Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Stock Thread (22 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Including what the FA is managing?
About 20%
He has about 50% of our savings under his watch... He is doing a decent job, but not all that impressed.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Really need to run this by Eminence... Hopefully he isn't too busy and can take me on as a client.
sbonomo
Footballguy
I am sure there are FA's out there worth their weight in gold but my general opinion is that they are a bunch of duche bags....In my line of work we regularly deal with the one of the largest brokerage firms (all big banks are required to help cross sell products). They are a dime a dozen with no other goal than making money for themselves. I have consistently out gained them with much less complex strategies and MUCH lower risk. It is my opinion that you can pick a simple index fund (i personally own a small cap, s&p and long term growth) that will, over time, equal or exceed whatever they recommend. Like you i hold roughly 30% in the aforementioned funds, 50% in stocks (FB, AMZN, F, AAPL, BAC, NTI, SLY and two dividend stocks EEP, NTI) with the rest sitting in cash. IMO trust yourself over some dude that is pushing the funds that get him the largest commission.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
FWIW, leveraged ETFs are designed for very short term trading vs. something sitting for a few months.
(Also, fixed your GRPN entry in the contest; switched you with the person who is long when I entered - sorry)
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I really want to test my own strategies out - I'm going on 31, but if what I laid out above works for the next few years, I'll move all of my funds into the above... I want to own a few stocks of companies I believe in, an S&P fund, & then a diverse group of no load funds like above... Not looking to set the world on fire, but hopefully pickup 7-8% annually over the course of time.
Sarnoff
Footballguy
Yeah, you want to avoid 3x ETFs unless your window is shorter than a day. Long-term they will only lose you money.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Why is that? In 10 years the S&P will prob be 2500 or even higher - Say it picks up 40% over the next decade, if I am 3x wouldn't that return 120% over the life of the investment?
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
You need to read about leveraged ETFs and how they are constructed or maybe someone else can chime in I am not well versed enough to properly explain, but you are not exactly just buying the S&P. Derivatives are involved.
Here's an article.
"Returns of 3x ETFs are predictable relative to the index only if held for less than one day. Over longer periods, even as short as a week, these ETFs can and will vary from their underlying indices, sometimes significantly."
http://etfdb.com/2009/the-truth-about-3x-etfs-and-long-term-investing-or-dont-use-a-toaster-to-cook-a-turkey/
Here's an article.
"Returns of 3x ETFs are predictable relative to the index only if held for less than one day. Over longer periods, even as short as a week, these ETFs can and will vary from their underlying indices, sometimes significantly."
http://etfdb.com/2009/the-truth-about-3x-etfs-and-long-term-investing-or-dont-use-a-toaster-to-cook-a-turkey/
Last edited by a moderator:
Miscellaneous
Footballguy
Unfortunately, the math doesn't work out:
http://thecollegeinvestor.com/4414/leveraged-etfs-dont-match-market-performance/
Miscellaneous
Footballguy
To build on this - when I was first starting out, oil prices were LOW. Really, really low. I figured that oil prices HAD to rebound, so I decided to go with a 2x leveraged ETF instead of a simple index. When all was said and done, I think the 2x leverage bought me an extra 5-10%. It was really frustrating.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Thanks, makes sense... Ill replace the leveraged fund with spy
Last edited by a moderator:
The Sniper
Footballguy
Just did something similar to this. I needed to simplify my life and was sick of following lots of individual stocks every day. So we're now in Vanguard index funds and just 10 of our favorite stocks. Good luck.
Sarnoff
Footballguy
Yeah the problem with the 2x & 3x ETFs is they rebalance, daily, to make the next day's trading match the market. It's not like buying into the whole market on the first day and following it up and down from there with the same basket of equities. Their idea is to match one day at a time.
So, say the S&P is at 1500, for the sake of round numbers. And after a day, it drops 10% to 1350. The next day, it goes up 11.11% from there and lands back at 1500.
You could by a 1x ETF that tracks the S&P exactly, and you'd be fine. Say it costs 15.00 per share. After the first day it's down to 13.50. The next day it bounces back up to 15.00. All good.
