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& on China:

Trump meets his best friend Xi at the end of November. Let's look at a timeline since:

12/6 - Pretty important player in the China ecosystem arrested at the request of the USA

12/18 - Xi delivers 80 minute speech to mark the 40th anniversary of China "opening up to reform" or whatever they want to call it:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-18/xi-says-reform-and-opening-up-is-revolution-in-china-s-history

Does that sound like a man who is looking to hand over meaningful concessions? 

Then, the guy leading the negotiation on our side, just yesterday:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/us-trade-rep-reportedly-thinks-more-tariffs-needed-to-get-meaningful-concessions-from-china.html

And then today from the State Department:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/us-issues-new-warning-over-china-travel-urging-increased-caution-.html

So, we can either take the very honest POTUS at face value, or look at the DNA from the crime scene, I know which one I believe. Honestly, I think a deal with China will either be ####ty and Trump folding, or nothing at all. Certainly not a good deal, Xi knows it'll be business as usual in 23 months, he has all the time in the world, Trump does not. 

So even if Trump inks the biggest and greatest deal ever, which we all know would be bull####, I think it provides temporary relief, but does not do much to prolong the cycle by maybe an extra 6 months. 
1/15 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/grassley-says-lighthizer-saw-little-progress-in-china-talks-on-structural-issues-2019-01-15 - Shocking

They aren't budging and will handle all the pain in the world for now. Trump buckles when our stocks slide 15%. 

Mounting pressure on their economy too, if our POTUS wasn't so ####### stupid (lol), he'd already be full court press, send them into a mean recession, and hope they break within 12 months or so. Instead, they keep running the clock down. Such a ####### tool. 

 
Slowly starting to move a small amount of 401k to cash, I hate messing with it, but the market correctly priced risk in last quarter, now it feels like it is in race to remove all risk that was priced in. 

Also, if you look at the revenue numbers being reported, a lot are flat or down, obviously profits are up bc of tax cuts, but not sure how that trend continues without one thing happening (cost savings). P/E were down closer to a fair value, they're already heading back towards expensive, stocks were measuring as oversold, they're already closing back in on overbought. 

Like to have a 10-15% cash position in my 401k for now. 

What I find funniest about this, is it is happening during a shutdown that was A) unexpected to be this long & B) slowing GDP more than even anticipated. 

I think this is what Powell wants though, as he can continue to run the balance sheet, and possibly raise 1-2 more times this year. 

 
I am curious how people here manage their kids college funds.
Took out a 529 for both kids at birth. I went with solid performing of state funds (NY and UT), as in-state funds in WA weren't stellar with returns short or long term, no income tax deduction benefit, and the in-state GET program seemed less fungible out of state than out-of-state funds are in other states). 

One of my financial goals was to get my kids through college debt-free. The cost of college these days (and projected rise in costs in the future) make this almost untenable for any student, but the more I can remove a debt burden, the more I believe I can set them up in their own lives in the right way.

Been funding those MFers constantly, often at the expense of allocation towards retirement (still max out contributions in my 401k to get match and try to get to annual limits, but with my wife leaving the workforce to be a mom we'll need to work harder elsewhere to retire with an income that approximates 80%+ of current income - another goal of mine).  

At this point, if most online calculators can be trusted, I'm on track to fund in-state options as well as the current average cost of private 4 yr nationally (tuition + room/board). If somehow annual cost increase percentages spike, or they get into the Ivies or a higher cost institution that aligns with their career/education interests and passions, we can have that discussion. Feel pretty great about this.

On the positive, that would prob be the end of the GOP. All we would have to is figure out how to get rid of Dems, and find a better system than this two party bull#### we have now. 

I consider this all highly unlikely. 
Not to bring politics into this sub, but I honestly feel the death of the GOP would benefit the country by precisely opening up more options than a 2-party system. McConnell is every bit as liable for this shutdown as Trump, the GOP are too spineless to cross lines even though it's perfectly sensible to get things moving, and the rhetoric (to be fair, on both sides of the aisle) and non-action comes fully at the expense of actual representation and governing soundly and in the best interests of the entire nation. A clean sweep is desperately needed.

