBRX's main, maybe only, moneymaker is Crinone, a fertility cream. The company has had many ups and downs, but mainly downs lately. The two biggest falls, Jan 2012 and Oct 2012, were related to the FDA rejecting its number 2 drug Prochieve. So Crinone appears to be all they have and they are not spending any money on research and development. Actavis sells Crinone in the U.S. For the past quarter they reported an increase in sales of their specialty brand of which Crinone is one. But they already have a stockpile so CBRX will only receive royalties which probably won't amount to much more than 1mm. Merck Serono sells Crinone in all other countries. I couldn't find any good information there. They operate under Merck KGaA who doesn't report until the 6th.
The biggest question mark or red flag is the 1-8 reverse split and the timing of it. I don't have enough experience to draw a good conclusion. I read that reverse splits rarely end well. One idea I've come across is that by raising the share price above $5 CBRX is marketing itself to mutual funds. I also wonder if the $5 threshold could relate to an acquisition or merger. Last quarter they disappointed with EPS of .01 when .03 was expected.
So, looking for input from the board. Mystery Achiever?
11.36 P/E with forward P/E of 6.7. Assets of 36mm vs. Debt of 3.8mm. Market cap 58.7mm.
Earnings come out on the 7th. Today they announced a 1-8 reverse stock split set for the 9th.
What I have gathered is that CBRX's main, maybe only, moneymaker is Crinone, a fertility cream. The company has had many ups and downs, but mainly downs lately. The two biggest falls, Jan 2012 and Oct 2012, were related to the FDA rejecting its number 2 drug Prochieve. So Crinone appears to be all they have and they are not spending any money on research and development. Actavis sells Crinone in the U.S. For the past quarter they reported an increase in sales of their specialty brand of which Crinone is one. But they already have a stockpile so CBRX will only receive royalties which probably won't amount to much more than 1mm. Merck Serono sells Crinone in all other countries. I couldn't find any good information there. They operate under Merck KGaA who doesn't report until the 6th.
The biggest question mark or red flag is the 1-8 reverse split and the timing of it. I don't have enough experience to draw a good conclusion. I read that reverse splits rarely end well. One idea I've come across is that by raising the share price above $5 CBRX is marketing itself to mutual funds. I also wonder if the $5 threshold could relate to an acquisition or merger. Last quarter they disappointed with EPS of .01 when .03 was expected.
So, looking for input from the board. Mystery Achiever?
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
A reverse split - or more accurately the need for one - is just the sign of a troubled situation. So that is why many don't work. Raising the stock price doesn't change the story. Buying a reverse-split stock requires believing that the company will rebound from whatever sent the stock into a nose dive.You'd have done fine to buy C after its reverse split. Listening to the earnings call may give you more info to determine if you feel this company can rebound. If you can't listen, Seeking Alpha gets a lot of companies' call transcripts.
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Arid Filch
Footballguy
But what if they surprise? I hate to miss a party so it is imperative that I get in before earnings.
Here is my portfolio and plan of action:
Hold AAPL. It is doing well, I believe it goes to 470 and I will keep raising stop limit.
Hold WMAR. This boat is sinking and it will probably get worse before better but I hate taking a loss. I swear I will sell at 11.40 though. Bought at 11.77.
Sell GRMN. I need to in order to make more trades but it appears it lost a dollar AH. That won't do, I need to sell in high 39s or it's a no go.
Hold NOK. Only about 1K invested. This is a long term hold, I have held it for over a year.
Assuming I sell GRMN or WMAR, plus the remaining free cash in my account, I will split between CBRX and ELP, a Brazilian utility company. PBR seems to be the preferred Brazilian company to invest in but I am going with ELP. Hopefully the whole country turns around.
I considered AWK. Over the last month it is lagging behind AWR and I expect it to catch up, should see 5-10% growth. However, I am still smarting from the fact that I held AWR for 3 long months, sold at break even, and then it rose 20% the next month. It soured me on the whole sector.
I tried to buy OLN at 23.5 but I missed. I will consider it again if it comes back down from 25.
I have more funds arriving on Friday which are tentatively earmarked for DR Horton. I looked at other homebuilders like Lennar but I am leaning towards DHI.