The 3x fund takes a bit of a beating, though. If you buy it at 15.00, after 1 day, it drops 30% to 10.50. The next day, it pops up 33.33%. But that's only getting you back up to $14.00. You're a buck short per share on a net move of 0 in the market.
Over time, that'll add up. Even if the market goes up overall, you won't get 3x return. If the market goes down, of course you'll get wiped out. But, if the market seesaws and holds steady, you'll go broke there, too.
So, say the S&P is at 1500, for the sake of round numbers. And after a day, it drops 10% to 1350. The next day, it goes up 11.11% from there and lands back at 1500.
You could by a 1x ETF that tracks the S&P exactly, and you'd be fine. Say it costs 15.00 per share. After the first day it's down to 13.50. The next day it bounces back up to 15.00. All good.
The 3x fund takes a bit of a beating, though. If you buy it at 15.00, after 1 day, it drops 30% to 10.50. The next day, it pops up 33.33%. But that's only getting you back up to $14.00. You're a buck short per share on a net move of 0 in the market.
Over time, that'll add up. Even if the market goes up overall, you won't get 3x return. If the market goes down, of course you'll get wiped out. But, if the market seesaws and holds steady, you'll go broke there, too.
Sarnoff
Footballguy
Very few investors should be largely in individual stocks long term. Unless you're an expert in a market segment or one particular company. There's just too much going on and too much risk to the little guy. They're fun to play with, and do have a place as a small part of a well-rounded portfolio, but, the lion's share of most people's investments should be in index funds.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The article posted before says the only way to play the a leveraged fund is to use 100% margin on something like spy or dia... Although then you're paying interest... I guess it doesn't really make sense.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
This is true.
Even Cramer says on his show... if you're not putting in 3-5 hours a week doing homework/research (the alternative of course being to subscribe to his service) then he says you shouldn't be involved.
And I'd wager to say only 1-2% of people that watch his show even do that... let alone people that don't watch the show.
Most individual investors in individual stocks are gambling even though they call it "investing"
jamny
Footballguy
Down big in pre-market.
This isn't the first stock I've held that gets hammered after an article by Seeking Alpha.
lod01
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
What's the FBG opinion?
Is this just healthy activity or is something bigger underway?
Is this just healthy activity or is something bigger underway?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
oof
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Nikkei down 3%
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Personally, I'm not seriously worried until this continues on for a bit. To put a number behind that, I'd say a 10% drop from here on, but I'm unofficially starting to watch closely. I'm a very long term investor, and I'm not into anything that I'd need short-term liquidity on, so I can ride out a down-turn personally. With what's going on outside of the US with the beginnings of a taper, combined with some initially weaker 2014 economic data domestically, I'm not surprised to see some sell off taking place. Putting things into perspective, last year was absurd, and I feel like now is the beginning of a pull back for all of the folks sitting on relatively substantial 2013 gains. I will say I'd be nervous if I was into anything of substance outside of retirement index-type funds that I'm currently into.
culdeus
Footballguy
I just hate it that we are staring down the barrel of what should be about a 10-15% market correction, while at the same time interest rates should pop up 100-150 basis points and commodities are thought to be unstable because emerging market currencies are in the ####ter.
I think the only thing USD investors don't have to fear is inflation right now. That's why a monster pullback with the above "truths" seems somewhat likely to me.
I think the only thing USD investors don't have to fear is inflation right now. That's why a monster pullback with the above "truths" seems somewhat likely to me.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Come on Amaya....
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
That's appearing on a doomsday prepper-type site, so...Was this posted here somewhere? Some dude charted the last few years against the 1920s and called the top near Jan 14th...
Can't remember what thread I saw this in.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Seen it everywhere... We aren't having a real crash like that until QE is over for at least 6-12 months...That's appearing on a doomsday prepper-type site, so...Was this posted here somewhere? Some dude charted the last few years against the 1920s and called the top near Jan 14th...
Can't remember what thread I saw this in.
