beef
Footballguy
@fantasycurse42 I like your thinking on DIS. I own none of it now, but will be tracking and looking to make a buy in.
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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
There are people posting their net worth and SS# in the 401k thread. I think you're good.
Sand
Footballguy
I have 105 shares, but I bought in at 17.
I did sell a large swath of CVX today. I see oil and oil companies wallowing down for quite a while with this. Bought some big chunks of PCI and IVV to replace. Once the dust settles a tad I'll buy another tranche of TMF and UPRO.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
TDOC!
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
And SQ!
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Do you think he has a live futures ticket on that podium?
Capella
Footballguy
imagine 5 years ago somebody telling you we were on the verge of an outbreak and Donald Trump was walking up to the stage to try and calm us.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I don't listen anymore. Saves time to assume he's lying about something rather than having to go find out.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
And don't bother with the no politics bs. I know. This is the party I'd prefer to be backing. I can't help it they've made it impossible.
shadrap
Footballguy
When was it ever 17? Holy mamma, nice pick.I have 105 shares, but I bought in at 17.
I did sell a large swath of CVX today. I see oil and oil companies wallowing down for quite a while with this. Bought some big chunks of PCI and IVV to replace. Once the dust settles a tad I'll buy another tranche of TMF and UPRO.
kudos.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
This appears straightforward and acknowledging there is a threat. Props to Trump for not downplaying, but this is no bueno.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I want to sell the futures with two hands right now
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Are you watching this press conference? “Companies need to get their pandemic plans in order”
JFC
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
If they never have to shut down a US-based park, maybe it looks good sooner than later. Anybody want to bet on that right now?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Sand
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
2008ish. Bought at 100 and it did a 7-1 split a bit after that. It actually went down to 80 (pre split) and I waffled on loading up the truck. Worst investing decision ever.
Losing Iger is about the same as losing Steve Jobs. IMO, of course.
GoBirds
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
matuski
Footballguy
Perhaps I misunderstood.
Are the Hong Kong and China versions not part of the US based company?
Re-reading it, I guess I see what he meant by that.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
They don't own majority interest in China or HK. Kinda mutes the impact. When US-based parks close, the short -term pain will get real imo.
D-Day
Footballguy
I own some DIS. The fear of the virus is building, not coming down. I wouldn't put money into DIS until after earnings and what I suspect to be lowered guidance for the next quarter. I'm letting the fear run for a couple of more weeks before moving more money into the market.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
I’d be shocked if that after hours holds up at all. The stock has been on a nice run already (up 41% this year) and revenue beat estimates by under 2%. That sure doesn’t seem like a 17% more pop. I have some stocks that got dragged down by the current sentiment that beat estimates by a good amount more.
Actually, SQ beat estimates way more and is up half as much after hours. I don’t trust after hours. I think AMZN’s previous quarter (not last one) had it up nicely after hours and the next day it ended up shaving off almost all the initial gains.
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I feel pretty good about it. Strong member growth. Bottom line expected loss of .33, came in at .26. Good guidance. Lots of people at death's door AND unable to leave the house. What more could you want? Might not hold completely, but I doubt it gives it all back.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Honestly—I thought the markets would suffer some short term pain because of the supply chain issues caused by this virus—but i think I overlooked some factors that could cause the market turmoil to last longer.
We know the virus has shocked supply chains but we do assume that at some point—the supply chains will be restored. With that said—while cutting rates might instill some confidence back in the market—that likely action won’t really speed up the backlogs in the supply chain.
Secondly—there is a very good chance that Europe falls into recession. Hypothetically—lets assume that this virus didn’t exist—but there was economic turmoil in Europe and Asia that caused many of the economies there to stagnate or fall into a recession. Based on that hypothetical—how many percentage points would you expect our markets to drop in reaction to that situation? I’d expect that drop to be pretty hefty. Just for some data—-France is the 6th biggest economy in the world and 8% of their gdp comes from tourism. Their finance minister said that tourism is down 30-40% and many of the people that are not traveling there are wealthy tourists from China that purchase luxury goods. Moving into Italy now—the 8th largest economy on the planet—the two provinces where coronavius is the most prevalent there account for 33% of Italys gdp. If you mix that in with the loss to tourism—Italy could very well fall into a recession.
Thirdly—we really haven’t seen the virus do much here in the US. If and when that happens—I’m not sure that is completely baked into the markets current pricing. Some could argue that the “fear” of this is baked in—and I wouldn’t fight against that position too hard.
