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It isn’t as of yet and I still have a lot more work to do. A LOT of work to do, tbh. Going to try and get some done over the holiday season with my down time and put my perfect list together of what and when, along with target prices where I see a lot of value.
Every bounce has been a dead cat and will remain so until we get a major shift. We've already given back most of the gains from this "good news" today, not sure why we'd have any meaningful bounce if/when we "resolve" the government shut down either.
You're prob right, wishful thinking on my part. Everyone is selling even the smallest of pops. I guess it would take a resolution to China to get a meaningful pop, as I don't see Powell changing his position in the immediate future.
Dow down 400 from the highs 1 hr ago, now markets lower than before he spoke.
Yeah, I don't see any real answer for his observation other than moving to cash. If I get his drift, there are so many people on auto-pilot with their paycheck deductions routinely going into index funds that if there is a mass panic and people rotate out to cash funds or bonds that it should cause a real extreme and exacerbated downturn in stocks. Maybe there is good argument to get out of the index's that are market cap driven and way too heavy in apple or amzn for example like the S&P 500.
Yeah, both bond and equity index funds are down this year. I would imagine this is a once a 50 year event. Then again we've got a reality show moron as a president so who knows.
I sent the article to an investment advisor I work with on one account and he echoed that there has been concern about the growth of index funds but any market issue that effects these funds will also impact actively managed funds the same.
But the question posed is an important one. Behavior is clearly bear market, but is it a bear market? Bear market rallies are pretty intense, so if it is a bear market and we see one of those rallies, is it a rally that should be shorted? It’s a question none of us can really answer, but worth pondering.
If we are looking at a long term chart. Let's call that the "Investors Chart". With this type of chart, the primary goal is to catch the MAJOR Trends. Ones that last for months-years. That way we can ignore the noise of day to day action. In a chart like this we'd look at it 1x per month - at the end of the month. And that chart right now is bullish. However we are breaking support levels currently. As scary as this market may seem - the LT would indicate that a MAJOR change in trend - from a Bull Market to a Bear Market is still some weeks away. Now such a change in trend would also mean a new LT trend that would likely last for months-years. Meaning IF the LT market flips - we're looking at a bottoming time frame many months away from where we are today. IF the LT Trend were to flip my tea leaves suggest that such a bottoming process would occur sometime between Oct 2019-May 2020. (Now look that is some BS tea leaf reading to be sure - but that's a guesstimate from where I sit right now - just guessing. But it's a starting point for Bear Market plan development).
$FB is a BS company. As I said back when I was in the process of taking a short position. I don't know nuthin about nuthin' but I know this company if full of shiz. Anyone stupid enough to log into a $FB account knowing what we know today get's what they deserve.
Once that turd is gone, I guess it will be MAGA. Microsoft, Apple, Google and Amazon since Netflix is doomed as well. Both it and FB are just fads that can be replaced by the next big thing for consumers.
I disagree. Why would you treat a bounce differently if it happened while we were down 19% from the highs than you would if we were 21% down? I agree that no one can really answer it, the answer won't really be known until after the fact.
Its been a great month for me with TVIX and UVXY.Remember when I lost all that money in TVIX?
Of course moving mostly out of stocks is 7-8x of a return than those losses but it would have been a really Merry Christmas if I would have timed it better.
So if the long term bull trend is still in tact, may I ask if you are still long?
There doesn't have to be a panic. Just like there doesn't have to be a Christmas rally and 'sell in May & go away' doesn't have to be true. Man, if you went buy that one, you bought the top in October.
All very true. I'm behind and always will be because I left my full time job in 2010 to start my own business. At that point coming off the 2008-2009 turmoil I quit putting my 401K/SEP in stock. Silly now looking back but at the time I was entering a cash intensive business and didn't have the stomach to take more losses when I was soaking up every liquid dollar I had to fund what was an expanding business. We had our first daughter on the way and I was leaving the security of a salaried career. I know typically 401K/SEP are long term assets, but I just didn't have any cash or bond type assets left personally so I used those annual contributions to get some stability and out of the fluctuations. In hindsight, I wish those actions I took were different. I also used to invest monthly in equity funds and I stopped that in 2010 when I lost that steady salary as well. Don't get me wrong, business has went well and if that's the price I had to pay to get my business to the point it is today, it's more than well worth it and the business has compensated me for that lost opportunity cost. I also didn't sell off any equities I'd built up prior to that. Just in hindsight I would have been fine at least from a retirement asset standpoint being less conservative and I could have had my cake and eaten it too kind of thing. So now any equity buys are shaded through that lens even if they shouldn't be of well I could have bought at some fraction of the price today.
Of course, and I knew that when I did it. It was also a uniquely difficult time to be giving up a salary and going into a capital intensive business so it was a decision I'll live with.
This is a tough question for me to answer because I juggle a few different types of accounts - and each of those is structured with different goals and time frames.
They sell connectivity and it does have value. I don't follow FB, so no idea what that connectivity is really worth.
I realize you're being snarky, but objectively they do sell the consumer connectivity with each other. That does have value that they can leverage ad revenue off of. As with Tesla I have no idea how to value them so have never tried. Certainly not enough to short them.
I think we have a called bottom here.
This symbol is part of my HW.
The kind that cost me about 15k new? I'm of the opinion one should prudently spend no more than 20% of gross yearly income on the purchase price of a vehicle. I'm a bit shy of that 400k salary.
Thanks. I agree completely about having a plan, but I guess I'm not doing a great job explaining my question, which is more about identifying a change in trend/confirmation. For instance, just the range you gave for a hypothetical next high for the SPY is $15, which is over 6% of the current price. That's an above average 6 months in the market, but lately it's moving that much in a couple of days. If you're waiting for monthy charts for confirmation of a trend change, you could get whipsawed like crazy in this environment.
This is only tangentially related but if anyone has idea I've often thought about it.
I mean i don't even remember the last time I paid a transaction fee on a trade. Between Merrill, Fidelity, Vanguard, and Schwab I can't imagine a reason I'd ever have to pay a fee. Dentist turned me on to Merrill for more exotic stuff for me and the rest are free on etfs. You should always be looking to lower your fees.Bonfire said:
I’ve read about this a million times and this is 100% technically correct.
Interest rates should have been baked in already you’d think. Amazon missed the revenue number in Q3 earnings by less than 1% and blew away earnings forecasts. They lowered Q4 revenue guidance by a couple % IIRC. The stock is now down @ 35%. Their earnings will continue to beat estimates and their 2019 P/E could be somewhere in the 40s and people weren’t too concerned when it was 3 times that in the summer. I’m not saying it should be 2000 right now, but it’s been going down 4-5% a day. Crazy how fast it’s been. I sold my IRA purchase at 1760-1770 3 weeks ago tomorrow. So glad I did.
I’m considering the same.