Sarnoff
Footballguy
Swore I've seen the chart on another site, but that's the first one that popped up in google. Seemed like a weird connection, that's all, and the most recent top was right about there. Looks like further down in the google results is the same chart in the WSJ. Wasn't sure if I had first run across it in this thread.That's appearing on a doomsday prepper-type site, so...Was this posted here somewhere? Some dude charted the last few years against the 1920s and called the top near Jan 14th...
Can't remember what thread I saw this in.
Last edited by a moderator:
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Meanwhile it was at $55 around 9:50 and an hour later at $60...
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Yep, it's coming back but probably a lot of short covering. It's still down 18% or so today.Meanwhile it was at $55 around 9:50 and an hour later at $60...
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Rest of sector in line. I'm getting pounded on XONE.Yep, it's coming back but probably a lot of short covering. It's still down 18% or so today.Meanwhile it was at $55 around 9:50 and an hour later at $60...
General Malaise
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
spoons- Sprint was up on belief they will get financing to acquire T-Mobile. However, there remains uncertainty over whether reguators would approve the deal.While it is not a fun time to own a Japanese stock, I am exposed to Sprint via Softbank, who owns around 78%. It is Softbank that is funding the buildout of Sprint's infrastructure.
General Malaise
Footballguy
[SIZE=10pt]Clearwater Seafoods Inc. (CLR - TSX)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Reinstating Coverage; All Cashed Up - Thursday, February 06, 2014
On February 4, 2014, Clearwater announced the closing of a bought deal equity offering of 4.0 MM shares at $8.50 per share for gross proceeds of $34.0 MM. Cormark participated as a syndicate member; this morning we are reinstating coverage following research restriction. Post the financing we are reiterating a $10.00 target (8.5x 2015E EBITDA). We believe strong Q4/13 results in March, led by ongoing strength in shrimp and scallop pricing as well as currency tailwinds, will act as a catalyst for the stock, and see no reason why similar results cannot be posted through H1/14. With the company now cashed up for M&A, discussions likely ongoing with a handful of vendors, and the rationale for adding incremental supply highly sound, we believe this represents another near-term catalyst and one that could increase EBITDA by as much as 20% and drive similar levels of EPS accretion. With strong management guiding a ship with both substantial operating momentum and a handful of internal and external growth opportunities, we reiterate a Top Pick recommendation. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]Reinstating Coverage; All Cashed Up - Thursday, February 06, 2014
On February 4, 2014, Clearwater announced the closing of a bought deal equity offering of 4.0 MM shares at $8.50 per share for gross proceeds of $34.0 MM. Cormark participated as a syndicate member; this morning we are reinstating coverage following research restriction. Post the financing we are reiterating a $10.00 target (8.5x 2015E EBITDA). We believe strong Q4/13 results in March, led by ongoing strength in shrimp and scallop pricing as well as currency tailwinds, will act as a catalyst for the stock, and see no reason why similar results cannot be posted through H1/14. With the company now cashed up for M&A, discussions likely ongoing with a handful of vendors, and the rationale for adding incremental supply highly sound, we believe this represents another near-term catalyst and one that could increase EBITDA by as much as 20% and drive similar levels of EPS accretion. With strong management guiding a ship with both substantial operating momentum and a handful of internal and external growth opportunities, we reiterate a Top Pick recommendation. [/SIZE]
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
They have a FB like valuation... Makes no sense.
ETA:
Yea this justifies a $25B market cap
LinkedIn Corp. LNKD -10.69% on Thursday reported a fourth-quarter profit of $3.78 million,
Last edited by a moderator:
sbonomo
Footballguy
identikit
Footballguy
Thanks for the update.
Still holding my 100 shares (bought @ 5.27)
ETA I bought the CSEAF edition.
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Correction is over... We can now continue our march to the moon.
I'm personally sitting on the sidelines. I think it is likely there will be some new highs, but I think within 1-2 years we are setting up for a gigantic crash.
I'm personally sitting on the sidelines. I think it is likely there will be some new highs, but I think within 1-2 years we are setting up for a gigantic crash.
Sarnoff
Footballguy
I don't think the correction is close to over short-term. Probably going to head farther south over the next couple of months.
