What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Stock Thread (34 Viewers)

Evilgrin 72 said:
Confused on something on call options, maybe someone can tell me what I'm missing.

Right now, TWTR Feb 16th $17 calls at $7.45.  That makes the breakeven $24.45.  Stock is trading at $25.15.

Why wouldn't someone just buy 100 contracts for $74,500 and then exercise?  You end up with 10,000 shares at $17 and then sell them at $25.15 for $81,500.  You just made $7,000 in 5 minutes.  I have to be missing something, or else the prices of the calls aren't updating in real time.
Click to expand...
The spread between the bid x ask is pretty wide.  Right now with $TWTR trading at $25.06...the bid x ask on those 17's is $6.35 x $8.40...the mid-point is $7.37.  Normally when the spread is a lot closer...let's say $.10...you could offer the mid-point and get filled.  But there no way you're going to get filled on such a wide spread at the mid-point ($7.37) and definitely not today...my guess is if you really want that call option...you'll pay at least $8.30. 

 
EYLive said:
:scared:  Is it safe to reinvest?

Imma give it another week.  :unsure:
Click to expand...
I nibbled at some KIM just now.  I'll check in a year to see if that was a good choice.  At the least I'll get 8% for waiting - if it doesn't go to zero first, which it seems like all REITs are right now.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
If Wells Fargo (who admittedly is the Chipotle of banks) keeps falling, they're going to start looking super attractive for any value fund, regardless of punishments (which will be removed within 6 months anyways). 

Don't think they make it down to $50, but around $53-$54 I start nibbling. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
If Wells Fargo (who admittedly is the Chipotle of banks) keeps falling, they're going to start looking super attractive for any value fund, regardless of punishments (which will be removed within 6 months anyways). 

Don't think they make it down to $50, but around $53-$54 I start nibbling. 
Click to expand...
I got in for 1000 shares about an hour ago at $56.5x and I couldn't be happier

 
My PEAT investment is up .002 per share. I’ve not seen this kind of movement in weeks!!1!!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42 said:
I would not be surprised to see them challenging their current 52 week high on the back half of the year (which is about 17 or so percent from here) - nice buy.
Click to expand...
Yea it's been on my wish list. I made a good bit in Citi last year but pulled out too early so was looking for somewhere to get back in. Today's number did it for me with Wells 

 
John Bender said:
Yea it's been on my wish list. I made a good bit in Citi last year but pulled out too early so was looking for somewhere to get back in. Today's number did it for me with Wells 
Click to expand...
In an expensive market, WFC looks very attractive from a valuation standpoint - these sanctions will be a distant memory by next year. I still feel more comfortable with JPM, mainly bc they're a better run bank with better leadership (IMO), but they're also a lot more and you have to pay that premium if you want them. 

*Also, doesn't matter if you're a longterm holder, but IDK if the WFC washout is fully complete.

If I was guessing, I'd think they bottom between $53-$54.50 range.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
cosjobs said:
I prefer banks whose assets aren't Federally limited
Click to expand...
Think it's been priced in at this point - they estimate the damage at $400MM, but since their the shadiest scum of the scum, even at $800MM, I think their price reflects that. 

Also think sanctions will be gone by Q3. 

I guess I kinda  :wub:  WFC right now, basically bc their scandal spooked me into selling JPM premarket yesterday - protected a ton of profits, thanks scumbags!

 
siffoin said:
The spread between the bid x ask is pretty wide.  Right now with $TWTR trading at $25.06...the bid x ask on those 17's is $6.35 x $8.40...the mid-point is $7.37.  Normally when the spread is a lot closer...let's say $.10...you could offer the mid-point and get filled.  But there no way you're going to get filled on such a wide spread at the mid-point ($7.37) and definitely not today...my guess is if you really want that call option...you'll pay at least $8.30. 
Click to expand...
Great info, thanks !

 
St. Louis Bob said:
I hear that.
Click to expand...
Could you imagine, the DJIA drops 5k points in 4 days and TVIX goes from $7 to $150 in that span. The following day, the DJIA rips 1,700 points and VIX falls by like 80% - you're sitting on TVIX and your $7k is still worth $40k or whatever, then they freeze it, and you get zero - I think I'd have a heart attack.

Some maniacs have prob been holding XIV for a year, they bought 1k shares for $30k, they woke up yesterday with $115k, by close they had $0... This def happened to people. 

 
St. Louis Bob said:
Yesterday was the event I was waiting for and missed the fun. 
Click to expand...
I thought you were in yesterday? That sucks, sorry SLB!

Regardless, I think the key takeaway for everyone in this thread @cosjobs (I'm also looking at you) is to avoid these things like poison. 

A) If not timed right (which is basically impossible), you'll always lose.

B) You are at risk of complete loss of capital with no recourse.

I was unaware of B, I mean I knew they were risky, but who knew you could just get wiped out like that... Glad it wasn't me (or any of us) who learned this lesson the hard way. Up 400% in a year, wiped out to $0 in a day.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
:lmao:

Cold...

Really debating buying/gambling just one TSLA put, $16.80 ($1,680) 2/9 strike date, basically puts me in the green under $325. 

Everyone expects huge costs and problems here from them, yet none of that is priced in - furthermore, I think it'll be even worse. 

Anyone with a TSLA opinion? If they surprise, it's basically worth $0 tomorrow.

I've got 10 minutes...