But like you, I believe that to be extraordinarily unlikely -- people stick with status quo a lot more than forcing real change, even when the benefits of change far outweigh its pains. I'd like to have hope, but the machine is too far entrenched.

 
Nice recovery so far in January.  S&P 500 PE now at 16 which is historically pretty fair value.

 
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My favorite is reading the bottom is in quotes. Way to go out on a limb with a gutsy call, after every major index is now basically at the midpoint from the selloff and the highs.

 
Big tip for you guys, buy NFLX if you can for $233.50 a share :thumbup:

CNBC & Marketwatch are useless, I don't even want to go on them or read Jim Cramer quotes or any of that nonsense. 

Anyone a paid subscriber to any sites that they enjoy? Feel like any decent content needs to be paid for at this time, or I hope the paid content is at least better than the garbage CNBC spews. 

 
I feel like I should take a trip to britan to buy about 100,000 pounds then return in maybe June and buy a distillery with the proceeds. 

If it bumped .05 to 1.3 on no deal what will it do with a deal? 1.4? 1.5?  

 
Mostly a tax question but I'm sure people in this thread have been through this before. I hold stock in a company that is being bought out. The agreement states that at closing, each share will convert to a share of the new company, plus cash. My question is that cash considered income? Logic says its more of a change in cost basis due to the difference in stock price between the companies but I can't seem to find any information online confirming it. 

 
Gamma1210 said:
Mostly a tax question but I'm sure people in this thread have been through this before. I hold stock in a company that is being bought out. The agreement states that at closing, each share will convert to a share of the new company, plus cash. My question is that cash considered income? Logic says its more of a change in cost basis due to the difference in stock price between the companies but I can't seem to find any information online confirming it. 
Last time I saw this, it was shown as "cash in lieu" on the 1099 and taxed as ordinary income. But who knows if it changed with all the recent tax changes.

 
If a rumor of an easing of US sanctions on China causes that kind of bump an announcement of an agreement will be a 5+% day.

I would not want to be short this market - a white swan could spike this thing.

 
Was wondering if there's a point airlines become really attractive because of it.  They have to suffer.  But with seemingly no end to discounted oil, that would have to be a short-term hit, I'd think.

 
Selling out one of my oil stocks. RDS:A, won’t be in my portfolio after today. No real reason other than, hopefully, using that money elsewhere. Not sure where yet though. I’m holding BP for now. The money I will have I will either put into a Vanguard fund or maybe mix it between Vanguard and AAPL. 
I own RDS.  Pretty good last year-up 10% & dividend of around 7%.   if oil price goes up so should RDS I would think.

 
I own RDS.  Pretty good last year-up 10% & dividend of around 7%.   if oil price goes up so should RDS I would think.
I've been in Vanguards VDE ETF since 2014. It's the one dog that's been dragging me down for 2018. I'm wondering if I should look at RDS or double down on VDE. With local fuel prices being at a 10 year low, is it reasonable to think that these have nowhere to go but up at some point in the next 5 years?

 
I've been in Vanguards VDE ETF since 2014. It's the one dog that's been dragging me down for 2018. I'm wondering if I should look at RDS or double down on VDE. With local fuel prices being at a 10 year low, is it reasonable to think that these have nowhere to go but up at some point in the next 5 years?
I'm the wrong guy to ask.   I invested in RDS for the dividend.  It happened to go up 10% over the last year.  I'm not good like some are here.  I keep abreast of the posts here & try to glean something.  Sand, knowledgedropper, perocoria(?)etc.  have some great insight.  sorry I left some out but 4 beers in on a 6 pack & don't want to ruin the buzz.

dinner in 30 minutes.

 
i also think some here could be some real good financial advisers.   Not the kind that takes the morning company line of this is who we like today & plugs a company for the commission.

