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Stock Thread (49 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
culdeus
Footballguy
I got one for lenovo. They lost a gigantic class action. Lawyers took 120Mil, I get $42.
Capella
Footballguy
I’m not happy I still have a lot of cash sitting around but Amazon is still my biggest single investment so I’ll live! I’ll take the Toyota Avalon upside after breaking back through 1700.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
This reminds me of 2017 where stocks and bonds did well. The Fed is on hold right now, low unemployment, earnings are solid, and inflation is still low. Don't fight the Fed!
NREC34
Footballguy
Perfect opportunity to buy the dip tomorrow if anyone has missed this upswing.Sky is falling cuz politics guy.
Eventually you will be right, hang in there.
Just throw a dart at a list and go all in on something.
Capella
Footballguy
NREC34
Footballguy
If someone even hints that stocks might go down is that political? Second time now that someone has mentioned politics to me and I can’t see where I’ve posted one thing political.
Is this the new FFA shtick?
Capella
Footballguy
Not that I know of. Somebody mentioned it above so I figured you were one of the crazies let out of the bin.
Why do you think there will be a dip tomorrow.
NREC34
Footballguy
Futures were down 400 points last I looked. If I say why maybe I’ll be blasted for talking politics over here idk
Capella
Footballguy
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GoBirds
Footballguy
He always tried to make it political, shouldn't have responded.
Any value you see out there?
shadrap
Footballguy
appears oil is going up because of the middle East & elsewhere. RDS(royal dutch shell) does have a nice dividend. That is all I know & it is not much. I love reading this thread & may have missed out on a lot.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Siff is definitely next level. Anyone buying up gold or other commodities now while we aren’t in a panic? Also any thoughts on gold etf vs actual gold for simplicity?
Thanks @irishidiot on the RDS, that may be a good position to add to.
Thanks @irishidiot on the RDS, that may be a good position to add to.
What the heck does that mean? I searched black swan event but does he think that will happen?
culdeus
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
thanks.
there was obviously real news yesterday. not sure why you had to be so coy about sharing any details of it.
Sand
Footballguy
Gotta think after that Sunday bomb tweet the market being only down 1% is pretty bullish.
That said I bought some ECC with monies that I have to disburse at year's end. Economy is doing well, so I'm taking a bit of risk with that - big dividend (something I wouldn't do if economic signals were different).
ETA: So I'm a homo. Damn. Guess I need to have a heart to heart with the wife.
That said I bought some ECC with monies that I have to disburse at year's end. Economy is doing well, so I'm taking a bit of risk with that - big dividend (something I wouldn't do if economic signals were different).
The whole concept of a black swan is something unpredictable. So I doubt Siffoin actually said that. He may be talking about an inflection point in the economy, though, which is altogether possible.stbugs said:
ETA: So I'm a homo. Damn. Guess I need to have a heart to heart with the wife.
Sand
Footballguy
I have to giggle at the concept of a POTUS tweet being a bit of "coy news".
The regular news talking heads were breathless last night in their coverage of that one. I think Cramer had a thrill up his leg this morning.
guess I tuned out since it was Sunday.
this doesn't seem nearly as bad as they projected though.
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NREC34
Footballguy
siffoin
Footballguy
Let's start by getting a few things corrected.culdeus said:
#1: I'm a ####### in general. This can be verified by family and friends.
#2: My take on the overall LT Market Trend has been consistent for almost 3 years. IT'S BULLISH. I post the LT chart almost every month on Twitter and the only change is the new monthly bar as time moves forward. The mini-crash in Oct-Dec was one where the Daily (ST Charts) were bearish (indicating a need for concern/hedging protection/plan development). However the LT Trend NEVER turned bearish (although it was mighty close).
#3: Aggressive followers of the LT Trend had an excellent opportunity to buy near the Dec low at support levels. These support levels were posted a number of weeks prior to the $SPY hitting those levels too ($SPY @ $240ish).
#4: If/When the market turns bearish in the future, it is my belief that the initial drop will be followed by a bounce back towards the old highs. Meaning - if/when the market ever turns bearish there are decent/high odds that you would be able to exit positions above that first punch to the face. Obviously - this requires some careful monitoring and a level of acceptance that "timing" is Not a Game of Perfect. (but the same holds true for buying at support in a bull market- you're not looking for perfection just trying to be "good enough/bold enough"). It is a process of LT market trends when they flip and might take a couple months+ to unfold.
#5: Where I sit right now...I think if/when the market turns bearish - that bear trend will likely last at a minimum of 9 months...more likely it will last 3-5 years. And there will be massive bullish spikes all the way to that eventual bottom.
#6: Black Swan event. I don't recall this but I'm not saying I didn't either. Remember I'm a #######. Personally, I believe that there are so many global risks out there that any one or combination of could result in a quick flip from Bull to Bear. My Black Swan nightmare is multiple SHTF events occurring at the same time.
#7: My personal observation of the LT Trend would suggest that - at a minimum - we are a few months from even being able to call a bear market. Is it possible that the highs are in? Yes. But we need to close below $SPY $275ish on a monthly chart before a LT Trend change will occur. And $275ish is a long way from here. That's why I'd say a few months of drift down would be the best and soonest Bear case. Again - my opinion would be a trend flip sometime in the late summer early fall. But understand- I'm NOT saying the trend WILL flip then...just that time frame would fit for a potential trend flip where we sit today.
#8: It's difficult for me to find much value in stocks these days. So the best case for "trading for ST gains" is momentum fliers. If you want my honest opinion - all of us should just be long the $SPY - set it and forget it until the trend changes.
#9: Follow up to #8. I can't quantify it for you...but to me it seems that the risk of new long positions might not be worth the potential reward. When $SPY was at $240ish in December I felt differently. To put it in laymans terms - generally speaking it seems like where we are at now best case is to risk $1 to make $.80. That's uncomfortable.
#10: Like always I reserve the right to change my mind. I think the LT chart posted should keep you safe enough to help determine market trend - not un-scarred - but safe enough. But remember if you check that chart out please do your own due diligence and not blindly follow the opinion of a #######. Good luck!
Twitter link to chart.
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
Thanks for that amazing reply. Regarding #1, don't sell your self short (funny for a stock thread?), there are bigger #######'s on these boards that never admit to it! I find your replies concise, data driven and not condescending. That's pretty refreshing!
Sand
Footballguy
Should be #1. Pure secular bull trend and there isn't much that's undervalued at the moment. Except maybe CVX, who hasn't recovered yet from their merger escapade and it looks like they'll pocket a nice 1B just for window shopping.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Had someone mention it as a value, chart looks like it could be but don’t know the full story either.
Capella
Footballguy
Bought more of this stuff. I'm pretty excited by what this might turn into.
Started positions in CRM and GLW today.
I got time.
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I’m straddling the fence on this. I don’t like Amazon going down but I’m not going to need any for college until next year. I’ve got a bunch of cash waiting so this pause isn’t really a bad thing. I just need to decide what I want to go long on.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
What about money I just want?
So, the question is is this a dip to buy into or a swoon to wait out for a while. My trigger is getting itchy - I think we bounce back from here.
Capella
Footballguy
Have to think their will be good news. He’s not looking for the market to crash (I don’t think
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Your portfolio will be smaller, but on the plus side, things are also going to cost you more money.Have to think their will be good news. He’s not looking for the market to crash (I don’t think
Even if it isn't a done deal tonight or tomorrow and we sell off, it's only a matter of time before it recovers. Best case scenario for the markets is Trump comes out tonight and says the tariffs are on hold.Have to think their will be good news. He’s not looking for the market to crash (I don’t think