Lastly—while I think the market has priced in the shock on the supply side of things—but has it (and have we) priced in the strong possibility that there will likely be a shock on the demand side of things too? It’s not like it’s easily assumable that people will just go back to their previous spending habits once this virus calms down. This virus could scare people into saving more—and it could delay or eliminate unnecessary purchases. I personally don’t think the shock on the demand side of things will be nearly as strong as the shock to the supply chains—but i do think that there will be a mild to moderate secondary shock to the markets after the initial supply side shock (which may or may not be fully complete yet).
In any case—I’m not trying to be pessimistic—I’m just trying to analyze whats been a very turbulent market as of late. As much as I’d love to see things stabilize and move back upwards very quickly—I’m not sure that will happen. I think we are looking at choppy waters for the short to medium term. With that said—I do think that investors that are looking at very long term investments might have a chance to do some bargain hunting in the next few weeks. Just my two cents that are completely based on gut instinct..
We know the virus has shocked supply chains but we do assume that at some point—the supply chains will be restored. With that said—while cutting rates might instill some confidence back in the market—that likely action won’t really speed up the backlogs in the supply chain.
Secondly—there is a very good chance that Europe falls into recession. Hypothetically—lets assume that this virus didn’t exist—but there was economic turmoil in Europe and Asia that caused many of the economies there to stagnate or fall into a recession. Based on that hypothetical—how many percentage points would you expect our markets to drop in reaction to that situation? I’d expect that drop to be pretty hefty. Just for some data—-France is the 6th biggest economy in the world and 8% of their gdp comes from tourism. Their finance minister said that tourism is down 30-40% and many of the people that are not traveling there are wealthy tourists from China that purchase luxury goods. Moving into Italy now—the 8th largest economy on the planet—the two provinces where coronavius is the most prevalent there account for 33% of Italys gdp. If you mix that in with the loss to tourism—Italy could very well fall into a recession.
Thirdly—we really haven’t seen the virus do much here in the US. If and when that happens—I’m not sure that is completely baked into the markets current pricing. Some could argue that the “fear” of this is baked in—and I wouldn’t fight against that position too hard.
Lastly—while I think the market has priced in the shock on the supply side of things—but has it (and have we) priced in the strong possibility that there will likely be a shock on the demand side of things too? It’s not like it’s easily assumable that people will just go back to their previous spending habits once this virus calms down. This virus could scare people into saving more—and it could delay or eliminate unnecessary purchases. I personally don’t think the shock on the demand side of things will be nearly as strong as the shock to the supply chains—but i do think that there will be a mild to moderate secondary shock to the markets after the initial supply side shock (which may or may not be fully complete yet).
In any case—I’m not trying to be pessimistic—I’m just trying to analyze whats been a very turbulent market as of late. As much as I’d love to see things stabilize and move back upwards very quickly—I’m not sure that will happen. I think we are looking at choppy waters for the short to medium term. With that said—I do think that investors that are looking at very long term investments might have a chance to do some bargain hunting in the next few weeks. Just my two cents that are completely based on gut instinct..
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Disney is one of my favorite companies, they’ll be just fine, but the whole point of owning stocks is buying low and selling high. Disney is a huge risk right now imo. I mean before we even get to macro stuff, Iger is no longer CEO, that’s already an unknown. Add in a remote chance of a pandemic and I’ll buy a lot more of this at a lower price.
To me, I get the sense there is legitimate fear right now. Clusters popping up all over the globe, and growing at a fairly aggressive clip.
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Futures down almost 100bp.
European stocks down 200bp.
European stocks down 200bp.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Do you take the LIRR into Manhattan? Have you considered driving? Garage in my office is $600 for an SUV, but honestly, I think that’s my preference for now over the subway or taxi.
Warrior
Footballguy
That's why trying to time the market is so foolish. You'll never know when to put it in and you'll likely completely miss the mark.
I put half my cash reserves to work recently (AAPL, AMZN, XOM, BRK B, MRK in case you’re wondering) and holding the other half back. Just spitballing here, but another 10% drop would probably put that cash in play so, what, Dow below 25K and I’m all in? Seems reasonable to me. I own some SPY puts as a hedge and some MRNA and GILD so I’m friskier than I otherwise might be.