JMHO

 
Hmm, I see NFLX down but I didn’t really go into the details. I think it’s the normal sell on actual news that seems to always happen. Seems like signing up 1 million more subscribers than expected and raising prices would be well received but again NFLX has been up more than most since the end of the year fall.

I’ve still got my SQ and 18 sellable shares of AMZN that I’m getting antsy about. I want to diversify a little so I’d sell all 18 shares and SQ but I don’t want to sell too early. When are the next key dates, i.e. China or Brexit or anything else news wise coming up? I can see both trending up a little more until a macro bad news hits. Macro good news and they could both pop 5% in a day. 

 
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Last time I saw this, it was shown as "cash in lieu" on the 1099 and taxed as ordinary income. But who knows if it changed with all the recent tax changes.
ooooof. That would be terrible. So if I sell a day before the deal closes its capital gains, but the day after its income? I have some serious math to do. 

 
ooooof. That would be terrible. So if I sell a day before the deal closes its capital gains, but the day after its income? I have some serious math to do. 
Wait...I'm confused.  I thought you were holding on to the new shares?  

Regardless, the little bit of cash that wasn't large enough to be a share should be considered "cash in lieu" regardless if you sell the other shares or not.

 
Wait...I'm confused.  I thought you were holding on to the new shares?  

Regardless, the little bit of cash that wasn't large enough to be a share should be considered "cash in lieu" regardless if you sell the other shares or not.
Maybe I wasn't 100% clear. I'll just use the real deal. BMS is buying CELG for $50 cash plus one share of BMS for each share of CELG. I'm trying to figure out how the $50 is treated for tax reasons. TIA.

 
Welp, getting harder to hold onto SQ and AMZN, but it just seems to continue trending up. I’m more worried about the bottom falling out again more than these stocks jumping up to the Fall highs. It’s just hard to sell when there’s no sign of a stop. SQ itself is going crazy.

 
Maybe I wasn't 100% clear. I'll just use the real deal. BMS is buying CELG for $50 cash plus one share of BMS for each share of CELG. I'm trying to figure out how the $50 is treated for tax reasons. TIA.
Oh, gotcha.  Yeah, I'm not sure.  I'd be curious to see how it's reported on your 1099.

Look for more guidance to come out on this and/or let your CPA deal with it.  GL

 
Bought some NVDA for the kid early in the year.  Should have bought more.  Way more.
No ####. I unfortunately jumped into the fray a little early in October and didn’t sell when I should have in November. If I had, I definitely would have jumped in guns blazing at the end of the year. At least I’m ahead of where I was in August, S&P down about 6% from then. 

 
Hate to say it, but I'm debating buying the 3/1 Tesla $300 call for around $30 and paying the premium. Might just outright buy 100 shares and not pay the premium. 

They desperately need to be over $360 a share on that day, this guy Musk seems to be a magician, if he isn't there by then, it will be financially crippling for the company. 

I prob can't bring myself to pulling the trigger on this of all things, but if they aren't there by then, could be the beginning of the end. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Hate to say it, but I'm debating buying the 3/1 Tesla $300 call for around $30 and paying the premium. Might just outright buy 100 shares and not pay the premium. 

They desperately need to be over $360 a share on that day, this guy Musk seems to be a magician, if he isn't there by then, it will be financially crippling for the company. 

I prob can't bring myself to pulling the trigger on this of all things, but if they aren't there by then, could be the beginning of the end. 
So they finally start actually delivering cars, and now they're done?

Stupid Elon.

 
Just started using Robinhood. 

Second week in, everything has been in Discover, not a bad 6% gain so far.  But now I hold.  This is probably my car fund, would like it to be over $25k by the summer. 

Retirement accounts are almost all index.

 
It pains me to say it, but I think Tesla makes for a juicy trade here, really giving it thought. 

Elon got the bad news out of the way, baked it in, gave himself 6 weeks to run this thing up to $360.

 
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75 shares, $303.50, at $280 I’m gone.

Target is $343.

Forget everything negative I’ve ever said about Tesla and Musk, this company is going to change the world.

 
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