In the distant future, Oct or Nov, I will be looking at HDSN. Historically that has been a great time to buy.
As always, any feedback or alternative stock recommendations are appreciated.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Check out the volume in this one today. Normally trades ~100K shares a day. One buyer jumped in late in the trading today for 1MM shares.Up about 120% and I'm not going anywhere. Considering putting my UUU money back there.You held, right?Almost makes up for my horrendous uranium suggestions.
If they don't issue more stock, I can't imagine this thing remaining under $10 for much longer this year.
Drifter
Footballguy
Trucking company Swift (SWFT) bought Central Refrigerated today. The stock is flat to down because people are suspicious that CEO/Chairman of Swift, Jerry Moyes was the owner of privately held Central Refrigerated. I think there's a pretty easy 10-15% to be had there with an upside of around 25-30%
Acme CEO
Footballguy
Ok. Some may remember me from last July pimping Nokia. This is my honest progress so far.
I started to accumulate from last July to Dec, buying increments from $1.80 up to $3.50. I didn’t try to time the peak at $4.80, but managed to sell half on the way back down at about $4.25 for a good profit, and held the other half.
So I am here, at around the same time as last year, considering pushing all in on Nok again. IMO, Nokia is in a much better position than where they were last year, and could justify another double. They are looking better in terms of product line and pricing, ranging from a high end 41MP Lumia, to the downright economical 520 on no contract. Nokia is seeing much better point of sales support from their vendor partners; particularly ATT is finally starting to place Win8 products prominently at the front of their stores. Every Best Buy across the US will be installing a stand alone Microsoft store to push Win8 (This strategy was proven to be very successful by Samsung and was a key driver for their Galaxy S3 surge in 2012). The T Mobile 520 has been selling well via non traditional mobile channels like wal mart and HSN. Flooding the market with $99, no contract phone is the quickest way to increase Win8 market share.
Speaking of Win8. I know all the cool kids love to hate MSFT since they are the old behemoth of the tech world, but there is a reason that 95% of all corporations use Windows, Office, SQL and other MS enterprise products. As Nokia owns 85% of the Win8 phone market, a fractional percentage of those corporate users adopting Windows for mobile use will be reflected as exponential growth by Nok.
Adding to this, the recent completion of NSN acquisition is proving to be very favorable to NOK. On top of getting a cheap price for NSN at 1.7B transaction, Nokia will use NSN to issue 500M in bonds to make an 900M dividend payment to NOK. Meaning the final cost of the transaction will be half paid for by the acquired company itself. In addition, they will cut another 17% of their workforce to ensure they can maintain their margins. Revenue is expected to increase and we are waiting, any day now, on a huge China Mobile 600k radio base station contract as well as LTE contracts from 2 of the 3 largest carriers in Russia.
Management is making the right decisions and I feel this company and its 3 businesses are drastically undervalued.
My dilemma now is that I have a scenario envisioned for the next half year for this company, but how to play it? I’m holding half my earlier positions, and can either add more or possibly consider leverage with options.
I started to accumulate from last July to Dec, buying increments from $1.80 up to $3.50. I didn’t try to time the peak at $4.80, but managed to sell half on the way back down at about $4.25 for a good profit, and held the other half.
So I am here, at around the same time as last year, considering pushing all in on Nok again. IMO, Nokia is in a much better position than where they were last year, and could justify another double. They are looking better in terms of product line and pricing, ranging from a high end 41MP Lumia, to the downright economical 520 on no contract. Nokia is seeing much better point of sales support from their vendor partners; particularly ATT is finally starting to place Win8 products prominently at the front of their stores. Every Best Buy across the US will be installing a stand alone Microsoft store to push Win8 (This strategy was proven to be very successful by Samsung and was a key driver for their Galaxy S3 surge in 2012). The T Mobile 520 has been selling well via non traditional mobile channels like wal mart and HSN. Flooding the market with $99, no contract phone is the quickest way to increase Win8 market share.
Speaking of Win8. I know all the cool kids love to hate MSFT since they are the old behemoth of the tech world, but there is a reason that 95% of all corporations use Windows, Office, SQL and other MS enterprise products. As Nokia owns 85% of the Win8 phone market, a fractional percentage of those corporate users adopting Windows for mobile use will be reflected as exponential growth by Nok.