 
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42 said:
:lmao:

Cold...

Really debating buying/gambling just one TSLA put, $16.80 ($1,680) 2/9 strike date, basically puts me in the green under $325. 

Everyone expects huge costs and problems here from them, yet none of that is priced in - furthermore, I think it'll be even worse. 

Anyone with a TSLA opinion? If they surprise, it's basically worth $0 tomorrow.

I've got 10 minutes...
Click to expand...
Not a bad idea.  I think TSLA is way overvalued.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
:lmao:

Cold...

Really debating buying/gambling just one TSLA put, $16.80 ($1,680) 2/9 strike date, basically puts me in the green under $325. 

Everyone expects huge costs and problems here from them, yet none of that is priced in - furthermore, I think it'll be even worse. 

Anyone with a TSLA opinion?
Click to expand...
I think they just fired off a big-### rocket.

 
Sold the TVIX this morning at 11.035.  Bot Fri at 6.959.  Back to 7.56.  :lmao:

Feel like it rained torrentially for 2 trading days and now the sun is coming out and the skies are blue again.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
:lmao:

Cold...

Really debating buying/gambling just one TSLA put, $16.80 ($1,680) 2/9 strike date, basically puts me in the green under $325. 

Everyone expects huge costs and problems here from them, yet none of that is priced in - furthermore, I think it'll be even worse. 

Anyone with a TSLA opinion? If they surprise, it's basically worth $0 tomorrow.

I've got 10 minutes...
Click to expand...
I think you have 24 hours....

 
Put in about 10k between the late crash yesterday and dip in the opening today. All long term etf holds so I'll ignore it now until the end of the year...hopefully.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Could you imagine, the DJIA drops 5k points in 4 days and TVIX goes from $7 to $150 in that span. The following day, the DJIA rips 1,700 points and VIX falls by like 80% - you're sitting on TVIX and your $7k is still worth $40k or whatever, then they freeze it, and you get zero - I think I'd have a heart attack.

Some maniacs have prob been holding XIV for a year, they bought 1k shares for $30k, they woke up yesterday with $115k, by close they had $0... This def happened to people. 
Click to expand...
Got a buddy, seasoned trader, that’s been trading it for a decade. Took the loss of his career on this last night. Actually added to his position in after hours thinking it was a fund liquidation.  He thinks the cboe screwed him and there will likely be a class action suit.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Steed said:
Got a buddy, seasoned trader, that’s been trading it for a decade. Took the loss of his career on this last night. Actually added to his position in after hours thinking it was a fund liquidation.  He thinks the cboe screwed him and there will likely be a class action suit.
Click to expand...
That sucks man. :(

 
Chipotle:

Sales rose 7.3% to $1.1 billion, driven by new-restaurant openings and to a lesser extent by a 0.9% increase in comparable-restaurant sales, the company said. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected earnings of $1.32 a share on sales of $1.11 billion. The rise in comparable-restaurant sales was due to an increase in the average check, including a 2.4% impact from menu price increases for some restaurants in the second and fourth quarters, partially offset by a decrease in transactions, the company said. 
Click to expand...
I'm just a novice, but you'd figure declining customers (which is what the bold implies), means no growth, and an extremely bloated QSR stock with a P/E of 60. Bears are going to feast on this, regardless of initial reactions. 

This has been like my piggybank, but I've looked elsewhere the past 6 months. Tomorrow I think I'm opening some lotto puts on this bad boy. 

Their forward P/E outlook is around 45-50 :lmao:

For comparison, best in their vertical (MCD) has a forward looking P/E in the low 20's and somehow, with their saturation, still better growth.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42 said:
Chipotle:

I'm just a novice, but you'd figure declining customers (which is what the bold implies), means no growth, and an extremely bloated QSR stock with a P/E of 60. Bears are going to feast on this, regardless of initial reactions. 

This has been like my piggybank, but I've looked elsewhere the past 6 months. Tomorrow I think I'm opening some lotto puts on this bad boy. 

Their forward P/E outlook is around 45-50 :lmao:

For comparison, best in their vertical (MCD) has a forward looking P/E in the low 20's and somehow, with their saturation, still better growth.
Click to expand...
####!!! Market took this up 3%, now it's done 3% :kicksrock:

Was really hoping this would open green, now my puts will have a premium, ugghhhh.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I'd like to see them do more with their stockpile of cash. They finally did something with Kite last year, like to see them keep making moves.
Click to expand...
I think they way overpaid for Kite. A ton of competition coming to that space and they are having trouble with their supply chain to take advantage of being first to market.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
IDK, after watching what happened with XIV, I'm avoiding ETNs forever... The bank can just close it with no (or minimal) liability to the shareholder.
Click to expand...
Just means that if you buy one of these you have to pay attention to page 23 of the 40 page prospectus...

Don't Noonan said:
Not a bad idea.  I think TSLA is way overvalued.
Click to expand...
I've been thinking that since it was at $50.  

And I can happily announce that I didn't lose money on KIM, yet.  There's always tomorrow.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Andrew74
2025 FBG Stock Contest
2
Replies
77
Views
4K
Andrew74
Andrew74
Andrew74
2024 FBG Stock Contest
2 3
Replies
127
Views
8K
McBokonon
McBokonon
Joey Wright
2025-2026 NCAA College Basketball Thread
Replies
17
Views
428
gump
gump

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 29 (members: 2, guests: 27)
Back
Top