Miss the bottom sure, but I read a good article about always having cash on hand as 20% dips in the market can be really common. 25% cash is a little much unless you did it last Thursday. I was at about 10% cash pre dip, probably closer to 12-15% cash now. I see this going to get to a 15-20% drop so when I see some of watch list getting around there, I’ll move that back in.
That said, there’s the nice caveat that my wife and I are maxing out our 401ks so taking advantages of dips will happen automatically anyway. 10-15 years from retirement fo me so stockpiling as much as possible. I’ll definitely have a more conservative approach when the income goes away.
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Otis
Footballguy
You mean because of Coronavirus? Yes I take the LIRR and subway every day. As usual it’s nasty and packed with unwashed strangers. But I can’t imagine dealing with the traffic every day, and I wouldn’t want to lose the 3 hours round trip e-mail/reading/work time while driving. If it got that bad, I’d get a car service each day. Probably $200 each way, oof (and if this became a real thing, hell, you can bet those prices would escalate fast).
Otis
Footballguy
So glad my wife and I work from home. We do travel some, her more than me so that might slow down.
One of my best stocks since the dip has been ZM. Corona virus is a boon for them.
Buttonhook
Footballguy
I know this is the FBG, so definitely a dumb question, but Uber not an option?
Prices like that for a one-way go up much more, lots of people might be looking to switch their day jobs.
If we drop from here, next stop 200 day MAs. If we go below that, look out. Could get a dead cat bounce there. We are ripe for one right now. I would guess that any big % day up will be sold. This is going to take time to come back.
Could Buffet get his 50% drop that he said is possible? There is a gem in Buffett’s annual letter, which was released over the weekend, that nobody is talking about. He writes: “Anything can happen to stock prices tomorrow. Occasionally, there will be major drops in the market, perhaps of 50% magnitude or even greater.” That would be nuts.
Looking at the biggest days in the S&P, most come as dead cat bounces. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index
S&P: 2008-10-13 1,003.35 +104.14 +11.58%
followed by
S&P: 2008-10-15 907.84 −90.17 −9.04%
FED has no ammo to stop this because the virus is immune to their moves.
Could Buffet get his 50% drop that he said is possible? There is a gem in Buffett’s annual letter, which was released over the weekend, that nobody is talking about. He writes: “Anything can happen to stock prices tomorrow. Occasionally, there will be major drops in the market, perhaps of 50% magnitude or even greater.” That would be nuts.
Looking at the biggest days in the S&P, most come as dead cat bounces. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index
S&P: 2008-10-13 1,003.35 +104.14 +11.58%
followed by
S&P: 2008-10-15 907.84 −90.17 −9.04%
FED has no ammo to stop this because the virus is immune to their moves.
Risky in a bull market. Been there done that. However in this selloff, step away for even a day and you are instantly outperforming the markets for the year. Then it all comes down to how greedy you want to get.
Ole Mom & Pop got suckered in again by the way.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/s-p-500-s-5-rout-hammers-mom-and-pop-investors-who-ve-piled-in
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/s-p-500-s-5-rout-hammers-mom-and-pop-investors-who-ve-piled-in
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I'm no financial analyst---but I posted this several hours ago. While I do think that in the long term the markets will work their way back up (assuming that Trump wins)--I do think there are lots of factors in the short to medium term that could effect the markets and volality. I want to reiterate that this was just some spitballing and is nothing more than an opinion.
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/673466-stock-thread/?do=findComment&comment=22528006
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It’s sticking although definitely overvalued. It’s up 60% this year. SMH. I almost bought some at $95 a couple weeks ago. Should have bought it last year.
ZM doing the same. Anything related to keeping people from traveling is doing well. Everything else is getting bludgeoned. Seeing a lot of prices I like now but seems like it’s not going to stop soon.
culdeus
Footballguy
I'm dubious of the methodology here.
They are taking individual stocks being popular as a proxy for mom/pop investors, then extrapolating that?
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siffoin
Footballguy
gosh darnit people. I feel like the ####### Dark Sky App...telling you when it's going to rain, how much it's going to rain and when the rain is likely to stop. And y'all are like..."no one can predict the weather" or " I'm not going to look outside but it's been raining so I guess right now it's sunny"
culdeus
Footballguy
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Contemplating moving everything including 401K to cash. Coca Cola is warning of a Diet Coke shortage because they can't get the sweetener from China. #### is real and ain't getting better.