Adding to this, the recent completion of NSN acquisition is proving to be very favorable to NOK. On top of getting a cheap price for NSN at 1.7B transaction, Nokia will use NSN to issue 500M in bonds to make an 900M dividend payment to NOK. Meaning the final cost of the transaction will be half paid for by the acquired company itself. In addition, they will cut another 17% of their workforce to ensure they can maintain their margins. Revenue is expected to increase and we are waiting, any day now, on a huge China Mobile 600k radio base station contract as well as LTE contracts from 2 of the 3 largest carriers in Russia.
Management is making the right decisions and I feel this company and its 3 businesses are drastically undervalued.
My dilemma now is that I have a scenario envisioned for the next half year for this company, but how to play it? I’m holding half my earlier positions, and can either add more or possibly consider leverage with options.
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Sand
Footballguy
Bought a little more NLY today. It has been hammered, but its latest financial statement show that its management (which I like a lot) have weathered the storm nicely.
Also, because I ran across it - a nice chart showing the best stock and bond asset class performance over time. Illuminating in how hard it is to pick winners.
Also, because I ran across it - a nice chart showing the best stock and bond asset class performance over time. Illuminating in how hard it is to pick winners.
Drifter
Footballguy
Hit a low of 17.37 an hour after I posted this and a high of 18,98 2 days later before pulling back to the low 18s. Fell short of the easy 10% I thought by a smidge (.8%) but I think it will still get there with a bit longer outlook.
optionmaven
Footballguy
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Man I wish I knew options better. With AAPL essentially backloading it's entire product line to the 2nd half of the year this year, the next 3 months looks like easy, easy money.
optionmaven
Footballguy
1. Do you own at least 100 shares??
2. Do you have a broker, online trading site, or is this 401k?
3. They make options seem really scary and confusing, they are not. Take the time to learn the basics. Force yourself too. Too powafo an investment tool to be ignored or scared of.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Decided to stop posting my trades here. It isn't you, it's me. Just a lot of bad luck the last year or so in all facets of my life. I figure I'll try the Costanza and do the opposite of what I was doing.
GL to all.
GL to all.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Didn't you say the same exact thing last year in the fall? I'm scared when i hear people talk about easy money. Below is the same type of post you made on Sept 14th when Apple was at 693.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=631219&view=findpost&p=14762987
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Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
Great, how am i going to make money now, I was fading all your moves and having the best year of my life!
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Yep - I've gotten CRUSHED since last Sept when I made that post. AAPL did indeed report the greatest quarter in company history in January, but it didn't matter. My lesson learned from that debacle (which I am still recovering from today) is that the runup I was anticipating had already taken place by the time the quarter started last year.
This is the time of year the stock has traditionally traded higher, and with all of the products being backloaded, it seems ripe for an upward correction. With the dividends, stock buy backs, and fundamentals still suggesting the stock is cheap, I'm still bullish. And there are a couple of catalysts that I think could move the needle, if announced in the near future (iWatch, China Mobile deal, Apple TV).
Obviously, I'm extremely biased.
This is the time of year the stock has traditionally traded higher, and with all of the products being backloaded, it seems ripe for an upward correction. With the dividends, stock buy backs, and fundamentals still suggesting the stock is cheap, I'm still bullish. And there are a couple of catalysts that I think could move the needle, if announced in the near future (iWatch, China Mobile deal, Apple TV).
Obviously, I'm extremely biased.
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ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
i agree with you, but cringed when i heard the easy money thing again like last year. I hope you didn't jinx things again.
cstu
Footballguy
Revenue growth is the big problem for Apple. Even with new products coming out they don't offer anything unique like their previous one (slight upgrades to the iPhone 5 and iPad Mini). The cheaper iPhone 5C is going to be a hit to margins and there should be concern that it will cannibalize iPhone 5S sales.
Redwes25
Footballguy
They are also buying so much stock it makes me nervous that we don't know what the real floor is in the stock price. Even they can't keep buying back at the rate they did in the last quarter.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Revenue growth is definitely an issue. The cheaper Iphone and a deal with China Mobile are key to getting revenues going again.
